Climate and weather December 2015. Another Polar Vortex another Heat Wave? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

Climate and weather December 2015. Another Polar Vortex another Heat Wave? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.19966.48968

By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.CV english and españolResumeInterdisciplinary Skills applied in the line of research presented.- Index for all analyses published. – Shares and Feedback at LinkedIn


I believe that this year will share many similarities with winter 2014/15. Based on the thermal conditions and conductivity accumulated in the atmosphere through the summer-fall 2015 this will bring some Stratospheric “Sudden” Warming affecting the polar vortex configuration from the bottom up.

What I expect, but with some uncertainty, is more rain and strong winds reaching tropospheric levels, instead of snow. And that would be an indicator of things going bad. I hope I am wrong about that, cause if I am right there are other consequences.

If rain at the deserts would be a strong indicator of something changing, increasing “rain” instead of snow at higher latitudes would have a post-effect over the atmospheric circulation, and generate feedback loops. I don´t want to go too far and become an alarmist with no valid criteria, so I will only make these comments considering that you have your own opinion.

The most common form of analysis when addressing the conformation of the Polar Vortex is following the idea of considering that its configuration is the responsible for the conditions at Tropospheric level.

Why not the other way around?

Warm masses of air not only get into North latitudes but also in altitude when they become close to the Pole.

17th Dec 2015. 1000hPa Wind conditions, Temperature and Total Precipitable Water in the NH. Image Nullschool.

In 2014 I have already discussed the effect of having middle latitudes being warmed up from a pretty hot, long, summer-like fall period  inducing the type of Polar Vortex configuration we see actually. (ref)

Wind Speed North Hemisphere Polar Vortex_Jet Stream Oct_Nov 2014 DiegoFdezSevilla

2014 10 hPa and 250 hPa conditions. Image from the previous publication: Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on November 14, 2014.

17th Dec 2015 Strat S by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

2015 Dec 10 hPa and 250 hPa conditions

At 70 hPa there is a ring of warm air around the Polar vortex and warmer than lower latitudes.

Greenwich based.


(update Conditions at Stratosphere levels 10 and 70 hPa 3rd Dec 2018)


The warmer mass of air represents not only the conditions in heat transfer capabilities towards its surroundings but also the molecular density of the mass of air containing this energy and the convective processes which represents from low altitudes moving upwards.

Considering the conditions in temperature and thermal conductivity at tropospheric level I can only visualize the movement of warm air towards high latitudes as much as in altitude.

When I look at anomalies I use a baseline between 1979-2000 instead of the one used by NOAA 1981-2010 just because I want to see less interferences from proximity, and yet, both show same pattern, and that is not encouraging.



The movement of tropospheric masses of air into high altitude was easily visible from the Spacial Station at the time when vast extensions of forests were being consumed by wildfires in Canada.

Black smoke Canadian fires stratosferic circulation by Diego FdezSevilla

Image From the previous publication: Wildfires On The Ground and Smoke Up In The Sky (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on July 14, 2015

My interpretation of the behaviour of the Ecosystem as a whole is that the first and fastest medium reacting to the energy entering the system is the atmosphere. And therefore the atmosphere leads, and the events found in the other mediums follow.

The events that I have explored seem to follow this interpretation. And new publications seem to support my point of view.

I look at those anomalies not by the amount of heat in itself but by the molecular composition of the mass of air holding it at such latitudes and time of the year. If this heat is there is because “thermodynamically” it can, the conditions allow it. And that is under my point of view the key in this matter. More radiation reaches out space but the molecular composition do not hold that temperature.

As I have tried to point out in this last publication, same patterns of atmospheric circulation moving masses of air to higher latitudes holding heat seem to be repeating since I started looking at it in 2013, over the Pacific and Atlantic, at tropospheric level as well as at stratospheric level. The gas with highest capacity to do it is water vapour, which furthermore, generates downpour rains and floods when releases part of the energy carried. Lets see how the following events match or not with my line of thought and what other scientists have to say from their point of view. So far, I am worried that things are going as I predicted and they might be just a stage part of a transition towards other changes.

