Climate and Hadley Circulation. Research Update May 2016 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)
(Updated 10 May2016. Overall conclusions)
We have already seen that some data and scientific publications offered have shown later to walk over thin ice. Sometimes allegedly blamed due to political agendas, other times due to methodological lack of agreement, also data sets with weaknesses, or simply because “the data was there” but there was no theoretical approach, conceptual framework or idealised mechanism able to explain the meaning behind it.
In this scenario, in order to avoid carrying unknown bias by following lines of research and conclusions adopted by other scientists, I decided to build my own conceptual and experimental framework, define an independent line of research and choose my own methodology to perform data research and analyses.
So far my research has lead me to conclude that there is a real mechanism shifting the atmospheric circulation, primarily in the North Hemisphere. Such shift has shown through a major weakening in the barrier separating Arctic circulation from Mid-Latitudes and the Equator, the Polar Jet Stream.
This weakening in the latitudinal thermal contrast creating the steadiness of the Polar Jet Stream can be associated with the increase of anthropogenic GHG’s (C13 and C12) being spread all over the atmosphere, not just at a specific altitude.
The incorporation of those gases into atmospheric circulation at equator and mid-latitudes (wild fires/industry) enhance the thermal conductivity of the atmosphere. Such effect increases the capacity for the atmosphere to carry energy, mostly identified in the form of temperature (but not only). An elevation of temperature in the atmosphere increments the capacity of the atmosphere to absorb and transport a strong natural GHG’s which is water on its gaseous form. The process of evaporating water captures energy within water molecules. This energy gets incorporated in the energetic pool of the atmosphere as thermal energy (latent heat) also with the mass of water molecules increasing the gravitational energy available. The difference between the thermal energy carried by masses of air generate winds and ultimately, it is such contrast makes the fuel for the kinetic energy generating Jet Currents like the Polar Jet stream.
My approach, data, observations and analyses indicate that the weakening of the North Polar Jet Stream is not due to processes of early snow precipitation as it proposes the theory of Artic Amplification, but instead, due to the weathering effect exerted by warmer mid-latitudes pushing towards the Poles.
Continuity developing a line of research
In 2013 I started to develop a new approach analysing climatic developments observing atmospheric dynamics assessing its behaviour as the result of being a medium containing an increasing amount of energy thanks to the GHG’s effect.
In Oct 2014 I published what is my interpretation over the actual developments in atmospheric dynamics and climatic drift:
“The theory that I have developed follows “in alignment” with the work published previously by scientists Judah Cohen, Masato Mori, Colin Summerhayes, Coumou and Ted Shepherd. Their work supported the theory of that early snowfall over Asia increases albedo leading to heat retention in the atmosphere provoking Arctic ice to melt. Their studies points to decreasing snow cover as the cause diminishing albedo enhancing heat absorption. Ultimately, their approach theorize that such enhanced capacity of the Arctic to absorb heat would lead to “amplify” atmospheric heat absorption already being fuelled with GHGs. And therefore, such increase in atmospheric temperature would reduce the thermal contrast required for a strong jet stream and consequently originating disturbance in atmospheric weather patterns associated.
What I propose with my hypothesis is that the so called “Arctic Amplification” is a synchronic consequence altogether with other environmental phenomena (ENSO, NAO, etc…) and not the trigger. I defend that “Artic Amplification” is a symptom and not a causation of atmospheric dynamics. Arctic circulation does not amplify a process but on the contrary, it reflects the consequence of absorbing the influence from mid-latitude conditions.”
I am looking at the implications of having the Arctic circulation not “Amplifying” but “Absorbing” constant increases in atm CO2 and Water vapour. In my approach, instead of looking at what happens in the Arctic as the origin of a chain reaction, I look at what happens in the Arctic just as a side effect (with its own implications) of a more wide process resultant from a reduction between the differential gradients of energy driving the atmospheric global circulation, being water vapour the carrier of the energy being dispersed all over the atmosphere.”
