Statistical Significance and The Scary Side of Being Mild (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)


Statistical Significance. The Scary Side of Being Mild (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)

Statistical Significance

When was the last time that your eye caught a “mild thing” happening making you suspicious of being this “mild event” the representation of a major change?

The story of our lives is actually marked by those mild events which are all around us. We get to become familiarised with the expression “Back at the time I noticed something but I did not think much about it“.

We get so used to it that we accept that there is “natural variability” in our environment happening without the need to justify it, or understand it further than that.

Things start to be judged by their level of significance. If those are not significant under our eyes there is no need to pay further attention to them.

Similar thing happens in politics and science. But this time the use of “significance” comes from the use of statistics, and it is applied to judge the level of attention that it should be addressed into an event.

So everyone, in any sector of our society, is familiar with the conflicts arising from having to define what makes an event significantly relevant to pursue further action.

In scientific research there are some terms which are applied to justify when some type of arguments are not supported by the statistical rigour demanded to claim their significant relevance. So we find the terms like “natural variability”, “anecdotal evidence” or “suggestive examples“. All of those come to say that, even acknowledging the existence of traces, you have to build your case with more arguments in order to justify their significant relevance.

As you might be aware of, this is a game where the validation of the data offered in order to justify what it is and it is not “significant”, relies entirely in the perception of the person whom is making the decision.

If you play with numbers, even when statistical analyses give a correlation through time between a sequence of events, causality is not easy to be defined. And it gets even harder when the data applied is not dominantly numerical, like when studying the behaviour of a person and its relationship with an illness like e.g. Alzheimer.

In environmental studies, like those addressing climatic and atmospheric changes, similar challenges are found throughout the lines of research presented. Not everyone makes the same interpretation for the same events happening through the world. Not only the interpretation for the same events is different, sometimes, there is not even an agreement over what it is significantly relevant and what it is not.

The whole line of research that I have presented in this blog addresses the challenge of offering significant arguments explaining the relevance of underestimating what for some people can be “Mild events“, “anecdotal evidence” or “suggestive examples“. A challenge which has presented itself as it happened in 2014 when first I shared my thoughts with Prof Jennifer Francis, the silence surrounding any feedback from the visits arriving to this blog and the same silence found throughout the shares placed in my profile at LinkedIn.

——-mmmmmmmm—————

The Scary Side of Being Mild

Mild events, discarded as relevant, can be more meaningful than 3 hurricanes in the Caribbean, based on location and timing. Like seeing rain in the Arctic through winter as we have seen on 2015 and 16, and I guess we will see in 2017.

Related writing at LinkedIn

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/dear-sir-diego-fernandez-sevilla-ph-d-/ 

Related article at WordPress

December 18, 2015 Climate and weather December 2015. Another Polar Vortex another Heat Wave? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.19966.48968

I believe that this year will share many similarities with winter 2014/15. Based on the thermal conditions and conductivity accumulated in the atmosphere through the summer-fall 2015 this will bring some Stratospheric “Sudden” Warming affecting the polar vortex configuration from the bottom up.

What I expect, but with some uncertainty, is more rain and strong winds reaching tropospheric levels, instead of snow. And that would be an indicator of things going bad. I hope I am wrong about that, cause if I am right there are other consequences.

If rain at the deserts would be a strong indicator of something changing, increasing “rain” instead of snow at higher latitudes would have a post-effect over the atmospheric circulation, and generate feedback loops. I don´t want to go too far and become an alarmist with no valid criteria, so I will only make these comments considering that you have your own opinion.

The most common form of analysis when addressing the conformation of the Polar Vortex is following the idea of considering that its configuration is the responsible for the conditions at Tropospheric level.

Why not the other way around?

Warm masses of air not only get into North latitudes but also in altitude when they become close to the Pole.

The warmer mass of air represents not only the conditions in heat transfer capabilities towards its surroundings but also the molecular density of the mass of air containing this energy and the convective processes which represents from low altitudes moving upwards.

My interpretation of the behaviour of the Ecosystem as a whole is that the first and fastest medium reacting to the energy entering the system is the atmosphere. And therefore the atmosphere leads, and the events found in the other mediums follow.

The events that I have explored seem to follow this interpretation. And new publications seem to support my point of view.

I look at those anomalies not by the amount of heat in itself but by the molecular composition of the mass of air holding it at such latitudes and time of the year. If this heat is there is because “thermodynamically” it can, the conditions allow it. And that is under my point of view the key in this matter. More radiation reaches out space but the molecular composition do not hold that temperature.

As I have tried to point out in this last publication, same patterns of atmospheric circulation moving masses of air to higher latitudes holding heat seem to be repeating since I started looking at it in 2013, over the Pacific and Atlantic, at tropospheric level as well as at stratospheric level. The gas with highest capacity to do it is water vapour, which furthermore, generates downpour rains and floods when releases part of the energy carried. Lets see how the following events match or not with my line of thought and what other scientists have to say from their point of view. So far, I am worried that things are going as I predicted and they might be just a stage part of a transition towards other changes.

