Energetic Pulses in Atmospheric Circulation Unsettle Our Climatic Scenarios (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)


Energetic Pulses in Atmospheric Circulation Unsettle Our Climatic Scenarios (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)

By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.CV english and españolResumeInterdisciplinary Skills applied in the line of research presented.- Index for all analyses published. – Shares and Feedback at LinkedIn

This article is designed for the imagery to perform best in a desktop computer.

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Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.
Producing trees is similar to producing ideas. First it requires investment to have a good soil where seeds can grow, then you need seeds with potential, then resources to feed those seeds and time taking care nursing their development. That’s how scientific knowledge and innovation raises in a productive way. Taking ideas from others without credit is like cutting trees. You get the benefit of the timber while you kill the plant which produces it and neglect the value of the work behind it. I do not have institutional or economic support to publish my research in academia, that is for the funded and accommodated ones. Those of us with a PhD but not position, we are equally productive the day we are sitting in the office of an University as the day our contracts run out and have to sit in a library. We are not different and neither is the value of my research. That is why my work is registered with DOIs and Credit Commons Licensing, two systems of registry and citation recognised by the academic world and legal Property Laws.
Even though it might seem a long piece to read through, I would like to add some perspective for the reader and keep in mind that it has taken me since October 2013, more than five years to write it. Any feedback is welcome. An index with all analyses and DOIs with their links can be found at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com and https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Diego_Fdez-Sevilla/contributions The whole project published and all publications, including those without a DOI, is licensed with a Creative commons license Attribution non commercial. Also with registry at https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8685-0206 After seeking feedback from experts in the field by email (Jennifer Francis among them) and platforms such as AGU and NOAA groups at linkedIn, my assessments have not received comments or arguments invalidating the conclusions presented. I expose my assessments in this blog enabling Official Bodies and Established scientists to consider the value of my research despite its informal format. EGU 2017. GDB4 – Is Open Science the way to go?”. min 56 Q&A Data Citations and Credit on producing data) https://lnkd.in/e89qv_Z
Due to the lack of funding supporting my activity analysing atmospheric developments I can not be involved full time. Anyone interested in having my take on current dynamics feel free to leave a message here or at the blog. If you or your institution are interested in investing to further develop the project already published at the blog and researchgate you can contact me at d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com

____________ INDEX _________

Energy

Energetic Pulses in Atmospheric Circulation Drive a Climatic Scenario in Constant Motion

The Use of Energy

The use of energy in Weather events

The use of energy in Circulation

NH Polar Vortex

Atmospheric Conditions

Arctic Dynamics

From previous analysis: Arctic Dynamics as part of a Global Pattern in Atmospheric Circulation. Research Follow-up October 2018 (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Posted on October 18, 2018 Registered in pdf at Researchgate October 2018 DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.26042.03522

Discrepancies Between Conclusions Reached in the Present Line of Research and Those From Mainstream.

Temp anom 2m, SST, Ice cover and thickness NH, ENSO, SOI and Polar Vortex  Configuration

The Arctic Reservoir

Implications from present research over the debate offered at conferences.

Q&A by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD

Research Scope

Research Follow -Up

Framework

Weather, Climate, Energy, Environment and Man

The Test of Time against Current Dynamics

The Test of Time. Validation by Current Dynamics

Miscellaneous. The Difference Between Knowledge, Wisdom and Insight.

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___________ Energy ___________

Energy is that thing we name without knowing really what it is. Not always We can see it but we can feel it.

Writing on subjects which consider science as a background is always a risk. First of all because there is much pressure on ensuring that all points of view are considered, that those are accurate and that the use of any scientific content is not interpreted with a hidden agenda.

It becomes even more difficult when the arguments and the issues addressed are hard to be offered in a tangible manner when the perspective applied comes from outside mainstream considerations. And that is a big challenge in the line of research offered by me in this blog over climatic alterations.

I want to use an example to show how sometimes it becomes a challenge to make a point get through as soon as it becomes out of the box made by the regular mainstream perception.

In my academic years I spent 8 hours a day for 10 months using a microscope to identify airborne particles. From such experience I learnt about the optical properties of mediums and the different techniques which can be applied to manipulate light. (I wrote about it in a previous post you can find in this link)I applied this experience later on to test and design different methodologies studying the aerodynamics properties of pollen grains in Aerobiological studies.

Similar with energy, we see objects only when light bounces off them or bends through them. If an object doesn’t change the direction in which light is moving, we can’t see it. When light passes from one medium to another, the light changes speed, and when it changes speed, it changes direction a little bit. The degree to which the light changes direction is called the Index of Refraction. (external Ref)

Refraction causes light to bend as it passes from one material to another and the amount of bending depending on the refractive index of the material. In this activity we place a small beaker inside a larger beaker. We then fill the small beaker with vegetable oil, allowing the oil to overflow till the large beaker is filled as well. We find that the small beaker disappears when we do this! The glass of the beaker and the vegetable oil have refractive indices that are almost equal. Thus , as light passes from the small beaker to the oil outside, the light does not bend too much and we cannot see the small beaker.

Something that I would add for  a multidisciplinary audience is that this optical effect also happens with satellite imagery. Fascinating when it is combined the experience of hours with  a microscope into other disciplines in  a macro world like satellite imagery.

In research what it is relevant it is not always what it is New, but what it doesn´t get old.

One stage of research comes when looking into offering something New; New data, New interpretations, New methods, making “the News”, being the First … And then, once the “New” has been offered, it is all about confirmation, re-evaluation, validation, review and application.

In my line of research, at one stage I have offered New interpretations on climatic developments adopting New points of view addressing New synergistic interactions delivering New Conclusions and Implications in weather patterns, atmospheric circulation and biotic performance.

In a following stage I have re-shared all those New assessments to be contrasted against real time developments been unfolded in the next years.

In 2014 I discussed and published my views on the subject of identifying Climatic Variations highlighting  a new proposal to explain current developments. That was my theory over gradients of energy being reduced due to an increase in the atmospheric energetic pool carried by water vapour.

New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Posted on available in pdf at Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4859.3440

The pivoting point shared through previous assessments and current dynamics is found in the weak state of the Polar Jet Stream representing the convective dynamics forced by mid-latitudinal adiabatic dynamics, describing an increase in atmospheric mixing dynamics. See also related post “Statistical significance“.

(animations from previous assessments)

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– Energetic Pulses in Atmospheric Circulation Drive a Climatic Scenario in Constant Motion –

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Cold and warm dynamics at tropospheric and stratospheric levels have happened simultaneously. And if there is a progression it comes by seeing through the seasons warm temperatures moving north followed by seeing a stratospheric Warming process which delivers a weak Polar Vortex configuration.

Despite all the theories available my interpretation is simple about what is happening, between global warming and global cooling we are living under a process of global mixing, promoted by an increase in the atmospheric energy pool, using water vapour as the carrier of such energetic extra thanks to an enhanced thermal capacity generated from increasing GHGs, Albedo and Aerosols. The origin of this imbalance in the energetic pool driving the thermodynamic system can be associated with changes in the composition, structure, location and concentration of the components integrating the Planetary system. Human activities can be associated with all those changes (more discussion on this can be found in the timeline of this blog and at the bottom of this article).

The question  driving the whole debate on Climatic Deviations from “a Normal”, or Climatic Drift, focus most of the methodologies on temperature.

However I have followed a different approach in my analyses looking at Gradients of Energy in all its forms. That is why in 2014 I offered my thoughts as a theory of practical applications.

Energy fuels the work done by warm masses of air displacing colder masses of air in their path. That increases mixing patterns generating anomalies in temperature.

Behind an increase in the amount of work carried out by masses of air there is an increase in the energy fuelling such dynamics. Energy can only be transferred, not created or destroyed. So more work means more energy in circulation. More energy in circulation can only be sustained by a substance carrying it. Either if we consider that the energy driving anomalies comes from the Sun or from the Oceansthe carrier has to be in the atmosphere in order for the energy to produce work. And the body loosing heat cools down.

A corridor of wind over the Arctic is triggered by a conversion of Temperature into work, convection and advection, which are the result of mixing masses of air. As I have published in previous analyses, such Trans-Arctic connection between Atlantic and Pacific Basins is part of a pattern increasing the mixing ratio between masses of air otherwise separated by thermal compartmentalization, like the Polar Jet Stream. An increase in the dispersion of energetic forms have different outcomes, one of which it would be a temporary reduction in the average temperature resultant for the mixing between Cold (Arctic) and warm (Mid-Latitude) masses of air as well as in altitude (SSW).

Subsequently, “temperature” is less reliable than looking at “work” seen even in the “mild” events.

In the framework presented throughout the line of research published in this blog (and researchgate) it has been considered “Climate” as being defined by the amount of energy free to do work. In other words, energy free to promote weather events. Accordingly, in my research I define Climate by the amount and state of energy in circulation, and Weather by the use of this energy.

Consequently, with the definition applied for Climate and Weather, my definition of Climate Drift is:

“the deviation from equilibrium of the conditions allowing the perpetuity of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in a micro and macro ecosystem. This situation can be due to changes in any component of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes can be either a change in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality or rates in the flows of energy pre-established OR/AND the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components/forces and energy sinks or sources in any part of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance.”

In my assessments I have defended that the increase in the energy pool at mid-latitudes would ultimately create an scenario with an overcharged atmosphere. That would reduce the contrasts with which to create and maintain stability in the structure required to condense energy in singular events, like hurricanes. Giving more relevance to the single contrast between Ocean/continental masses. However, the opening of the Arctic circulation through a weak Jet Stream would reduce the pressure in the containment absorbing the condensation of energy at mid-latitudes, expanding into a new volume.

Accordingly, hadley circulation gets affected (see also) generating new patterns of turbulence at the ITCZ as well as it gets influenced Arctic mixing zones with lower latitudes.

In this scenario TCs are generated under an increase in the mixing ratio of an unstable atmospheric circulation dominated by kinetic energy transferred by water vapour thanks to GHGs, and immersed in an overcharged atmosphere with no place where to diffuse its energy, becoming resilient as long as they stay over the ocean. So they endure like a piece of an ice rock in cold water.

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– The Use of Energy –

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The use of energy in Weather events in the North Hemisphere.

