Observed Atmospheric Dynamics. A follow-up assessment over the theory proposed on Energetic gradients by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.


Observational Events on Atmospheric Dynamics. A Follow-up Assessment Over The Theory Proposed on Energetic Gradients by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Since Oct 2014 I have been sharing publicly hypothetical scenarios based on theoretical approaches with the aim of exposing the validity of those ideas to public scrutiny. But ultimately, I have to rely on atmospheric events actually happening to explore the validity of my assessments.

The first assessment included in the theory purposed in this line of research was the implications from seeing an increase on water vapour reaching higher latitudes due to the enhanced capability of the atmosphere to contain water vapour due to positive feedbacks with GHGs.

The scenario described in my approach analysing atmospheric dynamics pointed to high probabilities of seeing out of season Atlantic intrusions of warm and wet masses of air into Arctic latitudes, which was discussed also in publications like, but not only, the following:

In the the last two entrances in this blog I have tried to highlight the relationship between  the recent weather events seen in the NH over America and Europe and their links with the theoretical approach proposed in my line of research. In both cases, the interaction between the two basins, the Pacific and Atlantic, have resulted in similar weather events only differing in frequency and intensity. This might be explained probably thanks to the contribution of the positive phase of the ENSO, which I defend that it does not drive atmospheric circulation but plays its role (discussed latter):

The major component in my research has focused on highlighting the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream as the major driver defining atmospheric dynamics as consequence of its relationship with the composition of the Atmosphere. Among some publications addressing this topic you can see the following:

I have also assessed the implications deriving from the erratic behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream over weather events and climatic conditions driving alterations in the transition between seasons:

Furthermore, I have discussed the discrepancies from this line of research with those applied by main stream research discussing the role played by the ENSO and Arctic Amplification:

I have also discussed the Arctic-Antarctic duality in publications like, but not only:

Similarly I have also addressed the influence of other major forces in our global environment:

Observational events on atmospheric dynamics.

The first assessment included in the theory purposed in this line of research was the increasing probability of seeing water vapour reaching higher Latitudes and the patterns followed in both basins, Atlantic and Pacific.

Once I had pointed out patterns in atmospheric circulation based on two years of observation starting in 2013, on the 31st December 2015 I emphasized in LinkedIn the high probability of facing in the winter 2016 a strong Pacific participation in a similar event as it was Juno last year 2015 over the east of EEUU (ref here).

The publication addressing the storms Juno 2015 and Jonas 2016 is at the following link:

The winter 2015-16 has delivered events which support these two assessments:

  • The first happen the 28th of Dec 2015

GFS-025deg_ARC-LEA_PWTR_2015-12-28_0000UTC_init GFS-025deg_ARC-LEA_T2_anom_2015-12-28_0000UTC_init

  • The “Juno like” development called Jonas happened 4 weeks after, on the 22nd-23rd Jan 2016.

CHART NCEP 20Jan2016 MSLP by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

3D Representation NH 06 Feb 2015 Wind speed and direction by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

3D Juno 27 Jan Pressure Diego Fdez-Sevilla

Another major feature in the introduction of this line of research has been the application of thermodynamic laws as part of my interpretation over the recent events.

The presence of the storm Alex hovering over the Atlantic for over a week in the middle of January, the tropical storm Pali reaching the equator, rain reaching Arctic latitudes and floods instead of snow in UK and Sweden in December, suggest that the approach followed in this theory is able to unify all events in a single principle:

The atmosphere has reached a tipping point in absorbing energy at mid latitudes and the constant contact of warm masses of air with those from polar latitudes has weared off the strength of the Polar Jet Stream.

Such circumstance has allowed the atmosphere to spread the energy carried by water vapour from mid latitudes into northern latitudes, being able of holding more energy than before since it is not dissipated into their surroundings when moving across latitudes. This scenario has generated the possibility of observing:

  • lows moving large distances like those we see through this winter 2016 crossing from West Pacific to Eastern EEUU and the Atlantic. (IR Figure zone A)

Multi IR Global Dec 2015 Diego Fdez-Sevilla

  • atmospheric water vapour rivers moving vast amounts of water vapour crossing Oceans, and even from Eastern Pacific to Western Europe.

