Barking at the Wrong Tree in Climatic Debates (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)
-What Is That? A Tree. -But, What Is It For? … It Helps To Control The Climate. -What is Climate?
In the last 5 years have been carrying out a line of research trying to highlight the role of biotic systems in the thermodynamic behaviour of our planet so called climate.
Our Planet is made from the combination of all the organisms in a given area and the abiotic elements which affect them. An ecosystem is an open system because it can exchange energy or materials with other ecosystems. Earth is a closed system with respect to nutrients and chemicals, but open with respect to energy. There is an underestimated synergistic relationship between biogeochemical energy flows and those identified in weather patterns and atmospheric dynamics. For too many years it has been considered that the Earth is a garden populated by “elements” offering colourful pleasure and comfort. In fact, the biochemical processes undertaken by our ecosystems function as the most advanced piece of technology known by Humans, responsible for the quality of our air, waters and soils, as much as the sole and unique mechanism capable of interacting with the thermodynamic pressure imposed by the constant exposure of the planet to Sun’s radiation. Until we see the real function of biological processes as climate regulators we will not realise in how much trouble we are.
By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.CV english and español. Resume. Interdisciplinary Skills applied in the line of research presented.- Index for all analyses published. – Shares and Feedback at LinkedIn
What “a tree is for” has become a matter of peer review publication and debate …
In scientific discussions we can play smart and say that there are many unknowns and that
there is a lot to learn yet. But what happens then with what we do know? Yes, there are many gaps in our knowledge but, the impact from those gaps increases when in order to avoid pressure, the attitude adopted is to play safe, while smart, by making out strengths justified by a humble posture of limited knowledge. Many of our problems in scientific debates on Climate do not come from what we do not know, but from misusing what we do know and the implanted prioritization for pursuing an impact on the media above functionality. It has become more important (and safe) to be known than to be right (or wrong).
It has become a matter of scientific investment to restate the obvious, and in doing it so, time goes by. But for as long as the obvious does not generate revenues so it will never be seen as the solution.
How many times do we need to Re-state the obvious?
3 million years ago, the continents were at different configuration, the land cover was completely different, soil state and biota performance was beyond any comparison, the
composition of the land, water bodies and atmosphere did not contained any component reached only by anthropogenic processing as we can see in the ionization of the atmosphere and the chemical reactions which do not occur in natural habitats… there is no way that the future of a system will move backwards as the consequence of changing its composition and structure. One easy example comes by considering that never in the history of our planet, metal compounds have been at such concentration at its surface, same for many other compounds. The future is nothing we can compare with the past.
If the discussion is to address if trees are “food” or bad to address climatic changes,(yes food), trees are food and bad altogether, but most of all, they are the last line of defence evolved in biological terms against atmospheric thermodynamics. That we call climate.
So there should be no discussion about if they are good, unless we are discussing “good for business”. Should we discuss if the Sun is “food or bad”? It is both, food for plants and dangerous when our environment can not tame its power (uv, temp, …)
Are we not barking at the wrong Tree? Literally
Trees perform by their DNA so mismatch results come when wrong trees are in the wrong place.
Trees are a technological pieces which work in all three mediums, aquatic, soil, and gaseous. In mangroves, the savanna, wet forest and alpine regions trees link processes of soil weathering, water retention and purification, defend soil structure, reduce albedo and store energy in a fixed (and inert) state while interact with the currents of the atmosphere increasing drag, reduce temperature as well as capture GHGs such CO2 and water vapour. But also, reduce the GHGs in the atmosphere promoting rain by releasing particles of different nature (volatile/vaporous VOC and solid like pollen).
All of this performance is generated by an autonomous machine, self-sufficient, capable of fixing itself when damaged, with capacity for regeneration and propagation while also releasing recyclable waste into the food chain of the ecosystem where they work making a contribution to renewing resources.
The subject of Climate has been focused since the beginning as a physics problem linked with measurements of temperature.
I am biologist whom has studied environments where temperatures are developed based on the interaction between orography, water features, soil conditions and land cover and use. That is why for the same latitude we have deserts and tropical forests.
