Another Heat Wave Another Polar Vortex II … Broken (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)


Another Heat Wave Another Polar Vortex II … Broken (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)

(last update 27 Oct 2016)

I have discussed in previous publications that all the symptoms surrounding the breaking of the NH Polar Vortex point to a process being induced from the bottom up.

I believe that instead of looking at “The Influence of Arctic Amplification on Mid-Latitude Atmospheric Circulation” it should be considered the other way around. Understanding the influence of Mid-Latitude Atmospheric Circulation on Arctic circulation might be the key to understand the answer to many questions.

Different causes have been proposed by other scientists to explain the break of the polar vortex but all of them agree on that the mechanisms behind those breaking are warm masses of air moving up causing major sudden warmings.

Major stratospheric warmings have taken place, on average, every other year over the past 50 years. Since 1998 these warmings have been more frequent and earlier in the winter. Previously, major warmings typically happened in February. Over the past decade they have happened in December and January. No one knows why the number of major warmings is increasing even though some scientists have suggested variations in sea surface temperature anomalies and the active phase of the solar cycle.

In the line of research presented in this blog it has been discussed the impact over energy flows derived from solar activity, land use and surface, atmospheric composition of GHGs and aerosols as well as the water cycle.

Based on my previous observations and assessments the current state of the stratospheric circulation at both poles (25 Oct 2016) suggest that there is no need to have sudden warming process at stratospheric level in order to have a broken polar vortex. Such configuration comes from the turbulent effect triggered at lower altitudes by warm masses of air moving towards the poles in latitude and altitude. Such scenario can be seen by the configuration of the polar vortex split at the NH without a stratospheric localised strong warming meanwhile the South pole is suffering a Sudden stratospheric warming without splitting the polar vortex.

This behaviour can be explained by considering the thermal properties of the atmosphere as a system capable of carrying energy across higher latitudes and altitudes without dissipation and in enough concentration to affect the configuration of the polar vortex from the bottom up. Such capacity to keep momentum across latitudes and altitude conserving thermal energy can only be explained by an enhancement in the thermal properties of the atmosphere, which are directly related with its composition.

Throughout my line of research I suggest that there is one approach which is able to unify all events in a single principle. The incorporation of energy into the atmosphere is shaping the atmospheric dynamics we see affecting the behaviour of currents, storms, rain rates, lightning events, wind regimes and temperature variations.

The atmosphere might have trespassed a tipping point absorbing energy making to tremble its previous structural configuration in Latitude and Altitude.

The constant contact of warm masses of air from Low and Mid-Latitudes with those from polar latitudes has worn off the strength of the Polar Jet Stream. Such circumstance has allowed the intrusion of warm masses of air into higher latitudes and altitudes, increasing atmospheric turbulence. These convective intrusions are fuelled by the energy carried within water vapour, inducing the displacements  of other colder masses of air in altitude and latitude, increasing the mixing ratio between otherwise compartmentalized parts of the atmosphere.

Such circumstance has allowed the atmosphere to spread the energy carried by water vapour from mid latitudes into Polar Latitudes (Arctic latitudes), being able of holding more energy than before since it is not dissipated into their surroundings when moving across latitudes.

This scenario has induced a trans-Arctic interconnectivity between oceanic basins which has happened with and without the need for a strong sign of the ENSO. Therefore, this would suggest that exchange of masses of air between the Mid low latitudes with the Arctic, through the Polar Jet Stream, is the dominant driver in atmospheric circulation defining the behaviour of equatorial winds. But also, the configuration of the NH Polar Vortex.

All previous publications addressing those arguments can be found in the category Framework and time-line. Some relevant examples are:

2015-2016 Autumns. With and without strong ENSO Signals

tlon_heat-gif

30th Oct 2015. An intrusion of warm air into Arctic circulation displace a cold airmass into lower latitudes over the Atlantic Basin.

FRAME_OIS_RGB-airmass-westernEurope_1510301600

25th Oct 2016. An intrusion of warm air into Arctic circulation displace a cold airmass into lower latitudes over the Atlantic Basin.

Airmass RGB.

25-oct-2016-eumetsat-diego-fdez-sevilla-ph-d

23th May 2016. An intrusion of warm air into Arctic circulation displace a cold airmass into lower latitudes over the Atlantic Basin.

