Climate and Indexes. A dashboard of Confusion. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)


Climate and Indexes. A dashboard of Confusion between State and Attitude. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)

(Last update 20 Jan 2017. 19.00 UTC. click over the images for a larger version. Full size upon request by email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com) (Climate and Indexes. A dashboard of Confusion between State and Attitude. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD). DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25016.96007)

Recently NOAA has released the annual assessment over the Temperature Anomalies recorded worldwide for the year 2016.

The conclusion offered is that “with the contribution of eight consecutive high monthly temperature records set from January to August, and the remainder of the months ranking among their five warmest, 2016 became the warmest year in NOAA’s 137-year series.

                      

Several interpretations are offered trying to justify the present scenario.

Among many explanations and opinions offered there is a main stream line of thought which I find confusing.

In one hand, when considering Warming events in the Arctic, it has been suggested that the absence of Ice could be the cause behind it. In other hand, when the warming is considered at global scale, it is considered that the El Nino anomaly recorded through 2015 is behind the global warm up.

Both arguments implicitly assume that the absence of ice at the North Pole and the temperatures recorded at the Equatorial Pacific are sources of heat. Sources great enough to warm up Arctic circulation in the first case, and even the whole planetary atmosphere in the case of the ENSO.

That is confusing. We know that heat, or molecular kinetic energy, is not created, and neither destroyed by any form of “dissipation” (as I have seen argumented in other forums), only transformed between energy forms  or transferred in location through matter. So, what confuses me is the lack of attention justifying the origin of the source for the heat measured in both events and the properties required to hold it, in both cases: Arctic warming and ENSO fluctuations.

If the Arctic gets abnormally warmer due to warmer waters, how warm have those waters to be in order to not only keep warm through winter but, at the same time, loose heat warming up an atmosphere which due to its dry composition should not even absorb any heat?

If the water at the Equatorial Pacific gets warmer than normal, how warm have to be those waters in order to be the source of enough heat to affect global temperatures?

But over all, if those events can be considered localised sources of heat, how can the planetary system accommodate enough kinetic energy to feed those local events while delivering simultaneously global temperatures above the mean? And all of that without showing variations in the radiation net balance between emitted and received?

I have looked into this postures from many points of view as researcher and I can not understand such interpretation. El Nino as well as the Arctic warming process,  are “the consequence” of a thermodynamic process. Like a rock in the middle of a river will deviate its course “only” when the level of water flow gets below a certain level. If the river flow is high enough it will move around and above the rock. In my simile, indexes are like rocks which appear and disappear with the fluctuations of thermodynamic pulses.

El Nino appears and disappears as the thermodynamic pulse in circulation evolves. And its presence is just an indication of a much more powerful process being active. And the same for the Arctic warming, NAO, etc.

I take all the anomalies being monitored as lights flashing in a dashboard. They are not the trigger of a process but the “sign” giving us the indication of a previous process reaching a threshold.

dashboard-of-confusion_by_diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

Many points of view see the climatic indexes as switches in a switchboard. As if those indexes represent switches activating processes.

I am confused by such point of view.

It is like seeing a temperature indicator in the dashboard of your car and blame the indicator for the increase in pressure and stress over your cooling system. Something is happening to your engine so it gets warmer than normal and the indicator is flashing once a threshold is reached so you might become aware of the consequences implicating all the other systems related with the engines functionality. Trying blame the indicator will lead you to look for answers into fixing the behaviour of a bulb, way far from finding the real problem. Trying to fix the cooling system will not resolve the problems of temp due to over stressing the performance of your engine neither. Like trying to find correlations and teleconnections between climatic indexes.

Understanding how the lack of ice warms up the Arctic, or how a warmer Eq. Pacific warms up the global temperature leads a way of understanding dividing lines of research in separate headings. One person looks into the NAO, other person into the ENSO, another into MJO, another into Solar, … It is my belief that understanding what makes the conditions for the Arctic to avoid ice formation simultaneously with warmer atmospheric conditions, as well as for the ENSO to deliver high sea surface temperatures despite loosing energy through evaporation and wind shear, as well as the properties of the fluid through which Solar radiation is distributed and held through the atmosphere, might find an answer which unifies all those process.

So, what is causing your engine to overheat leads to understand all the other symptoms.

There are processes which are being monitored and others which are working with no methodology capable to identify them. And even more, many of the processes being monitored show measurements for which there is a lack in their understanding, far from knowing what they represent beyond higher or lower than the previous mean.

dashboard-vector-used-by-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

States and Attitudes

The state of our environment can be found to not vary enough for us to detect any “statistically significant” change, however, there is an “attitude” associated with it. An attitude which makes it more or less reactive towards any influence.

