Persistent Mixing Dynamics in Atmospheric Circulation Generates a Seasonal Transition Marked by Kinetic Processes, Exothermic in Nature (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)


Persistent Mixing Dynamics in Atmospheric Circulation Generates a Seasonal Transition Marked by Kinetic Processes, Exothermic in Nature (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)

A colleague from LinkedIn (thanks Richard H. Huber ) has called my attention over a forecast predicting a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) for the 25 of Dec 2018 and I want to share my answer as an exercise of applying my research on current dynamics. First I share the brief answer that I offered which for those aware of my research I believe it contains all major references needed. Following I will extend the discussion using some references and excerpts from among some previous analyses. See full index at the Home page:

“A major stratospheric warming is becoming very probable. For 10 days in advance, forecasts from #GFS and #ECMWF models are nearly identical. For 25 December, GFS shows the breakdown of the polar vortex and a temperature of 10°C in (66°C warmer than normal) in 30 km height.”

Thanks Richard. If you find this situation to be related with my analyses please feel free to share your thoughts privately or publicly. I appreciate any opinion about my work. And also, for those whom do not know my work, or have doubts about it, any opinion about my assessments beside myself will always be contemplated with more receptive eyes.

If you ask me about my interpretation of this SSW, based on my research things are happening earlier than previous years. I wrote about it in 2017. I believe that it is part of the change in forcing from Orbital seasonality into kinetic seasonality (there are various analyses about it in my line of research) and the present SSW configuration is just a repetition of previous ones but earlier in time:

*- Polar Vortex, Old News, Same News? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Posted on February 4, 2016. https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/2016/02/04/polar-vortex-old-news-same-news-by-diego-fdez-sevilla/

Similar situation I would say about the current mismatch between the ENSO and atmospheric dynamics:

*- Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Posted on March 22, 2016   https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/2016/03/22/pacific-atmospheric-dynamics-with-and-without-a-positive-enso-by-diego-fdez-sevilla/

Share your thoughts.

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“Persistent Mixing Dynamics in Atmospheric Circulation Generates a Seasonal Transition Marked by Kinetic Processes, Exothermic in Nature (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)Registered with DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.29966.20804

By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. orcid.org/0000-0001-8685-0206 CV english and español. Resume. Interdisciplinary Skills applied in the line of research presented.- Index for all analyses published. – Shares and Feedback at LinkedIn.

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.

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(I believe that this publication it contains enough original material from my line of research to be relevant and to offer and example of its functionality. Anyone can complete the gaps by following links through the body, and comparing my analyses with different sources of data. Any feedback is welcome, but keep in mind that this is a line of research developed without institutional support or funding.) Please check also the links to the pdf files stored at my profile in Researchgate with DOIs so you can verify their originality, timing for those analyses and their validity through time. Also you have the page public review to see the feedback received from members at LinkedIn for all publications. If links do not work visit my profile and activity)

This is a line of research developed without institutional support or funding, working from the local library. My ivory tower.

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Index

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RESEARCH FRAMEWORK

INTERPRETATION AND RESEARCH FOLLOW-UP

  1. IMAGERY CONTRASTING PAST AND CURRENT RELEVANT ATMOSPHERIC PATTERNS AND CLIMATIC DYNAMICS

1.1.        Repeating Patterns

1.1.1.     Vertical Cross Section of Geopotential Height Anomalies

1.1.2     Old News, same News? Repeated patterns over Europe

1.1.3    Repeated patterns over North America

1.1.4     Repeated patterns GLOBAL

1.1.5        A “Juno” like event happening earlier than expected

1.2.        Mixing Dynamics over the Atlantic Basin

1.3.        Mid-Latitudinal Convective Forcing

  1. DISCUSSION and SOME RELATED ANALYSES CARRIED OUT with EXCERPTS FROM THOSE:

2.1.        THINGS HAPPENING EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS YEARS.

  • “Mixing dynamics” in the atmosphere. A follow-up on previous research by diego fdez-sevilla, phd. Pdf at researchgate doi: 10.13140/rg.2.2.23548.03209) posted on june 9, 2017

2.2.        FROM ORBITAL SEASONALITY INTO KINETIC SEASONALITY

2.3.        THE PRESENT SSW CONFIGURATION IS JUST A REPETITION OF PREVIOUS ONES BUT EARLIER IN TIME

2.4.        KINETIC PROCESSES, EXOTHERMIC IN NATURE

2.5.        TIPPING POINTS

  1. 2018 RELEVANT EVENTS

3.1.        ABOUT THE CURRENT MISMATCH BETWEEN THE ENSO AND ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS:

3.2.        ABOUT CONVECTIVE FORCING STRENGTHENING AT THE NH

  1. ENERGETIC DYNAMICS AND CLIMATE MODELLING
  1. OVERALL CONCLUSIONS REACHED THROUGHOUT PREVIOUS ANALYSES

5.1.        2013-2018 OVERALL CONCLUSIONS

5.2.        2018 DEVELOPMENTS VALIDATING OVERALL CONCLUSIONS

5.3.        CONCLUSIONS ON: WEATHER, CLIMATE, ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND MAN

  1. RESEARCH TIMELINE

6.1.        PUBLIC REVIEW

6.2.        A SEASONAL CALENDAR

6.3.        IMAGERY AND METHODOLOGY

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Research Framework

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Research Framework.

Since 2002 I have performed research over the Atmospheric Dynamics interacting with the biota in the field of Aerobiology (PhD studying atmospheric conditions affecting the efficiency of pollen sampling and the aerodynamic behaviour of pollen. Conclusions here. Article on anthropogenic forcing over plants performance here).

In Oct 2013 I focused my attention over climatic dynamics.

In  AUGUST 2014, Cohen et al, published a review over the state of knowledge on Climatic Assessments: “Review Article: Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather.” Nature Geoscience volume 7, pages 627–637 (2014) (DOI:10.1038/NGEO2234).

“The theory that Arctic amplification is resulting in a slower zonal jet, increased meridional flow, amplified waves and more persistent extreme weather has received a lot of attention from the media, policymakers and climate scientists. In part due to the high profile, this hypothesis has been scrutinized in the scientific literature more extensively than other hypotheses linking Arctic climate change to mid-latitude weather. However, it is worth noting that other studies on related topics, especially other studies on related topics, especially other observational studies, share some of the same shortcomings: lack of statistical significance, causality unclear, incomplete mechanistic understanding, and so on”.

Based on my analyses, in Oct 2014 I published what I believe to be a valid theory explaining current developments in atmospheric dynamics. I shared my thoughts at my blog and several groups in LinkedIn (like the AGU, NASA and NOA groups) where the immense response offered has been silence.

October 21, 2014 New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4859.3440

The theory that I have developed follows “in alignment” with the work published previously by scientists  Judah CohenMasato Mori, Colin Summerhayes, Coumou and Ted Shepherd. Their work supported the theory of that early snowfall over Asia increases albedo leading to heat retention in the atmosphere provoking Arctic ice to melt. Their approach point to decreasing snow cover as the cause diminishing albedo enhancing heat absorption. Ultimately, their approach theorize that such enhanced capacity of the Arctic to absorb heat would lead to “amplify” atmospheric heat absorption already being fuelled with GHGs. And therefore, such increase in atmospheric temperature would reduce the thermal contrast required for a strong jet stream and consequently originating disturbance in atmospheric weather patterns associated.

What I propose with my hypothesis is that the so called “Arctic Amplification” is a synchronic consequence altogether with other environmental phenomena (ENSO, NAO, etc…) and not the trigger. I defend that “Artic Amplification” is a symptom and not a causation of atmospheric dynamics. Arctic circulation does not amplify a process but on the contrary, it reflects the consequence of absorbing the influence from mid-latitude conditions. (updates can be found in the category polar vortex and jet stream. 26/04/2016)

What I am trying to highlight in my theory are the possible mechanisms which would explain: changes in albedo which support the concept of “Arctic Amplification”, early snowfalls in central Asia, Arctic ice cover meltdown and oceanic increases in salinity and ultimately, the origin of atmospheric blocking patterns and a slow down or “pause” in T raise, unified in single principle: Increasing conc. of CO2 and water vapour induce a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation.


In December 2014 I sent several emails asking for feedback. The 17th of December 2014, Jennifer Francis sent her answer to me (full email exchange here):

“The topic you’ve written about is extremely complicated and many of your statements have not yet been verified by peer-reviewed research. It is an exciting and active new direction in research, though, so I encourage you to pursue it. To get funding or a job in this field, however, will require a deeper understanding of the state of the research, knowledge of atmospheric dynamics (not just suggestive examples and anecdotal evidence), and statements supported by published (or your own) analysis.”

On December 24, 2014, I sent her my reply, which represents the final one since there has not been further communication:

“I just want to thank you for giving me a chance and read my ideas. What I wrote was after reading that Cohen proposed that early snowfall over Asia increases albedo leading to heat retention in the atmosphere provoking Arctic ice to melt and create heat absorption leading to jet stream weakening due to Arctic Amplification in atm heat absorption. I believe that all of that is a consequence and not the trigger. That is a symptom and not the cause. My theory tries to find common ground to explain the cause leading to Arctic amplification, blocking patterns associated to deep cyclonic events, a pause in atmospheric T raise, increase in kinetic energy dispersed over the whole hemisphere, water flash floods, as well as frequent  trans-equatorial circulation between hemispheres at jet stream level. I will try to find data to support my theory and I am open to reconsider all my assumptions. That’s why I really appreciate your input.”

In Feb 2015 I published a revision and since then, a constant follow-up throughout more than 230 assessments.

The assessments presented in this line of research are not weather reports but interpretations over emerging dynamics, offering arguments and discussion addressing the gaps of knowledge found in academia in order to identify mechanisms giving sense to data.

In the analyses presented I offer points of view unifying in a single argument the behaviour of drivers such as ENSO, Arctic Amplification and Polar Vortex configuration.

That is, an increase in the atmospheric energetic pool in the form of free state is fuelling a mixing dynamic (Convective motion) responsible for creating fluctuations in temperature patterns, and yet, denoting a constant increase in kinetic displayments. Water vapour acts as the carrier of energy incorporating it over the whole atmosphere and into Arctic latitudes

  • increasing the energy pool at the Arctic
  • increasing Arctic temperature and processes of SSW affecting the POLAR Vortex configuration. 
  • affecting the resilience shown by Lows and Highs to dissipate their energy at lower latitudes and
  • affecting developments at the ITCZ zone and equatorial wind shear at the Eq. Pacific.

A pattern of change in global mixing.

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Interpretation and Research Follow-Up

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Imagery

Atmospheric Patterns and Climatic Dynamics

11 Dec 2018

Update 22-25 December 2018 SSW, ENSO, 500Geo 850Temp & Daily mean temperatures for the Arctic area north of the 80th northern parallel, plotted with daily climate values calculated from the period 1958-2002.

Repeating Patterns

  • Vertical Cross Section of Geopotential Height Anomalies. The daily geopotential height anomalies at 17 pressure levels are shown for the previous 120 days as indicated, and they are normalized by standard deviation using 1979-2000 base period. The anomalies are calculated by subtracting 1979-2000 daily climatology, and then averaged over the polar cap poleward of 65°N. The blue (red) colors represent a strong (weak) polar vortex. The black solid lines show the zero anomalies. Compare with previous assessment: February 4, 2016 (updated 11-18 Feb2016) Polar Vortex, Old News, Same News? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25779.12328

Aug – Nov 2018                                                                          Oct 2017- Feb 2018

  • Old News, same News?

