Follow-up on previous research 5th May 17. Mixing Temperatures keep shaping A Roller coaster of Temperatures over South Europe. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)


Follow-up on previous research 5th May 17. Mixing Temperatures keep shaping A Roller coaster of Temperatures over South Europe. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)

As part of the follow-up which I apply in my research I use real-time developments to validate previous assessments through time. Through the week starting on the 24th April 2017, we have seen masses of air coming from the Arctic into low latitudes over the European continent. (see following image from 27 April 2017 Airmass.)

Airmass is an RGB composite based upon data from infrared and water vapour channels from Meteosat Second Generation. It is designed and tuned to monitor the evolution of cyclones, in particular rapid cyclogenesis, jet streaks and PV (potential vorticity) anomalies. Due to the incorporation of the water vapour and ozone channels, its usage at high satellite viewing angles is limited. The Airmass RGB is composed from data from a combination of the SEVIRI WV6.2, WV7.3, IR9.7 and IR10.8 channels

The week has passed by. The foreseen impact from the intrusion of warm air into Arctic circulation and cold Arctic into Low latitudes has left its imprint over the Iberian peninsula with devastating consequences.

(Spain-South) http://www.freshplaza.com/article/174600/Spain-Frosts-affect-4,000-hectares-of-grapes,-almonds-and-fruit-in-Valencia

(Spain-North Atlantic) http://elprogreso.galiciae.com/noticia/697548/medio-rural-evalua-los-danos-de-las-heladas-para-tomar-las-medidas-pertinentes

(UK & France) https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/02/english-vineyards-frost-champagne-bordeaux-burgundy

Here I want to share an assessment from last February 2016 from my research in order to expose it for open judgement and review considering the similarities and implications assessing climatic drifts. Feedback is welcome as always.

Forecasts For Ecosystems (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) “Posted on Feb 5th, 2016.

Also

March 7, 2015 Drops of Weather. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
May 14, 2015 A roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
February 12, 2016 Forecasting Past Events. Snow Coming to Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
April 6, 2016 Atmospheric Dynamics, GHG’s, Thermal Conductivity and Polar Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
May 13, 2016 Another roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 13, 2015
July 19, 2016 Atmospheric Dynamics. Foreseeable, At The Moment. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)
September 14, 2016 Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)
October 27, 2016 Autumn and the NH Polar Jet Stream (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)
December 17, 2016 Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)
March 3, 2017 Thermodynamic Ecosystems by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD
March 23, 2017 Review in Progress. March 2017. From ENSO to Scientific Thinking by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.
May 7, 2015 Domesticating Nature. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)

Q&A

The situation of performing research on the topic of environmental behaviour and climatic instability is proving to be a challenge beyond scientific limitations. Many postures can be right at some extent but it seems that each opinion sharing some bright of truth generates an effect of taking sides against others. An apple can be green, red, … can be big, small, … round, elongated, … sweet, sour, … Based on my previous research in aerobiology and the 4 years of research shared in my blog, my assessment over the current situation is defined in a simple principle: climatic drifts are due to variations in pre-established energy flows overwhelming the system´s resilience but within the margins to recover previous equilibrium from extreme oscillations. Variations in climatic regimes have happen in the past due to different reasons, thus, demonstrating that climatic drifts can be triggered by different type of forcing and sources, internal like changes in biological performance (from Co2 to O2) and external like radiation due to planetary tilt. So, knowing that our planetary system is sensible to variations over the energy flows triggering climatic drifts there is no question that there are more than one form to trigger those.

Studies looking at previous palaeoclimatic regimes are only able to register the presence or absence of limited number of variables. The measurements are also limited in quality and quantity due to the nature of the conservation of the samples examined. Yet, the variations in conc of O18, or CO2 contained at ice cores, the biological activity recorded from fossils, pollen, tree rings, … just reflect how dynamic our environment is and how strong was the resilience of our global system to recover from the variability part of evolution. Ultimately, our global system has proved to be strong enough to be resilient against changes in previous-past conditions based on achieving a state of thermodynamic equilibrium since biological systems allowed the conc of Oxigen to reach concentrations suitable for water vapour to spread inland. Thought strong, our global system is also sensible and reactive to changes and pressures. Previous changes in climatic variables have shown changes following gradients in latitude due to variations in planetary configuration (Tilt, precession, …). My research points to a climatic drift braking gradients in temperature and atmospheric circulation due to an increase in kinetic forcing.

