Follow-up on previous assessments 17Sept 2018. About resilient Florence, super typhoon at West Pacific and Atlantic northward Tropical storm Helene. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.
By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. CV english and español. Resume. Interdisciplinary Skills applied in the line of research presented.- Index for all analyses published. – Shares and Feedback at LinkedIn
Publication also available in pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.32512.48641
Within the line of research that I have offered there is an scenario in which things are plausible with a reason. In this scenario it has become a reality to expect heat waves reaching northern latitudes as well as an increase in lightning, storminess, and strong wind episodes. All of which is part of an increase in turbulence due to mixing patterns. With these mixing turbulence there is a link between low mid and high latitudes. The streamlines described by condensible water shows direction (north) as well as the disrupture between thermal compartmentalization in the 3 dimensions. In the scenario presented, the synchronicity for hurricanes and cyclones at opposite faces of the Earth, cold front over west Europe, monsoon at India and high temp in the Arctic havge been highlighted as part of the same energetic motion, and resultant of a driver stronger than variations in SST. That is an increase in the atmospheric energetic pool in the form of free state. A mixing dynamic creating fluctuations in temperature patterns, and yet, denoting a constant increase in kinetic displayments.
The drainage of the “Arctic cold reservoir” is a process which started with a timid seasonal waving on the Polar Jet Stream.
This process has become more extreme by the years, beginning to show as the collapse of a wall under the pressure on a tide gaining strength.
Convective forcing from mid latitudes is invading the north pole forcing the displacement of cold masses into foreign territories. What began as a process marked by seasonal pulses, this year 2018 is showing to maintain momentum throughout seasons.
The drainage of the Arctic reservoir showed cold blasts in Winter 2017/8 over locations reviving the argument of revisiting post glaciations, while the Arctic was getting anomalously warm. Afterwards, heat waves arrived and all sides got into the “hothouse” of “comforting” past predictions. And yet, meanwhile anomalous cold blasts arrive in August into Asia, Europe and parts of North America.
These swings in the “objective” debate over climatic developments is moving towards a madhouse driven by a fight where the one-eyed tries to rule over the blind. Now is time for hurricane season, a localised event which in terms of atmospheric circulation is the trace left by a world wide pattern. As we speak (17 Sept 2018) whilst we look at the Equator amazed by white elephants, the Arctic is being drained by mid latitudinal intrusion over the Pacific, releasing cold atmospheric icebergs over Canada.
In a simile, it is not the white trace left by a plane what it makes the noise but the plane in front moving the air.
September 14, 2016 Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.19874.63684 https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/2016/09/14/between-global-cooling-and-global-warming-there-is-global-mixing-by-diego-fdez-sevilla-ph-d/
Florence, Mangkhut and Helene
Do you remember the names: Matthew, Chaba and Nicole?
While we keep fresh the names Florence, Mangkhut and Helene I would like to re-cap on a previous analysis shared in Oct 2016 in order to contrast its validity with current developments. This analysis encapsulates the work done in previous years and its application to understand the developments in the ITCZ zone, the origin of tropical systems and their behaviour, paths, resilience and cargo.
All as part of a global pattern being developed in real time and further discussed in the following publications to date. That is an increase in the atmospheric energetic pool in the form of free state. A mixing dynamic creating fluctuations in temperature patterns, and yet, denoting a constant increase in kinetic displayments.
If you are not familiarised with the previous work I hope you give it the opportunity to be taken under consideration. See full index 2013-2018 and overall conclusions at diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.
20th sept 2018 conditions of MSLP and V-Wind to be contrasted with relevant previous assessment from Oct 2016:
|October 19, 2016||Energy in our environmental systems. Follow-up on previous assessments. Matthew, Chaba and Nicole (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.16774.37443
Similar patterns and developments are occurring as those assessed in the animations and posts shared in the previous years: Arctic dynamics are dominated by mid-latitude intrusions, where those generate displacements of Arctic masses of air into mid latitudes. Such events create a trans-Arctic interconnectivity between Atlantic and Pacific basins, as well as influence the developments at the ITCZ.
Altogether, the general dynamics of the atmosphere would point to an increase in turbulence allowing for an expansion in altitude and latitude for the mixing ratio of different masses of air.
Accordingly, it has been discussed in this blog that such scenario would reduce the gradients of energy between atmospheric events and their surroundings.
