The Arctic Conundrum. Follow-up on previous research by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD


The Arctic Conundrum. Follow-up on previous research by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD

22 Feb 2018                                     1st Aug 2018

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By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. CV english and español. Resume. Interdisciplinary Skills applied in the line of research presented.- Index for all analyses published. – Shares and Feedback at LinkedIn

Pdf available at ResearchGate with DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.15411.68640


The highest temperatures recorded around the world are not being defined by the angle of incidence from the Sun and Earth tilt. One of the strongest indications of such situation comes by the abnormal temperatures recorded over the Arctic in Feb and recent Aug 2018.

This situation has been foreseen and highlighted throughout the line of research that I have presented and I would like to revisit some publications in order to be validated against current developments:

*21 st Aug 2018. The Guardian: “Arctic’s strongest sea ice breaks up for first time on record”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/21/arctics-strongest-sea-ice-breaks-up-for-first-time-on-record

Diego Fdez-sevilla PhD Research Follow-up:

Arctic Amplification takes an assumption open for discussion: “sea ice acts as a barrier for the heat transport from the ocean to the atmosphere.” Actually, sea ice acts as a barrier for the heat transport *from the atmosphere to the ocean. The line of research offered taking Arctic SST as responsible for warming processes is not considering the thermodynamics behind changes in phase (liquid/solid/gas) and the difference between condensible and not condensible GHGs. Heat moves between locations AND phases. SST warming the atmosphere would loose heat, thus forming ice.

While models are used to build possible scenarios on a 30 year period, the question left unaddressed is what to do about the present one. Focusing our worries onto a distant future it is easy to forget that first we need to walk the walk. And most importantly, that by leaving unattended our present we are also playing a role shaping any possible future scenario. Whatever the discussion is about multiples future scenarios, we should be able to, at least, define our present scenario in order to work with it. In my research, and throughout more than 200 analyses, I have worked in this direction. I have described our present scenario based on consolidating theoretical arguments with real time developments. I do not know any other scenario described and published able to do that. The work already published should represent a good standing point describing a scenario to watch out and, apply those assessments to understand the current and near future developments.

Some previous analyses from the present line of research addressing atmospheric dynamics linking past, present and near future Arctic developments:

November 14, 2014 Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2500.0488
December 18, 2015 Climate and weather December 2015. Another Polar Vortex another Heat Wave? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.19966.48968
March 22, 2016 Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)  Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1968.5521
November 17, 2016 Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.24688.35848
December 17, 2016 Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20129.81760
February 9, 2017 Feb 2017. Polar Jet Stream and Atmospheric Dynamics. Follow-up over Past and Present Conditions (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36764.28802
February 28, 2018 Arctic Warming as a Result of Convective Forcing by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD  Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34551.73125
April 19, 2018 Climate, Weather and Energy. Using a Climatic Regime to explain Weather Events by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Researchgate DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.27923.58406
June 29, 2018 Seasonal Transitions under a New Climatic Scenario. by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. Pdf available DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18385.22881

2018_ Arctic developments in the media. The media conundrum.

27 Feb 2018 ___________________

Arctic warming: scientists alarmed by ‘crazy … – The Guardian

27 feb. 2018Record warmth in the Arctic this month could yet prove to be a freak occurrence, … Melting ice on the Chilkat river near Haines, Alaska, in winter.

13 Jun 2018 _______________

Antarctic ice melting faster than ever, studies show – The Guardian

13 jun. 2018Rate of melt has accelerated threefold in last five years and could contribute 25cm to sea-level rises without urgent action.