17th Dec 2015 by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

Water vapour circulation globally 7th Sept 2015 DiegoFdezSevilla

Image from the previous publication: Discussing Climatic Teleconnections. Follow Up On My Previous Research (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on October 21, 2015

(to continue reading follow the link in the title)

Validation of Previous Assessments with Recent developments:

Video animation from the publication: Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. Posted on

September 19, 2017

October 02-03, 2017

Daily 5-km Monitoring Raw Data (netCDF)* – Version 3. https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/hdf/index.php

Scenarios and Sceneries

Sceneries

Three hurricanes in the Caribbean Atlantic through September 2017 presented a scenery which caught the attention of many and occupied the space of many formats of media.

E.g. “When the Planet Looks Like a Climate-Change Ad” “We kept on trying to wrap our heads around [that forecast] as we made it.” by Robinson Meyer Sep 12, 2017 theatlantic.com  Link

NOAA / CIRA / Colorado State University. Left to right, they are: Hurricane Katia, Hurricane Irma, and Hurricane José.

Scenarios

August 31, 2017 Climate. A System Becoming Dominated By Free Energy. The “Drama”, Character Driven VS Plot Driven (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)  ResearchGate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18509.13289

In the scenario described from the assessments presented in my research, three hurricanes in the Caribbean seem like a pretty reasonable progression from previous dynamics:

What if, the relevant bit lies hidden on identifying the pattern behind similarities instead of trying to match anomalies? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)

Recently, on the 28th August 2015, we have observed three Low Pressures moving across the central equatorial Pacific. Those three Tropical Cyclones have occupied most of the tabloids in scientific social media. Such event of having coexisting three low and powerful cyclones in the Pacific has driven the attention of most people towards embracing the idea of that the actual increase in SST at the equatorial Pacific (ENSO) is the cause of these “trio of Tropical cyclones”. Altogether, the increase in Eq. Pacific SST and the observed formation of those cyclones, have been applied to focus our worries in making prevail the idea of forecasting El Niño as the solution to our climatic questions.

2015 Trio Low P Pacific

Three Low Tropical Pressures happening simoultameusly in the Central Equatorial Pacific in August 2005

However, is this the first time that we see this formation of three Lows in the Central Pacific? Actually, no. We have seen the same formation , in the same location, and even earlier in time just through the beginning of August last year 2014. Without the extreme values in SST that we see these days.

2014 Trio Low P Pacific

Why nobody, among all the people working in all the national agencies, with all the resources anybody can imagine, has spotted the similarities between these two situations?  And if they did, why nobody has highlighted such exceptional similarities?

I believe that there is more information coming from the exceptionality of understanding how it is possible the repetition of such complex event in years with different SST, than applying all focus of attention into expecting one single parameter, the temperature of the water, to resolve our questions in climatic developments.

First of all, it is assumed by everybody that the ENSO is a situation which is unclear how it gets developed. Atmospheric circulation and the MOC are both connected and the ENSO is just the visible, measurable and standardised concept that allow us to see “the back of an animal coming above the water’s surface”. We see that something happens but we don´t really know what it is.

… (continue reading following the link in the title)

September 3, 2015

I also discussed this issue here;

July 19, 2016 Atmospheric Dynamics. Foreseeable, At The Moment. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.14079.41127

I have explained in this blog my assessments over the North hemisphere as part of a process in expansion from mid-latitudes. And the changes in seasonality associated.

Those atmospheric dynamics seem to keep happening describing a similar pattern. Heat moves up in latitude through Europe generating the highest records in the last years, with and without El Niño conditions.

Now, through the Southern winter, we can see also anomalies in tempt entering Antarctica from the closest parts to the continents, America and Africa.

I can only repeat what I have said in previous assessments in atmospheric developments. The mixing ratio is increasing and it is not going to follow the same pattern through time. But now it seems foreseeable.

In a previous publication in this blog I pointed out already that it is time to be vigilant about seeing repeated what has happened in previous years.

As part of the discussion I pointed out the little attention given to see the development of three tropical systems at the same time in the same location over the Pacific with and without El Niño conditions:

2014 Trio Low P Pacific

2015 Trio Low P Pacific

Well, guess what is happening on 18th July 2016?

Lows Pacific July 2016 Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD

Last year Atacama desert suffered bad flooding in 2015. I discussed it as part of a scenario driven by the influence of atmospheric dynamics due to synergies beyond the ENSO:

Nine days ago, Larry Cosgrove  a colleague from my network at LinkedIn, pointed out:

“Very odd weather for a winter’s day in Iquique, Chile. While there has been no rain at Diego Aracena International Airport, some parts of the city and areas to the north and east have seen high winds and fairly strong thunderstorms! On the edge of the Atacama Desert, this is usually one of the calmest and driest cities in the world.”