Thus, low pressures and high pressure events would be more resilient since their surroundings would not allow for them to dissipate easily their energy. The expression of this interpretation would be seen in the form of blocking patterns and storms hovering and travelling through days over the Pacific and Atlantic.
The trans-Arctic interconnectivity between oceanic basins has happened with and without the need for a strong sign of the ENSO.
Therefore, this would suggest that exchange of masses of air between the Mid low latitudes with the Arctic, through the Polar Jet Stream, is the dominant driver in atmospheric circulation defining the behaviour of equatorial winds.
All those patterns would be fuelled by the incorporation of water vapour into an atmosphere with its energetic conductivity capacities enhanced due to an increase of GHGs and aerosols as well as by an imbalance in the energy flows part of the entire environment in all of its phases.
All the recent past and present events seem to confirm this approach and support the assessments shared throughout the line of research presented in this blog since 2013.
… see full analysis following the link at the title.
Current Conditions Sept 2018
Arctic Conditions 17 Sept 2018
North Atlantic Basin. Europe
Next Animations to be seen in reference to previous assessment:
|June 29, 2018||Seasonal Transitions under a New Climatic Scenario. by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18385.22881|
Recap on previous analyses
- Related Animation from previous Assessment Discussing Climatic Teleconnections. Follow Up On My Previous Research (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) October 21, 2015
Previous Analyses addressing current dynamics.
The assessments presented in this line of research are not weather reports but interpretations over emerging dynamics, offering arguments and discussion addressing the lack of understanding acknowledged in academia in order to identify mechanisms giving sense to data.
(Cohen et al, 17 AUGUST 2014 DOI:10.1038/NGEO2234 “other studies on related topics, especially other observational studies, share some of the same shortcomings: lack of statistical significance, causality unclear, incomplete mechanistic understanding, and so on”)
Jennifer Francis replied to me in November 2014, “many of your statements had not yet been verified by peer-reviewed research.” What she did not say was that, implicitly in her review, there were no previous peer reviewed publications available to refute my assessments. Which means that my assessments offer unsettled and unprecedented insights applied in science.
Ultimately, under the pressure from developing a line of research without economical or institutional support, and under the absence of peer’s support, the best review I can make to validate my assessments has to be throughout the test of time.
In 2013 I began to publish assessments over climatic developments, following 4 years of weekly analyses linking real time conditions with arguments explaining those. Such activity generated a seasonal agenda linking atmospheric dynamics and particular periods of the year as part of a pattern. The main conclusion reached has been to face a pattern of change in the structure of the atmosphere and its dynamics due to an increase in atmospheric mixing, in altitude and latitude, between Equatorial and Mid-Latitudes with Arctic circulation. Neither “global” warming or cooling. Instead convective forcing dominates as an expression of the power behind an increase in atmospheric energy in free state.
While models are used to build possible scenarios on a 30 year period, the question left unaddressed is what to do about the present one. Focusing our worries onto a distant future it is easy to forget that first we need to walk the walk. And most importantly, that by leaving unattended our present we are also playing a role shaping any possible future scenario. Whatever the discussion is about multiples future scenarios, we should be able to, at least, define our present scenario in order to work with it. In my research, and throughout more than 200 analyses, I have worked in this direction.
I have described our present scenario based on consolidating theoretical arguments with real time developments. I do not know any other scenario described and published able to do that. The work already published should represent a good standing point describing a scenario to watch out and, apply those assessments to understand the current and near future developments.
Current dynamics throughout 2018 seem to support previous conclusions allowing the appearance of energetic discharges higher in latitude (Rain-Japan, Heat-Norway, …) and resilient in time (lows at Pacific basin and Atlantic Florence).
The following are extracts from previous assessments addressing current dynamics. You can read the full analysis following the links in the titles.
- June 10, 2016 The Butterfly Effect on Arctic Circulation. Peer review verification on previous assessments (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
Arctic and Mid-Latitude Circulation.
If we consider that a butterfly can have an effect over atmospheric circulation we have to consider the interconnections between all parts of the system which generates our climate. And many of those considerations come from reassessing the impact from seeing basic principles playing with new magnitudes derived from the constant change in the composition of our environment in the solid, liquid and gaseous phases (land, atmosphere and water cycles).
One particular point of unsettled science highlighted in my research moves in opposite directionality from that interpreted by the Arctic Amplification theory.
