By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD (c) MSc Environmental Biology and PhD in Atmospheric Biology. Publications registered in pdf with DOIs at Researchgate and orcid.org/0000-0001-8685-0206.
CV english and español. Resume. Interdisciplinary Skills applied in the line of research presented.- Index for all analyses published. – Shares and Feedback at LinkedIn. Youtube channel https://www.youtube.com/@diegofdez-sevilla170
Registered in pdf at ResearchGate as “Rayleigh–Taylor instabilities in Atmospheric Circulation Driving Weather Developments Across Seasons Threaten Climate Regimes. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD” February 2023 DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.32336.99849
This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 NC License. 
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The line of research presented since 2013 points out that the amount of energy in free state contained at Meridional Latitudes (Equator and Mid Latitudes) is increasing thanks to an enhanced thermal capacity of the atmosphere due to GHGs, together with a reduced capacity of the biotic systems to absorb the energy load contained in the atmosphere from planetary internal and external sources. By using water vapour as the carrier transporting and releasing such extra pool of energy, Mid latitude circulation is forcing its expansion into the Poles, in Altitude triggering processes of Stratospheric Warming, and across Latitudes crushing the Polar domes of high dense air, pushing out cold masses of air and creating a wobbly Polar Jet Stream.
Whilst warm advection force the intrusion of warm air into Polar Latitudes melting ice, the masses of cold dense air displaced into Mid-Latitudes, generate strong fluctuations in temperature in short periods of time and promotes cyclonic developments. Such exchange of masses of air with different density, humidity and temperature is triggering a pattern of global mixing dynamics that can be observed as an increase in Rayleigh–Taylor instabilities, driving Weather Developments, High and Low T Anom Across all Seasons. And ultimately, the sudden, extreme and “out of season” fluctuations in weather conditions triggered by Rayleigh-Taylor instabilities threaten the stabilities of Climate regimes.
| May 7, 2015 | Domesticating Nature. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Rsearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36812.51848 |
June 18, 2015 Extreme climatic events, implications for projections of species distributions and ecosystem structure (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Registered in pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.19446.04161
February 2023
Connecting “Dots” in Climate Research
From 2013 I have shared analyses of atmospheric real-time events but, instead of applying my analyses as weather analyses I have always claimed that my work gives significance to weather events as “beacons” capable of being used to identify steps in a pattern. Like drawing a picture by connecting dots.
Without knowing what the dot should be connected to, before or after (no numbers to follow), my analyses study the conditions leading to the development of such weather event, and the conditions that such event create, leading to the next one. Linking weather developments can show a pattern of conditions building up, enabling the raise of such weather events throughout time, and ultimately, the conditions enabling the genesis of weather events show the state of stability for our climate regimens across latitudes.
That aspect in my line of research has very often taken the feedback questioning the validity of my approach connecting #weather and #climate. But if you take that climate is an average of 30 years, such average can change with every 10 years drifting in a different direction. And since the average is made over the data recorded due to weather developments unfolding with variations in Precipitation, temperature and all variables applied to define climate, the atmospheric dynamics responsible for those measurements are behind the conditions which will add up in the average used for climate.
However, my approach not only looks into weather as a result “and” a trigger, it also gives significance to location for not only the place where the weather events happen, but also for the location where its genesis is forged.
A puzzle use to be presented as an image in a 2 Dimensions surface, broken in pieces where the challenge is to identify the link between the pieces that create the overall picture.
#climatechange is a puzzle in a multidimensional level. First challenge comes by identifying the pieces since some are not even identified as such. And part of the problem comes from understanding the nature of the linkage that might exist.
Furthermore, the linkage between pieces can be “lateral” in a 2D correlation pattern. But some linkages are more similar to a Russian doll, in a “vertical” way. And then there is the linkage between time and location.
That is the framework that I have followed in my line of research since 2013 publishing analyses from such a multidimensional perspective. Because the scenario in which we are living is being recreated as an expression of our imagination, and that rarely represents the reality.
When we release all the features in our analyses from projecting our human tendency to create “characters”, where does it take us?
That is the question I addressed since 2014 and in 2017, and I want to recall in order to give an interpretation of current atmospheric dynamics and associated weather patterns.
There is a change in our atmospheric behaviour that is linked with a climate change, yet, that change might be different from any global cooling or warming.
2017 Climate. A System Becoming Dominated By Free Energy. The “Drama”, Character Driven VS Plot Driven Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18509.13289 https://wp.me/p403AM-1Bb
- Discussing Current Scenarios and Characters
- Global Cooling VS Global Warming
- “There is a point of view missing completely in the debate of climatic developments and atmospheric dynamics.
- Everybody seems to be focused on preparedness to face a planetary global warming or cooling phase. It is like if those are the only options. And what it surprises me the most is that either phase is expected to be unidirectional, homogeneous and stratified latitudinally.
- Based on past glaciations, cold phases extended the surface covered by ice moving from the Poles towards the equator. But no record shows an extension of reach for cool temperatures while the pole in itself gets warmer.
- It seems to me that nobody is considering that there is a new scenario in our planet, a scenario where our planet has never been so bright on its shadow face.
- A new scenario where there is a third option from global cooling or global warming, and implies the loss of stratification in the atmosphere.
The challenge that we face, all of us whom are involved in Research for the planetary system, is that it requires a wholistic approach in order to identify the synergistic interactions between all parts involved. And that take us beyond finding and analysing data broadcasting the results of the models applied. It requires to find a storyline that makes sense to all the data found, with independence of its format either numerical or visual, by magnitude or shape, …
Body of Work. A New Pattern in Atmospheric Dynamics and Weather Patterns
My interpretation of atmospheric dynamics and climate change has been opposite to the accepted by mainstream that considered the stratosphere the origin for polar weather at mid-latitudes where instead I claimed that was the result of a process moving from the bottom up. And opposite to the accepted theory taking as trigger a reduction in Ice cover, instead I claimed that it was mid-latitudinal intrusions the cause for the wobbly polar jet stream and polar weather. I even defended that the ENSO would not be required to have warm anomalies at the poles since mid-latitudinal intrusions would not depend on the signal of the ENSO. And taking the position of challenging such three elements in mainstream (polar vortex, Arctic amplification and ENSO) has led me feeling that no peer would offer support to my views, and only real-time developments would prove the accuracy of my work.
Here I share my work once again for anyone to assess its accuracy against current developments.
9 February 2023 Follow-up
6 years ago, one day “like” today, I used my previous work to write my analysis over the global dynamics in atmospheric circulation and weather patterns, applying my experience to offer an interpretation which identified a pattern with implications beyond a single event in a weather forecast. That means, if my interpretation was right, the configuration in the atmosphere addressed at that time, would serve as a representation of a configuration which would be seen in the following years, but also justified by the same reasoning.
And is time to see how well serves to understand current dynamics.
