Aug 2016 Follow-up on previous assessments. Atmospheric Dynamics, Temperature Displacements, Atmospheric Mixing (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)


Aug 2016 Follow-up on Previous Assessments. Atmospheric Dynamics, Temperature Displacements, Atmospheric Mixing (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

water

From my point of view North America is seeing similar developments which have had, and still are, occurring in Europe. And those are related with the composition of the atmosphere (ref1) and ocean/continental contrasts(ref2) than solar forcing (ref3 and category Solar Activity).

Ref1.- Atmospheric Composition and Thermal Conductivity. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) 2015/08/06

Ref2.- Looking at the influence of continentality in atmospheric circulation. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) 2014/05/13

Ref3.- Solar Activity and Human Activity, Settling Their Environmental Liability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) 2015/07/24

Globally, both dynamics observed in the NH describe movements of masses of air “carrying” heat into northern latitudes (and altitudes) (ref4 and ref5).

ref4.-(UPGRADED 24th March2015) Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. 2015/02/10

ref5.- Observed Atmospheric Dynamics. A follow-up assessment over the theory proposed on Energetic gradients by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. 2016/01/29

Based on previous research shared in this blog (ref6), my assessment is that the Equator is amplifying (ref6) the effect of having the Arctic absorbing the added heat being displaced from mid-latitudes (ref7).

ref6.- Framework and Timeline

ref7.- Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) 2016/03/22

ref8.- A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla). 2015/09/08

Altogether, I believe that the present patterns seen are related with the dynamics avoiding the concentration of energetic atmospheric events in form of hurricanes, etc. (ref9).

ref9.- Atmospheric Dynamics, GHG’s, Thermal Conductivity and Polar Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)2016/04/06

The implications of seeing those dynamics repeating in the recent years are part of the discussions addressed in the publications shared in this blog. I believe that all of them are representative of a global assessment performed with independence, and with conclusions persistent over time despite the distance between the day of publication and the present day 26 Aug 2016 (ref10).

ref10.- Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Drift. Are we there yet? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) 2015/07/02

Peer review publications are starting to appear supporting the assessments presented in the line of research published in this blog (ref11).

ref11.- Peer reviewed articles supporting previous assessments and research published in this blog. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)2016/07/28

And the atmospheric events being unfolded through 2016 (ref12) until the present seem to add value to those assessments previously addressed.

ref12.- Seasonality Spring 2016. Continuous follow-up on my previous research assessing atmospheric dynamics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) 2016/03/03

Recent atmospheric events

Energy Gradients (ref 4)

The U.S. coast is in an unprecedented hurricane drought — why this is terrifying. By Jason Samenow. August 4, 2016. (Partial Extract from washingtonpost.com)

Hurricanes, large and small, have eluded U.S. shores for record lengths of time. As population and wealth along parts of the U.S. coast have exploded since the last stormy period, experts dread the potential damage and harm once the drought ends.

Three historically unprecedented droughts in landfalling U.S. hurricanes are presently active.A major hurricane hasn’t hit the U.S. Gulf or East Coast in more than a decade. A major hurricane is one containing maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph and classified as Category 3 or higher on the 1-5 Saffir-Simpson wind scale. (Hurricane Sandy had transitioned to a post tropical storm when it struck New Jersey in 2012, and was no longer classified as a hurricane at landfall, though it had winds equivalent to a Category 1 storm.) The streak has reached 3,937 days, longer than any previous drought by nearly two years.

Twenty-seven major hurricanes have occurred in the Atlantic Ocean basin since the last one, Wilma, struck Florida in 2005. The odds of this are 1 in 2,300, according to Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher from Colorado State University.

Florida hasn’t seen a hurricane of any intensity since 2005’s Wilma, which is shocking considering it averages about seven hurricane landfalls per decade. The current drought in the Sunshine State, nearing 11 years, is almost twice as long as the previous longest drought of six years (from 1979-1985).

Sixty-seven hurricanes have tracked through the Atlantic since Florida’s last hurricane impact. The odds of this are about 1 in 550, Klotzbach said.