The latest theory defends that the increase in temperature at Arctic latitudes is amplifying the effect from a global warming over mid-latitudinal circulation. My approach applies a new perspective to purpose that the atmospheric situation over the Arctic is not amplifying any process, due to its low energetic pool. Instead, the Arctic circulation is “passively” absorbing the energy carried under the influence of mid-latitudinal pressure due to hadley cell’s deformation.
Such mechanism is independent from a minor influence coming from affecting the conditions of albedo at the Arctic. In fact, albedo affects material getting radiated with the capacity to accumulate and re-emit energy. But the Arctic has an atmosphere usually dry due to its low temperatures. Therefore, the conditions of the Arctic atmosphere defining its thermal properties rely in its majority over the amount of moisture carried capable to absorb energy.
My theory (ref Oct 21, 2014, and ref Feb 2, 2015) is that the increasing warming over mid-latitudes is using water vapour as the carrier of energy incorporating it over the whole atmosphere and into Arctic latitudes. Such mechanism will increase the energy pool at the Arctic, what in other words can be seeing as an increase in temperature but also affects the resilience shown by Lows and Highs to dissipate its energy.
From the publication:
What I propose with my hypothesis are the mechanisms inducing to Arctic Amplification as a side effect of a wider principle. That it is a symptom and not a causation.
What I am trying to highlight in my theory are the possible mechanisms which would explain: changes in albedo which support Arctic Amplification, early snowfalls in central Asia, Arctic ice cover meltdown and oceanic increases in salinity and ultimately, the origin of atmospheric blocking patterns and the pause in T raise unified in single principle: Increasing conc. of CO2 and water vapour induce a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in the global atmospheric circulation, not only the Arctic.
From the publication:
The theory of Arctic amplification applies the point of view of seeing the temperatures raising in the Arctic as a half full scenario. However, by applying the interpretation of assuming that the Arctic is one of the locations with an atmospheric volume with lowest energy content, we should look at it by how empty used to be, thus “half empty”.
The different interpretation between both scenarios bring into question the directionality on the triggers driving climatic and atmospheric events. Is it the Arctic affecting Mid-latitudinal circulation or is the other way around? So my approach into this question is simple: Where is the energy required to drive atmospheric circulation coming from? And the answer is held in the composition of the air that carry that which we measure as temperature. Albedo can make the ice to melt but can not warm up dry air. If the temperature at the Arctic circulation increases is because it carries a molecular composition which carries and retains energy. And since high temperatures over the Arctic melt ice and reduce albedo, there is less energy being radiated into the atmosphere so the temperature measured over the Arctic has to come from circulation introduced by mid-latitudinal intrusions. But that is just the beginning of a process resultant from seeing mid latitudinal circulation invading Arctic circulation due to an overload on its energy pool. Moreover, if my take over the present developments is accurate, what comes after is what will make things interesting.
Recent developments to be considered in combination with previous assessment
- Equatorial Dynamics. A conversation between Joaquin and Matthew (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Posted on October 7, 2018
A Conversation Between Joaquin and Matthew
The conditions surrounding their development share patterns and atmospheric conditions
And those patterns and conditions have been previously addressed in this research
|September 8, 2015||A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla).|
|January 13, 2016||Atmospheric Dynamics And Shapes (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)|
|September 14, 2016||Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)|
12 September 2018. Also shared at LinkedIn feed Activity (link here)
Convective forcing from mid latitudes is invading the north pole forcing the displacement of cold masses into foreign territories. What began as a process marked by seasonal pulses, this year 2018 is showing to maintain momentum throughout seasons. In 2013 I began to publish assessments over climatic developments, following 4 years of weekly analyses linking real time conditions with arguments explaining those. Such activity generated a seasonal agenda linking atmospheric dynamics and particular periods of the year as part of a pattern. The main conclusion reached has been to face a pattern of change in the structure of the atmosphere and its dynamics due to an increase in atmospheric mixing, in altitude, and latitude with Arctic circulation. No global warming or cooling. In order to evaluate the validity of previous assessments I share this publication to be contrasted with current developments as an exercise of open review. Anecdotal evidence or scientific proof?
Previous related Analysis: Atmospheric Circulation and the Mixing Zone. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) *- Posted on May 26, 2016 DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34019.04645
The pattern seen over the Iberian peninsula is a replica from previous years, with the difference in its intensity. A pattern which affects also the developments in the Itzc.
