Climate Drift, The True Meaning of Things and the Drift of Those. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)
At the publication Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Drift. Are we there yet? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) 2015/07/02 one commenter (thanks Jaime) called my attention over the application of the words “Climate Drift” in my publications. And I was asked: Are you implying a rigorous definition of this terminology?
I want to leave my answer as a topic on its own:
I am not sure on what is the “rigorous” definition of “climate Drift” that you might refer to.
As part of the main body of the article I am trying to highlight how difficult it might seen to classify a “climate change” without knowing what is the “change” we are looking for. Is it a “statistically significant” “change”? for which variables? in which range of time? and location? which margin or threshold is defined and considered as the tipping point marking a “change”?.
However, while we are looking for such extreme event to show up in charts, diagrams and models, followed by significant correlations between them, displacements from previous states of equilibrium, are being observed in different parts of the environment.
Differently from numerical models which rely on conceptualizations incorporated in the design of the algorithms applied, biological niches appear indicating the state of a global interaction between biotic and none-biotic components. A niche refers to the way in which an organism fits into an ecological community or ecosystem. Through the process of natural selection, a niche is the evolutionary result of a species’ morphological, physiological, and behavioural adaptations to its surroundings.
When natural species and niches start to appear where they were not before or by different numbers, it reflects a change in the conditions of the environment where they start to develop.
These populations can migrate following the opportunistic generation of new spaces suitable for their development. Or even, in the same niche, some changes in environmental pressures can change the dominance between species since some may adapt faster than others to the new conditions.
With respect to climatic regimes and niches, variability is part of the dynamic process allowing regeneration and perpetuation of a mature ecosystem in equilibrium. Like the succession of the seasons e.g. summer and winter, helps to control the pressure exerted between populations which perform differently in different conditions. The variability incorporated in these conditions becomes a mechanism of regulation moving around a pivoting point which allows the integrity of the system.
When the climatic conditions linked with the development of a specific niche moves from the pivoting point far enough, the synergistic balance in the use and regeneration of resources and energy flows (biotic and none biotic) gets disrupted and requires modifications in the level of performance for all the components of the system.
Looking for what it might be consider the “rigorous” terminology of climate drift I have found that “Stouffer and Dixon (1998) defined climate drift as an unforced trend away from some initial state, with the trend not being part of normally occurring variability about a constant mean state.”
My point of view is that, if there is no agreement about using “climate change” as a terminology addressing the implications from seeing modifications (composition and behaviour) in so many parts of our environment (land, atmosphere/air and water (liquid, solid and vapour)), at least we might find common ground in identifying and/or studying the migration or “drift” of our climatic niches from previous regimes, either by addressing magnitudes, behaviour and/or location.
Biological seasons (like breeding seasons or pollen seasons) are driven by thermodynamic fluctuations. Similarly occurs in the atmosphere with seasons defined by hurricanes, tornadoes, etc.
After my Master in Environmental Biology in 2001, in 2002 I started to be involved in the study of atmospheric dynamics driving the release and transport of biological particles. In this field called Aerobiology I did my PhD researching how atmospheric conditions affect the aerodynamic behaviour of pollen grains when airborne. And in 2008, I performed research (later published a paper) highlighting modifications in biological pollen seasons (start earlier and ends later) due to climatic alterations triggered from urbanization levels. As an Environmental Biologist whom became involved in Aerobiological studies, since 2002 I have been observing and studying atmospheric dynamics but more precisely, in the last 4 years. And I believe that all type of seasons, including those characterised by weather events, are shifting their behaviour becoming more erratic.
My answer is not short but I hope that I have addressed the point and clarify my take on this.
My definition of Climate drift is, the deviation from equilibrium of the conditions allowing the perpetuity of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in a micro and macro ecosystem. This situation can be due to changes in any component of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes can be either a change in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality or rates in the flows of energy pre-established OR/AND the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components/forces and energy sinks or sources in any part of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance.