Even the entire Gulf of Mexico, and its sprawling coast from Florida to Texas, have been hurricane-free for almost three full years, the longest period since record-keeping began 165 years ago (in 1851). The last hurricane to traverse the Gulf waters was Ingrid, which made landfall in Mexico as a tropical storm, in September 2013.

Scientists have no solid explanation for the lack of hurricane landfalls. The number of storms forming in the Atlantic over the past decade or so has been close to normal, but many have remained over the ocean or hit other countries rather than the United States.

A study published by the American Geophysical Union in 2015 said the lack of major hurricane landfalls boiled down to dumb luck rather than a particular weather pattern. “I don’t believe there is a major regime shift that’s protecting the U.S.,” said study lead author Timothy Hall from NASA.

A “recurring” area of low pressure near the U.S. East Coast in recent years may have repelled some storms, argue Klotzbach and Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami. But McNoldy still says “luck is really 99 percent of it [the drought].”

Adam Sobel, a climate scientist at Columbia University, cautions that the drought in no way invalidates global warming predictions or the expectation that storms will grow more intense in future decades. The “notion that the hurricane drought in the Atlantic has somehow disproved the consensus projections of climate science is wrong, because the drought is still a relatively short-term fluctuation in a single basin, while the projections are for long-term global trends,” he writes on his blog.

And as impressively long as the various droughts are, McNoldy said there have been numerous storms that have almost ended each of them in recent years.

So the drought is hanging on by a thread. A single major hurricane striking Florida’s Gulf Coast, McNoldy said, would break all three standing droughts simultaneously.

Equatorial Amplification (ref8)

Atlantic tropical wave could intensify and threaten Florida by Sunday. By Jason Samenow. August 23, 2016. (Partial Extract from washingtonpost.com)

The tropical Atlantic Ocean is buzzing with activity and one disturbance, in particular, could strengthen and strike Florida in six to eight days. It could even become a hurricane.

The disturbance, known as 99L, is several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands and headed westward. It is forecast to reach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico in the next one to two days where it is likely to unleash heavy rain and strong winds.

The main concern is what happens to it after it passes the islands and continues to the west and northwest. It will then enter very warm waters and atmospheric conditions more favorable for strengthening.

Many forecast models now project this disturbance will head toward the east coast of Florida or just a bit to the north.

“Models are starting to agree more on a tropical cyclone near south-to-central Florida in the Sunday to Tuesday time frame,” says Brian McNoldy, Capital Weather Gang’s tropical weather expert.

But it’s not at all clear how strong it will become. Some models forecast the disturbance may strengthen little while others project it will become a hurricane, even a strong one.

For example, the European model predicts the disturbance will rapidly develop near the northern Bahamas this weekend, and make landfall in south Florida Sunday night. The GFS model, on the other hand, does not develop the system.

So it is not a sure thing a significant storm will strike the coast, but the possibility of a disruptive event looms.

“This storm has the potential to be a dangerous one for the Bahamas and the Southeast United States,” writes Jeff Masters, meteorologist at Weather Underground, noting near-record warm water temperatures of 84-86 degrees around the Bahamas. “[W]e have the potential for 99L — which has a large circulation — to rapidly intensify into a large major hurricane.”

John Morales, chief meteorologist from the NBC affiliate, countered it’s too soon to sound alarms. “At this formative stage nobody knows what 99L will do,” he tweeted.

This morning, the National Hurricane Center sent a plane into the disturbance and described it as “disorganized” and having “a poorly defined circulation”. It says the disturbance has just a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or named tropical storm in the next 48 hours but a 60 percent chance within five days. Masters thinks that’s conservative: “I think the five-day odds should be higher, at 70 percent.”

Should the disturbance strengthen into a hurricane and strike Florida, it would end a record 10-year hurricane drought in the Sunshine state.

Increment in the role of atmospheric Water in energetic weather events (Ref12).

When it rains, it pours. By Richard Cicone, Principal, ISCIENCES, L.L.C. From isciences.com

A few days ago on my way to Traverse City, along Hill Road near Rapid City I spied stacks and stacks of timber recently extracted from the local forest. These are the remains of mature trees mowed down by a derecho storm [1] that hit Michigan on August 2, 2015. The US Weather Service issued 17 warnings that day and recorded a 4.25 inch ball of hail near West Branch, the largest since records began in 1950 [2].