North Hemispheric circulation Atlantic 23 May 2016 by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

25th Oct 2016 Satellite IR image.

ir-25-oct-2016-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

25 Oct 2016. IR satellite composition.

Atmospheric conditions at the North Hemisphere

At the present fall, 25 Oct 2016, same patterns are being unfolded to those assessed in previous publications:

  • Warm air gets into polar circulation to a such extent that it affects its circulation in latitude and also in altitude.

The top image in the following composition shows the temp at 1000 hPa for the day 25 Oct 2016. The images below show the state of the Polar vortex for the same day (left) as a single unit. Meanwhile, the image on the right shows the Polar vortex configuration forecast for the 1st November 2016 split in two vortices. And the agreement is shown by the GFS and ECMWF models.

25-oct-2016-1000hpa-and-30hpa-temp-wind-diego-fdez-sevilla-ph-d

Configuration of Temp and Wind at 1000hPa (top), 30hPa temp and height conditions today 25 Oct 2016 (left) and the modelled projection of a broken Polar Vortex for the 1st November 2016 (right).

NOAA (GFS). Arctic Temp and Height conditions at 30hPa on the 25 Oct 2016 (left) and forecast 1st Nov 2016 (right).

   gfs-noaa-t30_nh_26-oct-2016-diego-fdez-sevilla-phdgfs-noaa-t30_nh_forecast-1-nov2016-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

   gfs-noaa-z30_nh_26-oct-2016-diego-fdez-sevilla-phdgfs-noaa-z30_nh_forecast-1-nov2016-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

Nullschool. GFS animation from 25 Oct 2016.

gfs-nh-t2_anom-2016-oct-25-diego-fdez-sevilla-phdgfs-nh-pwtr-2016-oct-25-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

DWD. (ECMWF) Temp and Height conditions at 30 hPa on the 25 Oct 2016 (left) and forecast 1st Nov 2016 (right).

ecmwf-30hpa-25-oct-2016-168h-forecast-diego-fdez-sevilla-phdecmwf-30hpa-1-nov-2016-168h-forecast-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

The Forecast for H500 and SLP at the NH for the 31st Oct is shown in the following images.

h500-nh-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

Sea Ice extent

arctic-sea-ice-extent-27-oct-2016-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

“National Snow and Ice Data Center.” Source.

Atmospheric conditions at the South Hemisphere

Previous publications in this line of research have addressed the dynamics at the South Pole:

Meanwhile the state of the Polar Vortex at the North Hemisphere seems to be suffering the impact from tropospheric dynamics, the South Polar Vortex is also going through a warming wave on its own.

gfs-noaa-t30_sh_26-oct-2016-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd gfs-noaa-z30_sh_26-oct-2016-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

gfs-sh-t2_anom-2016-oct-25-diego-fdez-sevilla-phdgfs-sh-pwtr-2016-oct-25-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

26-oct-2016-sh-10-hpa-diego-fdez-sevilla-ph-d

Sea Ice Extent at Antartica

antarctic-sea-ice-extent-27-oct-2016-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

Temperature anomalies globally

temp10-hpa-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

30-day loop of analyzed 10-hPa temperatures and anomalies. Each frame is an eleven-day mean, centered on the date indicated in the title, of 50-hPa temperature and anomalies from the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation System (CDAS). Contour interval for temperatures is 4ºC, anomalies are indicated by shading. Anomalies are departures from the 1981-2010 daily base period means.

temp50-hpa-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

30-day loop of analyzed 50-hPa temperatures and anomalies. Each frame is an eleven-day mean, centered on the date indicated in the title, of 50-hPa temperature and anomalies from the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation System (CDAS). Contour interval for temperatures is 4ºC, anomalies are indicated by shading. Anomalies are departures from the 1981-2010 daily base period means.

Closing Remarks

All those patterns would be fuelled by the incorporation of water vapour into an atmosphere with its thermal capacities enhanced due to an increase of GHGs and aerosols.

All the recent past and present events seem to confirm the assessments presented in the line of research published in this blog which can be found in chronological order in the category Framework and timeline at the top menu and following this link.

Animation from the previous publication Global Mixing in Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.)

