6 Years Anniversary on a new Theory on Climate and Atmospheric Developments: “Facing a decrease in the Gradients of Energy in Atmospheric Circulation.” By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.

Posted on October 21, 2020 by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

6 Years Anniversary on a new Theory on Climate and Atmospheric Developments: “Facing a decrease in the Gradients of Energy in Atmospheric Circulation.” By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.

3D IR, 850 Temp and 250 Wind Speed 15 Oct 2020. Graphic composition and design by D. Fdez-Sevilla PhD

Designed for best view in desktop format.
(previous: Climate. A Quick Exercise on Theories and Data (Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Registered in pdf at Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.10575.51363)
By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD (c) Biologist PhD in Atmospheric Biology. Publications registered with DOIs at Researchgate with orcid.org/0000-0001-8685-0206. CV english and español. Resume English. Resumen Español, Interdisciplinary Skills applied in the line of research presented.- Index for all analyses published. – Shares and Feedback at LinkedIn
Publons: https://publons.com/researcher/3387860/diego-fernandez-sevilla/
Licencia de Creative CommonsEsta obra está bajo una licencia de Creative Commons Reconocimiento-NoComercial 4.0 Internacional. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

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In 2014 the state of debate on climate was describing the atmospheric developments based on a global progressive warming linking a warm eq Pacific with warm anomalies around the world and a broken polar vortex with the cold anomalies seen. The observed raise in temp at the Arctic was called Arctic Amplification described as a release of heat at the Arctic which would have an amplified impact over Mid-Latitudes.

That year 2014 I analysed all those links and presented my approach in several publications offering an alternative explanation where warm and cold anomalies developed simultaneously, independently from the ENSO and the polar vortex. Capable of explaining the raise in temp at the Arctic as being driven by mid-latitudinal intrusions instead of being a driver of them, creating a wobbly polar jet stream and an intensified instability across latitudes and altitudes. In all, a process of global mixing enhanced by an increase of free energy in circulation inducing a decrease in the differential of energy gradients between latitudes and altitudes.

My position opposite from mainstream did not receive criticism but neither public support. Consequently, I was left on my own waiting for real-time developments to actually validate or disprove my approach. Your Verdict?

October 21, 2014 New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4859.3440

November 14, 2014 Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2500.0488

November 19, 2015 Following the Behaviour of the Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Registered in pdf with DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.22052.58246

Follow-up on previous Analyses

People will take sides on climate change for as long as “warming” is not “global”. Could my perspective help to unify criteria?

As biologist I see a change in climate regimes shown by the alterations in the behaviour of ecosystems across latitudes and longitudes around the world. I have personally seen those changes studying the biological cycles of plants in the field of aerobiology, also in farmers seeing their livestock and plantations threatened by seasonal instability and weather extremes. I have discussed the how and the why against mainstream, pointing out that instead of a global warming or cooling we are witnessing a process of global mixing, promoting sudden contrasts in temperature and increase in turbulence through latitudes and altitudes. The conditions of the atmospheric circulation responsible lies in its enhanced thermal capacity, allowing it to carry more water vapour from equator into polar latitudes as fuelling convection that also destabilise the jet stream circulation. Meanwhile CO2 is a non precipitable gas, water traps and release E and mass, affecting thermodynamic equilibrium called climate, only managed by the (humanly decimated) capacity of natural systems to trap CO2, water, aerosols and reduce albedo.

Since the beginning of my research in 2013 I have tried to make analyses of weather events focused on identifying patterns to be assessed in a progression with #climate implications.

In order to make them part of a global peer review process, I have published those analyses in open access platforms as a blog in WordPress, posts in LinkedIn and Twitter, and also, as comments in discussions held by renowned activists in the field of climate. All easily found via a web search with my name “D Fdez-Sevilla PhD” or “diegofdezsevilla”

After several years scrutinizing the synchronicity of atmospheric dynamics, climate indexes and weather events I reached a number of conclusions all part of an interdependent chain of synergies. Some of those conclusions challenge previous assumptions followed by mainstream like the inaccuracy of using el Niño to explain heat waves in the North Hemisphere, or hurricanes, or to use the absence of Ice in the Poles to explain the melting of ice in the poles by the AA theory. Ultimately, I can use my research as an almanac to describe current events as part of a pattern. But, it could be said that I am playing safe in my own backyard. So I invite anyone to try it and share here if can/cannot find publications from previous years suitable for current events. A complete index with all publications can be found at the home page of this blog diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com

 Some examples:

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Theories and Expected Scenarios on Climate and Weather

(Climate. A Quick Exercise on Theories and Data (Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Registered in pdf at Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.10575.51363)

In research, what it is relevant it is not always what it is New, but what doesn´t get old. The relevant research is the one that it survives the pass of time becoming validated by the real time developments implied.