European weather. Old News, Same News? by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. Posted on

We have already seen some similarities from this winter 2015/16 with the floods and strong winds occurred in the winter 2013/14 (see here). So, how far apart will be this winter 2015/16 from last winter 2014/15?

Based on the events and the atmospheric conditions found in the Winter 2014/15  I discussed their significance in the following post:

Extreme climatic events in the North Hemisphere outside the EEUU. News from Spain February 2015 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.21713.02406

So far the chain of events happening this year are following a common pattern with what we saw last two winters. First, downpours and strong winds, next, flooding, and after, periods of cold temp and snow. And everything shares a key point. They are “concentrated” in time, location and quantity. Also, pressure systems are developing moving across latitudes more frequently than the longitudinal patterns associated with the traditional belts associated with Hadley cells in global circulation. In Nov 2014 I purposed a theory which could explain such behaviour but its validity relies on seeing the associated events evolving accordingly.

At the current time, the atmospheric conditions we face over the western Europe share some similarities with what we saw last year due to a blocking system over the Eastern Atlantic basin inducing the Polar Jet stream to bend. Accordingly a warm mass of air moves northward over the Atlantic and a polar front moves southward, into the European continent.  This is how it looks at Feb 2015, 15th January 2016. (AND 10th Dec 2018).

2018 About A Juno like event happening earlier than expected:

From my participation at LinkedIn commented in a thread by Larry Cosgrove on 5 Oct 2018 https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6453602745730498560:

(5th October 2018) I would not be surprised to see a “Juno” “Jonas” like event in the near future.

The Juno Jonas like events I call are what under my point of view show to be lows triggered by throughs originated over the north pacific moving across the north American continent, colliding with a wet current from the gulf of mexico. This pattern seems to be associated with seasonal transitions, which I expect to be earlier than previous years. 

On January 2015 last year I analysed and published my take over the formation of a storm over the Eastern side of USA which you might remember, the storm Juno (http://wp.me/p403AM-rX).

The pattern shown last year by the formation of the storm Juno seems to repeat this year also. Now, 20th Jan 2016, I believe that the present situation resembles same atmospheric configuration, following the same conditions, steps and location to as 24-25-26 Jan 2015, previous Juno, raising way high the probabilities to see another “Juno” in this 2016 Jan 22-24 and even just few days after on Jan 27-28.

(23rd Nov 2018) I am sorry I can not be full time updated on atmospheric developments due to the lack on funding over my activity so I missed the opportunity to link this thread with the storm occurred the 16 Nov 2018. That configuration leading to the storm over Washington is what I was talking about. Based on my previous analyses this year things are happening earlier. Configurations and dynamics seen to happen between December and February have already happened and are happening, including the weak state of the Polar Vortex.

Repeated patterns over North America

North American Weather. Old News, Same News? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Posted on

Photos: Massive winter storm causes travel disruptions throughout eastern US.By Amanda Schmidt, AccuWeather staff writer.November 17, 2018, 1:07:41 PM EST

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/photos-unusual-november-snowstorm-clobbers-northeast-gridlock-traffic-creates-maze-of-new-york-city-streets-bridges/70006643

Mixing Dynamics over the Atlantic Basin

(September 14, 2016) Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)  Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.19874.63684

… The satellite images from Eumetsat allow us to see the motion of the masses of air and their temperature moving over Europe replicating the same similar pattern seen and discussed through this blog in the recent years.

13 Sept 2016                                                                13 Dec 2018

drops-of-weather-sept-2016-diegto-fdez-sevilla-phd  

This pattern “carries” warm air towards high latitudes, being incorporated into Arctic circulation, and “pushes” cold air out of its way coming into lower latitudes. …

May 26, 2016 Atmospheric Circulation and the Mixing Zone. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34019.04645

Eumetsat Natural Colour Diego FdezSevilla

Polar displacements derived from mid-latitude intrusions on the 8th January and 17th February 2016

2nd Sept 2018                                                              12 Dec 2018

 

Mid-Latitudinal Convective Forcing

Feb 2017. Polar Jet Stream and Atmospheric Dynamics. Follow-up over Past and Present Conditions (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Posted on  DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36764.28802

Through the winter 2017 we have seen already a warm event at the stratospheric Polar VortexVariations in temperature over the North Hemisphere divided longitudinally instead of latitudinallyIntrusions of warm mid-latitudinal masses of air getting into the Arctic And the Polar Jet Stream bending to an extent that it has connected the warm mid latitudinal masses of air with Arctic circulation.

jet-stream-2-feb-2017-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

2nd February 2017. Wind conditions at 250 hPa, Jet Stream level.

polar-jet-stream-9-feb-2017-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd-m

9 February 2017. Wind conditions at 250 hPa, Jet Stream level.

12 Dec 2018 ECMWF 500 hPa Geopotential 500 hPa and temperature at 850 hPa

12 Dec 2018 ECMWF 500 hPa Geopotential 500 hPa and temperature at 850 hPa sd

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Discussion

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Things happening earlier than previous years.

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Based on my research, my interpretation of this SSW is that it is part of a change in atmospheric dynamics where things are happening earlier than previous years. A transition through a tipping point which based on the agenda generated by the analyses presented in this line of research since 2013, it has started in 2017 and it was already mentioned in the publication:

“Mixing Dynamics” in the Atmosphere. A follow-up on previous research by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.  Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.23548.03209Posted on 

(Here is an excerpt from the publication. Follow link at title to see in full).

This year 2017 many weather events linked to thermodynamic dynamics are happening earlier than it would be expected. The body of work contained in my line of research is designed to face the test of time and exposure to criticism. And therefore, I want to share previous assessments linking weather events and thermodynamic patterns in order to assess their endurance through time in contrast with the current events.

IN particular for this publication I would offer for review the conditions at the Indian basin in relation with atmospheric dynamics seen in the past. Bellow that, I also share other publications, which I have addressed at Linkedin, linking previous weather events and atmospheric dynamics seen through 2017 and throughout the line of research presented in this blog.

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From Orbital seasonality into Kinetic Seasonality

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I believe that the alteration observed in atmospheric dynamics are part of the change in forcing, from Orbital seasonality into Kinetic Seasonality (see following discussions)

Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20129.81760 Posted on December 17, 2016

(Here is an excerpt from the publication. Follow link at title to see in full).

… Being CO2 a molecular element enhancing atmospheric thermal conductance, and aerosols acting as droplet nuclei in cloud formation, their combined effect altogether with alterations in the water cycles and energy flows due to anthropogenic activity would increase the capacity for the atmosphere to absorb, contain and disperse water vapour. But more importantly, this water vapour would incorporate an increase of energy into the atmospheric pool which it would affect atmospheric developments such as the strength, paths  and life periods of lows and highs as much as those events concentrating energetic discharges in form of precipitation, wind and heat or cold waves.

The outcome from such assessment foresees an spreading of energy through the atmosphere in Latitude and Altitude, driving a climatic drift which wilaffect life cycles in animals and plants as well as in soil degradation and water availability.

The assessments presented through the series of publications shared in the line of research published in this blog apply a point of view which considers an order of factors driven by thermodynamical principles. As the process followed in the order of the steps taken to cook the recipe to make an environment.

All these assessments foresee a change in the progression of Seasonality from Orbital Driven to Kinetic driven, considering kinetic an expression of the energy being driving the seasonal climatic regimes around the latitudes and longitudes. (see March 3, 2016. Seasonality Spring 2016. Continuous follow-up on my previous research assessing atmospheric dynamics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Pdf at Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2833.8968)

Even though many scientists might look into the same events and parameters, not all of us are making the same assessments over the meaning behind those, and the conclusions which can be reached from our observation and analysis.

In particular there have been four assessments showing major discrepancies between the line of research presented here and main stream scientific coverage. The assessments are about the concept of climate driftthe link between the Polar Vortex and tropospheric circulation, the role played by the ENSO and the dynamics explaining abnormal Arctic Warming and sea ice cover.

Arctic Amplification focus the attention over the measurements showing the Arctic is warming faster than other latitudes in the planet. And then, scientists are looking for mechanisms driving this dynamic.

One main concept has been constant since the beginning of my assessments. Energy is getting spread in latitude, longitude and altitude due to the incorporation of GHGs which enhance atmospheric thermal resilience (absorbs and maintain temperature) inducing increases in Water vapour content which increases energy conductance (gravimetric, thermal and kinetic). The implications derived from such assessment have covered publications in this blog addressing all parts of the ecosystem and the weather events associated. From plant growth and displacements, soil degradation, weather patterns, ocean circulation and polar ice cover to energy demands.

Based on my research we are way beyond the first of many tipping points. We are actually going through stages like cyclists or like water going through the stages from solid ice to steam. And it is being a weathering process.

First the conditions of thermal capacity for energy absorption increases. Energy storing begins at the part of the atmosphere receiving the highest volume of energy: Equatorial and mid latitudes. Such process starts without an increase in temperature as the volume can transfer heat into variations in volume. Then the kinetic energy is not balanced by the work delivered so there is an increase in temperature. Such increase enhance the power of the atmosphere to expand its limits into the nearest compartment. Mid latitudes have such a strong friction with high latitudes that the barrier separating Arctic circulation from Mid Latitudes begins to wear off its strength becoming wobbly in altitude and latitude. Like releasing the tension in a guitar string. Such wobbly behaviour allows mid-latitudinal masses of air to invade a new compartment. The Arctic circulation.

Such increase in the volume of space to be occupied by the energetic overloaded mid latitudinal masses of air increases the amount of kinetic energy which can be converted in work expanding its volume. Such conversion creates a pause in temperature increase. However, like a pressure cooker when releases vapour pressure from inside, the temperature stops from increasing but it does not decrease. And at the same time, the system now can accommodate more energy in an expanded volume of space. The energy pool keeps increasing and it becomes evident in the different forms of extreme discharges we see for all different forms of energy, from gravimetric energy by the volume of water and precipitations, kinetic in the form of windy events, tornadoes, etc… as well as heat waves and cold displacements triggered from intrusions of warm air into the Arctic volume.

Simultaneously with horizontal movements, the expansion of the energetically charged mass of air from mid-latitudes starts to interact in the vertical profile of the atmosphere. Such movement, enhanced by the Coriolis effect, pushes warm intrusions into Polar latitudes while raising at higher altitudes, disturbing the lower part of the polar vortex and promoting processes of Sudden Stratospheric Warming.

Since the viscosity of air is lower for cold air than warm air, the incorporation of kinetic energy into higher altitude, carried by the mid-latitudinal warm air masses, increases the energy being dispersed and weakens the organization of those features built on thermla contrasts. Consequently, the stability of atmospheric features like the Polar Jet Sream and the Polar Vortex, suffer from a decrease in the require resilience of the air masses to keep their momentum and directionality, same as streamlines get altered by a source of heat. As we can see when we observe images wobbling over warm tarmac.

The Arctic is warming faster than other latitudes in the planet, like when you pour water into a glass continuously, there will be a moment in which the amount of water will start increasing faster outside the glass than inside.

