Arctic Dynamics as part of a Global Pattern in Atmospheric Circulation. Research Follow-up October 2018 (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)


Arctic Dynamics as part of a Global Pattern in Atmospheric Circulation. Research Follow-up October 2018 (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)

Registered in pdf at Researchgate October 2018 DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.26042.03522

  • Intro Framework and visual aids with animations
  • Discrepancies between conclusions reached in the present line of research and those from Mainstream
  • Current conditions Temp anom 2m, SST, Ice cover and thickness NH, ENSO, SOI and Polar Vortex  Configuration
  • Study Timeline and Overall Conclusions
  • Conditions 17 Oct 2018
  • Latest analysis related
  • Some related analyses
  • Arctic
  • Global Circulation Follow-Up
  • Review comparing the present developments with earlier analyses and conclusions shared in the line of research presented in this blog.
  • “Filling in and Finding out gaps of knowledge”
  • Conclusions on: Weather, Climate, Energy, Environment and Man
  • Imagery, Methodology and Licensing

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17 October 2018. Temp Anom 2m, 500hPa Geopot. Height and SST Anom

(Left) Temp 2m Anom. The temperature anomaly is made in reference to a 1979-2000 climatology derived from the reanalysis of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSR/CFSV2) model. This climate baseline is used instead of the 1981-2010 climate normal because it spans a period prior to significant warming of the Arctic beyond historically-observed values. For context, see this timeseries plot showing how various climate baselines compare against the NASA GISS 1880-2014 global land-ocean temperature index.
(Center) 500hPa Geopot. Height
(Right) SST anomaly map generated from NOAA Optimum Interpolation SST version 2 (OISST V2). OISST is a 0.25°x0.25° blendend dataset derived from satellite, ship, and buoy measurements. The SST anomaly is based on a 1971-2000 NOAA climatology

By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. CV english and español. Resume. Interdisciplinary Skills applied in the line of research presented.- Index for all analyses published. – Shares and Feedback at LinkedIn


Intro, Framework and Animations


The Arctic is suffering a continuous process of warming throughout 2018.

temperature anomaly in relation to average values during the period 2004-2013, in addition to current wind conditions. They are based on daily registrations during the past 50 days. All data is shown as an average over 5 days.

The implications over the weather conditions around the NH are enough to affect the transitions between seasons with a repetitions of the patterns seen in atmospheric circulation through Spring and Autumn (see following images and an extended discussion at: Seasonal Transitions under a New Climatic Scenario. by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18385.22881 June 29, 2018):

18 Oct 2018

10 April 2018

This atmospheric pattern of instability, the weather events associated and the Warm Anomalies at high Latitudes, are less related with Solar radiation as the years pass forward (more discussion at Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20129.81760 December 17, 2016)

Estimated daily dosage of erythemally weighted UV radiation. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

The line of research presented by Diego Fdez-Sevilla (PhD) in this blog and researchgate since 2013 and throughout more than 200 analyses, has reached conclusions which differ from mainstream theories addressing the “drivers” and “implications” from such warming at high latitudes.

The current line of research studies and discusses current developments throughout publications from 2013 to date.

In the analyses presented I offer points of view unifying in a single argument the behaviour of drivers such as ENSO, Arctic Amplification and Polar Vortex configuration. That is:

An increase in the atmospheric energetic pool in the form of free state is fuelling a mixing dynamic (Convective motion) responsible for creating fluctuations in temperature patterns, and yet, denoting a constant increase in kinetic displayments.

The increasing warming over mid-latitudes is using water vapour as the carrier of energy incorporating it over the whole atmosphere and into Arctic latitudes. Such mechanism will increase the energy pool at the Arctic, what in other words can be seen as an increase in temperature and processes of SSW affecting the POLAR Vortex configuration. Furthermore, the spread of energy contained by water vapour also affects the resilience shown by Lows and Highs to dissipate their energy at lower latitudes and affects developments at the ITCZ zone and equatorial wind shear at the Eq. Pacific. A pattern of change in the atmosphere dynamics beyond considering global warming or cooling. That is, global mixing.

Throughout the assessments presented in the current line of research I have defended that the increase in the energy pool at mid-latitudes would ultimately create an scenario with an overcharged atmosphere. That would reduce the contrasts with which to create and maintain stability in the structure required to condense energy in singular events, like hurricanes. Giving more relevance to the single contrast between Ocean/continental masses. However, the opening of the Arctic circulation through a weak Jet Stream would reduce the pressure in the containment absorbing the condensation of energy at mid-latitudes, expanding into a new volume.

Accordingly, hadley circulation gets affected (see also) generating new patterns of turbulence at the ITCZ as well as it gets influenced Arctic mixing zones with lower latitudes.

In this scenario TCs are generated under an increase in the mixing ratio of an unstable atmospheric circulation dominated by kinetic energy transferred by water vapour thanks to GHGs, and immersed in an overcharged atmosphere with no place where to diffuse its energy, becoming resilient as long as they stay over the ocean. So they endure like a piece of an ice rock in cold water.

About Sea Surface Temperatures, my assessments take SST as subsequent conditions driven by wind shear. So the interaction between masses of air in circulation allows or inhibits SST developments. Once the scenario is built on SST this becomes a “battle field” conditioning the subsequent interaction between the following masses of air and the characteristics of the “grounds” where the game will be played (sort of speak). Like the effect of the ice conditions in an ice hockey match.

El Niño is an event which happens in a very small portion of the Earth, it is related to the temperature of a very thin layer of the Ocean in depth, a small percentage of the area occupied by the whole Oceanic masses, and even smaller when it is integrated in the multidimensional space combining Ocean and atmosphere. It is kind of intriguing to think why it has been so easy to conclude that such small portion of the entire system is driving it as a whole. It is like considering that the flowering of plants drives the seasons. Similarly it could be said about using SST at the Arctic to justify altogether; the lack of ice, warmer temperatures at tropospheric level and even at stratospheric level. There is not enough energy in the SST of such small area as it is the Arctic to justify all those convective dynamics.

Throughout the line of research presented several animations have addressed the arguments offered supporting with a visual aid the patterns addressed.

In images the research here presented would look like:

Discrepancies Between Conclusions Reached in the Present Line of Research and Those From Mainstream.


Since 2002 I have performed research over the Atmospheric Dynamics interacting with the biota in the field of Aerobiology (PhD studying atmospheric conditions affecting the efficiency of pollen sampling and the aerodynamic behaviour of pollen. Conclusions here. Article on anthropogenic forcing over plants performance here).

In Oct 2013 I focused my attention over climatic dynamics.

In  AUGUST 2014, Cohen et al, published a review over the state of knowledge on Climatic Assessments: “Review Article: Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather.” Nature Geoscience volume 7, pages 627–637 (2014) (DOI:10.1038/NGEO2234).

“The theory that Arctic amplification is resulting in a slower zonal jet, increased meridional flow, amplified waves and more persistent extreme weather has received a lot of attention from the media, policymakers and climate scientists. In part due to the high profile, this hypothesis has been scrutinized in the scientific literature more extensively than other hypotheses linking Arctic climate change to mid-latitude weather. However, it is worth noting that other studies on related topics, especially other studies on related topics, especially other observational studies, share some of the same shortcomings: lack of statistical significance, causality unclear, incomplete mechanistic understanding, and so on”.

Based on my analyses, in Oct 2014 I published what I believe to be a valid theory explaining current developments in atmospheric dynamics.

The assessments presented in this line of research are not weather reports but interpretations over emerging dynamics, offering arguments and discussion addressing the gaps of knowledge found in academia in order to identify mechanisms giving sense to data.

In the analyses presented I offer points of view unifying in a single argument the behaviour of drivers such as ENSO, Arctic Amplification and Polar Vortex configuration.

That is, an increase in the atmospheric energetic pool in the form of free state is fuelling a mixing dynamic (Convective motion) responsible for creating fluctuations in temperature patterns, and yet, denoting a constant increase in kinetic displayments. Water vapour acts as the carrier of energy incorporating it over the whole atmosphere and into Arctic latitudes

  • increasing the energy pool at the Arctic
  • increasing Arctic temperature and processes of SSW affecting the POLAR Vortex configuration. 
  • affecting the resilience shown by Lows and Highs to dissipate their energy at lower latitudes and
  • affecting developments at the ITCZ zone and equatorial wind shear at the Eq. Pacific.

A pattern of change in global mixing.


Current conditions Temp anom 2m, SST, Ice cover and thickness NH, ENSO, SOI and Polar Vortex  Configuration


(In the following sections I want to point out some specific analyses shared previously addressing these drivers. The aim for this is to offer the opportunity to read those and contrast their validity against current developments and against the theories based on the mentioned drivers. Afterwards, there are extracts from previous publications extending the discussion as part of the validation of previous analyses against current developments.)