My answer is:
- Matching Features Between Land Surface and Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) 2015/04/23
- Biological Productivity, Amazonia and Atmospheric Circulation. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) 2014/12/22
- SOILS. The Skeleton Holding The Muscle On Our Ecosystems (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) 2015/12/09
- Inland sanctuaries of water vapour for atmospheric circulation. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) 2014/08/06
- Cooking an environment (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) 2013/11/07
- Climate variability and energy balance. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) 2013/11/27
- Tangled in Words. Atmospheric Dynamics, Stefan Boltzmann Calculations and Energy Balance (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) 2016/03/10
The timeless meaning of things
The timeless meaning of things does not exist. Like anything meanings change, evolve and adapt to new uses and applications as well as with their new implications in their surroundings.
One major scenario in scientific developments raising from this situation comes with the meaning given to what it is considered “normal”. The conceptualization of what can be assumed as “normal” has been changing through the recent years when defining the conditions for the SST defining the ENSO (Due to a significant warming trend in the Niño-3.4 region since 1950, El Niño and La Niña episodes that are defined by a single fixed 30-year base period (e.g. 1971-2000) are increasingly incorporating longer-term trends that do not reflect interannual ENSO variability. In order to remove this warming trend, CPC is adopting a new strategy to update the base period.) and also the conditions of Sea Ice cover in the Arctic. ( Aug. 19, 2016 NASA Monitors the ‘New Normal’ of Sea Ice)
Back in May 2016 I wrote an article titled “Scientifically Challenged“. As part of it I wrote:
Our Knowledge. Made by the new news on the News.
The news, those events which are defined by being “new”, unprecedented or rare. They are all over around us. In all type of media and in scientific publications. They make “the news” because they are… new.
So how should we call those events for which their significance lies on being repeatedly on the news? Are those still News? When do they become something else?
Does the repetition of an event or series of them create a new normality?
In that case, how should we call such transition? … Normalization …?
Time ago, a friend of mine brought to me the attention over the difference between “frequent” and “normal”.
We might see events happening around us, from social behaviour, political “scenarios” or weather events, which become so frequent that they become located in a blurred position, since, by their increase in frequency, they almost feel like the “new normal”. They are on the news, again, and again, so their presence in the news is so “frequent” that they are part of the “normal” display. And, at the same time, if an event does not shows in the news of any media, their existence is out of the description of the reality that we all believe to be part of.
Such ambiguity has created concepts we all are familiar with, but over which we lack control subconsciously. Consciously we will recognise that we know about them but we might not be aware of how much impact it has over our judgement and behaviour.
Sure most of you might be familiar with the following question: “If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound? Similarly, if somebody holds relevant knowledge, does it get used if there is nobody around to recognise it?
It is equally bright the one who holds a good idea to as the one who can recognise it.
The True Meaning of Things
In this blog I have performed research over those aspects linked with environmental issues, including observational analyses and data analyses but also, about the aspects behind the drivers carried from differences in perspectives created from conceptual and cultural cognition. All those aspects play roles building a conceptual framework driving all the rest of the analyses and assessments made. Either directly or indirectly.
One of the major aspect behind all debates, in all fields, including science, is the search for the “true meaning of things”. The holy grail of any type of thought, and of course, one of the main causes of entanglement and constraint in scientific and environmental debates.
Everybody wants to know, and use, the true meaning of things. But, what does it make it and how and where can you find it?
It is my belief that the main challenge is not where or whom has the true meaning of things, the real question is how can we train ourselves to identify it and recognise it independently from its source?
Last minute update (3 Sept 2016, 00.26 GMT+2)
There is something which is part of this topic and involves me directly.
Some people believe that the source of the “true meaning of things” is found in the Scientific Literature, provided by Authorized Sources and by Authorized Names.
Today more than ever, there is a vibrant debate about the value of the publications being made all over the different media platforms. Some people defend the source of peer review publications as the only one with the rightful recognition of offering true meaning of things.
Such attitude is comprehensible since it represents what it has been the result of an effort from many scientists, through many years, to bring credibility into the production and implementation of scientific inputs. To publish a paper was a recognition for a value incorporated in the state of knowledge. Every paper was so valuable that used to integrate in its bibliography the most relevant works performed in its discipline.