Feb 9, 2017. Polar Jet Stream and Atmospheric Dynamics. Follow-up over Past and Present Conditions Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36764.28802
https://wp.me/p403AM-1oo
Current Conditions
8 Feb 2023
“Filling In Finding Out Gaps of Knowledge” since 2013. A New Pattern
In 2014 I described a pattern of change evolving in atmospheric dynamics defined by an increase in the amount of water vapour being introduced into the poles. Such pattern is independent from the ENSO, the Polar Ice Cover (AA), the configuration of the Polar Vortex, the SST and the position of the Polar Jet Streams in both Hemispheres, but explains the behaviour of all of them.
Such pattern is characterised by an enhancement in the thermal capacity of the atmosphere which has increased its capacity to absorb water vapour.
Simultaneously, the decrease in the biotic capacity to absorb water vapour and non condensible GHGs has accelerated the process. Ultimately, the amount of Energy entering the planetary system that was fixed in molecular structures is kept in free state, summing up in the atmosphere with the increase in Energy trapped by non condensible GHGs plus, the Energy carried by water vapour.
May 7, 2015 Domesticating Nature. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36812.51848
Such amount of Energy fuels convective forcing at Mid-Latitudes pushing warm humid and low dense air into the poles, displacing cold dry high dense air from the poles at tropospheric level, and generates warm anomalies in altitude at the Stratosphere. The collision between both masses of air with different density and humidity creates what are called Rayleigh -Taylor instabilities which are behind the high contrasts in weather conditions between locations and periods of time.
6-7 Feb 2023 Satellite Imagery
2nd Feb 2023
2013-2019 Rayleigh–Taylor instabilities in Atmospheric Circulation and climatechange D Fdez-Sevilla PhD DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.26791.80805 https://wp.me/p403AM-2mI
All together, beyond a global warming or cooling process, the atmosphere is undergoing an increment in frequency and strength in a pattern of global mixing dynamics which affect the troposphere as much as the stratosphere, and grows in persistency throughout the seasons. Warm anomalies in summer are becoming as extreme as cold anom in Winter, and yet, both poles are receiving masses of warm humid air throughout the whole year, creating storms at polar latitudes. All these aspects have been addressed in my line of research since 2013.
March 2019 A pattern of change in the atmosphere beyond considering global warming or cooling. That is, global mixing. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Registered DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.32693.73445
Jan 2022 Our Climate 2.0 The Era of the Rayleigh-Taylor Instabilities D Fdez-Sevilla PhD DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.26167.80808 https://wp.me/p403AM-2ZS
March 2022 A New Atmospheric Configuration Settling Throughout the Years Shows Rayleigh-Taylor Instabilities Driving Weather Patterns Throughout Seasons Having an Impact on the Overall Climate (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Registered with DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.10787.32800
Whole line of research 2013-2023 diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com
Follow-ups shared at LinkedIn
16 January 2023
Throughout December 2022 and January 2023 we are witnessing low temperatures reaching North America, India, Asia and Europe. Even the anomalous warm Temperatures seen in the Iberian peninsula are changing into cold conditions.
For many years these cold snaps arriving from the Arctic were considered linked with many different features that became to be described as “characters” in Greek mythology. The “broken Polar Vortex”, the almighty Sun, the powerful “El Niño”, the Arctic Amplification driven by ice losses, and the confrontation of two postures: the expansion of the Arctic cold area is building up a new global glaciation (but intermittent through the summers) or a global warming yet, intermittent through the Winters.
However, cold temperatures are recorded at Mid Latitudes without the Polar vortex broken, vast amounts of precipitation are developing at north hemisphere without the EL Niño, and even the ice extension in the Arctic has been higher than previous years. Furthermore, either we look at a global cooling process or a global warming, with record low T in India as South as Delhi there is one place in the North Hemisphere which is actually warmer, and that is the center of the Arctic.
In the North Hemisphere Winter we are living the alternation between anomalous high and low T, and based on my research I believe that this will keep happening for couple of more months, and even with some masses of polar air reaching lower latitudes.
I am afraid I don’t have models to support my claim, but based on my research, last year there was a tipping point which was becoming announced in previous years. The exchange of masses of air between MidLatitudes and Polar latit has increased in frequency and strength, and the swings in Temperature and the amount of precipitation observed just reassure me in my point of view since 2014.
Even if models don’t show it, I would keep updating the state of contingency measures, planning, storage reservoirs in farms and councils, availability of resources and state of roads, …
Spain was having a relaxing beginning of Winter with anomalously high T, and it made me publish a post calling out for prudence since there was a sense of relaxation in all media. The swings in weather conditions can be so fast that if we relax the preparation of contingency measures based on laying on our backs enjoying the comfort of an over repeated “global warming”, suddenly we get caught up in “surprising wintery conditions”.
North America and Asia had an early call in December 2022 – January 2023, waking up many from the heat suffered in summer and October. Now is Spain with weather alerts set for today and next days due to a Polar mass of air pushed out from polar latitudes by anomalous warm air making its way in.
This is the difference between preparing to be ready for a process of a “global” warming or cooling, and be prepared for something else. We are living a process of increase in atmospheric mixing that expose us to steep swings in weather conditions, and such dynamic of global mixing is not just a 1 season, 1 storm deal.
September 8, 2015 Trans-Arctic circulation between Pacific and Atlantic Basins. A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla). Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1697.5847
A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD).
October 18, 2018 Arctic Dynamics as part of a Global Pattern in Atmospheric Circulation. Research Follow-up October 2018 (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Pdf available at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.26042.03522
Jan 2019 Winter 2018/19. Seasonal Transitions under a New Climatic Scenario. Follow-Up by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD https://wp.me/p403AM-2bn
Jan 2020 Arguments, Discussion and Points of View on Climate. The relevance of building a “Framework” to find “Nexus points” offering “Proof of concept” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Registered DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20604.16007. https://wp.me/p403AM-2rE
March 2021 The Weather that shapes a Climate and the Climate that enables a typology of Weather. D. Fdez-Sevilla PhD Registered DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.23945.77928 https://wp.me/p403AM-2MG
11 January 2023
Once more, seeing in winter 2022-2023 extreme cold T at North America and Asia whilst warm Anom at Tropospheric and Stratospheric Arctic, independently from the Enso’s sign, I want to share my work showing its coherence and value to understand current dynamics as part of a pattern gaining strength throughout the years.
“The drainage of the “Arctic cold reservoir” is a process which started with a timid seasonal waving on the Polar Jet Stream. This process has become more extreme by the years, beginning to show as the collapse of a wall under the pressure on a tide gaining strength. Convective forcing from mid latitudes is invading the north pole forcing the displacement of cold masses into foreign territories. What began as a process marked by seasonal pulses, this year 2022-23 is showing to maintain momentum throughout seasons.”
The anomalous warming at the Arctic has been discussed in the line of research presented already in 2015, in 2016 (which includes the previous one from 2015) and with follow-ups in 2018-2022 at diegofdezsevilla.wordpress
Even though these analyses are not articles in peered reviewed journals, these analyses have not received arguments invalidating their coherence and significance. So it is up to you to judge their value or ask whom you trust about it.