I believe that the weather over Chile, cold spell over West South Europe with strong winds, thunderstorms, lightening and hail together with the Typhoon in Taiwan are linked in a pattern:

And this pattern dominates the atmospheric circulation dictating the behaviour over the ENSO.:

One example on this comes with the interpretation of these two following images from SST anomalies, in two different years, with opposite ENSO index. Which one do you think is the result of El Niño and which one La Niña? Beyond that, which of both represents colder conditions in the north hemisphere?

ENSO 2 YEARS Comparison Hemispheres Diego Fdez-SevillaOne question remains.

There is one question in the mind of many: how much of the atmospheric dynamics that we study are related to human activities?

Since I write in my blog on climate I want to say that I started my own line of research just because I didn´t want to follow the random paths dictated by others and their data so I would not leave them make a fool of myself and my beliefs in this subject. So if reading what I write you find non sense in my assessments and conclusions, at least, those would be my own.

The situation as stands nowadays it is pretty similar to the cold war. Was it real or just a mere strategy to manipulate through fear and ignorance. As much as I look at it, it is impossible to have the technology and knowledge to study worlds in space but not having a position over what is going on in the closest one. Can the development of a single specie affect the global climate, ask paleoclimatologists. Can we be one of those species? Do we have the capacity of transformation required? Yes, sooner or later. And we better figure it out sooner than later.

There is a reality behind the political agenda driving today’s scientific debate which is taking its toll on our common social health state. Many members of our society do not feel secure on that they can share openly their thoughts in this matter. We can start with climatologists, general scientists and also meteorologists.

Actually, I am not even sure of that if by saying my opinion I might be damaging my chances to find a job being myself an Environmental Biologist. Not only meteorologists are under “the weather” produced by this non sense. Even a simple researcher seeking a job position, like me, has to be very cautious with what or how says what he thinks in this subject. Why it does not happen when talking about food and cancer?

If you want to have a simple point of view on the matter of human impact over atmospheric dynamics lets look at some simple chemistry.

In some of my earliest posts I used the process of cooking as an analogy to address the problems behind modelling climatic shifts and synergistic interactions. And when I say cooking, I mean something more… demanding than a pizza.

The order of the factors/ingredients affect the product

The behaviour of water is none lineal

It is water vapour, a greenhouse gas, what cooks the aliments:

Dry food requires water to be cooked:

But if you ask me what is the most relevant analogy of all considering the impact from human activities over atmospheric and climatic developments, I would take, the impact of just adding salt into water.

Thanks to this small contribution, water can retain more heat in liquid form (the new boiling point is increased) and also its  electric conductivity increases. Similar, with the introduction into the atmosphere of GHGs and aerosols, the amount of heat that it can retain increases as well as its thermal conductivity. But furthermore, by releasing land cover from vegetation, it also increases thermal conductivity from the ground since it gets hotter from sun’s radiation than when it is covered with vegetation.

The combination of these simple factors, allow the atmosphere to become more thermodynamically conductive. Which in turn allows more different forms of energy to be absorbed and displaced. This is something which I consider to be happening based on the previous research and assessments which are part of this blog.

Peer reviewed articles supporting previous publications in the line of research published in this blog:

Since 2014 most of the assessments published in this blog can not be verified by peer review articles due to the absence of them applying similar approach. However, some peer reviewed publications start to appear supporting these assessments:

Hadley Circulation:

Energy gradients:

Statistical errors:

Related peer publication in agreement with the whole project presented in this blog:

Climbing the Hill of Acknowledgement. Peer reviewed articles supporting previous assessments and research published in this blog. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Posted on  … …

Answer to the SST images shared above. Follow this link

July 21, 2017 “Diego Fdez-Sevilla’s Approach on Atmospheric Dynamics and Climate Drift. July 2017 Follow-Up. ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.15362.58565

Similar dynamics have started to appear in 2017. Foreseeable at the moment.

Suggestive examples and anecdotal evidence or scientific evidence?

18th July 2017 Pacific East.

ENSO

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml?bookmark=nino3.4

My position over the ENSO-SST-Atmosphere interactions are part of the embedded links found in the present publication but also I have published specific assessments and discussions over the ENSO, El Niño, Pacific and global dynamics and SST in previous publications found at the the index in the main page of the blog.

Synchronicity does not explain causality, and I believe that there are many events which have been overlooked based on such misleading approach.