One hundred mile per hour winds accompanied by over two inches of precipitation extensively damaged forests and private properties, with estimates at $29.7 million in Leelanau and $15.4 million in Grand Traverse counties [3]. Many large trees were uprooted in scenic Glen Arbor near Sleeping Bear Sand Dunes on Lake Michigan, and local farmers suffered a heavy toll. The devastation was so extensive that our Governor declared a “state of disaster” in the region [4]. Glen Arbor is now back to normal but many fallen trees are still strewn on the landscape, and memories are etched with images of that dramatic storm.

Is this normal?
I grew up in Michigan and there are plenty of stories to tell about severe weather events, driving rains, tornadoes, and deep snowfalls. But it is different now.

In fact, precipitation events in the U.S. are often more intense than in the past. Scientists have examined changes in precipitation patterns in the U.S. documenting both increased levels of total precipitation and storms that deliver much more water than normal [6], [7]. The 2014 U.S. National Climate Assessment addresses this issue stating, “Heavy downpours are increasing nationally, especially over the last three to five decades. Largest increases are in the Midwest and Northeast. Increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected for all U.S. regions” [8]

The National Climate Data Center at NOAA provides a useful online tool to explore regional variations – the U.S. Climate Extremes Index [9]. Using the Index, Figure 1 (below) shows that in the Upper Midwest a much greater than normal proportion of precipitation is derived from extreme one day events (defined as the highest 10% of occurrences of cumulative daily precipitation) [10]

Equatorial waves and water vapour

Historic Flood Event in Louisiana From 20-30 Inches of Rain.By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson , August 14, 201. From  wunderground.com

Some of the 24-hour rains that fell on Friday in Louisiana (ending at 11AM CDT/16UTC) had a recurrence interval at over 500 years, according to Metstat. Topping the list of phenomenal rainfall amounts catalogued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center for the period 6:00 am CDT Tuesday, August 9, 2016, through 9:00 am CDT Sunday was 31.39” near Watson, Louisiana.

A tropical depression-like storm with tropical depression-like impacts
The storm system responsible for the record rains formed a distinct surface low just inland along the Alabama coast on August 11, with a central pressure of 1013 mb. By August 13, the low had drifted over northwest Louisiana, and intensified to a central pressure of 1007 mb. Like a tropical depression, the low had a warm core, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around the storm brought huge amounts of tropical moisture from the near record-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and northwest Atlantic northwards over land. The amount of moisture in the atmosphere over the Gulf Coast region over the past week has been nothing short of phenomenal. Over multiple days, soundings of the atmosphere collected by weather balloon from locations such as New Orleans have measured record or near-record amounts of precipitable water (the amount of moisture in the atmosphere over a given point), often in the 2.5” to 2.75” range; sounding data extends back to 1948 in most cases. Sunday morning’s precipitable water of 2.61” in Lake Charles, LA, was among the top-ten values on record for that station.


Three-day precipitation totals ending at 10 EDT Sunday, August 14, 2016 showed several areas of 20+ inches had fallen over portions of Louisiana. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.


Projected rainfall from 12Z (8:00 am EDT) Sunday, August 14, 2016, through 12Z Wednesday. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/WPC.

The northern flank of this historic flood event
Separate from the heavy rain along the central Gulf Coast, a band of sometimes-torrential rain has pulsated over the last several days along a pre-existing frontal zone along and north of the Ohio River, stretching roughly from Arkansas to Ohio. This pattern bears some of the fingerprints of a PRE—a “predecessor rain event.” As we noted in a post last October, PREs tend to develop along preexisting frontal boundaries a few hundred miles north of landfalling tropical cyclones, as prevailing winds funnel huge amounts of moisture northward from the cyclone and concentrate it along the frontal zone. One challenge with such events is nailing down the location of the frontal zone, which can oscillate north or south as a multi-day PRE unfolds. Late Sunday into Monday, the Gulf Coast low itself will begin migrating northward along the frontal zone, further raising the possibility of flooding rains. Flash flood watches extended on Sunday morning along a belt from northern Arkansas to extreme northwest Pennsylvania.

