Solar Forcing in Our Climatic and Atmospheric Dynamics. Location, Location, Location (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)


Solar Forcing in Our Climatic and Atmospheric Dynamics. Location, Location, Location (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)

(updated 23 Sept 2016 11:51 UTC 9:54, Local time (GMT+2) Spain 11:54AM. Reordering of contents, Comments on discussion and added imagery on land cover alterations and energy waste, and video on the motion and relative size of Earth)

Solar forcing is a component which brings many questions in our climatic assessments and synergistic interactions. And wherever it appears, it brings a very much alive discussion.

I have looked at the Solar component  in previous publications creating a category for it. So, based on my work through the line of research published in this blog I will try to condense all my research in one unifying point of view over this particular component.

Previous work published in the present line of research on Solar Activity.

The most relevant work published previously in this blog, specifically addressing the Solar component, can be found in the following links (also comments section for each of them):

As part of this piece I discussed aspects Connecting climate changes with solar variations throughout historical research.

As part of this piece I discussed aspects considering the Sun´s spot activity seen since 2008.

As part of this piece I discussed aspects considering “Solar activity” and “Human transformation” exerting forces upon the global system independently one from another.

As part of this piece I discussed aspects considering the component of “time” and “space” conditioning the impact from Human development and the oscillations considered in atmospheric circulation such as PDO, OA, AMO and Solar activity. In one hand is the time rate at which changes take place. How abrupt are those changes. And in other hand it is space, how many factors coexist in location at the same time.

As part of this piece I discussed aspects considering that what we consider “too small to matter” and “big enough”, are just considerations of our limitations. Many of us doing research over environmental transformations, atmospheric dynamics and climatic drifts are looking at the same images. However, we not all are applying the same perspectives and getting the same interpretations. Could we see different things in a different way by just opening our perspective to new positions as observers?

As part of this piece I discussed aspects considering the interrelation between biotic and none biotic components in the evolution of our ecosystem through time.

As part of this piece I discussed aspects considering the magnitudes required to cause a drift in climatic processes.

On those publications I discussed aspects considering the impact of Human developments in energy flows sustaining and/or creating an environment.

Solar Forcing in Our Climatic and Atmospheric Dynamics. Location, Location, Location

My definition of Climate drift is, the deviation from equilibrium of the conditions allowing the perpetuation of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in a micro and macro ecosystem. This situation can be due to changes in any component of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes can be either a change in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality or rates in the flows of energy pre-established OR/AND the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components/forces and energy sinks or sources in any part of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance.

I understand the resultant climate on any planet as the interaction between elements in the macro and micro scale (planetary aspects, spacial alignments and configurations) as well as the interaction between external and internal forcing and their sources.

It is my believe that through time, those change beyond cycles. Some cycles involved recover to any position in time and some others fail to recover to its original singularly identified configuration.

Some events to repeat require to merge multiple variables in such a way that firstly; the number and type of variables have to be the same number and type in a specific moment in time, but also, with the same magnitude and interact in the same sequence as to replicate a previous scenario in time named part of a cycle.

With the question of time and cycles we are subjected to scales of time restricted by our data sets and capacity to identify sources of forcing and the effect derived from them.

In the question of Solar’s effect over Earth climatic system, I am able to identify the Sun as a source of a force interacting with it. And I reckon that its magnitude makes it the main source of energy fuelling the energy flows sustaining the dynamics involved.

What I am concern is about the state of the dynamic systems which solar activity is fuelling.

I have used the simile of cooking in my assessments previously and I believe that it serves to make a point. The variations in the energy being applied to cook are dominant over what happens in the pot to an extent defined entirely by what you have inside the pot. If you have oil you will fry your food. If you have water or any other GHG you will boil it. If you have dry food or if you have food containing water, …

For the same amount of energy the output changes completely by the molecular composition of the matter transferring the energy being supplied as well as it also depends on the structure of the body absorbing the energy.

From my point of view, Solar activity fails to explain one particularity relevant in the actual state of our climatic dynamics.

Under solar minima we have an increase of temperature anomalies in different locations around the planet including the Arctic.

The magnitude of the Solar influence is always explained having an impact within a Steffan-Boltzmann like stratification. Nowadays, the variations in temperature we see are subjected to zonifications which break the normalized concept of latitude vs Solar angle.

The amount of energy required to bring this thermal energy through locations can only be explained by the composition of the mass of air carrying it and the alteration in the atmospheric dynamics holding a previously stable compartmentalization in latitude and altitude.

In other words, I believe that we are facing an increase in the atmospheric mixing ratio due to a weakening in the stratification previously seen.

This situation might not resemble any previous period since those previous periods had a zonification with the expansion/restriction of cold areas within latitudinal margins. This time, that is not happening.

And I believe that it is related with the state of the “body” being “cooked”.

Through paleo time scales, there has been a significant change in the properties of the body receiving the energy from he Sun, in Albedo, evapotranspiration rates and location, land cover… and configuration of energy flows absorbing, re-emitting, transferring or liberating energy.

I think that the issue here is not the variations in the giving side but in the receiving one.

The Earth is too small to suffer the effect of the Sun in some areas more than in others for the same latitude.

Our data, analyses and imagery are made from conceptualizations which bring many biases, like images which repeatedly show our planet bigger than what it really is:

seasons.nasa

Also, our data analyses are subjected to our own sensory limitations and anthropogenic projections in order to identify patterns. Scientists have been aware of this and the attitude adopted as response has been to rely on building data sets built on time series and create  algorithms to identify patterns. So scientists have become passive surrogates playing the role of monitoring the quality of the data sets being built and the generation of algorithms looking for statistical correlations leaving the working load of thinking to “less humanized” and “limited” methods. All that comes with a huge risk of obviating the obvious when our “methods” do not recognise it. (See more discussion The scope of Environmental Science and scientific thought. From Thought-driven to Data-driven, from Critical Thinking to Data Management. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla))

In a previous publication I discussed the outcome from a new report issued by the National Research Council (NRC), “The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth’s Climate,” (2012) in which it is pointed out that the variations in Solar activity can strongly affect the chemistry and thermal structure of the upper atmosphere.

Following their assessment, it seems to be illogical and lacking coherence to obviate the impact from changes in composition in the atmosphere receiving the effect from Solar activity over the chemistry and thermal structure of the upper atmosphere through the solar cycles.

net-dswrf-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd-sept-2016

3d-net-dswrf-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd-sept-2016

But also, our data analyses are subjected to our own perspective from where we tend to adopt a tunnel vision when applying patterns of though:

The present conditions 22 Sept 2016 of the NH Polar Jet Stream show to keep the wobbly pattern seen in previous years, and it seems to be the new “normal” in today’s atmospheric dynamics.

Under a period of minima solar activity we should expect to have colder conditions at the Poles. Under such scenario, the contrast in temperature between record temperatures at Mid-Latitudes and colder than normal Polar masses or air, would increase, generating a stronger Polar Jet Stream. However, what we see is that the conditions in the Arctic circulation, under a solar minima, are not cold enough to generate such contrast strong enough to hold rigid the position of the Jet Stream.

gfs-nh-polar-jet-stream-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd-22-sept-init

Such heterogeneous distribution in the atmospheric distribution of cold and warm masses of air follow principles described by thermodynamic laws driving thermal transference dependent on the composition of the fluid absorbing, holding and releasing the energy received. All that has been discussed in previous publications like the following:

All the mechanisms explaining the current atmospheric dynamics and the implications derived from them, for ecosystems and weather behaviour, have been also discussed previously in this blog in different publications.

And my conclusion is that there is an interference from human activities creating a Climate drift since those activities change the composition of the phases part of the environment,

  • solid (land cover through albedo and changes in evapotranspiration rates due to biotic disruptions on wild distributions),
  • the liquid phase through alterations over the water cycles, distribution of water bodies, and humidity of soils as well as affecting circulation patterns due to coastal deterioration and deformation, but also, indirectly due to alterations in the composition of the inert and biotic matter in the Oceans due to pollution and modifications in acidification and salinity related with atmospheric composition and thermal properties.
  • and gaseous phase due to alterations in the composition of the atmosphere due to GHGs as well as aerosols, altogether affecting its thermodynamic behaviour.

The deviation from equilibrium of those conditions disrupt the perpetuation of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in the micro and macro ecosystem.

Solar activity anthropogenic change by Diego FdezSevillaThis situation is due to changes in all components of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes show to be combining effect from changes in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality and rates in the flows of energy pre-established as the consequence of the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components, forces and sources of energy in all parts of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance, as much as by the annihilation of previously established sinks of energy as the only natural resource against perturbation in the energy flows.

Land use change Compilation by Diego FdezSevilla Publication Domesticating Nature

Land use change through time.

waste-us-energy-usage-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

Energy Waste in EEUU

 

The whole picture

All the publications in this blog address those issues creating an image made by combining all pieces which they represent. Since I am not a member of an institution I can not publish them in peer review journals so I use this opportunity to share my work and seek open and public review. Any feedback is also welcome at my email: d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com

Also, a fellow blogger has published a piece on this debate covering this aspect, and I believe that it is worthy to read it if you want to see more  points of view:

“Impact of the ~ 2400 yr solar cycle on climate and human societies” by Javier at “Climate etc” hosted by Judith Curry. Link here.

I don´t want to push my research from my blog into other’s walls and groups in other platforms like LinkedIn, so I share it here and you choose what to do with it. If you want my participation elsewhere please point me out the location.

Some relevant publications in my line of research are the following, but all publications in chronological order can be found at the category Framework and timeline:


______________________________________

Since the principles behind my approach has not been verified by previous peer reviewed research The aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. So any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time of at least a month from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found refuting the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.

In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will help me in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.

PerspectiveSince October 2013 I have been publishing pieces of research studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.

Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License,  WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.

More assessments presenting chronologically the line of research published in this blog can be accessed in the category Framework and Timeline.

For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out):

Posted in Energy Balance, Filling in, Solar activity | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)


Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)

In this publication I want to link the present atmospheric conditions over Europe with those addressed in previous publications from past years. The main aim of this is to highlight the persistence of a pattern which I believe is relevant to be considered in the debate on atmospheric dynamics and climatic drifts.

In order to strengthen the continuity of my research I want to unify those publications sharing similar assessments so they verify each other when placed side by side.

From previous publication:

“My assessments point to conclude that the mixing ratio between masses of air being warmed up at equatorial and mid-latitudes has increased altering the stratification of the atmosphere in its 3 dimensions.

As a result, some atmospheric events become more erratic in their behaviour and seasons are dominated by localised masses of air instead of the Solar angle of radiation linked with the position and tilt of the Earth.”

That would explain why locations in Northern latitudes might see warmer conditions than those in the south. Or even high contrasts between locations in the same latitude between west and east as we have seen at North America.

From previous publication:

The possibility of facing a weakening Jet Stream due to a decrease in the Thermal contrast between the Subtropical and Polar atmospheric regions has created scenarios in which the variations in meteorological conditions for a particular location can come without a transition. One week is freezing cold and the next pretty warm. How can that happen?

The large north-south waves in the jet stream (Rossby waves) are occurring more frequently and may be increasing in amplitude. Larger waves can cause cool air to be pushed toward the equator when the waves dip to low latitudes, and warm air to be pushed toward the poles when the waves swing back. For areas on the ground below these waves, that translates into wild and unseasonable temperature extremes, sometimes called “weather whiplash.”

Such scenario can be seen nowadays when we look at the graphic representations created to simulate the prediction for the Western European meteorological conditions in the period between the 3th of March and the 14th of March 2015.

Here I have created a video with the sequence of images generated for this period so you can appreciate the forecast describing the behaviour of the phase/limit where both masses of air get in contact and how it looks like a fluid releasing “drops of weather”.

The implications raising from such type of atmospheric behaviour are yet to be fully understood. To begin with, the possibility of having sudden intrusions of masses of air inducing extreme changes in meteorological variables might affect the life cycle of the biota since the most of it, plants and animals, follows changes on Temp and Humidity suffering behavioural, hormonal and physiological alterations. Also it must be considered the rapid respond to those variables from species with a quick metabolism. Many of which, insects and fungi, might suffer blooming rates of growth coinciding with a vulnerable stage in the development of other species like crops and wild plants. This scenario opens questions which I believe are worthy to be included in a debate about “the possibility of its increasing frequency in the near future”, also discussed in previous posts  (UPGRADED 11 March2015) Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla.)

From previous publication:

The wobbliness of the North Hemispheric Polar Jet Stream made the news in 2013/14 as the result of a broken Polar Vortex, dropping masses of cold air at mid-latitudes, bringing winter weather all along their paths. In 2014/15 the Jet Stream kept wobbling, however this time, without a persistent Polar Vortex broken. I called them drops of weather and discussed the significance of their formation and the implications.

We are at the transition from Summer to Winter 2015/16. At the Iberian peninsula, even at Canary Islands and through the Mediterranean sea, we have started to see such drops of weather to appear once again. The sequence between cold and warm periods is creating wide contrasts in temperature. It seems that it is starting to rain drops of winter and that this must be the new Autumn to come.