Equatorial and Mid latitudes have already taken what they can from Kinetic energy. This volume is overloaded and it is expanding to higher latitudes and longitudes. This has increased the mixing ratio between parts of the atmosphere otherwise compartmentalised through thermal contrasts.

The implications from such considerations have been discussed in previous publications such as (see publication in full following the link)…

Q&A by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. (brief excerpt from a longer discussion over 3 threads you can see full following link at title)

In my actual circumstance as independent researcher, I don´t have the resources to participate and assist personally to conferences abroad. However, I do try to promote and get involved in any discussion or debate which challenge my ideas and assessments in order to verify their integrity and coherence.

In particular I addressed the situation over the Arctic in November 2016 in some discussions at the platform LinkedIn which I share as follows (see full conversations reading the publication in full by following the link at the title):

Commenter 1#

Hi Diego, I think the logical steps are: 1) large areas of Arctic ocean usually cover by ice in the Summer are, in the last 10 summers, almost always ice-free 2) this big surface of ocean absorbs heat during the Summer and early Autumn season 3) during the re-freeze season (late september-mid november) these areas release into the Atmosphere over North Pole an impressive amount of heat that weakens the polar vortex 4) the weakness of the polar vortex facilitates the northward movement of warm air masses from the mid-latitutes that contribute to weaken further the polar vortex This is my thought

Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D.

Thanks. I was writing about it to publish a more extended point in the blog. But in short, what I am trying to highlight is the fact that the Arctic is a half full/half empty scenario. But we have to remember that cold is the absence of heat. The process of thinking you describe assumes that Arctic Amplification comes from an increase of heat being released in the Arctic. I disagree with that. The thermal energy accumulated through summer in the Arctic can not be transferred into the atmosphere if this atmosphere is Arctic Dry Air as it used to be. The heat contained by Arctic masses of air comes with the air mass in itself due to the moisture carried from Mid Laitudes. Since there is thermal heat within the mass of air, the heat absorbed by the Arctic can not transfer it to the atmosphere and freeze in the process.

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March 3, 2016. Seasonality Spring 2016. Continuous follow-up on my previous research assessing atmospheric dynamics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Pdf at Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2833.8968

One repeated feature in atmospheric dynamics which I have observed since the beginning of my research in 2013 is the frequent intrusion of masses of air trespassing from both sides the barrier which should represent the Polar Jet Stream.

It is becoming a frequent scenario to see the displacement of cold air from the Arctic due to convective forcing from warmer masses of air getting into high latitudes and altitudes. The consequence from such dynamics is the alteration in the form, length and transition between seasons.


Based on previous assessments since 2013, I believe that the influence of the ENSO during the year 2015 only emphasise already existent patterns being developed in the atmosphere. And these events of cold masses of air crossing latitudes might be prolonged in time through spring.

As I said in a previous publication on the Polar Vortex 2016, if you want to predict winter weather it might become useful to take a lava lamp and use it as a crystal ball to make predictions.

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(September 14, 2016) Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)  Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.19874.63684

Excerpt from the publication:

… The satellite images from Eumetsat allow us to see the motion of the masses of air and their temperature moving over Europe replicating the same similar pattern seen and discussed through this blog in the recent years.

drops-of-weather-sept-2016-diegto-fdez-sevilla-phd

This pattern “carries” warm air towards high latitudes, being incorporated into Arctic circulation, and “pushes” cold air out of its way coming into lower latitudes. …

Discussion

Based on what it has been discussed in previous assessments over recent atmospheric developments the mixing ratio is increasing and, even though I believe that it is not going to follow the same pattern through time, at the moment, it seems foreseeable.

In a previous publications in this blog I pointed out already that it is time to be vigilant about seeing similarities on what is happening in recent years. Not based on waiting for big magnitudes to be measured behind things happening but also based on which magnitudes have to be in place in order for things to not happen as well as the mere existence of “mild” features and patterns repeating in time and location. …

All the small things

All the small things which are happening under the radar of major scientific attention is playing a role in a game which involves the atmospheric circulation at global scale. Not only this pattern “carries” warm air towards high latitudes, but also into higher altitudes. As a result we see how warm masses of air are “pushing” masses of cold air out of its way, coming into lower latitudes and altitudes. I discussed such mechanism in the publication Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) 2014/11/14 and also … (see publication in full following the link at the title)

… 

Global Hemispheric Inter-Arctic Connectivity

All the patterns observed and discussed through the publications shared over the period of three years point to a interconnection between Atlantic and Pacific basins through the Arctic thanks to the wobbly Polar Jet Stream. Such mechanism generates synchronism between weather events seeing over both basins. Such eventuality was already discussed over previous publications and shows to keep happening through 2016. See following imagery from selected publications and read in full by following the links at the titles:

(Excerpt from the publication) I believe that the present weather events, altogether with the tornado seen in Venice on July, represent some of the new “Drops of Weather” coming over to say that the Summer, as we know it, is coming to an end.

The reason behind it seems to be the sporadic and unpredictable behaviour of the Jet stream, which not only is wobbly in latitude, but also in the vertical profile of the atmosphere. Accordingly, we can see that when it comes to lower levels from 300hPa induces alterations in the thermodynamical behaviour of the tropospheric circulation. In turn, when this cold air touches the lower level of our atmosphere, activates the energy accumulated in the Water vapour contained in it as latent heat, delivering new forms of energy; kinetic provoking strong winds, electrostatic generating lightnings and potential carried in the mass of all the water coming from its gaseous state into liquid or solid precipitation.

I have already discussed what is my theory about what it is happening that it is generating such a wobbly jet stream in latitude and altitude. This theory was published in a previous post and it points out the incorporation of masses of water vapour into polar latitudes as consequence of CO2 forcing as the cause wearing out the strength of the Polar Jet Stream.

I also have suggested that such incorporation of masses of water vapour into Polar Latitudes follow channels which are linked with persistent cyclonic events in the Atlantic and the Pacific. The present patterns seen in the circulation over the Pacific and the Atlantic are consistent with those proposed in this theory.

Ultimately, if this theory is right and weather patterns are incorporating water vapour into Polar latitudes, it would affect:

  • The strength of the Polar Jet Stream becoming wobbly from the bottom up, from tropospheric circulation forcing instead of from the stratospheric Polar vortex, (more here)
  • Introduction of water vapour into Arctic Polar latitudes would decrease temperature gradients in the Pole reducing ice and snow cover, (more here)
  • that would induce ice melting which in turn would affect SST and Oceanic circulation in the Atlantic and Pacific. That would explain the cold anomaly in SST in the North Atlantic, thus the AMOC and global thermohialine circulation going around the Antarctic and arriving at the Pacific.(more here)
  • Arctic Polar masses of air getting warmed up would become involved in translatitudinal circulation from the Atlantic and the Pacific through the Arctic, in a breathing like cycle. That would open a new channel for balancing gradients of atmospheric pressure between the atmospheric masses of air above both Oceans. That would explain the synchronicity between Low pressures observed in the North Atlantic and North Pacific,(more here)
  • An interconnection between Atlantic and Pacific atmospheric circulation through the Arctic would affect Equatorial winds. That would have an impact over the distribution of SST being dominated by them, being the most relevant the ENSO.(more here and here)
  • Furthermore,  new channels breaking the restriction of keeping warm masses of air bellow Polar circulation would release the thermodynamical limits for equatorial latitudes to absorb water and heat, therefore, increasing thermal conductivity towards upper latitudes. That would explain heat waves moving upward in latitude.(more here and here)
  • At the same time, incorporating the possibility for subtropical circulation to occupy the volume of space at Polar latitudes would allow the global circulation to absorb more energy without steep increases in temperature thanks to the extra volume added to be occupied.(more here)
  • An homogenization in the amount of energy carried in the atmosphere by water vapour would induce a decrease between gradients of energy. That would allow atmospheric events to persist in location and time due to the reduced capacity of the atmosphere to dissipate its energy.(more here)
  • The amount of energy being accommodated by the atmosphere would behave like electricity, being tamed by the capacity of the surroundings to absorb and conduct it. But, like a short circuit, the energy contained in the atmosphere, could overwhelm the capacity for the surroundings to cope with it in a smoothly manner, triggering abrupt discharges from energy in latent heat form carried by the water vapour, into potential energy carried by the masses of water in form of hail and  rain, and kinetic energy generating strong winds. All those forms of energy capable of decimating crops, houses and even killing animals as we have seen in some videos in this post.(more here)

Most definitely, I believe that the climate in our Earth is what it lies between waters. Between cold waters and warms waters, between waters in the atmosphere or those in the ground inland or at the oceans. Altogether, our climate lies on those processes moving energy between waters in the form of gas, liquid or solid.

Water vapour circulation globally 7th Sept 2015 DiegoFdezSevilla

Arctic Dynamics Breathing IN-OUT by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

Atmospheric Dynamics in the Arctic. Breathing IN&OUT. Total Precipitable Water circulation patterns over the North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans on the 13th June 2015 and 7th Sept 2015. Images generated by Nullschool.net from NOAA NCEP/GFS. The days chosen for this images have been selected to represent the conditions mentioned. The periodicity of the two scenarios is variable and it is not represented by the lap of time between the dates. This work is registered and protected by authorship laws.

I believe that the present weather events occurring over the North Hemispheric Atlantic, sustain the arguments which I have discussed previously presenting possible mechanisms acting as a response to atmospheric GHGs and Water Vapour forcing.

7 Oct 2015 Artic WP incorporation Diego FdezSevillaThe major indicator would be the sporadic and unpredictable behaviour of the Jet stream, which not only is wobbly in latitude, but also in the vertical profile of the atmosphere, unable to break blocking patterns of atmospheric pressure such as Highs over Western Europe and over Western USA (California).

Blocking Highs interfering with the Polar Jet Stream at NH on 14th Oct 2015Accordingly, we can see alterations in the thermodynamical behaviour of the tropospheric circulation. In turn, when this cold air touches the lower level of our atmosphere, activates the energy accumulated in the Water vapour contained in it as latent heat, delivering new forms of energy; “Heat waves”, “kinetic” provoking strong winds, “electrostatic” generating lightnings and “potential” carried in the mass of all the water coming from its gaseous state into liquid or solid precipitation.

I have already discussed what is my theory about what it is happening that it is generating such a wobbly jet stream in latitude and altitude. This theory was published in a previous post and it points out the incorporation of masses of water vapour into polar latitudes as consequence of CO2 forcing as the cause wearing out the strength of the Polar Jet Stream.

Conclusions

As I said in the last publication:

“My assessments point to conclude that the mixing ratio between masses of air being warmed up at equatorial and mid-latitudes has increased altering the stratification of the atmosphere in its 3 dimensions.

As a result, some atmospheric events become more erratic in their behaviour and seasons are dominated by localised masses of air instead of the Solar angle of radiation linked with the position and tilt of the Earth.”

That is why locations in Northern latitudes might see warmer conditions than those in the south. Or even high contrasts between locations in the same latitude as we saw between west and east North America.

