Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)


Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)

(ResearchGate DOI · September 2016 DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.19874.63684
A follow-up post on the present topic has been published later on Oct 13, 2016. Global Mixing in Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.))

In this publication I want to link the present atmospheric conditions over Europe with those addressed in previous publications from past years. The main aim of this is to highlight the persistence of a pattern which I believe is relevant to be considered in the debate on atmospheric dynamics and climatic drifts.

In order to strengthen the continuity of my research I want to unify those publications sharing similar assessments so they verify each other when placed side by side.

From previous publication:

“My assessments point to conclude that the mixing ratio between masses of air being warmed up at equatorial and mid-latitudes has increased altering the stratification of the atmosphere in its 3 dimensions.

As a result, some atmospheric events become more erratic in their behaviour and seasons are dominated by localised masses of air instead of the Solar angle of radiation linked with the position and tilt of the Earth.”

That would explain why locations in Northern latitudes might see warmer conditions than those in the south. Or even high contrasts between locations in the same latitude between west and east as we have seen at North America.

From previous publication:

The possibility of facing a weakening Jet Stream due to a decrease in the Thermal contrast between the Subtropical and Polar atmospheric regions has created scenarios in which the variations in meteorological conditions for a particular location can come without a transition. One week is freezing cold and the next pretty warm. How can that happen?

The large north-south waves in the jet stream (Rossby waves) are occurring more frequently and may be increasing in amplitude. Larger waves can cause cool air to be pushed toward the equator when the waves dip to low latitudes, and warm air to be pushed toward the poles when the waves swing back. For areas on the ground below these waves, that translates into wild and unseasonable temperature extremes, sometimes called “weather whiplash.”

Such scenario can be seen nowadays when we look at the graphic representations created to simulate the prediction for the Western European meteorological conditions in the period between the 3th of March and the 14th of March 2015.

Here I have created a video with the sequence of images generated for this period so you can appreciate the forecast describing the behaviour of the phase/limit where both masses of air get in contact and how it looks like a fluid releasing “drops of weather”.

The implications raising from such type of atmospheric behaviour are yet to be fully understood. To begin with, the possibility of having sudden intrusions of masses of air inducing extreme changes in meteorological variables might affect the life cycle of the biota since the most of it, plants and animals, follows changes on Temp and Humidity suffering behavioural, hormonal and physiological alterations. Also it must be considered the rapid respond to those variables from species with a quick metabolism. Many of which, insects and fungi, might suffer blooming rates of growth coinciding with a vulnerable stage in the development of other species like crops and wild plants. This scenario opens questions which I believe are worthy to be included in a debate about “the possibility of its increasing frequency in the near future”, also discussed in previous posts  (UPGRADED 11 March2015) Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla.)

From previous publication:

The wobbliness of the North Hemispheric Polar Jet Stream made the news in 2013/14 as the result of a broken Polar Vortex, dropping masses of cold air at mid-latitudes, bringing winter weather all along their paths. In 2014/15 the Jet Stream kept wobbling, however this time, without a persistent Polar Vortex broken. I called them drops of weather and discussed the significance of their formation and the implications.

We are at the transition from Summer to Winter 2015/16. At the Iberian peninsula, even at Canary Islands and through the Mediterranean sea, we have started to see such drops of weather to appear once again. The sequence between cold and warm periods is creating wide contrasts in temperature. It seems that it is starting to rain drops of winter and that this must be the new Autumn to come.

In the following video I present an animation with images taken from satellite (Eumetsat Airmass) between the 20th Oct 2015 and 9 Nov 2015 showing the behaviour of the Jet Stream and the recent masses of cold air moving at Mid Latitudes. I also gathered some images showing the forecast built from GFS model for pressure at 500mb and temperature showing the expected behaviour of the Jet Stream from 9th Nov to 20th Nov. In total, between observation and forecast, there is a 30 days period.

From previous publication:

Previous assessments in this blog over the North hemisphere have discussed dynamics which seem to describe a process in expansion from mid-latitudes. With this process there has been also a discussion over the associated changes in seasonality.

Those atmospheric dynamics seem to keep happening describing a similar pattern. Heat moves up in latitude, as seen through Europe, generating the highest records in the last years, with and without El Niño conditions.