29 January 2019 . State of our weather patterns on the News. www.severe-weather.eu

New round of snow for Wales and south England tonight and tomorrow  New round of snow for Wales and south England tonight and tomorrow 31/01/2019

Excessive precipitation in the Alps and northern Mediterranean region (southeastern France, north Italy, Slovenia Croatia) through Saturday Excessive precipitation in the Alps and northern Mediterranean region (southeastern France, north Italy, Slovenia Croatia) through Saturday 31/01/2019

An extreme pattern flip across the northern United States – from frigid Arctic outbreak into spring weather in only 3 daysAn extreme pattern flip across the northern United States – from frigid Arctic outbreak into spring weather in only 3 days 31/01/2019

Another deep cyclone will bring severe winds into the Bay of Biscay and huge waves along the coasts of NW Iberia tomorrow, Friday Feb 1stAnother deep cyclone will bring severe winds into the Bay of Biscay and huge waves along the coasts of NW Iberia tomorrow, Friday Feb 1st 31/01/2019

Week 3 (January 14 – 20, 2019) Contest WinnersWeek 3 (January 14 – 20, 2019) Contest Winners 30/01/2019

 

UPDATE on large amounts of rainfall and flood threat in parts of the Iberian Peninsula this weekUPDATE on large amounts of rainfall and flood threat in parts of the Iberian Peninsula this week 29/01/2019

Latest UPDATE on the deep cyclone and severe windstorm for western France todayLatest UPDATE on the deep cyclone and severe windstorm for western France today 29/01/2019

Brutal Arctic outbreak will push into the Great Lakes (United States) region through mid this week, windchills towards -65F / -50 °C, Jan 29 – 31stBrutal Arctic outbreak will push into the Great Lakes (United States) region through mid this week, windchills towards -65F / -50 °C, Jan 29 – 31st 29/01/2019

Snow for parts of Ireland and UK in the next 3-4 days!Snow for parts of Ireland and UK in the next 3-4 days! 28/01/2019

 

UPDATE on the deep cyclone / intense windstorm on track for western France tomorrowUPDATE on the deep cyclone / intense windstorm on track for western France tomorrow 28/01/2019

More Saharan dust for Greece, Turkey and Cyprus today – January 29, 2019More Saharan dust for Greece, Turkey and Cyprus today – January 29, 2019 28/01/2019

The Absolute Best – Top 50 photos in SWE Photography Contest in 2018The Absolute Best – Top 50 photos in SWE Photography Contest in 2018 27/01/2019

Weekly pattern overview – progressive pattern with deep troughs and cyclones across W/SW Europe, warmer across E Europe, Jan 28th – Feb 3rdWeekly pattern overview – progressive pattern with deep troughs and cyclones across W/SW Europe, warmer across E Europe, Jan 28th – Feb 3rd 27/01/2019

Large amounts of rainfall (and snow) for parts of the Iberian Peninsula this weekLarge amounts of rainfall (and snow) for parts of the Iberian Peninsula this week 27/01/2019

Explosive cyclogenesis and a deep cyclone for western France and northern Spain on TuesdayExplosive cyclogenesis and a deep cyclone for western France and northern Spain on Tuesday 27/01/2019


__Use of energy in Circulation in the North Hemisphere__

It is cold in America, in North America, in some parts of North America, not in Alaska, so how much relevant is that it is cold “in some parts of North America” for the debate on Climate?

After a strong stratospheric warming pulse, The Polar Vortex has been broken for couple of weeks through January 2019 so, how much relevant is that the Polar Vortex was broken in January to have Cold displacements from the Arctic circulation into Mid-Latitudes?

In December 8, 2018 Asia already suffered an extreme cold wave before the break down of the Polar Vortex: “Extreme cold grips Asia, Beijing experiences one of the coldest December days on record” Posted by on

And Europe has received a constant visit from Arctic intrusions throughout the whole year 2018 without considerations from the Polar Vortex configuration. Dynamics over Europe for Airmass (air temperature Eumetsat) without a Polar Vortex Broken.

29 Jan 2019                                                               13 December 2018

North Hemisphere ECMWF 850T 500G

29 Jan 2018                       25 December 2018                  17 December 2018

In relation with previous publication: Persistent Mixing Dynamics in Atmospheric Circulation Generates a Seasonal Transition Marked by Kinetic Processes, Exothermic in Nature (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) 12 December 2018

__________NH Polar Vortex ________________

NOAA 29 January 2019

ECMWF (via DWD) 29 January 2019                                22 December 2018

__________Atmospheric Conditions ______________

12 January 2019

4 November 2018

31 October 2018

Daily geopotential height anomalies at 17 pressure levels (NOAA)

18 Dec 2018 Total Precipitable Water and Wind Conditions at Jet Stream level, relevant to be contrasted with previous analysis Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. (UPGRADED 24th March2015)2015/02/10.

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_________ Arctic Dynamics _________

From previous analysis: Arctic Dynamics as part of a Global Pattern in Atmospheric Circulation. Research Follow-up October 2018 (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Posted on Registered in pdf at Researchgate October 2018 DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.26042.03522

The Arctic has been suffering a continuous process of warming throughout 2018.

Temperature anomaly in relation to average values during the period 2004-2013, in addition to current wind conditions. They are based on daily registrations during the past 50 days. All data is shown as an average over 5 days.

2m Temp Anom & MSLP

The implications over the weather conditions around the NH are enough to affect the transitions between seasons with a repetitions of the patterns seen in atmospheric circulation through Spring and Autumn (see following images and an extended discussion at: Seasonal Transitions under a New Climatic Scenario. by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18385.22881 June 29, 2018):

31 January 2019

10 April 2018

This atmospheric pattern of instability, the weather events associated and the Warm Anomalies at high Latitudes, are less related with Solar radiation as the years pass forward (more discussion at Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20129.81760 December 17, 2016)

Estimated daily dosage of erythemally weighted UV radiation. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

The line of research presented by Diego Fdez-Sevilla (PhD) in this blog and researchgate since 2013 and throughout more than 200 analyses, has reached conclusions which differ from mainstream theories addressing the “drivers” and “implications” from such warming at high latitudes.

The current line of research studies and discusses current developments throughout publications from 2013 to date.

In the analyses presented I offer points of view unifying in a single argument the behaviour of drivers such as ENSO, Arctic Amplification and Polar Vortex configuration. That is:

An increase in the atmospheric energetic pool in the form of free state is fuelling a mixing dynamic (Convective motion) responsible for creating fluctuations in temperature patterns, and yet, denoting a constant increase in “kinetic displayments”.

The increasing warming over mid-latitudes is using water vapour as the carrier of energy incorporating it over the whole atmosphere and into Arctic latitudes. Such mechanism will increase the energy pool at the Arctic, what in other words can be seen as an increase in temperature and processes of SSW affecting the POLAR Vortex configuration. Furthermore, the spread of energy contained by water vapour also affects the resilience shown by Lows and Highs to dissipate their energy at lower latitudes and affects developments at the ITCZ zone and equatorial wind shear at the Eq. Pacific. A pattern of change in the atmosphere dynamics beyond considering global warming or cooling. That is, global mixing.

Throughout the assessments presented in the current line of research I have defended that the increase in the energy pool at mid-latitudes would ultimately create an scenario with an overcharged atmosphere. That would reduce the contrasts with which to create and maintain stability in the structure required to condense energy in singular events, like hurricanes. Giving more relevance to the single contrast between Ocean/continental masses. However, the opening of the Arctic circulation through a weak Jet Stream would reduce the pressure in the containment absorbing the condensation of energy at mid-latitudes, expanding into a new volume.

Accordinglyhadley circulation gets affected (see also) generating new patterns of turbulence at the ITCZ as well as it gets influenced Arctic mixing zones with lower latitudes.

In this scenario TCs are generated under an increase in the mixing ratio of an unstable atmospheric circulation dominated by kinetic energy transferred by water vapour thanks to GHGs, and immersed in an overcharged atmosphere with no place where to diffuse its energy, becoming resilient as long as they stay over the ocean. So they endure like a piece of an ice rock in cold water.

About Sea Surface Temperatures, my assessments take SST as subsequent conditions driven by wind shear. So the interaction between masses of air in circulation allows or inhibits SST developments. Once the scenario is built on SST this becomes a “battle field” conditioning the subsequent interaction between the following masses of air and the characteristics of the “grounds” where the game will be played (sort of speak). Like the effect of the ice conditions in an ice hockey match.

El Niño is an event which happens in a very small portion of the Earth, it is related to the temperature of a very thin layer of the Ocean in depth, a small percentage of the area occupied by the whole Oceanic masses, and even smaller when it is integrated in the multidimensional space combining Ocean and atmosphere. It is kind of intriguing to think why it has been so easy to conclude that such small portion of the entire system is driving it as a whole. It is like considering that the flowering of plants drives the seasons. Similarly it could be said about using SST at the Arctic to justify altogether; the lack of ice, warmer temperatures at tropospheric level and even at stratospheric level. There is not enough energy in the SST of such small area as it is the Arctic to justify all those convective dynamics.

Throughout the line of research presented several animations have addressed the arguments offered supporting with a visual aid the patterns addressed.

In images the research here presented would look like:

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Discrepancies Between Conclusions Reached in the Present Line of Research and Those From Mainstream.


Since 2002 I have performed research over the Atmospheric Dynamics interacting with the biota in the field of Aerobiology (PhD studying atmospheric conditions affecting the efficiency of pollen sampling and the aerodynamic behaviour of pollen. Conclusions here. Article on anthropogenic forcing over plants performance here).

In Oct 2013 I focused my attention over climatic dynamics.

In  AUGUST 2014, Cohen et al, published a review over the state of knowledge on Climatic Assessments: “Review Article: Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather.” Nature Geoscience volume 7, pages 627–637 (2014) (DOI:10.1038/NGEO2234).

“The theory that Arctic amplification is resulting in a slower zonal jet, increased meridional flow, amplified waves and more persistent extreme weather has received a lot of attention from the media, policymakers and climate scientists. In part due to the high profile, this hypothesis has been scrutinized in the scientific literature more extensively than other hypotheses linking Arctic climate change to mid-latitude weather. However, it is worth noting that other studies on related topics, especially other studies on related topics, especially other observational studies, share some of the same shortcomings: lack of statistical significance, causality unclear, incomplete mechanistic understanding, and so on”.

Based on my analyses, in Oct 2014 I published what I believe to be a valid theory explaining current developments in atmospheric dynamics.

The assessments presented in this line of research are not weather reports but interpretations over emerging dynamics, offering arguments and discussion addressing the gaps of knowledge found in academia in order to identify mechanisms giving sense to data.

In the analyses presented I offer points of view unifying in a single argument the behaviour of drivers such as ENSO, Arctic Amplification and Polar Vortex configuration.