October 2018 Arctic Dynamics as part of a Global Pattern in Atmospheric Circulation. by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Registered in pdf at Researchgate October 2018 DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.26042.03522
Intro Framework and visual aids with animations
Discrepancies between conclusions reached in the present line of research and those from Mainstream
Current conditions Temp anom 2m, SST, Ice cover and thickness NH, ENSO, SOI and Polar Vortex Configuration
Study Timeline and Overall Conclusions
Conditions 17 Oct 2018
Latest analysis related
Some related analyses
Arctic
Global Circulation Follow-Up
Review comparing the present developments with earlier analyses
Conclusions on: Weather, Climate, Energy, Environment and Man
Some previous related analyses. Full index at the bottom of the homepage.
Oct 2014 New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4859.3440 https://wp.me/p403AM-k3
Nov 2014 Why there is no need for the #polarvortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2500.0488 https://wp.me/p403AM-mt
Sept 2015Trans-Arctic circulation between Pacific and Atlantic Basins. A Climate “Between Waters” Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1697.5847 https://wp.me/p403AM-He
Oct 2015 Discussing Climatic Teleconnections. Follow Up On My Previous Research Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2962.7605 https://wp.me/p403AM-Jv
Dec 2015 Could It Be El Niño The New “Wolf” Coming? Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.3238.2801 https://wp.me/p403AM-Mz
Dec 2015 Climate and weather December 2015. Another Polar Vortex another Heat Wave? Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.19966.48968 https://wp.me/p403AM-Pb
Jan 2016 Atmospheric Dynamics And Shapes Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.35973.65765 https://wp.me/p403AM-Qo
Feb 2016 Polar Vortex, Old News, Same News? Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25779.12328 https://wp.me/p403AM-T2
Jan 2017 Temp Displacements. Solid Water In A Dessert Which Is Not At The Poles. Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.19104.69123 https://wp.me/p403AM-1l1
Jan 2017 Breaking Stereotypes Assessing Climatic Dynamics Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.12396.67200 https://wp.me/p403AM-1mb
Jan 2017 Climate and Indexes. A dashboard of Confusion. Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25016.96007 https://wp.me/p403AM-1mz
Feb 2018 Arctic Warming as a Result of Convective Forcing by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34551.73125
Jan 2019 Winter 2018/19. Seasonal Transitions under a New Climatic Scenario Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD https://wp.me/p403AM-2bn
Jan 2020 Arguments, Discussion and Points of View on Climate. The relevance of building a “Framework” to find “Nexus points” offering “Proof of concept” Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20604.16007 https://wp.me/p403AM-2rE
March 2021 The Weather that shapes a Climate and the Climate that enables a typology of Weather. D. Fdez-Sevilla PhD DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.23945.77928 https://wp.me/p403AM-2MG
Jan 2022 Our Climate 2.0 The Era of the Rayleigh-Taylor Instabilities Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.26167.80808 https://wp.me/p403AM-2ZS
All these aspects have been addressed in my line of research since 2013.
Atmospheric Dynamics and Climatic Implications
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Overall, the line of research here presented between 2013-2019 points to an increasing instability of the interface between two fluids of different densities, Meridional Planetary air masses and Polar air masses. And the resulting implications affect de synergies existent between biotic activity and the physical behaviour resultant from the three states of matter in our planetary thermodinamic system.
Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Drift. Are we there yet? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)
July 2, 2015
Based on the line of research presented between 2013-2019 the processes dominating current developments would be described as:
The global Temperature measured is the resultant of mixing patterns in the atmosphere, Therefore an increase in mixing dynamics creates a pause in temperature raise, An increase in mixing dynamics show an increase in convective forcing, Convective forcing is the work resultant from an increase in atmospheric energy being incorporated in free state, The incorporation and spread of energy in free state into the atmosphere is carried and released by water vapour, An increase of water vapour in atmospheric circulation requires an increase in the thermal capacity of the atmosphere, The process of enhancing the thermal capacity of the atmosphere comes by increasing the concentration of GHGs, conc of aerosols and land surface albedo. Anthropogenic activity is linked with those processes.
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The Arctic case
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While the correlation over time between SST and Atmospheric Temp at the Arctic is a “constant” defined by the behaviour of water in its transition between physical states, the concentration of water vapour at Arctic latitudes shows that the expansion of Mid-Latitudinal forcing has increased in time, supporting the validity of previous analyses presented in the current line of research.
| November 17, 2016 | Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.24688.35848
Temperature is measured through an atmosphere with a molecular composition thermically active. The atmosphere is nitrogen, oxygen, and argon. The molecular composition which absorb and retain radiation affecting climatic regimes and ice cover anomalies are GHGs (CO2) being water vapour the major component as part of a feedback with the other GHGs. Through periods of low radiation (winter) temperature drops enough (as in the Arctic should be) so the molecular composition would be mostly N and O without water vapour since it would freeze. So the atmosphere in itself looses its thermal conductance by drying out. How ever, if there is a forced increment of GHGs, like the increase in water vapour measured in the latest decades, the thermal conductance of the air increases, carrying more energy in circulation by water vapour. Being increased the pool of energy carried at the Arctic decreases the amount of energy which the atmosphere can absorb from the oceans. Water releases energy until it freezes only if it the surrounding medium can take all the energy supplied by the ocean. Otherwise it absorbs energy only up to thermal equilibrium. If this equilibrium is higher than freezing there is no ice. |
| December 17, 2016 | Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20129.81760
“The Arctic is warming faster than other latitudes in the planet, like when you pour water into a glass continuously, there will be a moment in which the amount of water will start increasing faster outside the glass than inside. Equatorial and Mid latitudes have already taken what they can from Kinetic energy. This volume is overloaded and it is expanding to higher latitudes and longitudes. This has increased the mixing ratio between parts of the atmosphere otherwise compartmentalised through thermal contrasts.” |
| February 28, 2018 | Arctic Warming as a Result of Convective Forcing by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34551.73125
The energy contained by Mid-Latitudinal masses of air is strong enough to work its way towards the North Pole generating warm anomalies in the Arctic at tropospheric and stratospheric levels. The power expressed for such convective motion is enough to displace Cold Dense masses of air from the Arctic into lower latitudes. The feedback loop resultant addressed in previous assessments is showing throughout this winter 2018. Energy is being released from Latent Heat carried by water vapour at Arctic latitudes (as it can be seen in the Pacific and Atlantic intrusions) and more latent heat is also being released at Mid Latitudes with the intrusion of cold masses of air. Altogether, convective motions moving towards the Arctic are triggering the release of Latent heat simultaneously in the Arctic and at Mid Latitudes. The incoming energy released into the atmosphere has the potential of fuelling more convective motion in the atmosphere to the point of self perpetuation, inducing changes in the ENSO phase and all the other Indexes as well as promoting Heat waves towards the seasonal increase in Solar Radiation. |
| March 3, 2019 | A pattern of change in the atmosphere beyond considering global warming or cooling. That is, global mixing. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Registered DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.32693.73445 |
______________Main Conclusions_____________
The main conclusion reached in the current line of research points out that; an increase in the amount of energy being in “free” state means that kinetic processes will increasingly dominate thermodynamic processes, inducing a transition in our Seasonal and Climatic regimes from being driven by Orbital Positioning to be driven by more erratic Kinetic processes. (see more related analysis)
In a process of change Tipping points come as stations in a train journey. Under the current atmospheric dynamics April 2019 we can say that we have passed couple of stations or tipping points already. First the system become overloaded warming up anomalously and next it has become unstable. Ultimately, the biggest implication raising from the current developments would not be found in seeing a gradual increase in atmospheric temperature BUT INSTEAD from seeing an increase in Atmospheric Global Mixing accelerating soil weathering. Such implications touch directly the survival capabilities of the human specie, and it concerns all strategies proposed to tackle the impact from climatic deviations which rely on keeping deteriorating the capabilities of the soils to sustain the biotic performance fighting towards reducing the increasing entropy/instabilities promoted from increasing the atmospheric pool of energy in free state.