In the following video I present an animation with images taken from satellite (Eumetsat Airmass) between the 20th Oct 2015 and 9 Nov 2015 showing the behaviour of the Jet Stream and the recent masses of cold air moving at Mid Latitudes. I also gathered some images showing the forecast built from GFS model for pressure at 500mb and temperature showing the expected behaviour of the Jet Stream from 9th Nov to 20th Nov. In total, between observation and forecast, there is a 30 days period.

From previous publication:

Previous assessments in this blog over the North hemisphere have discussed dynamics which seem to describe a process in expansion from mid-latitudes. With this process there has been also a discussion over the associated changes in seasonality.

Those atmospheric dynamics seem to keep happening describing a similar pattern. Heat moves up in latitude, as seen through Europe, generating the highest records in the last years, with and without El Niño conditions.

2016 July 18 Max temp Diego Fdez-Sevilla

18 July 2016 Max Temp Iberian Peninsula South Europe

Present conditions September 2016

The pattern described by the atmospheric dynamics assessed through the line of research published in this blog foresees abrupt changes in temperature, in short periods of time, due to the enhanced mobility of masses of air through the atmosphere.

Accordingly, on the 4th of September 2016 the South of Europe saw a sudden increase in temperature carried by an African mass of air reaching record maximas:

2016sept-06-maximum-temperatures-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

Max Temperature 06 September 2016. Several warnings were issued due to high temperatures.

Just 7 days later, on 13th and 14th September 2016, a cold mass of air has dropped from higher latitudes bringing the opposite trend in temperatures (and associated weather events), but with the similar steep slope.

2016sept13-variation-in-maxima-temp-from-previous-day-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd2016sept14-variation-in-maxima-temp-from-previous-day-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

Meanwhile, as Spain is taking the cold blast, at higher latitudes in equal longitude, UK reaches the maximum temperature of the year.

  • 13 September 2016. Hot weather warning as temperatures reach a record-breaking 32C at Heathrow. By Sarah Knapton and Lydia Willgress. telegraph.co.uk/news

indice  Tuesday was the hottest day of the year so far, the Met Office has confirmed, as temperatures rocketed past 34C (93F). A temperature of 34.4C was recorded at Gravesend in Kent, making it the hottest September day since 1911. Heathrow and Kew Gardens followed as they both recorded temperatures of 32.8C at lunchtime.

Large parts of England were placed on heatwave alert, the first time Public Health England has ever issued a warning in September, with hot and humid weather forecast for the next few days. Heading into Wednesday the Met Office said it would be a drier day across the country, with another warm day expected in the South East – where the mercury could reach into the low 20s or up to 30C (86F). However, there was a striking North/South divide as parts of northern England and Scotland suffered bad flooding.

Atmospheric Patterns

The pattern in atmospheric dynamics seen in the present days over Europe are not new:

From previous publication:

From previous publication:

I believe that the most visual representation of having the atmosphere increasing its thermal conductivity would be seen throughout the wobbling state of the Polar Jet Stream. As part of my research since 2013 I have been following-up the state of the Polar Jet Stream. This is the latest animation that I have made over the period February 2016 at the Western Europe-East Atlantic.

Actual Pattern

The graphical representation of the numerical model GFS describes the movement of masses of air at 500mb showing the intrusion of cold masses of air into Southern latitudes and warm masses of air into Northern latitudes.

europe-gfs-from-10sept-2016-temp500mb

GFS forecast on Heights and temp variations at 500mb starting Sept 10th to 16th

The satellite images from Eumetsat allow us to see the motion of the masses of air and their temperature moving over Europe replicating the same similar pattern seen and discussed through this blog in the recent years.

drops-of-weather-sept-2016-diegto-fdez-sevilla-phd

This pattern “carries” warm air towards high latitudes, being incorporated into Arctic circulation, and “pushes” cold air out of its way coming into lower latitudes.

gwl_composite_eu-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd-www_diegofdezsevilla_wordpress_com h500_slp_eu-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd-www_diegofdezsevilla_wordpress_com

gfs-t2_anom_2016-09-10

gfs-preciitable-water-2016-sept-10-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

 

Discussion

Based on what it has been discussed in previous assessments over recent atmospheric developments the mixing ratio is increasing and, even though I believe that it is not going to follow the same pattern through time, at the moment, it seems foreseeable.

In a previous publications in this blog I pointed out already that it is time to be vigilant about seeing similarities on what is happening in recent years. Not based on waiting for big magnitudes to be measured behind things happening but also based on which magnitudes have to be in place in order for things to not happen as well as the mere existence of “mild” features and patterns repeating in time and location.

In the recent months we have seen already some atmospheric events which, in isolation, they only represent the broad range of variability that our environment can generate.

We can observe what type of atmospheric events have happened before and compare with those which are happening now.  Like looking at tree rings in order to identify similarities throughout time in biological productivity, we might see that similar events have happened before. So, maybe, there is nothing new on today’s climate that it has not occurred before. However, how many trees are still alive old enough for us to study? What is the location and the level of performance for those trees? You might find trees showing past periods of similar biological productivity linked to similar temperatures and yet, I believe that it is of as much interest to look at the similarities comparing through time how many of those trees keep populating their natural ecosystems and how many ecosystems maintain their characteristics stable enough for those trees to survive.

Similarly with this idea, atmospheric events happening that have not happened in a previous “significant” period of time seem to start becoming the “trees” which define the “forest” that our understanding is trying to see. Like the tale of the “boiling frog”, we are at risk of getting our capacity for understanding “cooked” by being submerged in a forest of “big data”.

I believe that it would be important to not overlook the limitations carried within the conceptualization of our climate from being built upon numerical data. Models based on past records can only give outcomes which replicate the principles applied to build the mathematical interpretation of those past events. Therefore, like a 2D model only give predictions within the two dimensions being considered, mathematical models applied in climatic evolution, based on past data, have the limitations of transmitting into their outcomes the level of uncertainty which already carries the limited understanding on the factors and synergies considered to create the model. The perception of that every natural event is the result of inertial momentum implies the assumption of linearity for any outcome within 2D (quantity vs time). This approach restrict the capacity to predict only movements in the dimensions which have been identified as related, without considering the existence of an unidentified “third Z axis” (or more). Such kind set of mind has narrowed the interpretation of our climate to data applied to define the existence of “anomalies” based on “increase/decrease” over time. This is a two dimensional set of mind prepare to only “see” correlations in 2D. Some correlations might define one plane, some others might define other planes, and there would be a weak correlation between events and parameters defining different planes of a multidimensional environment. If our data is so “big” and “uncharacterised” that we can not see the relation between the planes describing our climate we may need to ultimately start from understanding the significance behind the singularity of each individual event in order to identify the plane described just by their existence.

When it becomes difficult to characterise the significance and relations between large amounts of data, trying to describe the behaviour of a “whole”, it should not be overlooked the significance of how many variables have to come together for each single event to develop and how many variables have to “not happen” in order for the event to develop.

As part of the discussion I pointed out the little attention given to see the development of three tropical lows at the same time and in the same location over the Pacific with and without El Niño conditions:

In 2014

2014 Trio Low P PacificIn 2015

2015 Trio Low P PacificOn July 18th, 2016:

Lows Pacific July 2016 Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD

Once again, on the 30th August 2016:

lows-pacific-30-aug-2016-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

All the small things

All the small things which are happening under the radar of major scientific attention is playing a role in a game which involves the atmospheric circulation at global scale. Not only this pattern “carries” warm air towards high latitudes, but also into higher latitudes. As a result we see how warm masses of air are “pushing” masses of cold air out of its way, coming into lower latitudes and altitudes:

And also

10hPa Temp Diego Fdez-Sevilla

Sudden Stratospheric Warming NH.

Europe Forecast Temp 500 Diego Fdez-Sevilla

NH Polar Jet Stream behaviour

Global Hemispheric Inter-Arctic Connectivity

All the patterns observed and discussed through the publications shared over the period of three years point to a interconnection between Atlantic and Pacific basins through the Arctic thanks to the wobbly Polar Jet Stream. Such mechanism generates synchronism between weather events seeing over both basins. Such eventuality was already discussed over previous publications and shows to keep happening through 2016.

700hpa-temp_wind-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd-www_diegofdezsevilla_wordpress_com

 Conclusions

As I said in the last publication:

“My assessments point to conclude that the mixing ratio between masses of air being warmed up at equatorial and mid-latitudes has increased altering the stratification of the atmosphere in its 3 dimensions.

As a result, some atmospheric events become more erratic in their behaviour and seasons are dominated by localised masses of air instead of the Solar angle of radiation linked with the position and tilt of the Earth.”

That is why locations in Northern latitudes might see warmer conditions than those in the south. Or even high contrasts between locations in the same latitude as we saw between west and east North America.

Such conclusive assessment, based on observations and analyses, serves as a progression pre-verifying the mechanisms purposed in the theory published in this blog in 2014 and following publications such as:

(update 15 Sept 2016)

Also, the present weather patterns have associated risks threatening the stability of our biological ecosystems, as it has been discussed in previous publications. This issue goes to crops and ecosystems in general. Furthermore, it also touches the synergistic interaction existent between biological processes and the thermodynamic ones, due to changes in populations changing land cover and albedo, turbulence, evapotranspiration rates, soil degradation and soil loss by water weathering, as well as bio processes involved in cloud formation and rain rates. I would like to suggest readings from previous posts addressing those aspects. There is also an entire category containing posts addressing synergies between atmosphere dynamics and “Biological productivity”, as it is called.

Posts such as:

and

(end update 15 Sept 2016)

Altogether, the body of work which represents the line of research presented in this blog is composed by 165 pieces, covering data analyses and conceptual discussions. All those different discussions and assessments presented here build together a single concept. The format applied is the result of making a big effort trying to apply simplistic approaches with the aim to allow a multidisciplinary access. Since the topics treated in my publications have implications for many sectors in the academic and not academic world, with the aim of allowing my research for open review there is also the objective of allowing access to a multisectorial and multidisciplinary audience sharing interest.

Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.

For a more profound discussion over my assessments and analyses as well as constructive feedback, please use my email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com.

My agenda is simple, I am in transition looking for either funding to grow the research published in this blog or for a job position in any field in which my assets are valued. Behind my research there nothing more, nothing else than to showcase my capabilities doing what I like, research. I am a methodologist. I don´t look at the the color of the result obtained, only at the suitability of the method and the coherence of the result. As I have said before, if I am wrong on my assessments and conclusions, it will be better for all, and my work would showcase my capabilities anyway. A CV shines the goals obtained by anyone, but by publishing here my research, I expose myself and my work to public judgement. There is a difference between being naive and raw. If you see the difference you will understand better my work and my personal position.

______________________________________

The aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. So any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time of at least a month from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found refuting the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.

In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will help me in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.

PerspectiveSince October 2013 I have been studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.

Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License,  WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.

More assessments presenting chronologically the line of research published in this blog can be accessed in the category Framework and Timeline.

For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out):

Posted in Aerosols, Biological productivity, Cultural Cognition, Energy Balance, Environmental Resilience, Extreme climatic events, Filling in, Finding out, Influence of Continentality, Inland Water Bodies and Water Cycle, Open discussions, Polar vortex and Jet Stream, Water vapour | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

In Climate, Too Many Strange Things Are Happening (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)


In Climate, Too Many Strange Things Are Happening (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)

(updated 7 Sept 2016 with the incorporation of Figures showing the present state of the system in order to be compared with those assessments presented throughout the line of research published in this blog)

A strange thing happened in the stratosphere. September 2, 2016 by Patrick Lynch. phys.org

This disruption to the wind pattern – called the “quasi-biennial oscillation” – did not have any immediate impact on weather or climate as we experience it on Earth’s surface. But it does raise interesting questions for the NASA scientists who observed it: If a pattern holds for six decades and then suddenly changes, what caused that to happen? Will it happen again? What effects might it have?

“The quasi-biennial oscillation is the stratosphere’s Old Faithful,” said Paul Newman, Chief Scientist for Earth Sciences at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, and lead author on a new paper about the event published online in Geophysical Research Letters. “If Old Faithful stopped for a day, you’d begin to wonder about what was happening under the ground.”

Winds in the tropical stratosphere, an atmospheric layer that extends from about 10 to 30 miles above Earth’s surface, circulate the planet in alternating easterly and westerly directions over roughly a two-year period. Westerly winds develop at the top of the stratosphere, and gradually descend to the bottom, about 10 miles above the surface while at the same time being replaced by a layer of easterly winds above them. In turn, the easterlies descend and are replaced by westerlies.

This pattern repeats every 28 months. In the 1960s scientists coined it the “quasi-biennial oscillation.” The record of these measurements, made by weather balloons released in the tropics at various points around the globe, dates to 1953.

The pattern never changed – until late 2015. As the year came to a close, winds from the west neared the end of their typical descent. The regular pattern held that weaker easterly winds would soon replace them. But then the westerlies appeared to move upwards and block the downward movement of the easterlies. This new held for nearly half a year, and by July 2016 the old regime seemed to resume.

“It’s really interesting when nature throws us a curveball,” Newman said.

The quasi-biennial oscillation has a wide influence on stratospheric conditions. The amount of ozone at the equator changes by 10 percent between the peaks of the easterly and westerly phases, while the oscillation also has an impact on levels of polar ozone depletion.