Nowadays, the amount of papers being published are so vast that it is impossible to find replicated such accuracy. Meanwhile the increase in the numbers of papers being submitted have suffered an explosion in the recent decades those numbers do not match with the number of scientific peers holding a position in research. So the process of peer reviewing has “changed” in order to accommodate such increase in submissions and the pressure from having “to deliver“, in both sides, as peer reviewer and as writer, under the law of “publish or perish”. So it has become a frequent situation that many papers being published undergo a much more deep process of review through criticism once those are released than throughout the peer reviewing process. However, the posterior process of scrutiny does not require for the authors to engage in the discussion and therefore, many papers and authors reach their goal by been just published.
In the line of research published in this blog I have chosen a different approach, where the exposure to criticism and discussion is applied as a process to verify the value of a piece of research before exploring the idea of publication.
After having worked in academia since 2002, going through a PhD and also outside academia, in 2012 I found myself without a permanent job position. The option to keep moving came with sporadic jobs in consultancy which, however, were becoming more sporadic in an economic recession. When I looked at my options to keep my career in the path of research I faced a reality slap.
When I was working as a researcher I had so tight schedules that I didn´t focused my attention on publishing papers. So I found myself without articles which would make my CV competitive in selection processes related with performing research. But furthermore, since I was not part of a research institution, I could not increase my publications due to the restrictions in the academic system applied to have access to publish work (status and economic).
Under such scenario I decided to demonstrate my analytical skills and productive capabilities applying my own perspective and methodology building a line of research and body of knowledge, open for public review and scrutiny, published in the only way I had possible, a blog.
The assessment that I publish in this blog are generated with the aim to make a contribution into the state of knowledge, by developing arguments strong enough and supported by data and analyses which build the credentials required to give veracity to my conclusions.
But further than my intentions, there is no much I can do about judging the “true meaning” and value of my work. That is not for me to decide but for you to judge and acknowledge if what you find in my work deserves to be considered worthy of being part of the discussion about the “true meaning of things” found in Scientific Literature, provided by an Authorized Source and by an Authorized Name.
The aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. So any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time of at least a month from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found refuting the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.
In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com
If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will help me in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.
Since October 2013 I have been studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.
Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License, WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.
More assessments presenting chronologically the line of research published in this blog can be accessed in the category Framework and Timeline.
For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out):
- News from an Ecosystem (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 20, 2015
- Talking about climate (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 12, 2015
- A roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 14, 2015
- Domesticating Nature. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 7, 2015
- Matching Features Between Land Surface and Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 23, 2015
- Climate. Looking at the forest for the trees (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 9, 2015
- Steering climate´s course (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 27, 2015
- Drops of Weather. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 7, 2015
- Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Posted on February 10, 2015. http://wp.me/p403AM-to
- Meteorological Outlook Feb 2015 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on February 7, 2015. http://wp.me/p403AM-sU
- Probability in the atmospheric circulation dictating the Weather (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on January 15, 2015. http://wp.me/p403AM-rm
- Gathering data to make visible the invisible (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on December 22, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-pN
- State of the Polar Vortex. Broken? From 29 Nov 2014 to 5th Jan 2015 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla). Posted on November 29, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-o7
- Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on November 14, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-mt
- New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on October 21, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-k3
- In climate it is becoming Less probable to not have a High probability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 29, 2015
- Drinking from the source (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 5, 2015
- Communication takes more than just publishing thoughts. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 9, 2015
- Extreme climatic events, implications for projections of species distributions and ecosystem structure (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 18, 2015
- The scope of Environmental Science and scientific thought. From Thought-driven to Data-driven, from Critical Thinking to Data Management. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 26, 2015
- Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Drift. Are we there yet? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 2, 2015
- Lateral thinking. From Micro to Macro (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 4, 2015
- Something for the curious minds. Climate and Streamlines (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 17, 2015
- Solar Activity and Human Activity, Settling Their Environmental Liability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 24, 2015
- Atmospheric composition and thermal conductivity? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)August 6, 2015