In order to obtain the increase in kinetic forcing requiered to displace Arctic masses of air from its position the atmosphre has to increase its capacity to gain and retain the extra kinetic energy entering the system. Such process would be well explained by the combination of an increase in GHGs. Between the GHGs relevant in the equation we have those with a low time permanence as gas /water vapour) and those with a high time permanency lapse (CO2). The increase in CO2 would allow the atmosphere to increase kinetic retention increasing the capacity of the atmosphere to capture water vapour and even extend its time permanency, in combination with aerosols acting as drop nuclei. But also, the limitation in the functional role of the biotic systems and their synergies across the globe would reduce the conc of O2 and reduce their capacity to absorb the increase of CO2 in order to retain equilibrium in the energy flows using the atmospheric path. But also, variations in albedo due to land use and cover, and the changes in soil weathering due to anthropogenic alterations. Human activity is changing the energy flows followed for the energy entering and leaving the system (atms, land and Sea composition and structure / solar radiation).

As part of my own research I have also looked at the mind set behind the debate and the postures adopted. I have said in previous publications in my assessments that focusing on CO2, thought it is involved in the current dynamics, is only part of the answer, but far from being “the answer”. That is like treating increases in temp related with processes of fever as the solution to cure an illness. In today’s time, as I have seen at one presentation at the EGU conferences (Make Facts Great Again: how can scientists stand up for science? http://egu2017.eu/webstreaming.html) everything has an economic component. Our world relies so much on the machinery of economy that absolutely everything has a component looking into the economic side. That takes scientific publication and research as well as politics and industrial growth. At the end of the day, everything which has been touched by money becomes suspicious. And also helps to create agendas and sides. At the end of the day, nobody wants to show the truth because is economically unviable. Any space organism like NASA have looked at the impact of variations in atmospheric conc’s and their impact over human and biological processes as part of their space program, what we know about it?

At some point in time, technology begun its path with the function of helping to answer relevant questions. Then technology increased its relevance in order to implement the conclusions adopted from answering those questions. That happened in periods of peace and later the process speeded up in periods of war. Lets look at the industrialization of the human society and the implementation of technology in social routines. The aim for the technology created and the industrial infrastructure created around it has the only objective of self preservation. Meanwhile developed countries rely on economic consumption, underdeveloped countries on strengthening their economies. Everybody needs production and resources. Western countries sell technology for eastern cheap production and labour. Meanwhile, everybody waste resources. We waste more than we consume, energy efficiency is not profitable, nothing is built to last any more and food is thrown away just to control the prices in the markets. If the truth of things interferes with the preservation of some machinery it generates discomfort. Like publishing science without producing revenues to publishers … Technology is not the problem, it is the aim with which it is developed.

I want to leave here one link to a previous assessment from my line of research which I believe it can represent my previous comments in this thread:

Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Posted on December 17, 2016 https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/2016/12/17/orbital-seasonality-vs-kinetic-seasonality-a-change-triggered-from-changing-the-order-of-the-factors-by-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd/

Temperature

Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) Posted on September 14, 2016 https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/2016/09/14/between-global-cooling-and-global-warming-there-is-global-mixing-by-diego-fdez-sevilla-ph-d/

Atmospheric conditions temp anomalies 5th May 2017.

CO2

(update 8 May2017)

My take on CO2 and temperature dynamics, CO2 is not a source of energy like it is radiation. CO2 is a carrier like water vapour, another GHG. The particular thermal properties of those gases, absorbing heat, not producing heat, is what makes them different from others. Two practical examples: cooking food and keeping cold beverages from warming inside a vacuum flask. When cooking, also cooking with solar panels, the food being cooked require a greenhouse gas transmitting the heat into the food. Normally that is water, which can be added water or water within the food. In a vacuum flask, a cold beverage is kept cold (a warm beverage kept from cooling) by isolating it from being in contact with any molecular matter transferring heat between exterior and the interior of the container. Different molecular components that could fill up the vacuum would have different thermal properties, meaning, the transference of heat having CO2 filling in the vacuum would be higher than having lets say just O2. Water is used in cooking cause it has better thermal properties than CO2 and it is easy to find and handle as well as it is possible to transport in liquid form even is you want to use it as a gas (cooking).