Related info on weather developments associated:
Weekly pattern overview across Europe (Sept 3 – 10th, 2018)By SWE | Mesoscale Discussion | 03 September 2018
Here is an overview of the pattern evolution this week. Early September across our continent will be characterized by ridging over northern Europe while some more dynamic weather is expected further south across central and southern Europe. The overall pattern will bring above normal temperatures across much of our continent while below normal temperatures are likely over western Europe and the Iberian peninsula where troughs and frontal systems will be ongoing.
Some studies rely heavily on numbers. This methodology brings many restrictions. The most common comes with the ever challenging question of what it is what it should be in the X axis of any correlation. Is warm air keeping SST warm in the Arctic or the way around? Previous analyses presented in the current line of research point to atmospheric mid-latitudinal convective forcing as the major player, and current developments seem to support previous conclusions:
To be contrasted with previous assessments:
- November 14, 2014 Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2500.0488
- November 17, 2016 Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.24688.35848
- December 17, 2016 Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20129.81760
- February 28, 2018 Arctic Warming as a Result of Convective Forcing by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Pdf DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34551.73125
- June 26, 2015 The scope of Environmental Science and scientific thought. From Thought-driven to Data-driven, from Critical Thinking to Data Management. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla): DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2007.0161
30 August 2018. Also shared at LinkedIn feed Activity link here
The Hurricane Lane arriving at Hawaii was something plausible, foreseeable and eminent. And even further than that, it might become frequent. Suggestive examples and anecdotal evidence or scientific “proof”? Image: August 2018 NH
Publication: Statistical Significance and The Scary Side of Being Mild (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Posted on October 9, 2017
Within the line of research that I have offered there is an scenario in which things are plausible with a reason. In this scenario it has become a reality to expect heat waves reaching northern latitudes as well as an increase in lightning, storminess, and strong wind episodes. All of which is part of an increase in turbulence due to mixing patterns. In the scenario presented, the synchronicity for the hurricane at Hawaii, cyclones around Japan, cold front over west Europe, monsoon at India and high temp in the Arctic has been highlighted as part of the same energetic motion, and resultant of a driver stronger than variations in sst; Convective forcing keeps dominating atmospheric circulation (ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.23043.20002)
In my line of research I have applied the idea of that a climate is made by the weather events occurring, like a forest is made by the trees populating it. If anyone wants to read more about it you can find it here:
*-Talking about climate. May 12, 2015 https://wp.me/p403AM-yO
I believe that Temperature has been a very bad parameter used to understand our atmospheric circulation when there is not consideration on that Temperature is just one form of energy. Energy which does not disappear when Temperature decreases, it gets only transformed and transported.
*-Climate. Looking at the forest for the trees April 9, 2015. https://wp.me/p403AM-wN
We can use weather patterns, being considered all together, to create a profile describing a planetary climatic system… When looking at our climate, we can try to understand it by looking at it as a whole, but also, we can look at it as the result coming from combining what represents the requirements to allow the viability for each single meteorological event, like looking at the forest for the trees.”
Follow-up in relation with the analyses presented in the blog. See also www.severe-weather.eu for an update on current developments.
The following publications help to extend the description of a pattern involving the three dimensions of the atmosphere plus the 4th dimension (time) assessed by synchronicity and repetition throughout the years.
- Feb 2017. Polar Jet Stream and Atmospheric Dynamics. Follow-up over Past and Present Conditions (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Posted on February 9, 2017 https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/2017/02/09/feb-2017-past-and-present/
- Equatorial Dynamics. A conversation between Joaquin and Matthew (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Posted on October 7, 2016 https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/2016/10/07/a-conversation-between-joaquin-and-matthew-by-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd/
- October 21, 2015 Discussing Climatic Teleconnections. Follow Up On My Previous Research (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2962.7605 https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/2015/10/21/discussing-climatic-teleconnections-follow-up-on-my-previous-research-by-diego-fdez-sevilla/
- Seasonal Transitions under a New Climatic Scenario. by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. Posted on June 29, 2018 https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/2018/06/29/seasonal-transitions-under-a-new-climatic-scenario-by-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd/
Some other Related Analyses:
- * SST Anomalies and Heat Waves. Are They Not All Just Heat Displacements? (by D Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) October 16, 2015 https://wp.me/p403AM-EX
- New insides on old concepts (by D Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) December 23, 2015 https://wp.me/p403AM-P5
- Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by D Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) March 22, 2016 https://wp.me/p403AM-X7
- * Atmospheric Dynamics. Foreseeable, At The Moment. (by D Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) July 19, 2016 https://wp.me/p403AM-16P
- * Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by D Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) December 17, 2016 https://wp.me/p403AM-1jd
- Convective Forcing Dominates Atmospheric Circulation NH (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Posted on May 23, 2018 https://wp.me/p403AM-1UH
Weather, Climate, Energy, Environment and Man
The question driving the whole debate on Climatic Deviations from “a Normal”, or Climatic Drift, focus most of the methodologies on temperature.