2016 July 18 Max temp Diego Fdez-Sevilla

18 July 2016 Max Temp Iberian Peninsula South Europe

Present conditions September 2016

The pattern described by the atmospheric dynamics assessed through the line of research published in this blog foresees abrupt changes in temperature, in short periods of time, due to the enhanced mobility of masses of air through the atmosphere.

Accordingly, on the 4th of September 2016 the South of Europe saw a sudden increase in temperature carried by an African mass of air reaching record maximas:

2016sept-06-maximum-temperatures-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

Max Temperature 06 September 2016. Several warnings were issued due to high temperatures.

Just 7 days later, on 13th and 14th September 2016, a cold mass of air has dropped from higher latitudes bringing the opposite trend in temperatures (and associated weather events), but with the similar steep slope.

2016sept13-variation-in-maxima-temp-from-previous-day-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd2016sept14-variation-in-maxima-temp-from-previous-day-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

Meanwhile, as Spain is taking the cold blast, at higher latitudes in equal longitude, UK reaches the maximum temperature of the year.

  • 13 September 2016. Hot weather warning as temperatures reach a record-breaking 32C at Heathrow. By Sarah Knapton and Lydia Willgress. telegraph.co.uk/news

indice  Tuesday was the hottest day of the year so far, the Met Office has confirmed, as temperatures rocketed past 34C (93F). A temperature of 34.4C was recorded at Gravesend in Kent, making it the hottest September day since 1911. Heathrow and Kew Gardens followed as they both recorded temperatures of 32.8C at lunchtime.

Large parts of England were placed on heatwave alert, the first time Public Health England has ever issued a warning in September, with hot and humid weather forecast for the next few days. Heading into Wednesday the Met Office said it would be a drier day across the country, with another warm day expected in the South East – where the mercury could reach into the low 20s or up to 30C (86F). However, there was a striking North/South divide as parts of northern England and Scotland suffered bad flooding.

Atmospheric Patterns

The pattern in atmospheric dynamics seen in the present days over Europe are not new:

From previous publication:

From previous publication:

I believe that the most visual representation of having the atmosphere increasing its thermal conductivity would be seen throughout the wobbling state of the Polar Jet Stream. As part of my research since 2013 I have been following-up the state of the Polar Jet Stream. This is the latest animation that I have made over the period February 2016 at the Western Europe-East Atlantic.

Actual Pattern

The graphical representation of the numerical model GFS describes the movement of masses of air at 500mb showing the intrusion of cold masses of air into Southern latitudes and warm masses of air into Northern latitudes.

europe-gfs-from-10sept-2016-temp500mb

GFS forecast on Heights and temp variations at 500mb starting Sept 10th to 16th

The satellite images from Eumetsat allow us to see the motion of the masses of air and their temperature moving over Europe replicating the same similar pattern seen and discussed through this blog in the recent years.

drops-of-weather-sept-2016-diegto-fdez-sevilla-phd

This pattern “carries” warm air towards high latitudes, being incorporated into Arctic circulation, and “pushes” cold air out of its way coming into lower latitudes.

gwl_composite_eu-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd-www_diegofdezsevilla_wordpress_com h500_slp_eu-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd-www_diegofdezsevilla_wordpress_com

gfs-t2_anom_2016-09-10

gfs-preciitable-water-2016-sept-10-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

 

Discussion

Based on what it has been discussed in previous assessments over recent atmospheric developments the mixing ratio is increasing and, even though I believe that it is not going to follow the same pattern through time, at the moment, it seems foreseeable.

In a previous publications in this blog I pointed out already that it is time to be vigilant about seeing similarities on what is happening in recent years. Not based on waiting for big magnitudes to be measured behind things happening but also based on which magnitudes have to be in place in order for things to not happen as well as the mere existence of “mild” features and patterns repeating in time and location.

In the recent months we have seen already some atmospheric events which, in isolation, they only represent the broad range of variability that our environment can generate.

We can observe what type of atmospheric events have happened before and compare with those which are happening now.  Like looking at tree rings in order to identify similarities throughout time in biological productivity, we might see that similar events have happened before. So, maybe, there is nothing new on today’s climate that it has not occurred before. However, how many trees are still alive old enough for us to study? What is the location and the level of performance for those trees? You might find trees showing past periods of similar biological productivity linked to similar temperatures and yet, I believe that it is of as much interest to look at the similarities comparing through time how many of those trees keep populating their natural ecosystems and how many ecosystems maintain their characteristics stable enough for those trees to survive.

