Clouds and SST, Boltzmann, Enso and Climate. (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)
CV english and español. Resume. Interdisciplinary Skills applied in the line of research presented.- Index for all analyses published. – Shares and Feedback at LinkedIn. DOIs for those publications mentioned can be found at the Framework and Timeline Page.
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In response to:
Diego: in your “I am just saying that: [..]” you left out a lot of stuff. For example, no mention of oceans or clouds.
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From a recent exchange of comments at Why I don’t ‘believe’ in ‘science’ March 26, 2019 by Judith Curry.
(Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) For as long as anyone involved on science, skeptics, supporters, … do not know what is the meaning of outliers in their data, they become believers of their own method, their own data and their own interpretations over the results obtained. I know that because in 2003 I did a PhD on it.
Everybody gets suspicious when someone introduces links to their own publications but I can not take all the space here to repeat what I think in the subject so I will risk taking the apathy from doing it and share some links to my thoughts in my publications.
Just to make a brief summary I would like to share the following:
In the line of research that since 2013 I have presented on environmental synergies, I have tried to offer enough data in all shapes and forms to support a point of view. However, I realised that the major limitation to find validation from different postures does not come from lack of agreement between different methods or data sets, but from the interpretation of the observer for the results discussed and the lack of awareness over the role played by the “standardization of acceptance for the margins of error”. That was something which played a fundamental part in my thesis back in 2003. The aim was to assess the aerodynamic behaviour of pollen grains by standardizing their settling speeds. But behind addressing the question of delivering values to represent one single parameter (settling speeds) there was a bigger challenge found in a world of limitations since the values obtained to describe a behaviour are the interaction between numerous variables, and the representativeness of those are defined by the level of uncertainty incorporated with the instruments supplying measurements. Then there is the limitation of our algorithms representing the norms under which our variables interact in our mathematically created world.
Back in2013 I had conversation where someone told me that the climate change argument was an invention based on manipulation. When I tried to offer any argument I was told that my claims were based on publications made with hidden agendas. And I could not say that was wrong because I do not know the agendas for those behind their papers, therefore, I decided to look into the subject on my own, with my own methodology, my savings, and my skills, leaving aside any preconceptions based on claims by others that I could not provide with my own analyses. I would like to offer you all the work that I have done since then for you to judge if there is any valuable content. It might not be pretty, it might not be appealing but I can ensure that it is raw and painfully honest.
If anyone is wondering what is that I am “selling” in my line of research, based on my analyses I am just saying that:
The global Temperature measured is the resultant of mixing patterns in the atmosphere, Therefore an increase in mixing dynamics creates a pause in temperature raise, An increase in mixing dynamics show an increase in convective forcing, Convective forcing is the work resultant from an increase in atmospheric energy being incorporated in free state, The incorporation and spread of energy in free state into the atmosphere is carried and released by water vapour, An increase of water vapour in atmospheric circulation requires an increase in the thermal capacity of the atmosphere, The process of enhancing the thermal capacity of the atmosphere comes by increasing the concentration of GHGs, conc of aerosols and land surface albedo. Anthropogenic activities are linked with all the processes mentioned above by transforming the composition and structure of all the phases of the environment involved: the gaseous, solid and liquid. And furthermore, inhibiting the capacity of the biotic system to capture and retain energy from free state into inert state.
If I am wrong in my conclusions it is entirely the result of my own limitations. And if I am right soon enough you will see somebody claiming their credit in publications without my name. This is all I have for you; to dismiss, criticise, ignore, or whatever you like. Other people from universities is reading it an no one has challenged my publications so I guess you should also be aware of its existence.
https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com
About The Method:
- – “The Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything” is … 42 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2400.2324 May 15, 2014 (https://wp.me/p403AM-9M)
- – Debating Climate, Environment and Planetary evolution. Define your position. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.27332.73603 October 2, 2014 (https://wp.me/p403AM-iy)
- – The scope of Environmental Science and scientific thought. From Thought-driven to Data-driven, from Critical Thinking to Data Management. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2007.0161 June 26, 2015 (https://wp.me/p403AM-BD)
- – February 17, 2017 State of Knowledge. Between The Walls Of Silence There Is A Silhouette With The Shape Of An Interrogation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) (https://wp.me/p403AM-1m6)
- – March 10, 2017 Modelling the “Model” and the Observer (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.17558.04169 (https://wp.me/p403AM-1qL)
- – Feb 2018. Climate Drifts and The Scientific Method of Waiting 30 Years. Follow up on previous assessments by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18823.09122 (https://wp.me/p403AM-1Ks)
The Research:
- – December 17, 2016 Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20129.81760 (https://wp.me/p403AM-1jd)
- – March 3, 2019 A pattern of change in the atmosphere beyond considering global warming or cooling. That is, global mixing. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Registered DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.32693.73445 (https://wp.me/p403AM-2gH)
————– Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD’s Reply to @Mike Jonas ———————-
I suppose that my line of research can be defined as unorthodox.
However, where I say: “based on my analyses I am just saying that” actually it means that between 2013 and 2018, after more than 200 analyses published at weekly basis, looking into the different aspect of the environment and the synergistic interactions between those, my conclusions are what I wrote above.
That includes the application of Stefan-Boltzmann radiation theories, the connections between Solar activity, Biological productivity, Polar vortex, Polar Jet Stream, Environmental Resilience, Inland Water Bodies and Water Cycle, Energy Balance and the Influence of Continentality on Extreme Climatic Events.
Based on my criteria (always open for corrections) I have developed a theory about what I believe it has induced an increase in atmospheric water vapour content and, further I discuss its implications in atmospheric circulation, Jet Stream behaviour and weather system’s patterns.
– New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) October 21, 2014 Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4859.3440
Excerpt from this publication About clouds: “Solar activity could increase the temperature of the masses getting radiated (water or land). It could increase evaporation from oceans but water vapor needs more factors to be sustained in atmospheric circulation for longer periods of time and reach further in latitudes. Thermodynamic laws dictate the amount of water which can be contained in the atmosphere. More evaporation in a clean sky (low aerosol and low in green house gasses content) could induce more rain in tropospheric circulation but water vapour would not stand for long in the atmosphere as the energy within it would dissipate. However, if the amount of greenhouse gasses increases, the energy from the cyclonic event would not feel so greatly the differential gradient in energy with the surrounding so it would not dissipate its energy so easily.”
see also google:
“site:https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/+clouds”
Also the previous discussion is extended in the following publication:
November 14, 2014 Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2500.0488
Having published my Theoretical Approach in 2014, I sent an email to different scientists and published my theory at LinkedIn at the AGU and NOAA groups where, despite numerous visits, nobody make a single comment (no criticism neither support). And from the emails that I sent, only Jennifer Francis replied to me in Dec 2014.
She replied:
“Diego, The topic you’ve written about is extremely complicated and many of your statements have not yet been verified by peer-reviewed research. It is an exciting and active new direction in research, though, so I encourage you to pursue it. To get funding or a job in this field, however, will require a deeper understanding of the state of the research, knowledge of atmospheric dynamics (not just suggestive examples and anecdotal evidence), and statements supported by published (or your own) analysis.” (https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/email-exchange-diego-fdez-sevilla-research-jennifer-francis1.png)
The fact that my interpretation of the situation was recognised as “your statements have not yet been verified by peer-reviewed research” was something I thought it would be reworded as an acknowledgement. But then I was dismissed with understating my “knowledge over the state of the research and atmospheric dynamics” and calling my approach “suggestive examples and anecdotal evidence”. Something curious when I saw her intention of offering my views in her publications later on, and other scientists mimicking my work in their publications through the following years.
So I took the challenge offered by Jennifer extending the range of “my own analysis”, and based on that challenge I wrote a review the following Spring 2015 including the developments of the Winter after such communication:
Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Reply to Prof. Jennifer Francis (February 2015) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1975.7602/1
Since then, you can find 150+ analyses at the index section of the Timeline and framework page (diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com), and also, in order to show my commitment with my own words through time, pdfs of those at researchgate with DOIs.
Following I will show some excerpts from my analyses discussing Clouds and Oceans:
Excerpt from the publication:
April 19, 2018 Climate, Weather and Energy. Using a Climatic Regime to explain Weather Events by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD
DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.27923.58406
It has been suggested that “More particles in the atmosphere mean more reflective clouds and a cooler climate.”