On Friday, torrential rains put a damper on the Illinois State Fair at the state capital, Springfield, where an all-time calendar-day rainfall record was set with 5.59” (beating 5.44” from September 8, 1926). Of that total, 3.44” fell in just one hour. Although some events had to be cancelled or rescheduled, no injuries to people or livestock were reported at the fair. Parts of the southwestern Chicago suburbs received 4-5” of rain on Friday.


MODIS image of a strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa south of Cabo Verde as seen on Sunday morning, August 14, 2014. A large region of African dust is visible from the coast of Africa extending over Cabo Verde. Image credit: NASA.

African tropical wave may develop late this week
NHC was not highlighting any Atlantic tropical weather threat areas in their 5-day Tropical Weather Outlook on Sunday morning. However, two of our reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis–the European and GFS models–showed that a strong tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Saturday night does have the potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week as it moves west to west-northwest at 15 mph into the central Atlantic. In their 00Z Sunday runs, about 30 – 50% of the members of the European and GFS model ensemble forecasts predicted development of this system into a tropical depression late this week.

When temperature become something else (ref13).  Lightning.

ref13.- When Temperature Becomes Something Else (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) 2016/05/30

A night of 7000 lightings in Galicia – North Spain. (Una noche de 7.000 rayos en Galicia.) EFE. 25/08/2016

(In Spanish From lavozdegalicia.es.

Between Wednesday 24, 2016 and this morning, thousands of lightning shook the community, the third largest figure since this phenomenon is measured.

The storms that have ravaged Galicia these days leave behind an impressive number: 7,000, the number of rays that fell between Wednesday and early Thursday in various parts of the community. The majority, some 6,359, took place the 24th Aug, but also the storms of the first hours of the 25th-night made their contribution, adding, between 00.00 and 02.00, 728 to the previous thousands.

According to an expert in data Meteogalicia , Àngeles Lago, this is the “third day with more lightnings” on the Galician territory since measurement began in January 2010. And gets pretty close to the second place on record with 7.113. As it can be seen on the map, one of the most affected provinces has been Pontevedra, which received 1,586 lightnings throughout Wednesday.

CONCLUSIONS

The implications of seeing those dynamics repeating in the recent years are part of the discussions addressed in other publications in the blog. I believe that all of them are representative of a global assessment with independence of the distance in time between the day of publication and the present. All the assessments seem to keep valid under the developments observed. However, always open for discussion.

Solar forcing.

It seems to be still a subject open for interpretation so, despite of having specific posts adrresing this topic, here is mine.

The structure of an stratification thermodynamically dependent (atmosphere) behaves within thresholds. Outside those, variations of factors interacyting are not relevant enough to drive changes.

One example which represents this point of view:

Water in a solid form maintains its structural integrity below 0 degrees Celsius under oscillations which do not reach above 0 degrees Celsius. You can increase radiation and induce a change in temperature between -13C and -6C and it will not affect the structural disposition of the molecules of water.

However, the threshold can be altered so with the same forcing from an external source of energy you can alter the integrity of the structure.

You can add impurities modifying the molecular structure of the solid water. And with it you can change albedo or chemical bonds.

If the block of solid ice contains black particles, the radiation has a different impact over the irradiance performance and thermodynamic equilibrium. And similarly, if you add salt into the block of water, the molecular disposition changes, the thermodynamic characteristics of the organization gets affected and with it the threshold to maintain the integrity of the structure.

Similarly to what salt does with the boiling and ice point of water, the composition of the atmosphere (greenhouse gasses and aerosols) affect its thermodynamic behaviour triggering changes in its organization and the patterns associated.

Winter is what we call when cold masses of air move from the poles to mid-latitudes. The frequency, persistence, range and extension for those masses of air moving across latitudes, and the patterns described, are directly related with the composition of the atmosphere and its thermodynamic behaviour.