Something seems clear. The planet we know is being transformed in all the mediums part of the global system, solid (land), liquid (ocean) and gaseous (Atmosphere). And with this transformation, there is an added pressure over all the energy flows, cycles and balances which compile our climatic regimes, at local and global scale.

It is not enough to see a light flashing to know that something is happening. It is required to address what this light represents in order to untangle the meaning of the dashboard which we have in front of us.

From my research I defend that the process unfolding is part of a general increase in the mixing ratio between the different energy systems triggered by the transformation of the environment.

This process influences a quick reactive atmospheric circulation in the first place, followed by a slower pattern on the water fluid systems. All those processes are affected by the contrast between oceanic and land masses, their reactive composition and structure, making it critical to understand the impact that activities transforming those reactive characteristics (chemically, biologically, physically, thermodynamically, …) carry adding pressure in the transformation of the mediums part of the global system, solid (land), liquid (ocean) and gaseous (Atmosphere).

Based on my research, the main feature showing an ongoing process stronger than any climatic index is the wobbliness of the Polar Jet Stream with and without El Nino periods.

March 7, 2015 Drops of Weather. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
November 10, 2015 Starts Raining Drops of Winter at Mid-Latitudes. The new Autumn? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
November 19, 2015 Following the Behaviour of the Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)

ENSO 2015-2016

tlon_heat-gifPolar Jet Stream and Arctic intrusions over Europe, Feb 2015 and Jan 2017.

2015_2017-ncep_gfs

Cold events over Europe. 5 Feb 2015 and Jan 2016

Polar Jet Stream Feb 2016.

Also based on all previous assessments, the mixing zone between the Mid latitudinal masses of air and those of the Arctic has increased towards Arctic latitudes over the Atlantic ocean creating an increased exchange of masses of air through the Polar jet stream.

Such mixture of masses of air with such a contrast in temperature and water vapour content makes it totally heterogeneous, creating an uneven mixture between latitudes and longitudes. Furthermore, I believe that the NAO is not longer an oceanic latitudinal differential feature but instead the driven force comes from an increased effect imposed by the contrast between oceanic and continental basins. So Scotland and west Sweden have received milder conditions than the Mediterranean “warm” coast of Spain which has received more snow than the northern Atlantic side.

May 14, 2015 A roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
May 13, 2016 Another roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 13, 2015
May 26, 2016 Atmospheric Circulation and the Mixing Zone. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
July 1, 2016 Atmospheric mixing. Indian Basin June 2016 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)
August 26, 2016 Aug 2016 Follow-up on previous assessments. Atmospheric Dynamics, Temperature Displacements, Atmospheric Mixing (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)
September 14, 2016 Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)
October 13, 2016 Global Mixing in Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.)

Pacific atmospheric dynamics, storm tracks and formation:

Similarly in 2016 as in 2017, the Pacific Ocean shows atmospheric dynamics enabling storm developments to move all across from the west side to the East side towards the North American continent.

Jan 2016

Jan 2017

17-jan-2017-ir-composition-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd_m

Primer Effect

Priming is an implicit memory effect in which exposure to one stimulus (i.e., perceptual pattern) influences the response to another stimulus.

If the level of transformation over our ecosystems reaches the point of increasing the sensitivity of our environment to react against changes over internal and external forces, we will face new challenges ahead making useless any previous knowledge  built upon any type of previous standardised stereotypes.

We might see variations in Eq Pacific with no matching atmospheric patterns, the difference in atmospheric pressure over the latitudes at the North Atlantic (NAO) will no longer be predominant being overtaken by variations over difference in atmospheric pressure between the Ocean and the Continental European continent. And Solar activity will become a stronger player for a system driven by new rules dictated by the new composition and structure.

The challenge ahead is to understand that our environment might keep its state of a multicomponent system of green, brown and blue, but it might change entirely its attitude. (It might will or it might have already started.)

Those arguments offering a sense of relief when seeing green colours on satellite images I would like to suggest to think on what is the composition of the picture showing the colour. What kind of ecosystem is the green area able to hold and for how long? Is it populated or just an empty space of grass? How much biomass is being created and stored and for how long?

Satellites rely on echoes, surfaces emitting or reflecting wave lengths.  And that can easily make us to chase tails. Temperature is not the problem and neither the answer. Is the matter which traps, holds, carry and release this heat and all the other forms of energy performing “work” throughout all events which we see in the weather patterns and atmospheric dynamics.