3 Ago 2018__________________________

Pollution is slowing the melting of Arctic sea ice, for now – The Guardian

3 ago. 2018 – Arctic sea ice loss is already bad news, and this research comes on top of it. It’s amazing to think that the loss could’ve been even faster, if it …

21 Ago 2018_______________

Arctic’s strongest sea ice breaks up for first time on … – The Guardian

3 days ago – One meteorologist described the loss of ice as “scary”. Others said it could force scientists to revise their theories about which part of the Arctic …
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Research Scope

Some people might like to know some background information about the experience and training that legitimize my analyses. Therefore in the page “About” I have included a section title Interdisciplinary Approach” offering some insights. Contact: d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com

I am aware of that in order to consider any value over such assessments, some people need to see them in a peer reviewed article published in a renown journal, due to the lack of institutional support, I am unable to bring my research into official channels of scientific journalism. Therefore, I expose my assessments in this blog trying to allow anyone to be the reviewer contrasting current developments with my arguments and conclusions, enabling Official Bodies and Established scientists to consider the value of my research despite its informal format. Funding and sponsorship of any size is needed to keep the activity behind the line of research presented. Please consider to make a donation or make your institution to get involved.

The assessments presented in this line of research are not weather reports but interpretations over emerging dynamics, offering arguments and discussion addressing the lack of understanding acknowledged in academia in order to identify mechanisms giving sense to data.

(Cohen et al, 17 AUGUST 2014 DOI:10.1038/NGEO2234 “other studies on related topics, especially other observational studies, share some of the same shortcomings: lack of statistical significance, causality unclear, incomplete mechanistic understanding, and so on”)

Jennifer Francis replied to me in November 2014, “many of your statements had not yet been verified by peer-reviewed research.” What she did not say was that, implicitly in her review, there were no previous peer reviewed publications available to refute my assessments. Which means that my assessments offer unsettled and unprecedented insights applied in science.

Ultimately, under the pressure from developing a line of research without economical or institutional support, and under the absence of peer’s support, the best review I can make to validate my assessments has to be throughout the test of time.

For 4 years I have been sharing assessments at weekly basis.

Such agenda has generated a calendar of publications linking assessments over atmospheric dynamics with particular periods of the year. It is my belief that altogether there is a pattern built between all those assessments and periods of time.

After leaving months, even years of time to expose my assessments for public discussion and review, once those have no faced any criticism or arguments refuting their value, I create a pdf file and a DOI publishing them at my profile in Researchgate.

In order to maintain their genuineness and legitimate innovative nature, I keep its original state so those can be compared with any copy made by any third party at any time. For your own references and review over its originality over time with respect to other publications via scientific papers and/or news reports, you can compare the publications at the blog and Researchgate with the records archived:

The conclusions reached after following the arguments presented throughout all the assessments carried out as part of the whole project can be summarised in the following publications (A brief discussion summary is found in a section below):

Climate variability and energy balance. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) At ResearchGate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.33706.11203 November 27, 2013
May 26, 2017 The CO2 Greening Effect Review. CO2 Makes Headlines To Grow Like Trees, Shaping Different Forests Offering Different Views (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.16286.33601
April 19, 2018 Climate, Weather and Energy. Using a Climatic Regime to explain Weather Events by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Researchgate DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.27923.58406

About Peer Review validations please read: July 6, 2016 Research From The Bench (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.))

Research Follow -Up

In order to maintain the continuity of the process of open review offered over my line of research through my blog, ResearchGate and at LinkedIn, throughout 2016 I have kept re-sharing previous assessments to be contrasted against following real-time ongoing developments.

In the following video you can see an example of the activity associated with this process of exposure and review seeking feedback from members of LinkedIn but also a broader community since the publications are accessed also freely from outside the platform.

In the following page you can look at all the publications exposed at LinkedIn on its original date of publication and also, the times same publications were re-shared in order to test their validity through time. By following the subsequent links you can also access to see the feedback generated.

Framework

Weather, Climate, Energy, Environment and Man


The question  driving the whole debate on Climatic Deviations from “a Normal”, or Climatic Drift, focus most of the methodologies on temperature.

However I have followed a different approach in my analyses looking at Gradients of Energy in all its forms. That is why in 2014 I offered my thoughts as a theory of practical applications.

Energy fuels the work done by warm masses of air displacing colder masses of air in their path. That increases mixing patterns generating anomalies in temperature.

Behind an increase in the amount of work carried out by masses of air there is an increase in the energy fuelling such dynamics. Energy can only be transferred, not created or destroyed. So more work means more energy in circulation. More energy in circulation can only be sustained by a substance carrying it. Either if we consider that the energy driving anomalies comes from the Sun or from the Oceans, the carrier has to be in the atmosphere in order for the energy to produce work. And the body loosing heat cools down.

