Equatorial Dynamics. A conversation between Joaquin and Matthew (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)


Equatorial Dynamics. A Conversation Between Joaquin and Matthew (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

As part of the line of research published in this blog I have published several assessments looking into the mechanisms driving the atmospheric circulation at the North Hemisphere and I have even looked into how those mechanisms would explain the bipolar situation in ice cover between NH and SH.

The applications of the conclusions discussed and shared would not be of relevance if they could not have any significance in understanding the developments seen in our recent past, our present and our near future.

The line of research presented in this blog is based on monitoring Climatic developments  based on observations, as it does the Copernicus program and the Space and Meteorological agencies around the globe, so the methodology in itself is already being recognised as scientifically valid and worthy by its potential contribution.

Being this research carried out by one single scientist as a piece of independent research  (without economic or institutional support) brings restrictions as well as a kind of freedom which allows the exploration of completely out of the box approaches. Despite the limitations brought by not incorporating the feedback offered by a team work or the access to more complex tools for analysis or previous studies applying same approach, the assessments presented have been shown to be verified posteriorly by scientific publications.

Being myself a cautious methodologists with scientific training, I am aware of that such circumstance does not eliminate uncertainty over the analyses which I can perform over the current developments. However, the confirmation of previous assessments by the dynamics observed through the atmosphere in the recent years, increases the level of confidence to incorporate some conclusions (from those previous assessments), even though those assessments have not been verified yet by scientific publications in assessing the current state of atmospheric developments.

4-oct-2016-satellite-global

4 Oct 2016. NASA Terra.

The atmospheric developments seen in the last days have been marked strongly by two powerful storms in two opposite sides of the Equatorial belt. One at the West Pacific (Typhoon Chaba) and another one at the Caribbean (Hurricane Matthew). And yet those are not the deepest cyclonic events present in the NH.

chart-pmsl-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

Neither are the ones expressing more power (volume/energy) when compared with the cyclonic situation over the North Atlantic and Pacific basins. And yet, these two are the ones concentrating their energy in the closest volume of space threatening conditions over land.

chart-north-wind-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

Based on previous assessments is impossible to predict the exact path and behaviour which those cyclonic storms might follow and yet, based on previous assessments, what it is expected is that their behaviour and paths will become more erratic to predict.

Based on the line of research presented in this blog I am convinced on that Arctic perturbations at the Atlantic basin (warm intrusions over the Arctic and cold at mid-latitudes) are responsible for the genesis of Tropical Systems due to alterations over the ITCZ. From there, the behaviour and paths followed by them would also be driven by more Arctic perturbations (combination of warm intrusions at the North Pacific and North Atlantic and cold at lower latitudes) inducing changes in pressure located all around their path, in front and behind their movement. At least these are part of my interpretations from my observations. There might be experts with a different analysis.

20161005-1500-multisat-ir-stitched-global-x

20161005-1800-12-dmsp_anomaly-tropics_atlbasin atlantic-basin-5-oct-2016

The models being published (spagheti) showcase the possibility of seeing the storm Matthew moving in a circle or loopback.

10-06-16-matthew-18z-spaghetti-plots

Link to .kmz file is here if you want to look at it in Google Earth yourself.

forecast-matthew-7-oct-2016

What concerns to my research is the resilience of the storm to dissipate its energy, and I am considering not only the conditions at tropospheric level but also at higher altitudes.

In the previous post in my blog I pointed out that the equator has shown to be warmed up at 50hPa.

temp50hpa-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd-www_diegofdezsevilla_wordpress_com

Altogether it will reduce the differential in the gradients of energy between the storm and its surroundings reducing the dissipation rate of its energy, allowing for it to hover keeping momentum as we have seen with other storms moving for days over the Atlantic. But also, it might coalesce with Nicole, something which nobody has talked about so it might not be possible… right?

matthew-7-oct-2016-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd radar-precipitation-7-oct-2016-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

A Conversation Between Joaquin and Matthew

The conditions surrounding their development share patterns and atmospheric conditions

15_16-sept-28-2016-polar-vortex-and-jet-stream-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

And those patterns and conditions have been previously addressed in this research

North Hemispheric circulation Atlantic 23 May 2016 by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

September 8, 2015 A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla).
January 13, 2016 Atmospheric Dynamics And Shapes (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
September 14, 2016 Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)

Eumetsat Natural Colour Diego FdezSevilla

(UPDATE and Follow-Up 10 Oct 2016)

temp-50hpa-noaa-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd-www_diegofdezsevilla_wordpress_com

ht-200hpa-anom-noaa-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd-www_diegofdezsevilla_wordpress_com

Hurricane Matthew Recap. Weather Channel.