The whole approach described in my theory can be observed by the increasing dynamics displayed in the atmosphere as Rayleigh-Taylor Instabilities due to an increase in global mixing between two fluids with different densities, those from the MidLatitudes and the Arctic.
Seasonal weather across latitudes shows to be increasingly driven by kinetic dynamics independent of planet tilt. Atmospheric dynamics through seasons keep momentum delivering patterns of global mixing between latitudes. While precipitation changes from solid to liquid based on Solar radiation, water vapour shows to have an increasing role in fuelling mid-latitudinal convective forcing dominating all seasons and latitudes, from Turkey to Alaska, from heavy snow to flooding. And all dissociated from Climate Indexes. This pattern has been discussed in my line of research 2013-2019.
Would the current developments show Proof of concept?
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- November 14, 2013. Climate, “normal variability” or “change”? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.23557.86244
- November 27, 2013. Climate variability and energy balance. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.33706.11203
- October 21, 2014. New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4859.3440
- Feb 2015 Gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1975.7602/1
- December 17, 2016 Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20129.81760 https://wp.me/p403AM-1jd
- January 20, 2017 Climate and Indexes. A dashboard of Confusion. Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25016.96007 https://wp.me/p403AM-1mz
- June 29, 2018 Seasonal Transitions under a New Climatic Scenario. Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18385.22881 https://wp.me/p403AM-1Xi
The overall conclusions can be summarised in five animations from previous analyses: An increase in the atmospheric energetic pool (1) fuels convective dynamics(2) forcing intrusions over the Arctic (3) as part of a global enhanced motion in global mixing (4). Altogether, seasonal transitions, weather patterns and biotic performance are linked being involved in the composition of the matter transferring energy within the planetary system(5). (more animations at the youtube channel)
2019 Contextualization
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The Research
The approach followed in the line of research here presented has discrepancies with the path followed by mainstream in aspects as such:
- the ENSO is not a driver of atmospheric dynamics but instead it is driven by atmospheric dynamics,
- that the Polar vortex configuration is not “the cause for” atmospheric dynamics but “the result of” atmospheric dynamics,
- that SST are a consequence of atmospheric dynamics and not the trigger, and
- that the biotic component in the planet is the only responsible for taming the atmospheric dynamics shaping our climate, avoiding a complete release of energetic discharges from Sun´s exposition.
Furthermore, something in common for all previous ice ages is that none of them were an expansion in the territory for cold conditions while the centre of such area remained unaltered or even warmer than previous periods. Something we see now for the first time as far as my knowledge goes on ice cores.
My interpretation is that never through the previous periods of time there has been a coalescence in time and space (geologically speaking) for a simultaneous alteration in the stratification of the composition, structure and concentration of the components part of the thermodynamic ecosystem built upon the synergistic interactions between soils, gases and water. In geological terms the only way to move backwards in time is by a sequence of events but never when everything happens at once.
Based on the line of research presented between 2013-2019 the processes dominating current developments would be described as: The global Temperature measured is the resultant of mixing patterns in the atmosphere, Therefore an increase in mixing dynamics creates a pause in temperature raise, An increase in mixing dynamics show an increase in convective forcing, Convective forcing is the work resultant from an increase in atmospheric energy being incorporated in free state, The incorporation and spread of energy in free state into the atmosphere is carried and released by water vapour, An increase of water vapour in atmospheric circulation requires an increase in the thermal capacity of the atmosphere, The process of enhancing the thermal capacity of the atmosphere comes by increasing the concentration of GHGs, conc of aerosols and land surface albedo. Anthropogenic activity is linked with those processes.
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Body of Work 2013-2019
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Between 2014 and 2016 I shared analyses over real time developments in order to validate the hypothesis behind the conclusions offered in 2013. After 2016 I incorporated the process of validating those against time by re-publishing them in contrast with the developments seen in the following years. For the Winter 17-18 I actually have re-published previous assessments with a month or two prior to the period of time addressed in order to evaluate its potential representing a pattern.
In Feb 2017, the line of research presented in this blog reached a final stage in which its framework has demonstrated to hold and support the theoretical approach behind the study bringing original and innovative insights into the state of knowledge addressing environmental synergies by “Filling in and Finding out gaps of knowledge”.
| March 23, 2017 | Final Review in Progress. March 2017. From ENSO to Scientific Thinking by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.33915.82726 |
| February 7, 2019 | Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD_Jan 2019 Report on Climate and Atmosphere_ Filling in or Finding out the gaps around.pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.30663.75682 |
Theories have been formulated to explain, predict, and understand phenomena and, in many cases, to challenge and extend existing knowledge within the limits of critical bounding assumptions.
| October 21, 2015 | Discussing Climatic Teleconnections. Follow Up On My Previous Research (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2962.7605 |
| January 20, 2017 | Climate and Indexes. A dashboard of Confusion. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25016.96007 |
| April 19, 2018 | Climate, Weather and Energy. Using a Climatic Regime to explain Weather Events by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Research DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.27923.58406 |
Numerous Follow-ups over previous assessments have been published contrasting their validity against real-time developments (in the timeline section below use ctrl+F: “follow-up”) challenging and legitimizing the conclusions offered:
- Models confuse the science in which those are applied. Factions opposed in views will not come together by using models. And even there is no need for it. Darwin did not need an algorithm and a model to identify genetic evolution. The observational evidence was so strong that unified the scientific community. And evolution is a process comparable with climate, reacts to pressures.