Masses of air can move carrying temperatures” with them as cold or warm waves, and yet, it has always been the local ecosystems which have tamed those oscillations. We have evolved in planet with mild oscillations, which has allowed genetic evolution to be very close. Otherwise the branches of evolution would be more distant.
Temperatures develop accordingly with the environment transferring and absorbing them. The real change has been environmental functionality, which has evolved into atmospheric instability and it is part of synergistic net of connections adjusting all phases of the new composition for our soils, waters and gases.
Biology is a form of engineering capable of reducing the entropy of any system. An enormous misunderstanding from the actual state of knowledge and yet, as contradictory as it sounds, always contemplated when looking for suitable planets to populate.
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION (biological use of Evaporation) and ATMOSPHERIC Circulation are bound to each other through the capacity of the atmosphere to absorb or release Water Vapour, which contains the latent heat activating weather systems.
I would also like to offer the following ones as part of the discussion and application of my thoughts on biotic synergies and climate:
October 2, 2014 Debating Climate, Environment and Planetary evolution. Define your position. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.27332.73603 https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/2014/10/02/climate-environment-and-planetary-evolution-defining-positions-by-diego-fdez-sevilla/
August 31, 2017 Climate. A System Becoming Dominated By Free Energy. The “Drama”, Character Driven VS Plot Driven (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18509.13289 https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/2017/08/31/climate-a-system-becoming-dominated-by-free-energy-the-drama-character-driven-vs-plot-driven-by-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd/
April 19, 2018 Climate, Weather and Energy. Using a Climatic Regime to explain Weather Events by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Research DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.27923.58406 https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/2018/04/19/using-a-climatic-regime-to-explain-weather-events-by-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd
What I bring into discussion from my line of research is the fact that the atmosphere can only generate precipitation and warming under thermodynamic restrictions made by its composition. If the thermal capacity of the atmosphere is low because it has no GHGs allowing water vapour to be in enough concentration (poles) it would not matter what plants release into that atmosphere.
It is the biotic environment which created the conditions suitable for our development and not the other way around. I am amazed by this type of discussion questioning the functionality of trees in the planetary evolution of our climates.
Weather, Climate, Energy, Environment and Man
The question driving the whole debate on Climatic Deviations from “a Normal”, or Climatic Drift, focus most of the methodologies on temperature.
However I have followed a different approach in my analyses looking at Gradients of Energy in all its forms. That is why in 2014 I offered my thoughts as a theory of practical applications.
Energy fuels the work done by warm masses of air displacing colder masses of air in their path. That increases mixing patterns generating anomalies in temperature.
Behind an increase in the amount of work carried out by masses of air there is an increase in the energy fuelling such dynamics. Energy can only be transferred, not created or destroyed. So more work means more energy in circulation. More energy in circulation can only be sustained by a substance carrying it. Either if we consider that the energy driving anomalies comes from the Sun or from the Oceans, the carrier has to be in the atmosphere in order for the energy to produce work. And the body loosing heat cools down.
E.g. A corridor of wind over the Arctic is triggered by a conversion of Temperature into work, convection and advection, which are the result of mixing masses of air. As I have published in previous analyses, such Trans-Arctic connection between Atlantic and Pacific Basins is part of a pattern increasing the mixing ratio between masses of air otherwise separated by thermal compartmentalization, like the Polar Jet Stream. An increase in the dispersion of energetic forms have different outcomes, one of which it would be a temporary reduction in the average temperature resultant for the mixing between Cold (Arctic) and warm (Mid-Latitude) masses of air as well as in altitude (SSW).
Subsequently, “temperature” is less reliable than looking at “work” seen even in the “mild” events.
In the framework presented throughout the line of research published in this blog (and researchgate) it has been considered “Climate” as being defined by the amount of energy free to do work. In other words, energy free to promote weather events. Accordingly, in my research I define Climate by the amount and state of energy in circulation, and Weather by the use of this energy.
Consequently, with the definition applied for Climate and Weather, my definition of Climate Drift is:
“the deviation from equilibrium of the conditions allowing the perpetuity of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in a micro and macro ecosystem. This situation can be due to changes in any component of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes can be either a change in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality or rates in the flows of energy pre-established OR/AND the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components/forces and energy sinks or sources in any part of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance.”