Average Water Vapour 27 Jan 2016 Diego Fdez-Sevilla

  • And also, Highs and Lows being able of maintaining their position against the Polar Jet Stream, inducing major disruptions on the path of the Polar Jet Stream inducing masses of air crossing from both sides, from Polar to Sub-Tropical latitudes and the opposite. Such scenario has become more frequent since 2013. As well as warm masses of air have reached the Arctic in December 2015, the polar influence has reached record low latitudes over Asia like at Taiwan the 25th January 2016 (more at cnnnews here). From my take, the trigger was from the bottom up due to Strat Sudden Warming generating a sucking effect, like in a vacuum flask (kitasato filtration). Warm air moving up displaced cold air moving down. If we look at two points for the same day 20th Jan 2016 and latitude, located just at the opposite side in the North Hemisphere, it is possible to see the temperature displacement over 850hPa and 10 hPa:

Asia (50N 110E) 10hPa -31.4C 850 hPa -30.7 Difference: 0.7 C

North America (50N 70W) 10hPa -64.9 850 hPa -18.2C Difference: 46.7C.

20-jan-2016-stratigraphic-imbalance-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

 

temp10hPa anomaly NOAA Diego Fdez-Sevilla

30-day loop of analyzed 10-hPa temperatures and anomalies. Each frame is an eleven-day mean, centered on the date indicated in the title, of 10-hPa temperature and anomalies from the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation System (CDAS). Contour interval for temperatures is 4C, anomalies are indicated by shading. Anomalies are departures from the 1981-2010 daily base period means.

Altogether, the contrasts in temperature hold by the masses of air in circulation generates strong contrasts between Longitudes instead of between latitudes as well as strong variations in short periods of time for the same location.

Furthermore, once a weather system moves looking for suitable conditions to dissipate its energy, either it collapses and releases its vast amount of energy as a powerful discharge (kinetic, latent and potential energy) or move away into latitudes less energised, which are found in higher latitudes.

The conclusions drawn from this research present a general situation for our global circulation in the NH defined by:

  • the location for the generation of weather systems and events (Lows, Highs and Heat Waves)
  • their movements across latitudes
  • and the predominant  water vapour corridors observed.

Altogether the research here presented points to a new scenario in atmospheric dynamics in which the Arctic circulation, previously isolated from Subtropical influence by the Polar Jet Stream, has become open to be involved in the atmospheric dynamics for the Pacific and Atlantic basins. This new interconnection will affect the atmospheric dynamics around the whole North Hemisphere. But also, by being our atmosphere a close system, subsidiary, such alteration would also affect dynamics at the Equator and due to symmetric compensation between Hemispheres, also into the South Hemisphere. As it has been pointed out previously, the presence of the storm Alex hovering over the Atlantic for over a week in the middle of January (IR Figure zone C), the tropical storm Pali reaching the equator (IR Figure zone B), rain reaching Arctic latitudes and floods instead of snow in UK and Sweden in December, suggest that the approach followed in this theory is able to unify all those events in this line of research.

Ultimately, even the gravitational forces exerting their influence over the volumes of water vapour incorporated in the atmosphere, would play a role with unknown consequences.

As environmental Biologist myself, I understand our climate as the consequence from the relationship existent between biotic and none biotic components through the gaseous medium we call the atmosphere. Such approach looks into, not only the inert components of the whole system, but also, the canvas to be fulfilled with knowledge over the mechanisms linking environmental performance and atmospheric composition through the synergistic relationship existing between biotic and none biotic components.

