Discussing Climatic Teleconnections. Follow Up On My Previous Research (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)


Discussing Climatic Teleconnections. Follow UP On My Previous Research (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

How to Cite This Site (link).

(DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2962.7605)

I believe that the present weather events occurring over the North Hemispheric Atlantic, sustain the arguments which I have discussed previously presenting possible mechanisms acting as a response to atmospheric GHGs and Water Vapour forcing.

7 Oct 2015 Artic WP incorporation Diego FdezSevillaThe major indicator would be the sporadic and unpredictable behaviour of the Jet stream, which not only is wobbly in latitude, but also in the vertical profile of the atmosphere, unable to break blocking patterns of atmospheric pressure such as Highs over Western Europe and over Western USA (California).

Blocking Highs interfering with the Polar Jet Stream at NH on 14th Oct 2015Accordingly, we can see alterations in the thermodynamical behaviour of the tropospheric circulation. In turn, when this cold air touches the lower level of our atmosphere, activates the energy accumulated in the Water vapour contained in it as latent heat, delivering new forms of energy; “Heat waves”, “kinetic” provoking strong winds, “electrostatic” generating lightnings and “potential” carried in the mass of all the water coming from its gaseous state into liquid or solid precipitation.

I have already discussed what is my theory about what it is happening that it is generating such a wobbly jet stream in latitude and altitude. This theory was published in a previous post and it points out the incorporation of masses of water vapour into polar latitudes as consequence of CO2 forcing as the cause wearing out the strength of the Polar Jet Stream.

Water vapour circulation globally 7th Sept 2015 DiegoFdezSevilla Arctic Dynamics Breathing IN-OUT by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

I also have suggested that such incorporation of masses of water vapour into Polar Latitudes could be linked with the formation of blocking patterns and persistent cyclonic events in the Atlantic and the Pacific.

Pacific Atm circulation North Pacific by Diego Fdez-Sevilla Numerical and visual by Diego Fdez-Sevilla 10 Feb 2015 Wind Surf_250 hPa_Pressure by DiegoFdezSevilla Circulation in Altitude 19 Jan 2015

Furthermore, the frequent synchronicity in the occurrence of several events of Low pressure happening simultaneously in time and location at the North Hemispheric Atlantic and Pacific points to a interconnection in atmospheric circulation which would be implicated in the developments of all atmospheric teleconnections identified at global scale (ENSO, NAO, MJO, PDO, PNA).

2014 to 2015 700hPa T NHThe present patterns seen in the circulation over the Arctic, linking Pacific and Atlantic circulations (more also here), are consistent with the mechanisms presented in this theory.

Arctic Dynamics IN-OUT Diego Fdez-SevillaFurthermore, I believe that these mechanisms point to an interconnection between Atlantic and Pacific atmospheric circulations through the Arctic, which could be dominating the teleconnections identified at global scale and the oceanic and atmospheric phenomena that affect our weather at global scale.

In the following video I present the latest developments in atmospheric dynamics occurred between 13rd to 15th of October over the North Hemisphere. For better quality use HD definition.

Water Vapor Profile Retrievals for NOAA 19 on the 20th Oct 2015.

3D 20th Oct15 WV N19 by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

Water Vapor Profile Retrievals for NOAA 19 on the 20th Oct 2015.

Discussion.

My arguments support the existence of a chain of links in atmospheric dynamics being affected by an enhanced capacity of the atmosphere to absorb energy through water vapour due to GHGs forcing.

A synergistic interaction between GHGs and aerosols induce an increase in the capacity of the atmosphere to carry Water Vapour, incorporating higher amounts of energy carried in its mass and in form of latent heat. Such circumstance alter atmospheric thermodynamics reducing gradients of energy between cyclonic events and their surroundings, allowing the creation of blocking patterns and the strength of Subtropical Highs. The constant friction between subpolar warm and wet masses of air with cold and dry from Polar latitudes, wear off the thermal contrast between latitudes, triggering a Wobbly Jet Stream. Consequently, a weak Jet Stream opens wider the Arctic Pole circulation to accommodate the energy carried in the atmosphere by Water Vapour. And secondary, strengthens a “trans-Arctic link” between Atlantic and Pacific circulations, enhancing the interconnectivity between atmospheric circulation on both Oceans, with a subsidiary consequence, affecting Equatorial winds. Furthermore, the incorporation of water vapour into polar latitudes would incorporate energy in the form of latent heat which would affect SST, altering the patterns in the formation of snow and ice, affecting the Atlantic and global Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC). Finally, the much higher volume of masses of air and water hold at the equator would amplify the disturbances occurring at the Arctic atmospheric dynamics, responding in a form of “Pacific or equatorial Amplification”, through atmospheric and SST perturbations (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla).