In my assessments I have defended that the increase in the energy pool at mid-latitudes would ultimately create an scenario with an overcharged atmosphere. That would reduce the contrasts with which to create and maintain stability in the structure required to condense energy in singular events, like hurricanes. Giving more relevance to the single contrast between Ocean/continental masses. However, the opening of the Arctic circulation through a weak Jet Stream would reduce the pressure in the containment absorbing the condensation of energy at mid-latitudes, expanding into a new volume.
Accordingly, hadley circulation gets affected (see also) generating new patterns of turbulence at the ITCZ as well as it gets influenced Arctic mixing zones with lower latitudes.
In this scenario TCs are generated under an increase in the mixing ratio of an unstable atmospheric circulation dominated by kinetic energy transferred by water vapour thanks to GHGs, and immersed in an overcharged atmosphere with no place where to diffuse its energy, becoming resilient as long as they stay over the ocean. So they endure like a piece of an ice rock in cold water.
About Sea Surface Temperatures, my assessments take SST as subsequent conditions driven by wind shear. So the interaction between masses of air in circulation allows or inhibits SST developments. Once the scenario is built on SST this becomes a “battle field” conditioning the subsequent interaction between the following masses of air and the characteristics of the “grounds” where the game will be played (sort of speak). Like the effect of the ice conditions in an ice hockey match.
El Niño is an event which happens in a very small portion of the Earth, it is related to the temperature of a very thin layer of the Ocean in depth, a small percentage of the area occupied by the whole Oceanic masses, and even smaller when it is integrated in the multidimensional space combining Ocean and atmosphere.
It is kind of intriguing to think why it has been so easy to conclude that such small portion of the entire system is driving it as a whole. It is like considering that the flowering of plants drives the seasons. Similarly it could be said about using SST at the Arctic to justify altogether; the lack of ice, warmer temperatures at tropospheric level and even at stratospheric level. There is not enough energy in the SST of such small area as it is the Arctic to justify all those convective dynamics.
(March 22, 2016 Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1968.5521).
Statistical Significance. The Scary Side of Being Mild (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.21934.61767
It can not surprise me enough the fact that there is a scientific agreement followed by theories such the Arctic Amplification and Stephan Boltzmann black body radiation, which focus on single locations as sources of energy triggering warming events. Arctic amplification focus the attention in the Arctic, and the absence of ice decreasing albedo, to justify the location for the source of energy warming the atmosphere in the Sea Surface Waters. And it does it even considering the absence of Solar radiation, which in itself discards any process of albedo absorbing and re-emitting energy. Accordingly with their theory, Arctic amplification suggests that Arctic circulation affects circulation at mid-latitudes, however, all the dynamics we see point in the opposite direction. Mid latitudinal forcing pushes against Arctic restrictions through the Jet Stream, displacing cold masses of air in their path, using water vapour as the carrier of the energy feeding convective motions.
Stephan Boltzmann relation describing radiative gradients of temperature rely entirely on an idealized body homogeneous in composition and even pressure. Such statement neglects the nature of the processes involved in the transference of energy found in the atmosphere where there are simultaneously three states of matter, gaseous, liquid and solid, numerous compounds different in molecular composition and behaviour, as well as an active thermodynamic system made of heterogeneous cells containing independent microsystems of entropy, interacting in a macro system out from equilibrium. (more here). So opposite from a black body, the distribution of radiation and heat across an heterogeneous system delivers an uneven distribution marked by the nature of the connections built between micro and macro systems, ecosystems and abiotic systems, gaseous, liquid, solid and multi-estate systems. It becomes evident that there is not a distribution of temperatures following a gradient defined by Stephan-Boltzmann estimations because the transference of energy is heterogeneous due to the heterogeneous composition and disposition of the matter states in the planetary system. By understanding those limitations we can identify the expansion of energetic pulses throughout the atmosphere by avoiding focusing the attention over the temperatures and instead, focusing the attention into identifying the “work” expressed by the dynamics in motion, either as forms of precipitation, trans-latitudinal transportation of matter (Water Vapour), transference of radiation (SSW), discharges of electricity and displacements of cold and heat waves.