In scientific research, arguments increase their value the less they need to be modified throughout time in order to fit with the developments unfold after their proposal. For this reason, in the present line of research I have applied a constant follow-up re-sharing analyses published in previous years in order to assess the validity of the conclusions raised based on those in contrast with the developments seen afterwards:

  • Some theories like “Arctic Amplification” postulates that such process is resultant of local conditions pointing to anomalous Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) as the driver behind this warming. This theory also postulates that such anomalous warming in the Arctic latitudes generates an impact over Mid latitudinal Circulation.

Some example of the analyses offered in contrast with this theory can be found following the links to the following publications:

October 21, 2014 New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4859.3440
November 17, 2016 Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.24688.35848
December 17, 2016 Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20129.81760
February 28, 2018 Arctic Warming as a Result of Convective Forcing by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD  Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34551.73125

Conditions of Temp at 2m and Ice Thickness and Ice Cover Oct 2018

  • Other theory looks at the state of the Polar Vortex as the one driving tropospheric circulation. Accordingly to this theory, when the NH Polar Vortex breaks the NH Mid-latitudinal circulation gets affected by cold snaps.

Some example of the analyses offered in contrast with this theory can be found following the links to the following publications:

March 14, 2014 The breakdown of the Polar Vortex. It happened before so, What would follow? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
October 7, 2014 What type of Polar vortex configuration can we expect for this winter? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
November 14, 2014 Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2500.0488
November 22, 2014 The Polar Vortex breaks again in the North Hemisphere 22 Nov 2014. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
November 29, 2014 (Updated 5/Jan/2015) State of the Polar Vortex. Broken? 29/Nov/14 – 5th/Jan/15 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
December 18, 2015 Climate and weather December 2015. Another Polar Vortex another Heat Wave? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.19966.48968
February 4, 2016 (updated 11-18 Feb2016) Polar Vortex, Old News, Same News? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25779.12328
October 25, 2016 Another Heat Wave Another Polar Vortex II … Broken (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.13418.93124

Atmospheric conditions at Stratospheric level 10hPa and 70 hPa- 17 Oct 2018:

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html 70 hPa geopotential(dam’) and temperature(°C) over the northern hemisphere from 30°N – 90°N on October 17 2018 12 UTC. The unit of the geopotential is 10 geopotential standard meter (10 m’ = 1 dam’ = 98.0665 m2 s-2 = 98.0665 J kg-1). Data: ECMWF via DWD.

10 hPa geopotential(dam’) and temperature(°C) over the northern hemisphere from 30°N – 90°N on October 17 2018 12 UTC. The unit of the geopotential is 10 geopotential standard meter (10 m’ = 1 dam’ = 98.0665 m2 s-2 = 98.0665 J kg-1). Data: ECMWF via DWD.

  • Another theory is based on seeing the anomalous warming at the East Pacific Equator Sea Temperatures – ENSO (El Niño), as the driver dominating atmospheric circulation.

Some example of the analyses offered in contrast with this theory can be found following the links to the following publications:

December 11, 2015 Could It Be El Niño The New “Wolf” Coming? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.3238.2801
March 22, 2016 Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)  Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1968.5521
March 23, 2017 Final Review in Progress. March 2017. From ENSO to Scientific Thinking by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.33915.82726
June 23, 2017 “Seasonal Outlook. June 2017 (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25428.91528

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Study Timeline and Overall Conclusions


The current line of research is intended to understand current developments, all as part of a global pattern being developed in real time and further discussed throughout publications from 2013 to date. In the line presented in this blog and researchgate since 2013, I have offered an alternative new theory which addresses the unanswered questions left by the previous theories.

That is, an increase in the atmospheric energetic pool in the form of free state is fuelling a mixing dynamic (Convective motion) responsible for creating fluctuations in temperature patterns, and yet, denoting a constant increase in kinetic displayments.

My theory (ref Oct 21, 2014, and ref Feb 2, 2015) is that the increasing warming over mid-latitudes is using water vapour as the carrier of energy incorporating it over the whole atmosphere and into Arctic latitudes. Such mechanism will increase the energy pool at the Arctic, what in other words can be seen as an increase in temperature, but also affects the resilience shown by Lows and Highs to dissipate their energy at lower latitudes.

All being a process driving the behaviour of the ENSO, Arctic dynamics and the POLAR Vortex configuration.

The main conclusion reached has been to face a pattern of change in the structure of the atmosphere and its dynamics due to an increase in atmospheric mixing, in altitude, and latitude with Arctic circulation. A new approach which goes beyond considering the only options of global warming or cooling. That is, global mixing.

An increase in the amount of energy being in “free” state means that “kinetic processes” (instability) will increasingly dominate thermodynamic processes, inducing a transition in our Seasonal and Climatic regimes from being driven by Orbital Positioning to be driven by more erratic Kinetic processes.

Conditions of SST, IR and 2m Temp Anom 17 Oct 2018

Latest related analysis:

Following the current line of study we are witnessing the evolution of a climatic regime reacting to pressures defining a calendar in a chain reaction following phases.

We are in the fourth phase “heat into motion”, before the next.

Latest analysis related:

Some related analyses

October 21, 2014 New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4859.3440
November 14, 2014 Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2500.0488
February 10, 2015 Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1975.7602/1
October 21, 2015 Discussing Climatic Teleconnections. Follow Up On My Previous Research (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2962.7605
March 22, 2016 Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)  Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1968.5521
November 17, 2016 Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Researchgate:  DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.24688.35848
February 28, 2018 Arctic Warming as a Result of Convective Forcing by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD  Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34551.73125

Arctic

The drainage of the “Arctic cold reservoir” is a process which started with a timid seasonal waving on the Polar Jet Stream. This process has become more extreme by the years, beginning to show as the collapse of a wall under the pressure on a tide gaining strength. Convective forcing from mid latitudes is invading the north pole forcing the displacement of cold masses into foreign territories. What began as a process marked by seasonal pulses, this year 2018 is showing to maintain momentum throughout seasons.

The anomalous warming at the Arctic has been discussed in the line of research presented already in 2015 and the most complete analysis over the situation that I can offer about this publication was an analysis which I published in 2016 (which includes the previous one from 2015). And more recently with a follow-up in 2018. So I want to offer my analyses for any one interested in the discussion existent over the Arctic dynamics and their significance in the global situation. Even though these are not articles in peered reviewed journals, these analyses have not received arguments invalidating their coherence and significance  and are part of the reality surrounding the activity of research beyond academia when PhDs like me keep offering their research without the support from an institution. So it is up to you to judge their value or ask whom you trust about it.

Global Circulation Follow-Up

News reports on weather events are based on describing new developments. Therefore, for every event, new arguments are developed to describe the new that justifies making it to the news.

In scientific research, arguments increase their value the less they need to be modified throughout time in order to fit with the developments unfold after their proposal. For this reason, in the present line of research I have applied a constant follow-up re-sharing analyses published in previous years in order to assess the validity of the conclusions raised based on those in contrast with the developments seen afterwards.

In 2014 the line of research defined by the assessments published in this blog could not be verified by peer review articles due to the absence of them applying similar approach. That was confirmed by direct communication with Prof Jennifer Francis by email (in full here).

Therefore, since the statements presented have not yet been verified by peer-reviewed research, the original and pioneer nature of the line of research presented in this blog can only rely on real time developments through follow-ups in order to evaluate the veracity of the assessments published and the conclusions and interpretation offered.

In that way, I have published analyses over atmospheric dynamics as part of the follow-up required. You can find those in the timeline page using ctrl+F and the word “follow-up”.

This strategy aims to allow for an open and multidisciplinary review over the validity of the assessment presented in this blog by comparison with the recurrent repetition of patterns unfolding in real time.

Also with the publications in this blog I have re-published previous publications at LinkeIn following such strategy in order to reach an audience as broad as possible.

This post links to the results from the line of research that I have presented from my analysis from 2016 in order to contrast its validity with the current situation. Are my conclusions accurate? I also want to invite Paul Newman for feedback based on the involvement of higher levels of the atmopshere in my analysis. Global Mixing in Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.) DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.21255.60320 From my line of research I am convinced on that Arctic perturbations at the Atlantic basin (warm intrusions over the Arctic and cold at mid-latitudes) are responsible for the genesis of Tropical Systems due to alterations over the ITCZ. From there, the behaviour and paths followed by them would also be driven by more Arctic perturbations (combination of warm intrusions at the North Pacific and North Atlantic and cold at lower latitudes) inducing changes in pressure located all around their path, in front and behind their movement. https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6456815061011877888

I would like to incorporate recent developments in the body of work which I try to present in my blog with posts which can be found at the timeline using Ctrl+F and key words.

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This October 2018, I want to keep up this line of review comparing the present developments with earlier analyses and conclusions shared in the line of research presented in this blog.

