Feb 2017. Polar Jet Stream and Atmospheric Dynamics. Follow-up over Past and Present Conditions (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)


February 2017. Polar Jet Stream and Atmospheric Dynamics. Follow-up over Past and Present Conditions (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)

File name: Feb 2017. Polar Jet Stream and Atmospheric Dynamics. Follow-up over Past and Present by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.pdf

DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36764.28802

For the last 4 years I have been publishing a line of research addressing environmental topics which has led me to consider integrating all aspects of the global ecosystem in a singular assessment which reflects a synergistic interaction between all of the phases of our environment, liquid (water cycles), solid (land use and cover) and gaseous (Atmosphere and gaseous emissions).

In 2014 I presented a theory about the common thread shared by all those components showcasing the relevance that they play within  variations in the energy flows linking all phases of the ecosystem. Such alteration would have the potential to trigger climatic drifts. Following this assessment I have kept performing assessments looking into the veracity that real time developments would add to my point of view.

There are several publications in this blog which contain the words “follow-up” which can be found easily at the Timeline page.

In particular for the present publication, in April 2016 I published a piece wrapping up conclusions gathered from the assessments carried out to such day.

Atmospheric Dynamics, GHG’s, Thermal Conductivity and Polar Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)

In my research it has become relevant the heterogeneous distribution, composition and behaviour of:

  • monoatomic and polyatomic molecules in the atmosphere;
  • variations in pressure;
  • location of events driven by the strength of winds and thermal contrasts;
  • the enhanced atmospheric mixing ratio due to convective forcing and/or rain events
  • increasing turbulence;
  • the release transport and deposition of aerosols and their behaviour as rain drop nuclei due to their properties over clouds and rain drop formation, energy flows interacting from processes of evaporation and condensation as well as
  • biological evapotranspiration and respiration, and
  • biochemical processes affecting atmospheric composition (photosynthesis).

Furthermore in my research it has become relevant the concentration and time of permanency for different molecular compounds and their different properties interacting in energy flows such as condensable (water) and not condensable gases (GHGs).

All those factors (at least) are relevant since they either define or indicate the state of heat transfer efficiency in the atmosphere.

Derived from addressing synergies and feedbacks between those factors discussed in previous posts, some of my conclusions are:

  • GHGs have the potential of enhancing the thermal conductivity of the atmosphere increasing the capacity of the system to absorb, contain, transport and release energy (in all its forms, kinetic (wind related), thermal (Heat) and potential (mass)) throughout latitudes, longitudes and altitudes.
  • The most important component in the atmosphere carrying such intake of energy is water vapour due to the enhanced thermal conductivity of the atmosphere resultant from GHGs forcing.
  • In a first stage, due to the compartmentalization of atmospheric circulation in the poles thanks to Polar Jet streams, the Equator and Midlatitudes absorb the major change in thermal conductivity (increase in temperature).
  • Due to asymmetric distribution of land surface and GHGs conc between hemispheres, the NH receives the biggest impact than the SH.
  • Once the thermal contrast in the NH Polar Jet Stream is worn out, the polar circulation opens its volume in the atmosphere to accommodate new forms of energy carried by water vapour and GHGs, increasing its thermal conductivity.
  • As a result, the thermal transfer efficiency from mid latitudes would expand into polar latitudes, enhancing heat transfer processes northwards (heat waves) as well as the meltdown of ice caps and precipitation in liquid form out of season (already happened this winter 2015/16).
  • Also, the frequency of masses of air from Polar and Mid Latitudes crossing over the Polar Jet Stream increases the level of exposure to extreme variations jeopardising the development of natural cycles in flora and fauna, when they occur out of season, due to a weak Polar Jet Stream. (see related posts)
  • In other hand, masses of air and pressure systems containing more energy than its surroundings (Thermal/Kinetic/Potential), can create “blocking patterns”, or move higher in altitude instead of dissipating its energy when moving upwards in the atmosphere. Masses of air having the capacity of carrying such thermal energy without dissipating it when moving upwards generate what it is called Sudden Stratospheric Warming events. (also seen through this winter 2016).

