Winter Outlook 2017/18 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)
I would like to recapture previous comments and connect my thoughts with the latest developments occurring between 14-17 October 2017 with reference to the hurricane Ophelia and its track northwards.
If Ophelia would be in the Caribbean it would just increase the number of Hurricanes for this season. And yet, what it makes it relevant is its location, timing, resilience, behaviour and the track followed.
The pivoting point shared through previous assessments and current dynamics is found in the weak state of the Polar Jet Stream at the Atlantic basin. A location which has increased its activity releasing the Pacific basin from some pressure. As a result we have seen strong cyclonic activity moving from west to east, from the Equatorial Pacific, across the Caribbean and getting into mid Atlantic. See also related post “Statistical significance“.
(animations from previous assessments)
From a human point of view, by being over the Ocean or close to land makes the difference between a major event or just an atmospheric rarity.
Under the scenario being built upon my previous assessments over atmospheric dynamics I see Ophelia as a perfect example explaining what my worries are about.
It is not about seeing a linear progression in strength for the repetition of previous events happening in similar location. The worrisome and feasible events I am concerned about are the increase in energetic dynamics spread through new locations, like seeing an increase of tornadoes in the Mediterranean Area, like South Spain or Italy, which could point to a progression towards seeing them becoming more frequent inland over Europe. It’s not seeing elephants migrating north, but mosquitoes what worries me.
While everyone is looking at the white elephant in the room, the Arctic is being inflated like a hot balloon.
The resultant scenario delivered last year and this year 2017 shows the similar conclusions. The Arctic keeps receiving the pressure from Midlatitudinal forcing, inducing warm anomalies. Such forcing behaviour has an impact over the Hadley circulation affecting two sides, the equatorial dynamics and the displacement of Arctic masses of air.
From such assessment I consider a link between the previous strong high in the Atlantic promoting higher than usual temperatures through September and beginning of October in the Iberian peninsula, the formation and track of the hurricane Ophelia and the resultant contrast between the anomaly in temp at the Arctic and the mild temp anomaly in the North Hemisphere as a whole.
Comparing last year situation over October, either if the cyclonic low comes from the North southward or from the Tropics northward, both share a deep impact in the column of the atmosphere, both share paths and also resilience dissipating their energy. And that is for me something to be considered relevant as part of the scenario which my research describes, including the developments in snow and ice cover at the Arctic and Antarctic poles.
In February 21, 2014 I wrote my first assessment over climatic alterations pointing out the need to focus the attention over the enhanced capacity of the atmosphere to contain water vapour and the repercussion over energetic dynamics through the atmosphere
In this publication in my blog I offered in a nutshell what it was my assessment about the global state of the atmospheric dynamics, the climatic implications for the environment and the restrictions behind modelling. At the time it might seem like clatter in the echo chamber of things. Even in Dec 2014 Prof. Jennifer Francis replied to me claiming that
“many of your statements have not yet been verified by peer-reviewed research.
But furthermore, she acknowledged her own distant position and lack of understanding over my line of research by claiming that:
“To get funding or a job in this field, however, will require a deeper understanding of the state of the research, knowledge of atmospheric dynamics (not just suggestive examples and anecdotal evidence), and statements supported by published (or your own) analysis.”
(email exchange in full here)
Therefore, throughout the next three years I looked at all of my arguments embedded in those little phrases, looking for methods and sustainable analysis capable of building a message strong enough to make them worth of attention. I have sliced each argument in individual assessments in order to address their significant meaning. Now that the project has gone through all those aspects offering assessments for each one separately and as a whole, I believe that this little piece of writing will recover the original meaning with which it was intended.
|February 21, 2014||Resilience in our models (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.27974.98884
In our global ecosystem, there is a debate about if there has been an increase in heat or temperature. Which would be the mechanisms of resilience in our global environment working to absorb or release those increases in heat or temperature? I would go with water as the heat/energy carrier and the weather systems as the physical mechanics to redistribute and release heat/energy. Like stirring a spoon to cold down your soup. So I like to see the use of “storage of energy by the climate system” used to determine the range of climate perturbations in the IPCC report on Climate.
In order to ensure the veracity of my claims over its original day of publication and content, this link points to the web archive record of it. Also available at the blog with updated links to posterior content:
On October 21, 2014 I published my theory describing the mechanisms involved and some of the repercussions derived:
|October 21, 2014||(Updated 22/Dec/14) New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4859.3440“Based on my theory, Greenhouse gases store energy which leads to an increase in global temperature. This increase in T, altogether with synergistic effects of aerosols, allows more water vapor to be contained in the atmosphere, which consequently adds more energy into the atmosphere in form of latent heat and kinetic energy.”|
All following publications are just different attempts to describe real time developments showing links with my ideas.
|February 10, 2015||(UPGRADED 24th March2015) Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1975.7602/1|
|March 23, 2017||Final Review in Progress. March 2017. From ENSO to Scientific Thinking by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.33915.82726|
For More related posts in this topic see timeline page to consult the index with all previous assessments published by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. (author’s email: firstname.lastname@example.org)
After finishing my Masters in Biology Environmental Science in 2001, I have performed research at PhD level and worked inside and outside academia at institutions linked with environmental research and management. In 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new job’s position.
