In Climate, Too Many Strange Things Are Happening (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)


In Climate, Too Many Strange Things Are Happening (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)

(updated 7 Sept 2016 with the incorporation of Figures showing the present state of the system in order to be compared with those assessments presented throughout the line of research published in this blog)

A strange thing happened in the stratosphere. September 2, 2016 by Patrick Lynch. phys.org

This disruption to the wind pattern – called the “quasi-biennial oscillation” – did not have any immediate impact on weather or climate as we experience it on Earth’s surface. But it does raise interesting questions for the NASA scientists who observed it: If a pattern holds for six decades and then suddenly changes, what caused that to happen? Will it happen again? What effects might it have?

“The quasi-biennial oscillation is the stratosphere’s Old Faithful,” said Paul Newman, Chief Scientist for Earth Sciences at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, and lead author on a new paper about the event published online in Geophysical Research Letters. “If Old Faithful stopped for a day, you’d begin to wonder about what was happening under the ground.”

Winds in the tropical stratosphere, an atmospheric layer that extends from about 10 to 30 miles above Earth’s surface, circulate the planet in alternating easterly and westerly directions over roughly a two-year period. Westerly winds develop at the top of the stratosphere, and gradually descend to the bottom, about 10 miles above the surface while at the same time being replaced by a layer of easterly winds above them. In turn, the easterlies descend and are replaced by westerlies.

This pattern repeats every 28 months. In the 1960s scientists coined it the “quasi-biennial oscillation.” The record of these measurements, made by weather balloons released in the tropics at various points around the globe, dates to 1953.

The pattern never changed – until late 2015. As the year came to a close, winds from the west neared the end of their typical descent. The regular pattern held that weaker easterly winds would soon replace them. But then the westerlies appeared to move upwards and block the downward movement of the easterlies. This new held for nearly half a year, and by July 2016 the old regime seemed to resume.

“It’s really interesting when nature throws us a curveball,” Newman said.

The quasi-biennial oscillation has a wide influence on stratospheric conditions. The amount of ozone at the equator changes by 10 percent between the peaks of the easterly and westerly phases, while the oscillation also has an impact on levels of polar ozone depletion.

With this disruption now documented, Newman and colleagues are currently focused on studying both its causes and potential implications. They have two hypotheses for what could have triggered it – the particularly strong El Niño in 2015-16 or the long-term trend of rising global temperatures. Newman said the scientists are conducting further research now to figure out if the event was a “black swan,” a once-in-a-generation event, or a “canary in the coal mine,” a shift with unforeseen circumstances, caused by climate change.

Searching for feedback everywhere

I hope that you have some time to look at some of my publications and share your thoughts.

I believe that they contain meaningful insides pointing to realistic scenarios involved in potential shifts over atmospheric dynamics driving climatic shifts.

I understand climate drift as the deviation from equilibrium of the conditions allowing the perpetuation of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in a micro and macro ecosystem. This situation can be due to changes in any component of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes can be either a change in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality or rates in the flows of energy pre-established OR/AND the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components/forces and energy sinks or sources in any part of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance.

Based on such approach, I have developed a line of research which foresee episodes linked with the reduction of contrasts in atmospheric energy pools at different locations in altitude and latitude. Such scenario would come from the incorporation of energy in the atmosphere through water vapour thanks to positive feedbacks from GHGs and Aerosols acting as “Velcro”. Also land-use plays a role by the synergistic interactions existent between soil conditions, land cover and biotic processes interacting with albedo, water cycles and biotic components involved in cloud formation.

All those processes combined drive wind shears, which in turn dominate atmospheric circulation in altitude, longitude and latitude.

I believe that potentially, the reduction in the directionality and stall of wind shear at stratospheric levels comes from a dynamic being built from the bottom up. As I believe it has been the condition of the Polar Vortex over the North Pole in the recent years.

This summer 2016 has seen a constant incorporation of warm masses of air in altitude over India. My assessments point to concluding that the mixing ratio between masses of air being warmed up at equatorial and mid-latitudes has increased altering the stratification of the atmosphere in its 3 dimensions.

As a result, some atmospheric events become more erratic in their behaviour and seasons are dominated by localised masses of air instead of the Solar angle of radiation linked with the position and tilt of the Earth.

gefs-2m-temp-anomaly-c-from-6-sept-2016-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

GEFS ensemble 2m temp anomaly forecast from 6-sept-2016. Baseline 1981-2010

gfs-arctic-t2-anom-2016-09-06-base-line-1979-2000-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

GFS 2m temp anomaly forecast from 6-sept-2016. Baseline 1979-2000

The major indication of this scenario would be seen in the behaviour of the North Polar Jet Stream. This feature is the one with more visual impact representing the stratification of the atmosphere in latitude isolating cold masses of air in the Arctic circulation from those in Mid Latitudes. Its wobbly behaviour in the recent years indicates a reduction in the thermal contrast between Arctic circulation and Mid-Latitudes. But furthermore, not only the configuration of the North Polar jet Stream has lost its rigid conditions in latitude, but also in altitude suffering the influence of cyclonic events reaching as high as 250 hPa.

gefs-250-mb-wind-from-6-sept-2016-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

GEFS ensemble 250mb Wind speed/Streamlines forecast from 6-sept-2016

gfs-arctic-ws250-2016-09-06-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

GFS 250mb Wind speed/Streamlines forecast from 6-sept-2016

The scenario which my assessments describe is not verifiable by peer review articles since some of my assessments have not been addressed by the scientific community. So I would appreciate if you could incorporate your inside knowledge giving me some feedback in order to contrast my position with your assessments.

Temp Anomalies Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD

Last 90 days time series of temperature for various locations in western Europe. Regions shaded red show above-normal temperatures; regions shaded blue show below-normal temperatures. Last day 3 Sept 2016. Data NOAA/NCEP. Compilation by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

______________________________________

The aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. So any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time of at least a month from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found refuting the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.

In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will help me in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.

PerspectiveSince October 2013 I have been studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.

Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License,  WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.

More assessments presenting chronologically the line of research published in this blog can be accessed in the category Framework and Timeline.

For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out):

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About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Citing This Site "Title", published online "Month"+"Year", retrieved on "Month""Day", "Year" from http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my previous work as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After couple of years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, I find myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my research. In the present competitive scenario, instead of just moving my cv and wait for my next opportunity to arrive, I have decided to invest also my energy and time in opening my own line of research showing what I am capable of. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this blog has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my work and the intellectual rights represented by the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in this line of research. Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome. In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2017, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2017. Filling in or Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/
This entry was posted in Aerosols, Air, Biological productivity, Energy Balance, Environmental Resilience, Extreme climatic events, Filling in, Finding out, Influence of Continentality, Inland Water Bodies and Water Cycle, Polar vortex and Jet Stream, Solar activity, Water vapour and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

22 Responses to In Climate, Too Many Strange Things Are Happening (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)

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  20. Pingback: Temp Displacements. Solid Water In A Dessert Which Is Not At The Poles. (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

  21. Pingback: Following The Herd on Assessing Climatic Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

  22. Pingback: Breaking Stereotypes Assessing Climatic Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

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