My approach towards understanding atmospheric and environmental developments is based on considering that temperature is not only a measure of Energy, it is a measurement of the state for the density of a particular type of matter.

The present conditions and real-time events found in the dynamics of the atmosphere seem to verify those conclusions. Therefore, in the present publication, I offer an assessment over the those features in our atmosphere which I consider relevant in order to allow for the readers to make its own judgement contrasting my previous conclusions with the current atmospheric conditions in order to validate my assessments.

February 2017.

Through the winter 2017 we have seen already a warm event at the stratospheric Polar Vortex,

temp_anom_jfm_nh_2017jan-12-2017-temp-10hpa-used-by-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

Variations in temperature over the North Hemisphere divided longitudinally instead of latitudinally,

temp-anomalies-dec-2016

blog-temp-jan-10-forecast-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

Intrusions of warm mid-latitudinal masses of air getting into the Arctic

ecmwf_t850a_nhem_fh0-2404

And the Polar Jet Stream bending to an extent that it has connected the warm mid latitudinal masses of air with Arctic circulation.

jet-stream-2-feb-2017-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

2nd February 2017. Wind conditions at 250 hPa, Jet Stream level.

polar-jet-stream-9-feb-2017-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd-m

9 February 2017. Wind conditions at 250 hPa, Jet Stream level.

And all of this while at the South Hemisphere, in Australia are suffering a sequence of heat waves disrupting power infrastructures.

gfs-025deg_world-ced_t2_anom gfs-025deg_nh-sat1_t2_anom

Heatwave Assessments. Bureau of Meteorology. Link

Heatwave Situation for Wednesday, Thursday, & Friday (3 days starting 8/02/2017) Extreme heatwave conditions develop over southwest New South Wales, with severe heatwave conditions continuing through much of the inland parts of SA and extend further into southern and western NSW and northern Victoria. The area of low intensity heatwave conditions covers much of South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales, southern Queensland and far southern areas of the Northern Territory.

Heatwave Situation for Wednesday, Thursday, & Friday (3 days starting 8/02/2017)
Extreme heatwave conditions develop over southwest New South Wales, with severe heatwave conditions continuing through much of the inland parts of SA and extend further into southern and western NSW and northern Victoria. The area of low intensity heatwave conditions covers much of South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales, southern Queensland and far southern areas of the Northern Territory.

Australia heat wave 2017 Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD

Heatwave Situation for Thursday, Friday, & Saturday (3 days starting 9/02/2017) Extreme heatwave conditions will shift to the southeast of New South Wales, with severe heatwave conditions continuing through much of the inland parts of SA and extend further over much of NSW and the far north of Victoria. The area of low intensity heatwave conditions continue for much of South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales, southern Queensland and far southern areas of the Northern Territory.

Heatwave Forecasts. Bureau of Meteorology. Link

Heat wave Australia Feb 2017 Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD

Heatwave Situation for Friday, Saturday, & Sunday (3 days starting 10/02/2017) The Extreme heatwave conditions further shift to northeast New South Wales, with the Severe heatwave conditions contracting to the northeastern parts of NSW and southeast Queensland. The area of low intensity heatwave conditions will contract to the northeast of South Australia, much of New South Wales, southern Queensland and far southeastern areas of the Northern Territory.

 Discussion

Something is happening in common between both hemispheres. There is enough energyin the whole planetto show offat the same time”, despite “differences in seasonality“, at “opposite regions of the globe” and “solar Day/Night light exposition“.

lightning-world-2-feb-2017-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

web-lightning-down-under-2-feb-2017-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

web-global-ortho-pmsl-3d-1feb17-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

web-global-ortho-ir-1feb17-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

web-mslp-1-feb-2017-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

Past and Present

Based on the actual conditions I want to share previous assessments from my research in order to compare them with actual developments with the aim to verify its value.