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From previous publications and assessments (see dates of publication and follow links at the titles to access the publications in full):

March 7, 2015 Drops of Weather. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) (pdf) DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.33796.63360

The possibility of facing a weakening Jet Stream due to a decrease in the Thermal contrast between the Subtropical and Polar atmospheric regions has created scenarios in which the variations in meteorological conditions for a particular location can come without a transition. One week is freezing cold and the next pretty warm. How can that happen?

The large north-south waves in the jet stream (Rossby waves) are occurring more frequently and may be increasing in amplitude. Larger waves can cause cool air to be pushed toward the equator when the waves dip to low latitudes, and warm air to be pushed toward the poles when the waves swing back. For areas on the ground below these waves, that translates into wild and unseasonable temperature extremes, sometimes called “weather whiplash.”

rossby-waves

Masses of air crossing the Jet Stream

Such scenario can be seen when we look at the graphic representations created to simulate the prediction for the Western European meteorological conditions in the period between the 3rd of March and the 14th of March 2015.

Here I have created a video with the sequence of images generated for this period so you can appreciate the forecast describing the behaviour of the phase/limit where both masses of air get in contact and how it looks like a fluid releasing “drops of weather”.

(Western Europe. Meteorological forecast for the period between the 3rd of March and the 14th of March 2015. Subjected to changes due to updating processes.)

March 7, 2015 The implications raising from such type of atmospheric behaviour are yet to be fully understood. To begin with, the possibility of having sudden intrusions of masses of air inducing extreme changes in meteorological variables might affect the life cycle of the biota since the most of it, plants and animals, follows changes on Temp and Humidity suffering behavioural, hormonal and physiological alterations. Also it must be considered the rapid respond to those variables from species with a quick metabolism. Many of which, insects and fungi, might suffer blooming rates of growth coinciding with a vulnerable stage in the development of other species like crops and wild plants. This scenario opens questions which I believe are worth to be included in a debate about “the possibility of seeing its frequency increasing in the near future”. Also discussed in previous posts e.g. (UPGRADED 11 March2015) Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla.)

Plants

Sudden changes in temperature might induce flowering too early or, getting affected by frostbite, depending on whether the intrusion carries warm or cold air.

I leave here one example from a paper which tackles such kind of scenarios for plants looking at the implications that raising uncertainties carry into the system of production for the food industry and agricultural practices. …(see full publication following link at the title).

May 14, 2015 A roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Pdf DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.27634.20165

A new record maximum temperature for Spain was set yesterday 13th May, with many local records also broken, and the heat continues today (14th May) in the southeast (Temp on 14th May: All-Time May Heat Record for Europe Falls For the 2nd Time This Month.By: Jeff Masters. May 14, 2015).

Iberia Temps

The new record of 42.6C was recorded at Lanzarote Airport in the Canary Islands, beating the previous May record for Spain by a relatively large 2.5 degrees. It also beats the Lanzarote station’s own previous highest May temperature by a whopping 6 degrees.

The previous May record in Spain was 40.1C at Cordoba on the mainland, and Cordoba itself recorded a new May station record on Wednesday with 41.2C.

Met Office Global Model mean sea level pressure and temperature

Further records could be broken today in parts of Andalucía, Murcia and Valencia as air continues to feed in from North Africa. However, a cold front is pushing gradually southeastwards across Spain, bringing cooler air across much of the country by the end of the week.

What next?

Well, next we have the forecast for a sudden drop of Temp in just 24 hours and even moving to freezing (0ºC) on Wednesday 20th May.

A roller coaster of temperatures in South Europe_Spain by Diego FdezSevilla

Temperature variations Spain 15 May 2015 by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

Temperature variations Spain 16 May 2015 by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

Starting from Wednesday May 20th polar-maritime air masses will flow towards Spain, with drops in temperature being forecast reaching as low as 0ºC in some parts of the North of Spain (2m Temp Forecast GFS).

avnpanel5

I believe that the Iberian peninsula can be a very relevant indicator for the potential evolution of global changes in atmospheric developments and climatic anomalies, due to its position in Latitude and conglomeration of contrasts in a relatively small space of climatic influences, from Oceanic and maritime in the West and East to continental from North Europe, and Africa in the South. Cold blasts have found their way South in Winter and burning Heat has no opposition moving North now 14th May. And these anomalies are not Solar related by activity or angle of incidence (see also Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality).

Follow up from previous posts:

This type of situations brings back some previous discussions addressed in several analyses in which I have pointed out the relevance of facing changes in the severity for the transition between climatic phases due to atmospheric alterations (see full index at timeline page).

From: New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on

The theory that I have developed follows the work published previously by scientists Judah Cohen, Masato Mori, Colin Summerhayes, Coumou and Ted Shepherd, whom all together supported the theory of that early snowfall over Asia increases albedo leading to heat retention in the atmosphere provoking Arctic ice to melt. Decreased snow cover decreases albedo and enhance heat absorption. Ultimately, the enhanced capacity of the Arctic to absorb heat would lead to “amplify” atmospheric heat absorption already being fuelled with GHGs. Such increase in atmospheric temperature would reduce the thermal contrast required for a strong jet stream and consequently originating disturbance in atmospheric weather patterns associated.

What I propose with my hypothesis is that Arctic Amplification is a consequence and not the trigger. That it is a symptom and not the cause.

What I am trying to highlight in my theory are the possible mechanisms which would explain: changes in albedo which support Arctic Amplification, early snowfalls in central Asia, Arctic ice cover meltdown and oceanic increases in salinity and ultimately, the origin of atmospheric blocking patterns and the pause in T raise unified in single principle: Increasing conc. of CO2 and water vapour induce a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation.

I am looking at the implications of having the Arctic circulation not “Amplifying” but “Absorbing” constant increases in atm CO2 and Water vapour. In my approach, instead of looking at what happens in the Arctic as the origin of a chain reaction, I look at what happens in the Arctic just as a side effect (with its own implications) in a wider process resultant from a reduction between the differential gradients of energy driving the atmospheric global circulation, being water vapour the carrier of the energy being dispersed all over the atmosphere.”

Based on my theory, Greenhouse gases store energy which leads to an increase in global temperature. This increase in T, altogether with synergistic effects from aerosols, allows more water vapor to be contained in the atmosphere, which, consequently, adds more energy into the atmosphere in form of latent heat and kinetic energy. Therefore, this increase in atmospheric energy being carried and distributed all over the hemisphere would infuse power into atmospheric patterns at the same time that it would also reduce the differential energetic gradient between cyclonic events and their surroundings in order to dissipate the energy carried within. Consequently, the energy of those cyclonic events (Low and High pressures) would persist throughout time, altitude and location. Such scenario would decrease the strength of barriers built upon steep differential gradients like the Polar Jet Stream. Furthermore, it would increase the frequency in which masses of warm air from low latitudes would get introduced in polar regions as well as masses of polar air would move across the Jet Stream, across latitudes, moving further South. Following the 2nd Thermodynamics law on entropy, having decreased the differential in gradient of energy between cyclonic events and its surroundings would increase the life span of those events. That would induce an increase in the accumulation of energy in form of latent heat, water vapour and wind strength. Such build-up in power, without dissipating the energy contained within, would give cyclonic events enough strength to interfere with atmospheric barriers like the Polar Jet Stream, breaking it, and also, would allow them to adopt locations that originate “blocking patterns.”

From:

“Even considering that such exchange it has been always there throughout past Winters, if my theory is right, this pattern of unsteady Jet Stream and masses of air crossing through would start earlier in Autumn (seasonal transition to Winter) and resume closer to summer (until all warm masses of air cover high latitudes homogeneously, coalescence).

The transition from Summer to Winter and from Winter to Summer will be a transition between “more frequent exchange of masses of air” to “less frequent”. Instead of having a constant gradual change in atmospheric conditions, we will have pockets of air moving across the Jet stream defining the weather wherever they move.”

From: Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Posted on February 10, 2015. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1975.7602

(updated 3/4/2018. with a contextualization of the short paragraph originally here written in order to help the reader whom might not prefer to read the analysis in full.

In October 2014 a new theoretical approach was proposed in the line of research published in this blog able to explain changes in atmospheric dynamics capable of triggering a climatic drift. In order to contrast the accuracy of the assessments and conclusions offered with real time developments I revisited those by looking at the atmospheric dynamics observed throughout the Winter 2014-15.

The results reached support the validity of the theoretical approach proposed and the foreseen consequences: “The common feature observed by the theory of Arctic Amplification and the theory of Energetic Gradients (proposed in the present line of research) share one single form of perspective over the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream: the weakening of the Jet Stream would allow more frequent intrusions of masses of air from both sides, inducing sudden and extreme changes in weather patterns for Northern and Southern latitudes. Once the barrier weakens, “warm and wet” currents of air would reach further North being dragged by High pressures moving at higher latitudes without the opposition of the Jet Stream.”