That is, an increase in the atmospheric energetic pool in the form of free state is fuelling a mixing dynamic (Convective motion) responsible for creating fluctuations in temperature patterns, and yet, denoting a constant increase in kinetic displayments. Water vapour acts as the carrier of energy incorporating it over the whole atmosphere and into Arctic latitudes

  • increasing the energy pool at the Arctic
  • increasing Arctic temperature and processes of SSW affecting the POLAR Vortex configuration. 
  • affecting the resilience shown by Lows and Highs to dissipate their energy at lower latitudes and
  • affecting developments at the ITCZ zone and equatorial wind shear at the Eq. Pacific.

A pattern of change in global mixing.


Temp anom 2m, SST, Ice cover and thickness NH, ENSO, SOI and Polar Vortex  Configuration


(In the following sections I want to point out some specific analyses shared previously addressing these drivers. The aim for this is to offer the opportunity to read those and contrast their validity against current developments and against the theories based on the mentioned drivers. Afterwards, there are extracts from previous publications extending the discussion as part of the validation of previous analyses against current developments.)

In scientific research, arguments increase their value the less they need to be modified throughout time in order to fit with the developments unfold after their proposal. For this reason, in the present line of research I have applied a constant follow-up re-sharing analyses published in previous years in order to assess the validity of the conclusions raised based on those in contrast with the developments seen afterwards:

  • Some theories like “Arctic Amplification” postulates that such process is resultant of local conditions pointing to anomalous Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) as the driver behind this warming. This theory also postulates that such anomalous warming in the Arctic latitudes generates an impact over Mid latitudinal Circulation.

December 2018 -January 2019 _ 30-day NH 50-30-10 hPa Temperatures & Daily geopotential height anomalies at 17 pressure levels

Based on previous observations, the conditions of the SST at the Arctic have differ between years and yet, the intrusions of water vapour from Mid-Latitudinal circulation have been a constant as well as the kinetic dynamics at the Arctic have kept momentum through the horizontal and vertical profiles, disproving the argument purposed and demonstrating the value of previous conclusions  achieved in the line of research here presented:

“Mid latitudinal convective forcing dominates Arctic Dynamics.”

Some example of the analyses offered in contrast with this theory can be found following the links to the following publications:

October 21, 2014 New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4859.3440
November 17, 2016 Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.24688.35848
December 17, 2016 Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20129.81760
February 28, 2018 Arctic Warming as a Result of Convective Forcing by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD  Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34551.73125
October 18, 2018 Arctic Dynamics as part of a Global Pattern in Atmospheric Circulation. Research Follow-up October 2018 (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Pdf available at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.26042.03522
  • Other theory looks at the state of the Polar Vortex as the one driving tropospheric circulation. Accordingly to this theory, when the NH Polar Vortex breaks the NH Mid-latitudinal circulation gets affected by cold snaps.

Based on previous observations, the conditions of the Polar Vortex have been different between periods of the year and yet, the kinetic dynamics at the North hemisphere have kept momentum through the horizontal and vertical profiles, disproving the argument purposed.

“Following the current line of study we are witnessing the evolution of a climatic regime reacting to pressures defining a calendar in a chain reaction following phases.”

After the “Warming phase” We are in the phase “Heat Into Motion”.

29Jan 2019 ECMWF 850T500Gp

Some example of the analyses offered in contrast with this theory can be found following the links to the following publications:

March 14, 2014 The breakdown of the Polar Vortex. It happened before so, What would follow? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
October 7, 2014 What type of Polar vortex configuration can we expect for this winter? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
November 14, 2014 Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2500.0488
November 22, 2014 The Polar Vortex breaks again in the North Hemisphere 22 Nov 2014. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
November 29, 2014 (Updated 5/Jan/2015) State of the Polar Vortex. Broken? 29/Nov/14 – 5th/Jan/15 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
December 18, 2015 Climate and weather December 2015. Another Polar Vortex another Heat Wave? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.19966.48968
February 4, 2016 (updated 11-18 Feb2016) Polar Vortex, Old News, Same News? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25779.12328
October 25, 2016 Another Heat Wave Another Polar Vortex II … Broken (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.13418.93124
November 10, 2016 Cyclonic Alignment Towards the Arctic (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.27102.95046
November 17, 2016 Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Researchgate:  DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.24688.35848
February 28, 2018 Arctic Warming as a Result of Convective Forcing by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD  Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34551.73125
October 18, 2018 Arctic Dynamics as part of a Global Pattern in Atmospheric Circulation. Research Follow-up October 2018 (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Pdf available at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.26042.03522

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– The Arctic Reservoir-

From previous analysis: A New Pattern in Atmospheric Circulation drives towards an “unpredictable” New Climatic Scenario (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Posted on Registered with DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.31673.62567

The drainage of the “Arctic cold reservoir” is a process which started with a timid seasonal waving on the Polar Jet Stream. This process has become more extreme by the years, beginning to show as the collapse of a wall under the pressure on a tide gaining strength. Convective forcing from mid latitudes is invading the north pole forcing the displacement of cold masses into foreign territories. What began as a process marked by seasonal pulses, it is showing to maintain momentum throughout seasons.

Follow-up and Validation of Previous Assessments __________________

Having and idea is simple. Making an idea simple is complicated. To make your idea a tangible product so others can find access to it, is the most demanding and challenging endeavour of all.

So I have applied imagery from different sources and created my own in order to facilitate the transmission of the meaning behind my words. (See images here and video-animation here)

One main concept has been constant since the beginning of my assessments. Energy is getting spread in latitude, longitude and altitude due to the incorporation of GHGs which enhance atmospheric thermal resilience (absorbs and maintain temperature) inducing increases in Water vapour content which increases energy conductance (gravimetric, thermal and kinetic). The implications derived from such assessment have been covered throughout several publications in this blog addressing all parts of the ecosystem and the weather events associated. From plant growth and displacements, soil degradation, weather patterns, ocean circulation and polar ice cover to energy demands.

The imagery offered has been the best I could at the time with the resources available. Now, people at NASA have applied their resources to look at the distribution of GHGs in the atmosphere based on their models and they have come out with a representation which might help to visualize what I have been trying to describe through my research. An increase in global mixing ratio.

Carbon Dioxide from GMAO using Assimilated OCO-2. Data Visualizations by Greg Shirah on December 13, 2016

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However, the representation from NASA, lacks the capacity to represent relevant atmospheric features which play a key role in the line of research presented through this blog such as

  • the Polar Jet Stream currents,

gfs-nh-polar-jet-stream-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd-22-sept-init drops-of-weather-sept-2016-diegto-fdez-sevilla-phd gfs-arctic-ws250-2016-09-06-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd gefs-250-mb-wind-from-6-sept-2016-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

  • convective interactions

dec-2016-temp-10-mb-used-by-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd dec-2016-temp-50-mb-applied-by-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

  • and pressure fronts interaction in the three dimensionality of the atmosphere.

2014_16-nh-atlantic-basin-vertical-profile-wind-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

20-oct-pmsl-chart

8_14-nov-2016-water-solid-tendency-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

 

gfs-t2_anom-2016-nov-04-init-diego-fdez-sevilla-phdPolar vortex 4th Jan 2016 ECMWF NOAA Diego Fdez-Sevilla

ir-25-oct-2016-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

The implications derived from the assessments presented in this line of research from plant growth and displacements, soil degradation, weather patterns, ocean circulation and polar ice cover to energy demands, have repercussions which are being increasingly addressed by more studies:

  • The planet is heating up faster than species can migrate. A new study finds evidence of many local extinctions. By Marlene Cimons Nexus Media December 9, 2016. Source

__________________________________________________

Applications of present research over the debate offered at conferences.

On the 13th Dec 2016, the latest Arctic Report Card from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) was presented at the 2016 AGU meeting (American Geophysical Union).

Arctic Report Card 2016
Tuesday, 13 December
10:30 a.m. Fall meeting AGU 2016

The Arctic is warming faster than anywhere else on Earth, affecting people in the region, their cultures, the wildlife they depend on for food, and their environment. This unprecedented change has broad ramifications beyond the region for the global economy, weather, climate, sea level, trade, security and energy development. The 2016 Arctic Report Card brings together the work of 61 scientists from 11 nations to provide the latest information on multiple measures of Arctic environmental change, including air and sea surface temperature, sea ice, snow cover, the Greenland ice sheet, vegetation, wildlife and the abundance of plankton at the base of the marine food chain. The peer-reviewed report led by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will also include a report on Arctic ocean acidification and essays on the increasing pressure to effectively communicate information on Arctic change to communities and other stakeholders to help them strengthen their resilience to change.

Participants:
Jeremy Mathis, NOAA Arctic Research Program, Seattle, Washington, U.S.A.;
Donald Perovich, Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire, U.S.A.;
Marco Tedesco, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York, U.S.A.

In the press conference offered to present the report card (see video above) there were many questions which have been addressed in the line of research published in this blog. Since I haven´t had the opportunity, basically lack of resources, to assist, I will take this space to integrate the results from my research into the debate:

  • Jeremy Mathis, director of NOAA’s Arctic Research Program

We have seen in 2016 at the Arctic a stronger and more pronounced signal of persistent warming than in any previous year in our observation records. And those warming effects in the Arctic have had a cascading effect through the environment including down into Arctic Ecosystems. (I deeply believe that it is much more important to consider the conditions in the Arctic as a consequence of previous dynamics in a cascade effect than the trigger)

June 5, 2015 Climate and Data. Drinking From the Source (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
October 21, 2015 Discussing Climatic Teleconnections. Follow Up On My Previous Research (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)

And while the science of what’s driving that change gets clear we need to expand and improve our ability to do sustain observations in the Arctic. (Why there was not such a big problem in identifying the impacts of CFCs over the atmospheric Ozone, the atmospheric dynamics involved and the repercussions? The alteration in the composition of the atmosphere, as well as of all other parts of a thermodynamic system (liquid, gaseous and solid phases in our environment), alters the energy flows dynamics. Such alterations affecting energy flows, sources and sinks (water cycles, soil cover and use, atmospheric emissions of solid and gaseous compounds) have an impact over the compartmentalization of the system at macro scale (planetary atmosphere) and micro scale (zonificated ecosystems)  delivering new patterns of response, (behaviour and dynamics) against external forcing (like cosmical influences, Sun’s radiation, winds, cosmic rays, …) and internal forcing  (albedo, atmospheric circulation, SST, …).

December 23, 2015 New insides on old concepts (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
August 6, 2015 Atmospheric Composition and Thermal Conductivity. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
April 6, 2016 Atmospheric Dynamics, GHG’s, Thermal Conductivity and Polar Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
November 25, 2016 Atmospheric Thermal Conductance (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)
September 22, 2016 Solar Forcing in Our Climatic and Atmospheric Dynamics. Location, Location, Location (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)
May 7, 2015 Domesticating Nature. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
  • Donald Perovich, Research Geophysicist ERDC-CRREL.