17th Dec 2015 by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

Water vapour circulation globally 7th Sept 2015 DiegoFdezSevilla

Image from the previous publication: Discussing Climatic Teleconnections. Follow Up On My Previous Research (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on October 21, 2015. See also animation Water Vapour Intake in the Arctic and the publication “A climate between Waters

Two new articles claim which I believe support those from my own research:

1-Extending climate predictability beyond El Niño. Date: April 21, 2015 Source: University of Hawaii – SOEST

“Whereas the Pacific was previously considered the main driver of tropical climate variability and the Atlantic and Indian Ocean its slaves, our results document a much more active role for the Atlantic Ocean in determining conditions in the other two ocean basins.

2-New study questions long-held theories of climate variability in the North Atlantic. Atmosphere appears to drive decades-long climate variations. Date: October 15, 2015 Source: University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science.

This new analysis shows that the pattern of the AMO can be accounted for by atmospheric circulation alone, without any role for the ocean circulation.


Since I am in transition between jobs, without an affiliation, it is very difficult to publish my work in scientific journals. Without publications I am finding very difficult to have access to a job position with an affiliation. When in 2014 I asked specialists in the field about my theory and the assessments presented in my work I was told that my work could not be considered of relevance since my assessments  have not been verified by previous peer reviewed research. SO, the aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. And therefore, any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found refuting the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.

In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)

If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will help me in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.


(This post is part of a more complex piece of independent research. I don´t have founding, political agenda or publishing revenues from visits. Any scientist working in disciplines related with the topics that I treat in my blog knows how to judge the contribution that my work could potentially add to the state of knowledge. Since I am in transition looking for a position in research, if you are one of those scientists, by just acknowledging any value you might see from my contribution, would not only make justice to my effort as independent researcher, but ultimately, it will help me to enhance my chances to find a position with resources to further develop my work.

I believe that the hypothesis that I have presented in previous posts in this blog (here, here and here) could help to understand present and possible future scenarios in atmospheric circulation. However, this is an assessment based on observation which needs to be validated throughout open discussion and data gathering. So please feel free to incorporate your thoughts and comments in a constructive manner.

If you feel like sharing this post I would appreciate to have a reference about the place or platform, by private or public message, in order for me to have the opportunity to join the debate and be aware of the repercussion which might generate d.fdezsevilla(at)

This work is protected under Intellectual Property laws licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.)

Since October 2013 I have been publishing pieces of research studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.

Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at) All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License, license and it is being implemented at my profile in researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.

More assessments presenting chronologically the line of research published in this blog can be accessed in the category Framework and Timeline.

For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out):

About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Data policy The products processed by "Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD" are made available to the public for educational and/or scientific purposes, without any fee on the condition that you credit "Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD" as the source. Copyright notice: © Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD 2013-2019 orcid: and the link to its source at diegofdezsevilla.wordpress or permanent DOI found at Reearchgate. Profile and verified scientific activity also at: Should you write any scientific publication on the results of research activities that use Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD products as input, you shall acknowledge the Diego Fdez-Sevilla's PhD Project in the text of the publication and provide an electronic copy of the publication ( If you wish to use the Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD products in advertising or in any commercial promotion, you shall acknowledge the Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Project and you must submit the layout to Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD for approval beforehand ( The work here presented has no economic or institutional support. Please consider to make a donation to support the means for making sustainable the energy, time and resources required. Also any sponsorship or mentoring interested would be welcome. Intellectual Property This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage:! For those publications missing at the ResearchGate profile vinculated with this project DOIs can be generated on demand by request at email: d.fdezsevilla(at) **Author´s profile: Born in 1974. Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my work previous to 2013 as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After 12 years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, in 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my own line of research. In the current competitive scenario, in order to demonstrate my capacities instead of just moving my cv waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I decided to invest my energy and time in opening my own line of research sharing it in this blog. In March 2017 the budget reserved for this project has ended and its weekly basis time frame discontinued until new forms of economic and/or institutional support are incorporated into the project. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this platform and at LinkedIn has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my achievements and that the Intellectual Property Rights generated with the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in similar lines of research. **Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome as well as any approach exploring professional opportunities.** In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2019, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects, don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access and DOIs found at the Framework and Timeline page and ResearchGate. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2018. Filling in or/and Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at ***
This entry was posted in Aerobiology, Biological productivity, Cultural Cognition, Energy Balance, Environmental Resilience, Extreme climatic events, Filling in, Polar vortex and Jet Stream, Water vapour and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