| “The Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything” is … 42 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2400.2324 | May 15, 2014 |
| Debating Climate, Environment and Planetary evolution. Define your position. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.27332.73603 | October 2, 2014 |
| March 10, 2017 | Modelling the “Model” and the Observer (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.17558.04169 |
- Arctic Amplification takes an assumption open for discussion: “sea ice acts as a barrier for the heat transport from the ocean to the atmosphere.” Actually, sea ice acts as a barrier for the heat transport *from the atmosphere to the ocean. The line of research offered taking Arctic SST as responsible for warming processes is not considering the thermodynamics behind changes in phase (liquid/solid/gas) and the difference between condensible and not condensible GHGs. Heat moves between locations AND phases. SST warming the atmosphere would loose heat, thus forming ice.
| November 17, 2016 | Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.24688.35848 |
| December 17, 2016 | Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20129.81760 |
| February 28, 2018 | Arctic Warming as a Result of Convective Forcing by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34551.73125 |
- Between global warming and global cooling there is global mixing.
| September 8, 2015 | Trans-Arctic circulation between Pacific and Atlantic Basins. A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla). Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1697.5847 |
| May 26, 2016 | Atmospheric Circulation and the Mixing Zone. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34019.04645 |
| July 1, 2016 | Atmospheric mixing. Indian Basin June 2016 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.11803.98088 |
| August 26, 2016 | Aug 2016 Follow-up on previous assessments. Atmospheric Dynamics, Temperature Displacements, Atmospheric Mixing (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) |
| September 14, 2016 | Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.19874.63684 |
| October 13, 2016 | Global Mixing in Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.21255.60320 |
| June 9, 2017 | “Mixing Dynamics” in the Atmosphere. A follow-up on previous research by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.23548.03209 |
| March 14, 2018 | Visualising Wind and Convective Forcing Driving Climatic Dynamics. Follow-up 14 March 2018 by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Pdf available at DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34233.06249 |
| April 19, 2018 | Climate, Weather and Energy. Using a Climatic Regime to explain Weather Events by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Research DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.27923.58406 |
- Anthropogenic transformations over the structure and composition of the three phases of the environment (Gaseous-Atmosphere, Solid- Land Use and Cover, Liquid-Water bodies) have reduced CxHxOx and increased CxOx+HxOx, CxHx, as well as albedo, … altering the energetic balance in the thermodynamic system which conforms our Climatic regimes.
| July 24, 2015 | Solar Activity and Human Activity, Settling Their Environmental Liability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36702.33606 |
| March 3, 2017 | Thermodynamic Ecosystems by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.32238.10566 |
| March 23, 2017 | Final Review in Progress. March 2017. From ENSO to Scientific Thinking by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.33915.82726 |
You can look at the whole project (more than 200 analyses published between 2013 and 2018) published at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com and also you will find some of those publications with a DOI in my profile at ResearchGate
Framework on Weather, Climate, Energy, Environment and Man
The question driving the whole debate on Climatic Deviations from “a Normal”, or Climatic Drift, focus most of the methodologies on temperature.
However I have followed a different approach in my analyses looking at Gradients of Energy in all its forms. That is why in 2014 I offered my thoughts as a theory of practical applications addressing variations in the gradients of energy found in the atmosphere.
Energy fuels the work done by warm masses of air displacing colder masses of air in their path. That increases mixing patterns generating anomalies in temperature.
The whole approach described in my theory can be observed by the increasing dynamics displayed in the atmosphere as Rayleigh-Taylor Instabilities due to an increase in global mixing between two fluids with different densities, those from the MidLatitudes and the Arctic. (January 13, 2016 Atmospheric Dynamics And Shapes (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.35973.65765
“Behind an increase in the amount of work carried out by masses of air there is an increase in the energy fuelling such dynamics.”
Energy can only be transferred, not created or destroyed. So more work means more energy in circulation. More energy in circulation can only be sustained by a substance carrying it. Either if we consider that the energy driving anomalies comes from the Sun or from the Oceans, the carrier has to be in the atmosphere in order for the energy to produce work. And the body loosing heat cools down.
A corridor of wind over the Arctic is triggered by a conversion of Temperature into work, convection and advection, which are the result of mixing masses of air. As it was published in previous analyses, such Trans-Arctic connection between Atlantic and Pacific Basins is part of a pattern increasing the mixing ratio between masses of air otherwise separate
d by thermal compartmentalization, like the Polar Jet Stream. An increase in the dispersion of energetic forms have different outcomes, one of which it would be a temporary reduction in the average temperature resultant for the mixing between Cold (Arctic) and warm (Mid-Latitude) masses of air as well as in altitude (SSW).
Subsequently, “temperature” is less reliable than looking at “work” seen even in the “mild” events.
(see ref- Statistical Significance. The Scary Side of Being Mild (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.21934.61767
In the framework presented throughout the line of research published in this blog (and researchgate) it has been considered “Climate” as being defined by the amount of energy free to do work. In other words, energy free to promote weather events. Accordingly, in my research I define Climate by the amount and state of energy in circulation, and Weather by the use of this energy.(ref)
Consequently, with the definition applied for Climate and Weather, my definition of Climate Drift is:
“the deviation from equilibrium of the conditions allowing the perpetuity of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in a micro and macro ecosystem. This situation can be due to changes in any component of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes can be either a change in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality or rates in the flows of energy pre-established OR/AND the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components/forces and energy sinks or sources in any part of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance.”
In my assessments I have defended that the increase in the energy pool at mid-latitudes would ultimately create an scenario with an overcharged atmosphere. That would reduce the contrasts with which to create and maintain stability in the structure required to condense energy in singular events, like hurricanes. Giving more relevance to the single contrast between Ocean/continental masses. However, the opening of the Arctic circulation through a weak Jet Stream would reduce the pressure in the containment absorbing the condensation of energy at mid-latitudes, expanding into a new volume.
Accordingly, hadley circulation gets affected (see also) generating new patterns of turbulence at the ITCZ (hurricanes, typhoons, …) as well as it gets influenced Arctic mixing zones with lower latitudes.
In this scenario TCs are generated under an increase in the mixing ratio of an unstable atmospheric circulation dominated by kinetic energy transferred by water vapour thanks to GHGs, and immersed in an overcharged atmosphere with no place where to diffuse its energy, becoming resilient as long as they stay over the ocean. So they endure like a piece of an ice rock in cold water.
About Sea Surface Temperatures, my assessments take SST as subsequent conditions driven by wind shear. So the interaction between masses of air in circulation allows or inhibits SST developments. Once the scenario is built on SST this becomes a “battle field” conditioning the subsequent interaction between the following masses of air and the characteristics of the “grounds” where the game will be played (sort of speak). Like the effect of the ice conditions in an ice hockey match.
El Niño is an event which happens in a very small portion of the Earth, it is related to the temperature of a very thin layer of the Ocean in depth, a small percentage of the area occupied by the whole Oceanic masses, and even smaller when it is integrated in the multidimensional space combining Ocean and Atmosphere.
It is kind of intriguing to think why it has been so easy to conclude that such small portion of the entire system is driving it as a whole. It is like considering that the flowering of plants drives the seasons. Similarly it could be said about using SST at the Arctic to justify altogether; the lack of ice, warmer temperatures at tropospheric level and even at stratospheric level. There is not enough energy in the SST of such small area as it is the Arctic to justify all those convective dynamics.