E.g. A corridor of wind over the Arctic is triggered by a conversion of Temperature into work, convection and advection, which are the result of mixing masses of air. As I have published in previous analyses, such Trans-Arctic connection between Atlantic and Pacific Basins is part of a pattern increasing the mixing ratio between masses of air otherwise separated by thermal compartmentalization, like the Polar Jet Stream. An increase in the dispersion of energetic forms have different outcomes, one of which it would be a temporary reduction in the average temperature resultant for the mixing between Cold (Arctic) and warm (Mid-Latitude) masses of air as well as in altitude (SSW).

Subsequently, “temperature” is less reliable than looking at “work” seen even in the “mild” events.

In the framework presented throughout the line of research published in this blog (and researchgate) it has been considered “Climate” as being defined by the amount of energy free to do work. In other words, energy free to promote weather events. Accordingly, in my research I define Climate by the amount and state of energy in circulation, and Weather by the use of this energy.

Consequently, with the definition applied for Climate and Weather, my definition of Climate Drift is:

“the deviation from equilibrium of the conditions allowing the perpetuity of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in a micro and macro ecosystem. This situation can be due to changes in any component of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes can be either a change in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality or rates in the flows of energy pre-established OR/AND the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components/forces and energy sinks or sources in any part of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance.”

In my assessments I have defended that the increase in the energy pool at mid-latitudes would ultimately create an scenario with an overcharged atmosphere. That would reduce the contrasts with which to create and maintain stability in the structure required to condense energy in singular events, like hurricanes. Giving more relevance to the single contrast between Ocean/continental masses. However, the opening of the Arctic circulation through a weak Jet Stream would reduce the pressure in the containment absorbing the condensation of energy at mid-latitudes, expanding into a new volume.

Accordingly, hadley circulation gets affected (see also) generating new patterns of turbulence at the ITCZ as well as it gets influenced Arctic mixing zones with lower latitudes.

In this scenario TCs are generated under an increase in the mixing ratio of an unstable atmospheric circulation dominated by kinetic energy transferred by water vapour thanks to GHGs, and immersed in an overcharged atmosphere with no place where to diffuse its energy, becoming resilient as long as they stay over the ocean. So they endure like a piece of an ice rock in cold water.

About Sea Surface Temperatures, my assessments take SST as subsequent conditions driven by wind shear. So the interaction between masses of air in circulation allowes or inhibits SST developments. Once the scenario is built on SST this becomes a “battle field” conditioning the subsequent interaction between the following masses of air and the characteristics of the “grounds” where the game will be played (sort of speak). Like the effect of the ice conditions in an ice hockey match.

El Niño is an event which happens in a very small portion of the Earth, it is related to the temperature of a very thin layer of the Ocean in depth, a small percentage of the area occupied by the whole Oceanic masses, and even smaller when it is integrated in the multidimensional space combining Ocean and atmosphere. It is kind of intriguing to think why it has been so easy to conclude that such small portion of the entire system is driving it as a whole. It is like considering that the flowering of plants drives the seasons. Similarly it could be said about using SST at the Arctic to justify altogether; the lack of ice, warmer temperatures at tropospheric level and even at stratospheric level. There is not enough energy in the SST of such small area as it is the Arctic to justify all those convective dynamics.

(March 22, 2016 Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1968.5521).

Statistical Significance. The Scary Side of Being Mild (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.21934.61767

In my research I have been very persistent trying to highlight how much relevance it is given to a small area in size and depth driving global circulation as it is the SST at the Eq Pacific while an area of the same size and even more depth could be identified in the Amazon or by the change suffered in Land cover by agriculture at global scale.

We have to consider that SST are measured in the 5 or less m of the Ocean meanwhile Forests can occupy more than 15 meters in depth. And both are sources of the latent heat carried out in the atmosphere which fuels convective dynamics dominating intrusions over the Arctic.