With this disruption now documented, Newman and colleagues are currently focused on studying both its causes and potential implications. They have two hypotheses for what could have triggered it – the particularly strong El Niño in 2015-16 or the long-term trend of rising global temperatures. Newman said the scientists are conducting further research now to figure out if the event was a “black swan,” a once-in-a-generation event, or a “canary in the coal mine,” a shift with unforeseen circumstances, caused by climate change.

Searching for feedback everywhere

I hope that you have some time to look at some of my publications and share your thoughts.

I believe that they contain meaningful insides pointing to realistic scenarios involved in potential shifts over atmospheric dynamics driving climatic shifts.

I understand climate drift as the deviation from equilibrium of the conditions allowing the perpetuation of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in a micro and macro ecosystem. This situation can be due to changes in any component of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes can be either a change in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality or rates in the flows of energy pre-established OR/AND the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components/forces and energy sinks or sources in any part of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance.

Based on such approach, I have developed a line of research which foresee episodes linked with the reduction of contrasts in atmospheric energy pools at different locations in altitude and latitude. Such scenario would come from the incorporation of energy in the atmosphere through water vapour thanks to positive feedbacks from GHGs and Aerosols acting as “Velcro”. Also land-use plays a role by the synergistic interactions existent between soil conditions, land cover and biotic processes interacting with albedo, water cycles and biotic components involved in cloud formation.

All those processes combined drive wind shears, which in turn dominate atmospheric circulation in altitude, longitude and latitude.

I believe that potentially, the reduction in the directionality and stall of wind shear at stratospheric levels comes from a dynamic being built from the bottom up. As I believe it has been the condition of the Polar Vortex over the North Pole in the recent years.

This summer 2016 has seen a constant incorporation of warm masses of air in altitude over India. My assessments point to concluding that the mixing ratio between masses of air being warmed up at equatorial and mid-latitudes has increased altering the stratification of the atmosphere in its 3 dimensions.

As a result, some atmospheric events become more erratic in their behaviour and seasons are dominated by localised masses of air instead of the Solar angle of radiation linked with the position and tilt of the Earth.

gefs-2m-temp-anomaly-c-from-6-sept-2016-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

GEFS ensemble 2m temp anomaly forecast from 6-sept-2016. Baseline 1981-2010

gfs-arctic-t2-anom-2016-09-06-base-line-1979-2000-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

GFS 2m temp anomaly forecast from 6-sept-2016. Baseline 1979-2000

The major indication of this scenario would be seen in the behaviour of the North Polar Jet Stream. This feature is the one with more visual impact representing the stratification of the atmosphere in latitude isolating cold masses of air in the Arctic circulation from those in Mid Latitudes. Its wobbly behaviour in the recent years indicates a reduction in the thermal contrast between Arctic circulation and Mid-Latitudes. But furthermore, not only the configuration of the North Polar jet Stream has lost its rigid conditions in latitude, but also in altitude suffering the influence of cyclonic events reaching as high as 250 hPa.

gefs-250-mb-wind-from-6-sept-2016-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

GEFS ensemble 250mb Wind speed/Streamlines forecast from 6-sept-2016

gfs-arctic-ws250-2016-09-06-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

GFS 250mb Wind speed/Streamlines forecast from 6-sept-2016

The scenario which my assessments describe is not verifiable by peer review articles since some of my assessments have not been addressed by the scientific community. So I would appreciate if you could incorporate your inside knowledge giving me some feedback in order to contrast my position with your assessments.

Temp Anomalies Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD

Last 90 days time series of temperature for various locations in western Europe. Regions shaded red show above-normal temperatures; regions shaded blue show below-normal temperatures. Last day 3 Sept 2016. Data NOAA/NCEP. Compilation by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

______________________________________

The aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. So any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time of at least a month from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found refuting the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.

In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will help me in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.

PerspectiveSince October 2013 I have been studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.

Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License,  WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.

More assessments presenting chronologically the line of research published in this blog can be accessed in the category Framework and Timeline.

For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out):

Posted in Aerosols, Air, Biological productivity, Energy Balance, Environmental Resilience, Extreme climatic events, Filling in, Finding out, Influence of Continentality, Inland Water Bodies and Water Cycle, Polar vortex and Jet Stream, Solar activity, Water vapour | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Summer is what summer brings (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)


Summer is what summer brings (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)

Summer is everything that summer brings. And as the summer keeps coming with heat waves, fires keep finding the perfect environment also.

04 September 2016. Heatwave as summer sultriness returns to Spain.   euroweeklynews.com

THE arrival of September may have brought slightly cooler temperatures to southern Spain, but the baking heat has now returned in earnest.

A high of 33°C was recorded in Malaga City on Sunday, September 4, while inland temperatures reached a scorching 36°C.

Even more heat is expected on Monday, with a yellow alert having been issued for Malaga province between 2pm and 8pm.

The comarcas of Ronda and Antequera are set to swelter as temperatures reach 38°C, and the oven-like conditions will spread to the Costa del Sol, Valle del Guadalhorce and Axarquia, where highs of 37°C are forecast.

In fact, more than half of Spain will be on alert as the week begins, with fifteen provinces handed an orange warning.

These include Almeria, Valencia, Alicante, Murcia, Sevilla, Granada, Huelva, Jaen, Cadiz, Cordoba, Albacete, Toledo, Tarragona and Extremadura.

Tuesday is also expected to be extremely warm, and readers are advised to stay out of the direct sun during the middle of the day while drinking plenty of fluids.

05 Sep 2016

Spain swelters as September heatwave continues. TheLocal.es

Almost the whole of the southern half of Spain has been put on alert for high temperatures as the late summer heatwaves continues.

The national weather agency Aemet, put 17 provinces on amber alert for high temperatures with only the very north of the country escaping what is expected to be the last heatwave of the summer.

The high temperatures are forecast to last until Thursday when storms will bring cooler temperatures.

The high temperatures raise the risk of forest fires and in Javea, south of Valencia, firefighters were struggling to bring blazes thought to be set deliberately, under control. 

Spain forest fires force evacuation of residents and tourists. (BBC news)

Spanish firefighters are battling a huge forest blaze on the Costa Blanca that has forced the evacuation of thousands of people including tourists.

More than 300 firefighters have been deployed to tackle the fire some 120km (75 miles) south-east of Valencia.

Three fires were deliberately started on one of the hottest days of the year, emergency authorities have said.

The temperature in some places is 40C, but officials hope winds that fanned the flames will decrease.

Officials evacuated more than 1,000 people late on Sunday from Javea and the resort of Benitachell.

The fire became more severe on Monday afternoon and moved toward populated areas in Cumbre del Sol, which authorities say they are also evacuating.

This picture shows how close the fire has come to Cumbre del Sol, south-east of Javea. Picture by Michael Edwards.

Valencia emergency services head Jose Maria Angel told Spanish radio that he believed three fires that ripped through vegetation and destroyed buildings were due to “the hand of man… in a very precise way”.

He told reporters aircraft were dumping water on the area every four minutes. About 65 vehicles were also deployed.

BBC Radio presenter Chris Stark was among those caught up in the blaze. “This is crazy. I think my car and maybe my apartment is on fire,” he tweeted.

Image caption Planes flew overhead dropping water as witnesses described the situation as “a warzone”. Image copyright Michael Edwards

At this time of the year, tourists make up a substantial proportion of residents in resorts such as Javea.

More than 300 people are reported to be taking sanctuary in local schools and shelters after emergency services fought the flames throughout Sunday night, supported by aircraft and military units.

In December more than 120 forest fires broke out in northern Spain, some of which officials said may have been started deliberately.

And as it usually happens with heat waves, what happens in the South, it does not just stays in the south. So the heat wave coming to the South of Europe it will also have an influence at higher latitudes.

September 05, 2016

Leave your jacket at home, it’s going to be a warm, warm week. By Patrick Astill Posted at lincolnshireecho.co.uk.

The mercury will hit at least 24C in Lincolnshire the next few days, peaking on Tuesday, although the sunniest day is set to be Thursday.

The weekend may have been something of a disappointment, but the latest forecasts show sunnier weather will be back this week.

It will be dry and sunny in Lincolnshire all week long, according to Accuweather.

Senior meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski said: “Mild air will surge into the United Kingdom this week, making conditions feel much warmer than a typical start to the month.”

After a weekend dominated by rain and a cool breeze, the jet stream will lift northward and start a milder stretch of weather this week.

Temperatures will trend upward early in the week with highs that are 4-8 degrees Celsius (6-12 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal at midweek.

The mild week will give residents ample opportunity to enjoy midday and afternoon outdoor activities without needing a jacket or brolly.

“The dry weather is good for outdoor plans, but rain is needed in southeastern England,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys said.

Warmth will last into the end of the week, only to be cut back over the weekend as a cold front sweeps across the Isles providing cooler, more seasonable temperatures.

 Follow-up on previous assessments

You might enjoy warm temp in Sept at higher latitudes, but there is a catch in such situation.

Temp Anomalies Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhDMy definition of Climate drift is, the deviation from equilibrium of the conditions allowing the perpetuity of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in a micro and macro ecosystem. This situation can be due to changes in any component of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes can be either a change in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality or rates in the flows of energy pre-established OR/AND the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components/forces and energy sinks or sources in any part of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance.

Differently from last summer 2015, this summer 2016, the atmospheric activity in the Equator has shown a behaviour which can not be directly linked with the dynamics usually related with a strong positive or negative ENSO. In July 2016 I published an assessment discussing the developments which could unfold independently from the ENSO status.

After having seen the recent events in the Atlantic and Pacific basins, and based on this definition of climate drift and the assessments presented in this blog, I do believe that there are objective and significant events connected. And that all are behaving under a dynamic which can be explained by the alteration of energy flows in the global system as the result of alterations in the composition and structure of all its parts, liquid (water cycles and water bodies inland and oceanic), gaseous (atmospheric composition and structure) and solid (land and aerosols).

My assessments are among many in the whole spectrum of environmental studies. And we all require feedback and interdisciplinary cross interaction in order to validate our positions.

So your feedback is always welcome at the same time that I try to make my best to reach directly other scientists in related disciplines.

Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D. on Sep 5, 6:44 PM sent via email
================
Dear Sir,
I am performing research in atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies as an independent researcher and I have seen a publication from you that I would like to read full.
I write to you because I am in a transition period without economic and institutional support so I would appreciate if you could send me a copy of your article so I could read it.
I publish my line of research in my blog which is at wordpress as “Filling n Finding out gaps of knowledge” http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com
The publication from you which has called my attention is The anomalous change in the QBO in 2015-2016, Geophysical Research Letters (2016) P. A. Newman1,*, L. Coy1,2, S. Pawson1 and L. R. Lait1,3

In particular, your publication is related with some assessments which I have published in my blog. Based on those I was expecting to see some anomalous behaviour at the Equator so your publication is of relevance for my line of research. One example would be the following publication:
Atmospheric Circulation and the Mixing Zone. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.). Posted on May 26, 2016
https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/2016/05/26/atmospheric-circulation-and-the-mixing-zone-by-diego-fdez-sevilla/

I understand that defending a line of research by publishing in a blog it is far from what the scientific community would consider academically relevant. In my case, without being part of a technical institution my chances to publish in academia are restricted. And without publications my profile lacks one of the most demanded requirements in selection processes to become a valid candidate. So publishing in my blog seemed like the only option to keep my research activities alive looking for an opportunity to stand out from the crowd.

I would appreciate if you could give me some feedback over my assessments but I understand that your position might demand your attention into other matters.
I appreciate your time and I hope you can send me a copy of the article.

Best Regards,
Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.
Diego Fernàndez Sevilla. Dr./Ph.D.
Aerobiologist and Environmental Research Analyst.
Ourense-Spain
Phone: +0034 639649581

A strange thing happened in the stratosphere. September 2, 2016 by Patrick Lynch. phys.org

This disruption to the wind pattern – called the “quasi-biennial oscillation” – did not have any immediate impact on weather or climate as we experience it on Earth’s surface. But it does raise interesting questions for the NASA scientists who observed it: If a pattern holds for six decades and then suddenly changes, what caused that to happen? Will it happen again? What effects might it have?

“The quasi-biennial oscillation is the stratosphere’s Old Faithful,” said Paul Newman, Chief Scientist for Earth Sciences at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, and lead author on a new paper about the event published online in Geophysical Research Letters. “If Old Faithful stopped for a day, you’d begin to wonder about what was happening under the ground.”

Winds in the tropical stratosphere, an atmospheric layer that extends from about 10 to 30 miles above Earth’s surface, circulate the planet in alternating easterly and westerly directions over roughly a two-year period. Westerly winds develop at the top of the stratosphere, and gradually descend to the bottom, about 10 miles above the surface while at the same time being replaced by a layer of easterly winds above them. In turn, the easterlies descend and are replaced by westerlies.

This pattern repeats every 28 months. In the 1960s scientists coined it the “quasi-biennial oscillation.” The record of these measurements, made by weather balloons released in the tropics at various points around the globe, dates to 1953.

The pattern never changed – until late 2015. As the year came to a close, winds from the west neared the end of their typical descent. The regular pattern held that weaker easterly winds would soon replace them. But then the westerlies appeared to move upwards and block the downward movement of the easterlies. This new held for nearly half a year, and by July 2016 the old regime seemed to resume.