Similarly with this idea, atmospheric events happening that have not happened in a previous “significant” period of time seem to start becoming the “trees” which define the “forest” that our understanding is trying to see. Like the tale of the “boiling frog”, we are at risk of getting our capacity for understanding “cooked” by being submerged in a forest of “big data”.

I believe that it would be important to not overlook the limitations carried within the conceptualization of our climate from being built upon numerical data. Models based on past records can only give outcomes which replicate the principles applied to build the mathematical interpretation of those past events. Therefore, like a 2D model only give predictions within the two dimensions being considered, mathematical models applied in climatic evolution, based on past data, have the limitations of transmitting into their outcomes the level of uncertainty which already carries the limited understanding on the factors and synergies considered to create the model. The perception of that every natural event is the result of inertial momentum implies the assumption of linearity for any outcome within 2D (quantity vs time). This approach restrict the capacity to predict only movements in the dimensions which have been identified as related, without considering the existence of an unidentified “third Z axis” (or more). Such kind set of mind has narrowed the interpretation of our climate to data applied to define the existence of “anomalies” based on “increase/decrease” over time. This is a two dimensional set of mind prepare to only “see” correlations in 2D. Some correlations might define one plane, some others might define other planes, and there would be a weak correlation between events and parameters defining different planes of a multidimensional environment. If our data is so “big” and “uncharacterised” that we can not see the relation between the planes describing our climate we may need to ultimately start from understanding the significance behind the singularity of each individual event in order to identify the plane described just by their existence.

When it becomes difficult to characterise the significance and relations between large amounts of data, trying to describe the behaviour of a “whole”, it should not be overlooked the significance of how many variables have to come together for each single event to develop and how many variables have to “not happen” in order for the event to develop.

As part of the discussion I pointed out the little attention given to see the development of three tropical lows at the same time and in the same location over the Pacific with and without El Niño conditions:

In 2014

2014 Trio Low P PacificIn 2015

2015 Trio Low P PacificOn July 18th, 2016:

Lows Pacific July 2016 Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD

Once again, on the 30th August 2016:

lows-pacific-30-aug-2016-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

All the small things

All the small things which are happening under the radar of major scientific attention is playing a role in a game which involves the atmospheric circulation at global scale. Not only this pattern “carries” warm air towards high latitudes, but also into higher latitudes. As a result we see how warm masses of air are “pushing” masses of cold air out of its way, coming into lower latitudes and altitudes:

And also

10hPa Temp Diego Fdez-Sevilla

Sudden Stratospheric Warming NH.

Europe Forecast Temp 500 Diego Fdez-Sevilla

NH Polar Jet Stream behaviour

Global Hemispheric Inter-Arctic Connectivity

All the patterns observed and discussed through the publications shared over the period of three years point to a interconnection between Atlantic and Pacific basins through the Arctic thanks to the wobbly Polar Jet Stream. Such mechanism generates synchronism between weather events seeing over both basins. Such eventuality was already discussed over previous publications and shows to keep happening through 2016.

700hpa-temp_wind-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd-www_diegofdezsevilla_wordpress_com

 Conclusions

As I said in the last publication:

“My assessments point to conclude that the mixing ratio between masses of air being warmed up at equatorial and mid-latitudes has increased altering the stratification of the atmosphere in its 3 dimensions.

As a result, some atmospheric events become more erratic in their behaviour and seasons are dominated by localised masses of air instead of the Solar angle of radiation linked with the position and tilt of the Earth.”

That is why locations in Northern latitudes might see warmer conditions than those in the south. Or even high contrasts between locations in the same latitude as we saw between west and east North America.

Such conclusive assessment, based on observations and analyses, serves as a progression pre-verifying the mechanisms purposed in the theory published in this blog in 2014 and following publications such as:

(update 15 Sept 2016)

Also, the present weather patterns have associated risks threatening the stability of our biological ecosystems, as it has been discussed in previous publications. This issue goes to crops and ecosystems in general. Furthermore, it also touches the synergistic interaction existent between biological processes and the thermodynamic ones, due to changes in populations changing land cover and albedo, turbulence, evapotranspiration rates, soil degradation and soil loss by water weathering, as well as bio processes involved in cloud formation and rain rates. I would like to suggest readings from previous posts addressing those aspects. There is also an entire category containing posts addressing synergies between atmosphere dynamics and “Biological productivity”, as it is called.