That is a too simplistic way of looking at it. Different types of airborne particles generate also different types of interaction with the atm. water vapour and other gaseous elements and compounds. There is aerodynamic behaviour, chemical behaviour and thermodynamic behaviour. It has been addressed in sci publications that too many particles of too small size can inhibit rain by retaining water vapour in droplets too small to fall. Which in my research means that the thermal energy contained can be moved around in longer distances. Also, an increase in atm temp allows more water vapour to be contained in the atm so more clouds (and albedo) would be formed by more aerosols “only” if dew point is reached on those particles, which is more difficult to achieve as the temp increases. But, when you reach dew point over an increased conc of aerosols, within a thermically enhanced atmosphere charged of water vapour, all that energy will express itself in different types of forms, with heavy forms of precipitation (snow or pouring rain) and wind events. Like what we have just now over the Iberian peninsula and rain at the Arctic.
My assessments take SST as subsequent conditions driven by wind shear. So the interaction between masses of air in circulation allow or inhibit SST developments. Once the scenario is built on SST this becomes a “battle field” conditioning the subsequent interaction between the following masses of air and the characteristics of the “ground” where the game will be played (sort of speak). Like the effect of the ice conditions in an ice hockey match.
As Part of the analisis Follow-up on previous assessments 17Sept 2018. About resilient Florence, super typhoon Mangkhut at West Pacific and Atlantic northward Tropical storm Helene. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD
This year (written in April 2018) we have seen the Arctic absorbing strong perturbations from mid-latitudinal circulation. And I believe that the following developments that we have seen through January at the West coast of EEUU and the following over Europe, as well as the recent atmospheric dynamics over India, are all related with the state of the circulation across the Arctic, and that the mixing zone between Arctic and midlatitudinal masses over the oceanic basins affects the developments at the Equator.
Excerpt from the publication:
Seasonal Outlook. June 2017 (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Posted on June 23, 2017 DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25428.91528
As I have said in previous assessments, I believe that the Arctic is not amplifying the effect of increasing heat retention in the atmosphere, it will be the Equator the area which will develop such reaction.
However, the shape and form for such energetic dynamics can be as surprising as reducing the number of hurricanes (due to the difficulty to condensate energy in a small location) whilst finding more energetic developments at higher latitudes. And if a hurricane forms, it might become unpredictable due to the rapidly changing nature of the environmental characteristics of the atmosphere.
I hope I have added some clarification to my posture.
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Extended Review of Concepts Applied in the Answer from Previous Assessments
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Clouds
Excerpt from the publication:
April 19, 2018 Climate, Weather and Energy. Using a Climatic Regime to explain Weather Events by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Research DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.27923.58406
Some people have looked at some trials undertaken by NASA to claim that “Rain clouds can be generated mechanically through engine developed by NASA”
(Q&A by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Things are more complicated than that. Water vapour is formed in natural environments in an endothermic process, consumes energy and decreases temp absorbing heat. This one, is exothermic, releases energy and increases the temperature in the surrounding environment, plus increases the chances to release ionized compounds (Hx, Ox, OH, NOx) and move other compounds dissolved from the surrounding atmosphere. That process will go all the way up to the stratosphere. There are many things that separate this process from the common rain and the common evaporation process delivering water vapour. There are other factors which are involved in assessing the complete impact from the whole cycle involved in this technology. The production of the Hydrogen consumed comes from fossil compounds CHx which comes with a print in energy consumption, emissions and infrastructures to produce, storage, handling, transport, and overall maintain at low temperatures as liquid. Similar for Liquid Oxygen. As a form of propulsion it might be the “best” available. As a form of making rain, is like planting solar panels to repopulate a forest, or using chemotherapy to remove body hair. And remember, energy is not destroyed or created, it comes from, it goes into?…
If you wonder about magnitudes enough to force a Climatic drift, we have to remember that the size of something is not proportional to the energy required to alter its position or behaviour, that is what we know from catalysts or the simple use of a switch.
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Linearity, Gauss and Boltzmann-Stefan
The application of the Stefan-Boltzmann equations to address global processes of warming or cooling takes as assumption that our atmosphere and even the surface receiving radiation from our Sun is homogenous and in thermodynamic equilibrium.
That takes for granted that our planet behaves thermodynamically as a flat world in surface, or more exactly, as an spherically “flat” world without effects derived from differences in height, roughness, density, land cover, water/land composition, …). And where everything is linear and proportional from distance following a Gaussian distribution (bell shape); Sound, light, temperature and atmospheric composition.
However, our world is nothing even close to a regular superficial flat world, or even homogeneously spherically shaped in composition, structure and behaviour. And the most clear example of that comes by the mere existence of clouds.
In an homogeneous world in thermodynamic equilibrium clouds would not exist since those are singular cells with their own entropy different from the surroundings.
(see further discussion at: March 10, 2016 Tangled in Words. Atmospheric Dynamics, Stefan Boltzmann Calculations and Energy Balance (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.28443.57120
#research #climatechange #diegofdezsevilla
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Seasonality
May 2015 has become March 2019. In between, things have speed up consistently.
Related Analyses:
May 14, 2015 A roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.27634.20165
October 5, 2018 A New Pattern in Atmospheric Circulation drives towards an “unpredictable” New Climatic Scenario (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Available in pdf with DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.31673.62567
October 25, 2018 Seasonality, Orbital Positioning and Planetary Tilt (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Registered DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.28287.25769
March 3, 2019 A pattern of change in the atmosphere beyond considering global warming or cooling. That is, global mixing. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Registered DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.32693.73445
In March 2019 we are seeing strong activity near the Equator. The ENSO does not explain it and Arctic SST neither. Since 2014 I propose another option which could explain it.
My approach, data, observations and analyses 2013-19 indicate that the weakening of the North Polar Jet Stream is not due to processes of early snow precipitation as it proposes the theory of Arctic Amplification, neither SST albedo or Arctic SST.
Furthermore, my analyses point in opposite direction to as the Arctic being the driver delivering “influences on mid-latitude weather and extreme events“, but instead, the Arctic is absorbing the impact from mid-latitudinal convection showing anomalies in Temp (Latitude and Altitude SSW) and Precipitation through the Winter, due to the weathering effect exerted by wetter and warmer mid-latitudes pushing towards the Poles.
Since the Arctic has the lowest energy pool of the entire North Hemisphere, at the Equator, is where we might see in the near future, the use of energy amplifying processes yet being considered too mild to become relevant.
Related analysis: May 26, 2016 Atmospheric Circulation and the Mixing Zone. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34019.04645
Full index for all analyses carried out between 2013 to date at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com
#research #diegofdezsevilla #climate
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The Method
We have reached a point in which many discussions based on data are actually using beliefs even without being aware of it.
One example I see comes with the ENSO. If El Niño only happens once in a while, and scientists only rely on El Niño to offer an explanation (without knowing what generates El Niño), the science behind such posture actually is based on believing blindly in “an echo” taking for granted a form of knowledge which is actually missing. That is why I have written several analyses on this subject. But also there are other “beliefs” in science which are completely dismissing basic and primordial questions. And that is why I have analysed and discussed the discrepancies that I have found in my research when compared with mainstream.
- January 20, 2017. Climate and Indexes. A dashboard of Confusion. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25016.96007
- August 31, 2017 Climate. A System Becoming Dominated By Free Energy. The “Drama”, Character Driven VS Plot Driven (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18509.13289
Another example is the Theory of Arctic Amplification which begun as a mere observation (temperature at the Arctic is increasing faster than at lower latitudes) and became a theory without a coherent explanation (see discussion at: February 28, 2018 Arctic Warming as a Result of Convective Forcing by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34551.73125)
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Proof of Concept
Based on my research, the ice cover missing is not due to a “massive heat release to the atmosphere (Arctic Amplification)” but due to an introduction of heat from mid-latitudes. The absence of “solid water” comes from the heat being transferred by intrusions of warm air. These warm intrusions are reducing the differential in energy gradients between oceanic water and atmosphere so there is not enough contrast to grow ice. The atmosphere in the Arctic shows to carry moist from Mid-Latitudes instead of being dry air from Arctic circulation, and it is having an effect below its position (reducing Arctic ice cover and warming up SST) as well as above it, inducing a weak polar vortex.
The recent developments observed at the Arctic throughout Winter 2018-19 shows to support such assessment.
Related analyses and recent developments:
- November 17, 2016. Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.24688.35848
- December 17, 2016. Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20129.81760
- February 28, 2018. Arctic Warming as a Result of Convective Forcing by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34551.73125
Against all papers applying models based on using algorithms, previous assessments published in the present line of research show to be validated by the real time developments. Something which can be contrasted by the reader looking into the mentioned analyses and the analysis published by the NSIDC on March 2019.