“It’s really interesting when nature throws us a curveball,” Newman said.

The quasi-biennial oscillation has a wide influence on stratospheric conditions. The amount of ozone at the equator changes by 10 percent between the peaks of the easterly and westerly phases, while the oscillation also has an impact on levels of polar ozone depletion.

With this disruption now documented, Newman and colleagues are currently focused on studying both its causes and potential implications. They have two hypotheses for what could have triggered it – the particularly strong El Niño in 2015-16 or the long-term trend of rising global temperatures. Newman said the scientists are conducting further research now to figure out if the event was a “black swan,” a once-in-a-generation event, or a “canary in the coal mine,” a shift with unforeseen circumstances, caused by climate change.

______________________________________

The aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. So any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time of at least a month from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found refuting the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.

In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will help me in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.

PerspectiveSince October 2013 I have been studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.

Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License,  WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.

More assessments presenting chronologically the line of research published in this blog can be accessed in the category Framework and Timeline.

For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out):

Posted in Aerosols, Biological productivity, Energy Balance, Filling in, Influence of Continentality, Inland Water Bodies and Water Cycle, Polar vortex and Jet Stream, Water vapour | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Climate Drift, The True Meaning of Things and the Drift of Those. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)


Climate Drift, The True Meaning of Things and the Drift of Those. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

At the publication Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Drift. Are we there yet? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) 2015/07/02 one commenter (thanks Jaime) called my attention over the application of the words “Climate Drift” in my publications. And I was asked: Are you implying a rigorous definition of this terminology?

I want to leave my answer as a topic on its own:

I am not sure on what is the “rigorous” definition of “climate Drift” that you might refer to.

As part of the main body of the article I am trying to highlight how difficult it might seen to classify a “climate change” without knowing what is the “change” we are looking for. Is it a “statistically significant” “change”? for which variables? in which range of time? and location? which margin or threshold is defined and considered as the tipping point marking a “change”?.

However, while we are looking for such extreme event to show up in charts, diagrams and models, followed by significant correlations between them, displacements from previous states of equilibrium, are being observed in different parts of the environment.
Differently from numerical models which rely on conceptualizations incorporated in the design of the algorithms applied, biological niches appear indicating the state of a global interaction between biotic and none-biotic components. A niche refers to the way in which an organism fits into an ecological community or ecosystem. Through the process of natural selection, a niche is the evolutionary result of a species’ morphological, physiological, and behavioural adaptations to its surroundings.

When natural species and niches start to appear where they were not before or by different numbers, it reflects a change in the conditions of the environment where they start to develop.

These populations can migrate following the opportunistic generation of new spaces suitable for their development. Or even, in the same niche, some changes in environmental pressures can change the dominance between species since some may adapt faster than others to the new conditions.

With respect to climatic regimes and niches, variability is part of the dynamic process allowing regeneration and perpetuation of a mature ecosystem in equilibrium. Like the succession of the seasons e.g. summer and winter, helps to control the pressure exerted between populations which perform differently in different conditions. The variability incorporated in these conditions becomes a mechanism of regulation moving around a pivoting point which allows the integrity of the system.

When the climatic conditions linked with the development of a specific niche moves from the pivoting point far enough, the synergistic balance in the use and regeneration of resources and energy flows (biotic and none biotic) gets disrupted and requires modifications in the level of performance for all the components of the system.

Looking for what it might be consider the “rigorous” terminology of climate drift I have found that “Stouffer and Dixon (1998) defined climate drift as an unforced trend away from some initial state, with the trend not being part of normally occurring variability about a constant mean state.”

My point of view is that, if there is no agreement about using “climate change” as a terminology addressing the implications from seeing modifications (composition and behaviour) in so many parts of our environment (land, atmosphere/air and water (liquid, solid and vapour)), at least we might find common ground in identifying and/or studying the migration or “drift” of our climatic niches from previous regimes, either by addressing magnitudes, behaviour and/or location.

Biological seasons (like breeding seasons or pollen seasons) are driven by thermodynamic fluctuations. Similarly occurs in the atmosphere with seasons defined by hurricanes, tornadoes, etc.

After my Master in Environmental Biology in 2001, in 2002 I started to be involved in the study of atmospheric dynamics driving the release and transport of biological particles. In this field called Aerobiology I did my PhD researching how atmospheric conditions affect the aerodynamic behaviour of pollen grains when airborne. And in 2008, I performed research (later published a paper) highlighting modifications in biological pollen seasons (start earlier and ends later) due to climatic alterations triggered from urbanization levels. As an Environmental Biologist whom became involved in Aerobiological studies, since 2002 I have been observing and studying atmospheric dynamics but more precisely, in the last 4 years. And I believe that all type of seasons, including those characterised by weather events, are shifting their behaviour becoming more erratic.

I discuss it also in the post “Aug 2016 Follow-up on previous assessments. Atmospheric Dynamics, Temperature Displacements, Atmospheric Mixing (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)” Posted on August 26, 2016

My answer is not short but I hope that I have addressed the point and clarify my take on this.

My definition of Climate drift is, the deviation from equilibrium of the conditions allowing the perpetuity of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in a micro and macro ecosystem. This situation can be due to changes in any component of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes can be either a change in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality or rates in the flows of energy pre-established OR/AND the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components/forces and energy sinks or sources in any part of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance.

Judi Krzyzanowski, Ph.D. asked me the following comment: “Urbanization and land-use changes in general may be playing more of a role in our changing climate than we tend to discuss”. “Could these changes explain some of the prediction anomalies or ‘erratic’ behaviour?”

My answer is:

Yes, I believe so.

I have addressed this question through many of the assessments that I have published. I will just point out some so you can find a more elaborated answer to this question:

The timeless meaning of things

The timeless meaning of things does not exist. Like anything meanings change, evolve and adapt to new uses and applications as well as with their new implications in their surroundings.

One major scenario in scientific developments raising from this situation comes with the meaning given to what it is considered “normal”. The conceptualization of what can be assumed as “normal” has been changing through the recent years when defining the conditions for the SST defining the ENSO (Due to a significant warming trend in the Niño-3.4 region since 1950, El Niño and La Niña episodes that are defined by a single fixed 30-year base period (e.g. 1971-2000) are increasingly incorporating longer-term trends that do not reflect interannual ENSO variability. In order to remove this warming trend, CPC is adopting a new strategy to update the base period.) and also the conditions of Sea Ice cover in the Arctic. ( Aug. 19, 2016 NASA Monitors the ‘New Normal’ of Sea Ice)

Back in May 2016 I wrote an article titled “Scientifically Challenged“. As part of it I wrote:

Our Knowledge. Made by the new news on the News.

The news, those events which are defined by being “new”, unprecedented or rare. They are all over around us. In all type of media and in scientific publications. They make “the news” because they are… new.

So how should we call those events for which their significance lies on being repeatedly on the news? Are those still News? When do they become something else?

Does the repetition of an event or series of them create a new normality?

In that case, how should we call such transition? … Normalization …?

Time ago, a friend of mine brought to me the attention over the difference between “frequent” and “normal”.

We might see events happening around us, from social behaviour, political “scenarios” or weather events, which become so frequent that they become located in a blurred position, since, by their increase in frequency, they almost feel like the “new normal”. They are on the news, again, and again, so their presence in the news is so “frequent” that they are part of the “normal” display. And, at the same time, if an event does not shows in the news of any media, their existence is out of the description of the reality that we all believe to be part of.

Such ambiguity has created concepts we all are familiar with, but over which we lack control subconsciously. Consciously we will recognise that we know about them but we might not be aware of how much impact it has over our judgement and behaviour.

Sure most of you might be familiar with the following question: “If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound? Similarly, if somebody holds relevant knowledge, does it get used if there is nobody around to recognise it?

It is equally bright the one who holds a good idea to as the one who can recognise it.

The True Meaning of Things

In this blog I have performed research over those aspects linked with environmental issues, including observational analyses and data analyses but also, about the aspects behind the drivers carried from differences in perspectives created from conceptual and cultural cognition. All those aspects play roles building a conceptual framework driving all the rest of the analyses and assessments made. Either directly or indirectly.

One of the major aspect behind all debates, in all fields, including science, is the search for the “true meaning of things”. The holy grail of any type of thought, and of course, one of the main causes of entanglement and constraint in scientific and environmental debates.

Everybody wants to know, and use, the true meaning of things. But, what does it make it and how and where can you find it?

It is my belief that the main challenge is not where or whom has the true meaning of things, the real question is how can we train ourselves to identify it and recognise it independently from its source?

Last minute update (3 Sept 2016, 00.26 GMT+2)

There is something which is part of this topic and involves me directly.

Some people believe that the source of the “true meaning of things” is found in the Scientific Literature, provided by Authorized Sources and by Authorized Names.

Today more than ever, there is a vibrant debate about the value of the publications being made all over the different media platforms. Some people defend the source of peer review publications as the only one with the rightful recognition of offering true meaning of things.

Such attitude is comprehensible since it represents what it has been the result of an effort from many scientists, through many years, to bring credibility into the production and implementation of scientific inputs. To publish a paper was a recognition for a value incorporated in the state of knowledge. Every paper was so valuable that used to integrate in its bibliography the most relevant works performed in its discipline.

Nowadays, the amount of papers being published are so vast that it is impossible to replicate such accuracy. And therefore, every paper published is exposed to finding criticism once it gets released.

After having worked in academia as PhD and outside academia, in 2012 I found myself without a permanent job position (I am 41 at the present). The option to keep moving came with sporadic jobs in consultancy which, however, were becoming more sporadic in an economic recession. When I looked at my options to keep my career in the path of research I faced a reality slap.

When I was working as a researcher I had so tight schedules that I didn´t focused my attention on publishing papers. So I found myself without articles which would make my CV competitive in selection processes related with performing research. But furthermore, since I was not part of a research institution, I could not increase my publications due to the restrictions in the academic system applied to have access to publish work (status and economic).

Under such scenario I decided to demonstrate my analytical skills and productive capabilities applying my own perspective and methodology building a line of research and body of knowledge, open for public review and scrutiny, published in the only way I had possible, a blog.

The assessment that I publish in this blog are generated with the aim to make a contribution into the state of knowledge, by developing arguments strong enough and supported by data and analyses which build the credentials required to give veracity to my conclusions.

But further than my intentions, there is no much I can do about judging the “true meaning” and value of my work. That is not for me to decide but for you to judge and acknowledge if what you find in my work deserves to be considered worthy of being part of the discussion about the “true meaning of things” found in Scientific Literature, provided by an Authorized Source and by an Authorized Name.

______________________________________

The aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. So any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time of at least a month from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found refuting the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.

In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will help me in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.

PerspectiveSince October 2013 I have been studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.

Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License,  WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.

More assessments presenting chronologically the line of research published in this blog can be accessed in the category Framework and Timeline.

For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out):

 

Posted in Cultural Cognition, Energy Balance, Environmental Resilience, Filling in, Inland Water Bodies and Water Cycle, Opinion, Water vapour | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Aug 2016 Follow-up on previous assessments. Atmospheric Dynamics, Temperature Displacements, Atmospheric Mixing (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)


Aug 2016 Follow-up on Previous Assessments. Atmospheric Dynamics, Temperature Displacements, Atmospheric Mixing (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

water

From my point of view North America is seeing similar developments which have had, and still are, occurring in Europe. And those are related with the composition of the atmosphere (ref1) and ocean/continental contrasts(ref2) than solar forcing (ref3 and category Solar Activity).

Ref1.- Atmospheric Composition and Thermal Conductivity. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) 2015/08/06

Ref2.- Looking at the influence of continentality in atmospheric circulation. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) 2014/05/13

Ref3.- Solar Activity and Human Activity, Settling Their Environmental Liability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) 2015/07/24

Globally, both dynamics observed in the NH describe movements of masses of air “carrying” heat into northern latitudes (and altitudes) (ref4 and ref5).

ref4.-(UPGRADED 24th March2015) Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. 2015/02/10

ref5.- Observed Atmospheric Dynamics. A follow-up assessment over the theory proposed on Energetic gradients by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. 2016/01/29

Based on previous research shared in this blog (ref6), my assessment is that the Equator is amplifying (ref6) the effect of having the Arctic absorbing the added heat being displaced from mid-latitudes (ref7).

ref6.- Framework and Timeline

ref7.- Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) 2016/03/22

ref8.- A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla). 2015/09/08

Altogether, I believe that the present patterns seen are related with the dynamics avoiding the concentration of energetic atmospheric events in form of hurricanes, etc. (ref9).

ref9.- Atmospheric Dynamics, GHG’s, Thermal Conductivity and Polar Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)2016/04/06

The implications of seeing those dynamics repeating in the recent years are part of the discussions addressed in the publications shared in this blog. I believe that all of them are representative of a global assessment performed with independence, and with conclusions persistent over time despite the distance between the day of publication and the present day 26 Aug 2016 (ref10).

ref10.- Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Drift. Are we there yet? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) 2015/07/02

Peer review publications are starting to appear supporting the assessments presented in the line of research published in this blog (ref11).

ref11.- Peer reviewed articles supporting previous assessments and research published in this blog. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)2016/07/28

And the atmospheric events being unfolded through 2016 (ref12) until the present seem to add value to those assessments previously addressed.

ref12.- Seasonality Spring 2016. Continuous follow-up on my previous research assessing atmospheric dynamics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) 2016/03/03

Recent atmospheric events

Energy Gradients (ref 4)

The U.S. coast is in an unprecedented hurricane drought — why this is terrifying. By Jason Samenow. August 4, 2016. (Partial Extract from washingtonpost.com)

Hurricanes, large and small, have eluded U.S. shores for record lengths of time. As population and wealth along parts of the U.S. coast have exploded since the last stormy period, experts dread the potential damage and harm once the drought ends.