Seasonality Spring 2016. Continuous follow-up on my previous research assessing atmospheric dynamics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) 2016 March 03

Atmospheric Circulation and the Mixing Zone. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) 2016 May 26

Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) 14 Sept 2016

From previous publication:

Atmospheric dynamics Jan 2017

jan-8-temp-anom

17-jan-2017-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd_m

Atmospheric conditions defining the tendency for water to be in solid or liquid state at surface level. 17 Jan 2017. Analysis based on data from NCEP. Graphs created by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD

two-hemisp-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd-17-jan-2017-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd_m

Atmospheric conditions defining the tendency for water to be in solid or liquid state at surface level. 17 Jan 2017. Analysis based on data from NCEP. Graphs created by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD

8-nov-2016-oceans-wind-cyclonic-pattern-alignment-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

8 Nov 2016 VWind 10m NH. Graph created by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. Data NCEP.

vwind-10m-29-dec16-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

29 Dec 2016 Northward Wind 10m NH. Graph created by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. Data NCEP.

Well, that is just my opinion. Always open for discussion here, at LinkedIn and at my email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com.


Author’s Disclosure Declaration

For those unaware of the content offered in this blog I might have to issue a warning: Handle with care. Also with the product obtained from scientific analytical thinking there are traces of personal and professional “passion”, by-products obtained from “original and unpeered grey matter juice” originated from “independent critical thinking”. Also sometimes the packaging might be rough around the edges due to its “unfunded nature”.

4 years ago I joined a discussion which made me realise how much knowledge was settled on the past, built upon past conventions and unable to give answers about present developments in all parts of our environment. From the impact from GMOs, plastics, soils degradation, atmospheric composition, land use and cover, water cycles, … I had addressed scientifically unanswered questions before doing my PhD so I decided to give it a go and to offer my take over those gaps. It has been a pilgrimage to become aware of how much faith and fear is put on scientific publishing above raw understanding and discussion.

I do not know how far this blog will go, however, it represents the assessment of a global process and I expect that past posts will become a description of continuous present for the next years.

Altogether, the body of work which represents the line of research presented in this blog is composed by more than 170 pieces, covering data analyses and conceptual discussions. All those different discussions and assessments presented here build together a single concept. The format applied is the result of making a big effort trying to apply simplistic approaches with the aim to allow a multidisciplinary access. Since the topics treated in my publications have implications for many sectors in the academic and not academic world, with the aim of allowing my research for open review, there is also the objective of allowing access to a multisectorial and multidisciplinary audience sharing interest.

Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.

For a more profound discussion over my assessments and analyses as well as constructive feedback, please use my email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com.

My agenda is simple, I am in transition looking for either funding to grow the research published in this blog or for a job position in any field in which my assets are valued. Behind my research there is nothing more, nothing else than to showcase my capabilities doing what I like, research. I am a methodologist. I don´t look at the color of the result obtained, only at the suitability of the method and the coherence of the result. As I have said before, if I am wrong on my assessments and conclusions, it will be better for all, and my work would showcase my capabilities anyway. A CV shines the goals obtained by anyone, but by publishing here my research, I expose myself and my work to public judgement. There is a difference between being naive and raw. If you see the difference you will understand better my work and my personal position.

The aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. So any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time of at least a month from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found refuting the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.

In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will help me in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.

Perspective

(This post is part of a more complex piece of independent research. I don´t have funding, political agenda or publishing revenues from visits. Any scientist working in disciplines related with the topics that I treat in my blog knows how to judge the contribution that my work could potentially add to the state of knowledge. Since I am in transition looking for a position in research, if you are one of those scientists, by just acknowledging any value you might see from my contribution, would not only make justice to my effort as independent researcher, but ultimately, it will help me to enhance my chances to find a position with resources to further develop my work.

I believe that the hypothesis that I have presented in previous posts in this blog (here, hereand here) could help to understand present and possible future scenarios in atmospheric circulation. However, this is an assessment based on observation which needs to be validated throughout open discussion and data gathering. So please feel free to incorporate your thoughts and comments in a constructive manner.

If you feel like sharing this post I would appreciate to have a reference about the place or platform, by private or public message, in order for me to have the opportunity to join the debate and be aware of the repercussion which might generate d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

This work is protected under Intellectual Property laws licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.)

Since October 2013 I have been publishing pieces of research studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.

Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License,  WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.

More assessments presenting chronologically the line of research published in this blog can be accessed in the category Framework and Timeline.

For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out, updated 09th Dec 2016):

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About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Citing This Site "Title", published online "Month"+"Year", retrieved on "Month""Day", "Year" from http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my previous work as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After couple of years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, I find myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my research. In the present competitive scenario, instead of just moving my cv and wait for my next opportunity to arrive, I have decided to invest also my energy and time in opening my own line of research showing what I am capable of. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this blog has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my work and the intellectual rights represented by the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in this line of research. Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome. In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2017, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2017. Filling in or Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/
This entry was posted in Energy Balance, Extreme climatic events, Filling in, Finding out, Influence of Continentality, Polar vortex and Jet Stream. Bookmark the permalink.

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