I am aware of the implications that Solar brings into the table and I would humbly invite you to consider reading through those publications and assessments which I have published in relation with Solar forcing looking at the index page and the embedded links in the articles. In a nutshell my position is based on that whatever the Sun brings to the planet, it will go “through” the atmosphere. Therefore, the atmosphere behaves as the composition and configuration of the molecules in a prism defines the behaviour of any wave moving across.

June 23, 2017 “Seasonal Outlook. June 2017 (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25428.91528

“As I have said in previous assessments, I believe that the Arctic is not amplifying the effect of increasing heat retention in the atmosphere, it will be the Equator the area which will develop such reaction. However, the shape and form for such energetic dynamics can be as surprising as reducing the number of hurricanes (due to the difficulty to condensate energy in a small location) whilst finding more energetic developments at higher latitudes. And if a hurricane forms, it might become unpredictable due to the rapidly changing nature of the environmental characteristics of the atmosphere. “

October 7, 2016 Equatorial Dynamics. A conversation between Joaquin and Matthew (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Researchgate:  DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.13720.08960

Video Equatorial dynamics. See full assessment following the link at the title

 

Chasing White Elephants

The expression of White Elephants is commonly applied to call the attention over understated obvious facts. However, we might be becoming addicted to look for White Elephants.

Hurricanes pose a threat to stability at any part where they arrive. And such perturbation is strongly appreciated in communities and human settlements. The threat that they represent is evident, and their power makes them the White Elephants among the atmospheric “animals” living in the jungle of the atmosphere.

But, we are at risk of loosing perspective over the whole scenario by chasing White Elephants as if they were the ones representing the ultimate prove, the critical change everyone is expecting.

And yet, the biggest threat that I see when we observe the developments of hurricanes and deep Tropical depressions comes with the blocking patterns injecting the remnants from those depressions into Arctic latitudes.

The Smoking Gun

Our environment is changing and the actions involved in the human development have been part of those changes.

The challenge of addressing the implications derived from the impact that such transformation is exerting over the environment in which we are immersed is proving to overwhelm even the core of the scientific establishment and its own scientific method.

What is it required to prove that something is changing? Do we need to see white elephants breeding at mid-latitudes or is it enough to see plants populating same latitudes?

Should it take 30 years waiting  to validate new patterns of thought in our environmental systems?

December 23, 2015 New insides on old concepts (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4211.8001

… continues

Moving forward “previous research”

Since 2014 I have published pieces of research addressing synergies on specific climatic developments and atmospheric dynamics looking at the interconnectivity between Biotic components, Oceanic states on SST and Atmospheric dynamics.

One of the key arguments which I have applied in my research is considering that the unifying force which drives our planetary systems (terrestrial, oceanic and atmospheric) is the energy which is transferred between biotic and nonbiotic components. This energy is absorbed, transformed and transferred following thermodynamic laws unless biotic systems interact (ref).

Energy in kinetic, latent and potential form are also channelled in other ways: Mechanical Energy is the energy of motion that does the work like the wind turns a windmill or pushes down a tree. Heat Energy where motion or rise in temperature is caused by heat like a fire in your fireplace, heat waves raising temp or convective processes in the atmosphere. Chemical Energy is the chemical reaction causing changes; food and fuel both store chemical energy as well as the chemical composition of our atmosphere, biosphere, oceans and soils. Electrical Energy is when motion, light or heat is produced by an electrical current like the electric coils on your stove and lighting on storms. Gravitational Energy where motion, like water going over a dam or in flooding events moving ground, cars and houses, is caused by gravity’s pull.

Many atmospheric events, linked with climatic developments, are defined by how much heat, wind and water (in solid, liquid and gaseous form) gets concentrated in location.

All those variables are linked together sharing one single principle: the conditions required to have such concentration in magnitude and location for each one of those different forms of energy. From kinetic in the wind, potential in the mass of water and latent in the temperature holding water in vapour state. But also, all those variables are related together by the shared source of their energy. All those forms of energy are just the result of a transformation and transference between states. And the life spam for each one of those states depends on the amount of energy in the surrounding elements and the energetic conductivity (ref) which restrains those states from dissipating their energy when they move through the atmosphere from one location to another (ref), where they release their charge (ref).

In the middle of December 2015, overwhelming amounts of rain have provoked floods in latitudes over Europe (UK, Sweden) where snow is what it should be expected at this part of the year. In order to make water vapour to freeze in the form of snow, more energy should be dissipated in the surrounded atmosphere, but it didn´t dissipate. Such interpretation matches with one of the theories which my criteria supports, “the Gradients of energy in the atmosphere are being reduced due to a redistribution of energy carried by water vapour into higher latitudes from the Subtropical latitudes into Polar. That increase in the amount of energy being spread and contained in the surroundings around atmospheric events reduce the capacity for dissipation”. Flooding events out of season would be one of the side effects, also with the generation of blocking patterns, Arctic circulation strengthening cross oceanic linkage and heat waves, altogether through water vapour as a carrier of energy. But also, an heterogeneous atmosphere would find conditions where the combination of elements will develop events of discharge like wires touching creating short circuits, originating flash floods, strong winds and heat displacements. The conductivity found on the conditions of a location would act as a lightning-rod or a single tree in the path way of a storm. In climatic events that means, heat waves will follow the thermal conductivity of the atmosphere in those areas opposing less resistance to their intrusion. 