Three historically unprecedented droughts in landfalling U.S. hurricanes are presently active.A major hurricane hasn’t hit the U.S. Gulf or East Coast in more than a decade. A major hurricane is one containing maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph and classified as Category 3 or higher on the 1-5 Saffir-Simpson wind scale. (Hurricane Sandy had transitioned to a post tropical storm when it struck New Jersey in 2012, and was no longer classified as a hurricane at landfall, though it had winds equivalent to a Category 1 storm.) The streak has reached 3,937 days, longer than any previous drought by nearly two years.

Twenty-seven major hurricanes have occurred in the Atlantic Ocean basin since the last one, Wilma, struck Florida in 2005. The odds of this are 1 in 2,300, according to Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher from Colorado State University.

Florida hasn’t seen a hurricane of any intensity since 2005’s Wilma, which is shocking considering it averages about seven hurricane landfalls per decade. The current drought in the Sunshine State, nearing 11 years, is almost twice as long as the previous longest drought of six years (from 1979-1985).

Sixty-seven hurricanes have tracked through the Atlantic since Florida’s last hurricane impact. The odds of this are about 1 in 550, Klotzbach said.

Even the entire Gulf of Mexico, and its sprawling coast from Florida to Texas, have been hurricane-free for almost three full years, the longest period since record-keeping began 165 years ago (in 1851). The last hurricane to traverse the Gulf waters was Ingrid, which made landfall in Mexico as a tropical storm, in September 2013.

Scientists have no solid explanation for the lack of hurricane landfalls. The number of storms forming in the Atlantic over the past decade or so has been close to normal, but many have remained over the ocean or hit other countries rather than the United States.

A study published by the American Geophysical Union in 2015 said the lack of major hurricane landfalls boiled down to dumb luck rather than a particular weather pattern. “I don’t believe there is a major regime shift that’s protecting the U.S.,” said study lead author Timothy Hall from NASA.

A “recurring” area of low pressure near the U.S. East Coast in recent years may have repelled some storms, argue Klotzbach and Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami. But McNoldy still says “luck is really 99 percent of it [the drought].”

Adam Sobel, a climate scientist at Columbia University, cautions that the drought in no way invalidates global warming predictions or the expectation that storms will grow more intense in future decades. The “notion that the hurricane drought in the Atlantic has somehow disproved the consensus projections of climate science is wrong, because the drought is still a relatively short-term fluctuation in a single basin, while the projections are for long-term global trends,” he writes on his blog.

And as impressively long as the various droughts are, McNoldy said there have been numerous storms that have almost ended each of them in recent years.

So the drought is hanging on by a thread. A single major hurricane striking Florida’s Gulf Coast, McNoldy said, would break all three standing droughts simultaneously.

Equatorial Amplification (ref8)

Atlantic tropical wave could intensify and threaten Florida by Sunday. By Jason Samenow. August 23, 2016. (Partial Extract from washingtonpost.com)

The tropical Atlantic Ocean is buzzing with activity and one disturbance, in particular, could strengthen and strike Florida in six to eight days. It could even become a hurricane.

The disturbance, known as 99L, is several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands and headed westward. It is forecast to reach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico in the next one to two days where it is likely to unleash heavy rain and strong winds.

The main concern is what happens to it after it passes the islands and continues to the west and northwest. It will then enter very warm waters and atmospheric conditions more favorable for strengthening.

Many forecast models now project this disturbance will head toward the east coast of Florida or just a bit to the north.

“Models are starting to agree more on a tropical cyclone near south-to-central Florida in the Sunday to Tuesday time frame,” says Brian McNoldy, Capital Weather Gang’s tropical weather expert.

But it’s not at all clear how strong it will become. Some models forecast the disturbance may strengthen little while others project it will become a hurricane, even a strong one.

For example, the European model predicts the disturbance will rapidly develop near the northern Bahamas this weekend, and make landfall in south Florida Sunday night. The GFS model, on the other hand, does not develop the system.

So it is not a sure thing a significant storm will strike the coast, but the possibility of a disruptive event looms.

“This storm has the potential to be a dangerous one for the Bahamas and the Southeast United States,” writes Jeff Masters, meteorologist at Weather Underground, noting near-record warm water temperatures of 84-86 degrees around the Bahamas. “[W]e have the potential for 99L — which has a large circulation — to rapidly intensify into a large major hurricane.”

John Morales, chief meteorologist from the NBC affiliate, countered it’s too soon to sound alarms. “At this formative stage nobody knows what 99L will do,” he tweeted.

This morning, the National Hurricane Center sent a plane into the disturbance and described it as “disorganized” and having “a poorly defined circulation”. It says the disturbance has just a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or named tropical storm in the next 48 hours but a 60 percent chance within five days. Masters thinks that’s conservative: “I think the five-day odds should be higher, at 70 percent.”

Should the disturbance strengthen into a hurricane and strike Florida, it would end a record 10-year hurricane drought in the Sunshine state.

Increment in the role of atmospheric Water in energetic weather events (Ref12).

When it rains, it pours. By Richard Cicone, Principal, ISCIENCES, L.L.C. From isciences.com

A few days ago on my way to Traverse City, along Hill Road near Rapid City I spied stacks and stacks of timber recently extracted from the local forest. These are the remains of mature trees mowed down by a derecho storm [1] that hit Michigan on August 2, 2015. The US Weather Service issued 17 warnings that day and recorded a 4.25 inch ball of hail near West Branch, the largest since records began in 1950 [2].

One hundred mile per hour winds accompanied by over two inches of precipitation extensively damaged forests and private properties, with estimates at $29.7 million in Leelanau and $15.4 million in Grand Traverse counties [3]. Many large trees were uprooted in scenic Glen Arbor near Sleeping Bear Sand Dunes on Lake Michigan, and local farmers suffered a heavy toll. The devastation was so extensive that our Governor declared a “state of disaster” in the region [4]. Glen Arbor is now back to normal but many fallen trees are still strewn on the landscape, and memories are etched with images of that dramatic storm.

Is this normal?
I grew up in Michigan and there are plenty of stories to tell about severe weather events, driving rains, tornadoes, and deep snowfalls. But it is different now.

In fact, precipitation events in the U.S. are often more intense than in the past. Scientists have examined changes in precipitation patterns in the U.S. documenting both increased levels of total precipitation and storms that deliver much more water than normal [6], [7]. The 2014 U.S. National Climate Assessment addresses this issue stating, “Heavy downpours are increasing nationally, especially over the last three to five decades. Largest increases are in the Midwest and Northeast. Increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected for all U.S. regions” [8]

The National Climate Data Center at NOAA provides a useful online tool to explore regional variations – the U.S. Climate Extremes Index [9]. Using the Index, Figure 1 (below) shows that in the Upper Midwest a much greater than normal proportion of precipitation is derived from extreme one day events (defined as the highest 10% of occurrences of cumulative daily precipitation) [10]

Equatorial waves and water vapour

Historic Flood Event in Louisiana From 20-30 Inches of Rain.By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson , August 14, 201. From  wunderground.com

Some of the 24-hour rains that fell on Friday in Louisiana (ending at 11AM CDT/16UTC) had a recurrence interval at over 500 years, according to Metstat. Topping the list of phenomenal rainfall amounts catalogued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center for the period 6:00 am CDT Tuesday, August 9, 2016, through 9:00 am CDT Sunday was 31.39” near Watson, Louisiana.

A tropical depression-like storm with tropical depression-like impacts
The storm system responsible for the record rains formed a distinct surface low just inland along the Alabama coast on August 11, with a central pressure of 1013 mb. By August 13, the low had drifted over northwest Louisiana, and intensified to a central pressure of 1007 mb. Like a tropical depression, the low had a warm core, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around the storm brought huge amounts of tropical moisture from the near record-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and northwest Atlantic northwards over land. The amount of moisture in the atmosphere over the Gulf Coast region over the past week has been nothing short of phenomenal. Over multiple days, soundings of the atmosphere collected by weather balloon from locations such as New Orleans have measured record or near-record amounts of precipitable water (the amount of moisture in the atmosphere over a given point), often in the 2.5” to 2.75” range; sounding data extends back to 1948 in most cases. Sunday morning’s precipitable water of 2.61” in Lake Charles, LA, was among the top-ten values on record for that station.


Three-day precipitation totals ending at 10 EDT Sunday, August 14, 2016 showed several areas of 20+ inches had fallen over portions of Louisiana. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.


Projected rainfall from 12Z (8:00 am EDT) Sunday, August 14, 2016, through 12Z Wednesday. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/WPC.

The northern flank of this historic flood event
Separate from the heavy rain along the central Gulf Coast, a band of sometimes-torrential rain has pulsated over the last several days along a pre-existing frontal zone along and north of the Ohio River, stretching roughly from Arkansas to Ohio. This pattern bears some of the fingerprints of a PRE—a “predecessor rain event.” As we noted in a post last October, PREs tend to develop along preexisting frontal boundaries a few hundred miles north of landfalling tropical cyclones, as prevailing winds funnel huge amounts of moisture northward from the cyclone and concentrate it along the frontal zone. One challenge with such events is nailing down the location of the frontal zone, which can oscillate north or south as a multi-day PRE unfolds. Late Sunday into Monday, the Gulf Coast low itself will begin migrating northward along the frontal zone, further raising the possibility of flooding rains. Flash flood watches extended on Sunday morning along a belt from northern Arkansas to extreme northwest Pennsylvania.

On Friday, torrential rains put a damper on the Illinois State Fair at the state capital, Springfield, where an all-time calendar-day rainfall record was set with 5.59” (beating 5.44” from September 8, 1926). Of that total, 3.44” fell in just one hour. Although some events had to be cancelled or rescheduled, no injuries to people or livestock were reported at the fair. Parts of the southwestern Chicago suburbs received 4-5” of rain on Friday.


MODIS image of a strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa south of Cabo Verde as seen on Sunday morning, August 14, 2014. A large region of African dust is visible from the coast of Africa extending over Cabo Verde. Image credit: NASA.

African tropical wave may develop late this week
NHC was not highlighting any Atlantic tropical weather threat areas in their 5-day Tropical Weather Outlook on Sunday morning. However, two of our reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis–the European and GFS models–showed that a strong tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Saturday night does have the potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week as it moves west to west-northwest at 15 mph into the central Atlantic. In their 00Z Sunday runs, about 30 – 50% of the members of the European and GFS model ensemble forecasts predicted development of this system into a tropical depression late this week.

When temperature become something else (ref13).  Lightning.

ref13.- When Temperature Becomes Something Else (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) 2016/05/30

A night of 7000 lightings in Galicia – North Spain. (Una noche de 7.000 rayos en Galicia.) EFE. 25/08/2016

(In Spanish From lavozdegalicia.es.

Between Wednesday 24, 2016 and this morning, thousands of lightning shook the community, the third largest figure since this phenomenon is measured.

The storms that have ravaged Galicia these days leave behind an impressive number: 7,000, the number of rays that fell between Wednesday and early Thursday in various parts of the community. The majority, some 6,359, took place the 24th Aug, but also the storms of the first hours of the 25th-night made their contribution, adding, between 00.00 and 02.00, 728 to the previous thousands.

According to an expert in data Meteogalicia , Àngeles Lago, this is the “third day with more lightnings” on the Galician territory since measurement began in January 2010. And gets pretty close to the second place on record with 7.113. As it can be seen on the map, one of the most affected provinces has been Pontevedra, which received 1,586 lightnings throughout Wednesday.

CONCLUSIONS

The implications of seeing those dynamics repeating in the recent years are part of the discussions addressed in other publications in the blog. I believe that all of them are representative of a global assessment with independence of the distance in time between the day of publication and the present. All the assessments seem to keep valid under the developments observed. However, always open for discussion.

Solar forcing.

It seems to be still a subject open for interpretation so, despite of having specific posts adrresing this topic, here is mine.

The structure of an stratification thermodynamically dependent (atmosphere) behaves within thresholds. Outside those, variations of factors interacyting are not relevant enough to drive changes.

One example which represents this point of view:

Water in a solid form maintains its structural integrity below 0 degrees Celsius under oscillations which do not reach above 0 degrees Celsius. You can increase radiation and induce a change in temperature between -13C and -6C and it will not affect the structural disposition of the molecules of water.

However, the threshold can be altered so with the same forcing from an external source of energy you can alter the integrity of the structure.

You can add impurities modifying the molecular structure of the solid water. And with it you can change albedo or chemical bonds.

If the block of solid ice contains black particles, the radiation has a different impact over the irradiance performance and thermodynamic equilibrium. And similarly, if you add salt into the block of water, the molecular disposition changes, the thermodynamic characteristics of the organization gets affected and with it the threshold to maintain the integrity of the structure.