Such conclusive assessment, based on observations and analyses, serves as a progression pre-verifying the mechanisms purposed in the theory published in this blog in 2014 and following publications such as:

see full publication following the link at the title. _____________________

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The present SSW configuration is just a repetition of previous ones but earlier in time

Polar Vortex, Old News, Same News? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Posted on February 4, 2016 Pdf ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25779.12328

(Here is an excerpt from the publication. Follow link at title to see in full).

In previous publications in this blog I have looked into the atmospheric dynamics being observed for the winter 2015/16 discussing their significance addressing the patterns associated following the line of research presented in this blog.

I have discussed the similarity for the weather events seen over Europe on December 2015, the “Juno” like event seen on Jan 2016 seen over the East of North America, the circulation over the Pacific, the erratic behaviour of the Polar Jet stream and the increasingly frequent reach of warm temperatures at higher latitudes.

Throughout my line of research I suggest that there is one approach which is able to unify all events in a single principle :

The atmosphere might have reached a tipping point in absorbing energy at mid latitudes and the constant contact of warm masses of air with those from polar latitudes has weared off the strength of the Polar Jet Stream.

Such circumstance has allowed the atmosphere to spread the energy carried by water vapour from mid latitudes into northern latitudes (Arctic latitudes), being able of holding more energy than before since it is not dissipated into their surroundings when moving across latitudes.

This time I am looking at how well the behaviour of the Polar Vortex matches with the principle purposed in this line of research.

In November 2014 I defended that the weak stability of the Polar Jet Stream and a broken Polar vortex would be the consequence of an atmospheric dynamic triggered from the bottom up and not the other way aroundWhy there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)Posted on November 14, 2014.

One atmospheric event which I believe follows my interpretations happen with the cold burst over Asia 20th Jan16. From my take, the trigger was from the bottom up due to Strat Sudden Warming generating a sucking effect, like in a vacuum flask (kitasato filtration). Warm air moving up displaced cold air moving down. …

But this event has just brought into light a small portion of what it has to come.

Following the GFS model based on NCEP/NOAA data, the stratospheric circulation at Polar Vortex level is about to receive on the 7th Feb 2016 a mass of air with positive centigrade values in temperature. …

850 hPa Temp Jan2016 Diego Fdez_Sevilla 5_5_25cs 10hPa Temp Diego Fdez-Sevilla

Polar vortex 4th Jan 2016 ECMWF NOAA Diego Fdez-Sevilla

Enlarge image by clicking on it. Polar vortex 4th Jan 2016 ECMWF NOAA Diego Fdez-Sevilla

The repercussion from this circulation in altitude comes in the form of cold temperatures at tropospheric level …

Last comment

I believe that instead of looking at “The Influence of Arctic Amplification on Mid-Latitude Atmospheric Circulation” it should be considered the other way around. Understanding The Influence of Mid-Latitude Atmospheric Circulation on Arctic circulation might be the key to understand many questions on atmospheric dynamics.

By increasing the mixing ratio and turbulent flow in the stratigraphic column of air masses forming our atmosphere we will see an increase in temperature at the Arctic as well as a more predominate and frequent formation of weather systems at tropospheric level at higher latitudes.

Every mass of air moving upwards in altitude and latitude will drag behind a colder mass of air to occupy the space left. Such dynamic will ultimately result in generating low pressures being driven by the strongest winds created by thermal contrasts.

All those symptoms could actually be related with the activity being seen across the Pacific, from equatorial West Pacific towards Arctic East Atlantic. And warm masses of air raising from West Europe all way up to the Arctic and over the Bering Strait.

see full publication following the link at the title. _________________

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Kinetic Processes, Exothermic in Nature

February 28, 2018 Arctic Warming as a Result of Convective Forcing DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.34551.73125

The energy contained by Mid-Latitudinal masses of air is strong enough to work its way towards the North Pole generating warm anomalies in the Arctic at tropospheric and stratospheric levels.

The power expressed for such convective motion is enough to displace Cold Dense masses of air from the Arctic into lower latitudes. The feedback loop resultant addressed in previous assessments is showing throughout this winter 2018. Energy is being released from Latent Heat carried by water vapour at Arctic latitudes (as it can be seen in the Pacific and Atlantic intrusions) and more latent heat is also being released at Mid Latitudes with the intrusion of cold masses of air.

Altogether, convective motions moving towards the Arctic are triggering the release of Latent heat simultaneously in the Arctic and at Mid Latitudes.

The incoming energy released into the atmosphere has the potential of fuelling more convective motion in the atmosphere to the point of self perpetuation, inducing changes in the ENSO phase and all the other Indexes as well as promoting Heat waves towards the seasonal increase in Solar Radiation.

see full publication following the link at the title. _________________

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Feb 2017. Polar Jet Stream and Atmospheric Dynamics. Follow-up over Past and Present Conditions (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Posted on  DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36764.28802

For the last 4 years I have been publishing a line of research addressing environmental topics which has led me to consider integrating all aspects of the global ecosystem in a singular assessment which reflects a synergistic interaction between all of the phases of our environment, liquid (water cycles), solid (land use and cover) and gaseous (Atmosphere and gaseous emissions).

In 2014 I presented a theory about the common thread shared by all those components showcasing the relevance that they play within  variations in the energy flows linking all phases of the ecosystem. Such alteration would have the potential to trigger climatic drifts. Following this assessment I have kept performing assessments looking into the veracity that real time developments would add to my point of view.

There are several publications in this blog which contain the words “follow-up” which can be found easily at the Timeline page.

In particular for the present publication, in April 2016 I published a piece wrapping up conclusions gathered from the assessments carried out to such day.

Atmospheric Dynamics, GHG’s, Thermal Conductivity and Polar Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)

In my research it has become relevant the heterogeneous distribution, composition and behaviour of:

  • monoatomic and polyatomic molecules in the atmosphere;
  • variations in pressure;
  • location of events driven by the strength of winds and thermal contrasts;
  • the enhanced atmospheric mixing ratio due to convective forcing and/or rain events
  • increasing turbulence;
  • the release transport and deposition of aerosols and their behaviour as rain drop nuclei due to their properties over clouds and rain drop formation, energy flows interacting from processes of evaporation and condensation as well as
  • biological evapotranspiration and respiration, and
  • biochemical processes affecting atmospheric composition (photosynthesis).

Furthermore in my research it has become relevant the concentration and time of permanency for different molecular compounds and their different properties interacting in energy flows such as condensable (water) and not condensable gases (GHGs).

All those factors (at least) are relevant since they either define or indicate the state of heat transfer efficiency in the atmosphere.

Derived from addressing synergies and feedbacks between those factors discussed in previous posts, some of my conclusions are:

  • GHGs have the potential of enhancing the thermal conductivity of the atmosphere increasing the capacity of the system to absorb, contain, transport and release energy (in all its forms, kinetic (wind related), thermal (Heat) and potential (mass)) throughout latitudes, longitudes and altitudes.
  • The most important component in the atmosphere carrying such intake of energy is water vapour due to the enhanced thermal conductivity of the atmosphere resultant from GHGs forcing.
  • In a first stage, due to the compartmentalization of atmospheric circulation in the poles thanks to Polar Jet streams, the Equator and Midlatitudes absorb the major change in thermal conductivity (increase in temperature).
  • Due to asymmetric distribution of land surface and GHGs conc between hemispheres, the NH receives the biggest impact than the SH.
  • Once the thermal contrast in the NH Polar Jet Stream is worn out, the polar circulation opens its volume in the atmosphere to accommodate new forms of energy carried by water vapour and GHGs, increasing its thermal conductivity.
  • As a result, the thermal transfer efficiency from mid latitudes would expand into polar latitudes, enhancing heat transfer processes northwards (heat waves) as well as the meltdown of ice caps and precipitation in liquid form out of season (already happened this winter 2015/16).
  • Also, the frequency of masses of air from Polar and Mid Latitudes crossing over the Polar Jet Stream increases the level of exposure to extreme variations jeopardising the development of natural cycles in flora and fauna, when they occur out of season, due to a weak Polar Jet Stream. (see related posts)
  • In other hand, masses of air and pressure systems containing more energy than its surroundings (Thermal/Kinetic/Potential), can create “blocking patterns”, or move higher in altitude instead of dissipating its energy when moving upwards in the atmosphere. Masses of air having the capacity of carrying such thermal energy without dissipating it when moving upwards generate what it is called Sudden Stratospheric Warming events. (also seen through this winter 2016).

My approach towards understanding atmospheric and environmental developments is based on considering that temperature is not only a measure of Energy, it is a measurement of the state for the density of a particular type of matter.

The present conditions and real-time events found in the dynamics of the atmosphere seem to verify those conclusions. Therefore, in the present publication, I offer an assessment over the those features in our atmosphere which I consider relevant in order to allow for the readers to make its own judgement contrasting my previous conclusions with the current atmospheric conditions in order to validate my assessments.

February 2017.

Through the winter 2017 we have seen already a warm event at the stratospheric Polar Vortex,

temp_anom_jfm_nh_2017Variations in temperature over the North Hemisphere divided longitudinally instead of latitudinally,

Intrusions of warm mid-latitudinal masses of air getting into the Arctic

And the Polar Jet Stream bending to an extent that it has connected the warm mid latitudinal masses of air with Arctic circulation.

jet-stream-2-feb-2017-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

2nd February 2017. Wind conditions at 250 hPa, Jet Stream level.

polar-jet-stream-9-feb-2017-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd-m

9 February 2017. Wind conditions at 250 hPa, Jet Stream level.

And all of this while at the South Hemisphere, in Australia are suffering a sequence of heat waves disrupting power infrastructures.

Something is happening in common between both hemispheres. There is enough energy “in the whole planet” to show off “at the same time”, despite “differences in seasonality“, at “opposite regions of the globe” and “solar Day/Night light exposition“.

“The influence of kinetic warming at tropospheric level creates instability at higher levels”

Previous assessments discussing this topic:

Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) 14 Nov 2014

Another Heat Wave Another Polar Vortex II … Broken (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)2016/10/25

Atmospheric conditions

gfs_z70_nh_f00 gfs_t70_nh_f00

gfs_z10_nh_f00gfs_t10_nh_f00

“Indicating an increase in atmospheric mixing”

Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)2016/09/14

Look at present atmospheric dynamics and compare with previous assessments.

(See also other publications discussing “atmospheric mixing” assessments at the index in the timeline)

Which in turn induces a transition from Orbital Melting towards Kinetic Melting (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. (more on this follow link)

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Tipping Points

Some Related Analyses carried out and excerpts from those:

A New Pattern in Atmospheric Circulation drives towards an “unpredictable” New Climatic Scenario (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Posted on pdf at Researchgate with DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.31673.62567

Thermal amplitude regimes (difference between max and min temp in short periods of time) will increase at mid-latitudes under a new atmospheric scenario dominated by mixing patterns resultant from intrusions of mid-latitudinal masses of air into Arctic circulation.

An homogenization in the amount of energy carried in the atmosphere by water vapour would induce a decrease between gradients of energy. That would allow atmospheric events to persist in location and time due to the reduced capacity of the atmosphere to dissipate its energy.

An increase in the amount of energy being in “free” state means that kinetic processes will increasingly dominate thermodynamic processes, inducing a transition in our Seasonal and Climatic regimes from being driven by Orbital Positioning to be driven by more erratic Kinetic processes.