This scenario is a combination between the principles described by Einstein, Tesla and Newton.

Another principles which I have considered to to analyse climatic events come from Pascal laws on fluids.

Considering that an increased concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere would trap more energy in the form of heat, that would induce an increase in water vapour to be contained and carried in the atmosphere. Accordingly, water in itself is a gas which can carry enormous quantities of energy through the ecosystems, in the form of latent heat, chemical energy through photosynthesis and potential energy within its mass.

In an enclosed environment as it is our atmosphere, an incorporation of more water vapour would come in a heterogeneous distribution. Coriolis effect and the uneven distribution of atmospheric water supply from the ground level will depend on distribution of oceans, inland water bodies, the state of soils and evapotranspiration from biotic systems. The processes to release and retain water in all those components work at different speed. Thermodynamic and chemical mechanisms apply to inert bodies through evaporation processes linked with temperature, pressure, chemical composition (GHGs) and structure of the molecules of water (e.g. salinity, physical state), meanwhile, in biotic systems conducting evapotranspiration (e.g. Amazones), thermodynamic and chemical mechanisms are subjected to metabolism performance.

In another hand, the atmospheric behaviour towards atmospheric water vapour dynamics is also affected by the synergistic interactions between aerosols due to their Drop Nuclei Activity. Those particles have inert and biological nature (e.g. plant and pollen debris, bacteria and vapours liberated from metabolic processing).

In a dynamic thermodynamic system, the shape of the planet (spheroidal) and its constant state of motion (rotation), also  generates forces driving the distribution of the masses of air. The masses of air occupying the volume of the atmosphere in the Equator are being constantly heated and charged with moisture despite rotation. Same as a chicken is cooked all way round when spinning over the grill. Meanwhile the masses or air occupying the Poles receive less radiation and are colder. Therefore, low temperatures restrain the amount of atmospheric water contained in the form of vapour.

The Coriolis effect defines an equator to pole movement. The northward currents creates an area of collition between warm equatorial masses of air and cold polar air. Such contrast in temperature and humidity generates a constant current of air called the Polar Jet Stream which keeps warm masses of air from entering polar circulation.

Having water vapour as the substance in the atmosphere with the highest capacity to absorb, carry and release energy makes it a key component shared by biotic and non biotic parts of an ecosystem. Where it does comes from, how it does moves and behaves as well as where it does go becomes relevant.

At this point, my interpretation of the recent developments makes me differ from the main stream in two areas:

  1. My interpretation disagree with: “Arctic amplification is considered as the fact of having the Arctic warming faster than the rest of the planet. Therefore, it is amplifying the warming effect from GHGs and lowering the thermal contrast at the Polar Jet Stream.”

My take on this scenario differs by considering that the Arctic is not amplifying the warming effect from GHGs. It is just the volume of space left for warmer volumes of air to expand in the North Hemisphere. The only space with low energy left to expand the constant charging effect suffered at equatorial and mid-latitudes. The constant friction of increasingly warmer masses of air from mid latitudes has been wearing off the strength of the Polar vortex. Whilst it worked properly, the increase in temperature was just at mid latitudes, but once it was reached its threshold, masses of air started to cross into polar latitudes. That has increased the volume of atmosphere to accommodate more energy, creating a slow down in global warming and yet, increasing the amount of heat being identified at the Arctic. In the Antarctic pole the circulation is different and yet, more snow covering topographic features but not increase in ice thickening from oceanic circulation point to an increase in atmospheric water vapour reaching south pole latitudes, being released in solid form.

In this line of thinking, the amplification would come from the equatorial latitudes due to the strong contrast in kinetic energy between the volumes of air at the Poles and those at the equator. Once a weak Polar Jet Stream allows Arctic inter-cross circulation between Atlantic and Pacific basins, the manifestation of Pascals laws on fluids will become stronger and alterations on Pressure over one volume of fluid will have an effect over the other. The following images show 3 Low pressure systems happening simultaneously at the Atlantic and Pacific basins in different days through 1 year period.

2. My observations disagree also with that: “The temperature of the Oceans are the ones dictating global atmospheric developments at this stage.”

