Follow-up on Previous Research from the line of research published by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. April 2017 Atmospheric Dynamics and Climatic Developments.


Follow-up on Previous Research from the line of research published by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. April 2017 Atmospheric Dynamics and Climatic Developments.

From the publication

February 10, 2015 (UPGRADED 24th March2015) Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla.

The weather events observed at the current time show relevant features in the atmospheric circulation dictating the weather at the North Hemisphere. Such features agree with the theory which I proposed in previous posts suggesting the mechanisms which would  explain the development of present and future climatic events based on an increase in the atmospheric energy budget making more difficult the dissipation of the energy contained in cyclonic events and weakening the Polar Jet Stream.

The most significant features indicating the potential validity of this theory are:

  • Moisture gained in the Equator getting introduced in atmospheric circulation carried by water vapour into higher latitudes incorporating more energy in atmospheric circulation in the form of latent heat.

Notice that the most predominant entrance of water vapour into high latitudes happens in the North Atlantic.

Persistent patterns in atmospheric circulation carrying water vapour in the NH Pacific have repeated similar to those from last year’s winter:  2014-Feb, Nov and Dec. 2015-Feb and March.

2014 Feb (more on this images following this link)

Surface Wind TPW DiegoFdezSevilla 1000hPa Wind TPW DiegoFdezSevilla

2014 Nov

Similarities-in-total-precipitable-water-and-weather-patterns-at-the-north-pacific-6Nov-22Dec-2014-image-taken-by-diego-fdez-sevilla-from-nullchool-net2015- Feb 10th

10 Feb 2015 TPW Surf_by DiegoFdezSevilla

10 Feb 2015.- State of atmospheric circulation for wind direction and Total Precipitable Water in the atmospheric column today 10th Feb 2015. Data NOAA & Nullschool.

2015- March 5th.

5 march 2015 NCEP_NCAR ECMWF ERA_Interim

2015 March 11th

Water vapor 11 March 2015

11 march 2015 Total Precipitable Water. NOAA/NCEP.

Analysis presented on Feb 2015

From the publication

March 22, 2016 Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)

(pdf at Researchgate) DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1968.5521

Considering that the changes in the trade winds is the key feature in the atmospheric circulation generating variability towards the ENSO, and subsequent weather patterns, I have based my research on observing atmospheric circulation since 2013. From my research I believe that the main mechanism driving atmospheric circulation at the NH and global scale, is the interaction between mid latitudes and Arctic circulation having the Polar Jet Stream as the main feature. In particular, the properties enforced into the air masses at Mid latitudes (Temperature, water content and molecular composition) at the North Hemisphere are directly drawn by the influence of evaporation over the Equator and gaseous emissions at Mid Latitudes. In order to absorb all incoming energy fluxes and matter compounds (Gaseous and aerosols) at mid Latitudes, the volume delimited by the Polar Jet Stream has to variate. Such impacts have shown to be at low latitudes through intrusions of warm masses of air coming across the barrier, and at high altitudes delivering events of Stratospheric Sudden Warming.

Such scenario would suggest that the Mid Latitudes have always been linked with the state of the trade winds. And their variable strength at the Equator would be related with their interactions with the Arctic circulation at higher latitudes and altitudes.

Increasing the thermal conductivity of the air masses contained at mid latitudes (due to GHGs) would increase convective power to move towards the Arctic and in altitude. As a pressure valve in an industrial system, such valve would open sporadically releasing pressure from the system when the conditions overwhelm the resistance to contain it.

As I have discussed in my previous post on Arctic circulation, I believe that such scenario has allowed a trans-Arctic connection between Atlantic and Pacific basins. Actual developments seen through February and March 2016 seem to keep supporting my previous assessments following this approach.

Arctic Dynamics Outtake_Intake Diego Fdez-Sevilla I

Pacific Circulation

On my previous publication on thermodynamics I have discussed their applications in assessing atmospheric circulation dynamics. In one of my assessments I suggested that the driving forces behind the positive phase of the ENSO during 2015 might have played an impact over the Pacific circulation by overstimulating Pacific atmospheric dynamics. Such over-stimulation would have induced a change from a two cell configuration seen over 2013, 2014 and summer 2015, with high activity on the Equatorial middle Pacific, into a single big cell dragging low systems from the West Pacific coast all the way into North America. (previous discussion here and here).

Previous positive ENSO. 2013-14 early 2015

Water vapour circulation globally 7th Sept 2015 DiegoFdezSevillaDuring Winter 2015/16 the Pacific circulation changed from a two cell configuration into a single big one.

Multi IR Global Dec 2015 Diego Fdez-Sevilla

My point of view over this situation is that this one cell pattern is the result from the two previous cells coalescing as consequence of the positive ENSO phase. But furthermore, I pointed out that I believe that with the return into neutral conditions the circulation at the Pacific will regain a pattern with two cell of atm rivers as those seen in 2013-14 (for more see my previous publications following this link).