However, the theory of Energetic Gradients instead of seeing albedo or SST at Arctic altitudes as the trigger for atmospheric dynamics offers a new perspective where *Such dynamic are the result of an increase in energy being dispersed (water vapour) and contained (Permanent Greenhouse Gases and aerosols) throughout the atmosphere using water vapour as the carrier. Ultimately, mid-latitudinal “convective forcing” dominates over “orbital configurations” inducing an increase in the mixing ratio between masses of air previously compartmentalised through latitude and altitude. The changing force driving such energetic pulse could come from seeing an increase in the pool of energy in its free state as consequence of human activities transforming the global environment in its three phases; gaseous, liquid and solid. end update. 3/4/2018)

From: Drops of Weather. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)

“The implications raising from such type of atmospheric behaviour are yet to be fully understood. To begin with, the possibility of having sudden intrusions of masses of air inducing extreme changes in meteorological variables might affect the life cycle of the biota since the most of it, plants and animals, follows changes on Temp and Humidity suffering behavioural, hormonal and physiological alterations. Also it must be considered the rapid respond to those variables from species with a quick metabolism. Many of which, insects and fungi, might suffer blooming rates of growth coinciding with a vulnerable stage in the development of other species like crops and wild plants. This scenario opens questions which I believe are worthy to be included in a debate about “the possibility of its increasing frequency in the near future”, also discussed in previous posts (UPGRADED 11 March2015) Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla.)

From: Met Office. The Recent Storms and Floods in the UK (Feb 2014) (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on

Throughout my career I have studied and discussed the influence of atmospheric water vapour in the aerodynamic behaviour of one particle being part of the aerosol, pollen grains. In my research I already pointed out the need for further research about the implications of the biological atmospheric particle load by being involved in climate events through the microphysics of cloud formation due to the nuclei drop activity of such particles. Aerodynamics_of_pollen_grains_involved_in_sampling_efficiency. Thesis_by_Diego_Fernandez-Sevilla (2007)

Additionally, I also performed research about the impact that environmental heat increase and retention has in the atmospheric biological load due to the urban heat island effect. The results point out that the biological cycles of the biota are altered increasing the duration of their “pollen release” period (due to prolonged warm climatic conditions). The scenario created by the urban heat island effect has been already applied to extrapolate global climatic alterations in the biota suggesting an increase in plant performance (metabolism) inducing more bioaerosol released into the atmosphere.

I first presented this work at conferences in Turku 2008. Later published as: Assessment between pollen seasons in areas with different urbanization level related to local vegetation sources and differences in allergen exposure. Aerobiologia, Vol 26-1, 1-14. (2010)

Putting together my own experience in researching bioaerosols, my understanding of environmental processes and the findings by others I find enough dots connected to be very alert about the synergistic effects that the biota play and suffers as part of the whole system. For more about this topic you can check the links below and the posts from the categories at the top of this page (e.g. posts addressing the synergies between atmospheric events and Biological productivity.)

May 13, 2016 Another roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) May 13, 2015

… (see full article following the link here)

 

March 3, 2016 Extracted from the publication: Seasonality Spring 2016. Continuous follow-up on my previous research assessing atmospheric dynamics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) (follow link here to see whole publication) pdf DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2833.8968

Seasonality is a characteristic of a time series in which the data experiences regular and predictable changes which recur every calendar year. Any predictable change or pattern in a time series that recurs or repeats over a one-year period can be said to be seasonal.

The current situation through Feb/March 2016 in the atmospheric dynamics driving seasonality from Winter to Spring is bringing some interesting points around, and many of them are consistent with the developments expected from the line of research followed in this blog. So I want to share in this post the main principles which drive the standard interpretation of seasonality, the new outcomes from current conditions and the coherences found with my previous research published in this blog (and researchgate).

Seasonality as we know it

Every planet in our solar system has seasons. But the seasons that occur on other planets are extremely different from the traditional spring, summer, fall and winter weather that we experience here on Earth. Despite what may seem like great variations in temperature, weather and climactic conditions in different places around the globe, in reality there actually is little variation in Earth’s overall climate. Why?

There are several factors that affect the weather on the planets. Those factors are defined by two major characteristics.

The astrological interactions derived from the planet’s (Earth) position, shape and motion:

  • the tilt of the planet’s axis (which causes the seasons),
  • the shape of its orbit around the sun,
  • its average distance from the Sun,
  • and, the length of its day as result of how fast it rotates over the planet’s axis.

And, the presence/absence and composition of a significant atmosphere.

Earth’s axis is tilted about 23 degrees, causing the latitude of the Sun to vary from 23 degrees north of the equator at the beginning of northern summer to 23 degrees south of the equator at the beginning of northern winter. On Earth, that tilt is the primary reason for the differences in weather we observe between summer and winter. Planets with smaller tilts might have smaller weather variations; planets with larger tilts could have more extreme variations.

Earth_seasons

Our orbit is nearly circular, so there is little variation in Earth’s overall climate, averaged over both northern and southern hemispheres. But other planets have more elliptical orbits, and therefore their seasonal variations in weather are much different than what we experience. We are much further from the Sun than Mercury or Venus, but closer than the other six planets. Generally, weather variations are more pronounced for those planets closer to the Sun.

seasons.nasa

The terms “summer” and “winter” tend to be Earth-oriented terms but can be applied to the other planets as well. When the North Pole of any planet is tilted toward the sun, astronomers call it the Summer Solstice; when the South Pole is tilted toward the sun it’s called the Winter Solstice.

Seasonal Climate

The climate of our planet is the result of three main factors: solar energy, the greenhouse effect, and atmospheric and oceanic circulation. In addition, the geographic and seasonal variations in solar energy are determined by the curvature of the Earth, the inclination of its axis and its orbit around the Sun. These factors produce different climatic zones, which in turn affect the distribution of plant, animal and human populations. (ref link)

Climate-zones

The Sun is the central star of our solar system, which consists of 8 planets: Mercury, Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune.The “surface” of the Sun is very hot, with a temperature of about 6,000 degrees Celsius. Due to its position, neither too near nor too far from the Sun, the Earth is the only planet in the solar system that can host abundant life, in particular because its average surface temperature of 15 degrees Celsius enables the presence of liquid water. Solar energy and the presence of an atmosphere are the two main elements that condition the Earth’s temperature. Like the glass panels of a greenhouse, certain gases that are naturally present in the atmosphere, notably water vapor and carbon dioxide, trap heat from the sun, maintaining this mild average temperature on the planet’s surface. This natural phenomenon is called the greenhouse effect. Without it, the surface temperature of the Earth would be –18 degrees Celsius and life, if any life could be sustained, would be quite different.

Our atmosphere’s natural greenhouse effect is thus a beneficial phenomenon, without which life as we know it would not be possible. The greenhouse effect is often mentioned in the news as a dangerous phenomenon, but what really is dangerous is the intensification of the natural greenhouse effect.

Current conditions (march 3, 2016). When the Old news become New news. Follow-up from my previous research.

The current situation through Feb/March 2016 in the atmospheric dynamics driving seasonality from Winter to Spring is bringing some interesting points around, and many of them are consistent with the developments expected from the line of research followed in this blog.

The coldest part of a day cycle comes after the higher amount of hours in the dark, just before sunrise. The coldest part of the orbital cycle at the NH should be when we crossed over the winter solstice in Dec, and yet there is not enough differential in thermal contrast from low temp in the Arctic to build up a steady Polar Jet Stream.

Wind strengh 250 hPa Polar Jet Stream 2016-03-01

T2m anomaly from 2016-03-01

One repeated feature in atmospheric dynamics which I have observed since the beginning of my research in 2013 is the frequent intrusion of masses of air trespassing from both sides the barrier which should represent the Polar Jet Stream.

It is becoming a frequent scenario to see the displacement of cold air from the Arctic due to convective forcing from warmer masses of air getting into high latitudes and altitudes. The consequence from such dynamics is the alteration in the form, length and transition between seasons.

Follow-up from previous research published in this blog

This type of situations brings back some previous discussions addressed in several posts, in which I have point out the relevance of facing changes in the severity for the transition between climatic phases due to atmospheric alterations.

Based on my observations and analyses since 2013, in 2014 I made an assessment over the atmospheric dynamics driving the weather systems across the NH which led me to propose a theoretical approach which could explain new developments in climatic drifts.

In the following paragraphs I share bits of some of the most relevant publications addressing the coherence found between those and the current conditions. The whole work behind this piece of research is built by 120 posts addressing synergistic interactions from a multidisciplinary approach. Altogether they make a Theoretical Framework, a Conceptual Framework and an Assessment Framework on global environmental issues, addressing methodological approaches to fill in or find out gaps of knowledge, the title of this blog.

Therefore you should follow links or explore the blog in order to get deeper insight on any aspect you feel missing (from the influence of solar activity, aerosols, human waste, etc…). Also you will find videos with graphic representation of my work at youtube.