In my research I have been very persistent trying to highlight how much relevance it is given to a small area in size and depth driving global circulation as it is the SST at the Eq Pacific while an area of the same size and even more depth could be identified in the Amazon or by the change suffered in Land cover by agriculture at global scale.
We have to consider that SST are measured in the 5 or less m of the Ocean meanwhile Forests can occupy more than 15 meters in depth. And both are sources of the latent heat carried out in the atmosphere which fuels convective dynamics dominating intrusions over the Arctic.
Analyses which I published in my line of research some time ago studying the impact from changes in Land cover over atmospheric dynamics:
- April 23, 2015 Matching Features Between Land Surface and Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20035.30247. https://wp.me/p403AM-xK
- June 10, 2016 The Butterfly Effect on Arctic Circulation. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) https://wp.me/p403AM-12H
The analyses performed in my line of research describe a Climatic Drift, from pre-established atmospheric conditions strongly compartmentalised in Altitude and Latitude, towards a Climatic Regime characterised by an instability originated by patterns of Trans-latitudinal and Vertical mixing. An increase in atmospheric motion inducing sudden and extreme changes in atmospheric conditions generating weather events with abnormal properties for a particular location, throughout latitudes, longitudes and altitudes.
Einstein and his developments were mainly applied in physics due to the use that it was made of his work with the aim to manipulate energy in times of conflict, or to understand space. The equation is simple E=mc2. The language of physics has dominated the discussion over physical developments since then and it has been established as the logical translation of climatic developments. However, in the current times, the role of scientific understanding demands to move beyond the barriers of language, either between semantic cultural languages and between disciplines.
Being myself a Biologist involved in Atmospheric dynamics applying physics to explain such a complex subject as it is climatic evolution might seem like the tale of the child claiming that the Emperor has no clothes.
And yet, it seems to me evident that a thermodynamic system as it is our planet, can not scape from the most basic and powerful understanding of our contemporary scientific evolution. If E=MC2, and the anthropogenic activity is increasing the transformation of M into Energy in the system (from burning Mass from fossils and vegetable components, as well as by liberating other forms of energy such as gravimetric in Dams, Solar, transformation of raw materials, etc,) such transformation rate will move the balance in the thermodynamic behaviour of the whole system, and the rate of such deviation from equilibrium will be related with the speed at which the transformation rate between E/M is performed: M>(c)2
The main conclusion from my 4 years of researching synergistic interactions between all transformations seen over the Liquid, Gaseous and solid phases of our global Environment indicates that anthropogenic activity is forcing our environment into A System Becoming Dominated By Free Energy. (Registered at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18509.13289)
The biotic component of our environmental system is the only one capable of interacting against thermodynamic entropy, against instability. And for as long as Human activity can not replicate such mechanisms in equilibrium with the resources consumed, it might be time to think about domesticating Human Activities instead of following the obsession for Domesticating Natural Behaviour and Geoengineer our Weather.
An increase in the amount of energy being in “free” state means that kinetic processes will increasingly dominate thermodynamic processes, inducing a transition in our Seasonal and Climatic regimes from being driven by Orbital Positioning to be driven by more erratic Kinetic processes.
Land Use Change through time.
Land use change through time.
Examples of processes releasing ENERGY FROM ANTHROPOGENIC ACTIVITIES
Atmospheric Oxygen Levels
Atmospheric Oxygen Levels are Decreasing Oxygen levels are decreasing globally due to fossil-fuel burning. The changes are too small to have an impact on human health, but are of interest to the study of climate change and carbon dioxide. These plots show the atmospheric O2 concentration relative to the level around 1985. The observed downward trend amounts to 19 ‘per meg’ per year. This corresponds to losing 19 O2 molecules out of every 1 million O2 molecules in the atmosphere each year.
Scripps O2 Global Oxygen Measurements The Scripps O2 Program measures changes in atmospheric oxygen levels from air samples collected at stations around the world. This sampling network provides a global and hemispheric perspective on oxygen variability. The Scripps O2 Program is based at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at La Jolla, California and is under the direction of Professor Ralph Keeling.
