Climate Drift, The True Meaning of Things and the Drift of Those. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

Posted on September 2, 2016 by

Climate Drift, The True Meaning of Things and the Drift of Those. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

At the publication Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Drift. Are we there yet? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) 2015/07/02 one commenter (thanks Jaime) called my attention over the application of the words “Climate Drift” in my publications. And I was asked: Are you implying a rigorous definition of this terminology?

I want to leave my answer as a topic on its own:

I am not sure on what is the “rigorous” definition of “climate Drift” that you might refer to.

As part of the main body of the article I am trying to highlight how difficult it might seen to classify a “climate change” without knowing what is the “change” we are looking for. Is it a “statistically significant” “change”? for which variables? in which range of time? and location? which margin or threshold is defined and considered as the tipping point marking a “change”?.

However, while we are looking for such extreme event to show up in charts, diagrams and models, followed by significant correlations between them, displacements from previous states of equilibrium, are being observed in different parts of the environment.
Differently from numerical models which rely on conceptualizations incorporated in the design of the algorithms applied, biological niches appear indicating the state of a global interaction between biotic and none-biotic components. A niche refers to the way in which an organism fits into an ecological community or ecosystem. Through the process of natural selection, a niche is the evolutionary result of a species’ morphological, physiological, and behavioural adaptations to its surroundings.

When natural species and niches start to appear where they were not before or by different numbers, it reflects a change in the conditions of the environment where they start to develop.

These populations can migrate following the opportunistic generation of new spaces suitable for their development. Or even, in the same niche, some changes in environmental pressures can change the dominance between species since some may adapt faster than others to the new conditions.

With respect to climatic regimes and niches, variability is part of the dynamic process allowing regeneration and perpetuation of a mature ecosystem in equilibrium. Like the succession of the seasons e.g. summer and winter, helps to control the pressure exerted between populations which perform differently in different conditions. The variability incorporated in these conditions becomes a mechanism of regulation moving around a pivoting point which allows the integrity of the system.

When the climatic conditions linked with the development of a specific niche moves from the pivoting point far enough, the synergistic balance in the use and regeneration of resources and energy flows (biotic and none biotic) gets disrupted and requires modifications in the level of performance for all the components of the system.

Looking for what it might be consider the “rigorous” terminology of climate drift I have found that “Stouffer and Dixon (1998) defined climate drift as an unforced trend away from some initial state, with the trend not being part of normally occurring variability about a constant mean state.”

My point of view is that, if there is no agreement about using “climate change” as a terminology addressing the implications from seeing modifications (composition and behaviour) in so many parts of our environment (land, atmosphere/air and water (liquid, solid and vapour)), at least we might find common ground in identifying and/or studying the migration or “drift” of our climatic niches from previous regimes, either by addressing magnitudes, behaviour and/or location.

Biological seasons (like breeding seasons or pollen seasons) are driven by thermodynamic fluctuations. Similarly occurs in the atmosphere with seasons defined by hurricanes, tornadoes, etc.

After my Master in Environmental Biology in 2001, in 2002 I started to be involved in the study of atmospheric dynamics driving the release and transport of biological particles. In this field called Aerobiology I did my PhD researching how atmospheric conditions affect the aerodynamic behaviour of pollen grains when airborne. And in 2008, I performed research (later published a paper) highlighting modifications in biological pollen seasons (start earlier and ends later) due to climatic alterations triggered from urbanization levels. As an Environmental Biologist whom became involved in Aerobiological studies, since 2002 I have been observing and studying atmospheric dynamics but more precisely, in the last 4 years. And I believe that all type of seasons, including those characterised by weather events, are shifting their behaviour becoming more erratic.

I discuss it also in the post “Aug 2016 Follow-up on previous assessments. Atmospheric Dynamics, Temperature Displacements, Atmospheric Mixing (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)” Posted on August 26, 2016

My answer is not short but I hope that I have addressed the point and clarify my take on this.

