Summer is what summer brings (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)


Summer is what summer brings (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)

Summer is everything that summer brings. And as the summer keeps coming with heat waves, fires keep finding the perfect environment also.

04 September 2016. Heatwave as summer sultriness returns to Spain.   euroweeklynews.com

THE arrival of September may have brought slightly cooler temperatures to southern Spain, but the baking heat has now returned in earnest.

A high of 33°C was recorded in Malaga City on Sunday, September 4, while inland temperatures reached a scorching 36°C.

Even more heat is expected on Monday, with a yellow alert having been issued for Malaga province between 2pm and 8pm.

The comarcas of Ronda and Antequera are set to swelter as temperatures reach 38°C, and the oven-like conditions will spread to the Costa del Sol, Valle del Guadalhorce and Axarquia, where highs of 37°C are forecast.

In fact, more than half of Spain will be on alert as the week begins, with fifteen provinces handed an orange warning.

These include Almeria, Valencia, Alicante, Murcia, Sevilla, Granada, Huelva, Jaen, Cadiz, Cordoba, Albacete, Toledo, Tarragona and Extremadura.

Tuesday is also expected to be extremely warm, and readers are advised to stay out of the direct sun during the middle of the day while drinking plenty of fluids.

05 Sep 2016

Spain swelters as September heatwave continues. TheLocal.es

Almost the whole of the southern half of Spain has been put on alert for high temperatures as the late summer heatwaves continues.

The national weather agency Aemet, put 17 provinces on amber alert for high temperatures with only the very north of the country escaping what is expected to be the last heatwave of the summer.

The high temperatures are forecast to last until Thursday when storms will bring cooler temperatures.

The high temperatures raise the risk of forest fires and in Javea, south of Valencia, firefighters were struggling to bring blazes thought to be set deliberately, under control. 

Spain forest fires force evacuation of residents and tourists. (BBC news)

Spanish firefighters are battling a huge forest blaze on the Costa Blanca that has forced the evacuation of thousands of people including tourists.

More than 300 firefighters have been deployed to tackle the fire some 120km (75 miles) south-east of Valencia.

Three fires were deliberately started on one of the hottest days of the year, emergency authorities have said.

The temperature in some places is 40C, but officials hope winds that fanned the flames will decrease.

Officials evacuated more than 1,000 people late on Sunday from Javea and the resort of Benitachell.

The fire became more severe on Monday afternoon and moved toward populated areas in Cumbre del Sol, which authorities say they are also evacuating.

This picture shows how close the fire has come to Cumbre del Sol, south-east of Javea. Picture by Michael Edwards.

Valencia emergency services head Jose Maria Angel told Spanish radio that he believed three fires that ripped through vegetation and destroyed buildings were due to “the hand of man… in a very precise way”.

He told reporters aircraft were dumping water on the area every four minutes. About 65 vehicles were also deployed.

BBC Radio presenter Chris Stark was among those caught up in the blaze. “This is crazy. I think my car and maybe my apartment is on fire,” he tweeted.

Image caption Planes flew overhead dropping water as witnesses described the situation as “a warzone”. Image copyright Michael Edwards

At this time of the year, tourists make up a substantial proportion of residents in resorts such as Javea.

More than 300 people are reported to be taking sanctuary in local schools and shelters after emergency services fought the flames throughout Sunday night, supported by aircraft and military units.

In December more than 120 forest fires broke out in northern Spain, some of which officials said may have been started deliberately.

And as it usually happens with heat waves, what happens in the South, it does not just stays in the south. So the heat wave coming to the South of Europe it will also have an influence at higher latitudes.

September 05, 2016

Leave your jacket at home, it’s going to be a warm, warm week. By Patrick Astill Posted at lincolnshireecho.co.uk.

The mercury will hit at least 24C in Lincolnshire the next few days, peaking on Tuesday, although the sunniest day is set to be Thursday.

The weekend may have been something of a disappointment, but the latest forecasts show sunnier weather will be back this week.

It will be dry and sunny in Lincolnshire all week long, according to Accuweather.

Senior meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski said: “Mild air will surge into the United Kingdom this week, making conditions feel much warmer than a typical start to the month.”

After a weekend dominated by rain and a cool breeze, the jet stream will lift northward and start a milder stretch of weather this week.

Temperatures will trend upward early in the week with highs that are 4-8 degrees Celsius (6-12 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal at midweek.

The mild week will give residents ample opportunity to enjoy midday and afternoon outdoor activities without needing a jacket or brolly.

“The dry weather is good for outdoor plans, but rain is needed in southeastern England,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys said.

Warmth will last into the end of the week, only to be cut back over the weekend as a cold front sweeps across the Isles providing cooler, more seasonable temperatures.

 Follow-up on previous assessments

You might enjoy warm temp in Sept at higher latitudes, but there is a catch in such situation.

Temp Anomalies Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhDMy definition of Climate drift is, the deviation from equilibrium of the conditions allowing the perpetuity of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in a micro and macro ecosystem. This situation can be due to changes in any component of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes can be either a change in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality or rates in the flows of energy pre-established OR/AND the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components/forces and energy sinks or sources in any part of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance.

Differently from last summer 2015, this summer 2016, the atmospheric activity in the Equator has shown a behaviour which can not be directly linked with the dynamics usually related with a strong positive or negative ENSO. In July 2016 I published an assessment discussing the developments which could unfold independently from the ENSO status.

After having seen the recent events in the Atlantic and Pacific basins, and based on this definition of climate drift and the assessments presented in this blog, I do believe that there are objective and significant events connected. And that all are behaving under a dynamic which can be explained by the alteration of energy flows in the global system as the result of alterations in the composition and structure of all its parts, liquid (water cycles and water bodies inland and oceanic), gaseous (atmospheric composition and structure) and solid (land and aerosols).