April 6, 2016 Atmospheric Dynamics, GHG’s, Thermal Conductivity and Polar Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)

Present conditions at the Atlantic basin. Feb 2017

_______________________________

Considering the present atmospheric dynamics, would these verify the assessment published throughout the previous years? (see timeline for more)

____________________________________________

Further discussion:

“The influence of kinetic warming at tropospheric level creates instability at higher levels”

Previous assessments discussing this topic:

Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) 14 Nov 2014

Another Heat Wave Another Polar Vortex II … Broken (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)2016/10/25

Present conditions

gfs_z70_nh_f00 gfs_t70_nh_f00

gfs_z10_nh_f00gfs_t10_nh_f00

“Indicating an increase in atmospheric mixing”

Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)2016/09/14

Look at present atmospheric dynamics and compare with previous assessments.

(See also other publications discussing “atmospheric mixing” assessments at the index in the timeline)

Which in turn induces a transition from Orbital Melting towards Kinetic Melting (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. (more on this follow link)

See also

Closing remarks

Since the publication of my theory in Oct 2014, at my blog and several groups here in LinkedIn (like the AGU, NASA and NOA groups), the immense response offered has been silence. In Feb 2015 I published a revision and since then a constant follow-up throughout more than 150 assessments. Still today, the majority of the response is silence. So I thank your open share. I might not use the right vocabulary, or the right data or the right reasoning. But when nobody is able to offer a consensus over what is going on, I wonder, what is right this days?.

Some thoughts

Have you ever considered “atmospheric icebergs” drifting into the “open ocean” of mid-latitudes …?

Considering that I apply the concept of a “open ocean of mid latitudes” as an analogy to describe an atmospheric fluid which has not physical (continental) barriers, actually, we have seen such drift of cold chunks of Arctic air drifting over the European continent and the North American one in the recent past.

“Cold air cannot ascend”

The energy pool contained (kinetic energy) within cold air is so low that cold masses of air move passively. They move when they are pushed, heated up or sucked due to pressure variations from creating a vacuum effect. So, Warm masses of air “move” actively, they contain energy enabling them to expand doing work. Cold masses of air do not have energy available to do work, those do not “move” through doing work, they “drift” passively due to the work carried out by the energy contained by warmer masses of air.

One think might seem clear, the orbital tilt is not enough to justify the warm temperatures measured at the Arctic following gradients of temperature dictated by the Stefan-Boltzman theory, which indicates that we are moving from Orbital seasonality into Kinetic Seasonality. A change triggered from changing the order of the factors.

Also, solar drivers would have an impact following a gradient either in latitude and in altitude. Neither of both gradients are seen in the whole planet. Furthermore, the influence of Solar activity could not be restricted to drive changes differently between seasons or hemispheres, since the influence of the Sun is at global scale (northern and southern polar jet streams, polar vortexes, etc,…) and constantly through the whole motion of the Earth around the Sun independently of the tilt of the Earth. The Earth might tilt but it always has 50% of its surface and volume divided between exposure and shadow. So what happens in one 50% of the Earth has a counterpart through an equal 50% of volume, surface and time.

Ups and Downs on Climatic Assessments. A Matter of Multiple Perspectives from the Same Point of View (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

Solar Forcing in Our Climatic and Atmospheric Dynamics. Location, Location, Location (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)

How much influence has the transformation being forced into all parts of the environment over pre-established energy flows, beyond the NH?

The Sun has been and it is involved in all forms of existence. Nothing new there. But knowing that the Sun interacts with us “through” our environment, like through a prism, how long before we identify the consequences from transforming such prism?

Astronaut Scott Kelly, who returned to Earth in March after spending a year in orbit, captured this stunning sunrise on the 1 March as he prepared to depart the space station aboard a Soyuz spacecraft Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3983662/The-fiery-Earth-ISS-astronaut-captures-stunning-sunset-appears-horizon-fire.html

One last think,

If Energy cannot be created or destroyed, can it be produced or consumed?


(for more assessments, discussions over environmental issues see also categories at the top page for more discussion, e.g. Domesticating Nature)


Author’s Disclosure Declaration

For those unaware of the content offered in this blog I might have to issue a warning: Handle with care. Also with the product obtained from scientific analytical thinking there are traces of personal and professional “passion”, by-products obtained from “original and unpeered grey matter juice” originated from “independent critical thinking”. Also sometimes the packaging might be rough around the edges due to its “unfunded nature”.