- March 22, 2016 Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1968.5521).
- February 28, 2018, Arctic Warming as a Result of Convective Forcing by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhDResearchGate DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.34551.73125
- May 23, 2018, Convective Forcing Dominates Atmospheric Circulation NH (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.23043.20002
It can not surprise me enough the fact that there is a scientific agreement followed by theories such the Arctic Amplification and Stephan Boltzmann black body radiation, which focus on single locations as sources of energy triggering warming events. Arctic amplification focus the attention in the Arctic, and the absence of ice decreasing albedo, to justify the location for the source of energy warming the atmosphere in the Sea Surface Waters. And it does it even considering the absence of Solar radiation, which in itself discards any process of albedo absorbing and re-emitting energy. Accordingly with their theory, Arctic amplification suggests that Arctic circulation affects circulation at mid-latitudes, however, all the dynamics we see point in the opposite direction. Mid latitudinal forcing pushes against Arctic restrictions through the Jet Stream, displacing cold masses of air in their path, using water vapour as the carrier of the energy feeding convective motions.
Animations from previous publications:
Stephan Boltzmann relation describing radiative gradients of temperature rely entirely on an idealized body homogeneous in composition and even pressure. Such statement neglects the nature of the processes involved in the transference of energy found in the atmosphere where there are simultaneously three states of matter, gaseous, liquid and solid, numerous compounds different in molecular composition and behaviour, as well as an active thermodynamic system made of heterogeneous cells containing independent microsystems of entropy, interacting in a macro system out from equilibrium. (more here).
So opposite from a black body, the distribution of radiation and heat across an 
heterogeneous system delivers an uneven distribution marked by the nature of the connections built between micro and macro systems, ecosystems and abiotic systems, gaseous, liquid, solid and multi-estate systems. It becomes evident that there is not a distribution of temperatures following a gradient defined by Stephan-Boltzmann estimations because the transference of energy is heterogeneous due to the heterogeneous composition and disposition of the matter states in the planetary system. By understanding those limitations we can identify the expansion of energetic pulses throughout the atmosphere avoiding focusing the attention over the temperatures and instead, focusing the attention into identifying the “work” expressed by the dynamics in motion, either as forms of precipitation, trans-latitudinal transportation of matter (Water Vapour), transference of radiation (SSW), discharges of electricity and displacements of cold and heat waves.
In my research I have been very persistent trying to highlight how much relevance it is given to a small area in size and depth driving global circulation as it is the SST at the Eq Pacific while an area of the same size and even more depth could be identified in the Amazon or by the change suffered in Land cover by agriculture at global scale.
We have to consider that SST are measured in the 5 or less m of the Ocean meanwhile Forests can occupy more than 15 meters in depth. And both are sources of the latent heat 
carried out in the atmosphere which fuels convective dynamics dominating intrusions over the Arctic.
Among those analyses published in my line of research some time ago studying the impact from changes in Land cover over atmospheric dynamics:
- April 23, 2015 Matching Features Between Land Surface and Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20035.30247. https://wp.me/p403AM-xK
- June 10, 2016 The Butterfly Effect on Arctic Circulation. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) https://wp.me/p403AM-12H
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Discussion
There have been some assessments showing major discrepancies between the line of research presented here and main stream scientific coverage. The assessments are about the concept of climate drift, the link between the Polar Vortex and tropospheric circulation, the role played by SST and the ENSO, the dynamics explaining abnormal Arctic Warming and sea ice cover, the synergistic implications from the biotic component, solar forcing and the scientific methodology applied.
Polar Vortex
| November 14, 2014 | Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2500.0488 |
| December 18, 2015 | Climate and weather December 2015. Another Polar Vortex another Heat Wave? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.19966.48968 |
| October 25, 2016 | Another Heat Wave Another Polar Vortex II … Broken (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.13418.93124 |
Climate Drift
| October 21, 2014 | (Updated 22/Dec/14) New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4859.3440 |
| Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Drift. Are we there yet? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) | July 2, 2015 |
| September 2, 2016 | Climate Drift, The True Meaning of Things and the Drift of Those. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) |
Arctic Amplification
| November 17, 2016 | Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) |
| December 17, 2016 | Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20129.81760 |
SST and ENSO
| October 16, 2015 | SST Anomalies and Heat Waves. Are They Not All Just Heat Displacements? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.23741.05608 |
| December 11, 2015 | Could It Be El Niño The New “Wolf” Coming? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.3238.2801 |
| March 22, 2016 | Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1968.5521 |
| June 23, 2017 | “Seasonal Outlook. June 2017 (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25428.91528 |
Solar Forcing
| April 10, 2014 | Exploring the effects of humanly generated factors in the role played by Solar activity in the climate. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) |
| July 24, 2015 | Solar Activity and Human Activity, Settling Their Environmental Liability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36702.33606 |
| September 22, 2016 | Solar Forcing in Our Climatic and Atmospheric Dynamics. Location, Location, Location (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.10303.20647 |
The Biotic Synergy
| June 26, 2014 | Biological Productivity and its Influence on Cloud Formation. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) |
| December 22, 2014 | Biological Productivity, Amazonia and Atmospheric Circulation. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.10771.99363 |
| May 7, 2015 | Domesticating Nature. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Rsearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36812.51848 |
| April 22, 2016 | Plant an Idea and Then a Tree… But Which Ones? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.3977.0489 |
| March 3, 2017 | Thermodynamic Ecosystems by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.32238.10566 |
| May 26, 2017 | Review. CO2 Makes Headlines To Grow Like Trees, Shaping Different Forests Offering Different Views (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.16286.33601 |
The Scientific Method
| Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Drift. Are we there yet? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) | July 2, 2015 |
| March 10, 2017 | Modelling the “Model” and the Observer (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.17558.04169 |
| May 3, 2019 | Methodological Biases in Climatic Postures (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) |
Teleconnections
| January 20, 2017 | Climate and Indexes. A dashboard of Confusion. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25016.96007 |
| April 19, 2018 | Climate, Weather and Energy. Using a Climatic Regime to explain Weather Events by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Research DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.27923.58406 |
In the line of research presented in this blog it has been discussed the impact over energy flows derived from solar activity, land use and surface, atmospheric composition of GHGs and aerosols as well as the water cycle.
Based on the previous observations and assessments presented in this line of research, the state of the stratospheric circulation at both poles suggest that there is no need to have sudden warming process at stratospheric level in order to have a broken polar vortex. Such scenario was observed in October 2016 by the configuration of the polar vortex split at the NH without a stratospheric localised strong warming meanwhile the South pole was suffering a Sudden stratospheric warming without splitting the polar vortex.
But also, neither is required a broken polar Vortex in order to have displacements of cold polar masses of air into lower latitudes. Such configuration comes from the convective forcing triggered at lower altitudes by warm masses of air moving towards the poles in latitude and altitude.