One of the observations that I find relevant to support the idea of that the two cell configuration will comeback is the fact that the blocking patterns over California and the Atlantic have always been around since before and through the positive ENSO.

Blocking patterns 21 Jan 2016 By Diego Fdez-Sevilla22 March 2016. NCEP/GFS Graphic representation of TPW by Nulschool

TPW 22 March 2016 Pacific by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

The actual dynamics (Spring April-2017) in atmospheric circulation seem to support the assessments offered since October 2014.

The “mixing patterns” between mid-latitudinal circulation and Arctic circulation seem to keep repeating in zonification and behaviour.

Atlantic intrusions of mid latitudinal masses of air displace Arctic masses of air as “drops of weather“,  moving into lower latitudes provoking a roller-coaster of temperatures in its path, reaching even tropical level affecting developments at the ITCZ.

  • Among those Previous assessments addressing Arctic masses of air moving as “drops of weather”:

March 7, 2015 Drops of Weather. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
November 10, 2015 Starts Raining Drops of Winter at Mid-Latitudes. The new Autumn? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
  • Among those Previous assessments addressing sudden changes in temperatures:

May 14, 2015 A roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
May 13, 2016 Another roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 13, 2015
March 10, 2017 March 2017 Iberian Peninsula Follow-up from previous research by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD
  • Actual state of atmospheric circulation in relation with Atmospheric mixing conditions.

  • Among those Previous assessments addressing the mixing ratio resultant from “Kinetic Forcing” displacing Arctic masses of air:

May 26, 2016 Atmospheric Circulation and the Mixing Zone. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
October 7, 2016 Equatorial Dynamics. A conversation between Joaquin and Matthew (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)
October 13, 2016 Global Mixing in Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.)
December 17, 2016 Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)
February 9, 2017 Feb 2017. Polar Jet Stream and Atmospheric Dynamics. Follow-up over Past and Present Conditions (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)
March 10, 2017 March 2017 Iberian Peninsula Follow-up from previous research by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD
November 17, 2016 Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)
September 14, 2016 Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)

GFS forecast developments at 850 and 300 hPa over the Iberian Peninsula. Init 21 March 2017

  • Actual state of atmospheric circulation in relation with Atmospheric mixing conditions.

9 April 2017 Airmass Temp (cold red, warm green. Eumetsat). Notice the masses of Arctic cold air moving at lower latitudes over the Atlantic basin. In fact, the mass over the Azores remained hovering in front of the Iberian peninsula for several days.

  • Actual state of atmospheric circulation in relation with SST developments.

 

Source NOAA OSPO

Source PMEL NOAA

  • Among those Previous assessments addressing atmospheric dynamics affecting ITCZ developments:

From previous assessment:

October 13, 2016 Global Mixing in Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.)

From my line of research I am convinced on that Arctic perturbations at the Atlantic basin (warm intrusions over the Arctic and cold at mid-latitudes) are responsible for the genesis of Tropical Systems due to alterations over the ITCZ.

From there, the behaviour and paths followed by them would also be driven by more Arctic perturbations (combination of warm intrusions at the North Pacific and North Atlantic and cold at lower latitudes) inducing changes in pressure located all around their path, in front and behind their movement.

At least these are part of my interpretations from my observations. There might be experts with a different analyses.

What concerns to my research is the resilience of the storm to dissipate its energy, and I am considering not only the conditions at tropospheric level but also at higher altitudes.

In the latest post in my blog (Equatorial Dynamics. A conversation between Joaquin and Matthew (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. I pointed out that the equator has shown to be warmed up at 50hPa. Altogether it will reduce the differential in the gradients of energy between the storm and its surroundings reducing the dissipation rate of its energy, allowing for it to hover keeping momentum as we have seen with other storms moving for days over the Atlantic. (see video Equatorial dynamics)

In the present publication I want to point out how much interconnected are the processes linking Arctic perturbations (Pacific and Atlantic basins) with the developments at the Pacific and Atlantic ITCZ on generating mixing dynamics in latitude and altitude. (see video Global Mixing Oct 2016)

  • Comparison between previous assessments and current conditions ITCZ

2016, 14 march. An intrusion of warm air into High latitudes displaced Arctic air moving at lower latitudes affecting developments at the ITCZ. A band of clouds from central Africa towards the Arabic peninsula and North India is highlighting the extension of the influence from such intrusion over the European continent.

14March2016 Atmospheric conditions Atlantic Eumetsat Diego Fdez-Sevilla14March2016 Atmospheric conditions Atlantic Eumetsat.