Back in Nov 2014 I also defended the existence of a “bottom-up” forcing from mid-latitudes circulation in altitude disrupting the Polar Vortex instead of following the mainly accepted argument assuming a down-forcing pressure from a broken polar vortex:
Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) November 14, 2014 DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2500.0488
Here I hypothesise that it can be considered that the volume of the atmospheric system accommodating increasing conc. of GHGs and water vapour has expanded from sub-polar regions into Polar Circulation. Consequently, following the second law of thermodynamics, an added space for those gasses to expand would allow for the atmosphere containing GHGs and water vapour to retain more heat with no increase in atmospheric temperature. Which it could explain why under increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 there has been a so called “pause” in global warming.
Increasing amounts of atmospheric CO2 and Water vapour would incorporate forms of energy not only into cyclonic events, increasing its strength, but also it would increment the energy in the atmosphere around it. A scenario in which the difference between the energy carried by an atmospheric event and the atmosphere surrounding it is high, the energy in a cyclonic event would dissipate faster, losing strength and resilience. However, we can see in the North Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, cyclonic and anticyclonic events building what it has being called “blocking patterns”, growing from near surface level (1000 hPa) to levels as high as the Jet Stream (250 hPa).
For all of these reasons, I see a reasonable link between the recent observed disturbance in the atmospheric circulation of the Jet Stream, without the Polar Vortex being broken yet, and the possibility of being the result of a decrease in the differential gradients of energy between cyclonic events and atmospheric barriers like the Jet Stream. Under such scenario, the Jet stream loses stability becoming wobbly, allowing more frequent exchange of masses of air between both cold and warm sides.
In order to contrast the accuracy of my approach with the atmospheric events being under observation, and with the encouragement from a brief exchange of emails with Jennifer Francis, in February 2015 I published a review over my own assessments:
“The differential thermal contrast between Polar and subtropical regions creates a barrier, or Jet Stream, separating both parts of the atmospheric circulation. The influence of CO2, increasing the heat absorption capacity of the atmosphere, would be amplified at Subtropical regions due to the synergistic relation with other GHG, Water Vapour, which is less abundant at latitudes with low temperatures. This situation would be contained momentarily by the barrier generated from such thermal contrast between both areas, Sub-tropical and Polar, in a feedback loop accumulating heat absorption by constant release of CO2 and increasing concentrations of Water vapour.
However, this scenario of constant contact of one side of the Jet stream with the other, and the global circulation in altitude, slowly but steady it would wear off the differential thermal contrast between regions weakening the strength of the Jet Stream barrier.”
“With the weakening of the Jet Stream, the volume of space to be occupied by warm air would expand into the Polar regions. Accordingly, highs associated with the subsidence of the Hadley cell move several degrees of latitude toward the poles even before the summer heat arrives (see following image on Pressure at Mean Sea Level 5th and 6th March 2015).”
“The expansion would allow for the atmosphere to keep absorbing energy through GHGs without increasing its temperature globally whereas increasing atmospheric pressure at higher latitudes.”
“That could explain the “pause” in global Temperature raise and yet, why it has not dropped. The weakening of the Jet Stream would allow more frequent intrusions of masses of air from both sides, inducing sudden and extreme changes in weather patterns for Northern and Southern latitudes. Once the barrier weakens, “warm and wet” currents of air would reach further North being dragged by High pressures moving at higher latitudes without the opposition of the Jet Stream.”
In January 2016 I compared my assessments between the events observed through the winter of 2014/15 and winter 2015/16:
European weather. Old News, Same News? by Diego Fdez-Sevilla January 15, 2016
So far the chain of events happening this year are following a common pattern with what we saw last two winters. First, downpours and strong winds, next, flooding, and after, periods of cold temp and snow. And everything shares a key point. They are “concentrated” in time, location and quantity. Also, pressure systems are developing moving across latitudes more frequently than the longitudinal patterns associated with the traditional belts described by Hadley cells in global circulation.