March 3, 2016 continues from the publication: Seasonality Spring 2016. Continuous follow-up on my previous research assessing atmospheric dynamics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) (follow link here to see whole publication)

Follow-up from previous research presented in this blog

From A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla).

I believe that the present weather events, altogether with the tornado seen in Venice on July, represent some of the new “Drops of Weather” coming over to say that the Summer, as we know it, is coming to an end.

The reason behind it seems to be the sporadic and unpredictable behaviour of the Jet stream, which not only is wobbly in latitude, but also in the vertical profile of the atmosphere. Accordingly, we can see that when it comes to lower levels from 300hPa induces alterations in the thermodynamical behaviour of the tropospheric circulation. In turn, when this cold air touches the lower level of our atmosphere, activates the energy accumulated in the Water vapour contained in it as latent heat, delivering new forms of energy; kinetic provoking strong winds, electrostatic generating lightnings and potential carried in the mass of all the water coming from its gaseous state into liquid or solid precipitation.

I have already discussed what is my theory about what it is happening that it is generating such a wobbly jet stream in latitude and altitude. This theory was published in a previous post and it points out the incorporation of masses of water vapour into polar latitudes as consequence of CO2 forcing as the cause wearing out the strength of the Polar Jet Stream.

I also have suggested that such incorporation of masses of water vapour into Polar Latitudes follow channels which are linked with persistent cyclonic events in the Atlantic and the Pacific. The present patterns seen in the circulation over the Pacific and the Atlantic are consistent with those proposed in this theory.

Ultimately, if this theory is right and weather patterns are incorporating water vapour into Polar latitudes, it would affect:

    • The strength of the Polar Jet Stream becoming wobbly from the bottom up, from tropospheric circulation forcing instead of being from the configuration of the stratospheric Polar vortex, (more here)
    • Introduction of water vapour into Arctic Polar latitudes would decrease temperature gradients in the Pole reducing ice and snow cover, (more here)
    • that would induce ice melting which in turn would affect SST and Oceanic circulation in the Atlantic and Pacific. That would explain the cold anomaly in SST in the North Atlantic, thus the AMOC and global thermohialine circulation going around the Antarctic and arriving at the Pacific.(more here)
    • Arctic Polar masses of air getting warmed up would become involved in translatitudinal circulation from the Atlantic and the Pacific through the Arctic, in a breathing like cycle. That would open a new channel for balancing gradients of atmospheric pressure between the atmospheric masses of air above both Oceans. That would explain the synchronicity between Low pressures observed in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, (more here).
  • An interconnection between Atlantic and Pacific atmospheric circulation through the Arctic would affect Equatorial winds. That would have an impact over the distribution of SST being dominated by them, being the most relevant the ENSO.(more here and here)
  • Furthermore, new channels breaking the restriction of keeping warm masses of air bellow Polar circulation would release the thermodynamical limits for equatorial latitudes to absorb water and heat, therefore, increasing thermal conductivity towards upper latitudes. That would explain heat waves moving upward in latitude.(more here and here)
  • At the same time, incorporating the possibility for subtropical circulation to occupy the volume of space at Polar latitudes would allow the global circulation to absorb more energy without steep increases in temperature thanks to the extra volume added to be occupied.(more here)
  • An homogenization in the amount of energy carried in the atmosphere by water vapour would induce a decrease between gradients of energy. That would allow atmospheric events to persist in location and time due to the reduced capacity of the atmosphere to dissipate its energy.(more here)
  • The amount of energy being accommodated by the atmosphere would behave like electricity, being tamed by the capacity of the surroundings to absorb and conduct it. But, like a short circuit, the energy contained in the atmosphere, could overwhelm the capacity for the surroundings to cope with it in a smoothly manner, triggering abrupt discharges from energy in latent heat form carried by the water vapour, into potential energy carried by the masses of water in form of hail and rain, and kinetic energy generating strong winds. All those forms of energy capable of decimating crops, houses and even killing animals as we have seen in some videos in this post.(more here)

Most definitely, I believe that the climate in our Earth is what it lies between waters. Between cold waters and warms waters, between waters in the atmosphere or those in the ground inland or at the oceans. Altogether, our climate lies on those processes moving energy between waters in the form of gas, liquid or solid.

Data available supporting previous assessments

An international team of university and NASA scientists examined the relationship between changes in surface temperature and vegetation growth from 45 degrees north latitude to the Arctic Ocean. Results show temperature and vegetation growth at northern latitudes now resemble those found 4 degrees to 6 degrees of latitude farther south as recently as 1982.

“Higher northern latitudes are getting warmer, Arctic sea ice and the duration of snow cover are diminishing, the growing season is getting longer and plants are growing more,” said Ranga Myneni of Boston University’s Department of Earth and Environment. “In the north’s Arctic and boreal areas, the characteristics of the seasons are changing, leading to great disruptions for plants and related ecosystems.”

The study was published March 10, 2013 in the journal Nature Climate Change.

Of the 10 million square miles (26 million square kilometers) of northern vegetated lands, 34 to 41 percent showed increases in plant growth (green and blue), 3 to 5 percent showed decreases in plant growth (orange and red), and 51 to 62 percent showed no changes (yellow) over the past 30 years. Satellite data in this visualization are from the AVHRR and MODIS instruments, which contribute to a vegetation index that allows researchers to track changes in plant growth over large areas. Credit: NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

The missing links

The transition from facing changes at a regional scale into changes at global scale only takes to have enough regional changes to coalescence. And that applies to all parts of the ecosystem, changes in the liquid phase (Oceans), the solid or terrestrial and the gaseous/the atmosphere.

What we see is a pattern in thermodynamic circulation and biotic reaction.

Plant cover over the Arctic will increase the potential for the atmosphere to retain water vapour through evapotranspiration so it becomes a positive feedback reaction towards extending the influence of the warmer masses of air transported from mid latitudes into polar circulation.

That will increase the amount of energy that the atmosphere can hold and spread over the whole Hemisphere and beyond Equatorial limits extending to the South Hemisphere. There, water vapour will face the contrast from the non-existence of continentality so ice would increase like frost over the Antarctica. However, the Ocean circulation will be affected interacting with such transport creating a new scenario full of contrasts.

But that is just an opinion, my opinion.

About “applying Stefan Boltzmann calculations to explain that the whole radiative forcing greenhouse conjecture fails to explain reality”. I have to say the following (see full analysis on applying Stefan Boltzmann calculations in this link) :

“Thermal energy is being transferred by diffusion”. Heat is thermal energy. It can be transferred from one place to another by conduction, convection and radiation. Conduction and convection involve particles, radiation involves electromagnetic waves. Heat can only be transferred between “existent” molecules. Without them, like in out-space, there is not temperature or heat transference. Our atmosphere contains heat because it contains molecular compounds absorbing and transferring heat. The case of GHGs is that they are among the most thermal conductive molecular compounds found in the atmosphere. It is like cooking dry food. You need a substance to transfer the heat to cook aliments. Oil is good but water gets the heat inside the food cause its heat properties. There is no diffusion of heat in a vacuum of thermal flask. Thus it is important to identify the type and concentration of atmospheric gases.

“May be” the Stefan Boltzmann calculations can not be applied to explain the mean surface temperature of a body which is not homogeneous in composition in any of its parts, solid-liquid and gaseous, none-uniform on its surface albedo, thermodynamically active on its core and atmosphere, irregularly shaped, not flat neither a perfect sphere, in constant motion and with 50% of its surface solar radiated meanwhile the other 50% is not. All those contrasts in the horizontal and the vertical assessments are relevant. Maybe the stratification of heat could be explain by S-B for a uniform body like the Sun, and yet At 20,000-25,000 km away from the solar surface the corona has an average temperature of 1,000,000 to 2,000,000 million degrees Celsius. But the density is very low, about 1 billion times less dense than water.

When it is applied on this matter the idea of that “The surface is cooled by GHG’s in the atmosphere. It is the atmosphere itself that is warmed as infrared light, reflected from earth’s surface, travels back toward space. This reflected light is absorbed by GHG’s and the air is warmed. This is the heat trapping property of GHG’s”

I would say that such point is similar to what happens by role played by sweat in cooling the body by allowing water to evaporate off the skin. The problem from GHGs is that their presence above the earth’s surface reduce the difference in temperature between them and the surface. In that way the reduction in the difference reduces the capacity of the atmosphere to diffuse the heat received at the surface. That creates positive feedback loop which moves towards increasing the amount of heat being contained in both parts of the column.

… (see full assessment following the link to the publication)

November 17, 2016 Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)  (pdf) Researchgate:  DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.24688.35848

The Arctic Amplification theory defends that the ice cover missing is due to a “massive heat release in/by the Arctic into the atmosphere”.