A persistent warming in air temperature over the Arctic is driving the changes we are observing. (What was first? The chicken or the egg? What causes a persistent warming in air temperature over the Arctic is the most relevant question???? Like what causes a change in the wind shear triggering the El Nino fluctuations???)

April 6, 2016 Atmospheric Dynamics, GHG’s, Thermal Conductivity and Polar Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
March 22, 2016 Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)

The extensive warm air temperature anomalies across the entire center Arctic is primarily due to southerly winds moving warm air to the Arctic from Mid Latitudes. (My research supports such statement)

Warm air and Ocean temperatures in the fall let to a record breaking delay of fall freeze up in the Arctic sea ice. (My research supports such statement)

  • Marco Tedesco, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University.

Soil weathering is affected by the warming events. (My research supports such statement)

December 9, 2015 SOILS. The Skeleton Holding The Muscle On Our Ecosystems (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
March 31, 2016 Plant growth, CO2, Soil and Nutrients. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
  • About El Nino

We will quantify how much influence has had the el nino over the Arctic warming.

What happens in the Arctic influence what happens outside the Arctic.

Again, what happens in the Arctic is the result of a process which has started already and science is not only behind identifying it, it is avoiding to face it.

  • Does this extreme Arctic warming of Nov 2016 represent a tipping point to recover from?

Donald:

This is the First act of a three act play,

 Now, Fall freeze up has been very slow, with a record minimum ice extent.

Act 2 will come in March when we see what the maximum is.

And Act three will be next September.

Based on my research we are way beyond the first of many tipping points. We are actually going through stages like cyclists or like water going through the stages from solid ice to steam. And it is being a weathering process.

“The Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything” is … 42 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 15, 2014
Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Drift. Are we there yet? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) July 2, 2015

First the conditions of thermal capacity for energy absorption increases. Energy storing begins at the part of the atmosphere receiving the highest volume of energy: Equatorial and mid latitudes. Such process starts without an increase in temperature as the volume can transfer heat into variations in volume. Then the kinetic energy is not balanced by the work delivered so there is an increase in temperature. Such increase enhance the power of the atmosphere to expand its limits into the nearest compartment. Mid latitudes have such a strong friction with high latitudes that the barrier separating Arctic circulation from Mid Latitudes begins to wear off its strength becoming wobbly in altitude and latitude. Like releasing the tension in a guitar string. Such wobbly behaviour allows mid-latitudinal masses of air to invade a new compartment. The Arctic circulation.

Such increase in the volume of space to be occupied by the energetic overloaded mid latitudinal masses of air increases the amount of kinetic energy which can be converted in work expanding its volume. Such conversion creates a pause in temperature increase. However, like a pressure cooker when releases vapour pressure from inside, the temperature stops from increasing but it does not decrease. And at the same time, the system now can accommodate more energy in an expanded volume of space. The energy pool keeps increasing and it becomes evident in the different forms of extreme discharges we see for all different forms of energy, from gravimetric energy by the volume of water and precipitations, kinetic in the form of windy events, tornadoes, etc… as well as heat waves and cold displacements triggered from intrusions of warm air into the Arctic volume.

Simultaneously with horizontal movements, the expansion of the energetically charged mass of air from mid-latitudes starts to interact in the vertical profile of the atmosphere. Such movement, enhanced by the Coriolis effect, pushes warm intrusions into Polar latitudes while raising at higher altitudes, disturbing the lower part of the polar vortex and promoting processes of Sudden Stratospheric Warming.

December 18, 2015 Climate and weather December 2015. Another Polar Vortex another Heat Wave? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
October 25, 2016 Another Heat Wave Another Polar Vortex II … Broken (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)

Since the viscosity of air is lower for cold air than warm air, the incorporation of kinetic energy into higher altitude, carried by the mid-latitudinal warm air masses, increases the energy being dispersed and weakens the organization of those features built on thermla contrasts. Consequently, the stability of atmospheric features like the Polar Jet Sream and the Polar Vortex, suffer from a decrease in the require resilience of the air masses to keep their momentum and directionality, same as streamlines get altered by a source of heat. As we can see when we observe images wobbling over warm tarmac.

October 7, 2016 Equatorial Dynamics. A conversation between Joaquin and Matthew (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

______Q&A by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.______

In my actual circumstance as independent researcher, I don´t have the resources to participate and assist personally to conferences abroad. However, I do try to promote and get involved in any discussion or debate which challenge my ideas and assessments in order to verify their integrity and coherence.

In particular I addressed the situation over the Arctic in November 2016 in some discussions at the platform linkedin which I share as follows:

Discussion 1

http://www.linkedin.com/hp/update/6207525796626591744

arctic-snowice-cover-anomaly-17-nov16-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

Commenter 1#

Probably we are getting used to read adjectives like “unusual” and “exceptional” related to climate change and, I think, this is a big social and scientific mistake. While I’m writing something alarming is happening: in mid-november arctic sea ice cover tracks 2 million sq. km below the 1981-2010 average. This exceptional lake of ice is favoring a massif heat release to the atmosphere (Arctic Amplification). It is very likely that the current weakness of the tropospheric polar vortex is related to this unusual heat movement (continues below).

Commenter 1#

this means that in the next coming weeks or months, the mid-latitudes of Northern Emisphere may be affected by several cold episodes (Europe included). It is a good news? YES, if we think about the last three very mild Winters in most of Europe, NO if we think that the main reason is probably a historical and alarming loss of Arctic sea ice. Image by National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)

Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D.

I would make a slightly different interpretation for the same conclusion. The ice cover missing is not due to a “massive heat release to the atmosphere (Arctic Amplification)” but due to an introduction of heat from mid-latitudes. The arctic snow and ice cover is lower on its rate of recovery from summer, so there is not a melt down releasing heat. The absence of “solid water” comes from the heat being transferred by intrusions of warm air. These warm intrusions are reducing the differential in energy gradients between oceanic water and atmosphere so there is not enough contrast to grow ice or to form enough snow. Since the heat can only be contained and transferred by matter, the atmosphere in the arctic containing the heat shows to carry moist from midLat instead of being dry air from Arctic circulation, and it is having an effect below its position (reducing arctic ice cover and oceanic temperatures) as well as above it, inducing the weak polar vortex. At least that is what I take from my research.

Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D.

The same conclusion which I referred to is that “The door of the Arctic freezer is not closed properly. In other words, the Polar Jet Stream is too weak to keep the Arctic isolated from MiDLatitude intrusions. With such weak Polar Jet Stream configuration we are going to get “frost” all over the place. For as long as warm air gets into the Arctic the air already there will get pushed out.

Commenter 1#

Hi Diego, I think the logical steps are: 1) large areas of Arctic ocean usually cover by ice in the Summer are, in the last 10 summers, almost always ice-free 2) this big surface of ocean absorbs heat during the Summer and early Autumn season 3) during the re-freeze season (late september-mid november) these areas release into the Atmosphere over North Pole an impressive amount of heat that weakens the polar vortex 4) the weakness of the polar vortex facilitates the northward movement of warm air masses from the mid-latitutes that contribute to weaken further the polar vortex This is my thought

Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D.

Thanks. I was writing about it to publish a more extended point in the blog. But in short what I am trying to highlight is the fact that the Arctic is a half full/half empty scenario. But we have to remember that cold is the absence of heat. The process of thinking you describe assumes that Arctic Amplification comes from an increase of heat being released in the Arctic. I disagree with that. The thermal energy accumulated through summer in the Arctic can not be transferred into the atmosphere if this atmosphere is Arctic Dry Air as it used to be. The heat contained by Arctic masses of air comes with the air mass in itself due to the moisture carried from Mid Laitudes. Since there is thermal heat within the mass of air, the heat absorbed by the Arctic can not transfer it to the atmosphere and freeze in the process.

Commenter 1#

Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D. Hi Diego, I will read your new post asap! It seems to be very interesting! Meanwhile I suggest you to read this article http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v464/n7293/full/nature09051.html

Commenter 1#

http://www.the-cryosphere.net/10/2191/2016/tc-10-2191-2016.pdf

Commenter 1#

and this https://nsidc.org/about/monthlyhighlights/2009/09/arctic-amplification

Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D.

Thanks. Yes I know the arguments and the data presented by those articles, also by Cohen and colleges and Jennifer Francis. and I agree with their observations but I disagree with their interpretation. When we look at sea ice melting we can consider a transference of energy, but from where to where? Where is the energy coming from to melt ice? Albedo is energy rejected from the system so this energy does not melt ice. You can not justify a decrease in ice based on a decrease in Albedo due to a decrease in ice. Which matter is absorbing and transferring heat into the ice? Ashes immersed in the ice? warmer surrounding water? atmosphere? What happens when one volume of mass transfers heat to another? It gets colder, so the atm column is warmer in surface colder in the middle and warmer again in altitude, always in relation with its surroundings.

Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D.

“Increased transfer of heat from the ocean to the atmosphere resulting from sea ice loss” means that sea ice is melting in a process where sea ice releases heat!!! That is against any thermodynamic coherence and understanding, despite of being in peer review articles and from recognised scientists and institutions. I am sorry but I can not agree.

Commenter 2#

Diego, There are 2 ways less ice results in the release of heat. First between 100 and 900 meter depths there is an enormous amount of heat derived from relatively warm and dense inflowing Atlantic waters that could melt Arctic ice several times over. The removal of thick mulityear ice by freezing winds removed the insulating ice cover and released more of that subsurface heat to the atmosphere. Second after the winds removed thick ice, now more new ice forms each winter and ice formation releases latent heat as well new ice having less insulating capabilities. In accord with this theoretical ventilation of Arctic ocean heat, MIT/Harvard oceanographers recently estimated the upper 700 meters of the Arctic ocean has cooled over the past 2 decades.

Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D.

Thanks 2#. Latent heat is released in a process of transference between substance with thermal conductivity. When the air above the water containing heat is cold and dry generates the so called “steam fog” we saw over the great lakes in 2014. The inhibition of ice and snow over the Arctic in periods of low radiation can be explained by the lack of differential in energy with its surroundings so water can not release its heat content in order to freeze. Therefore, the atmosphere is not taking the energy required for water to freeze.

Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D.

Therefore, the atmosphere is not taking the energy required for water to freeze because it contains energy already, carried by water vapour introduced from mid latitudes. That is a trend which would explain the lack of mechanisms mentioned in scientific literature linking all the atmospheric events happening all around the globe. At least that is the conclusion from my research.