Solar forcing is constant through time, space and surface. It reaches the Earth uninterrupted in its 50% of surface through the whole cycle around the sun. Claiming that its influence can be localized in a specific part of the Earth (North Hemisphere) and in a particular time of the cycle around the Sun (North hemispheric Winter) leaves completely unattended too many questions about the rest of the time and surface receiving the influence of the same force.

The amount of questions which are not addressed by such approach, as well as from the application of the Steffan-Bolztman equation (ref14), is what it makes me to consider to leave them aside from my line of research as major driving forces.

ref14.- Tangled in Words. Atmospheric Dynamics, Stefan Boltzmann Calculations and Energy Balance (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) 2016/03/10

So far, all the forces and mechanisms identified and discussed in the line of research presented through this blog seem to be enough to support the validity of my work. Even considering the limitations of my research from lack of resources, and its uncertainties as part of applying innovative and original assessments.

From A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla).

I believe that the present weather events, altogether with the tornado seen in Venice on July, represent some of the new “Drops of Weather” coming over to say that the Summer, as we know it, is coming to an end.

The reason behind it seems to be the sporadic and unpredictable behaviour of the Jet stream, which not only is wobbly in latitude, but also in the vertical profile of the atmosphere. Accordingly, we can see that when it comes to lower levels from 300hPa induces alterations in the thermodynamical behaviour of the tropospheric circulation. In turn, when this cold air touches the lower level of our atmosphere, activates the energy accumulated in the Water vapour contained in it as latent heat, delivering new forms of energy; kinetic provoking strong winds, electrostatic generating lightnings and potential carried in the mass of all the water coming from its gaseous state into liquid or solid precipitation.

I have already discussed what is my theory about what it is happening that it is generating such a wobbly jet stream in latitude and altitude. This theory was published in a previous post and it points out the incorporation of masses of water vapour into polar latitudes as consequence of CO2 forcing as the cause wearing out the strength of the Polar Jet Stream.

I also have suggested that such incorporation of masses of water vapour into Polar Latitudes follow channels which are linked with persistent cyclonic events in the Atlantic and the Pacific. The present patterns seen in the circulation over the Pacific and the Atlantic are consistent with those proposed in this theory.

Ultimately, if this theory is right and weather patterns are incorporating water vapour into Polar latitudes, it would affect:

  • The strength of the Polar Jet Stream becoming wobbly from the bottom up, from tropospheric circulation forcing instead of from the stratospheric Polar vortex, (more here)
  • Introduction of water vapour into Arctic Polar latitudes would decrease temperature gradients in the Pole reducing ice and snow cover, (more here)
  • that would induce ice melting which in turn would affect SST and Oceanic circulation in the Atlantic and Pacific. That would explain the cold anomaly in SST in the North Atlantic, thus the AMOC and global thermohialine circulation going around the Antarctic and arriving at the Pacific.(more here)
  • Arctic Polar masses of air getting warmed up would become involved in translatitudinal circulation from the Atlantic and the Pacific through the Arctic, in a breathing like cycle. That would open a new channel for balancing gradients of atmospheric pressure between the atmospheric masses of air above both Oceans. That would explain the synchronicity between Low pressures observed in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, (more here).
  • An interconnection between Atlantic and Pacific atmospheric circulation through the Arctic would affect Equatorial winds. That would have an impact over the distribution of SST being dominated by them, being the most relevant the ENSO.(more here and here)
  • Furthermore,  new channels breaking the restriction of keeping warm masses of air bellow Polar circulation would release the thermodynamical limits for equatorial latitudes to absorb water and heat, therefore, increasing thermal conductivity towards upper latitudes. That would explain heat waves moving upward in latitude.(more here and here)
  • At the same time, incorporating the possibility for subtropical circulation to occupy the volume of space at Polar latitudes would allow the global circulation to absorb more energy without steep increases in temperature thanks to the extra volume added to be occupied.(more here)
  • An homogenization in the amount of energy carried in the atmosphere by water vapour would induce a decrease between gradients of energy. That would allow atmospheric events to persist in location and time due to the reduced capacity of the atmosphere to dissipate its energy.(more here)
  • The amount of energy being accommodated by the atmosphere would behave like electricity, being tamed by the capacity of the surroundings to absorb and conduct it. But, like a short circuit, the energy contained in the atmosphere, could overwhelm the capacity for the surroundings to cope with it in a smoothly manner, triggering abrupt discharges from energy in latent heat form carried by the water vapour, into potential energy carried by the masses of water in form of hail and  rain, and kinetic energy generating strong winds. All those forms of energy capable of decimating crops, houses and even killing animals as we have seen in some videos in this post.(more here)