Some examples from excerpts contained in previous analyses:
– December 2016 – Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20129.81760
(excerpt from the publication: …
The subject of Arctic warming has been very widely presented in the media, and yet, little discussion is added to address this event. Everybody seems to follow the same “mantra”, without giving much thought about it. Since the “leaders” represent the knowledge, they mark the path, others put on them the responsibility to think for us and many blindly follow.
One example which represents many sources is the publication: “Something strange is happening with the Arctic sea ice. Here’s what’s going on, and why it matters“. Written by Alex Gray (Senior Writer, Formative Content). Published Friday 25 November 2016. www.weforum.org
“This year the Arctic sea ice has retreated earlier than normal, meaning that the sea had longer to absorb the heat from the sun. As a result, at the start of the season when sea ice should be forming, the water was still too warm.
Air temperature also played a part. October’s air temperatures were unusually high over most of the Arctic Ocean for that time of year.”
Using the same words as those applied in the paragraph published but adding a different order we could end up with what it would be my assessment based on my research:
“This year the Arctic sea ice has retreated earlier than normal. October’s air temperatures were unusually high over most of the Arctic Ocean for that time of year. Meaning that the sea had longer to absorb the heat from the sun. As a result, at the start of the season when sea ice should be forming, the water was still too warm.”
Needless to say that “Air temperature “also” played a part.”)
March 15, 2019 Misleading Concepts in Arctic Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Registered DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.11085.69600
excerpt from the publication: …For the case of Arctic atmospheric warming events, Temperature is the result of a process as well as it is ice formation, that is heat transference. So when water transfers heat into the atmosphere it cools down. The Arctic Amplification theory is claiming that ocean waters release heat without reducing its temperature to explain the absence of ice and increase in atmospheric temperatures. That happens in one place of our planet with which we can compare.
With atmospheric temperatures of minus ten, the spring waters at Yudanaka in Japan, warm up the body of Monkeys and inhibit ice formation without cooling down.
Opposite to the interpretation from the Arctic amplification theory, the air above keeps cold enough to maintain water in solid form as snow. The theory of Arctic Amplification claims that local warm waters are responsible for warm temperatures in the Arctic air. The situation in Yudanaka demonstrates the inaccuracy of such interpretation and supports the mechanisms suggested in the present line of research pointing to midlatitudinal convective forcing.
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NSIDC report 13 March2019
“On average, Bering sea ice extent increases until late March or early April. As of the beginning of March, the 2019 Bering Sea ice extent was the lowest in the satellite record for this time of year. Strong winds between pressure centers drew warm air into the region from the south, inhibiting ice growth in the Bering Sea while also pushing ice to the north. Warmer than average sea surface temperatures have also been observed in the region.”
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The Research
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The approach followed in the line of research here presented has discrepancies with the path followed by mainstream in aspects as such:
- the ENSO is not a driver of atmospheric dynamics but instead it is driven by,
- that the Polar vortex configuration is not “the cause for” atmospheric dynamics but “the result of”,
- that SST are a consequence of atmospheric dynamics and not the trigger, and
- that the biotic component in the planet is the only responsible for taming the atmospheric dynamics shaping our climate, avoiding a complete release of energetic discharges from Sun´s exposition.
Furthermore, something in common for all previous ice ages is that none of them were an expansion in the territory for cold conditions while the centre of such area remained unaltered or even warmer than previous periods. Something we see now for the first time as far as my knowledge goes on ice cores.
My interpretation is that never through the previous periods of time there has been a coalescence in time and space (geologically speaking) for a simultaneous alteration in the stratification of the composition, structure and concentration of the components part of the thermodynamic ecosystem built upon the synergistic interactions between soils, gases and water. In geological terms the only way to move backwards in time is by a sequence of events but never when everything happens at once.
Some examples of analyses carried out Assessing The Method and Assessing Climatic Dynamics:
| “The Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything” is … 42 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2400.2324 | May 15, 2014 |
| June 5, 2015 | Climate and Data. Drinking From the Source (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) |
| Debating Climate, Environment and Planetary evolution. Define your position. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.27332.73603 | October 2, 2014 |
| February 17, 2017 | State of Knowledge. Between The Walls Of Silence There Is A Silhouette With The Form Of An Interrogation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) |
| March 10, 2017 | Modelling the “Model” and the Observer (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.17558.04169 |
Recent analyses 2019
Throughout the Winter 2019, cold “and warm” dynamics at tropospheric and stratospheric levels have happened simultaneously. Those dynamics show a pattern through the seasons where warm temperatures move north followed by a stratospheric Warming process which promotes a weak Polar Vortex.
Based on the results obtained throughout all the analyses carried out since 2013, and the validation from real time developments, my interpretation differ from all the theories available describing Global processes of Warming or Cooling, and even against the directionality proposed by the theory of Arctic Amplification suggesting Arctic Warming as the source of influence over the Mid -Latitudinal circulation.
In short, my conclusions point out that:
Between global warming and global cooling we are living under a process of global mixing, promoted by an increase in the atmospheric energy pool, using water vapour as the carrier of such energetic extra, thanks to an enhanced thermal capacity generated from increasing GHGs, Albedo and Aerosols. The origin of this imbalance in the energetic pool driving the thermodynamic system can be associated with changes in the composition, structure, location and concentration of the solid, liquid and gaseous components integrating the Planetary system. Human activities can be associated with all those changes.
Recent temp anomalies NH Feb2019. _____________
Recent Analysis part of the present study. _____________
March 3, 2019 A pattern of change in the atmosphere beyond considering global warming or cooling. That is, global mixing. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Registered DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.32693.73445
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Follow-up over Previous analyses shared in the present study carried out since 2013 and shared also at LinkedIn
The debate on climate focus the attention over the statistical existence of a value capable of unifying postures. The abstract and variable nature of such concept has opened so many lines of discussion that nobody has been able to define a pattern which could be validated against real time developments. In such scenario my line of research over climatic developments has been built upon a framework offering a tangible pattern associated to real time events. Thanks to this approach years can be compared and dynamics can be identified, offering the possibility of validating analyses capable of describing a progression of change which statistical analyses can not due to the constant shift defining ground cero.
In 2016 I had pointed out patterns in atmospheric circulation based on two years of observation starting in 2013. On the 31st December 2015 I emphasized in LinkedIn the high probability of facing in the winter 2016 a strong Pacific participation in a similar event as it was Juno last year 2015 over the east of EEUU.”
Winters15-16-17-18-19 have delivered events which support these two assessments, seeing water vapour reaching higher Latitudes and a strong Pacific participation in a similar event as it was Juno year 2015 over the east of EEUU.
Observed Atmospheric Dynamics. A Follow-up Assessment Over The Theory Proposed on Energetic Gradients by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.28948.19843
(excerpt from the publication: The first assessment included in the theory proposed in this line of research was the increasing probability of seeing water vapour reaching higher Latitudes and the patterns followed in both basins, Atlantic and Pacific.
Another major feature introduced in this line of research has been the application of thermodynamic laws as part of my interpretation over the recent events.
The atmosphere has reached a tipping point in absorbing energy at mid latitudes and the constant contact of warm masses of air with those from polar latitudes has worn off the strength of the Polar Jet Stream.
Such circumstance has allowed the atmosphere to spread the energy carried by water vapour from mid latitudes into northern latitudes, being able of holding more energy than before since it is not dissipated into their surroundings when moving across latitudes.
As a whole, the research here presented points to a new scenario in atmospheric dynamics in which the Arctic circulation, previously isolated from Subtropical influence by the Polar Jet Stream, has become open to be involved in the atmospheric dynamics for the Pacific and Atlantic basins. This new interconnection will affect the atmospheric dynamics around the whole North Hemisphere. But also, by being our atmosphere a close system, subsidiary, such alteration would also affect dynamics at the Equator and due to symmetric compensation between Hemispheres, also into the South Hemisphere. As it has been pointed out previously, the presence of the storm Alex hovering over the Atlantic for over a week in the middle of January (IR Figure zone C), the tropical storm Pali reaching the equator (IR Figure zone B), rain reaching Arctic latitudes and floods instead of snow in UK and Sweden in December, suggest that the approach followed in this theory is able to unify all those events in this line of research.
Ultimately, even the gravitational forces exerting their influence over the volumes of water vapour incorporated in the atmosphere, would play a role with unknown consequences.
Climate As A Consequence
As environmental Biologist myself, I understand our climate as the consequence from the relationship existent between biotic and none biotic components through the gaseous medium we call the atmosphere. Such approach looks into, not only the inert components of the whole system, but also, the canvas to be fulfilled with knowledge over the mechanisms linking environmental performance and atmospheric composition through the synergistic relationship existing between biotic and none biotic components.