One stage of research comes when looking into offering something New; New data, New interpretations, New methods, making “the News”, being the First … And then, once the “New” has been offered, it is all about confirmation, re-evaluation, validation, review and application.

In my line of research, at one stage I have offered New interpretations on climatic developments adopting New points of view addressing New synergistic interactions delivering New Conclusions and Implications in weather patterns, atmospheric circulation and biotic performance.

In the framework presented throughout the line of research here published (and researchgate) it has been considered “Climate” as being defined by the amount of energy free to do work. In other words, energy free to promote weather events. Accordingly, in my research I define Climate by the amount and state of energy in circulation, and Weather by the use of this energy.(ref)

Consequently, with the definition applied for Climate and Weather, my definition of Climate Drift is:

“the deviation from equilibrium of the conditions allowing the perpetuity of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in a micro and macro ecosystem. This situation can be due to changes in any component of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes can be either a change in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality or rates in the flows of energy pre-established OR/AND the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components/forces and energy sinks or sources in any part of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance.”

Ultimately, the theoretical proposal part of the present line of research (ref2013 and ref2014) points out that an increase in the amount of free energy contained at the Meridional atmosphere (Equator and Mid Latitudes) will expand into higher latitudes (into the Poles) and altitudes (e.g. Sudden Stratospheric Warming) thanks to an enhanced thermal capacity of the atmosphere due to CO2 forcing using water vapour as the carrier transporting and releasing such extra pool of energy. Such increase in mixing dynamics will move towards decreasing the differential gradients of energy between latitudes and altitudes. In other words, an increase in Rayleigh–Taylor instabilities.

North Hemispheric circulation Atlantic 23 May 2016 by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

In 2014 I shared my conclusions studying atmospheric dynamics and their Climatic implications with the public media and specific Scientists by email. Among all the silence received one voice replied to my call for feedback. I was told by a lead scientist in climatic developments, Prof. Jennifer Francis that;  “The topic you’ve written about is extremely complicated and many of your statements have not yet been verified by peer-reviewed research.” The absence of available arguments to refute my research, instead of recognising my accomplishment, was filled with an excuse (not yet been verified by peer-reviewed research), and even questioned my understanding of the state of the research, knowledge of atmospheric dynamics and not enough analyses supporting my statements.

Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Reply to Prof. Jennifer Francis (February 2015) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1975.7602/1

In a following stage I have re-shared all those previous “New assessments” to be contrasted against real time developments being unfold in the next years.

The conclusions discussed throughout all the analyses performed in the line of research presented in this blog can be summarised as:

  • The ENSO is not a driver of convective forcing over the NH,
  • Convective forcing from Mid-latitudinal towards the Arctic circulation has wear off the gradients of temperature generating a strong Polar Jet Stream.
  •  Arctic warming occurs through atmospheric intrusions from Mid Latitudes,
  • The collapse of the Polar Jet Stream has opened Arctic circulation to Mid-Latitudinal circulation intrusions allowing Trans-Arctic circulation between Pacific and Atlantic Basins.
  •  The global Temperature measured is the resultant of mixing patterns in the atmosphere,
  • Therefore an increase in mixing dynamics creates a pause in temperature raise,
  • An increase in mixing dynamics show an increase in convective forcing,
  • Convective forcing is the work resultant from an increase in atmospheric energy being incorporated in free state,
  • The incorporation and spread of energy in free state into the atmosphere is carried and released by water vapour
  • An increase of water vapour in atmospheric circulation requires an increase in the thermal capacity of the atmosphere
  • The process of enhancing the thermal capacity of the atmosphere comes by increasing the concentration of GHGs, conc of aerosols and land surface albedo.
  • Several processes carried out by human activity are linked with the previous assessment: human activity reduces the capacity of the biotic environment to fix energy from free state into inert state by reducing biochemical processing and storage (CxHxOx photosynthesis and biomass) and increases atmospheric concentrations of GHGs by releasing CO2 and H2O into the atmosphere. Also, land use and cover transformations increase albedo, industrial activities increase aerosols and the compartmentalization of water affects water cycles.
  • In a thermodynamic system the energetic pool is the sum of the amount of energy in free state capable of doing work, and the energy fixed in an inert form as part of mass. The amount of energy in free state is proportional to the amount of energy fixed in inert form as mass (E=mc2). The release of energy from its inert form increases the amount of energy in free state to do work. Energy is not created, neither destroyed. The transformation of the three phases of the environment forced by human activities, gaseous (atmosphere), liquid (water cycle) and solid (land use and cover), increases the amount of energy in free state capable of promoting all forms of work; convective forcing, strong winds, solid and liquid precipitation, lightning, dust storms, heat waves, cold displacements, and ultimately, and increase in atmospheric mixing in altitude and across latitudes.