The drainage of the “Arctic cold reservoir” is a process which started with a timid seasonal waving on the Polar Jet Stream. This process has become more extreme by the years, beginning to show as the collapse of a wall under the pressure on a tide gaining strength. Convective forcing from mid latitudes is invading the north pole forcing the displacement of cold masses into foreign territories. What began as a process marked by seasonal pulses, this year 2018 is showing to maintain momentum throughout seasons. The drainage of the Arctic reservoir showed cold blasts in Winter 2017/8 over locations reviving the argument of revisiting post glaciations, while the Arctic was getting anomalously warm. Afterwards, heat waves arrived and all sides got into the “hothouse” of “comforting” past predictions at the same time that anomalous cold blasts arrive in August into Asia, Europe and parts of North America.

Whilst TCs Sergio and Leslie hold their position over open waters (Oct 2018), the Arctic keeps being drained by mid latitudinal intrusion over the Pacific, releasing cold atmospheric icebergs over Canada and Europe. A new pattern building a new climatic regime.

Arctic developments and Hemispheric circulation over 2018

Based on the line of research presented since 2013, the scenario presented over the year 2018 its been characterised by highlighting the inertial momentum carried throughout the years of a pattern. This pattern points to an increase in mixing fluctuations between previously thermally compartmentalised zonifications in the global structure of the atmosphere, in altitude and latitude. And as discussed in previous assessments, without the need of the ENSO as the trigger. Or Solar forcing:

July 24, 2015 Solar Activity and Human Activity, Settling Their Environmental Liability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36702.33606

5 Sept 2018. https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6443179722628165633

Convective forcing from mid latitudes is invading the north pole forcing the displacement of cold masses into foreign territories. What began as a process marked by seasonal pulses, this year 2018 is showing to maintain momentum throughout seasons.

In 2013 I began to publish assessments over climatic developments, following 4 years of weekly analyses linking real time conditions with arguments explaining those. Such activity generated a seasonal agenda linking atmospheric dynamics and particular periods of the year as part of a pattern. The main conclusion reached has been to face a pattern of change in the structure of the atmosphere and its dynamics due to an increase in atmospheric mixing, in altitude, and latitude with Arctic circulation. No global warming or cooling. In order to evaluate the validity of previous assessments I share this publication to be contrasted with current developments as an exercise of open review. Anecdotal evidence or scientific proof? Your turn to judge.

May 26, 2016 Atmospheric Circulation and the Mixing Zone. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34019.04645

Eumetsat Natural Colour Diego FdezSevilla

Polar displacements derived from mid-latitude intrusions on the 8th January and 17th February 2016

30 August 2018. https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6440973308803584000

Within the line of research that I have offered there is an scenario in which things are plausible with a reason. In this scenario it has become a reality to expect heat waves reaching northern latitudes as well as an increase in lightning, storminess, and strong wind episodes. All of which is part of an increase in turbulence due to mixing patterns. In the scenario presented, the synchronicity for the hurricane at Hawaii, cyclones around Japan, cold front over west Europe, monsoon at India and high temp in the Arctic has been highlighted as part of the same energetic motion, and resultant of a driver stronger than variations in sst, convective forcing keeps dominating atmospheric circulation (Convective Forcing Dominates Atmospheric Circulation NH (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Posted on ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.23043.20002 )

The Hurricane Lane arriving at Hawaii last week was something plausible, foreseeable and eminent. And even further than that, it might become frequent. Suggestive examples and anecdotal evidence or scientific “proof”?

The following images are part of the analysis published in the Publication: Statistical Significance and The Scary Side of Being Mild (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Posted on October 9, 2017 pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.21934.61767

Aug 2014

2014 Trio Low P PacificAug 2015

2015 Trio Low P PacificJuly 2016

Lows Pacific July 2016 Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD18th July 2017 Pacific East.

2018 August

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Following the current line of study we are witnessing the evolution of a climatic regime reacting to pressures defining a calendar in a chain reaction following phases.

We are in the fourth phase “heat into motion”, before the next.

In the analysis of the atmospheric circulation presented in this line of research, in the publication from titled A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) some relevant aspects already identified throughout 2018 were already discussed.

Incorporating the possibility for subtropical circulation to occupy the volume of space at Polar latitudes would allow the global circulation to absorb more energy without steep increases in temperature thanks to the extra volume added to be occupied.(more here)

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2018 Relevant Atmospheric Patterns and Climatic Dynamics

Arctic temperatures

Long Arctic surface annual air temperature series: Fairbanks (Alaska), Nuuk (Greenland), Akureyri (Iceland), Svalbard (Norway), Ostrov Dikson (Siberia), and Hatanga (Siberia). Annual values were calculated from monthly average temperatures. climate4you

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

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2018 About the current mismatch between the ENSO and atmospheric dynamics:

ENSO. The “El Niño” index has come to be on the news once again.

Is El Niño to blame for the big Southern storm? By Jeff Berardelli (updated / CBS News) https://www.cbsnews.com/news/is-el-nino-to-blame-for-the-big-southern-storm/

“El Niño expert Tony Barnston from the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University says some El Niño criteria are still missing. “Although the sea surface temperatures are clearly at El Niño levels, the atmosphere is just not yet participating much.” In other words, right now the ocean criterion is met, but the atmosphere has yet to respond in the way it should.”

I would recall previous analyses to assess the current conditions, and in particular the following ones:

2018 About Convective Forcing Strengthening at the NH

From my participation at LinkedIn (https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6474695231446020096)

One image can speak volumes but volumes of words not always do the job. big challenge comes on making an interpretation of the one already available finding the Nexus between all the different postures in the debate on climate. Here an image about the actual state of the circulation at the NH thanks to Antony . Alex Bagalue which is directly related with my assessments at diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com :

  • The global Temperature measured is the resultant of mixing patterns in the atmosphere,
  • Therefore an increase in mixing dynamics creates a pause in temperature raise, An increase in mixing dynamics show an increase in convective forcing,
  • Convective forcing is the work resultant from an increase in atmospheric energy being incorporated in free state,
  • The incorporation and spread of energy in free state into the atmosphere is carried and released by water vapour
  • An increase of water vapour in atmospheric circulation requires an increase in the thermal capacity of the atmosphere
  • The process of enhancing the thermal capacity of the atmosphere comes by increasing the concentration of GHGs, conc of aerosols and land surface albedo

28 Nov 2018 Pacific Dynamics.

2018 Related previous analysis:

Recent conditions for 500 hPa Geopotential 500 hPa and temperature at 850 hPa sd

20 Nov 2018 ECMWF 500 hPa Geopotential 500 hPa and temperature at 850 hPa sd

20 Nov 2018 ECMWF 500 hPa Geopotential 500 hPa and temperature at 850 hPa sd

12 Dec 2018 ECMWF 500 hPa Geopotential 500 hPa and temperature at 850 hPa sd

12 Dec 2018 ECMWF 500 hPa Geopotential 500 hPa and temperature at 850 hPa sd

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html

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Energetic Dynamics and Climate Modelling

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Radiation does not require an intervening medium “to travel over distances” but it requires medium to be transformed into heat. That is why the Earth and the Moon have such differences in temperature receiving same amount of radiation. The moon has only one medium absorbing radiation. The solid surface, which has no other medium to store and transfer heat, so it is cold. Yet the Earth has solid, liquid and gaseous phases or mediums capable of transferring and store heat. That is why the Earth is warm with only half of its surface receiving radiation. And unevenly warm due to the transport of heat by atmospheric circulation, which is the real problem. (read more at:

March 10, 2016 Tangled in Words. Atmospheric Dynamics, Stefan Boltzmann Calculations and Energy Balance (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.28443.57120

If there is something that makes my line of research to differ from the rest is the fact that, based on my previous analyses since 2013, I see our present as the future that climatic studies have been struggling to define. While mainstream research on Climatic developments work about the probability of seeing our future shaped by numbers, the present line of research studies real time developments to understand the numbers that those generate and their meaning.

While probabilistic studies work between self-imposed margins of freedom, my line of study look at margins of probability based on real time events for which their probability of happening does not play a role seen they are already happening.

By looking into the projection of probabilistic scenarios, which might or not happen, the methodology applied accumulates margins of error throughout all the chain of commands (from data retrieval, …)

The scope of Environmental Science and scientific thought. From Thought-driven to Data-driven, from Critical Thinking to Data Management. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2007.0161 June 26, 2015
February 6, 2018 Feb 2018. Climate Drifts and The Scientific Method of Waiting 30 Years. Follow up on previous assessments by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18823.09122

An struggle which comes with the limitation of any methodology which aims to build future scenarios based on accumulating probabilistic margins of error .

Throughout 2018 I have written my assessments with that perspective and, if I have done my work properly, I hope that reading those assessments in combination with all previous work will give a full picture. (Climate. Drivers and Passengers in a Journey without Destination. Five Years Research By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Posted on

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Overall Conclusions Reached throughout Previous Analyses

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Within the limitations (an freedom) of performing my line of research independently from any institution and single handed the statistical level of confidence that I have over my assessments can be described by the following correlation for a single variable between locations around the NH (Variable and locations set private to protect Intellectual Property):

Diegto Fdez-Sevilla

2013-2018 Overall Conclusions

This year 2018 many of the topics discussed through the line presented show to be supported by conclusions discussed throughout all the analyses presented:

  • There is no need for the Polar Vortex to Break in order to have Arctic displacements into Mid-Latitunal circulation. Tropospheric Circulation fuelled by convective forcing is affecting Arctic circulation from the bottom up instead of the theory suggesting Stratospheric forcing.
  • The ENSO is not a driver of convective forcing over the NH,
  • Convective forcing from Mid-latitudinal towards the Arctic circulation has wear off the gradients of temperature generating a strong Polar Jet Stream.
  •  Arctic warming occurs through atmospheric intrusions from Mid Latitudes,
  • The collapse of the Polar Jet Stream has opened Arctic circulation to Mid-Latitudinal intrusions allowing Trans-Arctic circulation between Pacific and Atlantic Basins.
  •  The global Temperature measured is the resultant of mixing patterns in the atmosphere,
  • Therefore an increase in mixing dynamics creates a pause in temperature raise,
  • An increase in mixing dynamics show an increase in convective forcing,
  • Convective forcing is the work resultant from an increase in atmospheric energy being incorporated in free state,
  • The incorporation and spread of energy in free state into the atmosphere is carried and released by water vapour
  • An increase of water vapour in atmospheric circulation requires an increase in the thermal capacity of the atmosphere
  • The process of enhancing the thermal capacity of the atmosphere comes by increasing the concentration of GHGs, conc of aerosols and land surface albedo.
  • Several processes carried out by human activity are linked with the previous assessment: human activity reduces the capacity of the biotic environment to fix energy from free state into inert state by reducing biochemical processing and storage (CxHxOx photosynthesis and biomass) and increases atmospheric concentrations of GHGs by releasing CO2 and H2O into the atmosphere. Also, land use and cover transformations increase albedo, industrial activities increase aerosols and the compartmentalization of water affects water cycles.
  • In a thermodynamic system the energetic pool is the sum of the amount of energy in free state capable of doing work, and the energy fixed in an inert form as part of mass. The amount of energy in free state is proportional to the amount of energy fixed in inert form as mass (E=mc2). The release of energy from its inert form increases the amount of energy in free state to do work. Energy is not created, neither destroyed. The transformation of the three phases of the environment forced by human activities, gaseous (atmosphere), liquid (water cycle) and solid (land use and cover), increases the amount of energy in free state capable of promoting all forms of work; convective forcing, strong winds, solid and liquid precipitation, lightning, dust storms, heat waves, cold displacements, and ultimately, and increase in atmospheric mixing in altitude and across latitudes.