4 years ago I joined a discussion which made me realise how much knowledge was settled on the past, built upon past conventions and unable to give answers about present developments in all parts of our environment. From the impact from GMOs, plastics, soils degradation, atmospheric composition, land use and cover, water cycles, … I had addressed scientifically unanswered questions before doing my PhD so I decided to give it a go and to offer my take over those gaps. It has been a pilgrimage to become aware of how much faith and fear is put on scientific publishing above raw understanding and discussion.

I do not know how far this blog will go, however, it represents the assessment of a global process and I expect that past posts will become a description of continuous present for the next years.

Altogether, the body of work which represents the line of research presented in this blog is composed by more than 190 pieces, covering data analyses and conceptual discussions. All those different discussions and assessments presented here build together a single concept. The format applied is the result of making a big effort trying to apply simplistic approaches with the aim to allow a multidisciplinary access. Since the topics treated in my publications have implications for many sectors in the academic and not academic world, with the aim of allowing my research for open review, there is also the objective of allowing access to a multisectorial and multidisciplinary audience sharing interest.

Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.

For a more profound discussion over my assessments and analyses as well as constructive feedback, please use my email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com.

My agenda is simple, I am in transition looking for either funding to grow the research published in this blog or for a job position in any field in which my assets are valued. Behind my research there is nothing more, nothing else than to showcase my capabilities doing what I like, research. I am a methodologist. I don´t look at the color of the result obtained, only at the suitability of the method and the coherence of the result. As I have said before, if I am wrong on my assessments and conclusions, it will be better for all, and my work would showcase my capabilities anyway. A CV shines the goals obtained by anyone, but by publishing here my research, I expose myself and my work to public judgement. There is a difference between being naive and raw. If you see the difference you will understand better my work and my personal position.

The aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. So any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time of at least a month from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found refuting the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.

In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will help me in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.

Perspective

(This post is part of a more complex piece of independent research. I don´t have funding, political agenda or publishing revenues from visits. Any scientist working in disciplines related with the topics that I treat in my blog knows how to judge the contribution that my work could potentially add to the state of knowledge. Since I am in transition looking for a position in research, if you are one of those scientists, by just acknowledging any value you might see from my contribution, would not only make justice to my effort as independent researcher, but ultimately, it will help me to enhance my chances to find a position with resources to further develop my work.

I believe that the hypothesis that I have presented in previous posts in this blog (here, hereand here) could help to understand present and possible future scenarios in atmospheric circulation. However, this is an assessment based on observation which needs to be validated throughout open discussion and data gathering. So please feel free to incorporate your thoughts and comments in a constructive manner.

If you feel like sharing this post I would appreciate to have a reference about the place or platform, by private or public message, in order for me to have the opportunity to join the debate and be aware of the repercussion which might generate d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

This work is protected under Intellectual Property laws licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.)

Since October 2013 I have been publishing pieces of research studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.

Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License,  WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.

More assessments presenting chronologically the line of research published in this blog can be accessed in the category Framework and Timeline.

For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out, updated 09th Dec 2016):

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About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Citing This Site "Title", published online "Month"+"Year", retrieved on "Month""Day", "Year" from http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! DOIs can be generated on demand by request at email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com for those publications missing at the ResearchGate profile vinculated with this project. **Author´s profile: Born in 1974. Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my work previous to 2013 as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After 12 years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, in 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my own line of research. In the current competitive scenario, in order to demonstrate my capacities instead of just moving my cv waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I decided to invest my energy and time in opening my own line of research sharing it in this blog. In March 2017 the budget reserved for this project has ended and its weekly basis time frame discontinued until new forms of economic and/or institutional support are incorporated into the project. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this platform and at LinkedIn has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my achievements and that the Intellectual Property Rights generated with the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in similar lines of research. **Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome as well as any approach exploring professional opportunities to be part of.** In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2017, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2017. Filling in or Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/
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