Commenter 2#

I don’t understand your reasoning regards the “atmosphere taking” heat. Heat simply travels from a region of higher temperatures to lower. At 80 degrees north latitude air temperatures are only above freezing for about 80 days during the summer. For about a hundred days during the winter, air temperatures are 25 to 30 degrees below freezing. The Atlantic water between 100 and 900 meters is much warmer than the air, 2 to 4 degrees above freezing, thus heat is traveling from the ocean to the atmosphere.

Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D.

Temperature is measured through an atmosphere with a molecular composition thermically active. The atmosphere is nitrogen, oxygen, and argon. The molecular composition which absorb and retain radiation affecting climatic regimes and ice cover anomalies are GHGs (CO2) being water vapour the major component as part of a feedback with the other GHGs. Through periods of low radiation (winter) temperature drops enough (as in the Arctic should be) so the molecular composition would be mostly N and O without water vapour since it would freeze. So the atmosphere in itself looses its thermal conductance by drying out. How ever, if there is a forced increment of GHGs, like the increase in water vapour measured in the latest decades, the thermal conductance of the air increases, carrying more energy in circulation by water vapour. Being increased the pool of energy carried at the Arctic decreases the amount of energy which the atmosphere can absorb from the oceans. Water releases energy until it freezes only if it the surrounding medium can take all the energy supplied by the ocean. Otherwise it absorbs energy only up to thermal equilibrium. If this equilibrium is higher than freezing there is no ice.

Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D.

My research points to an increase of the energy pool in the atmosphere carried by water vapour as consequence of transformations induced in the composition and structure of the gaseous, liquid and solid phases of our environment, from increases of CO2 in the gaseous phase, transformations in energy sinks due to land cover management in the solid phase, and alterations over water cycles due to compartmentalization, inland water losses, acidification and pollution. An increase in the energy pool of the atmosphere explains ice loss in the Arctic, ice increase (at the moment) in the Antarctic (differences in land-ocean contrasts with NH), increasing number of events related with strong winds, water downpours and snow fall, heat heat waves and cold displacements moving crossing latitudes instead of having smooth transitions through longitudes.

Commenter 3#

This is an interesting and arresting debate. Please keep exchanging views and thoughts – it is a creative process and you may find some common threads through discussion – or new threads to follow! I got lost early on, but you two can work on this, in spite of differing views.

Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D.

I have to leave the library where I am now. 20:00 UTC+1. Thanks for the feedback.

Commenter 4#

As a lay observer, I can only say that climate scientists have told us that the compounding effects of anthropogenic global warming will be massive and not entirely predictable. The FACT of this loss in ice mass is important all by itself. We can argue about what the knock-on effects might be, and scientists will do that, but let’s remember that the big story is that the ice mass is dwindling and that will alter the planet in major ways. We do know that.

Commenter 2#

But what we dont know is how much of the recent Arctic ice loss is due to an increase in invading warm waters from the Atlantic and Pacific and how much from CO2. First there was a similar loss of ice in the 1920s and 30s and it was associated with ocean oscillations and the transport of warm water and more southerly marine life into the Arctic. Second measurements over ice covered Arctic waters demonstrated a declining trend in air temperatures during the 80s and early 90s.

Commenter 2#

Third the rapid loss of Arctic ice was not due to melting from warm air, but due to a shift in the direction of freezing winds that blew thick ice through the Fram Strrait and out into the Atlantic where it melted. The shift in freezing winds were due to the Arctic Oscillation which appears to be a natural cycle unaffected by CO2 concentrations in modeling studies.

Commenter 5#

There’s no such thing as Arctic Amplification, increased forcing of the climate increases positive NAO/AO, which cools the AMO and Arctic. Arctic sea ice loss is increased this summer because of negative NAO May to August because of weaker indirect solar, and because of the usual post El Nino warm pulse to the AMO. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.data

Commenter 1#

hi Commenter 5#, sorry for the delay in my reply. I think solar activity and ocean sst (and related teleconnections) are strongly related to sea ice fluctuations…but I’m also aware that the human-made climate change is exacerbatig this natural process.

Commenter 5#

higher levels of solar forcing increases positive NAO/AO, and rising greenhouse gases are modeled to do the same. Yet Arctic warming is strictly negative NAO/AO driven. That is why Arctic amplification is bunkum, and why the Arctic warming since the mid 1990’s is due solely to declining solar factors and nothing to do with rising CO2. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-3-5-6.html

Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D.

Concerning my awareness over Arctic amplification please read the following where I explain my exchange of feedback with Jennifer francis on 2014: https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/2015/02/10/revisiting-the-theory-of-facing-a-decrease-in-the-differential-gradients-of-energy-in-atmospheric-circulation-by-diego-fdez-sevilla/

On Solar forcing I have explained my posture to your approach in 2014 at the AGU group https://www.linkedin.com/groups/2196290/2196290-5931346213575102464 and also a month ago www.linkedin.com/hp/update/6186970395367788544.

With what I have already said and everything that I have shared in my blog throughout three years, I believe that there is enough to offer you some sights helping you to find “the answer” you are looking for. Look for the origin driving the behaviour of “wind shear” instead of using wind shear to justify all atmospheric and SST indexes.

Commenter 5#

And your response was.. “I know your thoughts and who knows, may be you are right, I don´t have all the answers”

Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D.

Yep, it is for you to see if there is anything in my research useful for you to apply in yours. As I have explained before, I have looked into ways of incorporating the influence of solar forcing in my line of research and I have seen other major forces which would justify atmospheric dynamics better than solar. Solar pulses of any kind can be comparable with a nuclear detonation in space, and the absence of matter in outpace invalidate transference of pressure or heat. So I conclude that the influence of solar activity is directly dependant on the composition of the atmosphere receiving radiation and I can not apply your approach into my research.

Commenter 5#

the solar wind is particular, i.e. matter. It can warm the thermosphere by 1000°C in a very short time. So you are entirely misinformed. Neither the rise in CO2 or any terrestrial processes can account for the increase in negative North Atlantic Oscillation since the mid 1990’s that has driven AMO and Arctic warming since then.

Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D.

You just need to explain that to the Planet and convince it to behave accordingly in both hemispheres and through the column of the atmosphere. We should be able to measure those thermal oscillations as well as changes in the composition for the ratio C12-C13 and C14. Sure we would also see chemical reactions affecting Ozone in both poles, … May be is not worthy trying to talk me out of my thoughts and try to reach people at NOAA, AGU, NASA, Met Office. They know more than I do, or at least they are officially recognised. I am just a dude with an attitude problem. Solar Forcing in Our Climatic and Atmospheric Dynamics. Location, Location, Location (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) Posted on September 22, 2016 https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/2016/09/22/solar-forcing-in-our-climatic-and-atmospheric-dynamics-location-location-location-by-diego-fdez-sevilla-ph-d/

Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D.

I am fooled in a daily bases due to many of my imperfections. But I don´t allow others telling what to think when thinking is the only thing that I can do by myself. Some people might thank some help here: “The stream of energetic particles warms the thermosphere. Carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxide, coolants in the thermosphere, absorb the energy and then re-radiate heat back into space. A small fraction of the extra heat from the solar flare radiates to layers of the atmosphere below the thermosphere, but it is miniscule compared to the normal amount of heating the lower layers of the atmosphere already experience from incoming visible and ultraviolet sunlight.”

The link to the previous paragraph is the following: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/do-solar-storms-cause-heat-waves-earth

more also here: http://scied.ucar.edu/shortcontent/thermosphere-overview

Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D.

Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D. Since the scientists at NOAA (EEUU) have been blamed of being biased on their reports I leave here a different source of basic information about the atmosphere, its temperature and what it means for heat transference through the atmosphere column http://www.weather-climate.org.uk/02.php

Thermosphere

The thermosphere (literally “heat sphere”) is the outer layer of the atmosphere, separated from the mesosphere by the mesopause. Within the thermosphere temperatures rise continually to well beyond 1000�C. The few molecules that are present in the thermosphere receive extraordinary amounts of energy from the Sun, causing the layer to warm to such high temperatures. Air temperature, however, is a measure of the kinetic energy of air molecules, not of the total energy stored by the air. Therefore, since the air is so thin within the thermosphere, such temperature values are not comparable to those of the troposphere or stratosphere. Although the measured temperature is very hot, the thermosphere would actually feel very cold to us because the total energy of only a few air molecules residing there would not be enough to transfer any appreciable heat to our skin.

Commenter 5#

Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D. If evidence and facts cannot change your mind then there is no hope for you.

Commenter 5#

This link is highly misleading and ignorant, it confuses the heating of the thermosphere from the solar wind with that of the flare. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/do-solar-storms-cause-heat-waves-earth Of course the heatwave of March 2012 was caused by the strong solar wind conditions. I predicted it to begin from around 9/7 March 22012, from many months earlier.

Commenter 5#

typo.. 6/7 March

Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D.

I don’t have all the answers, because I only have the ones I have found. But I don´t have your answers or those of anybody else’s. I would love to have a sustainable way of life made of being part of a team looking for answers. But at the moment, I don´t have such position and I am not even sure if by spending my last 3 years looking into questions and offering my share, is getting me closer to find a job or just distracting me from the more important question of how can I find a sustainable way of life. So I don´t have all the answers to everyone’s questions. Sometimes I don´t agree with the the arguments justifying the relevance of answering some questions, and even I might not give the same level of priority to the same questions as others do. At the end of the day, it is getting difficult for me to be focused on addressing environmental questions while wondering how to pay bills. Here is where linkedin and facebook meet. Sad I know, but this is the professional state of my career.

Commenter 5#

The interplanetary magnetic field influences mid-latitude surface atmospheric pressure http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/045001/pdf

Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D.

There is understanding, knowing and statistics. Understanding physics allows you to take pieces of information supplied by others and make your own. Knowing physics would allow you to know the difference between what happens when you put a chicken egg at the bottom of the ocean, in the surface of the ocean, at the surface of bare soil, at surface of grass, in the air at 10 m above surface, at 700 hPa, at the thermosphere and out space. Statistics will tell you that such thing never happened, is not happening and it will never happen. Yet if you know about those differences you know about physics and how those are related with the behaviour of the Sun and our planet. ”

Commenter 5#

You didn’t know the physics when you said… “Solar pulses of any kind can be comparable with a nuclear detonation in space, and the absence of matter in outpace invalidate transference of pressure or heat.”

Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D.

I can also take some publications which support my claims emphasising the relevance of the composition of the atmosphere over solar activity.