Similarly to what salt does with the boiling and ice point of water, the composition of the atmosphere (greenhouse gasses and aerosols) affect its thermodynamic behaviour triggering changes in its organization and the patterns associated.

Winter is what we call when cold masses of air move from the poles to mid-latitudes. The frequency, persistence, range and extension for those masses of air moving across latitudes, and the patterns described, are directly related with the composition of the atmosphere and its thermodynamic behaviour.

Solar forcing is constant through time, space and surface. It reaches the Earth uninterrupted in its 50% of surface through the whole cycle around the sun. Claiming that its influence can be localized in a specific part of the Earth (North Hemisphere) and in a particular time of the cycle around the Sun (North hemispheric Winter) leaves completely unattended too many questions about the rest of the time and surface receiving the influence of the same force.

The amount of questions which are not addressed by such approach, as well as from the application of the Steffan-Bolztman equation (ref14), is what it makes me to consider to leave them aside from my line of research as major driving forces.

ref14.- Tangled in Words. Atmospheric Dynamics, Stefan Boltzmann Calculations and Energy Balance (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) 2016/03/10

So far, all the forces and mechanisms identified and discussed in the line of research presented through this blog seem to be enough to support the validity of my work. Even considering the limitations of my research from lack of resources, and its uncertainties as part of applying innovative and original assessments.

From A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla).

I believe that the present weather events, altogether with the tornado seen in Venice on July, represent some of the new “Drops of Weather” coming over to say that the Summer, as we know it, is coming to an end.

The reason behind it seems to be the sporadic and unpredictable behaviour of the Jet stream, which not only is wobbly in latitude, but also in the vertical profile of the atmosphere. Accordingly, we can see that when it comes to lower levels from 300hPa induces alterations in the thermodynamical behaviour of the tropospheric circulation. In turn, when this cold air touches the lower level of our atmosphere, activates the energy accumulated in the Water vapour contained in it as latent heat, delivering new forms of energy; kinetic provoking strong winds, electrostatic generating lightnings and potential carried in the mass of all the water coming from its gaseous state into liquid or solid precipitation.

I have already discussed what is my theory about what it is happening that it is generating such a wobbly jet stream in latitude and altitude. This theory was published in a previous post and it points out the incorporation of masses of water vapour into polar latitudes as consequence of CO2 forcing as the cause wearing out the strength of the Polar Jet Stream.

I also have suggested that such incorporation of masses of water vapour into Polar Latitudes follow channels which are linked with persistent cyclonic events in the Atlantic and the Pacific. The present patterns seen in the circulation over the Pacific and the Atlantic are consistent with those proposed in this theory.

Ultimately, if this theory is right and weather patterns are incorporating water vapour into Polar latitudes, it would affect:

  • The strength of the Polar Jet Stream becoming wobbly from the bottom up, from tropospheric circulation forcing instead of from the stratospheric Polar vortex, (more here)
  • Introduction of water vapour into Arctic Polar latitudes would decrease temperature gradients in the Pole reducing ice and snow cover, (more here)
  • that would induce ice melting which in turn would affect SST and Oceanic circulation in the Atlantic and Pacific. That would explain the cold anomaly in SST in the North Atlantic, thus the AMOC and global thermohialine circulation going around the Antarctic and arriving at the Pacific.(more here)
  • Arctic Polar masses of air getting warmed up would become involved in translatitudinal circulation from the Atlantic and the Pacific through the Arctic, in a breathing like cycle. That would open a new channel for balancing gradients of atmospheric pressure between the atmospheric masses of air above both Oceans. That would explain the synchronicity between Low pressures observed in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, (more here).
  • An interconnection between Atlantic and Pacific atmospheric circulation through the Arctic would affect Equatorial winds. That would have an impact over the distribution of SST being dominated by them, being the most relevant the ENSO.(more here and here)
  • Furthermore,  new channels breaking the restriction of keeping warm masses of air bellow Polar circulation would release the thermodynamical limits for equatorial latitudes to absorb water and heat, therefore, increasing thermal conductivity towards upper latitudes. That would explain heat waves moving upward in latitude.(more here and here)
  • At the same time, incorporating the possibility for subtropical circulation to occupy the volume of space at Polar latitudes would allow the global circulation to absorb more energy without steep increases in temperature thanks to the extra volume added to be occupied.(more here)
  • An homogenization in the amount of energy carried in the atmosphere by water vapour would induce a decrease between gradients of energy. That would allow atmospheric events to persist in location and time due to the reduced capacity of the atmosphere to dissipate its energy.(more here)
  • The amount of energy being accommodated by the atmosphere would behave like electricity, being tamed by the capacity of the surroundings to absorb and conduct it. But, like a short circuit, the energy contained in the atmosphere, could overwhelm the capacity for the surroundings to cope with it in a smoothly manner, triggering abrupt discharges from energy in latent heat form carried by the water vapour, into potential energy carried by the masses of water in form of hail and  rain, and kinetic energy generating strong winds. All those forms of energy capable of decimating crops, houses and even killing animals as we have seen in some videos in this post.(more here)

Present Atmospheric conditions and dynamics

North Hemisphere

GFS ARCTIC T2 anom_2016-08-24 init Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD

GFS NH WS250 2016-08-24 init Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD

Dynamics over the Antarctica.

ref 15.- There is Ice or Frost In Antarctica? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) 2015/11/05

 

GFS SH T2_anom_2016-08-24 init Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD

Most definitely, I believe that the climate in our Earth is what it lies between waters. Between cold waters and warms waters, between waters in the atmosphere or those in the ground inland or at the oceans. Altogether, our climate lies on those processes moving energy between waters in the form of gas, liquid or solid.

If my approach and assessments are correct, the expectation comes with the applicability over unfolding developments. Based on those assessments I would expect to see the present 99L system to trigger vast amounts of rain without developing a hurricane conformation. Furthermore, it might become very resilient and mobile, with the capacity to move across the Atlantic basin reaching Europe with enough energy to deliver more rain, or moving at higher latitudes above the ocean.

Lets see.

update 29 Aug2016_________________________________________

Invest 99L Finally Develops Into Tropical Depression 9 in the Florida Straits. By: Jeff Masters , 12:11 AM GMT on August 29, 2016.

“After spending ten days in meteorological limbo-land frustrating forecasters as an “Invest”, 99L finally developed into Tropical Depression Nine, confirmed a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft late Sunday afternoon. But the storm isn’t done perplexing us yet—the model predictions for the future intensity of the storm remain wildly divergent, even if we now have growing confidence that this storm will track into the coast of Florida north of Tampa on Thursday.”

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/invest-99l-finally-develops-into-tropical-depression-9-in-the-florida-

Closing remarks

Meteorologists forecast the development of specific events in location and time. I am just talking about trends and expected behaviour in a global picture based on my line of research. I believe that the “disorganization” shown by the system 99L developing over the Tropic Atlantic and the erratic behaviour seen in other systems, could be described as a lack of definition/organization in the gradients of energy shaping the formation of cells as well as the lack of well defined contrasts with those in the surroundings driving their paths. The interpretation that I propose might be too simplistic and complex at the same time. With an increase in the amount of Energy being introduced in the atmosphere (energy carried by GHGs and water vapour), it becomes more difficult to build strong well defined contrasts between gradients of energy due to an energetic overcharge of the surroundings. Such interpretation increases the chances of adding into the equation an increased probability of seeing more frequently other  forms of energetic discharge than those in form of wind. Thus, precipitation and lightning.

This scenario brings new patterns of atmospheric developments in shape and location, and it will require to adjust models and interpretations over the scenarios unfolding.

Lightning strike kills more than 300 reindeer in Norway

Update 01 Sept 2016_________________________________________

“The Threat From Tropical Storm Hermine People Aren’t Talking About” by Marshall Shepherd. forbes.com

The first day of meteorological fall will likely bring a landfalling tropical cyclone to the United States. Tropical Storm Hermine is in the Gulf of Mexico and poses a threat to parts of Florida, South Georgia and the Carolinas. At some point today the storm “may” even become a category 1 hurricane. If it does, Senior Digital Meteorologist at Weather.com Jon Erdman tweeted,

3 #hurricane streaks may end tonight: Last U.S. landfall (Arthur July ’14). Last #Florida landfall (Wilma ’05). Last in Gulf (Ingrid ’13)

But even if it doesn’t, the public should not lose site of the threat potential associated with it as a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane. The word “hurricane” likely generates an additional “buzz,” but in this case the impacts are clear irrespective of what we call the storm. And as usual the “unsung” threat is water.

1-3 day rainfall totals forecast from Hermine. Source: National Hurricane Center.

1-3 day rainfall totals forecast from Hermine. Source: National Hurricane Center.

According to the latest National Hurricane Center public advisory, the storm famously and formerly known as “Invest 99L” has the potential to produce

“storm total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over portions of northwest Florida and southern Georgia through Friday, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. On Friday and Saturday, Hermine is expected to produce totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 10 inches possible across portions of eastern Georgia, South Carolina, and eastern North Carolina through Saturday. These rains may cause life-threatening flash flooding.”

Like many of you, I will continue to watch coverage of Hermine. And while the “wind” aspect of the storm often gets top-billing and is more telegenic, keep this information about excessive water in mind. I think the recent flooding in Louisiana is a poignant reminder of water’s destructive power.

Oh, I should also note that some forecast models are trying to stall Hermine off the Northeast coast of the United States early next week which could lead to a coastal flooding and rainfall threat in that region too. It certainly looks the 99L-to-Hermine legend might continue to grow.

And “turn around, don’t drown.”

Update on Hermine from the National Hurricane Center as of 5 am Thursday September 1st.

Update on Hermine from the National Hurricane Center as of 5 am Thursday September 1st.

______________________________________

The aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. So any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time of at least a month from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found refuting the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.

In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will help me in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.

PerspectiveSince October 2013 I have been studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.

Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License,  WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.

More assessments presenting chronologically the line of research published in this blog can be accessed in the category Framework and Timeline.

For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out):

Posted in Aerobiology, Aerosols, Air, Biological productivity, Energy Balance, Extreme climatic events, Filling in, Influence of Continentality, Polar vortex and Jet Stream, Solar activity, Water vapour | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Climate. The Long Distance Between Science And Politics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)


Climate. The Long Distance Between Science And Politics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

Last week the celebrity physicist Brian Cox appeared at the ABC’s Q&A on Monday night to discuss the state of climate with other panellist.

Several different digital platform media have covered the debate with sensationalist headlines focusing on the confrontation of two points of view. Brian Cox defended the existence of a climate change linked to anthropogenic forcing and Co2 emissions based on data and scientific agreement. Meanwhile, the  Australian senator-elect Malcolm Roberts defended his doubts based on an untrusted sense over the agenda behind the institutions handling the measurements and assessments supporting Brian’s posture.

Both postures have become stereotypes in the debate on climate. Same situation can be found all over the different channels supplying information and allowing interaction between participants.

Brian used “data based” assessments representing the scientific thought. Malcolm defended his doubts based on inaccuracies on computer modelling and the need for “empirical evidence.”

The missing link

Both postures are so close that they could be called the two sides of the same coin. Both represent postures which are allegedly based on analytical thinking and resource management.

The scientific thought looks for the most accurate method to analyse situations and evaluate their impacts and applications. Similar approach is expected in politics when they take decisions applied in designing and imposing policies affecting access to social-care, education, economic stability and environmental policies.

The assessments from scientists and politicians have an impact over all aspects related with the dynamics of any society.

The posture of following data blinded by its “objectivity” is risky and any posture based entirely on datasets, should be followed with an attitude of constant critical thinking. So I would not go so hard on anybody bringing doubts into the table. But, somebody with such critical attitude, should also show it with any other assessments directly related with the implementation and designing of all other policies and use of resources.

In the present economic situation, many countries are suffering economic imbalances triggered by lousy assessments followed by the politic absence of criticism. So it takes my attention how easily it can be made a strong political statement against assessments made by scientists over the use of natural resources and its impact over the global dynamics when such strong political criticism is not applied in the design and application of other policies.

My Take

Science and Politics surged as a necessity to manage resources and apply strategies aimed to generate a sustainable growth in our societies.

Both are carried out by humans and therefore, all aspects of human behaviour are present in all sectors. Political and economic agendas and personal interests are involved in both sides. But also the responsibility behind any decision and posture having an impact over the whole society.

Science and politics are advocated to work together. The mere fact of losing trust over each other, by extension, triggers the lost of trust from society towards either politics and science.

People pick their sides and create a sense of right and wrong in a dispute which has no winner.

We need to focus on understanding the source of our differences before we can move into convincing any fictitious “opponent”. And that is what I missed in the debate. A discussion over the source of the differences between both postures, a scientists and a politician.

One major question arise for me from the debate which involves everyone:

Which assets do we ask for in a scientists and in a politician?

And after you think for a while over those, look at them and ask yourself why are not the same assets for both?


More assessments presenting chronologically the line of research published in this blog can be accessed in the category Framework and Timeline.