Since 2013, and after having decided to publish my new approach assessing the developments in the global circulation and associated climatic components, I have kept constantly updating those assessments, integrating the new weather events identified, and adding new synergistic implications derived from them with biotic components in our environment.
As recent as yesterday 5 May 2016, a new study seems to support the validity of my research.
Following the recent publication at the AGU’s website “A new analysis of 30 years of satellite data suggests that a previously observed trend of high altitude clouds in the mid-latitudes shifting toward the poles is caused primarily by the expansion of the tropics.”
Expanding tropics pushing high altitude clouds towards poles, new study finds. AGU
George Tselioudis, a climate scientist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University in New York City, was interested in which air currents were shifting clouds at high altitude – between about three and a half and six miles high – toward the poles.
The previous suggested reason was that climate change was shifting storms and the powerful air currents known as the jet streams – including the one that traverses the United States – toward the poles, which in turn were driving the movement of the clouds.
What they discovered was that the poleward shift of the clouds, which occurs in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, connected more strongly with the expansion of the tropics, defined by the general circulation Hadley cell, than with the movement of the jets.
“What we find, and other people have found it as well, is that the sinking branch of the Hadley cell, as the climate warms, tends to be moving poleward,” said Tselioudis. “It’s like you’re making the tropical region bigger.” And that expansion causes the tropical air currents to blow into the high altitude clouds, pushing them toward the poles, he said. The results have been accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.
Sorry but I don´t have access to the full paper so I leave here the abstract. I would appreciate if anybody can send me the full paper by email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com
“Midlatitude cloud shifts, their primary link to the Hadley cell, and their diverse radiative effects”
We investigate the interannual relationship among clouds, their radiative effects, and two key indices of the atmospheric circulation: the latitudinal positions of the Hadley cell edge and the midlatitude jet. From reanalysis data and satellite observations, we find a clear and consistent relationship between the width of the Hadley cell and the high cloud field, statistically significant in nearly all regions and seasons. In contrast, shifts of the midlatitude jet correlate significantly with high cloud shifts only in the North Atlantic region during the winter season. While in that region and season poleward high cloud shifts are associated with shortwave radiative warming, over the Southern Oceans during all seasons they are associated with shortwave radiative cooling. Finally, a trend analysis reveals that poleward high cloud shifts observed over the 1983–2009 period are more likely related to Hadley cell expansion, rather than poleward shifts of the midlatitude jets.
Author’s note (Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
I believe that I have helped to open the eyes of some scientists towards looking into environmental issues with a broader mind set, and that I have shown specific concepts, data, methods and scenarios to consider in present and future analyses. It is time to look at the picture generated by data with more than one perspective in order to see “the old environment and the young one”, the new one using new perspectives integrating old concepts.
Several studies have already followed paths which I have pointed out in my research (see follow Link)) But always, the relation between those articles and my work is missing and it seems to be a mere coincidence that new conceptual frames appear in scientific publications despite the fact of having monitored visits to this blog from institutions and locations related with the authors…
If you wonder about the “agenda” behind my research, I am in a catch 22 situation, professionally and personally.
On a professional level, my CV can not be competitive to have access to research positions due to lack of publications which I can not increase because I don´t have access to a research position.
In 2009, after 6 years involved in research abroad, I left my career in academia due to family matters and I came back to Spain. When those were resolved my love for research made me explore the possibilities to focus my life back into research. However, without publishing articles in peer review journals my candidature gets pull out from selection processes in research positions due to my lack on having enough articles. Meanwhile, even producing material with intellectual value to be part of the state of knowledge in climatic assessments, without holding a position in a research institution paying contribution to scientific publishing platforms, the academic system makes it impossible for me to publish articles in scientific journals. So my CV can not be competitive to have access to research positions due to lack of publications which I can not increase because I don´t have access to a research position. And yet, my professional profile is good enough to be consulted by scientific journals as peer reviewer…
So my agenda is to make my research accessible to the public in order to offer it for an open public review looking for it to stand on its own under the judgement of all researchers willing to look at it. May be in that way, my actions will speak louder than my CV, and by acquiring the recognition on my research from fellow scientists and professionals, I might get the support that I don´t have currently, getting a position and access to resources and people to keep growing professionally.