Present Atmospheric conditions and dynamics

North Hemisphere

GFS ARCTIC T2 anom_2016-08-24 init Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD

GFS NH WS250 2016-08-24 init Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD

Dynamics over the Antarctica.

ref 15.- There is Ice or Frost In Antarctica? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) 2015/11/05

 

GFS SH T2_anom_2016-08-24 init Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD

Most definitely, I believe that the climate in our Earth is what it lies between waters. Between cold waters and warms waters, between waters in the atmosphere or those in the ground inland or at the oceans. Altogether, our climate lies on those processes moving energy between waters in the form of gas, liquid or solid.

If my approach and assessments are correct, the expectation comes with the applicability over unfolding developments. Based on those assessments I would expect to see the present 99L system to trigger vast amounts of rain without developing a hurricane conformation. Furthermore, it might become very resilient and mobile, with the capacity to move across the Atlantic basin reaching Europe with enough energy to deliver more rain, or moving at higher latitudes above the ocean.

Lets see.

update 29 Aug2016_________________________________________

Invest 99L Finally Develops Into Tropical Depression 9 in the Florida Straits. By: Jeff Masters , 12:11 AM GMT on August 29, 2016.

“After spending ten days in meteorological limbo-land frustrating forecasters as an “Invest”, 99L finally developed into Tropical Depression Nine, confirmed a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft late Sunday afternoon. But the storm isn’t done perplexing us yet—the model predictions for the future intensity of the storm remain wildly divergent, even if we now have growing confidence that this storm will track into the coast of Florida north of Tampa on Thursday.”

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/invest-99l-finally-develops-into-tropical-depression-9-in-the-florida-

Closing remarks

Meteorologists forecast the development of specific events in location and time. I am just talking about trends and expected behaviour in a global picture based on my line of research. I believe that the “disorganization” shown by the system 99L developing over the Tropic Atlantic and the erratic behaviour seen in other systems, could be described as a lack of definition/organization in the gradients of energy shaping the formation of cells as well as the lack of well defined contrasts with those in the surroundings driving their paths. The interpretation that I propose might be too simplistic and complex at the same time. With an increase in the amount of Energy being introduced in the atmosphere (energy carried by GHGs and water vapour), it becomes more difficult to build strong well defined contrasts between gradients of energy due to an energetic overcharge of the surroundings. Such interpretation increases the chances of adding into the equation an increased probability of seeing more frequently other  forms of energetic discharge than those in form of wind. Thus, precipitation and lightning.

This scenario brings new patterns of atmospheric developments in shape and location, and it will require to adjust models and interpretations over the scenarios unfolding.

Lightning strike kills more than 300 reindeer in Norway

Update 01 Sept 2016_________________________________________

“The Threat From Tropical Storm Hermine People Aren’t Talking About” by Marshall Shepherd. forbes.com

The first day of meteorological fall will likely bring a landfalling tropical cyclone to the United States. Tropical Storm Hermine is in the Gulf of Mexico and poses a threat to parts of Florida, South Georgia and the Carolinas. At some point today the storm “may” even become a category 1 hurricane. If it does, Senior Digital Meteorologist at Weather.com Jon Erdman tweeted,

3 #hurricane streaks may end tonight: Last U.S. landfall (Arthur July ’14). Last #Florida landfall (Wilma ’05). Last in Gulf (Ingrid ’13)

But even if it doesn’t, the public should not lose site of the threat potential associated with it as a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane. The word “hurricane” likely generates an additional “buzz,” but in this case the impacts are clear irrespective of what we call the storm. And as usual the “unsung” threat is water.