- Latitudinal barriers and typhoons (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)August 13, 2015
- The Earth is Ticking (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)August 20, 2015
- What if, the relevant bit lies hidden on identifying the pattern behind similarities instead of trying to match anomalies? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)September 3, 2015
- A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla).September 8, 2015
- Sensing Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)September 22, 2015
- InFormAtion. The “Act” of “Giving Form” to “Knowledge” (by Diego fdez-Sevilla)September 30, 2015
- Arctic Intake of Water Vapour (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 7, 2015
- SST Anomalies and Heat Waves. Are They Not All Just Heat Displacements? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 16, 2015
- Discussing Climatic Teleconnections. Follow Up On My Previous Research (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 21, 2015
- Follow-up on Arctic circulation 30 Oct 2015 ( by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 30, 2015
- There is Ice or Frost In Antarctica? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)November 5, 2015
- Starts Raining Drops of Winter at Mid-Latitudes. The new Autumn? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)November 10, 2015
- Press release. Ask NASA (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)November 12, 2015
- Following the Behaviour of the Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)November 19, 2015
- What Is Wrong With The Concept “Bio”? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)November 26, 2015
- Energy. Looking For Sources of Something We Waste. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)December 3, 2015
- SOILS. The Skeleton Holding The Muscle On Our Ecosystems (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)December 9, 2015
- Could It Be El Niño The New “Wolf” Coming? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)December 11, 2015
- Climate and weather December 2015. Another Polar Vortex another Heat Wave? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)December 18, 2015
- New insides on old concepts (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)December 23, 2015
- Atmospheric Dynamics And Shapes (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)January 13, 2016
- European weather. Old News, Same News? by Diego Fdez-SevillaJanuary 15, 2016
- Observational events on atmospheric dynamics. A follow-up assessment over the theory proposed over Energetic gradients by Diego Fdez-Sevilla.January 29, 2016
- North American Weather. Old News, Same News? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)January 20, 2016
- Observed Atmospheric Dynamics. A follow-up assessment over the theory proposed on Energetic gradients by Diego Fdez-Sevilla.January 29, 2016
- (updated 11-18 Feb2016) Polar Vortex, Old News, Same News? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)February 4, 2016
- Forecasting Past Events. Snow Coming to Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)February 12, 2016
- Do You Believe in the Value of Your Work? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)February 23, 2016
- Forecasts For Ecosystems (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)February 25, 2016
- Seasonality Spring 2016. Continuous follow-up on my previous research assessing atmospheric dynamics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 3, 2016
- Tangled in Words. Atmospheric Dynamics, Stefan Boltzmann Calculations and Energy Balance (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 10, 2016
- Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 22, 2016
- Plant growth, CO2, Soil and Nutrients. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 31, 2016
- Atmospheric Dynamics, GHG’s, Thermal Conductivity and Polar Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 6, 2016
- Feedback. Have Your Say. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 14, 2016
- Plant an Idea and Then a Tree… But Which Ones? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 22, 2016
- (updated 28/April/2016) Severe weather warning 27 April 2016 USA (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 28, 2016
- Research Update May 2016 (by Diego Fdez-sevilla)May 6, 2016
- Scientifically Challenged (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 12, 2016
- Another roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 13, 2015May 13, 2016
- Our Environment. One Vision and Many Thoughts. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 20, 2016
- Atmospheric Circulation and the Mixing Zone. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 26, 2016
- When Temperature Becomes Something Else (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 30, 2016
- Settled Science (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 9, 2016
- The Butterfly Effect on Arctic Circulation. (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 10, 2016
- Who has the right and the responsibility to discuss Climate as a topic of debate? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)June 20, 2016
- Snap shot of a day 22 June 2016. Follow-up on previous research over atmospheric dynamics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)June 22, 2016
- Atmospheric mixing. Indian Basin June 2016 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)July 1, 2016
- Research From The Bench (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) July 6, 2016
- Every Little Counts (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) July 13, 2016
- Dream Your Way Out (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) July 15, 2016
- Atmospheric Dynamics. Foreseeable, At The Moment. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) July 19, 2016
- The Colour of Intelligence (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) July 20, 2016
- Climbing The Hill Of Development (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) July 27, 2016
- Climbing the Hill of Acknowledgement. Peer reviewed articles supporting previous assessments and research published in this blog. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) July 28, 2016
- Environmental Questions and Answers for Petrol Fans (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) August 2, 2016
- What is on the menu? “Plastic” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) August 4, 2016
- The Compartmentalization of Evolution (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) August 5, 2016
- Ups and Downs on Climatic Assessments. A Matter of Multiple Perspectives from the Same Point of View (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) August 12, 2016
- Climate. The Long Distance Between Science And Politics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) August 21, 2016