In conclusion.

Thermal conductivity in the atmosphere and at the oceans, and Heat displacements could indicate an alteration in the gradients of energy fuelling weather events locally. But, by becoming linked al global scale, the interaction between cells of atmospheric circulation could potentially modify the stability of climatic regimes required for the development and survival of natural species of plant and animal kingdoms (more here and here).

If things are changing in atmospheric circulation, the atmospheric behaviour linked to previous El Niño events might change also. Therefore, the patterns associated with the ENSO phases as we have seen it in previous years, might become obsolete, representing a period of transition between old and new atmospheric conditions. That could also apply to the patterns associated with the NAO and the Polar Vortex.

The changes we might face in Atmospheric Composition and Land Cover and Use, will always being followed by alterations in Thermodynamical behaviour towards increasing entropy. The only mechanisms playing resilience against those changes, towards reducing entropy, are the ones driven by Biological presence and processes. In one hand by reducing albedo, absorbing CO2, enhancing soil properties and fixing energy in an inert form. In other hand,  by its “functionally adapted” distribution around the world, by the “morphological configuration” as individuals and as whole ecosystems, by the interactive characteristic metabolisms aimed to control specific conditions in their surroundings and by the less understood contribution from Biological processes in atmospheric developments (here and here). The capacity of transformation that the human specie, and its activities, has to change the composition of the Atmosphere and the Oceans, the structure of the Land Cover, and the self evolved functionality of Biological systems compromise the “stability” of the whole planetary system by interfering with the performance of those mechanisms of resilience which are the result of years of evolution.

This research is open for discussion considering constructive feedback. In my research, I value any contribution towards testing its limitations or enhancing its validity.  I can not be an expert on every field of science related so I appreciate any feedback. Identifying wrong assumptions by incorporating constructive arguments is as good as strengthening its value from supporting arguments.

For more research over each part of the ecosystem connected with atmospheric dynamics explore the post published under each category.

Climatic Teleconnections

Spatially and temporally large-scale anomalies that influence the variability of the atmospheric circulation.

A coordinated program to monitor, assess and predict climate phenomena and their linkage to weather events. Important oceanic and atmospheric phenomena that affect our weather are:

  • Arctic Oscillation (AO)
    Information on the Arctic Oscillation (AO), a large scale mode of climate variability, also referred to as the Northern Hemisphere annular mode.
  • El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
    Information on the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature and air pressure in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
    Information on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, which is based on the surface sea-level pressure difference between the Subtropical (Azores) High and the Subpolar Low.
  • Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
    Information on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), often described as a long-lived El Nino-like pattern of Pacific climate variability.
  • Pacific-North America Index (PNA)
    Information the Pacific-North America (PNA) pattern, one of the most prominent modes of low-frequency variability in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, appearing in all months except June and July.

—- xxx —-

(This post is part of a more complex piece of independent research. I don´t have founding, political agenda or publishing revenues from visits. Any scientist working in disciplines related with the topics that I treat in my blog knows how to judge the contribution that my work could potentially add to the state of knowledge. Since I am in transition looking for a position in research, if you are one of those scientists, by just acknowledging any value you might see from my contribution, would not only make justice to my effort as independent researcher, but ultimately, it will help me to enhance my chances to find a position with resources to further develop my work.

I believe that the hypothesis that I have presented in previous posts in this blog (here,here and here) could help to understand present and possible future scenarios in atmospheric circulation. However, this is an assessment based on observation which needs to be validated throughout open discussion and data gathering. So please feel free to incorporate your thoughts and comments in a constructive manner.

If you feel like sharing this post I would appreciate to have a reference about the place or platform, by private or public message, in order for me to have the opportunity to join the debate and be aware of the repercussion which might generate d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com)

For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out):

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About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Citing This Site "Title", published online "Month"+"Year", retrieved on "Month""Day", "Year" from http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my previous work as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After couple of years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, I find myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my research. In the present competitive scenario, instead of just moving my cv and wait for my next opportunity to arrive, I have decided to invest also my energy and time in opening my own line of research showing what I am capable of. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this blog has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my work and the intellectual rights represented by the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in this line of research. Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome. In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2017, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2016. Filling in or Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/
This entry was posted in Aerobiology, Aerosols, Biological productivity, Energy Balance, Environmental Resilience, Extreme climatic events, Filling in, Influence of Continentality, Inland Water Bodies and Water Cycle, Polar vortex and Jet Stream, Solar activity, Water vapour and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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