1-3 day rainfall totals forecast from Hermine. Source: National Hurricane Center.

1-3 day rainfall totals forecast from Hermine. Source: National Hurricane Center.

According to the latest National Hurricane Center public advisory, the storm famously and formerly known as “Invest 99L” has the potential to produce

“storm total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over portions of northwest Florida and southern Georgia through Friday, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. On Friday and Saturday, Hermine is expected to produce totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 10 inches possible across portions of eastern Georgia, South Carolina, and eastern North Carolina through Saturday. These rains may cause life-threatening flash flooding.”

Like many of you, I will continue to watch coverage of Hermine. And while the “wind” aspect of the storm often gets top-billing and is more telegenic, keep this information about excessive water in mind. I think the recent flooding in Louisiana is a poignant reminder of water’s destructive power.

Oh, I should also note that some forecast models are trying to stall Hermine off the Northeast coast of the United States early next week which could lead to a coastal flooding and rainfall threat in that region too. It certainly looks the 99L-to-Hermine legend might continue to grow.

And “turn around, don’t drown.”

Update on Hermine from the National Hurricane Center as of 5 am Thursday September 1st.

Update on Hermine from the National Hurricane Center as of 5 am Thursday September 1st.

______________________________________

The aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. So any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time of at least a month from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found refuting the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.

In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will help me in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.

PerspectiveSince October 2013 I have been studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.

Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License,  WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.

More assessments presenting chronologically the line of research published in this blog can be accessed in the category Framework and Timeline.

For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out):

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About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Citing This Site "Title", published online "Month"+"Year", retrieved on "Month""Day", "Year" from http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my previous work as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After couple of years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, I find myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my research. In the present competitive scenario, instead of just moving my cv and wait for my next opportunity to arrive, I have decided to invest also my energy and time in opening my own line of research showing what I am capable of. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this blog has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my work and the intellectual rights represented by the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in this line of research. Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome. In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2017, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2016. Filling in or Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/
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25 Responses to Aug 2016 Follow-up on previous assessments. Atmospheric Dynamics, Temperature Displacements, Atmospheric Mixing (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

  1. I really hope that my assessments are considered as an useful contribution, either by the value of the work behind it or by helping to enhance the state of the debate over present and future developments.

    I am not about being the one in the right against the wrong. And I don´t want to push any agenda.
    Since I am in job searching mode, by exposing myself and my assessments in the open, I have more to loose than to win.

    Every CV talks about all the good things that somebody has achieved. As a researcher there are few moments more awkward than being corrected at a public event and these do not show in a CV. However, by publishing openly and regularly my assessments at LinkedIn and my blog I have committed myself through the last 4 years to undertake a process of constant exposure to scrutiny and criticism.

    If I am wrong and things are other way different from what I shared in my assessments and point of view I would feel relieved. I do not think that anybody enjoys being right about things which might go wrong. If anything, I would be proud of myself if I am able to bring meaningful value into the state of the debate through my input. From there, I would be happy if the work behind publishing this blog and at LinkedIn can showcase my capacities to find an opportunity to work as a team member in any project, or to find funding to extend the line of research presented here within a team having access to resources and the participation of more profiles.

    This work is not part of scientific journals because without being a member of an institution it is very difficult to publish in scientific journals (status and economically). At the same time, since through my career I have performed more lab development than scientific publications, my CV does not have enough publications in scientific journals, failing in one requisite which is part of most selection processes to become a member of an institution.

    If you are a member of the scientific community and you put the credibility of a publication in the scientific value attributed by a reviewer, you just need to think as one in order to find the value in my publications and give it credit when you use it influencing yours.

    Building credibility over my work is the strongest option which might overcome the lack of peer review publications in my CV.

    I have seen some activity in the social buttons coming from LinkedIn but I don´t have any reference about the source of it or the group/s from which is coming from.
    If you see any discussion being generated where I don´t participate is basically due to the fact that I am not aware of it. I am always willing to receive feedback an respond to it, so I would appreciate that if you see any interaction generated from my assessments you send me a message pointing me out the source so I can join in, you can leave a comment either here, at linkedIn or by email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

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