The Scenario that my analyses describe to be expected was already published in September 2015, and real time developments should be the proof of concept that validates or invalidates them

A Climate “Between Waters” (Trans-Arctic circulation) (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla). Registered in pdf at Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1697.5847

Ultimately, if this theory is right and weather patterns are incorporating water vapour into Polar latitudes, it would affect:

    • The strength of the Polar Jet Stream becoming wobbly from the bottom up, from tropospheric circulation forcing instead of from the stratospheric Polar vortex, (more here)
    • Introduction of water vapour into Arctic Polar latitudes would decrease temperature gradients in the Pole reducing ice and snow cover, (more here)
    • that would induce ice melting which in turn would affect SST and Oceanic circulation in the Atlantic and Pacific. That would explain the cold anomaly in SST in the North Atlantic, thus the AMOC and global thermohialine circulation going around the Antarctic and arriving at the Pacific.(more here)
    • Arctic Polar masses of air getting warmed up would become involved in translatitudinal circulation from the Atlantic and the Pacific through the Arctic, in a breathing like cycle. That would open a new channel for balancing gradients of atmospheric pressure between the atmospheric masses of air above both Oceans. That would explain the synchronicity between Low pressures observed in the North Atlantic and North Pacific,(more here)

Arctic Dynamics Breathing IN-OUT by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

Atmospheric Dynamics in the Arctic. Breathing IN&OUT. Total Precipitable Water circulation patterns over the North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans on the 13th June 2015 and 7th Sept 2015. Images generated by Nullschool.net from NOAA NCEP/GFS. The days chosen for this images have been selected to represent the conditions mentioned. The periodicity of the two scenarios is variable and it is not represented by the lap of time between the dates. This work is registered and protected by authorship laws.

Arctic Dynamics IN-OUT Diego Fdez-Sevilla

Atmospheric Dynamics in the Arctic. Breathing IN&OUT. Water Vapour circulation patterns over the North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans on the 29th August 2015 and 7th Sept 2015. Images generated by Satellite GOES8 WV. The days chosen for this images have been selected to represent the conditions mentioned. The periodicity of the two scenarios is variable and it is not represented by the lap of time between the dates. This work is registered and protected by authorship laws.

    • An interconnection between Atlantic and Pacific atmospheric circulation through the Arctic would affect Equatorial winds. That would have an impact over the distribution of SST being dominated by them, being the most relevant the ENSO.(more here and here)
    • Furthermore,  new channels breaking the restriction of keeping warm masses of air bellow Polar circulation would release the thermodynamical limits for equatorial latitudes to absorb water and heat, therefore, increasing thermal conductivity towards upper latitudes. That would explain heat waves moving upward in latitude.(more here and here)
    • At the same time, incorporating the possibility for subtropical circulation to occupy the volume of space at Polar latitudes would allow the global circulation to absorb more energy without steep increases in temperature thanks to the extra volume added to be occupied.(more here)
    • An homogenization in the amount of energy carried in the atmosphere by water vapour would induce a decrease between gradients of energy. That would allow atmospheric events to persist in location and time due to the reduced capacity of the atmosphere to dissipate its energy.(more here)
    • The amount of energy being accommodated by the atmosphere would behave like electricity, being tamed by the capacity of the surroundings to absorb and conduct it. But, like a short circuit, the energy contained in the atmosphere, could overwhelm the capacity for the surroundings to cope with it in a smoothly manner, triggering abrupt discharges from energy in latent heat form carried by the water vapour, into potential energy carried by the masses of water in form of hail and  rain, and kinetic energy generating strong winds. All those forms of energy capable of decimating crops, houses and even killing animals as we have seen in some videos in this post.(more here)
Follow-up: Atmospheric Dynamics. Foreseeable, At The Moment. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) July 19, 2016 Registered in pdf at ResearchGate with DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.14079.41127
June 23, 2017 Seasonal Outlook. June 2017 (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Registered in Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25428.91528

A New Pattern in Atmospheric Circulation drives towards an “unpredictable” New Climatic Scenario (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Registered in pdf at Researchgate with DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.31673.62567

The Hurricane Lane arriving at Hawaii last week was something plausible, foreseeable and eminent. And even further than that, it might become frequent.

Based on previous observations, the conditions of the SST at the Arctic have differ between years and yet, the intrusions of water vapour from Mid-Latitudinal circulation have been a constant as well as the kinetic dynamics at the Arctic have kept momentum through the horizontal and vertical profiles, disproving the argument purposed and demonstrating the value of previous conclusions  achieved in the line of research here presented:

“Mid latitudinal convective forcing dominates Arctic Dynamics.”