My interpretation of the behaviour of the Ecosystem as a whole is that the first and fastest medium reacting to the energy entering the system is the atmosphere. And therefore the atmosphere leads, and the events found in the other mediums follow (ref).

nov-temp-state-2015-by-diego-fdez-sevilla

At the current time we can see warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) at the Equatorial Pacific which it has been identified as part of a cycle, the warm phase of the ENSO also called El Niño. There is also a cold area of SST at the north Atlantic, and warm SST at Barents sea and Mediterranean sea (ref). At the same time, air temperature measurements at 2m show warmer than normal anomalies at the North Pole.

Looking at the implications from those situations in the atmospheric circulation I can see that warmer Equatorial Pacific SST will bring more moisture in the atmosphere, but what it drives it around, and keeps it out from carrying the energy contained into the Poles is the strength of the barrier created by the thermal contrast generating the Polar Jet Stream.

The warmer than normal SST at the Pacific Equator is happening this year meanwhile the erratic behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream it has been already for at least since I started looking in 2013. So I can only assume that the deterioration in the rigidity of the Polar Jet Stream has been happening due to a condition in the atmospheric circulation developed before the conditions created by El Niño.

Thanks to Giulio Betti I have seen two articles pointing out claims which I believe support those from my own research.

  1. The atmospheric circulation linked with the Atlantic and Pacific basins are interconnected.

“Extending climate predictability beyond El Niño”. Date: April 21, 2015 Source: University of Hawaii – SOEST

“Our results present a paradigm shift,” explains co-author Axel Timmermann, climate scientist and professor at the University of Hawaii. “Whereas the Pacific was previously considered the main driver of tropical climate variability and the Atlantic and Indian Ocean its slaves, our results document a much more active role for the Atlantic Ocean in determining conditions in the other two ocean basins. The coupling between the oceans is established by a massive reorganization of the atmospheric circulation.”

2-“New study questions long-held theories of climate variability in the North Atlantic”. Date: October 15, 2015 Source: University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science

This new analysis shows that the pattern of the AMO can be accounted for by atmospheric circulation alone, without any role for the ocean circulation.

New insides on old concepts

In order to identify new patterns in a constant evolving scenario we have to allow our brains to adopt more than one perspective.

Apart from previous patterns in atmospheric circulation pointed out in my previus publication here I share another one:

Back in February 2015 I published a post: Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Posted on February 10, 2015.

In this post I discussed that “with the weakening of the Jet Stream, the volume of space to be occupied by warm air would expand into the Polar regions. Accordingly, highs associated with the subsidence of the Hadley cell move several degrees of latitude toward the poles even before the summer heat arrives (see following image on Pressure at Mean Sea Level 5th and 6th March 2015)”, and I presented the following image.

Pressure 6 March 2015 GFS-025deg_WORLD-CED_PMSL

This is the images for the atmospheric pressure scenario at sea level we could see the 22th of Dec 2015 after one of the warmest Novembers on record.

22 Dec 2015 GFS-025deg_WORLD-CED_PMSL

22 Dec 2015 NCEP_Global_Best MSLP

MPSL 22 Dec 2015 Diego Fdez-Sevilla

3D representation MSLP NOAA NCEP/GFS 22th Dec 2015 Diego Fdez-Sevilla

Also in this publication I discussed the existence of some persistent Blocking patterns:

“Since October, there has been a deep H in the Atlantic sea (taking from 1000 hPa to 250 hPa and higher) which has played a big impact over the Jet Stream circulation, dividing it in two. This impact over the Jet Stream from the High pressure in the middle of the Atlantic continues now Feb 2015. Another H tilting from west to central Pacific, together with the blocking H in California, have been very resilient features. But also, systems of Low pressure have been generated frequently taking from 1000 hPa up to 250 hPa over the central North Pacific Ocean, strong enough to interfere with the Jet Stream and resilient enough to create blocking patterns influencing meteorological conditions across North America.”

Pacific Atm circulation North Pacific by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

Pacific atmospheric circulation 11th Feb 2015. Conditions of Wind Speed and Direction, Total Precipitable Water and Mean Pressure at sea level. Data NOAA & Nullschool.

10 Feb 2015 Wind Surf_250 hPa_Pressure by DiegoFdezSevilla

Arctic view for the NH State of atmospheric circulation 10th Feb 2015. Conditions of Wind Speed and Direction at 1000 hPa (left), Jet Stream level (centre) and Mean Pressure at sea level (right) for the 10th Feb 2015. Data NOAA & Nullschool. Worthy to mention the Low pressure over the North Pacific and the High Pressure over UK.

Similar blocking patterns show to be happening at 22th Dec 2015.

MPSL 23 Dec 2015 by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

There is one difference. At this moment, December instead of February, the High over California has oscillated to the West, so the temperature gradients in North America have been displaced in comparison with last year. At this stage, the East of NA is warmer than the East, but the division in temperature gradients is maintained longitudinally instead of latitudinally. And the oscillating nature of these Highs will make very volatile such scenario with a high probability of seeing the H coming back to California bringing cold spells over the East of North America and some storm resembling Juno.