I have been studying Environmental synergies since 1995, with an specific involvement in atmospheric dynamics since 2002. From 2013, for over two years I have focused my attention into studying the mechanisms behind atmospheric dynamics involved in composing the complex system of weather patterns which sustain our climate. I have even developed a theoretical approach to understand new developments, and I believe that I have offered grounded evidence to support that the biological performance of our ecosystems are directly involved in two ways: by affecting the composition of the atmosphere and the thermodynamic behaviour of it (particulate matter and gaseous compounds) as well as by interacting in the energy budget of the planet either directly through biochemical processes or indirectly through physical processes related with albedo and soil weathering. One example of such interaction can be observed throughout the whole year in the atmospheric circulation above the Amazons. (more here)
Considering those concepts altogether, biological systems would play the role of a rudder for a ship in the middle of the sea. It is not the strength of a single force what dominates the global system but the management of those forces what it makes the difference. And all of that it is happening in the atmosphere and on the ground through land cover and use (more here).
#research #climate #diegofdezsevilla
Following the current line of study we are witnessing the evolution of a climatic regime reacting to pressures defining a calendar in a chain reaction following phases.
We are in the fourth phase “heat into motion”, before the next.
In the analysis of the atmospheric circulation presented in this line of research, in the publication from September 8, 2015 titled A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) some relevant aspects identified throughout 2019 were already discussed.
The Current publication from October 2018 A New Pattern in Atmospheric Circulation drives towards an “unpredictable” New Climatic Scenario (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.31673.62567, is an extension of previous work.
See overall conclusions at the publication Final Review in Progress. March 2017. From ENSO to Scientific Thinking by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD (Posted on March 23, 2017) and full index with the state of the research and previous analyses (and DOIs) at Framework and Timeline page.
Seasonal transitions “were” characterised by the change in angle of planet’s tilt where the temperatures measured at the different latitudes varied following a gradient with respect to the distance from the part of the planet with the highest angle of solar radiation. That was based on Stefan-Boltzman calculations and under stable compartmentalisation of the atmosphere by a thermal zonification in circulation. Once such zonification in circulation gets broken, new set of variations raise dominating seasonal transitions.
- March 2016 Seasonality Spring 2016. Continuous follow-up on my previous research assessing atmospheric dynamics D. Fdez-Sevilla DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2833.8968
- March 10, 2016 Tangled in Words. Atmospheric Dynamics, Stefan Boltzmann Calculations and Energy Balance D. Fdez-Sevilla DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.28443.57120
- September, 2016 Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” D. Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.19874.63684
- June 29, 2018 Seasonal Transitions under a New Climatic Scenario Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18385.22881
- October 18, 2018 Arctic Dynamics as part of a Global Pattern in Atmospheric Circulation. D.Fdez-Sevilla PhD DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.26042.03522
Consistency makes the difference between luck and understanding. There is a big difference between I didn´t see it, and I didn´t see it “coming”. What we have to change is the mentality about what we do not see and what we do not see it “coming”.
“(NH dynamics review) I could write something about the implications of current developments over the global assessment behind the dynamics we see unfolding these days (February 19) and yet, I would look at the transition from previous years and I offer the same conclusions as the ones I have published since the beginning of the present line of research back in 2013. Nothing has changed in the dynamics that we see in the current situation. If anything can be taken from current developments is that those dynamics over the mixing fluctuations driven by kinetic forcing are becoming more evident over time, in altitude and latitude. This situation is highlighted by the publications seen in the “timeline” for January and the dynamics described in the publications addressing Arctic dynamics, Equatorial dynamics, SST anomalies (ENSO), Mixing Dynamics (specially the publication: “A climate between waters”), Kinetic Seasonality, ..
Look for “seasonality” (use “ctrl+F”) at diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com
#diegofdezsevilla
#climatechange
Each time a weather event occurs makes the news. But in order to make the news has to be different, new? Apart from the timing, it doesnot seem to be the case in many weather events occurring this winter, and I would say in the recent years. Same patterns seem to be repeating in the Pacific and Atlantic basins.The reason behind such contrasts can be assessed in different ways. We can claim that it is result of a weak Polar Jet Stream allowing polar masses of air breaking into low latitudes. We can also blame it to trans-longitudinal movements of polar masses of air coming from the West into the East which trigger pronounced Rossby Waves and the development of strong fronts and troughs bringing cold weather. One way or another, my assessment is that we have seen one after another displacements of cold air from the Arctic due convective forcing from warmer masses of air getting into high latitudes and altitudes. And based on my previous assessments over the configuration of the Polar Jet Stream, Polar vortex, Pacific and Atlantic circulation combined altogether across the Arctic, I presume that these events of masses of air crossing latitudes will be prolonged in time through spring.
- February 2016. Forecasts For Ecosystems (2016 Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) ReasearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36832.17925
Are you aware of any major floods in Europe? “Very often we get trapped under the latest developments and there is a tendency to replace old information with new, more exuberant news. This constant replacement of “old” information with “new” alters the perception of linearity since it cuts any continuous momentum by generating a sense of seeing the new, the most recent as the more important and the focus of all attention.
I want to add some perspective here, with this article, over the significance of the events generating floods over Western Europe between December and January 2015/16. In order to asses the implications of such phenomena it is important to consider the inertial momentum that we are living in the developments of our atmospheric weather events, from considering each one independently to a continuous whole.” (Originally published January 13, 2016. Update 6th Feb 2019 with addendum. see more at diegofdezsevilla.wordpress com)
January 13, 2016. Atmospheric Dynamics And Shapes (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.35973.65765
diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com #flood #diegofdezsevilla
Climate and Weather Patterns “In Transition” by Diego Fdez Sevilla PhD
YouTube 3 nov. 2017
In the line of research that I have developed and presented since 2013 I have tried to offer an innovative approach into climatic studies, but also, to develop new ways of making visual representations accompanying my analyses. Among those there are 3Dgraphics and animations, and presentations in video format at youtube. I have even included some music from my own making in some of them (you can always mute it). Following presentation showcase key conclusions reached throughout the present study and example of foreseen dynamics at NH as part of an increasingly frequent global pattern
More Animations at youtube channel
Full line of research with 200+ analyses at
- https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com
- https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Diego_Fdez-Sevilla
- orcid.org/0000-0001-8685-0206
- d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com
Articles related:
- October 21, 2014 New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Pdf registered Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4859.3440
- November 14, 2014 Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Pdf registered Researchgate DOI:10.13140/RG.2.1.2500.0488
- February 10, 2015 Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Pdf registered Researchgate: DOI:10.13140/RG.2.1.1975.7602/1
- December 17, 2016 Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Pdf registered Researchgate: DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.20129.81760
- November 17, 2016 Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Pdf registered Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.24688.35848
- September 14, 2016– Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) Pdf registered Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.19874.63684
- February 28, 2018 Arctic Warming as a Result of Convective Forcing by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Pdf registered at ResearchGate DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.34551.73125
- October 18, 2018 Arctic Dynamics as part of a Global Pattern in Atmospheric Circulation. Research Follow-up October 2018 (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Pdf registered at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.26042.03522
- March 3, 2019 A pattern of change in the atmosphere beyond considering global warming or cooling. That is, global mixing. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Pdf Registered DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.32693.73445
In order to become aware of the position played by the line of research here presented among the official state of knowledge, the reader should see the update by the NSIDC in contrast with mentioned publications. At least three years lag between assessment and acceptance, yet to be defined acknowledgement.
I would like to invite you all to explore the whole line of research undergoing since 2013.
By following the links embedded I pretend to broaden the significance of each phrase and idea as part of the debate.
The challenge in scientific assessments does not come just from being able to supply ideas or data which explains current developments, there are also geopolitical debates and clashes which shift the shape of what we call state of knowledge.
The question which underlies my research is, what if I am right even when peers in my line of research do not want to acknowledge it?
And if my assessments are right, how much lag is actually carrying the state of knowledge offered in corporative publishing media in relation with the pace at which things are happening?
Also relevant in this publication: EGU conference. Is open science the way t go?”. Min 27. The currency of data and data parasites. Min 35 Creative commons license. Min 45 Data Sharing and rules of engagement. min 56 Q&A Data Citations and Credit on producing data) https://lnkd.in/e89qv_Z
About this Project
This project published in a blog format, offers pieces of original research in environmental science, and a space for discussion, based on considering as a major factor limiting our understandings the lack of attention given to the gaps of knowledge existent. The concepts, measurements and parameters applied to address environmental synergistic interactions are too narrow and isolated from each other to understand their full meaning. Such circumstance induce to reach dogmatic patterns of thought to make the quickest conclusions in the absence of a better and clear idea describing what is happening.
