Climate and weather December 2015. Another Polar Vortex another Heat Wave? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)


Climate and weather December 2015. Another Polar Vortex another Heat Wave? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

I believe that this year will share many similarities with winter 2014/15. Based on the thermal conditions and conductivity accumulated in the atmosphere through the summer-fall 2015 this will bring some Stratospheric “Sudden” Warming affecting the polar vortex configuration from the bottom up.

What I expect, but with some uncertainty, is more rain and strong winds reaching tropospheric levels, instead of snow. And that would be an indicator of things going bad. I hope I am wrong about that, cause if I am right there are other consequences.

If rain at the desserts would be a strong indicator of something changing, increasing “rain” instead of snow at higher latitudes would have a post-effect over the atmospheric circulation, and generate feedback loops. I don´t want to go too far and become an alarmist with no valid criteria, so I will only make these comments considering that you have your own opinion.

The most common form of analysis when addressing the conformation of the Polar Vortex is following the idea of considering that its configuration is the responsible for the conditions at Tropospheric level.

Why not the other way around?

Warm masses of air not only get into North latitudes but also in altitude when they become close to the Pole.

17th Dec 2015. 1000hPa Wind conditions, Temperature and Total Precipitable Water in the NH. Image Nullschool.

In 2014 I have already discussed the effect of having middle latitudes being warmed up from a pretty hot, long, summer-like fall period  inducing the type of Polar Vortex configuration we see actually. (ref)

Wind Speed North Hemisphere Polar Vortex_Jet Stream Oct_Nov 2014 DiegoFdezSevilla

2014 10 hPa and 250 hPa conditions. Image from the previous publication: Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on November 14, 2014.

17th Dec 2015 Strat S by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

2015 Dec 10 hPa and 250 hPa conditions

At 70 hPa there is a ring of warm air around the Polar vortex and warmer than lower latitudes.

The warmer mass of air represents not only the conditions in heat transfer capabilities towards its surroundings but also the molecular density of the mass of air containing this energy and the convective processes which represents from low altitudes moving upwards.

Considering the conditions in temperature and thermal conductivity at tropospheric level I can only visualize the movement of warm air towards high latitudes as much as in altitude.

When I look at anomalies I use a baseline between 1979-2000 instead of the one used by NOAA 1981-2010 just because I want to see less interferences from proximity, and yet, both show same pattern, and that is not encouraging.

 

GFS-025deg_NH-SAT1_T2_anom

The movement of tropospheric masses of air into high altitude was easily visible from the Spacial Station at the time when vast extensions of forests were being consumed by wildfires in Canada.

Black smoke Canadian fires stratosferic circulation by Diego FdezSevilla

Image From the previous publication: Wildfires On The Ground and Smoke Up In The Sky (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on July 14, 2015

My interpretation of the behaviour of the Ecosystem as a whole is that the first and fastest medium reacting to the energy entering the system is the atmosphere. And therefore the atmosphere leads, and the events found in the other mediums follow.

The events that I have explored seem to follow this interpretation. And new publications seem to support my point of view.

I look at those anomalies not by the amount of heat in itself but by the molecular composition of the mass of air holding it at such latitudes and time of the year. If this heat is there is because “thermodynamically” it can, the conditions allow it. And that is under my point of view the key in this matter. More radiation reaches out space but the molecular composition do not hold that temperature.

As I have tried to point out in this last publication, same patterns of atmospheric circulation moving masses of air to higher latitudes holding heat seem to be repeating since I started looking at it in 2013, over the Pacific and Atlantic, at tropospheric level as well as at stratospheric level. The gas with highest capacity to do it is water vapour, which furthermore, generates downpour rains and floods when releases part of the energy carried. Lets see how the following events match or not with my line of thought and what other scientists have to say from their point of view. So far, I am worried that things are going as I predicted and they might be just a stage part of a transition towards other changes.

17th Dec 2015 by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

Water vapour circulation globally 7th Sept 2015 DiegoFdezSevilla

Image from the previous publication: Discussing Climatic Teleconnections. Follow Up On My Previous Research (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on October 21, 2015

Two new articles claim which I believe support those from my own research:

1-Extending climate predictability beyond El Niño. Date: April 21, 2015 Source: University of Hawaii – SOEST

“Whereas the Pacific was previously considered the main driver of tropical climate variability and the Atlantic and Indian Ocean its slaves, our results document a much more active role for the Atlantic Ocean in determining conditions in the other two ocean basins.

2-New study questions long-held theories of climate variability in the North Atlantic. Atmosphere appears to drive decades-long climate variations. Date: October 15, 2015 Source: University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science.

This new analysis shows that the pattern of the AMO can be accounted for by atmospheric circulation alone, without any role for the ocean circulation.

______________________________________

Since I am in transition between jobs, without an affiliation, it is very difficult to publish my work in scientific journals. Without publications I am finding very difficult to have access to a job position with an affiliation. When in 2014 I asked specialists in the field about my theory and the assessments presented in my work I was told that my work could not be considered of relevance since my assessments  have not been verified by previous peer reviewed research. SO, the aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. And therefore, any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found refuting the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.

In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will help me in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.

Perspective

(This post is part of a more complex piece of independent research. I don´t have founding, political agenda or publishing revenues from visits. Any scientist working in disciplines related with the topics that I treat in my blog knows how to judge the contribution that my work could potentially add to the state of knowledge. Since I am in transition looking for a position in research, if you are one of those scientists, by just acknowledging any value you might see from my contribution, would not only make justice to my effort as independent researcher, but ultimately, it will help me to enhance my chances to find a position with resources to further develop my work.

I believe that the hypothesis that I have presented in previous posts in this blog (here, here and here) could help to understand present and possible future scenarios in atmospheric circulation. However, this is an assessment based on observation which needs to be validated throughout open discussion and data gathering. So please feel free to incorporate your thoughts and comments in a constructive manner.

If you feel like sharing this post I would appreciate to have a reference about the place or platform, by private or public message, in order for me to have the opportunity to join the debate and be aware of the repercussion which might generate d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

This work is protected under Intellectual Property laws licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.)

Since October 2013 I have been publishing pieces of research studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.

Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License,  WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.

More assessments presenting chronologically the line of research published in this blog can be accessed in the category Framework and Timeline.

For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out):

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About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Citing This Site "Title", published online "Month"+"Year", retrieved on "Month""Day", "Year" from http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! DOIs can be generated on demand by request at email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com for those publications missing at the ResearchGate profile vinculated with this project. **Author´s profile: Born in 1974. Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my work previous to 2013 as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After 12 years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, in 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my own line of research. In the current competitive scenario, in order to demonstrate my capacities instead of just moving my cv waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I decided to invest my energy and time in opening my own line of research sharing it in this blog. In March 2017 the budget reserved for this project has ended and its weekly basis time frame discontinued until new forms of economic and/or institutional support are incorporated into the project. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this platform and at LinkedIn has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my achievements and that the Intellectual Property Rights generated with the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in similar lines of research. **Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome as well as any approach exploring professional opportunities to be part of.** In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2017, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2017. Filling in or Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/
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64 Responses to Climate and weather December 2015. Another Polar Vortex another Heat Wave? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

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