Based on my research, the ice cover missing is not due to a “massive heat release to the atmosphere (Arctic Amplification)” but due to an introduction of heat from mid-latitudes. The Arctic snow and ice cover is lower on its rate of recovery from summer, so there is not a melt down releasing heat. The absence of “solid water” comes from the heat being transferred by intrusions of warm air. These warm intrusions are reducing the differential in energy gradients between oceanic water and atmosphere so there is not enough contrast to grow ice or to form enough snow. Since the heat can only be contained and transferred by matter, the atmosphere in the arctic containing the heat shows to carry moist from midLat instead of being dry air from Arctic circulation, and it is having an effect below its position (reducing Arctic ice cover and warming up oceanic temperatures) as well as above it, inducing the weak polar vortex.

In short what I am trying to highlight is the fact that the Arctic is a half full/half empty scenario. But we have to remember that cold is the absence of heat.

The process of thinking described by the Arctic Amplification theory comes from assuming that there is an increase of heat being released by/in the Arctic.

Based on my previous research presented in this blog, I disagree with that.

The thermal energy accumulated through summer in the Arctic can not be transferred into the atmosphere if this atmosphere is Arctic Dry Air as it used to be. The heat contained by Arctic masses of air comes with the air mass in itself due to the moisture carried from Mid Laitudes. Since there is thermal heat within the mass of air, the heat absorbed by the Arctic oceans can not be transferred into the atmosphere and freeze in the process. Therefore there is a reduction in Ice/Snow cover. But also affects the stability of the Polar Vortex from the bottom up.

The weather outlook linked to this process would be the following:

“The door of the Arctic freezer is not closed properly. In other words, the Polar Jet Stream is too weak to keep the Arctic isolated from Mid-Latitude intrusions. With such weak Polar Jet Stream configuration we are going to get “frost” all over the place. For as long as warm air gets into the Arctic the air already there will get pushed out.”

See full analysis with imagery and animations following the link at the title.

December 17, 2016 Extract from the publication: Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)   Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20129.81760

Being CO2 a molecular element enhancing atmospheric thermal conductance, and aerosols acting as droplet nuclei in cloud formation, their combined effect altogether with alterations in the water cycles and energy flows due to anthropogenic activity would increase the capacity for the atmosphere to absorb, contain and disperse water vapour. But more importantly, this water vapour would incorporate an increase of energy into the atmospheric pool which it would affect atmospheric developments such as the strength, paths and life periods of lows and highs as much as those events concentrating energetic discharges in form of precipitation, wind and heat or cold waves.

The outcome from such assessment foresees an spreading of energy through the atmosphere in Latitude and Altitude, driving a climatic drift which will affect life cycles in animals and plants as well as in soil degradation and water availability.

The assessments presented through the series of publications shared in the line of research published in this blog apply a point of view which considers an order of factors driven by thermodynamical principles. As the process followed in the order of the steps taken to cook the recipe to make an environment.

All these assessments foresee a change in the progression of Seasonality from Orbital Driven to Kinetic driven, considering kinetic an expression of the energy being driving the seasonal climatic regimes around the latitudes and longitudes.

… (see full assessment following the link to the publication)

 

_________________________

“Filling in and Finding out gaps of knowledge”


Between 2014 and 2016 I shared analyses over real time developments in order to validate the hypothesis behind the conclusions offered in 2013. After 2016 I incorporated the process of validating those against time by re-publishing them in contrast with the developments seen in the following years. For the Winter 17-18 I actually have re-published previous assessments with a month or two prior to the period of time addressed in order to evaluate its potential representing a pattern.

In Feb 2017, the line of research presented in this blog reached a final stage in which its framework has demonstrated to hold and support the theoretical approach behind the study bringing original and innovative insights into the state of knowledge addressing environmental synergies by “Filling in and Finding out gaps of knowledge”.

March 23, 2017 Final Review in Progress. March 2017. From ENSO to Scientific Thinking by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.33915.82726

Theories have been formulated to explain, predict, and understand phenomena and, in many cases, to challenge and extend existing knowledge within the limits of critical bounding assumptions.

October 21, 2014 New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4859.3440
November 14, 2014 Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2500.0488
February 10, 2015 Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1975.7602/1
October 21, 2015 Discussing Climatic Teleconnections. Follow Up On My Previous Research (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2962.7605
January 20, 2017 Climate and Indexes. A dashboard of Confusion. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25016.96007
April 19, 2018 Climate, Weather and Energy. Using a Climatic Regime to explain Weather Events by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Research DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.27923.58406

Numerous Follow-ups over previous assessments have been published contrasting their validity against real-time developments (in the timeline section below use ctrl+F: “follow-up”) challenging and legitimizing the conclusions offered:

  • Models confuse the science in which those are applied. Factions opposed in views will not come together by using models. And even there is no need for it. Darwin did not need an algorithm and a model to identify genetic evolution. The observational evidence was so strong that unified the scientific community. And evolution is a process comparable with climate, reacts to pressures.
“The Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything” is … 42 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2400.2324 May 15, 2014
Debating Climate, Environment and Planetary evolution. Define your position. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.27332.73603 October 2, 2014
The scope of Environmental Science and scientific thought. From Thought-driven to Data-driven, from Critical Thinking to Data Management. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2007.0161 June 26, 2015
March 10, 2017 Modelling the “Model” and the Observer (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.17558.04169
February 6, 2018 Feb 2018. Climate Drifts and The Scientific Method of Waiting 30 Years. Follow up on previous assessments by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18823.09122
  • Arctic Amplification takes an assumption open for discussion: “sea ice acts as a barrier for the heat transport from the ocean to the atmosphere.” Actually, sea ice acts as a barrier for the heat transport *from the atmosphere to the ocean. The line of research offered taking Arctic SST as responsible for warming processes is not considering the thermodynamics behind changes in phase (liquid/solid/gas) and the difference between condensible and not condensible GHGs. Heat moves between locations AND phases. SST warming the atmosphere would loose heat, thus forming ice.
November 17, 2016 Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.24688.35848
December 17, 2016 Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20129.81760
February 28, 2018 Arctic Warming as a Result of Convective Forcing by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD  Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34551.73125
  • Between global warming and global cooling there is global mixing.
September 8, 2015 Trans-Arctic circulation between Pacific and Atlantic Basins. A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla).  Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1697.5847
May 26, 2016 Atmospheric Circulation and the Mixing Zone. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34019.04645
July 1, 2016 Atmospheric mixing. Indian Basin June 2016 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.11803.98088
August 26, 2016 Aug 2016 Follow-up on previous assessments. Atmospheric Dynamics, Temperature Displacements, Atmospheric Mixing (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

September 14, 2016 Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.19874.63684
October 13, 2016 Global Mixing in Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.21255.60320
May 5, 2017 Mixing Dynamics keep shaping A Roller coaster of Temperatures over South Europe. Follow-up on previous research 5th May 17. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.16627.43043
June 9, 2017 “Mixing Dynamics” in the Atmosphere. A follow-up on previous research by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.23548.03209
March 14, 2018 Visualising Wind and Convective Forcing Driving Climatic Dynamics. Follow-up 14 March 2018 by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD  Pdf available at DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34233.06249
April 19, 2018 Climate, Weather and Energy. Using a Climatic Regime to explain Weather Events by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Research DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.27923.58406
  • Anthropogenic transformations over the structure and composition of the three phases of the environment (Gaseous-Atmosphere, Solid- Land Use and Cover, Liquid-Water bodies) have reduced CxHxOx and increased CxOx+HxOx, CxHx, as well as albedo, … altering the energetic balance in the thermodynamic system which conforms our Climatic regimes.
July 24, 2015 Solar Activity and Human Activity, Settling Their Environmental Liability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36702.33606
March 3, 2017 Thermodynamic Ecosystems by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.32238.10566
May 26, 2017 The CO2 Greening Effect Review. CO2 Makes Headlines To Grow Like Trees, Shaping Different Forests Offering Different Views (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.16286.33601
March 23, 2017 Final Review in Progress. March 2017. From ENSO to Scientific Thinking by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.33915.82726

You can look at the whole project (more than 200 analyses published between 2013 and 2018) published at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com and also you will find some of those publications with a DOI in my profile at ResearchGate

Conclusions on:

Weather, Climate, Energy, Environment and Man


The question  driving the whole debate on Climatic Deviations from “a Normal”, or Climatic Drift, focus most of the methodologies on temperature.

However I have followed a different approach in my analyses looking at Gradients of Energy in all its forms. That is why in 2014 I offered my thoughts as a theory of practical applications.

Energy fuels the work done by warm masses of air displacing colder masses of air in their path. That increases mixing patterns generating anomalies in temperature.

Behind an increase in the amount of work carried out by masses of air there is an increase in the energy fuelling such dynamics. Energy can only be transferred, not created or destroyed. So more work means more energy in circulation. More energy in circulation can only be sustained by a substance carrying it. Either if we consider that the energy driving anomalies comes from the Sun or from the Oceans, the carrier has to be in the atmosphere in order for the energy to produce work. And the body loosing heat cools down.