Published Oct 10 2016 10:59 AM EDT

Matthew formed from a tropical wave that pushed off the African coast in late September. That tropical wave was dubbed Invest 97L just southwest of the Cape Verde Islands on Sept. 25.

Matthew formed near the Windward Islands on Sept. 28, 2016.

It went on to leave a path of destruction from the Caribbean to the Southeast U.S.

On Oct. 9, 2016, Matthew finally moved away from the U.S. coastline and became post-tropical.

Super Typhoon Chaba Recap

By Jon Erdman
Published Oct 5 2016 08:21 AM EDT
chaba-3oct16-himawari-night-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

Typhoon Chaba 3-oct-16 Satellite himawari

Chaba intensified to a super typhoon for a time on Oct. 3. The U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimated maximum sustained winds had reached 145 knots, roughly 165 mph, the equivalent of a Category 5 tropical cyclone at that time.

Wind gusts up to 134 mph (59.7 meters per second) were clocked on the Japanese island of Kume as the eastern eyewall passed through late Monday night, local time.

Chaba is only the third Category 5 equivalent super typhoon to track within 65 nautical miles of Kume Island, in records dating to the 1960s, and is the strongest on record, there.

______________________________________

Altogether, the body of work which represents the line of research presented in this blog is composed by 165 pieces, covering data analyses and conceptual discussions. All those different discussions and assessments presented here build together a single concept. The format applied is the result of making a big effort trying to apply simplistic approaches with the aim to allow a multidisciplinary access. Since the topics treated in my publications have implications for many sectors in the academic and not academic world, with the aim of allowing my research for open review, there is also the objective of allowing access to a multisectorial and multidisciplinary audience sharing interest.

Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.

For a more profound discussion over my assessments and analyses as well as constructive feedback, please use my email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com.

My agenda is simple, I am in transition looking for either funding to grow the research published in this blog or for a job position in any field in which my assets are valued. Behind my research there is nothing more, nothing else than to showcase my capabilities doing what I like, research. I am a methodologist. I don´t look at the color of the result obtained, only at the suitability of the method and the coherence of the result. As I have said before, if I am wrong on my assessments and conclusions, it will be better for all, and my work would showcase my capabilities anyway. A CV shines the goals obtained by anyone, but by publishing here my research, I expose myself and my work to public judgement. There is a difference between being naive and raw. If you see the difference you will understand better my work and my personal position.

The aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. So any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time of at least a month from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found refuting the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.

In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will help me in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.

Perspective

(This post is part of a more complex piece of independent research. I don´t have founding, political agenda or publishing revenues from visits. Any scientist working in disciplines related with the topics that I treat in my blog knows how to judge the contribution that my work could potentially add to the state of knowledge. Since I am in transition looking for a position in research, if you are one of those scientists, by just acknowledging any value you might see from my contribution, would not only make justice to my effort as independent researcher, but ultimately, it will help me to enhance my chances to find a position with resources to further develop my work.

I believe that the hypothesis that I have presented in previous posts in this blog (here, here and here) could help to understand present and possible future scenarios in atmospheric circulation. However, this is an assessment based on observation which needs to be validated throughout open discussion and data gathering. So please feel free to incorporate your thoughts and comments in a constructive manner.

If you feel like sharing this post I would appreciate to have a reference about the place or platform, by private or public message, in order for me to have the opportunity to join the debate and be aware of the repercussion which might generate d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

This work is protected under Intellectual Property laws licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.)

Since October 2013 I have been publishing pieces of research studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.

Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License,  WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.

More assessments presenting chronologically the line of research published in this blog can be accessed in the category Framework and Timeline.

For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out):

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About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Citing This Site "Title", published online "Month"+"Year", retrieved on "Month""Day", "Year" from http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my previous work as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After couple of years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, I find myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my research. In the present competitive scenario, instead of just moving my cv and wait for my next opportunity to arrive, I have decided to invest also my energy and time in opening my own line of research showing what I am capable of. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this blog has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my work and the intellectual rights represented by the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in this line of research. Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome. In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2017, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2016. Filling in or Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/
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15 Responses to Equatorial Dynamics. A conversation between Joaquin and Matthew (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

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