Other related posts:

The scope of Environmental Science and scientific thought. From Thought-driven to Data-driven, from Critical Thinking to Data Management. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) 26 June 2015

Scientifically Challenged (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) 12 May 2016

Settled Science (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) 9 June 2016

Ups and Downs on Climatic Assessments. A Matter of Multiple Perspectives from the Same Point of View (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) 12 August 2016

Posted in Opinion | Tagged , , , , , | 5 Comments

Ups and Downs on Climatic Assessments. A Matter of Multiple Perspectives from the Same Point of View (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)


Ups and Downs on Climatic Assessments. A Matter of Multiple Perspectives from the Same Point of View (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

Escher - Cascade (01)

In previous publications I have shared images and created videos to support my research based on recent observed atmospheric events.

In this publication, I want to share one thought which has been coming very often around my research over climatic data sets and analyses.

From some time ago I have increasingly getting the sense of that there is a limitation which is playing a huge role over atmospheric assessments as the result of applying numerous indexes, (which keep increasing in number) defining in isolation everything measurable. And then, we look for “teleconnections” between them, like the AO, NAO, PDO, EPO, ENSO… But, all of them, either talking about variations in SST or Atmospheric Pressure, end up pointing to the same driving factor dominating their behaviour, changes in wind shear.

Many of those indexes overlap their significance and will never work together in a consensual approach because they represent atmospheric dynamics which are working at different grades of dependency for different variables, changing the magnitude of those “dominance interrelations” throughout time. It feels like looking at the relation in the atmosphere between atmospheric relative humidity, total water vapour, specific humidity, atmospheric liquid water and precipitation. All related but different.

And, I believe that all of the differences applied in compartmentalizing the structure and zonification of our atmosphere are carrying the limitations generated from the position and attitude adopted as observers.

We have a tendency to interpret many of the events observed relying on what it works for us as if it works the same for everything out there. And then we build data processes bypassing our faulty point of view so they should overcome such limitations. Because, computers do not question the validity of an outcome in terms of making sense. If it is “computationable” it is valid within probability margins. But, because computers do not question if considering something computational makes sense in itself, or resolves anything, or even if the approach/program applied is the correct, computational processes just take the info supplied under the parameters programmed, and deliver a “meaningless” result. The meaning of the result has to be evaluated by a human interpretation from a human perspective.

Ups and Downs

So we look at developments moving up or down, from east to west, a meaningful average or a meaningless event. But what if we consider that in a round object, there is no up or down, neither left or right, and everything happens as an indicator of a wider process.

Averages play a huge role in climatic studies. But like statistics there are huge limitations assumed. If the average food supply for each family in a town is 5 kg of meat per week, you will never suspect that maybe half of the population is starving while the other half takes 10kg or more of meat per week.

In a 300km drive on a 3m wide road, there is only one bump, 2m wide 2m long and 2m deep. In average, if you spread the size of the bump throughout 300km, you will have a smooth trip… It all becomes relevant when we consider that such localised event marks a threshold threatening the integrity of your car. Same happens with environmental events. Some localized events are significant because they represent thresholds endangering the continuity of coexistent processes. One example are earthquakes. They are able to change the course of a river for ever, and with it, all the ecosystems dependent on the old course as well as those under the influence of the new one.

But, what about such considerations in atmospheric dynamics? So far, nobody has identified localised events, either in time or in geographical location, representing the threshold that changed previous dynamics. And I believe that those have happened in front of our eyes, but we haven´t been able to conceptualise their significance.

We, as specie, learn to interpret codes, in form of languages, in order to predict outcomes and be prepared so our response lapse time gets reduced, as part of an instinct to survive. But once we have learnt a pattern of thought, it is very difficult for us to change it.

Atmospheric dynamics are driven by forces of all kinds. However, we focus our attention mostly over those of a magnitude enough to call our attention, or that of our man-made algorithms.

These type of considerations underestimate some situations which have shown in the past to play a role which can easily scape out of our radar. What we consider small magnitudes, can actually trigger chain reactions with big repercussions. One of the most noticeable startling example occurred in 1940 in Tacoma EEUU.

The collapse of the 1940 Tacoma Narrows Bridge stunned everyone, especially engineers. How could the most “modern” suspension bridge, with the most advanced design, suffer catastrophic failure in a relatively light wind?

Construction on the bridge began in September 1938. From the time the deck was built, it began to move vertically in windy conditions, which led to construction workers giving the bridge the nickname Galloping Gertie. The motion was observed even when the bridge opened to the public. Several measures aimed at stopping the motion were ineffective, and the bridge’s main span finally collapsed under 40-mile-per-hour (64 km/h) wind conditions the morning of November 7, 1940.

The investigation Board’s most significant finding was simple and obvious: the engineering community must study and better understand aerodynamics in designing long suspension bridges.

Meanwhile, Professor F. B. Farquharson continued wind tunnel tests. He concluded that the “cumulative effected of undampened rhythmic forces” had produced “intense resonant oscillation.” In other words, the bridge’s lightness, combined with an accumulation of wind pressure on the 8-foot solid plate girder and deck, caused the bridge to fail.

Leon Moisseiff, who was contacted immediately after the failure, said he was “completely at a loss to explain the collapse.” Moisseiff visited the ruined bridge one week later, touring under the watchful eye of Clark Eldridge. Moisseiff’s design, while pushing beyond the boundaries of engineering practice, fully met the requirements of accepted theory at the time.

Many other examples of small magnitude factors having big repercussions can be found in many engineering challenges and behind many failures. Those small processes are all over our environment passing unnoticed. So everything comes to the scale of the force that we are able to recognise as significant.

A perspective of scale

When we look at the state of our atmosphere and the dynamics involved, in order to identify a forcing triggering a change, we look for big magnitudes which alter our cyclic patterns of thought. In other words, we look at what it is a referent of stability in our environment and we talk about variations between day and night, between seasons in a year and between seasons among years.

Such cycles are easy to identify to our understanding when in fact, our planet is in constant exposure to radiation from the Sun without day and night. It is like a chicken being roasted in a barbecue set in space. There is no average between day and night in the percentage of surface under radiation. The Earth has exposed to Sun’s radiation half of its surface, always and constantly. There is no day and night. Like when you are under the sun at the beach, you can face upwards or backwards, but you would not call that difference day and night.

Our seasons are only related to our position in latitude, whereas the planet as a whole, it has just small variations in the amount of radiation through the whole round around the Sun. And even more, our Sun is not static while our planet moves around. It also moves in position through space, and the Earth (we) with it.

So if we look for changes in those forces with the major magnitudes, we will be overcome by trying to understand the constant change of those and, at the same time, the constant rate at which those forces interact. Such constant rate in those changes gives stability to our environment. And that gives more significance to the repercussion from changes in the forces of minor magnitude. Like steering a ship in the middle of the ocean, you do not need to change the currents, you just need to change the angle of approach.

 Perspective and Attitude

We have to face major questions considering all magnitudes and perspectives. But that might require a change in our perspective and attitude.

What we consider too small to matter and big enough, are just considerations of our limitations.

Exploring the Ups and Downs

We are looking for answers everywhere, Up and Down, to East and West, to the North and the South. But how much of our limitations come from those same applications?

Many of us doing research over environmental transformations, atmospheric dynamics and climatic drifts are looking at the same images. However, we not all are applying the same perspectives and getting the same interpretations.

Such differences make science to move with its own ups and downs, as previous thinkers felt discussing the shape of the Earth. Nowadays science is facing similar challenges and, somehow, in the era of technology, the behaviour and attitude towards challenging the establishment seems to carry same type of threats.

Ups and Downs Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD

In the present world of bigdata, we are facing also the challenge of figuring out what to do with the amount of data being generated. Such challenge represents the other side of the same coin represented by the previous image: “Without an opinion, you are just another person with data.” Somewhere in the middle lays the useful thinking we need.

Many discoveries have come from people unable to have the data which would demonstrate that they were in the right path. They would not have any chance to be considered by the scientific community in the present time. Not even Einstein had enough data to support all of his claims. So, was he kind of another person with an opinion?

An opinion has shape, data requires to be given shape.

Could we see different things in a different way by just opening our perspective to new positions as observers?

Ups and Downs by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD

There is a price we have paid for leaning heavily on the idea that humans must be information processors just because computers are information processors (more here). The scope of Environmental Science and Scientific Thought has moved from Thought-driven to Data-driven, from Critical Thinking to Data Management.

Computers and models can give us results, and all of them will have to be interpreted from a human perspective since everything programmed by man is a projection of the limitations carried by the programmer.

You can obtain maps giving you images, and yet, we will look at them and interpret their meaning subjected to ups and downs.

Diapositiva21

Perspective on our ourselves

Perspective is a state of mind, not only represents where we stand but also, how difficult it can be for us to change ourselves before changing everything around us to find sense on it.

Follow-up on the Research published in this Blog

Washingtonpost.com_news. The U.S. coast is in an unprecedented hurricane drought — why this is terrifyingtakoma narrow bridge. By Jason Samenow (August 4)

Twenty-seven major hurricanes have occurred in the Atlantic Ocean basin since the last one, Wilma, struck Florida in 2005. The odds of this are 1 in 2,300, according to Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher from Colorado State University.

Florida hasn’t seen a hurricane of any intensity since 2005’s Wilma, which is shocking considering it averages about seven hurricane landfalls per decade. The current drought in the Sunshine State, nearing 11 years, is almost twice as long as the previous longest drought of six years (from 1979-1985).

ixty-seven hurricanes have tracked through the Atlantic since Florida’s last hurricane impact. The odds of this are about 1 in 550, Klotzbach said.

Even the entire Gulf of Mexico, and its sprawling coast from Florida to Texas, have been hurricane-free for almost three full years, the longest period since record-keeping began 165 years ago (in 1851). The last hurricane to traverse the Gulf waters was Ingrid, which made landfall in Mexico as a tropical storm, in September 2013.

Scientists have no solid explanation for the lack of hurricane landfalls. The number of storms forming in the Atlantic over the past decade or so has been close to normal, but many have remained over the ocean or hit other countries rather than the United States.

A study published by the American Geophysical Union in 2015 said the lack of major hurricane landfalls boiled down to dumb luck rather than a particular weather pattern. “I don’t believe there is a major regime shift that’s protecting the U.S.,” said study lead author Timothy Hall from NASA.

Every once in a while there is a broadcast about some type of discomfort between real time observation, data and models. But what it is more striking is that everybody seems to be expecting for data and models to give answers about everything. And when those do not fit, nobody has an alternative!!! There is no feasible theory or sensed opinion describing a possible mechanism explaining any principles driving the state of our atmosphere. Only  positions based on defending the probability of seeing a factor raise or decrease without  having a purposed mechanism driving those changes. Even the concept of Arctic Amplification has its ups and downs.

In Oct 2014 I shared my theory through all channels in my hand with the aim to offer it for an open, public and multidisciplinary review.

I wrote it down in my blog and I shared it in my profile in academia.edu and at several groups in LinkedIn, (you need to be logged-in in order to have access to the links)

(Updated 22/Dec/14) A Groundhog forecast on climate at the North Hemisphere. New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on 21 October 2014. (link to the publication in this blog)

Links to the publication at LinkedIn’s groups (2014/10/25 12:58:23 UTC):

Wordpress Visits Stats Post Theory CLimate Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD

WordPress Visits Stats 2 weeks between Oct 20, 2014 and Nov 2, 2014. Post Theory Climate by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.

In an exchange of emails with Jennifer Francis asking for feedback she pointed me out that there were no peer reviewed publications at the time available to verify my assessments so I should offer my own data and analyses. Accordingly, in February 2015 I wrote a follow-up piece revisiting and contrasting my theory with the events occurred throughout the winter 2014-15.

(UPGRADED 24th March2015) Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Posted on 10th February 2015.

Links to the publication at LinkedIn’s groups (2015/03/24 07:22:15 UTC):

It is being more challenging than I expected to find feedback on it when members at specialised groups like AGU and NOAA kept silent without agreement or disagreement.

In the last year 2016 it has been refreshing and encouraging to finally start finding feedback and positive comments. Reaching same conclusions from different points of view is what strengthens the validity of any approach to discuss and implement new ideas in atmospheric and climatic assessments.

When it is claimed that there is an absence of ideas exploring connections between data, atmospheric dynamics and climatic shits, I am just trying to offer mine (follow this link to see those posts with DOI published at ResearchGate and this link with the Timeline and Framework of all publications in this blog)

Hurricanes, tornados, typhoons, thunderstorms… are all expressions of localised accumulations of energy in a constrained space. Their lifespan and impact, is conditioned by the rate at which the energy gets dissipated into their surroundings. Interfaces of phases with high contrasts in energy gradients clash abruptly. By homogenizing the energy contained and dispersed all over the surrounded atmosphere, it is reduced the differential in the gradients of energy, reducing also the amplitude of the shock wave generated by the contrast required to dissipate their energy.

Overall, my conclusions from my research are that the mixing ratio between the usually compartmentalised parts of the atmosphere, in latitude and longitude, is increasing.

The consequences are affecting dynamics in different ways, with different implications but all sharing same origin.

A week ago I answered a message to Kenneth D. Murray (Managing Director, IEC) about the action of Dust storms building high electric fields due to particle collision and electron transfer mitigating CO2.

The number of wildfires active around the world, and in particular in Europe, makes my answer quite appropriated at this time.