See more animations from previous publications at youtube

From the Framework and Timeline presented in the line of research published in this blog:

March 14, 2014 The breakdown of the Polar Vortex. It happened before so, What would follow? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
March 14, 2014 The breakdown of the Polar Vortex. It happened before so, What would follow? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
October 7, 2014 What type of Polar vortex configuration can we expect for this winter? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
November 14, 2014 Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
November 22, 2014 The Polar Vortex breaks again in the North Hemisphere 22 Nov 2014. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
December 18, 2015 Climate and weather December 2015. Another Polar Vortex another Heat Wave? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
February 4, 2016 (updated 11-18 Feb2016) Polar Vortex, Old News, Same News? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)

 


Author’s Disclosure Declaration

For those unaware of the content offered in this blog I might have to issue a warning: Handle with care. Also with the product obtained from scientific analytical thinking there are traces of personal and professional “passion”, by-products obtained from “original and unpeered grey matter juice” originated from “independent critical thinking”. Also sometimes the packaging might be rough around the edges due to its “unfunded nature”.

4 years ago I joined a discussion which made me realise how much knowledge was settled on the past, built upon past conventions and unable to give answers about present developments in all parts of our environment. From the impact from GMOs, plastics, soils degradation, atmospheric composition, land use and cover, water cycles, … I had addressed scientifically unanswered questions before doing my PhD so I decided to give it a go and to offer my take over those gaps. It has been a pilgrimage to become aware of how much faith and fear is put on scientific publishing above raw understanding and discussion.

I do not know how far this blog will go, however, it represents the assessment of a global process and I expect that past posts will become a description of continuous present for the next years.

Altogether, the body of work which represents the line of research presented in this blog is composed by 170 pieces, covering data analyses and conceptual discussions. All those different discussions and assessments presented here build together a single concept. The format applied is the result of making a big effort trying to apply simplistic approaches with the aim to allow a multidisciplinary access. Since the topics treated in my publications have implications for many sectors in the academic and not academic world, with the aim of allowing my research for open review, there is also the objective of allowing access to a multisectorial and multidisciplinary audience sharing interest.

Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.

For a more profound discussion over my assessments and analyses as well as constructive feedback, please use my email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com.

My agenda is simple, I am in transition looking for either funding to grow the research published in this blog or for a job position in any field in which my assets are valued. Behind my research there is nothing more, nothing else than to showcase my capabilities doing what I like, research. I am a methodologist. I don´t look at the color of the result obtained, only at the suitability of the method and the coherence of the result. As I have said before, if I am wrong on my assessments and conclusions, it will be better for all, and my work would showcase my capabilities anyway. A CV shines the goals obtained by anyone, but by publishing here my research, I expose myself and my work to public judgement. There is a difference between being naive and raw. If you see the difference you will understand better my work and my personal position.

The aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. So any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time of at least a month from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found refuting the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.

In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will help me in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.

Perspective

(This post is part of a more complex piece of independent research. I don´t have funding, political agenda or publishing revenues from visits. Any scientist working in disciplines related with the topics that I treat in my blog knows how to judge the contribution that my work could potentially add to the state of knowledge. Since I am in transition looking for a position in research, if you are one of those scientists, by just acknowledging any value you might see from my contribution, would not only make justice to my effort as independent researcher, but ultimately, it will help me to enhance my chances to find a position with resources to further develop my work.

I believe that the hypothesis that I have presented in previous posts in this blog (here, here and here) could help to understand present and possible future scenarios in atmospheric circulation. However, this is an assessment based on observation which needs to be validated throughout open discussion and data gathering. So please feel free to incorporate your thoughts and comments in a constructive manner.

If you feel like sharing this post I would appreciate to have a reference about the place or platform, by private or public message, in order for me to have the opportunity to join the debate and be aware of the repercussion which might generate d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

This work is protected under Intellectual Property laws licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.)

Since October 2013 I have been publishing pieces of research studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.

Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License,  WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.

More assessments presenting chronologically the line of research published in this blog can be accessed in the category Framework and Timeline.

For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out):

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About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Citing This Site "Title", published online "Month"+"Year", retrieved on "Month""Day", "Year" from http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! DOIs can be generated on demand by request by email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com for those publications missing at the ResearchGate profile vinculated with this project. Author´s profile: Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my previous work as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After couple of years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, I find myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my research. In the present competitive scenario, instead of just moving my cv and wait for my next opportunity to arrive, I have decided to invest also my energy and time in opening my own line of research showing what I am capable of. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this blog has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my work and the intellectual rights represented by the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in this line of research. Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome. In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2017, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2017. Filling in or Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/
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13 Responses to Another Heat Wave Another Polar Vortex II … Broken (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)

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