“Mysterious Winds Cause Rapid Melting of Antarctic Ice” published November 15, 2016. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/11/foehn-winds-melt-ice-shelves-antarctic-peninsula-larsen-c/

July 28, 2016 Climbing the Hill of Acknowledgement. Peer reviewed articles supporting previous assessments and research published in this blog. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/2016/07/28/climbing-the-hill-of-acknowledgement-peer-reviewed-articles-supporting-previous-assessments-and-research-published-in-this-blog-by-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd/

Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D.

What ever the sun brings to the planet has a different impact through the atmosphere based on the composition of the atmosphere. That works in altitude, latitude and throughout changes over time.

Commenter 5#

A strong solar influence exists on the NAO/AO at daily to weekly scales. I have been forecasting such scale NAO/AO anomalies from the planetary ordering of solar activity since 2008. You are not in a position to assert what the solar influences are on the basis of your zero research, and with misinformation from NASA.

Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D.

Little you know

Scientists find errors in hypothesis linking solar flares to global temperature April 7, 2010 By Lisa Zyga http://phys.org/news/2010-04-scientists-errors-hypothesis-linking-solar.html

Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D.

I have to give credit to Commenter 5# since it is by confronting different approaches how theories are challenged, and something useful comes out of it.

Not everyone is willing to engage in such challenge having to offer all types of arguments incorporating a diverse range of associations, links and synergies even incorporating a multidisciplinary dissertation which finds coherence in the mechanisms driving the numbers and data analysed connecting different fields.

We both have exposed our arguments, I keep all of mine and Commenter 5# keep his. Now is time for others to look into those and make their own research, adopt their own postures and make their contribution.

Discussion 2

http://www.linkedin.com/hp/update/6205351556603277312

Commenter 1# (same person as Commenter 1# in Discussion 1)

Something incredible is happening in the North Pole this November…

arctic-temperature-nov-2016-at-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

hi Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D. , we can discuss about the origin, destiny and effects of this heat…but one thing is sure: it is impressive!

Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D.

I didn´t want to add a comment in your update because I don´t want to be invasive in others walls. But since you mentioned, yes, I have been following and it is impressive but not a surprise since I have been in my research pointing to this scenario as part of a tendency. I discussed already this situation last year predicting raining at the Artic in Winter (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/dear-sir-diego-fernandez-sevilla-ph-d-) It is difficult for me to make my message through for some reason. What temperature is doing in the Artic is to inhibit the formation of ice instead of being the other way around. Temperature is not dropping despite of the drop in solar radiation, and that is a global assessment. But there is just as much as I can do, and every day without funding or a job, even less. Heat is not transferred into matter. It is matter the one which sucks heat. If matter does not take the heat we call it high albedo. The properties of the matter holding heat is what it is important. Without thermically active matter (no water vapour of GHGs) there is no transference like happens in outspace. With thermically active matter there is transfer up to reaching thermal equilibrium avoiding diffusion

Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D.

It is as simple as looking at how a freezer works. It is not the absence of ice what makes it to cool. It is a system containing a substance which captures heat and takes it away. If you have the freezer sealed it will be dry inside. If it is open you will have frost from the water vapour entering inside.

Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D.

If the amount of air containing water vapour entering heat into the freezer is enough to counteract the heat captured by the cooling system, there is an inhibition of ice to be form and the temperature does not drop enough to freeze since the thermal equilibrium is higher than freezing temperatures.

(c) by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. (17 Dec 2016). Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors. http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Discussion 3

Discussing Climate Under the Radar. Dear “Sir”… (published on Dec 31, 2015)

_______________________________________________

_________Research Scope _______

Some people might like to know some background information about the experience and training that legitimize my analyses. Therefore in the page “About” I have included a section title Interdisciplinary Approach” offering some insights. Contact: d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com

I am aware of that in order to consider any value over such assessments, some people need to see them in a peer reviewed article published in a renown journal, due to the lack of institutional support, I am unable to bring my research into official channels of scientific journalism. Therefore, I expose my assessments in this blog trying to allow anyone to be the reviewer contrasting current developments with my arguments and conclusions, enabling Official Bodies and Established scientists to consider the value of my research despite its informal format. Funding and sponsorship of any size is needed to keep the activity behind the line of research presented. Please consider to make a donation or make your institution to get involved.

The assessments presented in this line of research are not weather reports but interpretations over emerging dynamics, offering arguments and discussion addressing the lack of understanding acknowledged in academia in order to identify mechanisms giving sense to data.

(Cohen et al, 17 AUGUST 2014 DOI:10.1038/NGEO2234 “other studies on related topics, especially other observational studies, share some of the same shortcomings: lack of statistical significance, causality unclear, incomplete mechanistic understanding, and so on”)

Jennifer Francis replied to me in November 2014, “many of your statements had not yet been verified by peer-reviewed research.” What she did not say was that, implicitly in her review, there were no previous peer reviewed publications available to refute my assessments. Which means that my assessments offer unsettled and unprecedented insights applied in science.

Ultimately, under the pressure from developing a line of research without economical or institutional support, and under the absence of peer’s support, the best reviewI can make to validate my assessments has to be throughout the test of time.

For 4 years I have been sharing assessments at weekly basis.

Such agenda has generated a calendar of publications linking assessments over atmospheric dynamics with particular periods of the year. It is my belief that altogether there is a pattern built between all those assessments and periods of time.

After leaving months, even years of time to expose my assessments for public discussion and review, once those have no faced any criticism or arguments refuting their value, I create a pdf file and a DOI publishing them at my profile in Researchgate.

In order to maintain their genuineness and legitimate innovative nature, I keep its original state so those can be compared with any copy made by any third party at any time. For your own references and review over its originality over time with respect to other publications via scientific papers and/or news reports, you can compare the publications at the blog and Researchgate with the records archived:

The conclusions reached after following the arguments presented throughout all the assessments carried out as part of the whole project can be summarised in the following publications (A brief discussion summary is found in a section below):

Climate variability and energy balance. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) At ResearchGate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.33706.11203 November 27, 2013
May 26, 2017 The CO2 Greening Effect Review. CO2 Makes Headlines To Grow Like Trees, Shaping Different Forests Offering Different Views (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.16286.33601
April 19, 2018 Climate, Weather and Energy. Using a Climatic Regime to explain Weather Events by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Researchgate DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.27923.58406

About Peer Review validations please read: July 6, 2016 Research From The Bench (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.))

Research Follow -Up ______________________

In order to maintain the continuity of the process of open review offered over my line of research through my blog, ResearchGate and at LinkedIn, throughout 2016 I have kept re-sharing previous assessments to be contrasted against following real-time ongoing developments.

In the following video you can see an example of the activity associated with this process of exposure and review seeking feedback from members of LinkedIn but also a broader community since the publications are accessed also freely from outside the platform.

In the following page you can look at all the publications exposed at LinkedIn on its original date of publication and also, the times same publications were re-shared in order to test their validity through time. By following the subsequent links you can also access to see the feedback generated.

____Weather, Climate, Energy, Environment and Man ______

April 19, 2018 Climate, Weather and Energy. Using a Climatic Regime to explain Weather Events by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Research DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.27923.58406

The question  driving the whole debate on Climatic Deviations from “a Normal”, or Climatic Drift, focus most of the methodologies on temperature.

However I have followed a different approach in my analyses looking at Gradients of Energy in all its forms. That is why in 2014 I offered my thoughts as a theory of practical applications.

Energy fuels the work done by warm masses of air displacing colder masses of air in their path. That increases mixing patterns generating anomalies in temperature.

Behind an increase in the amount of work carried out by masses of air there is an increase in the energy fuelling such dynamics. Energy can only be transferred, not created or destroyed. So more work means more energy in circulation. More energy in circulation can only be sustained by a substance carrying it. Either if we consider that the energy driving anomalies comes from the Sun or from the Oceansthe carrier has to be in the atmosphere in order for the energy to produce work. And the body loosing heat cools down.

E.g. A corridor of wind over the Arctic is triggered by a conversion of Temperature into work, convection and advection, which are the result of mixing masses of air. As I have published in previous analyses, such Trans-Arctic connection between Atlantic and Pacific Basins is part of a pattern increasing the mixing ratio between masses of air otherwise separated by thermal compartmentalization, like the Polar Jet Stream. An increase in the dispersion of energetic forms have different outcomes, one of which it would be a temporary reduction in the average temperature resultant for the mixing between Cold (Arctic) and warm (Mid-Latitude) masses of air as well as in altitude (SSW).

Subsequently, “temperature” is less reliable than looking at “work” seen even in the “mild” events.

In the framework presented throughout the line of research published in this blog (and researchgate) it has been considered “Climate” as being defined by the amount of energy free to do work. In other words, energy free to promote weather events. Accordingly, in my research I define Climate by the amount and state of energy in circulation, and Weather by the use of this energy.

Consequently, with the definition applied for Climate and Weather, my definition of Climate Drift is:

“the deviation from equilibrium of the conditions allowing the perpetuity of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in a micro and macro ecosystem. This situation can be due to changes in any component of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes can be either a change in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality or rates in the flows of energy pre-established OR/AND the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components/forces and energy sinks or sources in any part of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance.”

In my assessments I have defended that the increase in the energy pool at mid-latitudes would ultimately create an scenario with an overcharged atmosphere. That would reduce the contrasts with which to create and maintain stability in the structure required to condense energy in singular events, like hurricanes. Giving more relevance to the single contrast between Ocean/continental masses. However, the opening of the Arctic circulation through a weak Jet Stream would reduce the pressure in the containment absorbing the condensation of energy at mid-latitudes, expanding into a new volume.

Accordingly, hadley circulation gets affected (see also) generating new patterns of turbulence at the ITCZ as well as it gets influenced Arctic mixing zones with lower latitudes.

In this scenario TCs are generated under an increase in the mixing ratio of an unstable atmospheric circulation dominated by kinetic energy transferred by water vapour thanks to GHGs, and immersed in an overcharged atmosphere with no place where to diffuse its energy, becoming resilient as long as they stay over the ocean. So they endure like a piece of an ice rock in cold water.

About Sea Surface Temperatures, my assessments take SST as subsequent conditions driven by wind shear. So the interaction between masses of air in circulation allows or inhibits SST developments. Once the scenario is built on SST this becomes a “battle field” conditioning the subsequent interaction between the following masses of air and the characteristics of the “grounds” where the game will be played (sort of speak). Like the effect of the ice conditions in an ice hockey match.