In this Project I aim to address those limitations using observational analyses offering assessments over real time events considering those as proxies of significant value to make interpretations over global synergistic relationships.
Feedback is always welcome here and at my email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com
Since 2002 I have performed research over the Atmospheric Dynamics interacting with the biota in the field of Aerobiology (PhD studying atmospheric conditions affecting the efficiency of pollen sampling and the aerodynamic behaviour of pollen. Conclusions here. Article on anthropogenic forcing over plants performance here).
In Oct 2013 I focused my attention over climatic dynamics and in Oct 2014 I published what I believe to be a valid theory explaining current developments in atmospheric dynamics. I shared my thoughts at my blog and several groups in LinkedIn (like the AGU, NASA and NOA groups) where the immense response offered has been silence.
On 17th of December 2014, Jennifer Francis sent her answer to me (full email exchange here):
“The topic you’ve written about is extremely complicated and many of your statements have not yet been verified by peer-reviewed research. It is an exciting and active new direction in research, though, so I encourage you to pursue it. To get funding or a job in this field, however, will require a deeper understanding of the state of the research, knowledge of atmospheric dynamics (not just suggestive examples and anecdotal evidence), and statements supported by published (or your own) analysis.”
On December 24, 2014, I sent her my reply, which represents the final one since there has not been further communication:
“I just want to thank you for giving me a chance and read my ideas. What I wrote was after reading that Cohen proposed that early snowfall over Asia increases albedo leading to heat retention in the atmosphere provoking Artic ice to melt and create heat absorption leading to jet stream weakening due to Artic Amplification in atm heat absorption. I believe that all of that is a consequence and not the trigger. That is a symptom and not the cause. My theory tries to find common ground to explain the cause leading to Arctic amplification, blocking patterns associated to deep cyclonic events, a pause in atmospheric T raise, increase in kinetic energy dispersed over the whole hemisphere, water flash floods, as well as frequent trans-equatorial circulation between hemispheres at jet stream level.I will try to find data to support my theory and I am open to reconsider all my assumptions. That’s why I really appreciate your input.”
In Feb 2015 I published a revision and since then, a constant follow-up throughout more than 230 assessments. Still today, 2019, the majority of the response is silence despite the amount of visits identified by all the SEO tools and the interactions and shares accounted for individual visits and Institutions (see tab in the right side of the blog and the stats below and open image in new tab for full size options).
So I thank your open feedback and share.
“Filling in and Finding Out Gaps of Knowledge”
In AUGUST 2014, Cohen et al, published a review over the state of knowledge on Climatic Assessments: “Review Article: Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather.” Nature Geoscience volume 7, pages 627–637 (2014) (DOI:10.1038/NGEO2234).
“The theory that Arctic amplification is resulting in a slower zonal jet, increased meridional flow, amplified waves and more persistent extreme weather has received a lot of attention from the media, policymakers and climate scientists. In part due to the high profile, this hypothesis has been scrutinized in the scientific literature more extensively than other hypotheses linking Arctic climate change to mid-latitude weather. However, it is worth noting that other studies on related topics, especially other studies on related topics, especially other observational studies, share some of the same shortcomings: lack of statistical significance, causality unclear, incomplete mechanistic understanding, and so on”.
Between 2014 and 2016 I shared analyses over real time developments in order to validate the hypothesis behind the conclusions offered in 2013. After 2016 I incorporated the process of validating those against time by re-publishing them in contrast with the developments seen in the following years. For the Winter 17-18 I actually have re-published previous assessments with a month or two prior to the period of time addressed in order to evaluate its potential representing a pattern.
In Feb 2017, the line of research presented in this blog reached a final stage in which its framework has demonstrated to hold and support the theoretical approach behind the study bringing original and innovative insights into the state of knowledge addressing environmental synergies by “Filling in and Finding out gaps of knowledge”.
| March 23, 2017 | Final Review in Progress. March 2017. From ENSO to Scientific Thinking by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.33915.82726 |
Theories have been formulated to explain, predict, and understand phenomena and, in many cases, to challenge and extend existing knowledge within the limits of critical bounding assumptions.
| October 21, 2015 | Discussing Climatic Teleconnections. Follow Up On My Previous Research (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2962.7605 |
| January 20, 2017 | Climate and Indexes. A dashboard of Confusion. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25016.96007 |
| April 19, 2018 | Climate, Weather and Energy. Using a Climatic Regime to explain Weather Events by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Research DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.27923.58406 |
Numerous Follow-ups over previous assessments have been published contrasting their validity against real-time developments (in the timeline section below use ctrl+F: “follow-up”) challenging and legitimizing the conclusions offered:
- Models confuse the science in which those are applied. Factions opposed in views will not come together by using models. And even there is no need for it. Darwin did not need an algorithm and a model to identify genetic evolution. The observational evidence was so strong that unified the scientific community. And evolution is a process comparable with climate, reacts to pressures.
| “The Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything” is … 42 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2400.2324 | May 15, 2014 |
| Debating Climate, Environment and Planetary evolution. Define your position. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.27332.73603 | October 2, 2014 |
| March 10, 2017 | Modelling the “Model” and the Observer (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.17558.04169 |
- Arctic Amplification takes an assumption open for discussion: “sea ice acts as a barrier for the heat transport from the ocean to the atmosphere.” Actually, sea ice acts as a barrier for the heat transport *from the atmosphere to the ocean. The line of research offered taking Arctic SST as responsible for warming processes is not considering the thermodynamics behind changes in phase (liquid/solid/gas) and the difference between condensible and not condensible GHGs. Heat moves between locations AND phases. SST warming the atmosphere would loose heat, thus forming ice.
| November 17, 2016 | Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.24688.35848 |
| December 17, 2016 | Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20129.81760 |
| February 28, 2018 | Arctic Warming as a Result of Convective Forcing by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Pdf at ResearchGate DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.34551.73125 |
- Between global warming and global cooling there is global mixing.
| September 8, 2015 | Trans-Arctic circulation between Pacific and Atlantic Basins. A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla). Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1697.5847 |
| May 26, 2016 | Atmospheric Circulation and the Mixing Zone. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34019.04645 |
| July 1, 2016 | Atmospheric mixing. Indian Basin June 2016 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.11803.98088 |
| August 26, 2016 | Aug 2016 Follow-up on previous assessments. Atmospheric Dynamics, Temperature Displacements, Atmospheric Mixing (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)
DOI 10.13140/RG.2.2.24586.36804
|
| September 14, 2016 | Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.19874.63684 |
| October 13, 2016 | Global Mixing in Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.)ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.21255.60320 |
| June 9, 2017 | “Mixing Dynamics” in the Atmosphere. A follow-up on previous research by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.23548.03209 |
| March 14, 2018 | Visualising Wind and Convective Forcing Driving Climatic Dynamics. Follow-up 14 March 2018 by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Pdf available at DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34233.06249 |
| April 19, 2018 | Climate, Weather and Energy. Using a Climatic Regime to explain Weather Events by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Research DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.27923.58406 |
- Anthropogenic transformations over the structure and composition of the three phases of the environment (Gaseous-Atmosphere, Solid- Land Use and Cover, Liquid-Water bodies) have reduced CxHxOx and increased CxOx+HxOx, CxHx, as well as albedo, … altering the energetic balance in the thermodynamic system which conforms our Climatic regimes.
| July 24, 2015 | Solar Activity and Human Activity, Settling Their Environmental Liability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36702.33606 |
| March 3, 2017 | Thermodynamic Ecosystems by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.32238.10566 |
| March 23, 2017 | Final Review in Progress. March 2017. From ENSO to Scientific Thinking by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.33915.82726 |
You can look at the whole project (more than 200 analyses published between 2013 and 2018) published at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com and also you will find some of those publications with a DOI in my profile at ResearchGate
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Weather, Climate, Energy, Environment and Man
However I have followed a different approach in my analyses looking at Gradients of Energy in all its forms. That is why in 2014 I offered my thoughts as a theory of practical applications addressing variations in the gradients of energy found in the atmosphere.
Energy fuels the work done by warm masses of air displacing colder masses of air in their path. That increases mixing patterns generating anomalies in temperature.
“Behind an increase in the amount of work carried out by masses of air there is an increase in the energy fuelling such dynamics.”
Energy can only be transferred, not created or destroyed. So more work means more energy in circulation. More energy in circulation can only be sustained by a substance carrying it. Either if we consider that the energy driving anomalies comes from the Sun or from the Oceans, the carrier has to be in the atmosphere in order for the energy to produce work. And the body loosing heat cools down.