E.g. A corridor of wind over the Arctic is triggered by a conversion of Temperature into work, convection and advection, which are the result of mixing masses of air. As I have published in previous analyses, such Trans-Arctic connection between Atlantic and Pacific Basins is part of a pattern increasing the mixing ratio between masses of air otherwise separated by thermal compartmentalization, like the Polar Jet Stream. An increase in the dispersion of energetic forms have different outcomes, one of which it would be a temporary reduction in the average temperature resultant for the mixing between Cold (Arctic) and warm (Mid-Latitude) masses of air as well as in altitude (SSW).

Subsequently, “temperature” is less reliable than looking at “work” seen even in the “mild” events.

In the framework presented throughout the line of research published in this blog (and researchgate) it has been considered “Climate” as being defined by the amount of energy free to do work. In other words, energy free to promote weather events. Accordingly, in my research I define Climate by the amount and state of energy in circulation, and Weather by the use of this energy.

Consequently, with the definition applied for Climate and Weather, my definition of Climate Drift is:

“the deviation from equilibrium of the conditions allowing the perpetuity of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in a micro and macro ecosystem. This situation can be due to changes in any component of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes can be either a change in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality or rates in the flows of energy pre-established OR/AND the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components/forces and energy sinks or sources in any part of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance.”

In my assessments I have defended that the increase in the energy pool at mid-latitudes would ultimately create an scenario with an overcharged atmosphere. That would reduce the contrasts with which to create and maintain stability in the structure required to condense energy in singular events, like hurricanes. Giving more relevance to the single contrast between Ocean/continental masses. However, the opening of the Arctic circulation through a weak Jet Stream would reduce the pressure in the containment absorbing the condensation of energy at mid-latitudes, expanding into a new volume.

Accordingly, hadley circulation gets affected (see also) generating new patterns of turbulence at the ITCZ as well as it gets influenced Arctic mixing zones with lower latitudes.

In this scenario TCs are generated under an increase in the mixing ratio of an unstable atmospheric circulation dominated by kinetic energy transferred by water vapour thanks to GHGs, and immersed in an overcharged atmosphere with no place where to diffuse its energy, becoming resilient as long as they stay over the ocean. So they endure like a piece of an ice rock in cold water.

About Sea Surface Temperatures, my assessments take SST as subsequent conditions driven by wind shear. So the interaction between masses of air in circulation allowes or inhibits SST developments. Once the scenario is built on SST this becomes a “battle field” conditioning the subsequent interaction between the following masses of air and the characteristics of the “grounds” where the game will be played (sort of speak). Like the effect of the ice conditions in an ice hockey match.

El Niño is an event which happens in a very small portion of the Earth, it is related to the temperature of a very thin layer of the Ocean in depth, a small percentage of the area occupied by the whole Oceanic masses, and even smaller when it is integrated in the multidimensional space combining Ocean and atmosphere. It is kind of intriguing to think why it has been so easy to conclude that such small portion of the entire system is driving it as a whole. It is like considering that the flowering of plants drives the seasons. Similarly it could be said about using SST at the Arctic to justify altogether; the lack of ice, warmer temperatures at tropospheric level and even at stratospheric level. There is not enough energy in the SST of such small area as it is the Arctic to justify all those convective dynamics.

(March 22, 2016 Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1968.5521).

Statistical Significance. The Scary Side of Being Mild (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.21934.61767

In my research I have been very persistent trying to highlight how much relevance it is given to a small area in size and depth driving global circulation as it is the SST at the Eq Pacific while an area of the same size and even more depth could be identified in the Amazon or by the change suffered in Land cover by agriculture at global scale.

We have to consider that SST are measured in the 5 or less m of the Ocean meanwhile Forests can occupy more than 15 meters in depth. And both are sources of the latent heat carried out in the atmosphere which fuels convective dynamics dominating intrusions over the Arctic.

Analyses which I published in my line of research some time ago studying the impact from changes in Land cover over atmospheric dynamics:

  • April 23, 2015 Matching Features Between Land Surface and Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20035.30247. https://wp.me/p403AM-xK 
  • June 10, 2016 The Butterfly Effect on Arctic Circulation. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) https://wp.me/p403AM-12H

This year 2018 many of the topics discussed through the line presented show to be supported by conclusions discussed throughout all the analyses presented:

  • There is no need for the Polar Vortex to Break in order to have Arctic displacements into Mid-Latitunal circulation. Tropospheric Circulation fuelled by convective forcing is affecting Arctic circulation from the bottom up instead of the theory suggesting Stratospheric forcing.
  • The ENSO is not a driver of convective forcing over the NH,
  • Convective forcing from Mid-latitudinal towards the Arctic circulation has wear off the gradients of temperature generating a strong Polar Jet Stream.
  •  Arctic warming occurs through atmospheric intrusions from Mid Latitudes,
  • The collapse of the Polar Jet Stream has opened Arctic circulation to Mid-Latitudinal intrusions allowing Trans-Arctic circulation between Pacific and Atlantic Basins.
  •  The global Temperature measured is the resultant of mixing patterns in the atmosphere,
  • Therefore an increase in mixing dynamics creates a pause in temperature raise,
  • An increase in mixing dynamics show an increase in convective forcing,
  • Convective forcing is the work resultant from an increase in atmospheric energy being incorporated in free state,
  • The incorporation and spread of energy in free state into the atmosphere is carried and released by water vapour
  • An increase of water vapour in atmospheric circulation requires an increase in the thermal capacity of the atmosphere
  • The process of enhancing the thermal capacity of the atmosphere comes by increasing the concentration of GHGs, conc of aerosols and land surface albedo.
  • Several processes carried out by human activity are linked with the previous assessment: human activity reduces the capacity of the biotic environment to fix energy from free state into inert state by reducing biochemical processing and storage (CxHxOx photosynthesis and biomass) and increases atmospheric concentrations of GHGs by releasing CO2 and H2O into the atmosphere. Also, land use and cover transformations increase albedo, industrial activities increase aerosols and the compartmentalization of water affects water cycles.
  • In a thermodynamic system the energetic pool is the sum of the amount of energy in free state capable of doing work, and the energy fixed in an inert form as part of mass. The amount of energy in free state is proportional to the amount of energy fixed in inert form as mass (E=mc2). The release of energy from its inert form increases the amount of energy in free state to do work. Energy is not created, neither destroyed. The transformation of the three phases of the environment forced by human activities, gaseous (atmosphere), liquid (water cycle) and solid (land use and cover), increases the amount of energy in free state capable of promoting all forms of work; convective forcing, strong winds, solid and liquid precipitation, lightning, dust storms, heat waves, cold displacements, and ultimately, and increase in atmospheric mixing in altitude and across latitudes.

There have been four assessments showing major discrepancies between the line of research presented here and main stream scientific coverage. The assessments are about the concept of climate drift, the link between the Polar Vortex and tropospheric circulation, the role played by SST and the ENSO, and the dynamics explaining abnormal Arctic Warming and sea ice cover.

Polar Vortex

November 14, 2014 Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)

Climate Drift

October 21, 2014 (Updated 22/Dec/14) New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4859.3440
February 10, 2015 (UPGRADED 24th March2015) Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1975.7602/1
Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Drift. Are we there yet? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) July 2, 2015
September 2, 2016 Climate Drift, The True Meaning of Things and the Drift of Those. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)
February 6, 2018 Feb 2018. Climate Drifts and The Scientific Method of Waiting 30 Years. Follow up on previous assessments by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18823.09122

Arctic Amplification

November 17, 2016 Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

SST and ENSO

December 11, 2015 Could It Be El Niño The New “Wolf” Coming? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.3238.2801
March 22, 2016 Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)  Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1968.5521
June 23, 2017 “Seasonal Outlook. June 2017 (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25428.91528

Discussion

The analyses performed in my line of research describe a Climatic Drift, from pre-established atmospheric conditions strongly compartmentalised in Altitude and Latitude, towards a Climatic Regime characterised by an instability originated by patterns of Trans-latitudinal and Vertical mixing. An increase in atmospheric motion inducing sudden and extreme changes in atmospheric conditions generating weather events with abnormal properties for a particular location, throughout latitudes, longitudes and altitudes.

Einstein and his developments were mainly applied in physics due to the use that it was made of his work with the aim to manipulate energy in times of conflict, or to understand space. The equation is simple E=mc2. The language of physics has dominated the discussion over physical developments since then and it has been established as the logical translation of climatic developments. However, in the current times, the role of scientific understanding demands to move beyond the barriers of language, either between semantic cultural languages and between disciplines.

Being myself a Biologist involved in Atmospheric dynamics applying physics to explain such a complex subject as it is climatic evolution might seem like the tale of the child claiming that the Emperor has no clothes.