In Europe we haven’t seen the High positioned over the Eastern Atlantic that we saw last year at Dec14/Jan15. Instead, similarly with what happened on Feb2015 but earlier this year, a strong persistent High has kept blocking the jet stream located just above the continental western Europe, dragging warm air from Africa into Northern latitudes generating among the highest temperatures in Nov and Dec on record. In some way, the H which last year was over the Atlantic influencing western Europe, is now located over the continent  coalescing with others at both sides.

GFS-025deg_NH-SAT1_T2_anom

One main situation remains, the regiment of temperatures is divided in longitude when usually it was divided in latitude. As I mentioned in a previous post, it might not be so important why cold masses of air move at lower latitudes but why warm masses of air move at higher latitudes.

And the framework that I purpose to study the answer is to not look just at temperatures but at gradients of energy.

This alterations in the temperature regimens in longitude is a reality with consequences in our present for our biotic systems and the synergies in which they are involved.

Final Discussion

(Comment also shared also at Linkedin)

In my assessments I have defended that the increase in the energy pool at mid-latitudes would ultimately create an scenario with an overcharged atmosphere. That would reduce the contrasts with which to create and maintain stability in the structure required to condense energy in singular events, like hurricanes. Giving more relevance to the single contrast between Ocean/continental masses. However, the opening of the Arctic circulation through a weak Jet Stream would reduce the pressure in the containment absorbing the condensation of energy at midlatitudes, expanding into a new volume.

Accordingly, hadley circulation gets affected generating new patterns of turbulence at the ITCZ as well as it gets influenced Arctic mixing zones with lower latitudes.

In this scenario TCs are generated under an increase in the mixing ratio of an unstable atmospheric circulation dominated by kinetic energy transferred by water vapour thanks to GHGs, and immersed in an overcharged atmosphere with no place where to diffuse its energy, becoming resilient as long as they stay over the ocean. So they endure like a piece of an ice rock in cold water.

About Sea Surface Temperatures, my assessments take SST as subsequent conditions driven by wind shear. So the interaction between masses of air in circulation allowes or inhibits SST developments. Once the scenario is built on SST this becomes a “battle field” conditioning the subsequent interaction between the following masses of air and the characteristics of the “grounds” where the game will be played (sort of speak). Like the effect of the ice conditions in an ice hockey match.

 

(Also discussed at LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/nhome/updates?activity=activity%3A6273822766135287808 All my arguments have been addressed through my publications if any body is interested.

 

Related atmospheric events

  • Serbia,

– A storm roared through Serbia: Strong wind ripped out the trees, water and hail paralyzed cities (PHOTO) (VIDEO) (link)

  •  Germany, Oct 5, 2017, 3:45 PM ET

– 7 people die as storm causes chaos in Germany. By The Associated Press.BERLIN —  Link

Atmospheric anomalies 10 Oct 2017

_______________________________________

For More related posts in this topic see timeline page to consult the index with all previous assessments published by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. (author’s email: d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com)

Further exposure of the publications shared in this blog can be found also at my profile in LinkedIn and ResearchGate

About myself:

After finishing my Masters in Biology Environmental Science in 2001, I have performed research at PhD level and worked inside and outside academia at institutions linked with environmental research and management. In 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new job’s position.

In such competitive scenario, instead of just moving my cv between desks waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I used it as an advantageous standing point to start and develop independent research in a blog in which I could open my own line of research completely free of external pressures or interferences.

Through the whole project I have increasingly being focused on publishing pieces of original research applying my own perspective aiming to address relevant environmental questions.

The level of uncertainty which I have accomplished in my assessments has reached enough accuracy to replicate real time developments to the point of compete with models sustained by corporate and administrative budgets.

On Feb 2017, it has reached an stage in which its framework has been defined and it has been applied in follow-ups (in the timeline section at the bottom use ctrl+F: “follow-up”) delivering the subsequent conclusions. Therefore, the work which I present in my blog has become a chapter in my career, and I should focus now my attention on my new steps towards professional and personal growth.

The economic support sustaining the three years of research presented in this blog has been private based on my own capacity to generate it. Once the main conclusions of the project have demonstrated their value, in the absence of economic support, I can only look into other activities aside offering detailed assessments in this blog in order to keep moving while hoping that my published work could call the interest for its continuity from external sources of financial support.

Therefore, since Feb 2017, the generation of assessments over real-time developments discontinues its weekly bases due to the absence of financial support.

You have to be aware of that while one single line of writing containing an original idea can be read in seconds, reaching such idea might take weeks, months or years of analyses and reasoning. Such process is time consuming and require to achieve a state of mind where the focus of attention is prioritised over the subject under study above other matters. This state of mind can only be achieved and maintained when there is no need to address solving the challenge of being under the pressure of having to find access to all kind of material resources while also searching for ways to support an autonomous life style.