The biochemical use of CO2 by plants is variable due to environmental pressures, but, CO2 on its own it is not enough to feed a whole metabolic cycle. We have to remember that biochemical processes are precise mixtures of molecules with established proportions. Biological processes require sources of Carbon (like CO2) and H2O but also Nitrogen, Potassium, calcium or magnesium as an example.

When I hear the argument of CO2 as boost of growth I would like to ask anyone to look for information about how much does it cost to run a Greenhouse production. Ask whoever you trust about what else apart form a high conc of CO2 are those greenhouse producers paying for to add into their production.

In a final note I want to be clear on my side about CO2.

Among our problems is that any truth can be handle by some as a “Half” truth in order to make profits in any way. CO2 boost plant growth same as fire. So using fire to boost production can be claimed as a good thing. Yet, the big question comes with sustainability: How many resources are used and how many are restored for each cycle? Fires introduce a boost of Nitrogen in the soils, but for a short period of time. The combustion of fossil fuels has become a problem due to its lack of efficiency in the balance of sustainability. The technology applied in combustion brings so low efficiency that, in the car industry, only about 14%–30% of the energy from the fuel you put in a conventional vehicle is used to move it down the road (from EPA). And that figure can be added to energy losses/resources in any type of production. If only combustion of fossil fuels would have increased its energy efficiency to reach 50%, if emissions would have been recovered/recycled by any % in the equation, and resources restored that would reduce all type its impact hugely. It is the technology applied what it has become unsustainable in the equation: resources used+energy wasted/time. (end update 8 May2017)

Previous research

Here I leave references to some of the publications addressing the developments from last week over the Atlantic and Europe so you can compare the validity of my assessments?

December 23, 2015 New insides on old concepts (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
March 7, 2015 Drops of Weather. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
May 14, 2015 A roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
May 20, 2015 News from an Ecosystem (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
June 18, 2015 Extreme climatic events, implications for projections of species distributions and ecosystem structure (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Drift. Are we there yet? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) July 2, 2015
September 8, 2015 A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla).
October 7, 2015 Arctic Intake of Water Vapour (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
October 15, 2015 Follow up on previous assessments addressing shifts on Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
November 10, 2015 Starts Raining Drops of Winter at Mid-Latitudes. The new Autumn? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
November 19, 2015 Following the Behaviour of the Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
March 3, 2016 Seasonality Spring 2016. Continuous follow-up on my previous research assessing atmospheric dynamics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
March 10, 2016 Tangled in Words. Atmospheric Dynamics, Stefan Boltzmann Calculations and Energy Balance (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
May 13, 2016 Another roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 13, 2015
May 26, 2016 Atmospheric Circulation and the Mixing Zone. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
July 19, 2016 Atmospheric Dynamics. Foreseeable, At The Moment. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)
July 28, 2016 Climbing the Hill of Acknowledgement. Peer reviewed articles supporting previous assessments and research published in this blog. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)
March 23, 2017 Review in Progress. March 2017. From ENSO to Scientific Thinking by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.

See timeline page to consult the index with all previous assessments published by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.

About myself:

After finnishing my Masters in Environmental Science in 2001, I have performed research at PhD level and worked inside and outside academia at institutions linked with environmental research and management. In 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new job’s position.

In such competitive scenario, instead of just moving my cv between desks waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I used it as an advantageous standing point to start and develop independent research in a blog in which I could open my own line of research completely free of external pressures or interferences.

Through the whole project I have increasingly being focused on publishing pieces of original research applying my own perspective aiming to address relevant environmental questions.

The level of uncertainty which I have accomplished in my assessments has reached enough accuracy to replicate real time developments to the point of compete with models sustained by corporate and administrative budgets.

