Could It Be El Niño The New “Wolf” Coming? Discussing SST ” El Niño ” and Climatic Developments. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)


Could It Be El Niño The New “Wolf” Coming? Discussing SST ” El Niño ” and Climatic Developments. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

Citation. Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. Blog “Filling in or Finding out” http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com. This content is part of the publication with DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.3238.2801. ) (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) (PDF Download Available at researchgate.net

Right or wrong, I am not following main stream interpretations for the links ENSO-Atmosphere-ENSO and it is not my intention here to push my ideas out of context or without arguments.

However, under the constant cry over the El Niño coming, I wonder, could it be El Niño de new “wolf” coming?

Fig 1. SST and atmospheric Temperature Anomalies 2015

Based on the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream since I started to follow it in 2013 I actually believe that the high SST at the Mediterranean sea and the Barents sea with the low SST at the North central Atlantic are better indicators to understand links between oceanic and atmospheric dynamics than the SST anomalies at the 3.4 Pacific Equator.

TAO140w_1990_2015 Diego Fdez-Sevilla

Under my point of view, the attention driven towards Equatorial Pacific SST is underestimating the existence of a strong connection between Arctic atmospheric circulation and thermal advection and convection processes at subtropical, tropical and equatorial latitudes. And the observational expression of it comes through the behaviour of the Jet Stream and stratospheric teleconnections.

enso 97 2015

SST conditions in 1997 (left) and 2015 (right)

ENSO in contrast

Previous and current state of research from previous publications in this blog by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

Intrusions of warm and wet masses of air over the Atlantic and West Europe, going from 30lat to 60 and even 80 lat, are keeping repeated since at least 2013, without el Niño or the Polar vortex broken.

See previous posts:

Current state of atmospheric circulation:

June 2015

GFS-025deg_ARC-LEA2_PWTR_2015-06-06_1200UTC_init

October 2015

GFS-025deg_ARC-LEA_PWTR_2015-10-29_0000UTC_init

until 2015_11_12 multisat.ir Diego Fdez-Sevilla

Arctic Multisatellite IR capture of 50 intervals every 4 h until 20 Nov 2015

I can only interpret the actual state of the atmospheric circulation under the consideration of that the thermal conductivity of the atmosphere has increased (heat waves in summer and warm intrusions into the North in Winter).

Radiation Water

As a result, we have a weak jet stream consequence of a wearing off effect from introducing energy carried by water vapour into polar latitudes, despite of having or not a Polar vortex broken.

My opinion based on previous and actual state of atmospheric circulation.

I maintain what I have wrote in my blog from Nov 2014

The warm SST at the Eq Pacific is part of a cycle, the cold SST at north Atlantic, and warm SST at Barents sea and Mediterranean sea are not (Fig1). Same with SST and Air T anomalies at North Pole. High Eq Pacific SST will bring more moisture in the atm, but what it drives it around comes from the Jet Stream behaviour.

About the recent floods in UK and western north Europe, has anybody picked up the attention over the fact that the amount of precipitation comes in form of water but not snow at such latitudes in December?

More energy should be dissipated in the surrounded atmosphere to keep water frozen in the form of snow, but it didn´t dissipate. Which takes me to my theory of Gradients of energy being reduced in the atmosphere (here and here), and this situation as one of the side effects also with with blocking patterns, Arctic circulation strengthening cross oceanic linkage and heat waves, altogether through water vapour as a carrier of energy.

Also, the latest developments in the North Pacific where a deep low pressure has started to move towards North America resemble to those found in February 2015 (without El Niño yet).

Meteorological Outlook Feb 2015 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)

The conditions over the North Pacific for the 6th of Feb 2015 are dominated by a strong Low Pressure. The interaction of the Jet Stream, pushing from West to East, extents the influence of this Low Pressure creating a corridor of low pressure moving across the North American continent. The current conditions resemble those found previously to the formation of the Storm  Juno beginning on the 23th Jan 2015.

3D Representation NH 06 Feb 2015 Wind speed and direction by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

P_Temp_TPW evolution defore Juno by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

I believe of that this is a team effort in which all patterns have to be considered with all type of approaches. Since there are plenty of scientists looking at climatic developments from the “standard” approach based on previous “settled” indexes and atmospheric configurations, I feel that my best input can come from exploring new paths and possible scenarios where few are looking into.

Something is clear for me, and it has a visual expression which does not need to be going over a 30 years period to be considered relevant.

Strong highs pressures have been seen in the Atlantic in the last 3 years which have played a key role in the circulation of the Jet Stream and the weather events associated with blocking patterns. One example is the precarious situation found In Spain due to a deficit in precipitation whilst surrounded by water bodies.

Soil humidity % Reserve / Maximum

Soil humidity% Reserve / 25mm

But the most relevant feature that I have identified in atmospheric circulation over the last years is the synchronic formation of low pressures near UK, North Pacific and Equatorial West Pacific. These represent an interconnectivity between Pacific and Atlantic Oceans never addressed previously and I believe that the Arctic atmospheric circulation is the link between these events.

2014 to 2015 700hPa T NH

19 Nov 2015 Atmospheric conditions NH by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

Conclusion

The unifying force which drives our planetary systems is the energy which is transferred between biotic and nonbiotic components.

The substance playing a major role in this process of transference is water in all its forms, liquid, solid and gaseous.

The transformation that our systems have suffered have disequilibrated the balance in the distribution of the energy contained by different parts in the ecosystems. Soil has lost capacity to retain water due to urbanization, deforestation, agricultural weathering, chemical alterations of its pH, or, simply this water has just been compartmentalized and redistributed outside ecosystem cycles. Similar lack of water management by natural ecosystems has driven species out of their habitats.