This behaviour can be explained by considering the thermal properties of the atmosphere as a system capable of carrying energy across higher latitudes and altitudes without dissipation and in enough concentration to affect the configuration of the polar vortex from the bottom up. Such capacity to keep momentum across latitudes and altitude conserving thermal energy can only be explained by an enhancement in the thermal properties of the atmosphere, which are directly related with its composition.
Throughout my line of research I suggest that there is one approach which is able to unify all events in a single principle. The incorporation of energy into the atmosphere is shaping the atmospheric dynamics we see affecting the behaviour of currents, storms, rain rates, lightning events, wind regimes and temperature variations.
The atmosphere might have trespassed a tipping point absorbing energy making to tremble its previous structural configuration in Latitude and Altitude.
The constant contact of warm masses of air from Low and Mid-Latitudes with those from polar latitudes has worn off the strength of the Polar Jet Stream. Such circumstance has allowed the intrusion of warm masses of air into higher latitudes and altitudes, increasing atmospheric mixing dynamics. These convective intrusions are fuelled by the energy carried within water vapour, inducing the displacements of other colder masses of air in altitude and latitude, increasing the mixing ratio between otherwise compartmentalized parts of the atmosphere.
Such circumstance has allowed the atmosphere to spread the energy carried by water vapour from Mid Latitudes into Polar Latitudes (Arctic latitudes), being able of holding more energy than before since it is not dissipated into their surroundings when moving across latitudes.
This scenario has induced a trans-Arctic interconnectivity between oceanic basins which has happened with and without the need for a strong sign of the ENSO. Therefore, this would suggest that exchange of masses of air between the Mid low latitudes with the Arctic, through the Polar Jet Stream, is the dominant driver in atmospheric circulation defining the behaviour of equatorial winds. But also, the configuration of the NH Polar Vortex.
Altogether the research here presented points to a new scenario in atmospheric dynamics in which the Arctic circulation, previously isolated from Subtropical influence by the Polar Jet Stream, has become open to be involved in the atmospheric dynamics for the Pacific and Atlantic basins. This new interconnection will affect the atmospheric dynamics around the whole North Hemisphere. But also, by being our atmosphere a close system, subsidiary, such alteration would affect dynamics at the Equator and due to symmetric compensation between Hemispheres, moreover into the Southern Hemisphere.
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The Anthropogenic Link
As a biologist myself I find intriguing to see that our environment is predominately not described in biological terms.
Einstein made it very clear, our environment is a relative proportion of free energy and fixed energy in mass. There is one process in our system fixing E into mass, and one releasing E from mass. The “relative efficiency” of both processes is what is defining the behaviour of our thermodynamic environment.
There is an interference from human activities changing the composition and structure of the three phases of the environment:
- solid; land cover and use affects albedo and changes in evapotranspiration rates due to biotic disruptions on wild population functionality,
From May 7, 2015 publication Domesticating Nature. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36812.51848
- the liquid phase through alterations over the water cycles, distribution of water bodies, and humidity of soils as well as affecting circulation patterns due to coastal deterioration and deformation, but also, indirectly due to alterations in the composition of the inert and biotic matter in the Oceans due to pollution and modifications in acidification and salinity related with atmospheric composition and thermal properties.
- and gaseous phase due to alterations in the composition of the atmosphere from GHGs as well as aerosols, altogether affecting its thermodynamic behaviour.
The deviation from equilibrium of those conditions disrupt the perpetuation of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in the micro and macro ecosystem.
The definitive link between human activities and atmospheric dynamics is under constant discussion since climatic developments are mainly approached from the field of physics.
However, the direct link between Anthropogenic activities and climatic developments are found in biological terms with thermodynamic implications:
Human activity has reduced CxHxOx compounds and increased free CxOx+HxOx.
Furthermore, anthropogenic activities release Energy from breaking structures (C-C) while biochemical processes assimilate energy fixing it into stable structures (CxHxOx).
Anthropogenic activity is simultaneously, releasing energy from a biochemically fixed state into the Planetary System’s Pool, at the same time that, it adds thermoactice compounds as CO2 and H2O. But furthermore, through this activity of constant transformational and processing, human activities are also debilitating the functionality of the biochemical processes capable of absorbing such perturbation, the endogenous ecosystems.
Einstein and his developments were mainly applied in physics due to the use that it was made of his work with the aim to manipulate energy in times of conflict, or to understand space. The equation is simple E=mc2. The language of physics has dominated the discussion over physical developments since then and it has been established as the logical translation of climatic developments. However, in the current times, the role of scientific understanding demands to move beyond the barriers of language, either between semantic cultural languages and between disciplines.
Being myself a Biologist involved in Atmospheric dynamics applying physics to explain such a complex subject as it is climatic evolution might seem like the tale of the child claiming that the Emperor has no clothes.
And yet, it seems to me evident that a thermodynamic system as it is our planet, can not scape from the most basic and powerful understanding of our contemporary scientific evolution. If E=MC2, and the anthropogenic activity is increasing the transformation of M into Energy in the system (from burning Mass from fossils and vegetable components, as well as by liberating other forms of energy such as gravimetric in Dams, Solar, transformation of raw materials, etc,) such transformation rate will move the balance in the thermodynamic behaviour of the whole system, and the rate of such deviation from equilibrium will be related with the speed at which the transformation rate between E/M is performed: M>(c)2
________Conclusions_________
| March 23, 2017 | Final Review in Progress. March 2017. From ENSO to Scientific Thinking by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.33915.82726 |
The mere identification of seeing: numbers of trees decreased over 46% from wild ecosystems being affected through time due to agriculture, increased levels of urbanization, deforestation, same for soil degradation, decrease in O2 conc, and an increase in GHG, can not be left out of the equation when considering what it is and what it is not “natural variability”, and the future expected for our thermodynamic planetary system.
Our planet is getting fat on GHG, lacking O2, space to grow natural ecosystems and capacity to fix and store energy. Biology integrates all components in an ecosystem, yet it is missing in climatology assessments.
The main conclusion from the present study researching synergistic interactions between all transformations seen over the Liquid, Gaseous and solid phases of our global Environment indicates that anthropogenic activity is forcing our environment into A System Becoming Dominated By Free Energy. (pdf Registered at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18509.13289)
Our Planet is made from the combination of all the organisms in a given area and the abiotic elements which affect them. An ecosystem is an open system because it can exchange energy or materials with other ecosystems. Earth is a closed system with respect to nutrients and chemicals, but open with respect to energy. There is an underestimated synergistic relationship between biogeochemical energy flows and those identified in weather patterns and atmospheric dynamics. For too many years it has been considered that the Earth is a garden populated by “elements” offering colourful pleasure and comfort. In fact, the biochemical processes undertaken by our ecosystems function as the most advanced piece of technology known by Humans, responsible for the quality of our air, waters and soils, as much as the sole and unique mechanism capable of interacting with the thermodynamic pressure imposed by the constant exposure of the planet to Sun’s radiation. Until we see the real function of biological processes as climate regulators we will not realise in how much trouble we are.