However I have followed a different approach in my analyses looking at Gradients of Energy in all its forms. That is why in 2014 I offered my thoughts as a theory of practical applications.
Energy fuels the work done by warm masses of air displacing colder masses of air in their path. That increases mixing patterns generating anomalies in temperature.
Behind an increase in the amount of work carried out by masses of air there is an increase in the energy fuelling such dynamics. Energy can only be transferred, not created or destroyed. So more work means more energy in circulation. More energy in circulation can only be sustained by a substance carrying it. Either if we consider that the energy driving anomalies comes from the Sun or from the Oceans, the carrier has to be in the atmosphere in order for the energy to produce work. And the body loosing heat cools down.
E.g. A corridor of wind over the Arctic is triggered by a conversion of Temperature into work, convection and advection, which are the result of mixing masses of air. As I have published in previous analyses, such Trans-Arctic connection between Atlantic and Pacific Basins is part of a pattern increasing the mixing ratio between masses of air otherwise separated by thermal compartmentalization, like the Polar Jet Stream. An increase in the dispersion of energetic forms have different outcomes, one of which it would be a temporary reduction in the average temperature resultant from the mixing between Cold (Arctic) and warm (Mid-Latitude) masses of air as well as in altitude (SSW).
Subsequently, “temperature” is less reliable than looking at “work” seen even in the “mild” events.
In the framework presented throughout the line of research published in this blog (and researchgate) it has been considered “Climate” as being defined by the amount of energy free to do work. In other words, energy free to promote weather events. Accordingly, in my research I define Climate by the amount and state of energy in circulation, and Weather by the use of this energy.
Consequently, with the definition applied for Climate and Weather, my definition of Climate Drift is:
“the deviation from equilibrium of the conditions allowing the perpetuity of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in a micro and macro ecosystem. This situation can be due to changes in any component of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes can be either a change in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality or rates in the flows of energy pre-established OR/AND the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components/forces and energy sinks or sources in any part of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance.”
In my assessments I have defended that the increase in the energy pool at mid-latitudes would ultimately create an scenario with an overcharged atmosphere. That would reduce the contrasts with which to create and maintain stability in the structure required to condense energy in singular events, like hurricanes. Giving more relevance to the single contrast between Ocean/continental masses. At the same time, the opening of the Arctic circulation through a weak Jet Stream would reduce the pressure in the containment absorbing the condensation of energy at mid-latitudes, expanding into a new volume.
Accordingly, hadley circulation gets affected (see also) generating new patterns of turbulence at the ITCZ as well as it gets influenced Arctic mixing zones with lower latitudes.
In this scenario cyclones are generated under an increase in the mixing ratio of an unstable atmospheric circulation dominated by kinetic energy transferred by water vapour thanks to GHGs, and immersed in an overcharged atmosphere with no place where to diffuse its energy, becoming resilient as long as they stay over the ocean. So they endure like a piece of an ice rock in cold water.
Recent thunderstorms occurring in the Iberian Peninsula (June 2018) show to deliver an increased amount of precipitation, with a very active electric activity and persistent in duration. All the symptoms expected under the scenario described in the line of research presented.
About Sea Surface Temperatures, my assessments take SST as subsequent conditions driven by wind shear. So the interaction between masses of air in circulation allowes or inhibits SST developments. Once the scenario is built on SST this becomes a “battle field” conditioning the subsequent interaction between the following masses of air and the characteristics of the “grounds” where the game will be played (sort of speak). Like the effect of the ice conditions in an ice hockey match.
El Niño is an event which happens in a very small portion of the Earth, it is related to the temperature of a very thin layer of the Ocean in depth, a small percentage of the area occupied by the whole Oceanic masses, and even smaller when it is integrated in the multidimensional space combining Ocean and atmosphere. It is kind of intriguing to think why it has been so easy to conclude that such small portion of the entire system is driving it as a whole. It is like considering that the flowering of plants drives the seasons. Similarly it could be said about using SST at the Arctic to justify altogether; the lack of ice, warmer temperatures at tropospheric level and even at stratospheric level. There is not enough energy in the SST of such small area as it is the Arctic to justify all those convective dynamics.