Posts such as:

and

(end update 15 Sept 2016)

Altogether, the body of work which represents the line of research presented in this blog is composed by 165 pieces, covering data analyses and conceptual discussions. All those different discussions and assessments presented here build together a single concept. The format applied is the result of making a big effort trying to apply simplistic approaches with the aim to allow a multidisciplinary access. Since the topics treated in my publications have implications for many sectors in the academic and not academic world, with the aim of allowing my research for open review there is also the objective of allowing access to a multisectorial and multidisciplinary audience sharing interest.

Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.

For a more profound discussion over my assessments and analyses as well as constructive feedback, please use my email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com.

My agenda is simple, I am in transition looking for either funding to grow the research published in this blog or for a job position in any field in which my assets are valued. Behind my research there nothing more, nothing else than to showcase my capabilities doing what I like, research. I am a methodologist. I don´t look at the the color of the result obtained, only at the suitability of the method and the coherence of the result. As I have said before, if I am wrong on my assessments and conclusions, it will be better for all, and my work would showcase my capabilities anyway. A CV shines the goals obtained by anyone, but by publishing here my research, I expose myself and my work to public judgement. There is a difference between being naive and raw. If you see the difference you will understand better my work and my personal position.

______________________________________

The aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. So any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time of at least a month from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found refuting the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.

In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will help me in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.

PerspectiveSince October 2013 I have been studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.

Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License,  WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.

More assessments presenting chronologically the line of research published in this blog can be accessed in the category Framework and Timeline.

For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out):

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About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Citing This Site "Title", published online "Month"+"Year", retrieved on "Month""Day", "Year" from http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! DOIs can be generated on demand by request at email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com for those publications missing at the ResearchGate profile vinculated with this project. **Author´s profile: Born in 1974. Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my work previous to 2013 as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After 12 years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, in 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my own line of research. In the current competitive scenario, in order to demonstrate my capacities instead of just moving my cv waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I decided to invest my energy and time in opening my own line of research sharing it in this blog. In March 2017 the budget reserved for this project has ended and its weekly basis time frame discontinued until new forms of economic and/or institutional support are incorporated into the project. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this platform and at LinkedIn has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my achievements and that the Intellectual Property Rights generated with the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in similar lines of research. **Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome as well as any approach exploring professional opportunities to be part of.** In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2017, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2017. Filling in or Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/
This entry was posted in Aerosols, Biological productivity, Cultural Cognition, Energy Balance, Environmental Resilience, Extreme climatic events, Filling in, Finding out, Influence of Continentality, Inland Water Bodies and Water Cycle, Open discussions, Polar vortex and Jet Stream, Water vapour and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

23 Responses to Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)

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  22. I have added a comment pointing to this publication in a thread at LinkedIn. You need to be logged in to see the other comments. Here I leave mine.

    https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6304524951064023040

    First of all I have to confess that I am totally biased by the interpretation that I have made out of years analysing atmospheric dynamics from an outsider point of view, so I can only leave for you to judge what I think about this article.
    There is a point of view missing completely in the debate of climatic developments and atmospheric dynamics. I have being writing about it in publications presented in a blog offering my own assessments and analyses based on observation in order to avoid accusations of being biased from agendas or mislead from third party publications suspected of similar fault. But also because there are no papers which I could use to support my claims, so so altogether it is for you to judge the coherence of my work.
    Everybody seems to be focused on preparedness to face a planetary global warming or cooling phase. It is like if those are the only options. And what it surprises me the most is that either phase is expected to be unidirectional and homogeneous and stratified latitudinally. Based on past glaciations, cold phases extended the surface covered by ice moving from the Poles towards the equator. But no record shows an extension of reach for cool temperatures while the pole in itself gets warmer. It seems to me that nobody is considering that there is a new scenario in our planet, an scenario where our planet has never been so bright on its shadow face. A new scenario where there is a third option from global cooling or global warming, and implies the loss of stratification in the atmosphere. I have wrote about it in my blog and discussed it at linkedin: Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing”
    https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6181896724236292096

    Like

  23. Pingback: Statistical Significance and The Scary Side of Being Mild (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

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