“Following the current line of study we are witnessing the evolution of a climatic regime reacting to pressures defining a calendar in a chain reaction following phases.”

After the “Warming phase” We are in the phase “Heat Into Motion”.

Weather, Climate and Atmospheric Conditions

In my research I propose that if  we  look at Climate as the amount and state of energy in circulation, and Weather by the use of this energy, the type of changes that we find in weather events can be used to understand the drivers behind those Atmospheric Dynamics, and ultimately, the implications from those drivers building climatic conditions.

May 2020. Siberia experiences an extreme Heat wave that melts permafrost jeopardising the stability of buildings and infrastructure foundations. It marks the beginning of the Melting Ice cover over the Arctic in the region even before the summer starts.

Related analyses: February 2018. Arctic Warming as a Result of Convective Forcing by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD  Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34551.73125

27 July 2020. Hurricane Douglas passed over Hawaii

March 2018 Visualising Wind and Convective Forcing Driving Climatic Dynamics. Follow-up 14 March 2018 by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD  Registered Pdf at ResearchGate  DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34233.06249
January 2019 Energetic Pulses in Atmospheric Circulation Unsettle Our Climatic Scenarios (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)

30 July 2020. A powerful storm has emerged and settled for days over the Arctic in July 2020. What I have to say about it is not new, and that in itself, being able to use arguments from years before this has happened to address the “why’s”, “how’s” and “therefore’s”, is what makes all the difference.

But moreover, this is not an isolated weather event. This comes also with an extremely wobbly behaviour of the Jet stream in both poles, an absence of climatic indexes correlating, a process of Stratospheric Sudden Warming over Antarctica, an anomalous warm SST at Arctic, excessive precipitation at Indic basin and a vibrant ITCZ over the African continent while the ENSO and the AO show their insignificant implications as drivers by being neutral.

 

December 17, 2016 Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20129.81760 https://wp.me/p403AM-1jd
January 20, 2017 Climate and Indexes. A dashboard of Confusion. Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25016.96007 https://wp.me/p403AM-1mz
June 29, 2018 Seasonal Transitions under a New Climatic Scenario. Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18385.22881 https://wp.me/p403AM-1Xi
January 2020 Arguments, Discussion and Points of View on Climate. The relevance of building a “Framework” to find “Nexus points” offering “Proof of concept” over “Real Time Developments” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20604.16007

August 2020. “The Met Office has issued a “danger to life” warning for a number of areas across the UK starting from Monday, August 10. Some homes and businesses could be destroyed by incoming flood, lightning and hailstones, forecasters have warned. Following scorching temperatures over the last week, and the third hottest day ever recorded on Friday, July 31, a yellow weather warning for “torrential” rain to hit several areas of Britain has been given. Source here.

As the time moves forward, more atmospheric dynamics show to develop independently from Sun´s angle of incidence. Becoming frequent and repeating patterns throughout all seasons. See an index with all previous analyses at Home page

10 and 11 Aug 2020 Airmass over Europe

2019, 22nd 26th July Airmass over Europe

Related Animations from previous publications:

February 2015 Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Reply to Prof. Jennifer Francis () Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1975.7602

March 2015 Drops of Weather. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Registered in pdf at ResearchGate  DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.33796.63360

June 29, 2018 Seasonal Transitions under a New Climatic Scenario by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Registered pdf DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18385.22881
March 3, 2019, A pattern of change in the atmosphere beyond considering global warming or cooling. That is, global mixing. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Registered DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.32693.73445

11 August 2020. Rayleigh-Taylor instabilities in circulation over the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins.

January 2016 Atmospheric Dynamics And Shapes (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Registered at ResearchGate with DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.35973.65765

2018. 3rd August 2018 (Left) 27th July 2018 (Right)

11th August 2020. Synchronicity between Low pressures observed in the North Atlantic and North Pacific.

Previous analyses 2014 & 2015 Cited at “Climate. New Insides/Insights on old concepts (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Publication Registered in pdf at Researchgate  DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4211.8001 December 23, 2015 and follow-ups.

One YEAR Atlantic-Pacific interconnection in atmospheric circulation by Diego Fdez-Sevilla M

Cited at “Climate. New Insides/Insights on old concepts (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Publication Registered in pdf at Researchgate  DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4211.8001
December 23, 2015 and follow-ups.