El Niño is an event which happens in a very small portion of the Earth, it is related to the temperature of a very thin layer of the Ocean in depth, a small percentage of the area occupied by the whole Oceanic masses, and even smaller when it is integrated in the multidimensional space combining Ocean and atmosphere.

biological-productivity_amazonia-and-atmospheric-circulation-diego-fdezsevilla

It is kind of intriguing to think why it has been so easy to conclude that such small portion of the entire system is driving it as a whole. It is like considering that the flowering of plants drives the seasons. Similarly it could be said about using SST at the Arctic to justify altogether; the lack of ice, warmer temperatures at tropospheric level and even at stratospheric level. There is not enough energy in the SST of such small area as it is the Arctic to justify all those convective dynamics.

(March 22, 2016 Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1968.5521).

Statistical Significance. The Scary Side of Being Mild (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.21934.61767

It can not surprise me enough the fact that there is a scientific agreement followed by theories such the Arctic Amplification and Stephan Boltzmann black body radiation, which focus on single locations as sources of energy triggering warming events. Arctic amplification focus the attention in the Arctic, and the absence of ice decreasing albedo, to justify the location for the source of energy warming the atmosphere in the Sea Surface Waters. And it does it even considering the absence of Solar radiation, which in itself discards any process of albedo absorbing and re-emitting energy. Accordingly with their theory, Arctic amplification suggests that Arctic circulation affects circulation at mid-latitudes, however, all the dynamics we see point in the opposite direction. Mid latitudinal forcing pushes against Arctic restrictions through the Jet Stream, displacing cold masses of air in their path, using water vapour as the carrier of the energy feeding convective motions.

Stephan Boltzmann relation describing radiative gradients of temperature rely entirely on an idealized body homogeneous in composition and even pressure. Such statement neglects the nature of the processes involved in the transference of energy found in the atmosphere where there are simultaneously three states of matter, gaseous, liquid and solid, numerous compounds different in molecular composition and behaviour, as well as an active thermodynamic system made of heterogeneous cells containing independent microsystems of entropy, interacting in a macro system out from equilibrium. (more here). So opposite from a black body, the distribution of radiation and heat across an heterogeneous system delivers an uneven distribution marked by the nature of the connections built between micro and macro systems, ecosystems and abiotic systems, gaseous, liquid, solid and multi-estate systems. It becomes evident that there is not a distribution of temperatures following a gradient defined by Stephan-Boltzmann estimations because the transference of energy is heterogeneous due to the heterogeneous composition and disposition of the matter states in the planetary system. By understanding those limitations we can identify the expansion of energetic pulses throughout the atmosphere by avoiding focusing the attention over the temperatures and instead, focusing the attention into identifying the “work” expressed by the dynamics in motion, either as forms of precipitation, trans-latitudinal transportation of matter (Water Vapour), transference of radiation (SSW), discharges of electricity and displacements of cold and heat waves.

In my research I have been very persistent trying to highlight how much relevance it is given to a small area in size and depth driving global circulation as it is the SST at the Eq Pacific while an area of the same size and even more depth could be identified in the Amazon or by the change suffered in Land cover by agriculture at global scale.

Biological productivity amazonia atmmospheric circulation DiegoFdezSevilla

We have to consider that SST are measured in the 5 or less m of the Ocean meanwhile Forests can occupy more than 15 meters in depth. And both are sources of the latent heat carried out in the atmosphere which fuels convective dynamics dominating intrusions over the Arctic.

Analyses which I published in my line of research some time ago studying the impact from changes in Land cover over atmospheric dynamics:

  • April 23, 2015 Matching Features Between Land Surface and Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20035.30247. https://wp.me/p403AM-xK 
  • June 10, 2016 The Butterfly Effect on Arctic Circulation. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) https://wp.me/p403AM-12H

________ Discussion _______

The analyses performed in my line of research describe a Climatic Drift, from pre-established atmospheric conditions strongly compartmentalised in Altitude and Latitude, towards a Climatic Regime characterised by an instability originated by patterns of Trans-latitudinal and Vertical mixing. An increase in atmospheric motion inducing sudden and extreme changes in atmospheric conditions generating weather events with abnormal properties for a particular location, throughout latitudes, longitudes and altitudes.

Einstein and his developments were mainly applied in physics due to the use that it was made of his work with the aim to manipulate energy in times of conflict, or to understand space. The equation is simple E=mc2. The language of physics has dominated the discussion over physical developments since then and it has been established as the logical translation of climatic developments. However, in the current times, the role of scientific understanding demands to move beyond the barriers of language, either between semantic cultural languages and between disciplines.

Being myself a Biologist involved in Atmospheric dynamics applying physics to explain such a complex subject as it is climatic evolution might seem like the tale of the child claiming that the Emperor has no clothes.

And yet, it seems to me evident that a thermodynamic system as it is our planet, can not scape from the most basic and powerful understanding of our contemporary scientific evolution. If E=MC2, and the anthropogenic activity is increasing the transformation of M into Energy in the system (from burning Mass from fossils and vegetable components, as well as by liberating other forms of energy such as gravimetric in Dams, Solar, transformation of raw materials, etc,) such transformation rate will move the balance in the thermodynamic behaviour of the whole system, and the rate of such deviation from equilibrium will be related with the speed at which the transformation rate between E/M is performed: M>(c)2

________Conclusions_________

The main conclusion from my 4 years of researching synergistic interactions between all transformations seen over the Liquid, Gaseous and solid phases of our global Environment indicates that anthropogenic activity is forcing our environment into A System Becoming Dominated By Free Energy. (Registered at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18509.13289)

 

The biotic component of our environmental system is the only one capable of interacting against thermodynamic entropy, against instability. And for as long as Human activity can not replicate such mechanisms in equilibrium with the resources consumed, it might be time to think about domesticating Human Activities instead of following the obsession for Domesticating Natural Behaviour and Geoengineer our Weather. 

________Overall Conclusions________

An increase in the amount of energy being in “free” state means that kinetic processes will increasingly dominate thermodynamic processes, inducing a transition in our Seasonal and Climatic regimes from being driven by Orbital Positioning to be driven by more erratic Kinetic processes.

Land Use Change through time.

Land use change through time.

Examples of processes releasing ENERGY FROM ANTHROPOGENIC ACTIVITIES

From previous publication “Domesticating Nature” (2015)

Atmospheric Oxygen Levels

Atmospheric Oxygen Levels are Decreasing Oxygen levels are decreasing globally due to fossil-fuel burning. The changes are too small to have an impact on human health, but are of interest to the study of climate change and carbon dioxide. These plots show the atmospheric O2 concentration relative to the level around 1985. The observed downward trend amounts to 19 ‘per meg’ per year. This corresponds to losing 19 O2 molecules out of every 1 million O2 molecules in the atmosphere each year.

Scripps O2 Global Oxygen Measurements The Scripps O2 Program measures changes in atmospheric oxygen levels from air samples collected at stations around the world. This sampling network provides a global and hemispheric perspective on oxygen variability. The Scripps O2 Program is based at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at La Jolla, California and is under the direction of Professor Ralph Keeling.


The Test of Time against Current Dynamics

Throughout the line of research here presented there have been several aspects in the global debate on climatic synergies showing major discrepancies with mainstream scientific coverage. The assessments are about the concept of climate driftthe link between the Polar Vortex and tropospheric circulation, the role played by SST and the ENSO, the dynamics explaining abnormal Arctic Warming and sea ice cover, the concept of global warming vs global cooling and the role played by Anthropogenic transformations. (see full index at the Home page).

Some examples:

Polar Vortex

November 14, 2014 Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2500.0488

Climate Drift

October 21, 2014 (Updated 22/Dec/14) New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4859.3440
February 10, 2015 (UPGRADED 24th March2015) Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. ResearchgateDOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1975.7602/1
Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Drift. Are we there yet? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) July 2, 2015
September 2, 2016 Climate Drift, The True Meaning of Things and the Drift of Those. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.22069.78561
February 6, 2018 Feb 2018. Climate Drifts and The Scientific Method of Waiting 30 Years. Follow up on previous assessments by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18823.09122

Arctic Amplification

November 17, 2016 Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)  DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.24688.35848
December 17, 2016 Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20129.81760
February 28, 2018 Arctic Warming as a Result of Convective Forcing by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD  Pdf at ResearchGate DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.34551.73125

SST and ENSO

December 11, 2015 Could It Be El Niño The New “Wolf” Coming? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.3238.2801
March 22, 2016 Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)  Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1968.5521
June 23, 2017 “Seasonal Outlook. June 2017 (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25428.91528

Between global warming and global cooling there is global mixing.

September 8, 2015 Trans-Arctic circulation between Pacific and Atlantic Basins. A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla).  Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1697.5847
May 26, 2016 Atmospheric Circulation and the Mixing Zone. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34019.04645
July 1, 2016 Atmospheric mixing. Indian Basin June 2016 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.11803.98088
August 26, 2016 Aug 2016 Follow-up on previous assessments. Atmospheric Dynamics, Temperature Displacements, Atmospheric Mixing (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

September 14, 2016 Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.19874.63684
October 13, 2016 Global Mixing in Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.)ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.21255.60320
May 5, 2017 Mixing Dynamics keep shaping A Roller coaster of Temperatures over South Europe. Follow-up on previous research 5th May 17. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.16627.43043
June 9, 2017 “Mixing Dynamics” in the Atmosphere. A follow-up on previous research by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.23548.03209
March 14, 2018 Visualising Wind and Convective Forcing Driving Climatic Dynamics. Follow-up 14 March 2018 by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD  Pdf available at DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34233.06249
April 19, 2018 Climate, Weather and Energy. Using a Climatic Regime to explain Weather Events by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Research DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.27923.58406

Anthropogenic transformations over the structure and composition of the three phases of the environment (Gaseous-Atmosphere, Solid- Land Use and Cover, Liquid-Water bodies) have reduced CxHxOx and increased CxOx+HxOx, CxHx, as well as albedo, … altering the energetic balance in the thermodynamic system which conforms our Climatic regimes.