2018 Developments Validating Previous Conclusions

In 2014 the line of research defined by the assessments published in this blog could not be verified by peer reviewed articles due to the absence of them applying similar approach. That was confirmed by direct communication with Prof Jennifer Francis by email (in full follow link here).

Francis communication

Since those emails I took the challenge of generating my own analyses in in real time and in a weekly basis time-frame. Between Oct 2013 to date (Dec 2018) more than 200 assessments have been published in this blog supporting the line of research proposed (see Timeline here). Those publications have received many visits but few researchers have chosen to share their opinion on them. And none to acknowledge their contribution publicly through their work. (see below images with stats from LinkedIn and a sample listing centres visiting this blog on the right side of this blog).

In 2016, some peer reviewed publications start to appear supporting those assessments and arguments shared in this blog. If you are familiarised with them you will easily identify the arguments verifying each other despite the difference between the vocabulary applied in my assessments (open for understanding to most levels) and those in the scientific journals.

If you need some clarification on why my assessments are not published in scientific journals, the reason is that: through the line of research that I have presented since 2013, I have not had a remunerated position in research, neither economic or institutional support which would allow me to do it. Furthermore, as Jennifer said, the data and assessments which I supply, based on analytical thinking and observation, even though, those are consistent with the arguments which I developed and, they represented an innovation in identifying mechanisms and patterns in atmospheric dynamics, “could not be verified by previous published analyses“.

So it is up to you to consider the value of my assessments under the new light brought by the new analyses being published.

The validation over my work that I could not find from Jennifer Francis, and neither from peered reviewed publications in 2014, has already started to be published in scientific journals addressing specific points highlighted throughout my research, even though without making any references to the line of research here presented:

A main conclusion has been to assess that the role of Water vapour is increasing its role in atmospheric dynamics being dragged into Higher Latitudes and strengthening Convective forcing:

October 21, 2014 New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4859.3440
November 14, 2014 Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2500.0488
February 10, 2015 Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1975.7602/1

April 19, 2018 Climate, Weather and Energy. Using a Climatic Regime to explain Weather Events by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Research DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.27923.58406:

“Altogether the dynamics seen support the conclusions offered suggesting an increase in mixing processes driving atmospheric circulation. A work fuelled by energy introduced in the atmosphere in free state, absorbed by GHGs and delivered in location by water vapour.”

_______Recent peer reviewed publication validates such assessment:________

From Eurekalert Public Release: 12-Dec-2018

Record-wet and record-dry months increased in regions worldwide

Climate change drives rainfall extremes.

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

More and more rainfall extremes are observed in regions around the globe – triggering both wet and dry records, a new study shows. Yet there are big differences between regions: The central and Eastern US, northern Europe and northern Asia have experienced heavy rainfall events that have led to severe floods in recent past. In contrast, most African regions have seen an increased frequency of months with a lack of rain. The study is the first to systematically analyze and quantify changes in record-breaking monthly rainfall events from all over the globe, based on data from roughly 50,000 weather stations worldwide. Climate change from fossil fuel greenhouse gases has long been expected to disturb rainfall patterns.

„We took a close look at observed monthly rainfall data – if it’s not just a few days but several weeks that are record wet, this can accumulate over time and lead to large river floods, or to droughts if it is record dry,” says lead author Jascha Lehman from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). The impacts on people’s livelihoods in the affected regions can be huge, ranging from flooded houses to endangered food security due to large-scale agricultural losses.

Related Assessment from the present line of research

Based on previous analyses the assessment for the current situation would be as follows:

Convective forcing keeps dominating atmospheric circulation. The evolution of a pattern being unfolded in front our eyes.

850 hPa temperature / 500 hPa geopotential Thursday 25 Oct 2018. ECMWF.

The warmest anomalies are found in the part of the planet with the lowest radiation from the sun. It is not a warming driven by orbital positioning and planet’s tilt.

Estimated daily dosage of erythemally weighted UV radiation. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

No need for the Polar Vortex to Break in order to affect tropospheric circulation from Arctic circulation. Neither superficial waters at the Arctic are loosing temperature into the atmosphere since those waters are “retaining” heat “anomalously”. 

If we look at the conditions of the El Niño and Arctic regions as the consequences of previous dynamics, those conditions are the continuity of a dynamic with an earlier origin which has led to the current situation, and moves forward.

I would like to extend my comment pointing to analyses that I have published offering my interpretation of the reasons explaining this situation:

Arctic Warming

Arctic Amplification takes an assumption open for discussion: “sea ice acts as a barrier for the heat transport from the ocean to the atmosphere.” Actually, sea ice acts as a barrier for the heat transport *from the atmosphere to the ocean. The line of research offered taking Arctic SST as responsible for warming processes is not considering the thermodynamics behind changes in phase (liquid/solid/gas) and the difference between condensible and not condensible GHGs. Heat moves between locations AND phases. SST warming the atmosphere would loose heat, thus forming ice.

Summary of relevant publications addressing Arctic dynamics:

  • An interconnection between Atlantic and Pacific atmospheric circulation through the Arctic would affect Equatorial winds. That would have an impact over the distribution of SST being dominated by them, being the most relevant the ENSO.(more here and here)

  • Related analyses:
November 17, 2016 Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.24688.35848
December 17, 2016 Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20129.81760
February 28, 2018 Arctic Warming as a Result of Convective Forcing by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD  Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34551.73125

Atmospheric Dynamics

The current line of research studies and discusses current developments throughout publications from 2013 to date. In the analyses presented I offer points of view unifying in a single argument the behaviour of drivers such as ENSO, Arctic Amplification and Polar Vortex configuration. That is, an increase in the atmospheric energetic pool in the form of free state is fuelling a mixing dynamic (Convective motion) responsible for creating fluctuations in temperature patterns, and yet, denoting a constant increase in kinetic displayments.

The increasing warming over mid-latitudes is using water vapour as the carrier of energy incorporating it over the whole atmosphere and into Arctic latitudes. Such mechanism will increase the energy pool at the Arctic, what in other words can be seen as an increase in temperature and processes of SSW affecting the POLAR Vortex configuration.

Furthermore, the spread of energy contained by water vapour also affects the resilience shown by Lows and Highs to dissipate their energy at lower latitudes and affects developments at the ITCZ zone and equatorial wind shear at the Eq. Pacific.

A pattern of change in the atmosphere dynamics beyond considering global warming or cooling. That is, global mixing.

From previous analyses:

October 13, 2016 Global Mixing in Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.21255.60320

From my line of research I am convinced on that Arctic perturbations at the Atlantic basin (warm intrusions over the Arctic and cold at mid-latitudes) are responsible for the genesis of Tropical Systems due to alterations over the ITCZ.

From there, the behaviour and paths followed by them would also be driven by more Arctic perturbations (combination of warm intrusions at the North Pacific and North Atlantic and cold at lower latitudes) inducing changes in pressure located all around their path, in front and behind their movement.

At least these are part of my interpretations from my observations. There might be experts with a different analyses.

What concerns to my research is the resilience of the storm to dissipate its energy, and I am considering not only the conditions at tropospheric level but also at higher altitudes.

In the latest post in my blog (Equatorial Dynamics. A conversation between Joaquin and Matthew (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. I pointed out that the equator has shown to be warmed up at 50hPa. Altogether it will reduce the differential in the gradients of energy between the storm and its surroundings reducing the dissipation rate of its energy, allowing for it to hover keeping momentum as we have seen with other storms moving for days over the Atlantic. (see video Equatorial dynamics)

In the present publication I want to point out how much interconnected are the processes linking Arctic perturbations (Pacific and Atlantic basins) with the developments at the Pacific and Atlantic ITCZ on generating mixing dynamics in latitude and altitude. (see video Global Mixing Oct 2016)

Related

September 14, 2016 Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.19874.63684

Throughout the line of research presented several animations have addressed the arguments offered supporting with a visual aid the patterns addressed.

drops-of-weather-sept-2016-diegto-fdez-sevilla-phd

31 October 2018 Airmass and IR.

In my assessments I have defended that the increase in the energy pool at mid-latitudes would ultimately create an scenario with an overcharged atmosphere. That would reduce the contrasts with which to create and maintain stability in the structure required to condense energy in singular events, like hurricanes. Giving more relevance to the single contrast between Ocean/continental masses. However, the opening of the Arctic circulation through a weak Jet Stream would reduce the pressure in the containment absorbing the condensation of energy at mid-latitudes, expanding into a new volume.

Accordingly, hadley circulation gets affected (see also) generating new patterns of turbulence at the ITCZ as well as it gets influenced Arctic mixing zones with lower latitudes.

In this scenario TCs are generated under an increase in the mixing ratio of an unstable atmospheric circulation dominated by kinetic energy transferred by water vapour thanks to GHGs, and immersed in an overcharged atmosphere with no place where to diffuse its energy, becoming resilient as long as they stay over the ocean. So they endure like a piece of an ice rock in cold water.

About Sea Surface Temperatures, my assessments take SST as subsequent conditions driven by wind shear. So the interaction between masses of air in circulation allows or inhibits SST developments. Once the scenario is built on SST this becomes a “battle field” conditioning the subsequent interaction between the following masses of air and the characteristics of the “grounds” where the game will be played (sort of speak). Like the effect of the ice conditions in an ice hockey match.

El Niño is an event which happens in a very small portion of the Earth, it is related to the temperature of a very thin layer of the Ocean in depth (e.g.: coralreefwatch.noaa.gov uses SSTs at “one meter” depth). A small percentage of the area occupied by the whole Oceanic masses, and even smaller when it is integrated in the multidimensional space combining Ocean and Atmosphere. It is kind of intriguing to think why it has been so easy to conclude that such small portion of the entire system is driving it as a whole. It is like considering that the flowering of plants drives the seasons. Similarly it could be said about using SST at the Arctic to justify altogether; the lack of ice, warmer temperatures at tropospheric level and even at stratospheric level. There is not enough energy in the SST of such small area as it is the Arctic to justify all those convective dynamics.

In the present study I have been very persistent trying to highlight how much relevance it is given to a small area in size and depth driving global circulation as it is the SST at the Eq Pacific while an area of the same size and even more depth could be identified in the Amazon or by the change suffered in Land cover by agriculture at global scale.

We have to keep in mind that SST are measured in the 5 or less m of the Ocean meanwhile Forests can occupy more than 15 meters in depth. And both are sources of the latent heat carried out in the atmosphere which fuels convective dynamics.