Analyses which I published in my line of research some time ago studying the impact from changes in Land cover over atmospheric dynamics:

  • April 23, 2015 Matching Features Between Land Surface and Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20035.30247. https://wp.me/p403AM-xK 
  • June 10, 2016 The Butterfly Effect on Arctic Circulation. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) https://wp.me/p403AM-12H

Discussion

The analyses performed in my line of research describe a Climatic Drift, from pre-established atmospheric conditions strongly compartmentalised in Altitude and Latitude, towards a Climatic Regime characterised by an instability originated by patterns of Trans-latitudinal and Vertical mixing. An increase in atmospheric motion inducing sudden and extreme changes in atmospheric conditions generating weather events with abnormal properties for a particular location, throughout latitudes, longitudes and altitudes.

Einstein and his developments were mainly applied in physics due to the use that it was made of his work with the aim to manipulate energy in times of conflict, or to understand space. The equation is simple E=mc2. The language of physics has dominated the discussion over physical developments since then and it has been established as the logical translation of climatic developments. However, in the current times, the role of scientific understanding demands to move beyond the barriers of language, either between semantic cultural languages and between disciplines.

Being myself a Biologist involved in Atmospheric dynamics applying physics to explain such a complex subject as it is climatic evolution might seem like the tale of the child claiming that the Emperor has no clothes.

And yet, it seems to me evident that a thermodynamic system as it is our planet, can not scape from the most basic and powerful understanding of our contemporary scientific evolution. If E=MC2, and the anthropogenic activity is increasing the transformation of M into Energy in the system (from burning Mass from fossils and vegetable components, as well as by liberating other forms of energy such as gravimetric in Dams, Solar, transformation of raw materials, etc,) such transformation rate will move the balance in the thermodynamic behaviour of the whole system, and the rate of such deviation from equilibrium will be related with the speed at which the transformation rate between E/M is performed: M>(c)2

Conclusions

The main conclusion from my 4 years of researching synergistic interactions between all transformations seen over the Liquid, Gaseous and solid phases of our global Environment indicates that anthropogenic activity is forcing our environment into A System Becoming Dominated By Free Energy. (DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18509.13289)

The biotic component of our environmental system is the only one capable of interacting against thermodynamic entropy, against instability. And for as long as Human activity can not replicate such mechanisms in equilibrium with the resources consumed, it might be time to think about domesticating Human Activities instead of following the obsession for Domesticating Natural Behaviour and Geoengineer our Weather. 

Overall Conclusions

An increase in the amount of energy being in “free” state means that kinetic processes will increasingly dominate thermodynamic processes, inducing a transition in our Seasonal and Climatic regimes from being driven by Orbital Positioning to be driven by more erratic Kinetic processes.


Throughout the line of research here presented there have been several aspects in the global debate on climatic synergies showing major discrepancies with mainstream scientific coverage. The assessments are about the concept of climate drift, the link between the Polar Vortex and tropospheric circulation, the role played by SST and the ENSO, the dynamics explaining abnormal Arctic Warming and sea ice cover, the concept of global warming vs global cooling and the role played by Anthropogenic transformations. (see full index at the Home page).

Some examples:

Polar Vortex

November 14, 2014 Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2500.0488

Climate Drift

October 21, 2014 (Updated 22/Dec/14) New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4859.3440
February 10, 2015 (UPGRADED 24th March2015) Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1975.7602/1
Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Drift. Are we there yet? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) July 2, 2015
September 2, 2016 Climate Drift, The True Meaning of Things and the Drift of Those. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.22069.78561
February 6, 2018 Feb 2018. Climate Drifts and The Scientific Method of Waiting 30 Years. Follow up on previous assessments by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18823.09122

Arctic Amplification

November 17, 2016 Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)  DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.24688.35848
December 17, 2016 Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20129.81760
February 28, 2018 Arctic Warming as a Result of Convective Forcing by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD  Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34551.73125

SST and ENSO

December 11, 2015 Could It Be El Niño The New “Wolf” Coming? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.3238.2801
March 22, 2016 Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)  Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1968.5521
June 23, 2017 “Seasonal Outlook. June 2017 (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25428.91528

Between global warming and global cooling there is global mixing.