My definition of Climate drift is, the deviation from equilibrium of the conditions allowing the perpetuity of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in a micro and macro ecosystem. This situation can be due to changes in any component of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes can be either a change in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality or rates in the flows of energy pre-established OR/AND the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components/forces and energy sinks or sources in any part of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance.

Judi Krzyzanowski, Ph.D. asked me the following comment: “Urbanization and land-use changes in general may be playing more of a role in our changing climate than we tend to discuss”. “Could these changes explain some of the prediction anomalies or ‘erratic’ behaviour?”

My answer is:

Yes, I believe so.

I have addressed this question through many of the assessments that I have published. I will just point out some so you can find a more elaborated answer to this question:

The timeless meaning of things

The timeless meaning of things does not exist. Like anything meanings change, evolve and adapt to new uses and applications as well as with their new implications in their surroundings.

One major scenario in scientific developments raising from this situation comes with the meaning given to what it is considered “normal”. The conceptualization of what can be assumed as “normal” has been changing through the recent years when defining the conditions for the SST defining the ENSO (Due to a significant warming trend in the Niño-3.4 region since 1950, El Niño and La Niña episodes that are defined by a single fixed 30-year base period (e.g. 1971-2000) are increasingly incorporating longer-term trends that do not reflect interannual ENSO variability. In order to remove this warming trend, CPC is adopting a new strategy to update the base period.) and also the conditions of Sea Ice cover in the Arctic. ( Aug. 19, 2016 NASA Monitors the ‘New Normal’ of Sea Ice)

Back in May 2016 I wrote an article titled “Scientifically Challenged“. As part of it I wrote:

Our Knowledge. Made by the new news on the News.

The news, those events which are defined by being “new”, unprecedented or rare. They are all over around us. In all type of media and in scientific publications. They make “the news” because they are… new.

So how should we call those events for which their significance lies on being repeatedly on the news? Are those still News? When do they become something else?

Does the repetition of an event or series of them create a new normality?

In that case, how should we call such transition? … Normalization …?

Time ago, a friend of mine brought to me the attention over the difference between “frequent” and “normal”.

We might see events happening around us, from social behaviour, political “scenarios” or weather events, which become so frequent that they become located in a blurred position, since, by their increase in frequency, they almost feel like the “new normal”. They are on the news, again, and again, so their presence in the news is so “frequent” that they are part of the “normal” display. And, at the same time, if an event does not shows in the news of any media, their existence is out of the description of the reality that we all believe to be part of.

Such ambiguity has created concepts we all are familiar with, but over which we lack control subconsciously. Consciously we will recognise that we know about them but we might not be aware of how much impact it has over our judgement and behaviour.

Sure most of you might be familiar with the following question: “If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound? Similarly, if somebody holds relevant knowledge, does it get used if there is nobody around to recognise it?

It is equally bright the one who holds a good idea to as the one who can recognise it.

The True Meaning of Things

In this blog I have performed research over those aspects linked with environmental issues, including observational analyses and data analyses but also, about the aspects behind the drivers carried from differences in perspectives created from conceptual and cultural cognition. All those aspects play roles building a conceptual framework driving all the rest of the analyses and assessments made. Either directly or indirectly.

One of the major aspect behind all debates, in all fields, including science, is the search for the “true meaning of things”. The holy grail of any type of thought, and of course, one of the main causes of entanglement and constraint in scientific and environmental debates.

Everybody wants to know, and use, the true meaning of things. But, what does it make it and how and where can you find it?

It is my belief that the main challenge is not where or whom has the true meaning of things, the real question is how can we train ourselves to identify it and recognise it independently from its source?

Last minute update (3 Sept 2016, 00.26 GMT+2)

There is something which is part of this topic and involves me directly.

Some people believe that the source of the “true meaning of things” is found in the Scientific Literature, provided by Authorized Sources and by Authorized Names.