2017, 18 April. Similarly to Autumn 2016, an intrusion of warm air into High latitudes displaced Arctic air moving at lower latitudes affecting developments at the ITCZ. A similar band of clouds from central Africa towards the Arabic peninsula and North India is highlighting the extension of the influence from such intrusion over the European continent

  • Developments related with the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream NH

Through the NH Autumn period the equatorial zone of influence (ITCZ) moves to the south as well as the Polar Jet Stream come lower in latitude. In the same manner, but in opposite direction, through the NH Spring period, the equatorial zone of influence (ITCZ) moves to the North as well as the Polar Jet Stream come higher in latitude. Such transition makes both periods of time to share patterns in atmospheric circulation.

From a previous published recap over the research applied over the Polar Jet Stream since 2013:

October 27, 2016 Autumn and the NH Polar Jet Stream (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)

Through the NH Autumn period the equatorial zone of influence (ITCZ) moves to the south as well as the Polar Jet Stream come lower in latitude.

There are several implications derived from this changes. However, the state of the Polar Jet has been weak and wobbly through this decade. Having a weak Jet Stream means that the transition between seasons and its change in latitudinal location is not homogeneous in space and neither constant in time. Its erratic behaviour has increased the probability of seeing atmospheric developments which could be considered out of season due to their characteristics, their location and their timing. Atmospheric developments which sometimes are expressed in the form of thermal deviations from their geographical climatic regime (temperatures reaching higher/lower values than those expected for a specific location in an specific part of the year). But also the alterations brought by an unstable atmospheric compartmentalization is related with the developments of some type of storms.

In 2014 the analysis of the scenario created by the erratic behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream became a theoretical proposal offering an explanation over the mechanisms driving the atmospheric developments  observed.

Seeing how same developments repeat their configuration in space and time brings me to close a circle in the line of the research published in this blog with over 200 publications addressing and assessing the impact of transformations in the solid, liquid and gaseous phases of the energy flows driving our environment triggering a climatic drift.

In a nutshell I would resume my approach as follows:

The energy flows in our environment is formed by energy sources and sinks using the atmosphere as the medium through which energy is transferred  between the liquid, solid and gaseous phases of the environment. The major change identified in geological times is the constant and increasing force behind the transformation of the structure and composition of all those phases due to human activities. Such transformation has altered the sources and sinks of energy as well as it has modified the conductance properties of the mediums transferring the energy contained in the Earth system. All the modifications carried by human activity reduce the capacity of environmental energy sinks, biotic systems, as well as introduce new sources of energy from all the activities which are applied in the development of our societies and industry.

The incapacity for the environment to use energy sinks against the energy being contained in the Earth system, altogether with the increase in thermal conductance of the atmosphere due to GHGs, and the increase in albedo due to land use and cover, increases the amount of energy being transferred within the system triggering an increase in turbulence, beginning within the less dense phase of the environment, the gaseous phase or atmosphere. Such energetic imbalance jeopardise  the structural integrity of the atmospheric compartmentalization weakening the strength of those features built upon steep differences in energy gradients or thermal gradients (Jet Steams and Polar Vortex), and generating other resilient features which have no place where to dissipate their energy like blocking patterns, strong cyclonic profiles in altitude and storms able to persist in time and distances.

Ultimately, the dynamics of the atmosphere driving climatic temperatures and humid regimes in latitude and altitude would suffer an increase in the mixing ratio between masses of air otherwise kept isolated thanks to the compartmentalised nature of its previous configuration. The outcome from this evaluation points to an increase in the erratic behaviour of seasons and atmospheric dynamics. Neither global warming or global cooling being a “global trend”. Instead, the exchange of masses of air from mid-latitudes into polar latitudes will force displacements of air masses from high latitudes affecting the dynamics of the whole system without a predictive pattern other than following the thermal properties of the mediums dominating the local situation. Thus contrasts between land and oceans (see category “Influence of continentality”, and previous posts ref1 and ref2).

  • The comparison between the current conditions and past conditions seem to support previous assessments:

2017, 18 April

2016, 14 March

14March2016 Atmospheric conditions Atlantic Eumetsat Diego Fdez-Sevilla

  • Intrusions of water vapour at High Latitudes

Previous assessments

September 8, 2015 A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla).
October 7, 2015 Arctic Intake of Water Vapour (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)

  • Current state of atmospheric dynamics 18 April 2017

Airmass 18 April 2017.

2017 April 21. Total precipitable Water. NOAA/NCEP. earthnullschool.net.

  • Comparison between April 2017 with March 2015.

(From previous assessment “Pacific circulation With and without positive ENSO”) My point of view over this situation is that this one cell pattern is the result from the two previous cells coalescing as consequence of the positive ENSO phase. But furthermore, I pointed out that I believe that with the return into neutral conditions the circulation at the Pacific will regain a pattern with two cell of atm rivers as those seen in 2013-14 (for more see my previous publications following this link).

Compare April 2017 (above) with March 2015 (below).