Imagery and Methodology
Nowadays, there are many divisions between disciplines due to the isolated nature of their specific language and methodologies. I might not use the right vocabulary for all the fields which I discuss, or the right data or the right reasoning. But when nobody is able to offer a consensus over what is going on, I wonder, what is right this days?.
After leaving months, even years of time to expose my conclusions for public discussion and review, once those have no faced any criticism or arguments refuting their value, I create a pdf file and a DOI publishing them at my profile in Researchgate. In order to maintain their genuineness and legitimate innovative nature, I keep its original state so those can be compared with any copy made by any third party at any time. For your own references and review over its originality over time with respect to other publications via scientific papers and/or news reports, you can compare the publications at the blog and researchgate with the records archived:
- at the web.archive.org site http://web.archive.org/web/*/diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com
- ResearchGate profile https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Diego_Fdez-Sevilla
- LinkedIn Public shares and re-shares testing validation over time https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/diego-fdez-sevilla-phds-research-reach/
- Full Index of Analyses and Timeline https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com
- AGU: https://www.linkedin.com/groups/2196290/2196290-5986214897078272003
- NOAA: https://www.linkedin.com/groups/156873/156873-5986214921963077634
2019 Research FOLLOW-UP
In research what it is relevant it is not always what it is New, but what it doesn´t get old. One stage of research comes when looking into offering something New; New data, New interpretations, New methods, making “the News”, being the First … And then, once the “New” has been offered, it is all about confirmation, re-evaluation, validation, review and application. In my line of research, at one stage I have offered New interpretations on climatic developments adopting New points of view addressing New synergistic interactions delivering New Conclusions and Implications in weather patterns, atmospheric circulation and biotic performance. In a following stage I have re-shared all those previous “New assessments” to be contrasted against real time developments been unfolded in the next years. In 2014 I was told by a lead scientist in climatic developments Prof. Jennifer Francis: “The topic you’ve written about is extremely complicated and many of your statements have not yet been verified by peer-reviewed research.” I was challenged for a deeper understanding of the state of the research, knowledge of atmospheric dynamics and analyses supporting my statements.
Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Reply to Prof. Jennifer Francis (February 2015) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1975.7602/1
After 200+ analyses 2014-18, have I done enough? diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com
This year 2018/19 the progression of the climatic dynamics seen show to support the conclusions discussed throughout all the analyses performed in the line of research presented in this blog:
- The ENSO is not a driver of convective forcing over the NH,
- Convective forcing from Mid-latitudinal towards the Arctic circulation has wear off the gradients of temperature generating a strong Polar Jet Stream.
- Arctic warming occurs through atmospheric intrusions from Mid Latitudes,
- The collapse of the Polar Jet Stream has opened Arctic circulation to Mid-Latitudinal circulation intrusions allowing Trans-Arctic circulation between Pacific and Atlantic Basins.
- The global Temperature measured is the resultant of mixing patterns in the atmosphere,
- Therefore an increase in mixing dynamics creates a pause in temperature raise,
- An increase in mixing dynamics show an increase in convective forcing,
- Convective forcing is the work resultant from an increase in atmospheric energy being incorporated in free state,
- The incorporation and spread of energy in free state into the atmosphere is carried and released by water vapour
- An increase of water vapour in atmospheric circulation requires an increase in the thermal capacity of the atmosphere
- The process of enhancing the thermal capacity of the atmosphere comes by increasing the concentration of GHGs, conc of aerosols and land surface albedo.
- Several processes carried out by human activity are linked with the previous assessment: human activity reduces the capacity of the biotic environment to fix energy from free state into inert state by reducing biochemical processing and storage (CxHxOx photosynthesis and biomass) and increases atmospheric concentrations of GHGs by releasing CO2 and H2O into the atmosphere. Also, land use and cover transformations increase albedo, industrial activities increase aerosols and the compartmentalization of water affects water cycles.
- In a thermodynamic system the energetic pool is the sum of the amount of energy in free state capable of doing work, and the energy fixed in an inert form as part of mass. The amount of energy in free state is proportional to the amount of energy fixed in inert form as mass (E=mc2). The release of energy from its inert form increases the amount of energy in free state to do work. Energy is not created, neither destroyed. The transformation of the three phases of the environment forced by human activities, gaseous (atmosphere), liquid (water cycle) and solid (land use and cover), increases the amount of energy in free state capable of promoting all forms of work; convective forcing, strong winds, solid and liquid precipitation, lightning, dust storms, heat waves, cold displacements, and ultimately, and increase in atmospheric mixing in altitude and across latitudes.