  • Between global warming and global cooling there is global mixing.
September 8, 2015 Trans-Arctic circulation between Pacific and Atlantic Basins. A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla).  Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1697.5847
May 26, 2016 Atmospheric Circulation and the Mixing Zone. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34019.04645
July 1, 2016 Atmospheric mixing. Indian Basin June 2016 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.11803.98088
August 26, 2016 Aug 2016 Follow-up on previous assessments. Atmospheric Dynamics, Temperature Displacements, Atmospheric Mixing (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

September 14, 2016 Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.19874.63684
October 13, 2016 Global Mixing in Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.21255.60320
May 5, 2017 Mixing Dynamics keep shaping A Roller coaster of Temperatures over South Europe. Follow-up on previous research 5th May 17. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.16627.43043
June 9, 2017 “Mixing Dynamics” in the Atmosphere. A follow-up on previous research by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.23548.03209
March 14, 2018 Visualising Wind and Convective Forcing Driving Climatic Dynamics. Follow-up 14 March 2018 by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD  Pdf available at DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34233.06249
April 19, 2018 Climate, Weather and Energy. Using a Climatic Regime to explain Weather Events by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Research DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.27923.58406
May 23, 2018 Convective Forcing Dominates Atmospheric Circulation NH (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.23043.20002
June 29, 2018 Seasonal Transitions under a New Climatic Scenario. by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18385.22881
August 24, 2018 The Arctic Conundrum. Follow-up on previous research by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD   ResearchGate pdf DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.15411.68640
October 18, 2018 Arctic Dynamics as part of a Global Pattern in Atmospheric Circulation. Research Follow-up October 2018 (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)

_______________________________________

Conclusions on:

Weather, Climate, Energy, Environment and Man


The question  driving the whole debate on Climatic Deviations from “a Normal”, or Climatic Drift, focus most of the methodologies on temperature.

However I have followed a different approach in my analyses looking at Gradients of Energy in all its forms. That is why in 2014 I offered my thoughts as a theory of practical applications.

Energy fuels the work done by warm masses of air displacing colder masses of air in their path. That increases mixing patterns generating anomalies in temperature.

Behind an increase in the amount of work carried out by masses of air there is an increase in the energy fuelling such dynamics. Energy can only be transferred, not created or destroyed. So more work means more energy in circulation. More energy in circulation can only be sustained by a substance carrying it. Either if we consider that the energy driving anomalies comes from the Sun or from the Oceans, the carrier has to be in the atmosphere in order for the energy to produce work. And the body loosing heat cools down.

E.g. A corridor of wind over the Arctic is triggered by a conversion of Temperature into work, convection and advection, which are the result of mixing masses of air. As I have published in previous analyses, such Trans-Arctic connection between Atlantic and Pacific Basins is part of a pattern increasing the mixing ratio between masses of air otherwise separated by thermal compartmentalization, like the Polar Jet Stream. An increase in the dispersion of energetic forms have different outcomes, one of which it would be a temporary reduction in the average temperature resultant for the mixing between Cold (Arctic) and warm (Mid-Latitude) masses of air as well as in altitude (SSW).

Subsequently, “temperature” is less reliable than looking at “work” seen even in the “mild” events.

In the framework presented throughout the line of research published in this blog (and researchgate) it has been considered “Climate” as being defined by the amount of energy free to do work. In other words, energy free to promote weather events. Accordingly, in my research I define Climate by the amount and state of energy in circulation, and Weather by the use of this energy.

Consequently, with the definition applied for Climate and Weather, my definition of Climate Drift is:

“the deviation from equilibrium of the conditions allowing the perpetuity of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in a micro and macro ecosystem. This situation can be due to changes in any component of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes can be either a change in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality or rates in the flows of energy pre-established OR/AND the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components/forces and energy sinks or sources in any part of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance.”

Discussion

The analyses performed in my line of research describe a Climatic Drift, from pre-established atmospheric conditions strongly compartmentalised in Altitude and Latitude, towards a Climatic Regime characterised by an instability originated by patterns of Trans-latitudinal and Vertical mixing. An increase in atmospheric motion inducing sudden and extreme changes in atmospheric conditions generating weather events with abnormal properties for a particular location, throughout latitudes, longitudes and altitudes.

Einstein and his developments were mainly applied in physics due to the use that it was made of his work with the aim to manipulate energy in times of conflict, or to understand space. The equation is simple E=mc2. The language of physics has dominated the discussion over physical developments since then and it has been established as the logical translation of climatic developments. However, in the current times, the role of scientific understanding demands to move beyond the barriers of language, either between semantic cultural languages and between disciplines.

Being myself a Biologist involved in Atmospheric dynamics applying physics to explain such a complex subject as it is climatic evolution might seem like the tale of the child claiming that the Emperor has no clothes.

And yet, it seems to me evident that a thermodynamic system as it is our planet, can not scape from the most basic and powerful understanding of our contemporary scientific evolution. If E=MC2, and the anthropogenic activity is increasing the transformation of M into Energy in the system (from burning Mass from fossils and vegetable components, as well as by liberating other forms of energy such as gravimetric in Dams, Solar, transformation of raw materials, etc,) such transformation rate will move the balance in the thermodynamic behaviour of the whole system, and the rate of such deviation from equilibrium will be related with the speed at which the transformation rate between E/M is performed: M>(c)2

Restating obvious facts is something I believe it is missing in the actual state of knowledge. Many situations, concepts and indexes are what it was left to make a compromise between what was possible to be considered useful at the time. Nobody explained the mechanisms behind those indexes, only the explanation of their existence based on the probability of seeing those patterns to repeat in time. Such probability and uncertainty became “lost” in translation through publications and their basic facts became also accommodated positions from where to stand discussing the future, almost never looking back at the fundamentals sustaining them. Like the ENSO used as a justification without knowing what the ENSO is or the NAO as if both would be static features through time. Those indexes were created based on probability from a static point of view and static references. But, if the atmosphere change its composition and thermodynamics behaviour, how much probability could we expect in seeing those features not changing?? Like the currents in a river, those are temporary features resultant from temporary states in topographic shape and flow levels, same with energy in the atmosphere.

It has been considered as an obvious fact that:

“The Natural System responds to variations and changes in the Climate System.”

Based on my research, I believe that there is a new “factorial” order in our environmental system which comes described by the same components but moving in opposite directions. At the end of the day, or at the beginning of our days, it was biotic processes which made possible the climate we have, and not the other way around.

“The Climate System responds to variations and changes in the Natural System.”

Conclusions

The main conclusion reached from the research carried through this project is defined by the relation described by Einstein between the “free” state of Energy and its “fixed” state as mass.

An ecosystem is an open system because it can exchange energy or materials with other ecosystems. Earth is a closed system with respect to nutrients and chemicals, but open with respect to energy.

The thermodynamic properties of the Earth system define what we call the climatic regimes in our Planet. Those thermodynamic interactions are driven under the fundamental principle:

Energy can neither be created nor destroyed, it can only be changed from one form to another”

This principle links the activity of the human development with the thermodynamic behaviour of our climates.

The main conclusion from my 4 years of researching synergistic interactions between all transformations seen over the Liquid, Gaseous and solid phases of our global Environment indicates that anthropogenic activity is forcing our environment into A System Becoming Dominated By Free Energy. (DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18509.13289)

The biotic component of our environmental system is the only one capable of interacting against thermodynamic entropy, against instability. And for as long as Human activity can not replicate such mechanisms in equilibrium with the resources consumed, it might be time to think about domesticating Human Activities instead of following the obsession for Domesticating Natural Behaviour and Geoengineer our Weather. 

Land Use Change through time.

Examples of processes releasing ENERGY FROM ANTHROPOGENIC ACTIVITIES

From previous post Domesticating Nature

Atmospheric Oxygen Levels

Atmospheric Oxygen Levels are Decreasing Oxygen levels are decreasing globally due to fossil-fuel burning. The changes are too small to have an impact on human health, but are of interest to the study of climate change and carbon dioxide. These plots show the atmospheric O2 concentration relative to the level around 1985. The observed downward trend amounts to 19 ‘per meg’ per year. This corresponds to losing 19 O2 molecules out of every 1 million O2 molecules in the atmosphere each year.

Scripps O2 Global Oxygen Measurements The Scripps O2 Program measures changes in atmospheric oxygen levels from air samples collected at stations around the world. This sampling network provides a global and hemispheric perspective on oxygen variability. The Scripps O2 Program is based at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at La Jolla, California and is under the direction of Professor Ralph Keeling.

Overall Conclusions

An increase in the amount of energy being in “free” state means that kinetic processes will increasingly dominate thermodynamic processes, inducing a transition in our Seasonal and Climatic regimes from being driven by Orbital Positioning to be driven by more erratic Kinetic processes.


Research Framework.

Since 2002 I have performed research over the Atmospheric Dynamics interacting with the biota in the field of Aerobiology (PhD studying atmospheric conditions affecting the efficiency of pollen sampling and the aerodynamic behaviour of pollen. Conclusions here. Article on anthropogenic forcing over plants performance here).

In Oct 2013 I focused my attention over climatic dynamics.

The assessments presented in this line of research are not weather reports but interpretations over emerging dynamics, offering arguments and discussion addressing the lack of understanding acknowledged in academia in order to identify mechanisms giving sense to data.

In  AUGUST 2014, Cohen et al, published a review over the state of knowledge on Climatic Assessments (DOI:10.1038/NGEO2234) The final remark stated that: “other studies on related topics, especially other observational studies, share some of the same shortcomings: lack of statistical significance, causality unclear, incomplete mechanistic understanding, and so on”)

Based on my analyses, in Oct 2014 I published what I believe to be a valid theory explaining current developments in atmospheric dynamics. I shared my thoughts at my blog and several groups in LinkedIn (like the AGU, NASA and NOA groups) where the immense response offered has been silence.

October 21, 2014 New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4859.3440

The theory that I have developed follows “in alignment” with the work published previously by scientists  Judah CohenMasato Mori, Colin Summerhayes, Coumou and Ted Shepherd. Their work supported the theory of that early snowfall over Asia increases albedo leading to heat retention in the atmosphere provoking Arctic ice to melt. Their approach point to decreasing snow cover as the cause diminishing albedo enhancing heat absorption. Ultimately, their approach theorize that such enhanced capacity of the Arctic to absorb heat would lead to “amplify” atmospheric heat absorption already being fuelled with GHGs. And therefore, such increase in atmospheric temperature would reduce the thermal contrast required for a strong jet stream and consequently originating disturbance in atmospheric weather patterns associated.

What I propose with my hypothesis is that the so called “Arctic Amplification” is a synchronic consequence altogether with other environmental phenomena (ENSO, NAO, etc…) and not the trigger. I defend that “Artic Amplification” is a symptom and not a causation of atmospheric dynamics. Arctic circulation does not amplify a process but on the contrary, it reflects the consequence of absorbing the influence from mid-latitude conditions. (updates can be found in the category polar vortex and jet stream. 26/04/2016)

What I am trying to highlight in my theory are the possible mechanisms which would explain: changes in albedo which support the concept of “Arctic Amplification”, early snowfalls in central Asia, Arctic ice cover meltdown and oceanic increases in salinity and ultimately, the origin of atmospheric blocking patterns and a slow down or “pause” in T raise, unified in single principle: Increasing conc. of CO2 and water vapour induce a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation.


In December 2014 I sent several emails asking for feedback. The 17th of December 2014, Jennifer Francis sent her answer to me (full email exchange here):

“The topic you’ve written about is extremely complicated and many of your statements have not yet been verified by peer-reviewed research. It is an exciting and active new direction in research, though, so I encourage you to pursue it. To get funding or a job in this field, however, will require a deeper understanding of the state of the research, knowledge of atmospheric dynamics (not just suggestive examples and anecdotal evidence), and statements supported by published (or your own) analysis.”