September 8, 2015 Trans-Arctic circulation between Pacific and Atlantic Basins. A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla).  Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1697.5847
May 26, 2016 Atmospheric Circulation and the Mixing Zone. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34019.04645
July 1, 2016 Atmospheric mixing. Indian Basin June 2016 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.11803.98088
August 26, 2016 Aug 2016 Follow-up on previous assessments. Atmospheric Dynamics, Temperature Displacements, Atmospheric Mixing (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

September 14, 2016 Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.19874.63684
October 13, 2016 Global Mixing in Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.21255.60320
May 5, 2017 Mixing Dynamics keep shaping A Roller coaster of Temperatures over South Europe. Follow-up on previous research 5th May 17. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.16627.43043
June 9, 2017 “Mixing Dynamics” in the Atmosphere. A follow-up on previous research by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.23548.03209
March 14, 2018 Visualising Wind and Convective Forcing Driving Climatic Dynamics. Follow-up 14 March 2018 by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD  Pdf available at DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34233.06249
April 19, 2018 Climate, Weather and Energy. Using a Climatic Regime to explain Weather Events by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Research DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.27923.58406

Anthropogenic transformations over the structure and composition of the three phases of the environment (Gaseous-Atmosphere, Solid- Land Use and Cover, Liquid-Water bodies) have reduced CxHxOx and increased CxOx+HxOx, CxHx, as well as albedo, … altering the energetic balance in the thermodynamic system which conforms our Climatic regimes.

July 24, 2015 Solar Activity and Human Activity, Settling Their Environmental Liability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36702.33606
March 3, 2017 Thermodynamic Ecosystems by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.32238.10566
May 26, 2017 The CO2 Greening Effect Review. CO2 Makes Headlines To Grow Like Trees, Shaping Different Forests Offering Different Views (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.16286.33601
March 23, 2017 Final Review in Progress. March 2017. From ENSO to Scientific Thinking by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.33915.82726

The Test of Time against Current Dynamics

From previous publication Seasonal Transitions under a New Climatic Scenario. by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. Posted on

This year 2018 many of the topics discussed through the line presented show to be supported by conclusions discussed throughout all the analyses presented:

  •  The ENSO is not a driver of convective forcing over the NH,
  • Convective forcing from Mid-latitudinal towards the Arctic circulation has wear off the gradients of temperature generating a strong Polar Jet Stream.
  •  Arctic warming occurs through atmospheric intrusions from Mid Latitudes,
  • The collapse of the Polar Jet Stream has opened Arctic circulation to Mid-Latitudinal circulation intrusions allowing Trans-Arctic circulation between Pacific and Atlantic Basins.
  •  The global Temperature measured is the resultant of mixing patterns in the atmosphere,
  • Therefore an increase in mixing dynamics creates a pause in temperature raise,
  • An increase in mixing dynamics show an increase in convective forcing,
  • Convective forcing is the work resultant from an increase in atmospheric energy being incorporated in free state,
  • The incorporation and spread of energy in free state into the atmosphere is carried and released by water vapour
  • An increase of water vapour in atmospheric circulation requires an increase in the thermal capacity of the atmosphere
  • The process of enhancing the thermal capacity of the atmosphere comes by increasing the concentration of GHGs, conc of aerosols and land surface albedo.
  • Several processes carried out by human activity are linked with the previous assessment: human activity reduces the capacity of the biotic environment to fix energy from free state into inert state by reducing biochemical processing and storage (CxHxOx photosynthesis and biomass) and increases atmospheric concentrations of GHGs by releasing CO2 and H2O into the atmosphere. Also, land use and cover transformations increase albedo, industrial activities increase aerosols and the compartmentalization of water affects water cycles.
  • In a thermodynamic system the energetic pool is the sum of the amount of energy in free state capable of doing work, and the energy fixed in an inert form as part of mass. The amount of energy in free state is proportional to the amount of energy fixed in inert form as mass (E=mc2). The release of energy from its inert form increases the amount of energy in free state to do work. Energy is not created, neither destroyed. The transformation of the three phases of the environment forced by human activities, gaseous (atmosphere), liquid (water cycle) and solid (land use and cover), increases the amount of energy in free state capable of promoting all forms of work; convective forcing, strong winds, solid and liquid precipitation, lightning, dust storms, heat waves, cold displacements, and ultimately, and increase in atmospheric mixing in altitude and across latitudes.