Today more than ever, there is a vibrant debate about the value of the publications being made all over the different media platforms. Some people defend the source of peer review publications as the only one with the rightful recognition of offering true meaning of things.

Such attitude is comprehensible since it represents what it has been the result of an effort from many scientists, through many years, to bring credibility into the production and implementation of scientific inputs. To publish a paper was a recognition for a value incorporated in the state of knowledge. Every paper was so valuable that used to integrate in its bibliography the most relevant works performed in its discipline.

Nowadays, the amount of papers being published are so vast that it is impossible to find replicated such accuracy. Meanwhile the increase in the numbers of papers being submitted have suffered an explosion in the recent decades those numbers do not match with the number of scientific peers holding a position in research. So the process of peer reviewing has “changed” in order to accommodate such increase in submissions and the pressure from having “to deliver“, in both sides, as peer reviewer and as writer,  under the law of “publish or perish”. So it has become a frequent situation that many papers being published undergo a much more deep process of review through criticism once those are released than throughout  the peer reviewing process. However, the posterior process of scrutiny does not require for the authors to engage in the discussion and therefore, many papers and authors reach their goal by been just published.

In the line of research published in this blog I have chosen a different approach, where the exposure to criticism and discussion is applied as a process to verify the value of a piece of research before exploring the idea of publication.

After having worked in academia since 2002, going through a PhD and also outside academia, in 2012 I found myself without a permanent job position. The option to keep moving came with sporadic jobs in consultancy which, however, were becoming more sporadic in an economic recession. When I looked at my options to keep my career in the path of research I faced a reality slap.

When I was working as a researcher I had so tight schedules that I didn´t focused my attention on publishing papers. So I found myself without articles which would make my CV competitive in selection processes related with performing research. But furthermore, since I was not part of a research institution, I could not increase my publications due to the restrictions in the academic system applied to have access to publish work (status and economic).

Under such scenario I decided to demonstrate my analytical skills and productive capabilities applying my own perspective and methodology building a line of research and body of knowledge, open for public review and scrutiny, published in the only way I had possible, a blog.

The assessment that I publish in this blog are generated with the aim to make a contribution into the state of knowledge, by developing arguments strong enough and supported by data and analyses which build the credentials required to give veracity to my conclusions.

But further than my intentions, there is no much I can do about judging the “true meaning” and value of my work. That is not for me to decide but for you to judge and acknowledge if what you find in my work deserves to be considered worthy of being part of the discussion about the “true meaning of things” found in Scientific Literature, provided by an Authorized Source and by an Authorized Name.

______________________________________

The aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. So any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time of at least a month from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found refuting the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.

In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will help me in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.

PerspectiveSince October 2013 I have been studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.

Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License,  WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.

More assessments presenting chronologically the line of research published in this blog can be accessed in the category Framework and Timeline.

For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out):

 

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About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Citing This Site "Title", published online "Month"+"Year", retrieved on "Month""Day", "Year" from http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! DOIs can be generated on demand by request at email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com for those publications missing at the ResearchGate profile vinculated with this project. **Author´s profile: Born in 1974. Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my work previous to 2013 as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After 12 years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, in 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my own line of research. In the current competitive scenario, in order to demonstrate my capacities instead of just moving my cv waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I decided to invest my energy and time in opening my own line of research sharing it in this blog. In March 2017 the budget reserved for this project has ended and its weekly basis time frame discontinued until new forms of economic and/or institutional support are incorporated into the project. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this platform and at LinkedIn has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my achievements and that the Intellectual Property Rights generated with the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in similar lines of research. **Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome as well as any approach exploring professional opportunities to be part of.** In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2017, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2017. Filling in or Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/
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24 Responses to Climate Drift, The True Meaning of Things and the Drift of Those. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

  1. jaimesal says:
    September 2, 2016 at 20:06

    Diego, as usual you have made a very complete analysis of this scientific issue, including the biological dimension in it. Thanks for your response to my enquiry.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

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