(March 22, 2016 Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1968.5521).
Statistical Significance. The Scary Side of Being Mild (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.21934.61767
In my research I have been very persistent trying to highlight how much relevance it is given to a small area in size and depth driving global circulation as it is the SST at the Eq Pacific while an area of the same size and even more depth could be identified in the Amazon or by the change suffered in Land cover by agriculture at global scale.
We have to consider that SST are measured in the 5 or less m of the Ocean meanwhile Forests can occupy more than 15 meters in depth. And both are sources of the latent heat carried out in the atmosphere which fuels convective dynamics dominating intrusions over the Arctic.
Analyses which I published in my line of research some time ago studying the impact from changes in Land cover over atmospheric dynamics:
- April 23, 2015 Matching Features Between Land Surface and Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20035.30247. https://wp.me/p403AM-xK
- June 10, 2016 The Butterfly Effect on Arctic Circulation. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) https://wp.me/p403AM-12H
The analyses performed in my line of research describe a Climatic Drift, from pre-established atmospheric conditions strongly compartmentalised in Altitude and Latitude, towards a Climatic Regime characterised by an instability originated by patterns of Trans-latitudinal and Vertical mixing. An increase in atmospheric motion inducing sudden and extreme changes in atmospheric conditions generating weather events with abnormal properties for a particular location, throughout latitudes, longitudes and altitudes.
Einstein and his developments were mainly applied in physics due to the use that it was made of his work with the aim to manipulate energy in times of conflict, or to understand space. The equation is simple E=mc2. The language of physics has dominated the discussion over physical developments since then and it has been established as the logical translation of climatic developments. However, in the current times, the role of scientific understanding demands to move beyond the barriers of language, either between semantic cultural languages and between disciplines.
Being myself a Biologist involved in Atmospheric dynamics applying physics to explain such a complex subject as it is climatic evolution might seem like the tale of the child claiming that the Emperor has no clothes.
And yet, it seems to me evident that a thermodynamic system as it is our planet, can not scape from the most basic and powerful understanding of our contemporary scientific evolution. If E=MC2, and the anthropogenic activity is increasing the transformation of M into Energy in the system (from burning Mass from fossils and vegetable components, as well as by liberating other forms of energy such as gravimetric in Dams, Solar, transformation of raw materials, etc,) such transformation rate will move the balance in the thermodynamic behaviour of the whole system, and the rate of such deviation from equilibrium will be related with the speed at which the transformation rate between E/M is performed: M>(c)2
The main conclusion from more than 200 analyses and discussions researching synergistic interactions between all transformations seen over the Liquid, Gaseous and solid phases of our global Environment indicates that anthropogenic activity is forcing our environment into A System Becoming Dominated By Free Energy. (DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18509.13289)
The biotic component of our environmental system is the only one capable of interacting against thermodynamic entropy, against instability. And for as long as Human activity can not replicate such mechanisms in equilibrium with the resources consumed, it might be time to think about domesticating Human Activities instead of following the obsession for Domesticating Natural Behaviour and Geoengineer our Weather.
An increase in the amount of energy being in “free” state means that kinetic processes will increasingly dominate thermodynamic processes, inducing a transition in our Seasonal and Climatic regimes from being driven by Orbital Positioning to be driven by more erratic Kinetic processes.
After leaving months, even years of time to expose my conclusions for public discussion and review, once those have no faced any criticism or arguments refuting their value, I create a pdf file and a DOI publishing them at my profile in Researchgate. In order to maintain their genuineness and legitimate innovative nature, I keep its original state so those can be compared with any copy made by any third party at any time. For your own references and review over its originality over time with respect to other publications via scientific papers and/or news reports, you can compare the publications at the blog and researchgate with the records archived:
- at the web.archive.org site http://web.archive.org/web/*/diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com
- ResearchGate profile https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Diego_Fdez-Sevilla
- LinkedIn Public shares and re-shares testing validation over time https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/diego-fdez-sevilla-phds-research-reach/
- Full Index of Analyses and Timeline https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com
- AGU: https://www.linkedin.com/groups/2196290/2196290-5986214897078272003
- NOAA: https://www.linkedin.com/groups/156873/156873-5986214921963077634