The biotic component of our environmental system is the only one capable of interacting against thermodynamic entropy, against instability. And for as long as Human activity can not replicate such mechanisms in equilibrium with the resources consumed, it might be time to think about domesticating Human Activities instead of following the obsession for Domesticating Natural Behaviour and Geoengineer our Weather.
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________Overall Conclusions________
An increase in the amount of energy being in “free” state means that kinetic processes will increasingly dominate thermodynamic processes, inducing a transition in our Seasonal and Climatic regimes from being driven by Orbital Positioning to be driven by more erratic Kinetic processes. (see related analysis)
Examples of processes releasing ENERGY FROM ANTHROPOGENIC ACTIVITIES
From previous publication “Domesticating Nature” (2015)
Atmospheric Oxygen Levels
Atmospheric Oxygen Levels are Decreasing Oxygen levels are decreasing globally due to fossil-fuel burning. The changes are too small to have an impact on human health, but are of interest to the study of climate change and carbon dioxide. These plots show the atmospheric O2 concentration relative to the level around 1985. The observed downward trend amounts to 19 ‘per meg’ per year. This corresponds to losing 19 O2 molecules out of every 1 million O2 molecules in the atmosphere each year.
Scripps O2 Global Oxygen Measurements The Scripps O2 Program measures changes in atmospheric oxygen levels from air samples collected at stations around the world. This sampling network provides a global and hemispheric perspective on oxygen variability. The Scripps O2 Program is based at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at La Jolla, California and is under the direction of Professor Ralph Keeling.
_____________Imagery and Methodology_________
Nowadays, there are many divisions between disciplines due to the isolated nature of their specific language and methodologies. I might not use the right vocabulary for all the fields which I discuss, or the right data or the right reasoning. But when nobody is able to offer a consensus over what is going on, I wonder, what is right this days?.
The line of research presented in this blog describes a scenario where things happen for a reason, and where there are reasons for things to happen. No model offers that much. Meanwhile “reasons” explain probabilities, models use “probabilities” to let you figure out the reasons.
After leaving months, even years of time to expose my conclusions for public discussion and review, once those have no faced any criticism or arguments refuting their value, I create a pdf file and a DOI publishing them at my profile in Researchgate. In order to maintain their genuineness and legitimate innovative nature, I keep its original state so those can be compared with any copy made by any third party at any time. For your own references and review over its originality over time with respect to other publications via scientific papers and/or news reports, you can compare the publications at the blog and researchgate with the records archived:
- at the web.archive.org site http://web.archive.org/web/*/diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com
- ResearchGate profile https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Diego_Fdez-Sevilla
- LinkedIn Public shares and re-shares testing validation over time https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/diego-fdez-sevilla-phds-research-reach/
- Full Index of Analyses and Timeline https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com
- AGU: https://www.linkedin.com/groups/2196290/2196290-5986214897078272003
- NOAA: https://www.linkedin.com/groups/156873/156873-5986214921963077634
________2023 Research FOLLOW-UP ___________
In research what it is relevant it is not always what it is New, but what it doesn´t get old. One stage of research comes when looking into offering something New; New data, New interpretations, New methods, making “the News”, being the First … And then, once the “New” has been offered, it is all about confirmation, re-evaluation, validation, review and application. In my line of research, at one stage I have offered New interpretations on climatic developments adopting New points of view addressing New synergistic interactions delivering New Conclusions and Implications in weather patterns, atmospheric circulation and biotic performance. In a following stage I have re-shared all those previous “New assessments” to be contrasted against real time developments been unfolded in the next years. In 2014 I was told by a lead scientist in climatic developments Prof. Jennifer Francis: “The topic you’ve written about is extremely complicated and many of your statements have not yet been verified by peer-reviewed research.” I was challenged for a deeper understanding of the state of the research, knowledge of atmospheric dynamics and analyses supporting my statements.
Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Reply to Prof. Jennifer Francis (February 2015) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1975.7602/1
After 200+ analyses 2014-23, would it be enough?diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com
This year 2022/23 the progression of the climatic dynamics seen show to support the conclusions discussed throughout all the analyses performed in the line of research presented in this blog:
- There is no need for the Polar Vortex to be broken in order to have polar weather at Mid-Latitudes.
- The ENSO is not a driver of convective forcing over the NH,
- Convective forcing from Mid-latitudinal towards the Arctic circulation has wear off the gradients of temperature generating a strong Polar Jet Stream.
- Arctic warming occurs through atmospheric intrusions from Mid Latitudes,
- The collapse of the Polar Jet Stream has opened Arctic circulation to Mid-Latitudinal circulation intrusions allowing Trans-Arctic circulation between Pacific and Atlantic Basins.
- The global Temperature measured is the resultant of mixing patterns in the atmosphere,
- Therefore an increase in mixing dynamics creates a pause in temperature raise,
- An increase in mixing dynamics show an increase in convective forcing,
- Convective forcing is the work resultant from an increase in atmospheric energy being incorporated in free state,
- The incorporation and spread of energy in free state into the atmosphere is carried and released by water vapour
- An increase of water vapour in atmospheric circulation requires an increase in the thermal capacity of the atmosphere
- The process of enhancing the thermal capacity of the atmosphere comes by increasing the concentration of GHGs, conc of aerosols and land surface albedo.
- Several processes carried out by human activityare linked with the previous assessment: human activity reduces the capacity of the biotic environment to fix energy from free state into inert state by reducing biochemical processing and storage (CxHxOx photosynthesis and biomass) and increases atmospheric concentrations of GHGs by releasing CO2 and H2O into the atmosphere. Also, land use and covertransformations increase albedo, industrial activities increase aerosols and the compartmentalization of water affects water cycles.
- In a thermodynamic system the energetic pool is the sum of the amount of energy in free statecapable of doing work, and the energy fixed in an inert form as part of mass. The amount of energy in free state is proportional to the amount of energy fixed in inert form as mass (E=mc2). The release of energy from its inert form increases the amount of energy in free state to do work. Energy is not created, neither destroyed. The transformation of the three phases of the environment forced by human activities, gaseous (atmosphere), liquid (water cycle) and solid (land use and cover), increases the amount of energy in free state capable of promoting all forms of work; convective forcing, strong winds, solid and liquid precipitation, lightning, dust storms, heat waves, cold displacements, and ultimately, and increase in atmospheric mixing in altitude and across latitudes.
Would you like for this line of research to keep going, please consider to nominate it for an award for funds at
BBVA Fundation. FRONTIERS OF KNOWLEDGE AWARDS
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Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. 
Follow-up on current line of research at LinkedIn recalling the present publication to be put in contrast with current developments throughout 2023 and winter 2024.
Published on the 10 February 2024 at my profile
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/diegofernandezsevilla_6-years-ago-one-day-like-today-i-used-activity-7162197430975868928-bGEB
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