A corridor of wind over the Arctic is triggered by a conversion of Temperature into work, convection and advection, which are the result of mixing masses of air.
As it was published in previous analyses, such Trans-Arctic connection between Atlantic and Pacific Basins is part of a pattern increasing the mixing ratio between masses of air 
otherwise separated by thermal compartmentalization, like the Polar Jet Stream. An increase in the dispersion of energetic forms have different outcomes, one of which it would be a temporary reduction in the average temperature resultant for the mixing between Cold (Arctic) and warm (Mid-Latitude) masses of air as well as in altitude (SSW).
Subsequently, “temperature” is less reliable than looking at “work” seen even in the “mild” events.
(see related analysis: Statistical Significance. The Scary Side of Being Mild (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.21934.61767
In the framework presented throughout the line of research published in this blog (and researchgate) it has been considered “Climate” as being defined by the amount of energy free to do work. In other words, energy free to promote weather events.
And accordingly, in the present line of research I define Climate by the amount and state of energy in circulation, and Weather by the use of this energy.(more here-link)
With the definition applied for Climate and Weather, my definition of Climate Drift is:
“the deviation from equilibrium of the conditions allowing the perpetuity of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in a micro and macro ecosystem. This situation can be due to changes in any component of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes can be either a change in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality or rates in the flows of energy pre-established OR/AND the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components/forces and energy sinks or sources in any part of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance.”
In my assessments I have defended that the increase in the energy pool at mid-latitudes would ultimately create an scenario with an overcharged atmosphere. That would reduce the contrasts with which to create and maintain stability in the structure required to condense energy in singular events, like hurricanes. Giving more relevance to the single contrast between Ocean/continental masses. However, the opening of the Arctic circulation through a weak Jet Stream would reduce the pressure in the containment absorbing the condensation of energy at mid-latitudes, expanding into a new volume.
Accordingly, hadley circulation gets affected (see also) generating new patterns of turbulence at the ITCZ (hurricanes, typhoons, …) as well as it gets influenced Arctic mixing zones with lower latitudes.
In this scenario TCs are generated under an increase in the mixing ratio of an unstable atmospheric circulation dominated by kinetic energy transferred by water vapour thanks to GHGs, and immersed in an overcharged atmosphere with no place where to diffuse its energy, becoming resilient as long as they stay over the ocean. So they endure like a piece of an ice rock in cold water.
About Sea Surface Temperatures, my assessments take SST as subsequent conditions driven by wind shear. So the interaction between masses of air in circulation allows or inhibits SST developments. Once the scenario is built on SST this becomes a “battle field” conditioning the subsequent interaction between the following masses of air and the characteristics of the “grounds” where the game will be played (sort of speak). Like the effect of the ice conditions in an ice hockey match.
El Niño is an event which happens in a very small portion of the Earth, it is related to the temperature of a very thin layer of the Ocean in depth, a small percentage of the area occupied by the whole Oceanic masses, and even smaller when it is integrated in the multidimensional space combining Ocean and Atmosphere.
It is kind of intriguing to think why it has been so easy to conclude that such small portion of the entire system is driving it as a whole. It is like considering that the flowering of plants drives the seasons. Similarly it could be said about using SST at the Arctic to justify altogether; the lack of ice, warmer temperatures at tropospheric level and even at stratospheric level. There is not enough energy in the SST of such small area as it is the Arctic to justify all those convective dynamics.
- March 22, 2016 Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1968.5521).
- February 28, 2018, Arctic Warming as a Result of Convective Forcing by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhDResearchGate DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.34551.73125
- May 23, 2018, Convective Forcing Dominates Atmospheric Circulation NH (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.23043.20002
It can not surprise me enough the fact that there is a scientific agreement followed by theories such the Arctic Amplification and Stephan Boltzmann black body radiation, which focus on single locations as sources of energy triggering warming events. Arctic amplification focus the attention in the Arctic, and the absence of ice decreasing albedo, to justify the location for the source of energy warming the atmosphere in the Sea Surface Waters. And it does it even considering the absence of Solar radiation, which in itself discards any process of albedo absorbing and re-emitting energy. Accordingly with their theory, Arctic amplification suggests that Arctic circulation affects circulation at mid-latitudes, however, all the dynamics we see point in the opposite direction. Mid latitudinal forcing pushes against Arctic restrictions through the Jet Stream, displacing cold masses of air in their path, using water vapour as the carrier of the energy feeding convective motions.
Animations from previous publications:
Stephan Boltzmann relation describing radiative gradients of temperature rely entirely on an idealized body homogeneous in composition and even pressure. Such statement neglects the nature of the processes involved in the transference of energy found in the atmosphere where there are simultaneously three states of matter, gaseous, liquid and solid, numerous compounds different in molecular composition and behaviour, as well as an active thermodynamic system made of heterogeneous cells containing independent microsystems of entropy, interacting in a macro system out from equilibrium. (more here).
So opposite from a black body, the distribution of radiation and heat across an
heterogeneous system delivers an uneven distribution marked by the nature of the connections built between micro and macro systems, ecosystems and abiotic systems, gaseous, liquid, solid and multi-estate systems. It becomes evident that there is not a distribution of temperatures following a gradient defined by Stephan-Boltzmann estimations because the transference of energy is heterogeneous due to the heterogeneous composition and disposition of the matter states in the planetary system. By understanding those limitations we can identify the expansion
of energetic pulses throughout the atmosphere avoiding focusing the attention over the temperatures and instead, focusing the attention into identifying the “work” expressed by the dynamics in motion, either as forms of precipitation, trans-latitudinal transportation of matter (Water Vapour), transference of radiation (SSW), discharges of electricity and displacements of cold and heat waves.
In my research I have been very persistent trying to highlight how much relevance it is given to a small area in size and depth driving global circulation as it is the SST at the Eq Pacific or Arctic Sea while an area of the same size and even more depth could be identified in the Amazon or by the change suffered in Land cover by agriculture at global scale.
We have to consider that SST are measured in the 5 or less m of the Ocean meanwhile Forests can occupy more than 15 meters in depth. And both are sources of the latent heat
carried out in the atmosphere which fuels convective dynamics dominating intrusions over the Arctic.
Among those analyses published in my line of research some time ago studying the impact from changes in Land cover over atmospheric dynamics:
- April 23, 2015 Matching Features Between Land Surface and Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20035.30247. https://wp.me/p403AM-xK
- June 10, 2016 The Butterfly Effect on Arctic Circulation. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) https://wp.me/p403AM-12H
Discussion
There have been some assessments showing major discrepancies between the line of research presented here and main stream scientific coverage. The assessments are about the concept of climate drift, the link between the Polar Vortex and tropospheric circulation, the role played by SST and the ENSO, the dynamics explaining abnormal Arctic Warming and sea ice cover, the synergistic implications from the biotic component and the scientific methodology applied.