Losing the natural distribution of those processes involved in water retention and evapotranspiration around the globe has increased the effect from GHGs increasing the power for the atmosphere to contain water in vapour form. Still to be added in this function is the evaporation rates from the Oceans and how those have changed due to synergistic effects between wind, acidification and pollution due to detergents, plastics, fuel spills, etc.

Altogether, today we face the challenge of not only reducing the amount of GHGs allowing the thermal conductivity of our atmosphere to hold more water vapour carrying energy, but also, to recover the functionality in our soils and biota to retain in the ground this water. And that goes by avoiding compacting our soils to create surfaces for any type of industrial use and technological support as well as avoiding capturing the majority of the water in compartmented cycles apart from ecosystem functionality.

Author’s comments

At the end of the day, we all depend on not overlooking what it is considered out of the box in order to cover some ground before we are forced to deal with the new outcomes to arrive.

There is plenty of knowledge in books and knowledgeable persons far more than what I have. But, if my approach on things and the way how I digest the knowledge I have makes a difference for you, it is what really matters for me. Being able to contribute with adding something new and useful is my main goal.

These are just my thoughts. Please, feel free to share what you think on my assessments.

Some other unusual events happening challenging the dominant force given to Eq Pacific SST over the global atmospheric circulation:

  • This year is not the one with the lowest activity in the Atlantic basin. It was last year without El Niño conditions with 9 Tropical Cyclones meanwhile in 2015 we have seen 12 so far (source Met Office).

  • NASA. November 18, 2015 – Hurricane Kate (12L) in the North Atlantic Ocean

Tropical Depression 12 formed in the Caribbean Sea on November 8, 2015, and became Tropical Storm Kate the next day. After passing within 15 miles of Cat Island, Bahamas Kate tracked northward, staying away from land. On November 11 the storm reached hurricane strength to become the fourth hurricane of the Atlantic season but by November 12 the short-lived Kate had become an extra-tropical cycle and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued its last advisory on the system. Remnants of Kate brought wet weather to the United Kingdom on November 14.

Image Credit: Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, NASA GSFC. Date Acquired: 11/11/2015

According to The Weather Channel, Kate was the latest-in-season tropical cyclone to become a hurricane so far northwest in the Atlantic Ocean on record and the latest-forming Atlantic basin hurricane in 10 years.

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard NASA’s Terra satellite captured this true-color image of Hurricane Kate as it spun in the North Atlantic Ocean on November 11.

  • SEA research found that the average concentration of all Sargassum forms combined was 10 times greater in samples collected during autumn 2014 than those analyzed during a previous 2011-12 inundation event, and a whopping 300 times greater than that of any other autumn over the last two decades of SEA research,” the researchers stated.

“Therefore, SEA researchers concluded that the 2014-15 Caribbean inundation event was truly unprecedented.”

In the September 2015 issue of the journal Oceanography, Drs. Jeffrey Schell, Amy Siuda, and Deb Goodwin reported that the massive amounts of brown algae inundating Caribbean beaches are not coming from the Sargasso Sea as previously thought.

Instead, they said it supports the theory proposed by other scientists that it is coming from a southern portion of the Atlantic known as the North Equatorial Recirculation Region.

The group further concluded that a third form of Sargassum — S. natans VIII Parr — has been dominating the Western Tropical Atlantic, Eastern Caribbean, and Antilles though it previously rarely appeared in these areas.

The data for the study was collected between November 2014 and May 2015.

—- xxx —-

(This post is part of a more complex piece of independent research. I don´t have founding, political agenda or publishing revenues from visits. Any scientist working in disciplines related with the topics that I treat in my blog knows how to judge the contribution that my work could potentially add to the state of knowledge. Since I am in transition looking for a position in research, if you are one of those scientists, by just acknowledging any value you might see from my contribution, would not only make justice to my effort as independent researcher, but ultimately, it will help me to enhance my chances to find a position with resources to further develop my work.

I believe that the hypothesis that I have presented in previous posts in this blog (here,here and here) could help to understand present and possible future scenarios in atmospheric circulation. However, this is an assessment based on observation which needs to be validated throughout open discussion and data gathering. So please feel free to incorporate your thoughts and comments in a constructive manner.

If you feel like sharing this post I would appreciate to have a reference about the place or platform, by private or public message, in order for me to have the opportunity to join the debate and be aware of the repercussion which might generate d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

This work is protected under Intellectual Property laws licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.)

For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out):

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About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Citing This Site "Title", published online "Month"+"Year", retrieved on "Month""Day", "Year" from http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! DOIs can be generated on demand by request at email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com for those publications missing at the ResearchGate profile vinculated with this project. **Author´s profile: Born in 1974. Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my work previous to 2013 as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After 12 years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, in 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my own line of research. In the current competitive scenario, in order to demonstrate my capacities instead of just moving my cv waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I decided to invest my energy and time in opening my own line of research sharing it in this blog. In March 2017 the budget reserved for this project has ended and its weekly basis time frame discontinued until new forms of economic and/or institutional support are incorporated into the project. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this platform and at LinkedIn has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my achievements and that the Intellectual Property Rights generated with the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in similar lines of research. **Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome as well as any approach exploring professional opportunities to be part of.** In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2017, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2017. Filling in or Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/
This entry was posted in Aerobiology, Biological productivity, Energy Balance, Environmental Resilience, Extreme climatic events, Filling in, Finding out, Influence of Continentality, Inland Water Bodies and Water Cycle, Opinion, Polar vortex and Jet Stream, Solar activity, Water vapour and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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