Current dynamics keep supporting previous conclusions

My activity at LinkedIn is complementary to the line of research published at the blog in order to expose it for an open review. Simultaneously I include publications at ResearchGate generating a DOI as part of the portfolio associated with the line of research.

Those whom are aware of my line of research have seen how between 2014 and 2016 I shared analyses over real time developments in order to validate the hypothesis behind my conclusions offered in 2013. After 2016 I incorporated the process of validating those against time by re-publishing them in contrast with the developments seen in the following years in order to evaluate its potential representing a pattern. You can see this if you look at my “activity” in my profile at Linkedin or using in this platform the search bar (“Diego Fdez-Sevilla” + “content”). Furthermore, I have included a page in this blog named “public review” with all the links to my activity in LinkedIn so you can become aware of the feedback received for each publication.

Among all the re-shares offered for validation against current dynamics this 2018 some examples are the following:

(Shared the 8th August 2018 at LinkedIN) _______________

Recap March 3, 2017. Thermodynamic ecosystems: “Our climate and natural systems incorporate variability in their behaviour. But the existence of our environment as we know it, comes with a variability within a range of tolerance thresholds. So what we are facing here is the possibility of seeing tolerance thresholds trespassed at various parts of our ecosystem, triggering a chain reaction all over the enclosed system encapsulated by the atmosphere of our planet. The level of graduality in the transition between seasons can alter the stability of biological systems they well might also affect the synergistic feedbacks existent between biological productivity and the thermodynamic atmospheric behaviour. These synergistic feedbacks seem to not be of much part of the research available in the literature. And yet, the stability of an ecosystem, biotic and nonbiotic parts altogether, has to be considered as the result of receiving and absorbing perturbations by all sides, atmosphere, biotope and ecotope. When a region losses the capacity to absorb perturbations and regenerate itself to its previous state, the whole balance between land cover and atmospheric behaviour above it will change. From regional to a global change only takes to have enough regional changes to coalescence.”

(Shared the 2nd August 2018 at LinkedIN) _________________________

“The developments in atmospheric circulation observed at the present time seem to keep supporting previous assessments not only on the Hadley circulation. Accordingly, the evolution of the atmospheric dynamics addressed throughout the line of research presented highlights the dominance in the directionality of the influence of atmospheric conditions at Mid-Latitude into Arctic circulation. Something which goes opposite to the directionality defended by the Theory of Arctic Amplification. Ultimately, based on the previous research presented, the implications derived from seeing Mid-Latitudinal climatic regimes moving higher in latitude incorporates relevant uncertainties, not only over the developments of atmospheric dynamics, but more importantly, over the development of feedback loops with terrestrial ecosystems. Considering atmospheric and terrestrial interactions conformed by Biotic and non-biotic components and processes, and based on the developments pointed out through the line of research, those synergistic interactions have the potential to develop patterns in environmental evolution which will be sustained only temporally, in a period of transition.”

(Shared the 31st July 2018 at LinkedIN) _______________

There is a prominent difference between doing research to enlarge a personal or institutional curriculum with that of doing research to face a threat. The first is what makes the news and becomes main stream. This difference between pursuing a personal career enhancement or the will to push against limitations and fear, changes the focus of attention and the functionality of the product. Otherwise it is incomprehensible to have arrived at this point of surreal lack of scientific advancement with so many publications and so little answers.

Update on the extreme heat wave for Iberia – confirmed!

severe-weather.eu

(shared the 18 July 2018 at Linkedin) __________________________

“Mixing dynamics in atmospheric circulation through latitudes generates a roller-coaster of temperatures and anomalies.