My assessments are among many in the whole spectrum of environmental studies. And we all require feedback and interdisciplinary cross interaction in order to validate our positions.

So your feedback is always welcome at the same time that I try to make my best to reach directly other scientists in related disciplines.

Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D. on Sep 5, 6:44 PM sent via email
================
Dear Sir,
I am performing research in atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies as an independent researcher and I have seen a publication from you that I would like to read full.
I write to you because I am in a transition period without economic and institutional support so I would appreciate if you could send me a copy of your article so I could read it.
I publish my line of research in my blog which is at wordpress as “Filling n Finding out gaps of knowledge” http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com
The publication from you which has called my attention is The anomalous change in the QBO in 2015-2016, Geophysical Research Letters (2016) P. A. Newman1,*, L. Coy1,2, S. Pawson1 and L. R. Lait1,3

In particular, your publication is related with some assessments which I have published in my blog. Based on those I was expecting to see some anomalous behaviour at the Equator so your publication is of relevance for my line of research. One example would be the following publication:
Atmospheric Circulation and the Mixing Zone. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.). Posted on May 26, 2016
https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/2016/05/26/atmospheric-circulation-and-the-mixing-zone-by-diego-fdez-sevilla/

I understand that defending a line of research by publishing in a blog it is far from what the scientific community would consider academically relevant. In my case, without being part of a technical institution my chances to publish in academia are restricted. And without publications my profile lacks one of the most demanded requirements in selection processes to become a valid candidate. So publishing in my blog seemed like the only option to keep my research activities alive looking for an opportunity to stand out from the crowd.

I would appreciate if you could give me some feedback over my assessments but I understand that your position might demand your attention into other matters.
I appreciate your time and I hope you can send me a copy of the article.

Best Regards,
Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.
Diego Fernàndez Sevilla. Dr./Ph.D.
Aerobiologist and Environmental Research Analyst.
Ourense-Spain
Phone: +0034 639649581

A strange thing happened in the stratosphere. September 2, 2016 by Patrick Lynch. phys.org

This disruption to the wind pattern – called the “quasi-biennial oscillation” – did not have any immediate impact on weather or climate as we experience it on Earth’s surface. But it does raise interesting questions for the NASA scientists who observed it: If a pattern holds for six decades and then suddenly changes, what caused that to happen? Will it happen again? What effects might it have?

“The quasi-biennial oscillation is the stratosphere’s Old Faithful,” said Paul Newman, Chief Scientist for Earth Sciences at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, and lead author on a new paper about the event published online in Geophysical Research Letters. “If Old Faithful stopped for a day, you’d begin to wonder about what was happening under the ground.”

Winds in the tropical stratosphere, an atmospheric layer that extends from about 10 to 30 miles above Earth’s surface, circulate the planet in alternating easterly and westerly directions over roughly a two-year period. Westerly winds develop at the top of the stratosphere, and gradually descend to the bottom, about 10 miles above the surface while at the same time being replaced by a layer of easterly winds above them. In turn, the easterlies descend and are replaced by westerlies.

This pattern repeats every 28 months. In the 1960s scientists coined it the “quasi-biennial oscillation.” The record of these measurements, made by weather balloons released in the tropics at various points around the globe, dates to 1953.

The pattern never changed – until late 2015. As the year came to a close, winds from the west neared the end of their typical descent. The regular pattern held that weaker easterly winds would soon replace them. But then the westerlies appeared to move upwards and block the downward movement of the easterlies. This new held for nearly half a year, and by July 2016 the old regime seemed to resume.

“It’s really interesting when nature throws us a curveball,” Newman said.

The quasi-biennial oscillation has a wide influence on stratospheric conditions. The amount of ozone at the equator changes by 10 percent between the peaks of the easterly and westerly phases, while the oscillation also has an impact on levels of polar ozone depletion.

With this disruption now documented, Newman and colleagues are currently focused on studying both its causes and potential implications. They have two hypotheses for what could have triggered it – the particularly strong El Niño in 2015-16 or the long-term trend of rising global temperatures. Newman said the scientists are conducting further research now to figure out if the event was a “black swan,” a once-in-a-generation event, or a “canary in the coal mine,” a shift with unforeseen circumstances, caused by climate change.

______________________________________

The aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. So any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time of at least a month from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found refuting the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.

In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will help me in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.

PerspectiveSince October 2013 I have been studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.

Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License,  WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.

More assessments presenting chronologically the line of research published in this blog can be accessed in the category Framework and Timeline.

For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out):

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About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Citing This Site "Title", published online "Month"+"Year", retrieved on "Month""Day", "Year" from http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! DOIs can be generated on demand by request at email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com for those publications missing at the ResearchGate profile vinculated with this project. **Author´s profile: Born in 1974. Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my work previous to 2013 as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After 12 years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, in 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my own line of research. In the current competitive scenario, in order to demonstrate my capacities instead of just moving my cv waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I decided to invest my energy and time in opening my own line of research sharing it in this blog. In March 2017 the budget reserved for this project has ended and its weekly basis time frame discontinued until new forms of economic and/or institutional support are incorporated into the project. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this platform and at LinkedIn has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my achievements and that the Intellectual Property Rights generated with the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in similar lines of research. **Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome as well as any approach exploring professional opportunities to be part of.** In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2017, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2017. Filling in or Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/
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22 Responses to Summer is what summer brings (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)

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  22. Pingback: Breaking Stereotypes Assessing Climatic Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

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