For over two years I have studied the mechanisms behind atmospheric dynamics involved in composing the complex system of weather patterns which sustain our climate. I have even developed a theoretical approach to understand new developments, and I believe that I have offered grounded evidence to support that the biological performance of our ecosystems are directly involved in two ways: by affecting the composition of the atmosphere and the thermodynamic behaviour of it (particulate matter and gaseous compounds) as well as by interacting in the energy budget of the planet either directly through biochemical processes or indirectly through physical processes related with albedo and soil weathering. One example of such interaction can be observed throughout the whole year in the atmospheric circulation above the Amazons. (more here)

Considering those concepts altogether, biological systems would play the role of a rudder for a ship in the middle of the sea. Is not the strength of a single force what dominates the global system but the management of those forces what it makes the difference. And all of that it is happening in the atmosphere and on the ground through land cover and use (more here).

Climate experts from NOAA and NASA announced new data on 2015 global temperatures during a media teleconference on Wednesday, Jan. 20, 11:00 a.m. ET. The scientists also discussed the year’s most important weather and climate events in context of long-term warming trends.

Some comments in the audio are relevant in my line of research. In particular some key points from the AUDIO file which I would like to highlight:

Min 37 “The tracks of hurricanes are moving Polewards”. “Some evidences show increases in heat waves, increases in intensity of precipitation, and decreases in cold outbreaks”.

Some posts related:

Min 47: “El Niño can not explain the dynamics seen in the atmosphere over the last years. Only the composition of the atmosphere can do it.”

Last Comment

This piece of research has many implications and angles to be addressed. I am trying to express a complex puzzle of ideas as an accessible concept to which I hope most thinkers from all fields of study can engage. Even though I have tried to bind together ideas and concepts underneath there is a complexity of knowledge and intuitive thinking which it is difficulty to explain with words so I would invite you to look into the other publications in this blog in order to broaden the different points of view which I apply. Also I want to make anybody aware of my own awareness over the fact that my own gaps of knowledge play a role over my assessments so any new incorporation of inside knowledge may play either to enhance the value of my research or to reassess any of its links and feedback is always welcome. This is a piece of independent research carried out with no financial support or any other, so I publicly accept that the political agenda behind it lies on selfish interest of having a contribution into making a change from the value of my work.

If that allows me to gain any type of funding to further its applicability into addressing new developments that would be a plus.

I want to leave here one last thought to play with, applying a visualization of what I consider it is a conceptual interpretation over what it is the major feature driving the atmospheric dynamics in our global system, (thermal) conductivity. Take the emission source, the centre, as the equator and the glass as the Arctic, and look again into the image above showing Arctic circulation the 28th Dec 2015 .

Source link here

(This publication might be updated in order to improve its content. However, record from all states of it are kept saved in independent files as part of my Intellectual property Portfolio. License Creative Commons. Registry at WordPress.)

Brain storm Climate by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

_________________________________

The aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. So any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time of at least a month from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found discussing the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.

In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

The performance of my work as independent researcher, with no institutional and economic support, is limited by my lack of access to resources and economic stability. So far what I have published in this blog is what I have been able to offer with those limitations.

If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will overcome the limitations of my cv in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.

PerspectiveSince October 2013 I have been studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.

Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License,  WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.

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About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Citing This Site "Title", published online "Month"+"Year", retrieved on "Month""Day", "Year" from http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my previous work as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After couple of years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, I find myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my research. In the present competitive scenario, instead of just moving my cv and wait for my next opportunity to arrive, I have decided to invest also my energy and time in opening my own line of research showing what I am capable of. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this blog has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my work and the intellectual rights represented by the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in this line of research. Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome. In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2017, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2016. Filling in or Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/
This entry was posted in Aerosols, Biological productivity, Energy Balance, Environmental Resilience, Extreme climatic events, Filling in, Finding out, Influence of Continentality, Inland Water Bodies and Water Cycle, Open discussions, Opinion, Polar vortex and Jet Stream, Solar activity, Water vapour and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

62 Responses to Observed Atmospheric Dynamics. A follow-up assessment over the theory proposed on Energetic gradients by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

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