More recent related atmospheric scenarios throughout 2020 linked to weather phenomena analysed in the present line of research:

Water vapour conditions at NH 11 Aug 2020

Water vapour moving into Arctic Latitudes 17 April 2020

Three cyclonic developments forming simultaneously at the East Pacific. Earliest  analysis related Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D. September 2016 DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.19874.63684 (see follow-ups at index in the homepage)

A corridor of wind connecting Pacific and Atlantic basins across the Arctic. Earliest analysis related Sept 8, 2015 Trans-Arctic circulation between Pacific and Atlantic Basins. A Climate “Between Waters” Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1697.5847 (see follow-ups at index in the homepage)

ENSO variations without mayor impact over Polar Jet conditions and atmospheric developments. Earliest analysis related Could It Be El Niño The New “Wolf” Coming? Discussing SST ” El Niño ” and Climatic Developments. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) (see follow-ups at index in the homepage)

In an atmosphere overcharged with energy, the resilience for the storms to dissipate will increase. But furthermore, their paths will become less influenced by the contrasts between ocean SST and land continents. Their formation, paths and behaviour would become more independent from surface variables such as SST and more related with the disturbances generated by the collapse of the Arctic circulation. Storm Cristobal moving away from oceanic waters and into the continental mass of North America in June 2020 (see related analysis from October 7, 2016 Equatorial Dynamics. A conversation between Joaquin and Matthew (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.13720.08960)

 

Atmospheric Dynamics influence Polar Conditions. Year 2020

In the recent months in 2020 we have seen in June the permafrost melting over Siberia due to a persistent heat wave. The source of that heat can not be traced from the absence of Arctic sea ice cover as the theory of Arctic amplification would suggest since the Arctic summer had not even started yet. Actually, the permafrost melted as well as the ice cover in the region, suggesting a midlatitudinal forcing carrying heat within the airmass reaching such high latitudes.

Since 2013 I have offered analyses that aimed to identify environmental scenarios including shifts in atmospheric circulation, weather patterns and their implication over climatic developments. In this line of research it has been proposed a description over current developments for local and global dynamics. Such description offers an explanation for the development of warm and cold anomalies as Rayleigh-Taylor instabilities induced by an increase in the atmospheric energy load at mid-latitudes, carried by water vapour forcing intrusions over the Poles, promoting an increase in global mixing resulting in a wobbly Polar Jet Stream. This explanation contrasts with the theory of Arctic Amplification which in order to explain warm anomalies over the Arctic proposes heat accumulated in Arctic open waters due to a reduction of ice cover, yet to be explained, suggesting a polar driven anomalous jet stream.

Related previous analyses:

October 21, 2014 New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4859.3440
February 10, 2015 Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1975.7602/1
November 17, 2016 Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.24688.35848
December 17, 2016 Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20129.81760
February 28, 2018 Arctic Warming as a Result of Convective Forcing by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD  Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34551.73125
May 16, 2019 Rayleigh–Taylor instabilities in Atmospheric Circulation. Follow-Up on Atmospheric Dynamics and Climatic Implications (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Registered DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.26791.80805
June 11, 2020 The Weather of a Climatic System Collapsing (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)

Predictability in Weather Developments

What is expected in weather developments is changing like the boiling frog expects to be fine if the water instead of raising in temperature just starts moving by convection. For the same air with a settled temperature, we feel it warm if is air without movement, warmer if is humid instead of dry. But if this air starts moving, we feel the wind chill factor of removing heat from our sensors giving a feeling of colder temperatures than really are. Despite all my efforts to offer this simplification in order to see it expected once it is described, yet, it hasn’t been any simple for me to be acknowledged when such approach goes against mainstream settled scientists. The scientific mindset is slowly changing as the frog, but not without an enormous resistance to accept new directions. See the following publication from 2015 and place the timing between what was expected then and what is expected now and who drives the expectations in the mainstream debate. Then look at the timeline of my analyses in the home page February 10, 2015 Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1975.7602/1 https://wp.me/p403AM-to

Actually, what is expected varies depending on the approach followed to study the links between weather phenomena and atmospheric changes under pressure. The first approach followed suggested an homogeneous global warming pattern throughout seasons and latitudes. It did based on focusing the attention on averaged temperatures. When we see anomalous cold conditions makes people wonder how that approach can be right. That is why I share my analyses following a different approach, suggesting an increase in heterogeneous conditions marked by sudden changes in atmospheric fluctuations all part of a pattern described beyond just temperature averages. We are seeing weather developments normally associated to spring or autumn in summer. From heat to frozen precipitation as hail in just few days. Sun’s angle of incidence is becoming less relevant under the increasing force of kinetic energy accelerating dynamics of global mixing across latitudes and altitudes, triggering storms, lighting, hail and strong winds as much as humid heat waves towards the poles and cold spells into midlatitudes as Florida or the Sahara desert. My research find current weather expected, but many others expect only heat and dry weather