Winter 2018/2019 _________________________________
Previous publication suggested to be contrasted with current develoments:
Arctic Warming as a Result of Convective Forcing by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34551.73125 (registered in pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34551.73125)
Excerpt from the cited publication (see in full following the link at the title):
I could write something about the implications of current developments over the global assessment behind the dynamics we see unfolding this days (Winter 2018, and also winter 2019) over the NH and yet, I would look at the transition from summer 2017 and the present, and I would offer the same conclusions as the ones I published in 2014/15/16/17.
Nothing has changed in the dynamics that we see in the current situation. If anything can be taken from current developments is that those dynamics over the mixing fluctuations driven by kinetic forcing are becoming more evident over time.
It is not so relevant what makes Mid latitudes colder in Winter if it comes as an expression of reducing Solar radiation over the NH due to tilt variations. What it becomes relevant is the fact that colder conditions in the NH are being driven in location and extent by convective forcing dominating Arctic circulation.
The changes we might face in Atmospheric Composition and Land Cover and Use, will always being followed by alterations in Thermodynamical behaviour towards increasing entropy. The only mechanisms playing resilience against those changes, towards reducing entropy, are the ones driven by Biological presence and processes. In one hand by reducing albedo, absorbing CO2, enhancing soil properties and fixing energy in an inert form. In other hand, by its “functionally adapted” distribution around the world, by the “morphological configuration” as individuals and as whole ecosystems, by the interactive characteristic metabolisms aimed to control specific conditions in their surroundings and by the less understood contribution from Biological processes in atmospheric developments (here and here). The capacity of transformation that the human specie, and its activities, has to change the composition of the Atmosphere and the Oceans, the structure of the Land Cover, and the self evolved functionality of Biological systems compromise the “stability” of the whole planetary system by interfering with the performance of those mechanisms of resilience which are the result of years of evolution. “
See full line of research with an index for all 200+ analyses published in chronological order since 2013 at the main page diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com
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What makes a tree a tree?
Food for Thought
The material which I present throughout the line of research published in my blog is not the result of a peer review process. More or less, those publications are similar to the letters that Darwin sent to London from the ship the Beagle through his voyage.
And yet, instead of avoiding peer review, I have challenged it, I have pursued it and encouraged it by offering a whole line of research for publicly scrutiny, eliminating restrictions by journal discipline or individual peer preferences, allowing access to it from all fields of knowledge.
In February 21, 2014 I wrote my first assessment over climatic alterations pointing out the need to focus the attention over the enhanced capacity of the atmosphere to contain water vapour and the repercussion over energetic dynamics through the atmosphere.
In this publication in my blog I offered in a nutshell what it was my assessment about the global state of the atmospheric dynamics, the climatic implications for the environment and the restrictions behind modelling. At the time it might seem like clatter in the echo chamber of things. Even in Dec 2014 Prof. Jennifer Francis replied to me claiming that:
“many of your statements have not yet been verified by peer-reviewed research.
But furthermore, she acknowledged her own distant position and lack of understanding over my line of research by claiming that:
“To get funding or a job in this field, however, will require a deeper understanding of the state of the research, knowledge of atmospheric dynamics (not just suggestive examples and anecdotal evidence), and statements supported by published (or your own) analysis.”
(email exchange in full here)
Therefore, throughout the next three years I looked at all of my arguments embedded in those little phrases, looking for methods and sustainable analysis capable of building a message strong enough to make them worth of attention. I have sliced each argument in individual assessments in order to address their significant meaning. Now that the project has gone through all those aspects offering assessments for each one separately and as a whole, I believe that these two little pieces of writing will recover the original meaning with which they were intended.
|Climate variability and energy balance. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) At ResearchGate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.33706.11203||November 27, 2013|
|February 21, 2014||Resilience in our models (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.27974.98884|
On October 21, 2014 I published my theory describing the mechanisms involved and some of the repercussions derived:
|October 21, 2014||(Updated 22/Dec/14) New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4859.3440“Based on my theory, Greenhouse gases store energy which leads to an increase in global temperature. This increase in T, altogether with synergistic effects of aerosols, allows more water vapor to be contained in the atmosphere, which consequently adds more energy into the atmosphere in form of latent heat and kinetic energy.”|
All following publications describe real time developments showing links with my ideas.
