Atmospheric Dynamics. Foreseeable, At The Moment. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)
File name: Atmospheric Dynamics Foreseeable by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.pdf. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.14079.41127
In one previous discussion at LinkedIn I said that I was concern about the expansion of mid-latitudinal developments to the South.
Those atmospheric dynamics seem to keep happening describing a similar pattern. Heat moves up in latitude through Europe generating the highest records in the last years, with and without El Niño conditions.
Now, through the Southern winter, we can see also anomalies in tempt entering Antarctica from the closest parts to the continents, America and Africa.
I can only repeat what I have said in previous assessments in atmospheric developments. The mixing ratio is increasing and it is not going to follow the same pattern through time. But now it seems foreseeable.
In a previous publication in this blog I pointed out already that it is time to be vigilant about seeing repeated what has happened in previous years.
- What if, the relevant bit lies hidden on identifying the pattern behind similarities instead of trying to match anomalies? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted 3 Sept 2015.
As part of the discussion I pointed out the little attention given to see the development of three tropical systems at the same time in the same location over the Pacific with and without El Niño conditions:
Last year Atacama desert suffered bad flooding in 2015. I discussed it as part of a scenario driven by the influence of atmospheric dynamics due to synergies beyond the ENSO:
- SST Anomalies and Heat Waves. Are They Not All Just Heat Displacements? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted 16 October 2015
Nine days ago, Larry Cosgrove a colleague from my network at LinkedIn, pointed out:
“Very odd weather for a winter’s day in Iquique, Chile. While there has been no rain at Diego Aracena International Airport, some parts of the city and areas to the north and east have seen high winds and fairly strong thunderstorms! On the edge of the Atacama Desert, this is usually one of the calmest and driest cities in the world.”
I believe that the weather over Chile, cold spell over West South Europe with strong winds, thunderstorms, lightening and hail together with the Typhoon in Taiwan are linked in a pattern:
And this pattern dominates the atmospheric circulation dictating the behaviour over the ENSO.:
- Climate and Data. Drinking From the Source (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) posted 5 June 2015
- Discussing Climatic Teleconnections. Follow Up On My Previous Research (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on 21 October 2015
- Could It Be El Niño The New “Wolf” Coming? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Posted on 11 December 2015
- Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Posted on 22 March 2016
One example on this comes with the interpretation of these two following images from SST anomalies, in two different years, with opposite ENSO index. Which one do you think is the result of El Niño and which one La Niña? Beyond that, which of both represents colder conditions in the north hemisphere?
One question remains.
There is one question in the mind of many: how much of the atmospheric dynamics that we study are related to human activities?
Since I write in my blog on climate I want to say that I started my own line of research just because I didn´t want to follow the random paths dictated by others and their data so I would not leave them make a fool of myself and my beliefs in this subject. So if reading what I write you find non sense in my assessments and conclusions, at least, those would be my own.
The situation as stands nowadays it is pretty similar to the cold war. Was it real or just a mere strategy to manipulate through fear and ignorance. As much as I look at it, it is impossible to have the technology and knowledge to study worlds in space but not having a position over what is going on in the closest one. Can the development of a single specie affect the global climate, ask paleoclimatologists. Can we be one of those species? Do we have the capacity of transformation required? Yes, sooner or later. And we better figure it out sooner than later.
There is a reality behind the political agenda driving today’s scientific debate which is taking its toll on our common social health state. Many members of our society do not feel secure on that they can share openly their thoughts in this matter. We can start with climatologists, general scientists and also meteorologists.
Actually, I am not even sure of that if by saying my opinion I might be damaging my chances to find a job being myself an Environmental Biologist. Not only meteorologists are under “the weather” produced by this non sense. Even a simple researcher seeking a job position, like me, has to be very cautious with what or how says what he thinks in this subject. Why it does not happen when talking about food and cancer?
If you want to have a simple point of view on the matter of human impact over atmospheric dynamics lets look at some simple chemistry.