Water vapor 11 March 2015

See timeline page to consult the index with all previous assessments published by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.

About myself:

After finnishing my Masters in Environmental Science in 2001, I have performed research at PhD level and worked inside and outside academia at institutions linked with environmental research and management. In 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new job’s position.

In such competitive scenario, instead of just moving my cv between desks waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I used it as an advantageous standing point to start and develop independent research in a blog in which I could open my own line of research completely free of external pressures or interferences.

Through the whole project I have increasingly being focused on publishing pieces of original research applying my own perspective aiming to address relevant environmental questions.

The level of uncertainty which I have accomplished in my assessments has reached enough accuracy to replicate real time developments to the point of compete with models sustained by corporate and administrative budgets.

At this point Feb 2017, it has reached an stage in which its framework has been defined and it has been applied in follow-ups (in the timeline section at the bottom use ctrl+F: “follow-up”) delivering the subsequent conclusions. Therefore, the work which I present in my blog has become a chapter in my career, and I should focus now my attention on my new steps towards professional and personal growth.

The economic support sustaining the three years of research presented in this blog has been private based on my own capacity to generate it. Once the main conclusions of the project have demonstrated their value, it is time for my career to find new ways of growth and/or external sources of financial support.

Therefore, at this time Feb 2017, the generation of assessments over present developments discontinues its weekly bases in the absence of external financial support.

Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD In transition

I am looking for new opportunities and new challenges, to join a team. At the same time that I look for job openings to incorporate my resume, I would encourage any one finding interesting any of the skills which I apply throughout my research, as well as communicator, to evaluate my profile as a candidate for your projects. email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

You can look at the whole project (more than 190 posts between Oct 2013 to Feb 2017) published at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com and also you will find some of those publications in my profile at ResearchGate and at the Citations page.

I am living in Spain free to relocate geographically worldwide.

About this Project:

My definition of Climate Drift is: the deviation from equilibrium of the conditions allowing the perpetuity of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in a micro and macro ecosystem. This situation can be due to changes in any component of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes can be either a change in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality or rates in the flows of energy pre-established OR/AND the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components/forces and energy sinks or sources in any part of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance.

This project published in a blog format, offers pieces of original research in environmental science, and a space for discussion, based on considering as a major factor limiting our understandings the lack of attention given to the gaps of knowledge existent. The concepts, measurements and parameters applied to address environmental synergistic interactions are too narrow and isolated from each other to understand their full meaning. Such circumstance induce to reach dogmatic patterns of thought to make the quickest conclusions in the absence of a better and clear idea describing what is happening.

In this Project I aim to address those limitations using observational analyses offering assessments over real time events considering those as proxies of significant value to make interpretations over global synergistic relationships.

Feedback is always welcome here and at my email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

Since 2002 I have performed research over the Atmospheric Dynamics interacting with the biota in the field of Aerobiology. In Oct 2013 I focused my attention over climatic dynamics and in Oct 2014 I published what I believe to be a valid theory explaining current developments in atmospheric dynamics. I shared my thoughts at my blog and several groups in LinkedIn (like the AGU, NASA and NOA groups) where the immense response offered has been silence.

In Feb 2015 I published a revision and since then a constant follow-up throughout more than 200 assessments. Still today, April 2017, the majority of the response is silence despite the amount of visits identified by all the SEO tools and the interactions and shares accounted. See the related stats at the Timeline page.

So I thank your open feedback and share.

Nowadays, there are many divisions between disciplines due to the isolated nature of their specific language and methodologies. I might not use the right vocabulary for all the fields which I discuss, or the right data or the right reasoning. But when nobody is able to offer a consensus over what it is going on, I wonder, what is right this days?.

Licencia de Creative Commons
Esta obra está bajo una licencia de Creative Commons Reconocimiento-NoComercial 4.0 Internacional.

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Advertisements

About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Citing This Site "Title", published online "Month"+"Year", retrieved on "Month""Day", "Year" from http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! DOIs can be generated on demand by request at email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com for those publications missing at the ResearchGate profile vinculated with this project. **Author´s profile: Born in 1974. Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my work previous to 2013 as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After 12 years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, in 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my own line of research. In the current competitive scenario, in order to demonstrate my capacities instead of just moving my cv waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I decided to invest my energy and time in opening my own line of research sharing it in this blog. In March 2017 the budget reserved for this project has ended and its weekly basis time frame discontinued until new forms of economic and/or institutional support are incorporated into the project. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this platform and at LinkedIn has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my achievements and that the Intellectual Property Rights generated with the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in similar lines of research. **Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome as well as any approach exploring professional opportunities to be part of.** In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2017, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2017. Filling in or Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/
This entry was posted in Aerobiology, Energy Balance, Extreme climatic events, Filling in, Finding out, Influence of Continentality, Polar vortex and Jet Stream, Water vapour and tagged , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s