I just hope that the work that I bring in my analyses make sense to scientists as much as to laypeople and farmers in order to find consensus and break the isolation between science and society. Because we all need to understand what is happening not only in the data, but also in the field. The lesson learned from my time carrying data retrieval from setting up experimental equipment and performing laboratory analysed is that the meaning of the data is always attached to the equipment set-up, the methodology followed to analyse it and the nature of the database built. So the real in field scenario is always more complex than the data set built to describe it. So people living in the field can interpret the scenario with variables not reflected by the scientific equipment and viceversa. Throughout my publications, my effort has been put on offering interpretations based on analyses that combine in-field accessible and perceptible information with more sophisticated data representation of variables as imagery and charts. We need to reach consensus between science and all parts of society cause it affect us all and all chains of production from industry to feedstock.

Rapid changes in all components of the environment linked with the management of the energy received from the Sun enhance atmospheric dynamics. Changes in the composition of the atmosphere, changes in Land cover through deforestation, mining, agriculture and urbanization, changes in river flows, lakes, dams and aquatic biota, changes in soils structure dismantling regenerative cycles, run-offs, changes due to degradation by contamination for environments in the aquatic and inland natural systems recycling materials, purifying air and water. When all natural systems stop assimilating the energy received from the Sun, that energy not absorbed by natural cycles goes into the atmosphere, enhancing the power driving its dynamics. Ultimately promoting a rupture in its stratified structure across latitudes and altitudes. That brings instability throughout seasons, jeopardising biotic cycles responsible for; the stabilization of soils, food production, air and water quality as much as reducing temperatures since natural biological organisms work as insulation cover reducing albedo and back radiation.

Conclusions

“Diego, The topic you’ve written about is extremely complicated and many of your statements have not yet been verified by peer-reviewed research. It is an exciting and active new direction in research, though, so I encourage you to pursue it. To get funding or a job in this field, however, will require a deeper understanding of the state of the research, knowledge of atmospheric dynamics (not just suggestive examples and anecdotal evidence), and statements supported by published (or your own) analysis.” 17th of December 2014, Prof. Jennifer Francis. (full email exchange here)

The conclusion reached in the line of research carried out since 2013 can be summarized as follows:

Based on more than 200 analyses, the data exposed and the discussions carried out, the conclusions reached support the idea of that instead of a process of global warming or cooling there is an invigorated process of global mixing. The energy behind this increase in work is being carried and spread by water vapour throughout the atmosphere thanks to its enhanced thermal capacity promoted by an increasing concentrations of non condensible GHGs like CO2 in conjunction with an increase in albedo due to Land Cover and Use, compaction of soils, compartmentalization of water flows, and most of all, a reduction in the capacity for the biotic system to absorb perturbations. Furthermore, our societies have become so used to handle obsolescence in all products to the extent of living in complete oblivion from a reality where the amount of the resources consumed grow proportionally/exponentially with/as the waste/pollution generated, speeding up the process of transformation in composition, structure and concentration of the components part of the thermodynamic ecosystem built upon the synergistic interactions between soils, gases and water.

Major differences with mainstream research are addressed throughout the study presented defending that the ENSO is not a driver but instead it is driven by, that the Polar vortex configuration is not the cause for but the result of, that SST are a consequence and not the trigger, and ultimately and more importantly, that the biotic component in the planet is the only responsible for taming our climate, avoiding a complete release of energetic discharges accumulated from Sun´s exposition.

The mere identification of seeing: numbers of trees decreased over 46% from wild ecosystems being affected through time due to agriculture, increased levels of urbanization, deforestation, same for soil degradation, decrease in O2 conc, and an increase in GHG, can not be left out of the equation when considering what it is and what it is not “natural variability”, and the future expected for our thermodynamic planetary system.

Our planet is getting fat on GHG, lacking O2, space to grow natural ecosystems and capacity to fix and store energy. Biology integrates all components in an ecosystem, yet it is missing in climatology assessments.

The main conclusion from the present study researching synergistic interactions between all transformations seen over the Liquid, Gaseous and solid phases of our global Environment indicates that anthropogenic activity is forcing our environment into A System Becoming Dominated By Free Energy. (pdf Registered at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18509.13289)

Our Planet is made from the combination of all the organisms in a given area and the abiotic elements which affect them. An ecosystem is an open system because it can exchange energy or materials with other ecosystems. Earth is a closed system with respect to nutrients and chemicals, but open with respect to energy. There is an underestimated synergistic relationship between biogeochemical energy flows and those identified in weather patterns and atmospheric dynamics. For too many years it has been considered that the Earth is a garden populated by “elements” offering colourful pleasure and comfort. In fact, the biochemical processes undertaken by our ecosystems function as the most advanced piece of technology known by Humans, responsible for the quality of our air, waters and soils, as much as the sole and unique mechanism capable of interacting with the thermodynamic pressure imposed by the constant exposure of the planet to Sun’s radiation. Until we see the real function of biological processes as climate regulators we will not realise in how much trouble we are.

