Solar Forcing in Our Climatic and Atmospheric Dynamics. Location, Location, Location (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)


Solar Forcing in Our Climatic and Atmospheric Dynamics. Location, Location, Location (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)

(updated 23 Sept 2016 11:51 UTC 9:54, Local time (GMT+2) Spain 11:54AM. Reordering of contents, Comments on discussion and added imagery on land cover alterations and energy waste, and video on the motion and relative size of Earth)

Solar forcing is a component which brings many questions in our climatic assessments and synergistic interactions. And wherever it appears, it brings a very much alive discussion.

I have looked at the Solar component  in previous publications creating a category for it. So, based on my work through the line of research published in this blog I will try to condense all my research in one unifying point of view over this particular component.

Previous work published in the present line of research on Solar Activity.

The most relevant work published previously in this blog, specifically addressing the Solar component, can be found in the following links (also comments section for each of them):

As part of this piece I discussed aspects Connecting climate changes with solar variations throughout historical research.

As part of this piece I discussed aspects considering the Sun´s spot activity seen since 2008.

As part of this piece I discussed aspects considering “Solar activity” and “Human transformation” exerting forces upon the global system independently one from another.

As part of this piece I discussed aspects considering the component of “time” and “space” conditioning the impact from Human development and the oscillations considered in atmospheric circulation such as PDO, OA, AMO and Solar activity. In one hand is the time rate at which changes take place. How abrupt are those changes. And in other hand it is space, how many factors coexist in location at the same time.

As part of this piece I discussed aspects considering that what we consider “too small to matter” and “big enough”, are just considerations of our limitations. Many of us doing research over environmental transformations, atmospheric dynamics and climatic drifts are looking at the same images. However, we not all are applying the same perspectives and getting the same interpretations. Could we see different things in a different way by just opening our perspective to new positions as observers?

As part of this piece I discussed aspects considering the interrelation between biotic and none biotic components in the evolution of our ecosystem through time.

As part of this piece I discussed aspects considering the magnitudes required to cause a drift in climatic processes.

On those publications I discussed aspects considering the impact of Human developments in energy flows sustaining and/or creating an environment.

Solar Forcing in Our Climatic and Atmospheric Dynamics. Location, Location, Location

My definition of Climate drift is, the deviation from equilibrium of the conditions allowing the perpetuation of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in a micro and macro ecosystem. This situation can be due to changes in any component of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes can be either a change in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality or rates in the flows of energy pre-established OR/AND the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components/forces and energy sinks or sources in any part of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance.

I understand the resultant climate on any planet as the interaction between elements in the macro and micro scale (planetary aspects, spacial alignments and configurations) as well as the interaction between external and internal forcing and their sources.

It is my believe that through time, those change beyond cycles. Some cycles involved recover to any position in time and some others fail to recover to its original singularly identified configuration.

Some events to repeat require to merge multiple variables in such a way that firstly; the number and type of variables have to be the same number and type in a specific moment in time, but also, with the same magnitude and interact in the same sequence as to replicate a previous scenario in time named part of a cycle.

With the question of time and cycles we are subjected to scales of time restricted by our data sets and capacity to identify sources of forcing and the effect derived from them.

In the question of Solar’s effect over Earth climatic system, I am able to identify the Sun as a source of a force interacting with it. And I reckon that its magnitude makes it the main source of energy fuelling the energy flows sustaining the dynamics involved.

What I am concern is about the state of the dynamic systems which solar activity is fuelling.

I have used the simile of cooking in my assessments previously and I believe that it serves to make a point. The variations in the energy being applied to cook are dominant over what happens in the pot to an extent defined entirely by what you have inside the pot. If you have oil you will fry your food. If you have water or any other GHG you will boil it. If you have dry food or if you have food containing water, …

For the same amount of energy the output changes completely by the molecular composition of the matter transferring the energy being supplied as well as it also depends on the structure of the body absorbing the energy.

From my point of view, Solar activity fails to explain one particularity relevant in the actual state of our climatic dynamics.

Under solar minima we have an increase of temperature anomalies in different locations around the planet including the Arctic.

The magnitude of the Solar influence is always explained having an impact within a Steffan-Boltzmann like stratification. Nowadays, the variations in temperature we see are subjected to zonifications which break the normalized concept of latitude vs Solar angle.

The amount of energy required to bring this thermal energy through locations can only be explained by the composition of the mass of air carrying it and the alteration in the atmospheric dynamics holding a previously stable compartmentalization in latitude and altitude.

In other words, I believe that we are facing an increase in the atmospheric mixing ratio due to a weakening in the stratification previously seen.

This situation might not resemble any previous period since those previous periods had a zonification with the expansion/restriction of cold areas within latitudinal margins. This time, that is not happening.

And I believe that it is related with the state of the “body” being “cooked”.

Through paleo time scales, there has been a significant change in the properties of the body receiving the energy from he Sun, in Albedo, evapotranspiration rates and location, land cover… and configuration of energy flows absorbing, re-emitting, transferring or liberating energy.

I think that the issue here is not the variations in the giving side but in the receiving one.

The Earth is too small to suffer the effect of the Sun in some areas more than in others for the same latitude.