And yet, it seems to me evident that a thermodynamic system as it is our planet, can not scape from the most basic and powerful understanding of our contemporary scientific evolution. If E=MC2, and the anthropogenic activity is increasing the transformation of M into Energy in the system (from burning Mass from fossils and vegetable components, as well as by liberating other forms of energy such as gravimetric in Dams, Solar, transformation of raw materials, etc,) such transformation rate will move the balance in the thermodynamic behaviour of the whole system, and the rate of such deviation from equilibrium will be related with the speed at which the transformation rate between E/M is performed: M>(c)2

Conclusions

The main conclusion from my 4 years of researching synergistic interactions between all transformations seen over the Liquid, Gaseous and solid phases of our global Environment indicates that anthropogenic activity is forcing our environment into A System Becoming Dominated By Free Energy. (DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18509.13289)

The biotic component of our environmental system is the only one capable of interacting against thermodynamic entropy, against instability. And for as long as Human activity can not replicate such mechanisms in equilibrium with the resources consumed, it might be time to think about domesticating Human Activities instead of following the obsession for Domesticating Natural Behaviour and Geoengineer our Weather. 

Overall Conclusions

An increase in the amount of energy being in “free” state means that kinetic processes will increasingly dominate thermodynamic processes, inducing a transition in our Seasonal and Climatic regimes from being driven by Orbital Positioning to be driven by more erratic Kinetic processes.


Imagery and Methodology


Nowadays, there are many divisions between disciplines due to the isolated nature of their specific language and methodologies. I might not use the right vocabulary for all the fields which I discuss, or the right data or the right reasoning. But when nobody is able to offer a consensus over what is going on, I wonder, what is right this days?.

After leaving months, even years of time to expose my conclusions for public discussion and review, once those have no faced any criticism or arguments refuting their value, I create a pdf file and a DOI publishing them at my profile in Researchgate. In order to maintain their genuineness and legitimate innovative nature, I keep its original state so those can be compared with any copy made by any third party at any time. For your own references and review over its originality over time with respect to other publications via scientific papers and/or news reports, you can compare the publications at the blog and researchgate with the records archived:


This work is protected under Intellectual Property laws licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.)

EGU discussed open science in 2017. GDB4 – Is Open Science the way to go?”. Min 27. The currency of data and data parasites. Min 35 Creative commons license. Min 45 Data Sharing and rules of engagement. min 56 Q&A Data Citations and Credit on producing data) https://lnkd.in/e89qv_Z

I am in transition looking for new opportunities and new challenges, to join a team. At the same time that I look for job openings to incorporate my resume, I would encourage any one finding interesting any of the skills which I apply throughout my research, as well as communicator, to evaluate my profile as a candidate for your projects (Profile at Linkedin and CV english and español) email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

After performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, in 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new job. However, in such competitive scenario, instead of just moving my cv between desks waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I used it as an advantageous standing point to start and develop independent research in a blog in which I could open my own line of research completely free of external pressures or interferences. Through the whole project I have published pieces of research applying my own perspective focused on addressing relevant environmental questions.

The work which I present in my blog is just a chapter in my career. At Feb 2017, it has reached an stage in which its framework has been defined and it has been applied in follow-ups delivering the subsequent conclusions.

The level of uncertainty which I have accomplished in my assessments has reached enough accuracy to replicate real time developments to the point of compete with models sustained by corporate and administrative budgets.

The economic support sustaining the three years of research presented in this blog has been private based on my own capacity to generate it. Once the main conclusions of the project have demonstrated their value, it is time for my career to find new ways of growth and/or external sources of financial support.

You can look at the whole project (more than 190 posts between Oct 2013 to Feb 2017) published at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com and also you will find some of those publications in my profile at ResearchGate

I am living in Spain free to relocate geographically worldwide.

Since October 2013 I have been publishing pieces of research studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.

Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License, WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in Researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.

Author’s Disclosure Declaration

For those unaware of the content offered in this blog I might have to issue a warning: Handle with care. Also with the product obtained from scientific analytical thinking there are traces of personal and professional “passion”, by-products obtained from “original and unpeered grey matter juice” originated from “independent critical thinking”. Also sometimes the packaging might be rough around the edges due to its “unfunded nature”.

4 years ago I joined a discussion which made me realise how much knowledge was settled on the past, built upon past conventions and unable to give answers about present developments in all parts of our environment. From the impact from GMOs, plastics, soils degradation, atmospheric composition, land use and cover, water cycles, … I had addressed scientifically unanswered questions before doing my PhD so I decided to give it a go and to offer my take over those gaps. It has been a pilgrimage to become aware of how much faith and fear is put on scientific publishing above raw understanding and discussion.

I do not know how far this blog will go, however, it represents the assessment of a global process and I expect that past posts will become a description of continuous present for the next years.

Altogether, the body of work which represents the line of research presented in this blog is composed by more than 190 pieces, covering data analyses and conceptual discussions. All those different discussions and assessments presented here build together a single concept. The format applied is the result of making a big effort trying to apply simplistic approaches with the aim to allow a multidisciplinary access. Since the topics treated in my publications have implications for many sectors in the academic and not academic world, with the aim of allowing my research for open review, there is also the objective of allowing access to a multisectorial and multidisciplinary audience sharing interest.

For a more profound discussion over my assessments and analyses as well as constructive feedback, please use my email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com.

My agenda is simple, I am in transition looking for either funding to grow the research published in this blog or for a job position in any field in which my assets are valued. Behind my research there is nothing more, nothing else than to showcase my capabilities doing what I like, research. I am a methodologist. I don´t look at the color of the result obtained, only at the suitability of the method and the coherence of the result. As I have said before, if I am wrong on my assessments and conclusions, it will be better for all, and my work would showcase my capabilities anyway. A CV shines the goals obtained by anyone, but by publishing here my research, I expose myself and my work to public judgement. There is a difference between being naive and raw. If you see the difference you will understand better my work and my personal position.

The aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. So any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time of at least a month from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found refuting the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.

In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will help me in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.

(This post is part of a more complex piece of independent research. I don´t have funding, political agenda or publishing revenues from visits. Any scientist working in disciplines related with the topics that I treat in my blog knows how to judge the contribution that my work could potentially add to the state of knowledge. Since I am in transition looking for a position in research, if you are one of those scientists, by just acknowledging any value you might see from my contribution, would not only make justice to my effort as independent researcher, but ultimately, it will help me to enhance my chances to find a position with resources to further develop my work.

I believe that the hypothesis that I have presented in previous posts in this blog (here, hereand here) could help to understand present and possible future scenarios in atmospheric circulation. However, this is an assessment based on observation which needs to be validated throughout open discussion and data gathering. So please feel free to incorporate your thoughts and comments in a constructive manner.

If you feel like sharing this post I would appreciate to have a reference about the place or platform, by private or public message, in order for me to have the opportunity to join the debate and be aware of the repercussion which might generate d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

More assessments presenting chronologically the line of research published in this blog can be accessed in the category Framework and Timeline.

For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out, updated 09th Dec 2016):

About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Data policy The products processed by "Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD" are made available to the public for educational and/or scientific purposes, without any fee on the condition that you credit "Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD" as the source. Copyright notice: © Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD 2013-2019 orcid: orcid.org/0000-0001-8685-0206 and the link to its source at diegofdezsevilla.wordpress or permanent DOI found at Reearchgate. Should you write any scientific publication on the results of research activities that use Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD products as input, you shall acknowledge the Diego Fdez-Sevilla's PhD Project in the text of the publication and provide an electronic copy of the publication (d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com). If you wish to use the Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD products in advertising or in any commercial promotion, you shall acknowledge the Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Project and you must submit the layout to Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD for approval beforehand (d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com). The work here presented has no economic or institutional support. Please consider to make a donation to support the means for making sustainable the energy, time and resources required. Also any sponsorship or mentoring interested would be welcome. Intellectual Property This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! For those publications missing at the ResearchGate profile vinculated with this project DOIs can be generated on demand by request at email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com. **Author´s profile: Born in 1974. Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my work previous to 2013 as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After 12 years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, in 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my own line of research. In the current competitive scenario, in order to demonstrate my capacities instead of just moving my cv waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I decided to invest my energy and time in opening my own line of research sharing it in this blog. In March 2017 the budget reserved for this project has ended and its weekly basis time frame discontinued until new forms of economic and/or institutional support are incorporated into the project. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this platform and at LinkedIn has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my achievements and that the Intellectual Property Rights generated with the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in similar lines of research. **Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome as well as any approach exploring professional opportunities.** In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2019, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects, don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access and DOIs found at the Framework and Timeline page and ResearchGate. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2018. Filling in or/and Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/ ***
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5 Responses to Arctic Dynamics as part of a Global Pattern in Atmospheric Circulation. Research Follow-up October 2018 (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)

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