But also, independently from any career prospects, and despite the risk of seeing my work being mimicked without recognition, I feel an inherent ethical pressure to publish what I have found in my line of research because involves developments conflicting with the state of well-being for all those around us.
I believe that the assessments that I present have the potential to enhance the state of knowledge in environmental developments, increasing the pace at which science must understand what it is going on in order to foresee, prepare and adapt to changes.
So, as you can see, in my agenda, whatever I do, I have something to lose. With those whom like my work I risk seeing how they take it and use it as theirs. And with those who don´t like it, I risk to put at stake my professional credentials… that is my agenda.
The developments in atmospheric circulation observed at the present time seem to keep supporting my assessments not only on the Hadley circulation. Accordingly, the evolution of the atmospheric dynamics addressed throughout my line of research highlights the dominance in the directionality of the influence of atmospheric conditions at Mid-Latitude into Arctic circulation. Something which goes opposite to the directionality defended by the Theory of Arctic Amplification.
Ultimately, based on my research, the implications derived from seeing Mid-Latitudinal climatic regimes moving higher in latitude incorporates relevant uncertainties, not only over the developments of atmospheric dynamics, but more importantly, over the development of feedback loops with terrestrial ecosystems.
Considering atmospheric and terrestrial interactions conformed by Biotic and non-biotic components and processes, and based on the developments pointed out through my research, those synergistic interactions have the potential to develop patterns in environmental evolution which will be sustained only temporally, in a period of transition.
Since the Arctic has the lowest energy pool of the entire North Hemisphere, and any process of amplification requires an investment of energy aside the energy being received, the conclusions delivered by my line of research dismisses any type of amplification in the Arctic circulation. Moreover, following the arguments applied in previous discussions over atmospheric dynamics and ENSO circulation, the amount of energy being absorbed at the Arctic would have an indirect effect over the conditions at the most energised part of the atmosphere, the Equator. There, at the Equator, is where we might see in the near future, the use of energy amplifying processes yet being considered too mild to become relevant.
Some other current atmospheric events seem to support previous assessments. The location of the highs over the Pacific and the Atlantic are the same to as previous years and two low pressures have been hovering in the last month over the Atlantic and in front the Iberian peninsula, with enough energy to make them resilient in time and active through days, without dissipating their energy or being displaced to the East.
Furthermore, contrasts of temperature continue to be associated with the behaviour of the weak Polar Jet Stream in agreement with previous assessments.
In order to defend intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email. firstname.lastname@example.org
Since October 2013 I have been studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.
Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License, WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.