Energetic pulses from equatorial convecting forcing drives such dynamics enhancing water vapour transport independently from oceanic indexes, giving downpour precipitation and warm vs cold displacement” #japan #sweden #spain #eeuu #india #pakistan #rusia #australia

Some Related Analyses:

  • * SST Anomalies and Heat Waves. Are They Not All Just Heat Displacements? (by D Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) October 16, 2015 https://wp.me/p403AM-EX
  • * New insides on old concepts (by D Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) December 23, 2015 https://wp.me/p403AM-P5
  • * Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by D Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) March 22, 2016 https://wp.me/p403AM-X7
  • * Atmospheric Dynamics. Foreseeable, At The Moment. (by D Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) July 19, 2016 https://wp.me/p403AM-16P
  • * Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by D Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) December 17, 2016 https://wp.me/p403AM-1jd
  • * Convective Forcing Dominates Atmospheric Circulation NH (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Posted on May 23, 2018 https://wp.me/p403AM-1UH

Previous analyses seem to be confirmed by current dynamics observed throughout the year 2018. New insides on old concepts (by D Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) December 23, 2015 https://wp.me/p403AM-P5 See image 15 Aug 2018 Atmospheric Dynamics. Foreseeable, At The Moment. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Posted on July 19, 2016 DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.14079.41127 https://wp.me/p403AM-16P See image 6 Aug 2018

______________________

Shared the 27th July 2018 at Linkedin

Final Review in Progress. March 2017. From ENSO to Scientific Thinking by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.

diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com

Update 1 Aug 2018 over previous assessments:

“This year 2018 many of the topics discussed through the line presented show to be supported by conclusions discussed throughout all the analyses presented

  • *-The ENSO is not a driver of convective forcing over the NH,
  • – Convective forcing from Mid-latitudinal towards the Arctic circulation has wear off the gradients of temperature generating a strong Polar Jet Stream.
  • – Arctic warming occurs through atmospheric intrusions from Mid Latitudes, The collapse of the Polar Jet Stream has opened Arctic circulation to Mid-Latitudinal circulation intrusions allowing Trans-Arctic circulation between Pacific and Atlantic Basins.
  • – The global Temperature measured is the resultant of mixing patterns in the atmosphere,
  • – Therefore an increase in mixing dynamics creates a pause in temperature raise,
  • – An increase in mixing dynamics show an increase in convective forcing,
  • – Convective forcing is the work resultant from an increase in atmospheric energy being incorporated in free state,
  • – The incorporation and spread of energy in free state into the atmosphere is carried and released by water vapour

About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Data policy The products processed by "Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD" are made available to the public for educational and/or scientific purposes, without any fee on the condition that you credit "Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD" as the source. Copyright notice: © Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD 2013-2019 orcid: orcid.org/0000-0001-8685-0206 and the link to its source at diegofdezsevilla.wordpress or permanent DOI found at Reearchgate. Should you write any scientific publication on the results of research activities that use Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD products as input, you shall acknowledge the Diego Fdez-Sevilla's PhD Project in the text of the publication and provide an electronic copy of the publication (d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com). If you wish to use the Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD products in advertising or in any commercial promotion, you shall acknowledge the Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Project and you must submit the layout to Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD for approval beforehand (d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com). The work here presented has no economic or institutional support. Please consider to make a donation to support the means for making sustainable the energy, time and resources required. Also any sponsorship or mentoring interested would be welcome. Intellectual Property This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! For those publications missing at the ResearchGate profile vinculated with this project DOIs can be generated on demand by request at email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com. **Author´s profile: Born in 1974. Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my work previous to 2013 as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After 12 years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, in 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my own line of research. In the current competitive scenario, in order to demonstrate my capacities instead of just moving my cv waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I decided to invest my energy and time in opening my own line of research sharing it in this blog. In March 2017 the budget reserved for this project has ended and its weekly basis time frame discontinued until new forms of economic and/or institutional support are incorporated into the project. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this platform and at LinkedIn has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my achievements and that the Intellectual Property Rights generated with the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in similar lines of research. **Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome as well as any approach exploring professional opportunities.** In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2019, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects, don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access and DOIs found at the Framework and Timeline page and ResearchGate. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2018. Filling in or/and Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/ ***
This entry was posted in Energy Balance, Extreme climatic events, Filling in, Influence of Continentality, Polar vortex and Jet Stream, Solar activity, Water vapour and tagged , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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