Polar Vortex
| November 14, 2014 | Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2500.0488 |
| October 25, 2016 | Another Heat Wave Another Polar Vortex II … Broken (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.13418.93124 |
Climate Drift
| October 21, 2014 | (Updated 22/Dec/14) New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4859.3440 |
| Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Drift. Are we there yet? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) | July 2, 2015 |
| September 2, 2016 | Climate Drift, The True Meaning of Things and the Drift of Those. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) |
Arctic Amplification
| September 8, 2015 | Trans-Arctic circulation between Pacific and Atlantic Basins. A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla). Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1697.5847 |
| October 7, 2015 | Arctic Intake of Water Vapour (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) |
| October 30, 2015 | Follow-up on Arctic circulation 30 Oct 2015 ( by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) |
| June 10, 2016 | The Butterfly Effect on Arctic Circulation. Peer review verification on previous assessments (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) |
| November 10, 2016 | Cyclonic Alignment Towards the Arctic (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.27102.95046 |
| November 17, 2016 | Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) |
| December 17, 2016 | Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20129.81760 |
| February 28, 2018 | Arctic Warming as a Result of Convective Forcing by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34551.73125 |
| August 24, 2018 | The Arctic Conundrum. Follow-up on previous research by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD ResearchGate pdf DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.15411.68640 |
| October 18, 2018 | Arctic Dynamics as part of a Global Pattern in Atmospheric Circulation. Research Follow-up October 2018 (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Pdf available at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.26042.03522 |
| March 15, 2019 | Misleading Concepts in Arctic Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Registered DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.11085.69600 |
SST and ENSO
| October 16, 2015 | SST Anomalies and Heat Waves. Are They Not All Just Heat Displacements? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.23741.05608 |
| December 11, 2015 | Could It Be El Niño The New “Wolf” Coming? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.3238.2801 |
| March 22, 2016 | Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1968.5521 |
| June 23, 2017 | “Seasonal Outlook. June 2017 (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25428.91528 |
The Biotic Synergy
| June 26, 2014 | Biological Productivity and its Influence on Cloud Formation. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) |
| December 22, 2014 | Biological Productivity, Amazonia and Atmospheric Circulation. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.10771.99363 |
| May 7, 2015 | Domesticating Nature. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Rsearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36812.51848 |
| April 22, 2016 | Plant an Idea and Then a Tree… But Which Ones? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.3977.0489 |
| March 3, 2017 | Thermodynamic Ecosystems by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.32238.10566 |
| May 26, 2017 | Review. CO2 Makes Headlines To Grow Like Trees, Shaping Different Forests Offering Different Views (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.16286.33601 |
The Scientific Method
| Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Drift. Are we there yet? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) | July 2, 2015 |
| March 10, 2017 | Modelling the “Model” and the Observer (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.17558.04169 |
Teleconnections
| January 20, 2017 | Climate and Indexes. A dashboard of Confusion. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25016.96007 |
| April 19, 2018 | Climate, Weather and Energy. Using a Climatic Regime to explain Weather Events by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Research DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.27923.58406 |
Solar Activity
| April 10, 2014 | Exploring the effects of humanly generated factors in the role played by Solar activity in the climate. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) |
| July 24, 2014 | Our Sun today (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) |
| July 24, 2015 | Solar Activity and Human Activity, Settling Their Environmental Liability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36702.33606 |
| September 22, 2016 | Solar Forcing in Our Climatic and Atmospheric Dynamics. Location, Location, Location (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.10303.20647 |
In the line of research presented in this blog it has been discussed the impact over energy flows derived from solar activity, land use and surface, atmospheric composition of GHGs and aerosols as well as the water cycle.
Based on the previous observations and assessments presented in this line of research, the state of the stratospheric circulation at both poles suggest that there is no need to have sudden warming process at stratospheric level in order to have a broken polar vortex. Such scenario was observed in October 2016 by the configuration of the polar vortex split at the NH without a stratospheric localised strong warming meanwhile the South pole was suffering a Sudden stratospheric warming without splitting the polar vortex.
But also, neither is required a broken polar Vortex in order to have displacements of cold polar masses of air into lower latitudes. Such configuration comes from the convective forcing triggered at lower altitudes by warm masses of air moving towards the poles in latitude and altitude.
This behaviour can be explained by considering the thermal properties of the atmosphere as a system capable of carrying energy across higher latitudes and altitudes without dissipation and in enough concentration to affect the configuration of the polar vortex from the bottom up.
Such capacity to keep momentum across latitudes and altitude conserving thermal energy can only be explained by an enhancement in the thermal properties of the atmosphere, which are directly related with its composition.
| August 6, 2015 | Atmospheric Composition and Thermal Conductivity. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) |
| April 6, 2016 | Atmospheric Dynamics, GHG’s, Thermal Conductivity and Polar Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.33911.32167 |
| November 25, 2016 | Atmospheric Thermal Conductance (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) |
Throughout my line of research I suggest that there is one approach which is able to unify all events in a single principle. The incorporation of energy into the atmosphere is shaping the atmospheric dynamics we see affecting the behaviour of currents, storms, rain rates, lightning events, wind regimes and temperature variations.
The atmosphere might have trespassed a tipping point absorbing energy making to tremble its previous structural configuration in Latitude and Altitude.
The constant contact of warm masses of air from Low and Mid-Latitudes with those from polar latitudes has worn off the strength of the Polar Jet Stream. Such circumstance has allowed the intrusion of warm masses of air into higher latitudes and altitudes, increasing atmospheric mixing dynamics. These convective intrusions are fuelled by the energy carried within water vapour, inducing the displacements of other colder masses of air in altitude and latitude, increasing the mixing ratio between otherwise compartmentalized parts of the atmosphere.
Such circumstance has allowed the atmosphere to spread the energy carried by water vapour from Mid Latitudes into Polar Latitudes (Arctic latitudes), being able of holding more energy than before since it is not dissipated into their surroundings when moving across latitudes.
This scenario has induced a trans-Arctic interconnectivity between oceanic basins which has happened with and without the need for a strong sign of the ENSO. Therefore, this would suggest that exchange of masses of air between the Mid low latitudes with the Arctic, through the Polar Jet Stream, is the dominant driver in atmospheric circulation defining the behaviour of equatorial winds. But also, the configuration of the NH Polar Vortex.
Altogether the research here presented points to a new scenario in atmospheric dynamics in which the Arctic circulation, previously isolated from Subtropical influence by the Polar Jet Stream, has become open to be involved in the atmospheric dynamics for the Pacific and Atlantic basins. This new interconnection will affect the atmospheric dynamics around the whole North Hemisphere. But also, by being our atmosphere a close system, subsidiary, such alteration would affect dynamics at the Equator and due to symmetric compensation between Hemispheres, moreover into the Southern Hemisphere.
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The Anthropogenic Link
As a biologist myself I find intriguing to see that our environment is predominately not described in biological terms.
Einstein made it very clear, our environment is a relative proportion of free energy and fixed energy in mass. There is one process in our system fixing E into mass, and one releasing E from mass. The “relative efficiency” of both processes is what is defining the behaviour of our thermodynamic environment.
There is an interference from human activities changing the composition and structure of the three phases of the environment:
- solid; land cover and use affects albedo and changes in evapotranspiration rates due to biotic disruptions on wild population functionality,
From May 7, 2015 publication Domesticating Nature. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36812.51848
- the liquid phase through alterations over the water cycles, distribution of water bodies, and humidity of soils as well as affecting circulation patterns due to coastal deterioration and deformation, but also, indirectly due to alterations in the composition of the inert and biotic matter in the Oceans due to pollution and modifications in acidification and salinity related with atmospheric composition and thermal properties.
- and gaseous phase due to alterations in the composition of the atmosphere from GHGs as well as aerosols, altogether affecting its thermodynamic behaviour.
The deviation from equilibrium of those conditions disrupt the perpetuation of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in the micro and macro ecosystem.
The definitive link between human activities and atmospheric dynamics is under constant discussionsince climatic developments are mainly approached from the field of physics.
However, the direct link between Anthropogenic activities and climatic developments are found in biological terms with thermodynamic implications:
Human activity has reduced CxHxOx compounds and increased free CxOx+HxOx.
Furthermore, anthropogenic activities release Energyfrom breaking structures (C-C) while biochemical processes assimilate energy fixing it into stable structures (CxHxOx).
Anthropogenic activity is simultaneously, releasing energy from a biochemically fixed state into the Planetary System’s Pool, at the same time that, it adds thermoactice compounds as CO2 and H2O. But furthermore, through this activity of constant transformational and processing, human activities are also debilitating the functionality of the biochemical processes capable of absorbing such perturbation, the endogenous ecosystems.
Einstein and his developments were mainly applied in physics due to the use that it was made of his work with the aim to manipulate energy in times of conflict, or to understand space. The equation is simple E=mc2. The language of physics has dominated the discussion over physical developments since then and it has been established as the logical translation of climatic developments. However, in the current times, the role of scientific understanding demands to move beyond the barriers of language, either between semantic cultural languages and between disciplines.
Being myself a Biologist involved in Atmospheric dynamics applying physics to explain such a complex subject as it is climatic evolution might seem like the tale of the child claiming that the Emperor has no clothes.
And yet, it seems to me evident that a thermodynamic system as it is our planet, can not scape from the most basic and powerful understanding of our contemporary scientific evolution. If E=MC2, and the anthropogenic activity is increasing the transformation of M into Energy in the system (from burning Mass from fossils and vegetable components, as well as by liberating other forms of energy such as gravimetric in Dams, Solar, transformation of raw materials, etc,) such transformation rate will move the balance in the thermodynamic behaviour of the whole system, and the rate of such deviation from equilibrium will be related with the speed at which the transformation rate between E/M is performed: M>(c)2
________Weather, Climate, energy, Environment and Man – Conclusions_________
| March 23, 2017 | Final Review in Progress. March 2017. From ENSO to Scientific Thinking by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.33915.82726 |
The mere identification of seeing: numbers of trees decreased over 46% from wild ecosystems being affected through time due to agriculture, increased levels of urbanization, deforestation, same for soil degradation, decrease in O2 conc, and an increase in GHG, can not be left out of the equation when considering what it is and what it is not “natural variability”, and the future expected for our thermodynamic planetary system.