The biotic component of our environmental system is the only one capable of interacting against thermodynamic entropy, against instability. And for as long as Human activity can not replicate such mechanisms in equilibrium with the resources consumed, it might be time to think about domesticating Human Activities instead of following the obsession for Domesticating Natural Behaviour and Geoengineer our Weather. 

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The Anthropogenic Link

As a biologist myself I find intriguing to see that our environment is predominately not described in biological terms.

Einstein made it very clear, our environment is a relative proportion of free energy and fixed energy in mass. There is one process in our system fixing E into mass, and one releasing E from mass. The “relative efficiency” of both processes is what is defining the behaviour of our thermodynamic environment.

There is an interference from human activities changing the composition and structure of the three phases of the environment:

  • solid; land cover and use affects albedo and changes in evapotranspiration rates due to biotic disruptions on wild population functionality,

https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/land-use-change-compilation-by-diego-fdezsevilla-publication-domesticating-nature.png?w=624&h=228

From May 7, 2015 publication Domesticating Nature. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Researchgate  DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36812.51848

  • the liquid phase through alterations over the water cycles, distribution of water bodies, and humidity of soils as well as affecting circulation patterns due to coastal deterioration and deformation, but also, indirectly due to alterations in the composition of the inert and biotic matter in the Oceans due to pollution and modifications in acidification and salinity related with atmospheric composition and thermal properties.
  • and gaseous phase due to alterations in the composition of the atmosphere from GHGs as well as aerosols, altogether affecting its thermodynamic behaviour.

The deviation from equilibrium of those conditions disrupt the perpetuation of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in the micro and macro ecosystem.

The definitive link between human activities and atmospheric dynamics is under constant discussion since climatic developments are mainly approached from the field of physics.

However, the direct link between Anthropogenic activities and climatic developments are found in biological terms with thermodynamic implications:

Human activity has reduced CxHxOx compounds and increased free CxOx+HxOx.

Furthermore, anthropogenic activities release Energy from breaking structures (C-C) while biochemical processes assimilate energy fixing it into stable structures (CxHxOx).

Anthropogenic activity is simultaneously, releasing energy from a biochemically fixed state into the Planetary System’s Pool, at the same time that, it adds thermoactice compounds as CO2 and H2O. But furthermore, through this activity of constant transformational and processing, human activities are also debilitating the functionality of the biochemical processes capable of absorbing such perturbation, the endogenous ecosystems.

Einstein and his developments were mainly applied in physics due to the use that it was made of his work with the aim to manipulate energy in times of conflict, or to understand space. The equation is simple E=mc2. The language of physics has dominated the discussion over physical developments since then and it has been established as the logical translation of climatic developments. However, in the current times, the role of scientific understanding demands to move beyond the barriers of language, either between semantic cultural languages and between disciplines.

Being myself a Biologist involved in Atmospheric dynamics applying physics to explain such a complex subject as it is climatic evolution might seem like the tale of the child claiming that the Emperor has no clothes.

And yet, it seems to me evident that a thermodynamic system as it is our planet, can not scape from the most basic and powerful understanding of our contemporary scientific evolution. If E=MC2, and the anthropogenic activity is increasing the transformation of M into Energy in the system (from burning Mass from fossils and vegetable components, as well as by liberating other forms of energy such as gravimetric in Dams, Solar, transformation of raw materials, etc,) such transformation rate will move the balance in the thermodynamic behaviour of the whole system, and the rate of such deviation from equilibrium will be related with the speed at which the transformation rate between E/M is performed: M>(c)2

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Final Remarks

An increase in the amount of energy being in “free” state means that kinetic processes will increasingly dominate thermodynamic processes, inducing a transition in our Seasonal and Climatic regimes from being driven by Orbital Positioning to be driven by more erratic Kinetic processes. (see related analysis)

Examples of processes releasing ENERGY FROM ANTHROPOGENIC ACTIVITIES

From previous publication “Domesticating Nature” (2015)

Atmospheric Oxygen Levels

Atmospheric Oxygen Levels are Decreasing Oxygen levels are decreasing globally due to fossil-fuel burning. The changes are too small to have an impact on human health, but are of interest to the study of climate change and carbon dioxide. These plots show the atmospheric O2 concentration relative to the level around 1985. The observed downward trend amounts to 19 ‘per meg’ per year. This corresponds to losing 19 O2 molecules out of every 1 million O2 molecules in the atmosphere each year.