In some of my earliest posts I used the process of cooking as an analogy to address the problems behind modelling climatic shifts and synergistic interactions. And when I say cooking, I mean something more… demanding than a pizza.
The order of the factors/ingredients affect the product
The behaviour of water is none lineal
- “The Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything” is … 42 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted 15 May 2014
It is water vapour, a greenhouse gas, what cooks the aliments.
Dry food requires water to be cooked.
But if you ask me what is the most relevant analogy of all considering the impact from human activities over atmospheric and climatic developments, I would take, the impact of just adding salt into water.
Thanks to this small contribution, water can retain more heat in liquid form (the new boiling point is increased) and also its electric conductivity increases. Similar, with the introduction into the atmosphere of GHGs and aerosols, the amount of heat that it can retain increases as well as its thermal conductivity. But furthermore, by releasing land cover from vegetation, it also increases thermal conductivity from the ground since it gets hotter from sun’s radiation than when it is covered with vegetation.
The combination of these simple factors, allow the atmosphere to become more thermodynamically conductive. Which in turn allows more different forms of energy to be absorbed and displaced. This is something which I consider to be happening based on the previous research and assessments which are part of this blog.
Peer reviewed articles supporting previous publications in the line of research published in this blog:
Since 2014 most of the assessments published in this blog can not be verified by peer review articles due to the absence of them applying similar approach (see email exchange with Jennifer Francis in full here). However, some peer reviewed publications start to appear supporting these assessments:
- Climate and Hadley Circulation. Research Update May 2016 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Posted 6 May 2016
- The Butterfly Effect on Arctic Circulation. Peer review verification on previous assessments (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Posted 10 June 2016
- What if, the relevant bit lies hidden on identifying the pattern behind similarities instead of trying to match anomalies? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted 3 September 2015. (“Regional climate change and national responsibilities”. James Hansen and Makiko Sato. Published 2 March 2016. Environmental Research Letters, Volume 11, Number 3. http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034009)
Answer to the SST images above follow this link
The aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. So any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time of at least a month from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found discussing the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.
In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com
The performance of my work as independent researcher, with no institutional and economic support, is limited by my lack of access to resources and economic stability. So far what I have published in this blog is what I have been able to offer with those limitations.
If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will overcome the limitations of my cv in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.
Since October 2013 I have been studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.
Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License, WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.
- New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on October 21, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-k3
- Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on November 14, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-mt
- State of the Polar Vortex. Broken? From 29 Nov 2014 to 5th Jan 2015 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla). Posted on November 29, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-o7
- Gathering data to make visible the invisible (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on December 22, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-pN
- Probability in the atmospheric circulation dictating the Weather (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on January 15, 2015. http://wp.me/p403AM-rm
- Meteorological Outlook Feb 2015 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on February 7, 2015. http://wp.me/p403AM-sU
- Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Posted on February 10, 2015. http://wp.me/p403AM-to
- Drops of Weather. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 7, 2015
- Steering climate´s course (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 27, 2015
- Climate. Looking at the forest for the trees (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 9, 2015
- Matching Features Between Land Surface and Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 23, 2015
- Domesticating Nature. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 7, 2015
- A roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 14, 2015
- Talking about climate (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 12, 2015
- News from an Ecosystem (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 20, 2015
- In climate it is becoming Less probable to not have a High probability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 29, 2015
- Drinking from the source (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 5, 2015
- Communication takes more than just publishing thoughts. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 9, 2015
- Extreme climatic events, implications for projections of species distributions and ecosystem structure (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 18, 2015
- The scope of Environmental Science and scientific thought. From Thought-driven to Data-driven, from Critical Thinking to Data Management. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 26, 2015
- Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Drift. Are we there yet? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 2, 2015
- Lateral thinking. From Micro to Macro (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 4, 2015
- Something for the curious minds. Climate and Streamlines (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 17, 2015
- Solar Activity and Human Activity, Settling Their Environmental Liability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 24, 2015
- Atmospheric composition and thermal conductivity? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)August 6, 2015
- Latitudinal barriers and typhoons (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)August 13, 2015
- The Earth is Ticking (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)August 20, 2015
- What if, the relevant bit lies hidden on identifying the pattern behind similarities instead of trying to match anomalies? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)September 3, 2015
- A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla).September 8, 2015
- Sensing Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)September 22, 2015
- InFormAtion. The “Act” of “Giving Form” to “Knowledge” (by Diego fdez-Sevilla)September 30, 2015
- Arctic Intake of Water Vapour (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 7, 2015
- SST Anomalies and Heat Waves. Are They Not All Just Heat Displacements? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 16, 2015
- Discussing Climatic Teleconnections. Follow Up On My Previous Research (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 21, 2015
- Follow-up on Arctic circulation 30 Oct 2015 ( by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 30, 2015
- There is Ice or Frost In Antarctica? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)November 5, 2015
- Starts Raining Drops of Winter at Mid-Latitudes. The new Autumn? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)November 10, 2015
- Press release. Ask NASA (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)November 12, 2015
- Following the Behaviour of the Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)November 19, 2015
- What Is Wrong With The Concept “Bio”? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)November 26, 2015
- Energy. Looking For Sources of Something We Waste. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)December 3, 2015
- SOILS. The Skeleton Holding The Muscle On Our Ecosystems (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)December 9, 2015
- Could It Be El Niño The New “Wolf” Coming? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)December 11, 2015
- Climate and weather December 2015. Another Polar Vortex another Heat Wave? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)December 18, 2015
- New insides on old concepts (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)December 23, 2015
- Atmospheric Dynamics And Shapes (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)January 13, 2016
- European weather. Old News, Same News? by Diego Fdez-SevillaJanuary 15, 2016
- Observational events on atmospheric dynamics. A follow-up assessment over the theory proposed over Energetic gradients by Diego Fdez-Sevilla.January 29, 2016
- North American Weather. Old News, Same News? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)January 20, 2016
- Observed Atmospheric Dynamics. A follow-up assessment over the theory proposed on Energetic gradients by Diego Fdez-Sevilla.January 29, 2016
- (updated 11-18 Feb2016) Polar Vortex, Old News, Same News? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)February 4, 2016
- Forecasting Past Events. Snow Coming to Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)February 12, 2016
- Do You Believe in the Value of Your Work? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)February 23, 2016
- Forecasts For Ecosystems (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)February 25, 2016
- Seasonality Spring 2016. Continuous follow-up on my previous research assessing atmospheric dynamics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 3, 2016
- Tangled in Words. Atmospheric Dynamics, Stefan Boltzmann Calculations and Energy Balance (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 10, 2016
- Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 22, 2016
- Plant growth, CO2, Soil and Nutrients. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 31, 2016
- Atmospheric Dynamics, GHG’s, Thermal Conductivity and Polar Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 6, 2016
- Feedback. Have Your Say. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 14, 2016
- Plant an Idea and Then a Tree… But Which Ones? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 22, 2016
- (updated 28/April/2016) Severe weather warning 27 April 2016 USA (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 28, 2016
- Research Update May 2016 (by Diego Fdez-sevilla)May 6, 2016
- Scientifically Challenged (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 12, 2016
- Another roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 13, 2015May 13, 2016
- Our Environment. One Vision and Many Thoughts. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 20, 2016
- Atmospheric Circulation and the Mixing Zone. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 26, 2016
- When Temperature Becomes Something Else (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 30, 2016
- Settled Science (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 9, 2016
- The Butterfly Effect on Arctic Circulation. (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 10, 2016
- Who has the right and the responsibility to discuss Climate as a topic of debate? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)June 20, 2016
- Snap shot of a day 22 June 2016. Follow-up on previous research over atmospheric dynamics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)June 22, 2016
- Atmospheric mixing. Indian Basin June 2016 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)July 1, 2016