69 Responses to Climate and weather December 2015. Another Polar Vortex another Heat Wave? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

  1. Pingback: Another Heat Wave Another Polar Vortex II … Broken (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

  2. Pingback: From Juno and Jonas to Janet (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

  3. Pingback: Forecast Unusual (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

  4. Pingback: Atmospheric Thermal Conductance (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

  5. Pingback: Just Thinking on Climate (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

  6. Pingback: “The Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything” is … 42 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

  7. Pingback: RECAP on previous assessments (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

  8. Pingback: Worst than a change is a pattern of no change ( by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

  9. Pingback: Orbital Melting vs Kinetic Melting (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

  10. Pingback: The value of having a point of view (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

  11. Pingback: Temp Displacements. Solid Water In A Dessert Which Is Not At The Poles. (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

  12. Pingback: Following The Herd on Assessing Climatic Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

  13. Pingback: Breaking Stereotypes Assessing Climatic Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

  14. Pingback: Statistical Significance and The Scary Side of Being Mild (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

  15. Reshare at linkedin:
    Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D.
    Biologist, Aerobiologist and Environmental Analyst (In transition) Worldwide. (
    Recap December 2015-18.
    In order to validate previous assessments shared in my line of research I constantly re-share publications to be contrasted with current developments as an exercise of “open review”. Once again I want to re-share this publication from December 17, 2015 be reviewed by any person actively following weather developments and atmospheric dynamics. This publication addresses the interpretation of the dynamics seen and the potential to represent current and near future developments, including the ENSO, Mid-Latitudinal circulation and Arctic dynamics, global temperatures, seasonal transitions and the overall global circulation.
    I truly think that we are in the future that models are trying to define.
    Throughout 2018 I have written my assessments in that perspective and by reading those assessments in combination with all previous work will give a full picture.
    Altogether the dynamics seen support the conclusions offered suggesting an increase in mixing processes driving atmospheric circulation. Work fuelled by energy introduced in the atmosphere in free state, absorbed by GHGs and delivered in location by water vapour. hashtag#diegofdezsevilla hashtag#research hashtag#climatechange
    Full index
    – 4 Dec2 018 follow-up.Weekly pattern across Europe overview – warm weather this week, followed by an Arctic outbreak early next week (Dec 4 – 12th)December 3, 2018 December starts with much warmer weather than normal for a large part of Europe and this week should…
    Related analysis from2018
    Arctic Dynamics as part of a Global Pattern in Atmospheric Circulation. Research Follow-up October 2018 (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)
    Due to the lack of funding supporting my activity analysing atmospheric developments I can not be involved full time. Anyone interested in having my take on current dynamics feel free to leave a message here or at the blog. If you or your institution are interested in investing to further develop the project already published at the blog and researchgate you can contact me at


  16. Pingback: 16 May 2019 Follow-Up on Atmospheric Dynamics over Europe and Climatic Implications (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

  17. Pingback: Climate and Weather. Lost in translation? (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

  18. Pingback: Climate. A Matter of Perspective (Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

  19. Pingback: The Thermodynamic “Misunderstood” Coherence of Temperature in a Changing Climate. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.