Scripps O2 Global Oxygen Measurements The Scripps O2 Program measures changes in atmospheric oxygen levels from air samples collected at stations around the world. This sampling network provides a global and hemispheric perspective on oxygen variability. The Scripps O2 Program is based at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at La Jolla, California and is under the direction of Professor Ralph Keeling.

_____________Imagery and Methodology_________

Nowadays, there are many divisions between disciplines due to the isolated nature of their specific language and methodologies. I might not use the right vocabulary for all the fields which I discuss, or the right data or the right reasoning. But when nobody is able to offer a consensus over what is going on, I wonder, what is right this days?.

The line of research presented in this blog describes a scenario where things happen for a reason, and where there are reasons for things to happen. No model offers that much. Meanwhile “reasons” explain probabilities, models use “probabilities” to let you figure out the reasons.

After leaving months, even years of time to expose my conclusions for public discussion and review, once those have no faced any criticism or arguments refuting their value, I create a pdf file and a DOI publishing them at my profile in Researchgate. In order to maintain their genuineness and legitimate innovative nature, I keep its original state so those can be compared with any copy made by any third party at any time. For your own references and review over its originality over time with respect to other publications via scientific papers and/or news reports, you can compare the publications at the blog and researchgate with the records archived:

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About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Data policy The products processed by "Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD" are made available to the public for educational and/or scientific purposes, without any fee on the condition that you credit "Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD" as the source. Copyright notice: © Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD (year) orcid: orcid.org/0000-0001-8685-0206 and the link to its source at diegofdezsevilla.wordpress or permanent DOI found at Resarchgate. Profile and verified scientific activity also at: https://publons.com/researcher/3387860/diego-fernandez-sevilla/ Should you write any scientific publication on the results of research activities that use Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD products as input, you shall acknowledge Diego Fdez-Sevilla's PhD Project in the text of the publication and provide an electronic copy of the publication to the author (d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com). If you wish to use the Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD products in advertising or in any commercial promotion, you shall acknowledge Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Project and you must submit the layout to Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD for approval beforehand (d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com). The work here presented has no economic or institutional support. Please consider to make a donation to support the means for making sustainable the energy, time and resources required. Also any sponsorship or mentoring interested would be welcome. Intellectual Property All articles and imagery are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! For those publications missing DOIs at the ResearchGate profile vinculated with this project, DOIs can be generated on demand by request at email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com. **Author´s profile: Born in 1974. Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Atmospheric Biology and Aerosols Dispersion (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my work previous to 2013 as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, in 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my own line of research. In the current competitive scenario, in order to demonstrate my capacities instead of just moving my cv waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I decided to invest my energy and time in opening my own line of research sharing it in this blog. In March 2017 the budget reserved for this project has ended and its weekly basis time frame discontinued until new forms of economic and/or institutional support are incorporated into the project. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this platform and at LinkedIn has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my achievements and that the Intellectual Property Rights generated with the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientists involved in similar lines of research. **Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome as well as any approach exploring professional opportunities.** In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects, don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access and DOIs found at the Framework and Timeline page and ResearchGate. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2020. Filling in or/and Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/ ***
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2 Responses to 6 Years Anniversary on a new Theory on Climate and Atmospheric Developments: “Facing a decrease in the Gradients of Energy in Atmospheric Circulation.” By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.

  1. João Danune says:
    October 23, 2020 at 01:21

    Hola Caro amigo Diego buenas noches muchas gracis por compartir os teus estudos mui interessante solo ahora te contseto por que tenho andado mui coupado con los trabjos de reisiones de la ipbes, desta vez prometo que irei ler a partir deste fim de semana com mucho cuidado e despuz harei algunas consideraciones ainda este mês de outubro ou no inicio de novembro, me gostari de tener tu permisso se yo posso repartir en el linkedin, me dirás depois, para rematar tengo acompanho com muito dolor la siuaciiode la pandemis en espanha toda, es mui doloroso, aqui tambien la situacion no es buena, mas un poucoo mejor que en espanha, te dessejo mucha salud para ti y tu familia y continuacion de tu investigacio, ya ahoar espero que tenhas conseguido un trabajo continuo porque lo mereces, vamos continuando en contacto, quee tenhas un bon fin de semana, saludos cordiales desde Lisboa, João Danune

    On Wed, Oct 21, 2020 at 9:55 AM Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. wrote:

    > Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. posted: ” 6 Years Anniversary on a new Theory on > Climate and Atmospheric Developments: “Facing a decrease in the Gradients > of Energy in Atmospheric Circulation.” By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. In 2014 > the state of debate on climate was describing the” >

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