October 21, 2014 New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4859.3440
November 14, 2014 Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2500.0488
February 10, 2015 Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1975.7602/1
Increases in atmospheric CO2 have being claimed to store energy in the form of heat raising the temperature of the atmosphere. Accordingly, such development would induce the atmosphere to expand allowing more water vapour to be contained. CO2 storing heat and water vapour carrying latent heat and molecular mass add altogether energy in different forms which, in turn, fuel adiabatic processes, weather events and atmospheric circulation.
When considering global circulation, there are patterns of circulation which are built upon strong differential gradients of energy. Warm humid air from tropical or sub-polar regions getting in contact with cold dry air from Polar regions, under the Coriolis effect triggered by the rotation of the Earth, create a current in form of a Jet around the Pole (Lat. 60N) moving from West to East in the North Hemisphere, being called The Polar Jet Stream.
In the first instance, it could be assumed that increasing heat and water vapour contained between the Equator and sub-polar regions would increase the differential gradient of energy between sub-polar and polar atmospheric circulation, increasing the strength of the Jet Stream. That would keep concentrated and isolated cold masses of air from sub-polar circulation. Accordingly, the difference between atmospheric temperature in the Pole and in the Equator would be high and increase with more GHGs.
However, following the second law of thermodynamics, the close contact and persistence of such area of contact would induce in time, an increase in the percentage of air getting exchanged from both atmospheric areas. That scenario would develop a decrease in the difference between Polar and Equatorial temperatures. Situation which can be already observed in the records available.
Here I hypothesise that it can be considered that the volume of the atmospheric system accommodating increasing conc. of GHGs and water vapour has expanded from sub-polar regions into Polar Circulation. Consequently, following the second law of thermodynamics, an added space for those gasses to expand would allow for the atmosphere containing GHGs and water vapour to retain more heat with no increase in atmospheric temperature. Which it could explain why under increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 there has been a so called “pause” in global warming.
If my intuition is right, based on what I shared in the other post giving “A New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation.“, it will become more frequent to see polar masses of air getting introduced in lower latitudes as part of having a low differential gradient of energy between the Jet Stream and cyclonic (L and H) events, allowing frequent transition of masses of air getting from both sides of the Jet Stream.
October 21, 2015 Discussing Climatic Teleconnections. Follow Up On My Previous Research (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2962.7605
March 10, 2016 Tangled in Words. Atmospheric Dynamics, Stefan Boltzmann Calculations and Energy Balance (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.28443.57120
November 17, 2016 Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.24688.35848
January 20, 2017 Climate and Indexes. A dashboard of Confusion. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25016.96007
April 19, 2018 Climate, Weather and Energy. Using a Climatic Regime to explain Weather Events by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Research DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.27923.58406
Throughout + 200 publications
|March 23, 2017||Final Review in Progress. March 2017. From ENSO to Scientific Thinking by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.33915.82726|
For More related posts in this topic see timeline page to consult the index with all previous assessments published by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. (author’s email: firstname.lastname@example.org)
After finishing my Masters in Biology Environmental Science in 2001, I have performed research at PhD level and worked inside and outside academia at institutions linked with environmental research and management. In 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new job’s position.
In such competitive scenario, instead of just moving my cv between desks waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I used it as an advantageous standing point to start and develop independent research in a blog in which I could open my own line of research completely free of external pressures or interferences.
Through the whole project I have increasingly being focused on publishing pieces of original research applying my own perspective aiming to address relevant environmental questions.
The level of uncertainty which I have accomplished in my assessments has reached enough accuracy to replicate real time developments to the point of compete with models sustained by corporate and administrative budgets.
On Feb 2017, it has reached an stage in which its framework has been defined and it has been applied in follow-ups (in the timeline section at the bottom use ctrl+F: “follow-up”) delivering the subsequent conclusions. Therefore, the work which I present in my blog has become a chapter in my career, and I should focus now my attention on my new steps towards professional and personal growth.