On December 24, 2014, I sent her my reply, which represents the final one since there has not been further communication:

“I just want to thank you for giving me a chance and read my ideas. What I wrote was after reading that Cohen proposed that early snowfall over Asia increases albedo leading to heat retention in the atmosphere provoking Arctic ice to melt and create heat absorption leading to jet stream weakening due to Arctic Amplification in atm heat absorption. I believe that all of that is a consequence and not the trigger. That is a symptom and not the cause. My theory tries to find common ground to explain the cause leading to Arctic amplification, blocking patterns associated to deep cyclonic events, a pause in atmospheric T raise, increase in kinetic energy dispersed over the whole hemisphere, water flash floods, as well as frequent  trans-equatorial circulation between hemispheres at jet stream level. I will try to find data to support my theory and I am open to reconsider all my assumptions. That’s why I really appreciate your input.”

In Feb 2015 I published a revision and since then, a constant follow-up throughout more than 230 assessments.

A Seasonal Calendar

Such activity generated a seasonal calendar or agenda, linking atmospheric dynamics and particular periods of the year as part of a pattern.

This calendar has allowed me to create a framework over which to identify atmospheric dynamics linked throughout the seasonality driven by Solar tilt and its deviations between years. One example can be found over the conditions found at the Arctic and its implication over Mid Latitudinal and equatorial developments.

Some examples among the +200 analyses published between Oct 2013 and March 2018 are in the following section. See full index of analyses and their DOI’s following the link here. Open individual analyses to read in full by clicking over the title.

Climate Drifts

Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Drift. Are we there yet? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) July 2, 2015
September 2, 2016 Climate Drift, The True Meaning of Things and the Drift of Those. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

The ENSO

InFormAtion. The “Act” of “Giving Form” to “Knowledge” (by Diego fdez-Sevilla) September 30, 2015
December 11, 2015 Could It Be El Niño The New “Wolf” Coming? Discussing SST ” El Niño ” and Climatic Developments. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
March 22, 2016 Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)

Solar activity

April 10, 2014 Exploring the effects of humanly generated factors in the role played by Solar activity in the climate. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
July 24, 2015 Solar Activity and Human Activity, Settling Their Environmental Liability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36702.33606
September 22, 2016 Solar Forcing in Our Climatic and Atmospheric Dynamics. Location, Location, Location (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)

Soils

December 9, 2015 SOILS. The Skeleton Holding The Muscle On Our Ecosystems (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
March 31, 2016 Plant growth, CO2, Soil and Nutrients. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)

Biological Productivity in our atmospheric and climatic developments.

August 14, 2014 Biotic players and atmospheric processes. Another piece of the puzzle. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
Debating Climate, Environment and Planetary evolution. Define your position. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) October 2, 2014
June 26, 2014 Biological Productivity and its Influence on Cloud Formation. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
December 22, 2014 Biological Productivity, Amazonia and Atmospheric Circulation. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
May 7, 2015 Domesticating Nature. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
May 20, 2015 News from an Ecosystem (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
June 18, 2015 Extreme climatic events, implications for projections of species distributions and ecosystem structure (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
August 2, 2016 Environmental Questions and Answers for Petrol Fans (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)
March 3, 2017 Thermodynamic Ecosystems by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD
March 15, 2017 Blooming Activity of Biotic Processes All The Way Round the Globe (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)

Arctic Amplification and Antarctic dynamics.

October 7, 2015 Arctic Intake of Water Vapour (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
October 30, 2015 Follow-up on Arctic circulation 30 Oct 2015 ( by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
November 5, 2015 There is Ice or Frost In Antarctica? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
June 10, 2016 The Butterfly Effect on Arctic Circulation. Peer review verification on previous assessments (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
November 10, 2016 Cyclonic Alignment Towards the Arctic (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)
November 17, 2016 Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)
March 3, 2017 The Antarctic Bubble (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)

Trans-latitudinal Dynamics. Equator-Tropics-Mid Latitudes-Polar

January 28, 2015 The origin of the Storm “Juno” 27 Jan 2015 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
September 8, 2015 A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla).
October 7, 2016 Equatorial Dynamics. A conversation between Joaquin and Matthew (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)
October 13, 2016 Global Mixing in Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.)
March 8, 2017 Those Little Things in Atmospheric Dynamics. Juno, Jonas, Mathew and Joaquin (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)
February 28, 2018 Arctic Warming as a Result of Convective Forcing by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD  Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34551.73125

Teleconnections

In climate it is becoming Less probable to not have a High probability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 29, 2015
June 5, 2015 Climate and Data. Drinking From the Source (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
InFormAtion. The “Act” of “Giving Form” to “Knowledge” (by Diego fdez-Sevilla) September 30, 2015
October 21, 2015 Discussing Climatic Teleconnections. Follow Up On My Previous Research (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
October 16, 2015 SST Anomalies and Heat Waves. Are They Not All Just Heat Displacements? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
January 20, 2017 Climate and Indexes. A dashboard of Confusion. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)

Scientific Method

February 21, 2014 Resilience in our models (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
February 25, 2014 Resilience in our environment. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
“The Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything” is … 42 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 15, 2014
When the order of the factors does affect the product. “A Changing Climate can affect the diversity of an ecosystem” Vs “Changing the diversity of an ecosystem can affect the Climate”. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 21, 2014
Communication takes more than just publishing thoughts. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) June 9, 2015
The scope of Environmental Science and scientific thought. From Thought-driven to Data-driven, from Critical Thinking to Data Management. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) June 26, 2015
InFormAtion. The “Act” of “Giving Form” to “Knowledge” (by Diego fdez-Sevilla) September 30, 2015
March 10, 2017 Modelling the “Model” and the Observer (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)

Water

July 17, 2014 Could plastic debris, coarse, fine and molecules (polymers), affect oceans functions as climate regulator, CO2 sink, albedo, evaporation…? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
August 6, 2014 Inland sanctuaries of water vapour for atmospheric circulation. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)

Continentality

May 13, 2014 Looking at the influence of continentality in atmospheric circulation. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)

Thermodynamics

October 21, 2014 (Updated 22/Dec/14) New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
January 29, 2016 Observed Atmospheric Dynamics. A follow-up assessment over the theory proposed on Energetic gradients by Diego Fdez-Sevilla.
March 10, 2016 Tangled in Words. Atmospheric Dynamics, Stefan Boltzmann Calculations and Energy Balance (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
May 26, 2016 Atmospheric Circulation and the Mixing Zone. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
May 30, 2016 When Temperature Becomes Something Else (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
July 1, 2016 Atmospheric mixing. Indian Basin June 2016 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)
September 14, 2016 Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)
December 17, 2016 Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)
March 3, 2017 Thermodynamic Ecosystems by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD
April 19, 2018 Climate, Weather and Energy. Using a Climatic Regime to explain Weather Events by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Research DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.27923.58406
May 23, 2018 Convective Forcing Dominates Atmospheric Circulation NH (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.23043.20002

Temperature

Talking about climate (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 12, 2015
August 6, 2015 Atmospheric Composition and Thermal Conductivity. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
April 6, 2016 Atmospheric Dynamics, GHG’s, Thermal Conductivity and Polar Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.33911.32167
November 25, 2016 Atmospheric Thermal Conductance (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)
March 3, 2017 Thermodynamic Ecosystems by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.32238.10566

Ultimately, the best review available to judge the validity of any theory on mechanisms and synergies comes with the real time contrast between previous assessments and present conditions.

Imagery and Methodology


Nowadays, there are many divisions between disciplines due to the isolated nature of their specific language and methodologies. I might not use the right vocabulary for all the fields which I discuss, or the right data or the right reasoning. But when nobody is able to offer a consensus over what is going on, I wonder, what is right this days?.

After leaving months, even years of time to expose my conclusions for public discussion and review, once those have no faced any criticism or arguments refuting their value, I create a pdf file and a DOI publishing them at my profile in Researchgate. In order to maintain their genuineness and legitimate innovative nature, I keep its original state so those can be compared with any copy made by any third party at any time. For your own references and review over its originality over time with respect to other publications via scientific papers and/or news reports, you can compare the publications at the blog and researchgate with the records archived:


This work is protected under Intellectual Property laws licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.)

EGU discussed open science in 2017. GDB4 – Is Open Science the way to go?”. Min 27. The currency of data and data parasites. Min 35 Creative commons license. Min 45 Data Sharing and rules of engagement. min 56 Q&A Data Citations and Credit on producing data) https://lnkd.in/e89qv_Z

More related Analyses from 2018

_________

Miscellaneous

‘Professors eat their own young’: how competition can stifle good science

There is often more pressure for scientists to work against each other than together – but why?

https://www.theguardian.com/science/blog/2018/jan/29/professors-eat-their-own-young-how-competition-can-stifle-good-science

_______________

About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Data policy The products processed by "Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD" are made available to the public for educational and/or scientific purposes, without any fee on the condition that you credit "Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD" as the source. Copyright notice: © Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD 2013-2019 orcid: orcid.org/0000-0001-8685-0206 and the link to its source at diegofdezsevilla.wordpress or permanent DOI found at Reearchgate. Should you write any scientific publication on the results of research activities that use Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD products as input, you shall acknowledge the Diego Fdez-Sevilla's PhD Project in the text of the publication and provide an electronic copy of the publication (d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com). If you wish to use the Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD products in advertising or in any commercial promotion, you shall acknowledge the Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Project and you must submit the layout to Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD for approval beforehand (d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com). The work here presented has no economic or institutional support. Please consider to make a donation to support the means for making sustainable the energy, time and resources required. Also any sponsorship or mentoring interested would be welcome. Intellectual Property This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! For those publications missing at the ResearchGate profile vinculated with this project DOIs can be generated on demand by request at email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com. **Author´s profile: Born in 1974. Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my work previous to 2013 as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After 12 years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, in 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my own line of research. In the current competitive scenario, in order to demonstrate my capacities instead of just moving my cv waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I decided to invest my energy and time in opening my own line of research sharing it in this blog. In March 2017 the budget reserved for this project has ended and its weekly basis time frame discontinued until new forms of economic and/or institutional support are incorporated into the project. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this platform and at LinkedIn has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my achievements and that the Intellectual Property Rights generated with the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in similar lines of research. **Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome as well as any approach exploring professional opportunities.** In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2019, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects, don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access and DOIs found at the Framework and Timeline page and ResearchGate. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2018. Filling in or/and Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/ ***
This entry was posted in Energy Balance, Extreme climatic events, Filling in, Influence of Continentality, Polar vortex and Jet Stream, Solar activity, Water vapour and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink.

4 Responses to Persistent Mixing Dynamics in Atmospheric Circulation Generates a Seasonal Transition Marked by Kinetic Processes, Exothermic in Nature (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)

  1. Pingback: Energetic Pulses in Atmospheric Circulation Unsettle Our Climatic Scenarios (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

  2. Pingback: Rayleigh–Taylor instabilities in Atmospheric Circulation. Follow-Up on Atmospheric Dynamics and Climatic Implications (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

  3. Pingback: Climate. A Matter of Perspective (Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

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