At this point Feb 2017, it has reached an stage in which its framework has been defined and it has been applied in follow-ups (in the timeline section at the bottom use ctrl+F: “follow-up”) delivering the subsequent conclusions. Therefore, the work which I present in my blog has become a chapter in my career, and I should focus now my attention on my new steps towards professional and personal growth.

The economic support sustaining the three years of research presented in this blog has been private based on my own capacity to generate it. Once the main conclusions of the project have demonstrated their value, it is time for my career to find new ways of growth and/or external sources of financial support.

Therefore, at this time Feb 2017, the generation of assessments over present developments discontinues its weekly bases in the absence of external financial support.

Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD In transition

I am looking for new opportunities and new challenges, to join a team. At the same time that I look for job openings to incorporate my resume, I would encourage any one finding interesting any of the skills which I apply throughout my research, as well as communicator, to evaluate my profile as a candidate for your projects. email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

You can look at the whole project (more than 190 posts between Oct 2013 to Feb 2017) published at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com and also you will find some of those publications in my profile at ResearchGate and at the Citations page.

I am living in Spain free to relocate geographically worldwide.

About this Project:

My definition of Climate Drift is: the deviation from equilibrium of the conditions allowing the perpetuity of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in a micro and macro ecosystem. This situation can be due to changes in any component of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes can be either a change in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality or rates in the flows of energy pre-established OR/AND the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components/forces and energy sinks or sources in any part of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance.

This project published in a blog format, offers pieces of original research in environmental science, and a space for discussion, based on considering as a major factor limiting our understandings the lack of attention given to the gaps of knowledge existent. The concepts, measurements and parameters applied to address environmental synergistic interactions are too narrow and isolated from each other to understand their full meaning. Such circumstance induce to reach dogmatic patterns of thought to make the quickest conclusions in the absence of a better and clear idea describing what is happening.

In this Project I aim to address those limitations using observational analyses offering assessments over real time events considering those as proxies of significant value to make interpretations over global synergistic relationships.

Feedback is always welcome here and at my email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

Since 2002 I have performed research over the Atmospheric Dynamics interacting with the biota in the field of Aerobiology. In Oct 2013 I focused my attention over climatic dynamics and in Oct 2014 I published what I believe to be a valid theory explaining current developments in atmospheric dynamics. I shared my thoughts at my blog and several groups in LinkedIn (like the AGU, NASA and NOA groups) where the immense response offered has been silence.

In Feb 2015 I published a revision and since then a constant follow-up throughout more than 200 assessments. Still today, April 2017, the majority of the response is silence despite the amount of visits identified by all the SEO tools and the interactions and shares accounted. See the related stats at the Timeline page.

So I thank your open feedback and share.

Nowadays, there are many divisions between disciplines due to the isolated nature of their specific language and methodologies. I might not use the right vocabulary for all the fields which I discuss, or the right data or the right reasoning. But when nobody is able to offer a consensus over what it is going on, I wonder, what is right this days?.

Licencia de Creative Commons
Esta obra está bajo una licencia de Creative Commons Reconocimiento-NoComercial 4.0 Internacional.

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

 

 

 

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About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Citing This Site "Title", published online "Month"+"Year", retrieved on "Month""Day", "Year" from http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! DOIs can be generated on demand by request at email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com for those publications missing at the ResearchGate profile vinculated with this project. **Author´s profile: Born in 1974. Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my work previous to 2013 as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After 12 years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, in 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my own line of research. In the current competitive scenario, in order to demonstrate my capacities instead of just moving my cv waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I decided to invest my energy and time in opening my own line of research sharing it in this blog. In March 2017 the budget reserved for this project has ended and its weekly basis time frame discontinued until new forms of economic and/or institutional support are incorporated into the project. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this platform and at LinkedIn has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my achievements and that the Intellectual Property Rights generated with the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in similar lines of research. **Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome as well as any approach exploring professional opportunities to be part of.** In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2017, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2017. Filling in or Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/
This entry was posted in Aerobiology, Aerosols, Biological productivity, Cultural Cognition, Energy Balance, Environmental Resilience, Extreme climatic events, Filling in, Finding out, GMO's, Influence of Continentality, Open discussions, Opinion, Polar vortex and Jet Stream, Solar activity, Water vapour and tagged , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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