If you are interested in the continuity of this project, please share your interest publicly so investors and institutions might recognise its value and offer the support required to make this research an activity sustainable in a full time schedule.

Some people might think that being independent is related with being free from economical agendas. Since we all rely on economic support to sustain our activities, every activity require economic support. Being “independent” is a mindset which only should reflect an attitude based on a self-evolved criteria built upon a critical mind. It should not be identified with isolation but instead with the reputation of the source offering an opinion.

I am sorry I can not be involved in discussions and assessments in a full time-frame since I do not have the required economic support.

I only hope that with my previous activity I have been able to build a reputation over my capacity to analyse situations, make assessments, build communication channels and interact with others. And I hope that it will help me to find a team interested in sharing such attitude helping to support the reputation of institution/s involved.

Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD In transition

I am looking for new opportunities and new challenges, to join a team. At the same time that I look for job openings to incorporate my resume, I would encourage any one finding interesting any of the skills which I apply throughout my research, as well as communicator, to evaluate my profile as a candidate for your projects. email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

You can look at the whole project (more than 190 posts between Oct 2013 to Feb 2017) published at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com and also you will find some of those publications in my profile at ResearchGate and at the Citations page.

I am living in Spain free to relocate geographically worldwide.

About this Project:

My definition of Climate Drift is: the deviation from equilibrium of the conditions allowing the perpetuity of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in a micro and macro ecosystem. This situation can be due to changes in any component of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes can be either a change in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality or rates in the flows of energy pre-established OR/AND the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components/forces and energy sinks or sources in any part of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance.

This project published in a blog format, offers pieces of original research in environmental science, and a space for discussion, based on considering as a major factor limiting our understandings the lack of attention given to the gaps of knowledge existent. The concepts, measurements and parameters applied to address environmental synergistic interactions are too narrow and isolated from each other to understand their full meaning. Such circumstance induce to reach dogmatic patterns of thought to make the quickest conclusions in the absence of a better and clear idea describing what is happening.

In this Project I aim to address those limitations using observational analyses offering assessments over real time events considering those as proxies of significant value to make interpretations over global synergistic relationships.

Feedback is always welcome here and at my email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

Since 2002 I have performed research over the Atmospheric Dynamics interacting with the biota in the field of Aerobiology. In Oct 2013 I focused my attention over climatic dynamics and in Oct 2014 I published what I believe to be a valid theory explaining current developments in atmospheric dynamics. I shared my thoughts at my blog and several groups in LinkedIn (like the AGU, NASA and NOA groups) where the immense response offered has been silence.

In Feb 2015 I published a revision and since then a constant follow-up throughout more than 200 assessments. Still today, April 2017, the majority of the response is silence despite the amount of visits identified by all the SEO tools and the interactions and shares accounted. See the related stats at the Timeline page.

So I thank your open feedback and share.

Nowadays, there are many divisions between disciplines due to the isolated nature of their specific language and methodologies. I might not use the right vocabulary for all the fields which I discuss, or the right data or the right reasoning. But when nobody is able to offer a consensus over what it is going on, I wonder, what is right this days?.

Licencia de Creative Commons
Esta obra está bajo una licencia de Creative Commons Reconocimiento-NoComercial 4.0 Internacional.

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

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About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Citing This Site "Title", published online "Month"+"Year", retrieved on "Month""Day", "Year" from http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! DOIs can be generated on demand by request at email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com for those publications missing at the ResearchGate profile vinculated with this project. **Author´s profile: Born in 1974. Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my work previous to 2013 as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After 12 years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, in 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my own line of research. In the current competitive scenario, in order to demonstrate my capacities instead of just moving my cv waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I decided to invest my energy and time in opening my own line of research sharing it in this blog. In March 2017 the budget reserved for this project has ended and its weekly basis time frame discontinued until new forms of economic and/or institutional support are incorporated into the project. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this platform and at LinkedIn has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my achievements and that the Intellectual Property Rights generated with the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in similar lines of research. **Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome as well as any approach exploring professional opportunities to be part of.** In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2017, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2017. Filling in or Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/
This entry was posted in Energy Balance, Environmental Resilience, Extreme climatic events, Filling in, Finding out, Influence of Continentality, Inland Water Bodies and Water Cycle, Polar vortex and Jet Stream, Water vapour and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

One Response to Statistical Significance and The Scary Side of Being Mild (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)

  1. (9 Oct 2017) Statistical Significance and The Scary Side of Being Mild (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)
    Research · October 2017
    DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.21934.61767
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320474373_9_Oct_2017_Statistical_Significance_and_The_Scary_Side_of_Being_Mild_by_Diego_Fdez-Sevilla_PhD

    Like

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