In such competitive scenario, instead of just moving my cv between desks waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I used it as an advantageous standing point to start and develop independent research in a blog in which I could open my own line of research completely free of external pressures or interferences.
Through the whole project I have increasingly being focused on publishing pieces of original research applying my own perspective aiming to address relevant environmental questions.
The level of uncertainty which I have accomplished in my assessments has reached enough accuracy to replicate real time developments to the point of compete with models sustained by corporate and administrative budgets.
On Feb 2017, it has reached an stage in which its framework has been defined and it has been applied in follow-ups (in the timeline section at the bottom use ctrl+F: “follow-up”) delivering the subsequent conclusions. Therefore, the work which I present in my blog has become a chapter in my career, and I should focus now my attention on my new steps towards professional and personal growth.
The economic support sustaining the three years of research presented in this blog has been private based on my own capacity to generate it. Once the main conclusions of the project have demonstrated their value, in the absence of economic support, I can only look into other activities aside offering detailed assessments in this blog in order to keep moving while hoping that my published work could call the interest for its continuity from external sources of financial support.
Therefore, since Feb 2017, the generation of assessments over real-time developments discontinues its weekly bases due to the absence of financial support.
You have to be aware of that while one single line of writing containing an original idea can be read in seconds, reaching such idea might take weeks, months or years of analyses and reasoning. Such process is time consuming and require to achieve a state of mind where the focus of attention is prioritised over the subject under study above other matters. This state of mind can only be achieved and maintained when there is no need to address solving the challenge of being under the pressure of having to find access to all kind of material resources while also searching for ways to support an autonomous life style.
If you are interested in the continuity of this project, please share your interest publicly so investors and institutions might recognise its value and offer the support required to make this research an activity sustainable in a full time schedule.
Some people might think that being independent is related with being free from economical agendas. Since we all rely on economic support to sustain our activities, every activity require economic support. Being “independent” is a mindset which only should reflect an attitude based on a self-evolved criteria built upon a critical mind. It should not be identified with isolation but instead with the reputation of the source offering an opinion.
I am sorry I can not be involved in discussions and assessments in a full time-frame since I do not have the required economic support.
I only hope that with my previous activity I have been able to build a reputation over my capacity to analyse situations, make assessments, build communication channels and interact with others. And I hope that it will help me to find a team interested in sharing such attitude helping to support the reputation of institution/s involved.
Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD In transition
I am looking for new opportunities and new challenges, to join a team. At the same time that I look for job openings to incorporate my resume, I would encourage any one finding interesting any of the skills which I apply throughout my research, as well as communicator, to evaluate my profile as a candidate for your projects. email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com
You can look at the whole project (more than 190 posts between Oct 2013 to Feb 2017) published at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com and also you will find some of those publications in my profile at ResearchGate and at the Citations page.
I am living in Spain free to relocate geographically worldwide.
About this Project:
My definition of Climate Drift is: the deviation from equilibrium of the conditions allowing the perpetuity of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in a micro and macro ecosystem. This situation can be due to changes in any component of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes can be either a change in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality or rates in the flows of energy pre-established OR/AND the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components/forces and energy sinks or sources in any part of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance.
This project published in a blog format, offers pieces of original research in environmental science, and a space for discussion, based on considering as a major factor limiting our understandings the lack of attention given to the gaps of knowledge existent. The concepts, measurements and parameters applied to address environmental synergistic interactions are too narrow and isolated from each other to understand their full meaning. Such circumstance induce to reach dogmatic patterns of thought to make the quickest conclusions in the absence of a better and clear idea describing what is happening.
In this Project I aim to address those limitations using observational analyses offering assessments over real time events considering those as proxies of significant value to make interpretations over global synergistic relationships.
Feedback is always welcome here and at my email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com
Since 2002 I have performed research over the Atmospheric Dynamics interacting with the biota in the field of Aerobiology. In Oct 2013 I focused my attention over climatic dynamics and in Oct 2014 I published what I believe to be a valid theory explaining current developments in atmospheric dynamics. I shared my thoughts at my blog and several groups in LinkedIn (like the AGU, NASA and NOA groups) where the immense response offered has been silence.
In Feb 2015 I published a revision and since then a constant follow-up throughout more than 200 assessments. Still today, April 2017, the majority of the response is silence despite the amount of visits identified by all the SEO tools and the interactions and shares accounted. See the related stats at the Timeline page.
So I thank your open feedback and share.
Nowadays, there are many divisions between disciplines due to the isolated nature of their specific language and methodologies. I might not use the right vocabulary for all the fields which I discuss, or the right data or the right reasoning. But when nobody is able to offer a consensus over what it is going on, I wonder, what is right this days?.
Esta obra está bajo una licencia de Creative Commons Reconocimiento-NoComercial 4.0 Internacional.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.