Our planet is getting fat on GHG, lacking O2, space to grow natural ecosystems and capacity to fix and store energy. Biology integrates all components in an ecosystem, yet it is missing in climatology assessments.
The main conclusion from the present study researching synergistic interactions between all transformations seen over the Liquid, Gaseous and solid phases of our global Environment indicates that anthropogenic activity is forcing our environment into A System Becoming Dominated By Free Energy. (pdf Registered at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18509.13289)
Our Planet is made from the combination of all the organisms in a given area and the abiotic elements which affect them. An ecosystem is an open system because it can exchange energy or materials with other ecosystems. Earth is a closed system with respect to nutrients and chemicals, but open with respect to energy. There is an underestimated synergistic relationship between biogeochemical energy flows and those identified in weather patterns and atmospheric dynamics. For too many years it has been considered that the Earth is a garden populated by “elements” offering colourful pleasure and comfort. In fact, the biochemical processes undertaken by our ecosystems function as the most advanced piece of technology known by Humans, responsible for the quality of our air, waters and soils, as much as the sole and unique mechanism capable of interacting with the thermodynamic pressure imposed by the constant exposure of the planet to Sun’s radiation. Until we see the real function of biological processes as climate regulators we will not realise in how much trouble we are.
The biotic component of our environmental system is the only one capable of interacting against thermodynamic entropy, against instability. And for as long as Human activity can not replicate such mechanisms in equilibrium with the resources consumed, it might be time to think about domesticating Human Activities instead of following the obsession for Domesticating Natural Behaviour and Geoengineer our Weather.
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________Overall Conclusions________
An increase in the amount of energy being in “free” state means that kinetic processes will increasingly dominate thermodynamic processes, inducing a transition in our Seasonal and Climatic regimes from being driven by Orbital Positioning to be driven by more erratic Kinetic processes. (see related analysis)
Examples of processes releasing ENERGY FROM ANTHROPOGENIC ACTIVITIES
From previous publication “Domesticating Nature” (2015)
Atmospheric Oxygen Levels
Atmospheric Oxygen Levels are Decreasing Oxygen levels are decreasing globally due to fossil-fuel burning. The changes are too small to have an impact on human health, but are of interest to the study of climate change and carbon dioxide. These plots show the atmospheric O2 concentration relative to the level around 1985. The observed downward trend amounts to 19 ‘per meg’ per year. This corresponds to losing 19 O2 molecules out of every 1 million O2 molecules in the atmosphere each year.
Scripps O2 Global Oxygen Measurements The Scripps O2 Program measures changes in atmospheric oxygen levels from air samples collected at stations around the world. This sampling network provides a global and hemispheric perspective on oxygen variability. The Scripps O2 Program is based at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at La Jolla, California and is under the direction of Professor Ralph Keeling.
_____________Imagery and Methodology_________
Nowadays, there are many divisions between disciplines due to the isolated nature of their specific language and methodologies. I might not use the right vocabulary for all the fields which I discuss, or the right data or the right reasoning. But when nobody is able to offer a consensus over what is going on, I wonder, what is right this days?.
The line of research presented in this blog describes a scenario where things happen for a reason, and where there are reasons for things to happen. No model offers that much. Meanwhile “reasons” explain probabilities, models use “probabilities” to let you figure out the reasons.
After leaving months, even years of time to expose my conclusions for public discussion and review, once those have no faced any criticism or arguments refuting their value, I create a pdf file and a DOI publishing them at my profile in Researchgate. In order to maintain their genuineness and legitimate innovative nature, I keep its original state so those can be compared with any copy made by any third party at any time. For your own references and review over its originality over time with respect to other publications via scientific papers and/or news reports, you can compare the publications at the blog and researchgate with the records archived:
- at the web.archive.org site http://web.archive.org/web/*/diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com
- ResearchGate profile https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Diego_Fdez-Sevilla
- LinkedIn Public shares and re-shares testing validation over time https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/diego-fdez-sevilla-phds-research-reach/
- Full Index of Analyses and Timeline https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com
- AGU: https://www.linkedin.com/groups/2196290/2196290-5986214897078272003
- NOAA: https://www.linkedin.com/groups/156873/156873-5986214921963077634
_2019 Validation over Real Time Developments _
In research what it is relevant it is not always what it is New, but what it doesn´t get old. One stage of research comes when looking into offering something New; New data, New interpretations, New methods, making “the News”, being the First … And then, once the “New” has been offered, it is all about confirmation, re-evaluation, validation, review and application. In my line of research, at one stage I have offered New interpretations on climatic developments adopting New points of view addressing New synergistic interactions delivering New Conclusions and Implications in weather patterns, atmospheric circulation and biotic performance. In a following stage I have re-shared all those previous “New assessments” to be contrasted against real time developments been unfolded in the next years. In 2014 I was told by a lead scientist in climatic developments Prof. Jennifer Francis: “The topic you’ve written about is extremely complicated and many of your statements have not yet been verified by peer-reviewed research.” I was challenged for a deeper understanding of the state of the research, knowledge of atmospheric dynamics and analyses supporting my statements.
Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Reply to Prof. Jennifer Francis (February 2015) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1975.7602/1
After 200+ analyses 2014-18, have I done enough?
This year 2018/19 the progression of the climatic dynamics seen show to support the conclusions discussed throughout all the analyses performed in the line of research presented.
- The ENSO is not a driver of convective forcing over the NH,
- Convective forcing from Mid-latitudinal towards the Arctic circulation has wear off the gradients of temperature generating a strong Polar Jet Stream.
- Arctic warming occurs through atmospheric intrusions from Mid Latitudes,
- The collapse of the Polar Jet Stream has opened Arctic circulation to Mid-Latitudinal circulation intrusions allowing Trans-Arctic circulation between Pacific and Atlantic Basins.
- The global Temperature measured is the resultant of mixing patterns in the atmosphere,
- Therefore an increase in mixing dynamics creates a pause in temperature raise,
- An increase in mixing dynamics show an increase in convective forcing,
- Convective forcing is the work resultant from an increase in atmospheric energy being incorporated in free state,
- The incorporation and spread of energy in free state into the atmosphere is carried and released by water vapour
- An increase of water vapour in atmospheric circulation requires an increase in the thermal capacity of the atmosphere
- The process of enhancing the thermal capacity of the atmosphere comes by increasing the concentration of GHGs, conc of aerosols and land surface albedo.
- Several processes carried out by human activityare linked with the previous assessment: human activity reduces the capacity of the biotic environment to fix energy from free state into inert state by reducing biochemical processing and storage (CxHxOx photosynthesis and biomass) and increases atmospheric concentrations of GHGs by releasing CO2 and H2O into the atmosphere. Also, land use and covertransformations increase albedo, industrial activities increase aerosols and the compartmentalization of water affects water cycles.
- In a thermodynamic system the energetic pool is the sum of the amount of energy in free statecapable of doing work, and the energy fixed in an inert form as part of mass. The amount of energy in free state is proportional to the amount of energy fixed in inert form as mass (E=mc2). The release of energy from its inert form increases the amount of energy in free state to do work. Energy is not created, neither destroyed. The transformation of the three phases of the environment forced by human activities, gaseous (atmosphere), liquid (water cycle) and solid (land use and cover), increases the amount of energy in free state capable of promoting all forms of work; convective forcing, strong winds, solid and liquid precipitation, lightning, dust storms, heat waves, cold displacements, and ultimately, and increase in atmospheric mixing in altitude and across latitudes.
Throughut the Winter 2019, cold “and warm” dynamics at tropospheric and stratospheric levels have happened simultaneously. And if there is a progression it comes by seeing through the seasons warm temperatures moving north followed by a stratospheric Warming process which promotes a weak Polar Vortex configuration.
Despite all the theories available my interpretation is simple about what is happening, between global warming and global cooling we are living under a process of global mixing, promoted by an increase in the atmospheric energy pool, using water vapour as the carrier of such energetic extra thanks to an enhanced thermal capacity generated from increasing GHGs, Albedo and Aerosols. The origin of this imbalance in the energetic pool driving the thermodynamic system can be associated with changes in the composition, structure, location and concentration of the components integrating the Planetary system. Human activities can be associated with all those changes.
Would you like for this line of research to keep going, please consider to nominate it for an award for funds at
BBVA Fundation. FRONTIERS OF KNOWLEDGE AWARDS
https://www.frontiersofknowledgeawards-fbbva.es/conditions/
orcid.org/0000-0001-8685-0206
Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. 