The economic support sustaining the three years of research presented in this blog has been private based on my own capacity to generate it. Once the main conclusions of the project have demonstrated their value, in the absence of economic support, I can only look into other activities aside offering detailed assessments in this blog in order to keep moving while hoping that my published work could call the interest for its continuity from external sources of financial support.
Therefore, since Feb 2017, the generation of assessments over real-time developments discontinues its weekly bases due to the absence of financial support.
You have to be aware of that while one single line of writing containing an original idea can be read in seconds, reaching such idea might take weeks, months or years of analyses and reasoning. Such process is time consuming and require to achieve a state of mind where the focus of attention is prioritised over the subject under study above other matters. This state of mind can only be achieved and maintained when there is no need to address solving the challenge of being under the pressure of having to find access to all kind of material resources while also searching for ways to support an autonomous life style.
If you are interested in the continuity of this project, please share your interest publicly so investors and institutions might recognise its value and offer the support required to make this research an activity sustainable in a full time schedule.
Some people might think that being independent is related with being free from economical agendas. Since we all rely on economic support to sustain our activities, every activity require economic support. Being “independent” is a mindset which only should reflect an attitude based on a self-evolved criteria built upon a critical mind. It should not be identified with isolation but instead with the reputation of the source offering an opinion.
I am sorry I can not be involved in discussions and assessments in a full time-frame since I do not have the required economic support.
I only hope that with my previous activity I have been able to build a reputation over my capacity to analyse situations, make assessments, build communication channels and interact with others. And I hope that it will help me to find a team interested in sharing such attitude helping to support the reputation of institution/s involved.
Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD In transition
I am looking for new opportunities and new challenges, to join a team. At the same time that I look for job openings to incorporate my resume, I would encourage any one finding interesting any of the skills which I apply throughout my research, as well as communicator, to evaluate my profile as a candidate for your projects. email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com
You can look at the whole project (more than 190 posts between Oct 2013 to Feb 2017) published at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com and also you will find some of those publications in my profile at ResearchGate and at the Citations page.
I am living in Spain free to relocate geographically worldwide.
About this Project:
My definition of Climate Drift is: the deviation from equilibrium of the conditions allowing the perpetuity of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in a micro and macro ecosystem. This situation can be due to changes in any component of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes can be either a change in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality or rates in the flows of energy pre-established OR/AND the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components/forces and energy sinks or sources in any part of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance.
This project published in a blog format, offers pieces of original research in environmental science, and a space for discussion, based on considering as a major factor limiting our understandings the lack of attention given to the gaps of knowledge existent. The concepts, measurements and parameters applied to address environmental synergistic interactions are too narrow and isolated from each other to understand their full meaning. Such circumstance induce to reach dogmatic patterns of thought to make the quickest conclusions in the absence of a better and clear idea describing what is happening.
In this Project I aim to address those limitations using observational analyses offering assessments over real time events considering those as proxies of significant value to make interpretations over global synergistic relationships.
Feedback is always welcome here and at my email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com
Since 2002 I have performed research over the Atmospheric Dynamics interacting with the biota in the field of Aerobiology. In Oct 2013 I focused my attention over climatic dynamics and in Oct 2014 I published what I believe to be a valid theory explaining current developments in atmospheric dynamics. I shared my thoughts at my blog and several groups in LinkedIn (like the AGU, NASA and NOA groups) where the immense response offered has been silence.
In Feb 2015 I published a revision and since then a constant follow-up throughout more than 200 assessments. Still today, March 2018, the majority of the response is silence despite the amount of visits identified by all the SEO tools and the interactions and shares accounted. See the related stats at the Timeline page.
So I thank your open feedback and share.
Nowadays, there are many divisions between disciplines due to the isolated nature of their specific language and methodologies. I might not use the right vocabulary for all the fields which I discuss, or the right data or the right reasoning. But when nobody is able to offer a consensus over what it is going on, I wonder, what is right this days?.
Esta obra está bajo una licencia de Creative Commons Reconocimiento-NoComercial 4.0 Internacional.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.