Our data, analyses and imagery are made from conceptualizations which bring many biases, like images which repeatedly show our planet bigger than what it really is:

seasons.nasa

Also, our data analyses are subjected to our own sensory limitations and anthropogenic projections in order to identify patterns. Scientists have been aware of this and the attitude adopted as response has been to rely on building data sets built on time series and create  algorithms to identify patterns. So scientists have become passive surrogates playing the role of monitoring the quality of the data sets being built and the generation of algorithms looking for statistical correlations leaving the working load of thinking to “less humanized” and “limited” methods. All that comes with a huge risk of obviating the obvious when our “methods” do not recognise it. (See more discussion The scope of Environmental Science and scientific thought. From Thought-driven to Data-driven, from Critical Thinking to Data Management. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla))

In a previous publication I discussed the outcome from a new report issued by the National Research Council (NRC), “The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth’s Climate,” (2012) in which it is pointed out that the variations in Solar activity can strongly affect the chemistry and thermal structure of the upper atmosphere.

Following their assessment, it seems to be illogical and lacking coherence to obviate the impact from changes in composition in the atmosphere receiving the effect from Solar activity over the chemistry and thermal structure of the upper atmosphere through the solar cycles.

net-dswrf-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd-sept-2016

3d-net-dswrf-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd-sept-2016

But also, our data analyses are subjected to our own perspective from where we tend to adopt a tunnel vision when applying patterns of though:

The present conditions 22 Sept 2016 of the NH Polar Jet Stream show to keep the wobbly pattern seen in previous years, and it seems to be the new “normal” in today’s atmospheric dynamics.

Under a period of minima solar activity we should expect to have colder conditions at the Poles. Under such scenario, the contrast in temperature between record temperatures at Mid-Latitudes, and colder than normal Polar masses of air, would increase, generating a stronger Polar Jet Stream. However, what we see is that the conditions in the Arctic circulation, under a solar minima, are not cold enough to generate such contrast so strong to hold rigid the position of the Jet Stream.

gfs-nh-polar-jet-stream-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd-22-sept-init

Such heterogeneous distribution in the atmospheric distribution of cold and warm masses of air follow principles described by thermodynamic laws driving thermal transference dependent on the composition of the fluid absorbing, holding and releasing the energy received. All that has been discussed in previous publications like the following:

All the mechanisms explaining the current atmospheric dynamics and the implications derived from them, for ecosystems and weather behaviour, have been also discussed previously in this blog in different publications.

And my conclusion is that there is an interference from human activities creating a Climate drift since those activities change the composition of the phases part of the environment,

  • solid (land cover through albedo and changes in evapotranspiration rates due to biotic disruptions on wild distributions),
  • the liquid phase through alterations over the water cycles, distribution of water bodies, and humidity of soils as well as affecting circulation patterns due to coastal deterioration and deformation, but also, indirectly due to alterations in the composition of the inert and biotic matter in the Oceans due to pollution and modifications in acidification and salinity related with atmospheric composition and thermal properties.
  • and gaseous phase due to alterations in the composition of the atmosphere due to GHGs as well as aerosols, altogether affecting its thermodynamic behaviour.

The deviation from equilibrium of those conditions disrupt the perpetuation of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in the micro and macro ecosystem.

Solar activity anthropogenic change by Diego FdezSevillaThis situation is due to changes in all components of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes show to be combining effect from changes in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality and rates in the flows of energy pre-established as the consequence of the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components, forces and sources of energy in all parts of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance, as much as by the annihilation of previously established sinks of energy as the only natural resource against perturbation in the energy flows.

Land use change Compilation by Diego FdezSevilla Publication Domesticating Nature

Land use change through time.

waste-us-energy-usage-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

Energy Waste in EEUU

 

The whole picture

All the publications in this blog address those issues creating an image made by combining all pieces which they represent. Since I am not a member of an institution I can not publish them in peer review journals so I use this opportunity to share my work and seek open and public review. Any feedback is also welcome at my email: d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com

Also, a fellow blogger has published a piece on this debate covering this aspect, and I believe that it is worthy to read it if you want to see more  points of view:

“Impact of the ~ 2400 yr solar cycle on climate and human societies” by Javier at “Climate etc” hosted by Judith Curry. Link here.

I don´t want to push my research from my blog into other’s walls and groups in other platforms like LinkedIn, so I share it here and you choose what to do with it. If you want my participation elsewhere please point me out the location.

Some relevant publications in my line of research are the following, but all publications in chronological order can be found at the category Framework and timeline:


______________________________________

Since the principles behind my approach has not been verified by previous peer reviewed research The aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. So any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time of at least a month from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found refuting the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.

In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will help me in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.

PerspectiveSince October 2013 I have been publishing pieces of research studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.

Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License,  WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.

More assessments presenting chronologically the line of research published in this blog can be accessed in the category Framework and Timeline.

For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out):

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About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Citing This Site "Title", published online "Month"+"Year", retrieved on "Month""Day", "Year" from http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my previous work as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After couple of years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, I find myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my research. In the present competitive scenario, instead of just moving my cv and wait for my next opportunity to arrive, I have decided to invest also my energy and time in opening my own line of research showing what I am capable of. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this blog has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my work and the intellectual rights represented by the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in this line of research. Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome. In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2017, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2016. Filling in or Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/
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21 Responses to Solar Forcing in Our Climatic and Atmospheric Dynamics. Location, Location, Location (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)

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