July 24, 2015 Solar Activity and Human Activity, Settling Their Environmental Liability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36702.33606
March 3, 2017 Thermodynamic Ecosystems by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.32238.10566
May 26, 2017 The CO2 Greening Effect Review. CO2 Makes Headlines To Grow Like Trees, Shaping Different Forests Offering Different Views (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.16286.33601
March 23, 2017 Final Review in Progress. March 2017. From ENSO to Scientific Thinking by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.33915.82726

The Test of Time. Validation by Current Dynamics

From previous publication Seasonal Transitions under a New Climatic Scenario. by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.Posted on 

This year 2018 many of the topics discussed through the line presented show to be supported by conclusions discussed throughout all the analyses presented:

  •  The ENSO is not a driver of convective forcing over the NH,
  • Convective forcing from Mid-latitudinal towards the Arctic circulation has wear off the gradients of temperature generating a strong Polar Jet Stream.
  •  Arctic warming occurs through atmospheric intrusions from Mid Latitudes,
  • The collapse of the Polar Jet Stream has opened Arctic circulation to Mid-Latitudinal circulation intrusions allowing Trans-Arctic circulation between Pacific and Atlantic Basins.
  •  The global Temperature measured is the resultant of mixing patterns in the atmosphere,
  • Therefore an increase in mixing dynamics creates a pause in temperature raise,
  • An increase in mixing dynamics show an increase in convective forcing,
  • Convective forcing is the work resultant from an increase in atmospheric energy being incorporated in free state,
  • The incorporation and spread of energy in free state into the atmosphere is carried and released by water vapour
  • An increase of water vapour in atmospheric circulation requires an increase in the thermal capacity of the atmosphere
  • The process of enhancing the thermal capacity of the atmosphere comes by increasing the concentration of GHGs, conc of aerosols and land surface albedo.
  • Several processes carried out by human activityare linked with the previous assessment: human activity reduces the capacity of the biotic environment to fix energy from free state into inert state by reducing biochemical processing and storage (CxHxOx photosynthesis and biomass) and increases atmospheric concentrations of GHGs by releasing CO2 and H2O into the atmosphere. Also, land use and covertransformations increase albedo, industrial activities increase aerosols and the compartmentalization of water affects water cycles.
  • In a thermodynamic system the energetic pool is the sum of the amount of energy in free statecapable of doing work, and the energy fixed in an inert form as part of mass. The amount of energy in free state is proportional to the amount of energy fixed in inert form as mass (E=mc2). The release of energy from its inert form increases the amount of energy in free state to do work. Energy is not created, neither destroyed. The transformation of the three phases of the environment forced by human activities, gaseous (atmosphere), liquid (water cycle) and solid (land use and cover), increases the amount of energy in free state capable of promoting all forms of work; convective forcing, strong winds, solid and liquid precipitation, lightning, dust storms, heat waves, cold displacements, and ultimately, and increase in atmospheric mixing in altitude and across latitudes.

Current dynamics keep supporting previous conclusions

My activity at LinkedIn is complementary to the line of research published at the blog in order to expose it for an open review. Simultaneously I include publications at ResearchGate generating a DOI as part of the portfolio associated with the line of research.

Those whom are aware of my line of research have seen how between 2014 and 2016 I shared analyses over real time developments in order to validate the hypothesisbehind my conclusions offered in 2013. After 2016 I incorporated the process of validating those against time by re-publishing them in contrast with the developments seen in the following years in order to evaluate its potential representing a pattern. You can see this if you look at my “activity” in my profile at Linkedin or using in this platform the search bar (“Diego Fdez-Sevilla” + “content”). Furthermore, I have included a page in this blog named “public review” with all the links to my activity in LinkedIn so you can become aware of the feedback received for each publication.

Among all the re-shares offered for validation against current dynamics this 2018 some examples are the following:

(Shared the 8th August 2018 at LinkedIN) _______________

Recap March 3, 2017. Thermodynamic ecosystems: “Our climate and natural systems incorporate variability in their behaviour. But the existence of our environment as we know it, comes with a variability within a range of tolerance thresholds. So what we are facing here is the possibility of seeing tolerance thresholds trespassed at various parts of our ecosystem, triggering a chain reaction all over the enclosed system encapsulated by the atmosphere of our planet. The level of graduality in the transition between seasons can alter the stability of biological systems they well might also affect the synergistic feedbacks existent between biological productivity and the thermodynamic atmospheric behaviour. These synergistic feedbacks seem to not be of much part of the research available in the literature. And yet, the stability of an ecosystem, biotic and nonbiotic parts altogether, has to be considered as the result of receiving and absorbing perturbations by all sides, atmosphere, biotope and ecotope. When a region losses the capacity to absorb perturbations and regenerate itself to its previous state, the whole balance between land cover and atmospheric behaviour above it will change. From regional to a global change only takes to have enough regional changes to coalescence.”

(Shared the 2nd August 2018 at LinkedIN) _________________________

“The developments in atmospheric circulation observed at the present time seem to keepsupporting previous assessments not only on the Hadley circulation. Accordingly, the evolution of the atmospheric dynamics addressed throughout the line of research presented highlights the dominance in the directionality of the influence of atmospheric conditions at Mid-Latitude into Arctic circulation. Something which goes opposite to the directionality defended by the Theory of Arctic Amplification. Ultimately, based on the previous research presented, the implications derived from seeing Mid-Latitudinal climatic regimes moving higher in latitude incorporates relevant uncertainties, not only over the developments of atmospheric dynamics, but more importantly, over the development of feedback loops with terrestrial ecosystems. Considering atmospheric and terrestrial interactions conformed by Biotic and non-biotic components and processes, and based on the developments pointed out through the line of research, those synergistic interactions have the potential to develop patterns in environmental evolution which will be sustained only temporally, in a period of transition.”

(Shared the 31st July 2018 at LinkedIN) _______________

There is a prominent difference between doing research to enlarge a personal or institutional curriculum with that of doing research to face a threat. The first is what makes the news and becomes main stream. This difference between pursuing a personal career enhancement or the will to push against limitations and fear, changes the focus of attention and the functionality of the product. Otherwise it is incomprehensible to have arrived at this point of surreal lack of scientific advancement with so many publications and so little answers.

  • Forecasts For Ecosystems (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) ReasearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36832.17925 https://wp.me/p403AM-Vk
  • A roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) (ResearchGate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.27634.20165) https://wp.me/p403AM-z9
  • May 5, 2017 Mixing Dynamics keep shaping A Roller coaster of Temperatures over South Europe. Follow-up on previous research 5th May 17. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.16627.43043 https://wp.me/p403AM-1vi
  • Science, scientists, researchers, policy-makers, and the rest of society. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.16928.89607 https://wp.me/p403AM-3Whashtag#researchhashtag#forecastinghashtag#climatechange

Update on the extreme heat wave for Iberia – confirmed!

severe-weather.eu

(shared the 18 July 2018 at Linkedin) __________________________

“Mixing dynamics in atmospheric circulation through latitudes generates a roller-coaster of temperatures and anomalies.

Energetic pulses from equatorial convecting forcing drives such dynamics enhancing water vapour transport independently from oceanic indexes, giving downpour precipitation and warm vs cold displacement” #japan#sweden #spain #eeuu #india #pakistan #rusia#australia

Some Related Analyses:

  • * SST Anomalies and Heat Waves. Are They Not All Just Heat Displacements? (by D Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) October 16, 2015 https://wp.me/p403AM-EX
  • * New insides on old concepts (by D Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) December 23, 2015 https://wp.me/p403AM-P5
  • * Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by D Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) March 22, 2016 https://wp.me/p403AM-X7
  • * Atmospheric Dynamics. Foreseeable, At The Moment. (by D Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) July 19, 2016 https://wp.me/p403AM-16P
  • * Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by D Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) December 17, 2016 https://wp.me/p403AM-1jd
  • * Convective Forcing Dominates Atmospheric Circulation NH (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Posted on May 23, 2018 https://wp.me/p403AM-1UH

Previous analyses seem to be confirmed by current dynamics observed throughout the year 2018. New insides on old concepts (by D Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) December 23, 2015 https://wp.me/p403AM-P5 See image 15 Aug 2018 Atmospheric Dynamics. Foreseeable, At The Moment. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Posted on July 19, 2016 DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.14079.41127 https://wp.me/p403AM-16P See image 6 Aug 2018

______________________

Shared the 27th July 2018 at Linkedin

Final Review in Progress. March 2017. From ENSO to Scientific Thinking by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.

diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com

Update 1 Aug 2018 over previous assessments:

“This year 2018 many of the topics discussed through the line presented show to be supported by conclusions discussed throughout all the analyses presented

  • *-The ENSO is not a driver of convective forcing over the NH,
  • – Convective forcing from Mid-latitudinal towards the Arctic circulation has wear off the gradients of temperature generating a strong Polar Jet Stream.
  • – Arctic warming occurs through atmospheric intrusions from Mid Latitudes, The collapse of the Polar Jet Stream has opened Arctic circulation to Mid-Latitudinal circulation intrusions allowing Trans-Arctic circulation between Pacific and Atlantic Basins.
  • – The global Temperature measured is the resultant of mixing patterns in the atmosphere,
  • – Therefore an increase in mixing dynamics creates a pause in temperature raise,
  • – An increase in mixing dynamics show an increase in convective forcing,
  • – Convective forcing is the work resultant from an increase in atmospheric energy being incorporated in free state,
  • – The incorporation and spread of energy in free state into the atmosphere is carried and released by water vapour

Related

In “Aerobiology”

 

About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Data policy The products processed by "Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD" are made available to the public for educational and/or scientific purposes, without any fee on the condition that you credit "Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD" as the source. Copyright notice: © Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD 2013-2019 orcid: orcid.org/0000-0001-8685-0206 and the link to its source at diegofdezsevilla.wordpress or permanent DOI found at Reearchgate. Should you write any scientific publication on the results of research activities that use Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD products as input, you shall acknowledge the Diego Fdez-Sevilla's PhD Project in the text of the publication and provide an electronic copy of the publication (d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com). If you wish to use the Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD products in advertising or in any commercial promotion, you shall acknowledge the Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Project and you must submit the layout to Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD for approval beforehand (d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com). The work here presented has no economic or institutional support. Please consider to make a donation to support the means for making sustainable the energy, time and resources required. Also any sponsorship or mentoring interested would be welcome. Intellectual Property This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! For those publications missing at the ResearchGate profile vinculated with this project DOIs can be generated on demand by request at email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com. **Author´s profile: Born in 1974. Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my work previous to 2013 as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After 12 years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, in 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my own line of research. In the current competitive scenario, in order to demonstrate my capacities instead of just moving my cv waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I decided to invest my energy and time in opening my own line of research sharing it in this blog. In March 2017 the budget reserved for this project has ended and its weekly basis time frame discontinued until new forms of economic and/or institutional support are incorporated into the project. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this platform and at LinkedIn has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my achievements and that the Intellectual Property Rights generated with the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in similar lines of research. **Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome as well as any approach exploring professional opportunities.** In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2019, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects, don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access and DOIs found at the Framework and Timeline page and ResearchGate. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2018. Filling in or/and Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/ ***
This entry was posted in Aerobiology, Biological productivity, Energy Balance, Environmental Resilience, Extreme climatic events, Filling in, Influence of Continentality, Polar vortex and Jet Stream, Water vapour and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to Energetic Pulses in Atmospheric Circulation Unsettle Our Climatic Scenarios (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)

  1. Pingback: Arctic Warming as a Result of Convective Forcing by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

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