Atmospheric Dynamics. Foreseeable, At The Moment. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)


Atmospheric Dynamics. Foreseeable, At The Moment. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

In one previous discussion at LinkedIn I said that I was concern about the expansion of mid-latitudinal developments to the South.

I have explained in this blog my assessments over the North hemisphere as part of a process in expansion from mid-latitudes. And the changes in seasonality associated.

Those atmospheric dynamics seem to keep happening describing a similar pattern. Heat moves up in latitude through Europe generating the highest records in the last years, with and without El Niño conditions.

2016 July 18 Max temp Diego Fdez-Sevilla

Temperature 18 July 2016. Several areas with warnings issued due to high temperatures.

Now, through the Southern winter, we can see also anomalies in tempt entering Antarctica from the closest parts to the continents, America and Africa.

GFS T2_anom 19 July 2016 Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD

I can only repeat what I have said in previous assessments in atmospheric developments. The mixing ratio is increasing and it is not going to follow the same pattern through time. But now it seems foreseeable.

In a previous publication in this blog I pointed out already that it is time to be vigilant about seeing repeated what has happened in previous years.

As part of the discussion I pointed out the little attention given to see the development of three tropical systems at the same time in the same location over the Pacific with and without El Niño conditions:

2014 Trio Low P Pacific

2015 Trio Low P PacificWell, guess what:

Lows Pacific July 2016 Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD

Last year Atacama desert suffered bad flooding in 2015. I discussed it as part of a scenario driven by the influence of atmospheric dynamics due to synergies beyond the ENSO:

Nine days ago, Larry Cosgrove  a colleague from my network at LinkedIn, pointed out:

“Very odd weather for a winter’s day in Iquique, Chile. While there has been no rain at Diego Aracena International Airport, some parts of the city and areas to the north and east have seen high winds and fairly strong thunderstorms! On the edge of the Atacama Desert, this is usually one of the calmest and driest cities in the world.”

I believe that the weather over Chile, cold spell over West South Europe with strong winds, thunderstorms, lightening and hail together with the Typhoon in Taiwan are linked in a pattern:

And this pattern dominates the atmospheric circulation dictating the behaviour over the ENSO.:

One example on this comes with the interpretation of these two following images from SST anomalies, in two different years, with opposite ENSO index. Which one do you think is the result of El Niño and which one La Niña? Beyond that, which of both represents colder conditions in the north hemisphere?

ENSO 2 YEARS Comparison Hemispheres Diego Fdez-Sevilla

One question remains.

There is one question in the mind of many: how much of the atmospheric dynamics that we study are related to human activities?

Since I write in my blog on climate I want to say that I started my own line of research just because I didn´t want to follow the random paths dictated by others and their data so I would not leave them make a fool of myself and my beliefs in this subject. So if reading what I write you find non sense in my assessments and conclusions, at least, those would be my own.

The situation as stands nowadays it is pretty similar to the cold war. Was it real or just a mere strategy to manipulate through fear and ignorance. As much as I look at it, it is impossible to have the technology and knowledge to study worlds in space but not having a position over what is going on in the closest one. Can the development of a single specie affect the global climate, ask paleoclimatologists. Can we be one of those species? Do we have the capacity of transformation required? Yes, sooner or later. And we better figure it out sooner than later.

There is a reality behind the political agenda driving today’s scientific debate which is taking its toll on our common social health state. Many members of our society do not feel secure on that they can share openly their thoughts in this matter. We can start with climatologists, general scientists and also meteorologists.

Actually, I am not even sure of that if by saying my opinion I might be damaging my chances to find a job being myself an Environmental Biologist. Not only meteorologists are under “the weather” produced by this non sense. Even a simple researcher seeking a job position, like me, has to be very cautious with what or how says what he thinks in this subject. Why it does not happen when talking about food and cancer?

If you want to have a simple point of view on the matter of human impact over atmospheric dynamics lets look at some simple chemistry.

In some of my earliest posts I used the process of cooking as an analogy to address the problems behind modelling climatic shifts and synergistic interactions. And when I say cooking, I mean something more… demanding than a pizza.

The order of the factors/ingredients affect the product

The behaviour of water is none lineal

It is water vapour, a greenhouse gas, what cooks the aliments.

Dry food requires water to be cooked.

But if you ask me what is the most relevant analogy of all considering the impact from human activities over atmospheric and climatic developments, I would take, the impact of just adding salt into water.

Thanks to this small contribution, water can retain more heat in liquid form (the new boiling point is increased) and also its  electric conductivity increases. Similar, with the introduction into the atmosphere of GHGs and aerosols, the amount of heat that it can retain increases as well as its thermal conductivity. But furthermore, by releasing land cover from vegetation, it also increases thermal conductivity from the ground since it gets hotter from sun’s radiation than when it is covered with vegetation.

The combination of these simple factors, allow the atmosphere to become more thermodynamically conductive. Which in turn allows more different forms of energy to be absorbed and displaced. This is something which I consider to be happening based on the previous research and assessments which are part of this blog.

Peer reviewed articles supporting previous publications in the line of research published in this blog:

Since 2014 most of the assessments published in this blog can not be verified by peer review articles due to the absence of them applying similar approach. However, some peer reviewed publications start to appear supporting these assessments:

Hadley Circulation:

Energy gradients:

Statistical errors:

 

Answer to the SST images above follow this link

______________________________________

The aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. So any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time of at least a month from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found discussing the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.

In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

The performance of my work as independent researcher, with no institutional and economic support, is limited by my lack of access to resources and economic stability. So far what I have published in this blog is what I have been able to offer with those limitations.

If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will overcome the limitations of my cv in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.

PerspectiveSince October 2013 I have been studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.

Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License,  WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.

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About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Citing This Site "Title", published online "Month"+"Year", retrieved on "Month""Day", "Year" from http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! DOIs can be generated on demand by request by email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com for those publications missing at the ResearchGate profile vinculated with this project. Author´s profile: Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my previous work as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After couple of years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, I find myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my research. In the present competitive scenario, instead of just moving my cv and wait for my next opportunity to arrive, I have decided to invest also my energy and time in opening my own line of research showing what I am capable of. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this blog has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my work and the intellectual rights represented by the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in this line of research. Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome. In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2017, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2017. Filling in or Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/
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29 Responses to Atmospheric Dynamics. Foreseeable, At The Moment. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

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