- New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on October 21, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-k3
- Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on November 14, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-mt
- State of the Polar Vortex. Broken? From 29 Nov 2014 to 5th Jan 2015 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla). Posted on November 29, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-o7
- Gathering data to make visible the invisible (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on December 22, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-pN
- Probability in the atmospheric circulation dictating the Weather (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on January 15, 2015. http://wp.me/p403AM-rm
- Meteorological Outlook Feb 2015 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on February 7, 2015. http://wp.me/p403AM-sU
- Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Posted on February 10, 2015. http://wp.me/p403AM-to
- Drops of Weather. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 7, 2015
- Steering climate´s course (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 27, 2015
- Climate. Looking at the forest for the trees (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 9, 2015
- Matching Features Between Land Surface and Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 23, 2015
- Domesticating Nature. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 7, 2015
- A roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 14, 2015
- Talking about climate (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 12, 2015
- News from an Ecosystem (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 20, 2015
- In climate it is becoming Less probable to not have a High probability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 29, 2015
- Drinking from the source (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 5, 2015
- Communication takes more than just publishing thoughts. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 9, 2015
- Extreme climatic events, implications for projections of species distributions and ecosystem structure (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 18, 2015
- The scope of Environmental Science and scientific thought. From Thought-driven to Data-driven, from Critical Thinking to Data Management. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 26, 2015
- Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Drift. Are we there yet? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 2, 2015
- Lateral thinking. From Micro to Macro (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 4, 2015
- Something for the curious minds. Climate and Streamlines (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 17, 2015
- Solar Activity and Human Activity, Settling Their Environmental Liability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 24, 2015
- Atmospheric composition and thermal conductivity? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)August 6, 2015
- Latitudinal barriers and typhoons (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)August 13, 2015
- The Earth is Ticking (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)August 20, 2015
- What if, the relevant bit lies hidden on identifying the pattern behind similarities instead of trying to match anomalies? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)September 3, 2015
- A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla).September 8, 2015
- Sensing Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)September 22, 2015
- InFormAtion. The “Act” of “Giving Form” to “Knowledge” (by Diego fdez-Sevilla)September 30, 2015
- Arctic Intake of Water Vapour (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 7, 2015
- SST Anomalies and Heat Waves. Are They Not All Just Heat Displacements? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 16, 2015
- Discussing Climatic Teleconnections. Follow Up On My Previous Research (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 21, 2015
- Follow-up on Arctic circulation 30 Oct 2015 ( by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) October 30, 2015
- There is Ice or Frost In Antarctica? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) November 5, 2015
- Starts Raining Drops of Winter at Mid-Latitudes. The new Autumn? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) November 10, 2015
- Press release. Ask NASA (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) November 12, 2015
- Following the Behaviour of the Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) November 19, 2015
- What Is Wrong With The Concept “Bio”? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) November 26, 2015
- Energy. Looking For Sources of Something We Waste. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) December 3, 2015
- SOILS. The Skeleton Holding The Muscle On Our Ecosystems (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) December 9, 2015
- Could It Be El Niño The New “Wolf” Coming? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) December 11, 2015
- Climate and weather December 2015. Another Polar Vortex another Heat Wave? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) December 18, 2015
- New insides on old concepts (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) December 23, 2015
- Atmospheric Dynamics And Shapes (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) January 13, 2016
- European weather. Old News, Same News? by Diego Fdez-Sevilla January 15, 2016
- Observational events on atmospheric dynamics. A follow-up assessment over the theory proposed over Energetic gradients by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. January 29, 2016
- North American Weather. Old News, Same News? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) January 20, 2016
- Observed Atmospheric Dynamics. A follow-up assessment over the theory proposed on Energetic gradients by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. January 29, 2016
- (updated 11-18 Feb2016) Polar Vortex, Old News, Same News? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) February 4, 2016
- Forecasting Past Events. Snow Coming to Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) February 12, 2016
- Do You Believe in the Value of Your Work? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) February 23, 2016
- Forecasts For Ecosystems (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) February 25, 2016
- Seasonality Spring 2016. Continuous follow-up on my previous research assessing atmospheric dynamics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) March 3, 2016
- Tangled in Words. Atmospheric Dynamics, Stefan Boltzmann Calculations and Energy Balance (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) March 10, 2016
- Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) March 22, 2016
- Plant growth, CO2, Soil and Nutrients. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) March 31, 2016
- Atmospheric Dynamics, GHG’s, Thermal Conductivity and Polar Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) April 6, 2016
- Feedback. Have Your Say. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) April 14, 2016
- Plant an Idea and Then a Tree… But Which Ones? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) April 22, 2016
- (updated 28/April/2016) Severe weather warning 27 April 2016 USA (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) April 28, 2016
- Research Update May 2016 (by Diego Fdez-sevilla) May 6, 2016
- Scientifically Challenged (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 12, 2016
- Another roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 13, 2015 May 13, 2016
- Our Environment. One Vision and Many Thoughts. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 20, 2016
- Atmospheric Circulation and the Mixing Zone. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 26, 2016