In previous posts in my blog I have said that if we consider that things are changing, we cannot contemplate projections based on maintaining the conditions as they are. Where I would put my finger pointing at would be at the generation of new synergies once thresholds are reached. And that is a complex matter on its own where we can incorporate, but not only, deforestation, fossil fuel combustion and seasonal hemispheric differences.

Particles in the air are compounds of different nature, characteristics and behaviour. Biological and none biological as well as organic and inorganic compounds. Some are inert and some are active. Activity can be chemical or other nature like holding electric charges. Some particles are crystals which can get dissolved like salt from sea breeze. Others are biological components liberated in evapotranspiration processes, pieces of tissue or cells like pollen and spores. Then we have also black carbon from combustion of fossil fuels. And more.

When you say: “Dust storms build high electric fields due to particle collision and electron transfer. How much do these mitigate CO2?”

A quick thought comes to my mind. How many wild fires will be started due to lightning from the thunderstorms? And overall, and in the absence of thunderstorms, how much CO2 can a thunderstorm mitigate in comparison with the amount of CO2 being emitted?

For a complete index with all the previous publications in the line of research published in this blog follow the link

At this moment I am in a transition period with no institutional or economic support. The performance of my work as independent researcher, with no institutional and economic support, is limited by my lack of access to resources and economic stability. So far what I have published in this blog is what I have been able to offer with those limitations. I am looking either for funding to extend the work published in this blog or for a job position worldwide joining a team in their efforts. The ideal situation for me would be to join a team having the opportunity to incorporate my experience and results from my research. I believe that with more resources it could make a contribution in the establishment of agreement in the scientific community as well as in the design and implementation of strategies aimed to adopt measures to adapt and to increase resilience in our societies and natural ecosystems.

I am always open for feedback in the comments section. Also, I will attend any communication at my email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

IF you want to know more about me you can find more info in the About page in this blog. Also you can find my Profile at ResearchGate, at Linkedin and at  SlideShare (CV and Resume letter in pdf format).

______________________________________

I keep constantly looking into new developments and info in related topics. Since every person reaching my publications are interested in the same subjects, I would appreciate that you leave a comment and use attribution to my work when you find it influencing yours. Either through inspiration, data or methodology.

So please, get involved in my effort and join me, don´t exclude me from what it should be a team’s effort.

At the end of the day, and our lives, each one of us choose what we want to be recognised for.

The aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. So any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time of at least a month from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found refuting the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.

In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will help me in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.

PerspectiveSince October 2013 I have been studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.

Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License,  WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.

Posted in Biological productivity, Cultural Cognition, Energy Balance, Extreme climatic events, Filling in, Water vapour | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments

The Compartmentalization of Evolution (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)


The Compartmentalization of Evolution (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

Integration

In maths, Integration is the inverse of differentiation.

In engineering, system integration is defined as the process of bringing together the component subsystems into one system and ensuring that the subsystems function together as a system.

In Sociology and Economy

  • Social integration, in social sciences, is the movement of refugees and underprivileged sections of a society into the mainstream of societies
  • Racial integration, refers to social and cultural behaviour
  • Economic integration, refers to trade unification between different states
  • Educational integration of students with disabilities
  • Regional integration, a process in which states enter into a regional agreement in order to enhance regional cooperation through regional institutions and rules

Meanwhile in calculus, Integration is the inverse of differentiation, in our societies, integration is facing the challenge of “combining” in a functional system the value of “identity” and “unification”.

The problem comes from the idea of being united under a single identity.

In evolution, the process of integration offers an advantage. Through the integration in one single unit of multiple components brought from different several others it is generated a new single identity stronger than each of the individual parts surviving separately. The advantage comes from the new capacity developed to combine the strongest assets of each part to overcome the weaknesses carried by the performance of each part working individually.

This idea is simple to understand and it is used everyday to talk about team work and sports and economy and environmental policies and so on. And yet, there is a strong fear against losing identity, what ever that might be.

Identity

What it is part of the situation is the question of, what is an identity based on?

Religion, Pigmentation, Social background, Geographic location on birth, Education, economic status, family, …

Evolution has been always the integration of different parts to create a single unit incorporating aspects from those which complement each other and as a result, enhance the performance of the new unit.

As I see it, we might be the first specie in the Earth history that confronts the pressure from natural evolution with the capacity to take decisions over how to adapt. Normally, natural selection just makes the decision by just keeping those whom are able to adapt to the pressure. And as it happens in evolution times, it is not about if we want or not to adapt.

The human specie is embedded in a natural system with a single identity, like it or not. We represent one component of this identity. We survive thanks to what we take from this natural system but instead of playing our part covering for its weaknesses, we might be actually making them even weaker.

Compartmentalization

What it takes us to the point of considering the whole aside the parts. So our natural system as an identity represented by the whole, is considered omnipotent.

When the whole is divided in its parts, we have the elements interacting in Space (Sun, planetary alignment), the position of our planet in Space (Tilt, rotation, etc) and the situation of the Space in our Planet.

One assessment comes from considering the evolution in the interaction between the elements present in space (planets, radiation, gravitational forces, debris, …) as the forces dominating the evolution in our planet.

Then there is also the implications derived from the evolution in the dynamics driving the behaviour of our planet in relation with its angle of tilt and distance related with the Sun as well as the magnetic field, velocity of rotation, …).

When we look at the evolution of the conditions within the surface of the planet, and the forces driving its evolution, the assessments diverge from each other. Some are based merely in the influence from forces at planetary scale either originated from the interaction between elements present in Space or the conditions of our planet as whole.

From this point of view, the single unit we are part of and that we call our planetary environment, is evolving driven by those forces and independently from the interaction between the parts that constitute it.

Time

Maybe, it is about time that we call the attention on “time” as a major force involved in evolution.

Our planet has suffered many changes through its existence. The time scale applied to understand it is many times beyond our ability to comprehend its full meaning. Relatively speaking, humans exists as seconds in a 24 hour period of existence for our planet. Such small margin of existence in such a vast period of time make us insignificant in the life experiences of our planet.

Even the capacity that humans have developed to manipulate energy, is not comparable with the amount of energy flows that the Earth as a planet can generate through gravity, magnetism and kinetic movement. Those forces have been through time before our existence and they will be after.

But, those energy flows and planetary interactions, represent magnitudes which are driven by wide timescales. So, we know that as the magnitude of a force increases it also increases the timescale through which this force evolve. It is like moving volumes of mass. The bigger the volume the longer it takes to move it.

So, is it irrelevant what happens when the time scale is reduced?

Compartmentalizing Time

Well, if you take the metabolism of a mosquito, Males have the shortest lives, usually 10 days or less. So, the timescale for “relevant” things to happen is way shorter than for us. And what they consider their pace is faster than ours. For us it is easier to handle what happens in our surroundings as closer gets to our timescale. It is easier for us to follow the movement of a cat than of a mosquito.

Does this means that even though mosquitoes and us do not share same time-scale we do not have an impact to each other?

We know that our planet handle variations in forces coming from interacting with planetary elements, of enormous proportions and in a planetary system. But, how well does it take changes in a smaller timescale and happening from within, is another different matter.

We are small in comparison with other players and the forces involved, but we move way faster.

We can blame our changing climate to natural causes or human transformation, but, as the economic system is managed nowadays, the problems behind human displacement and societal resilience are rooted over the unsustainable and inefficient management of resources and the incapacity to evolve allowing cultural evolution through integration.

In the earth’s planet timescale, dealing with this it will become part of its evolution. But in our timescale, as a society, we are keeping our differences in defence of our identities and social so we are compartmentalizing our evolution. In other words, we are not taking the advantage of our differences to cover our individual weaknesses but making our weaknesses an added pressure for our evolution and the evolution of our environment.

We as specie are expending our time thinking about the weather and climate in planetary timescales when meanwhile, in our timescale, we might not even get to survive the impact in our evolution from our own waste.

 

Posted in Filling in, Finding out, Opinion | Tagged , , , , , , | 7 Comments

What is on the menu? “Plastic” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)


What is on the menu? “Plastic” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

Plastic never really goes away, it just breaks down into smaller and smaller pieces — so small the naked eye can’t see it.

Microplastics are harming water resources to an extent that is not fully understood by science today.

In a previous publication in this blog I have discussed aspects which I consider to be relevant behind the lack of knowledge identifying the impact from plastics in the functionality of the Oceans as Climate regulators:

The problems derived from releasing vast amounts of plastic as waste into the open generates issues which range from the mere degradation of sceneries aesthetically appealing, the impact over resources required to maintain the ecosystem’s equilibrium, the chemistry  behind their degradation, up to the less evident and more harmful which is its incorporation in our own bodies as part of the trophic chain. The aquatic fauna in Rivers, Oceans and Lakes consume those plastics on all their sizes, and even as molecules in polymer form, and we eat them.

Any search for information in this subject will offer you many sources for you to look into.

Plastics on the menu

One example comes from two publications from 2015.

TheGuardian published on Thursday 12 February 2015 (by Andreas Merklthe) the presentation of a study questioning the final destination for the huge quantities of plastic entering the ocean.

Ocean plastic is likely disappearing into the food chain, new study indicates.

Since much of it isn’t accounted for, says Andreas Merkl, we should be concerned about where it’s ending up.

The drifting garbage patches we hear about in the news – such as the “Great Pacific Garbage Patch” – are the tiny tip of a man-made iceberg, accounting for probably just 5% of all the plastic waste that has been dumped, blown or washed into the sea.

New research published today in the journal Science offers the first real estimate at the quantity of plastic waste entering the ocean. And it doesn’t look good. The findings show that between 5 to 12m tonnes of plastics enter our ocean every year. This is on top of the 100 to 150m tonnes likely already in the ocean.

What’s truly worrying me is the missing plastic. We don’t know where all this plastic goes. We know that most of it never deteriorates. Instead it “weathers”, breaking down into ever smaller parts, most invisible to the eye. The often-publicized plastic gyres hold less than 5% than the estimated total. Some is trapped in Arctic ice; more sinks to the sea floor; and a good bit rests on beaches and shorelines. But where is the rest?

We know that plastic in the ocean is eaten by animals; we find it in every species of fish we examine, and it has caused the death of countless seabirds, turtles, and ocean mammals. We are afraid that a good bit of the missing plastic is actually inside the animals.

The new Science study identifies where the plastic is coming from: it originates mainly in developing countries, with rapidly growing populations and emerging middle classes, which are consuming more and more plastic.

A different publication was presented on the 25 September 2015 at http://www.newscientist.com by Karl Gruber.

Plastic in the food chain: Artificial debris found in fish.

Fish caught off the coasts of California and Indonesia and sold in local markets have been found to have plastics and textile fibres in their guts, raising concerns over food safety.

Chelsea Rochman at the University of California Davis school of veterinary medicine and her team visited a fish market in Half Moon Bay and Princeton in California and in Makassar, Indonesia.

In California they sampled 76 fish from 12 species and one shellfish species, and in Indonesia 76 fish from 11 species. All had been caught nearby. The animals were dissected and their guts treated chemically to dissolve body tissue and reveal any plastic and fibre debris they contained.

The team found that 55 per cent of the fish species sampled in Indonesia contained human-derived debris. This included Indian mackerel, shortfin scad and silver-stripe round herring. In total, 28 per cent of the fish sampled contained the debris, with one having 21 pieces of plastic inside it.

In the US, 67 per cent of the species – including the pacific oyster – contained the debris. The species included Pacific anchovy, striped bass and Chinook salmon. A quarter of the individual fish sampled were affected.

Textile fibres made up the majority of human-made debris found in fish in the US, while plastic dominated that found in Indonesia’s fish. “I was very surprised to see such a difference in type of debris between locations,” says Rochman.

“This clearly shows that plastic is in our food chain,” says Pete Davison of Farallon Institute for Advanced Ecosystem Research in California. “There is now quite a bit of literature showing that a wide variety of marine species consume plastic. It is likely to be happening everywhere.”

Journal reference: Scientific Reports, DOI: 10.1038/srep14340

Every little counts

As part of my own contribution into the issue of managing knowledge addressing the impact from plastics in our environment I want to make some space in this blog to promote and acknowledge initiatives addressing those topics. In a previous post I presented a small association from Galicia-North west Spain called Mar de Fabula.

Today I want to present an initiative from the Canadian Wildlife Federation promoting a petition to urge the Government of Canada to continue to address the issue of plastic waste.

With over 202,000 km of coastline along three oceans and 891,163 square kilometres of its total area covered by fresh water, Canada is a nation defined by its connection to water.  Unfortunately, those waters are under threat from a growing environmental concern: microplastics.

 The Government of Canada has taken an important first step by recently adding microbeads to the List of Toxic Substances under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act; however, there are still many other sources of microplastics polluting our waters. In fact, in a recent study researchers found microplastics in every sample that was taken near shore areas along both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

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More assessments presenting chronologically the line of research published in this blog can be accessed in the category Framework and Timeline.

Among those posts related:

Our Environment. One Vision and Many Thoughts. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

Domesticating Nature. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)

Posted in Environmental Resilience, Filling in, Finding out, Inland Water Bodies and Water Cycle, Opinion | Tagged , , , , , | 6 Comments