Convective Forcing Dominates Atmospheric Circulation Driving Seasonal Transitions (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)


Convective Forcing Dominates Atmospheric Circulation Driving Seasonal Transitions (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)

Convective forcing keeps dominating Atmospheric circulation over the NH throughout the transition between Spring to Summer 2019.

The processes dominating current developments would be described as: The global Temperature measured is the resultant of mixing patterns in the atmosphere, Therefore an increase in mixing dynamics creates a pause in temperature raise, An increase in mixing dynamics show an increase in convective forcing, Convective forcing is the work resultant from an increase in atmospheric energy being incorporated in free state, The incorporation and spread of energy in free state into the atmosphere is carried and released by water vapour, An increase of water vapour in atmospheric circulation requires an increase in the thermal capacity of the atmosphere, The process of enhancing the thermal capacity of the atmosphere comes by increasing the concentration of GHGs, conc of aerosols and land surface albedo. Anthropogenic activity is linked with those processes.

Recap on previous Analyses:

June 29, 2018 Seasonal Transitions under a New Climatic Scenario. by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18385.22881

January 13, 2019 Winter 2018/19. Seasonal Transitions under a New Climatic Scenario. Follow-Up by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD

June 2018 – 2019

2018 From June 29, 2018 Seasonal Transitions under a New Climatic Scenario. by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18385.22881 AND June 26, 2019.

25 June 2018 500 Geopotential Heights and 850Hpa Temp. (from :June 29, 2018 Seasonal Transitions under a New Climatic Scenario. by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18385.22881)

June 2019

June 2018

June 2019

June 2018

 

June 2016

Temperature NOAA 22 June 2016 Diego Fdez-Sevilla

FOLLOW-up on previous work (2013-2019)

(pdf) Rayleigh–Taylor instabilities in Atmospheric Circulation Follow-Up on Atmospheric Dynamics and Climatic Implications By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. May 2019. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.26791.80805 Project: Filling In/Finding Out Gaps Around in Environmental Sciences. Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD

The stratification of the composition, structure and concentration of the components part of our thermodynamic ecosystem is what builds the synergistic interactions between soils, gases and water.

The whole approach described in the line of research presented since 2013 suggests an increase in atmospheric global mixing due to an overcharged atmosphere. These dynamics can be explained in many different ways for different audiences. In the case of physics, these dynamics have a name and can be observed by the increasing instability displayed in the atmosphere named as “Rayleigh-Taylor Instabilities”.

The Rayleigh–Taylor instability (RTI) is an interface instability due to interpenetration of two fluids with different densities and occurs whenever a light fluid tends to push on a heavy fluid (Rayleigh 1883, Taylor 1950). In this dynamical process two fluids seek to reduce their overall potential energy.

In the line of research here presented I have discussed throughout more than 150 analyses that atmospheric patterns associated with weather events point to an increase in atmospheric instability as the result of an increase in global mixing dynamics between two fluids with different densities, those from MidLatitudes and the Poles (Arctic). A difference in density showing a stratification in the amount of energy in free state carried by those fluids.

In the framework presented throughout the line of research published in this blog (and researchgate) it has been considered “Climate” as being defined by the amount of energy free to do work. In other words, energy free to promote weather events. Accordingly, in my research I define Climate by the amount and state of energy in circulation, and Weather by the use of this energy.(ref)

Consequently, with the definition applied for Climate and Weather, my definition of Climate Drift is:

“the deviation from equilibrium of the conditions allowing the perpetuity of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in a micro and macro ecosystem. This situation can be due to changes in any component of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes can be either a change in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality or rates in the flows of energy pre-established OR/AND the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components/forces and energy sinks or sources in any part of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance.”

Ultimately, the theoretical proposal part of the present line of research (ref2013 and ref2014) points out that an increase in the amount of free energy contained at the Meridional atmosphere (Equator and Mid Latitudes) will expand into higher latitudes (into the Poles) and altitudes (e.g. Sudden Stratospheric Warming) thanks to an enhanced thermal capacity of the atmosphere due to CO2 forcing using water vapour as the carrier transporting and releasing such extra pool of energy. Such increase in mixing dynamics will move towards decreasing the differential gradients of energy between latitudes and altitudes. In other words, an increase in Rayleigh–Taylor instabilities.

Boltzmann-Stefan vs Rayleigh-Taylor Instabilities

Opposite from those theories studying climatic developments based on applying Boltzmann-Stefan calculations to project increases in temperature related with increases in CO2, in the line of research here presented since 2013 Boltzmann-Stefan calculations are considered inaccurate since its application uses as a reference the radiation emissivity of a surface and assume an homogeneous system in thermodynamic equilibrium. Instead, throughout the approach followed in the present line of research I use the conceptual interpretation followed by Rayleigh–Taylor instabilities since those represent a more accurate description of the atmosphere as a volume instead of a surface, heterogeneous in composition, stratified and out from equilibrium.

Many scientists use data which do not know how is obtained and how much representativeness is restricted by the nature of the samples, the degradation through time, handling, intrusive methodologies, … The discussion is not about agreement but about trust and understanding. What is science about, thinkers or data managers?

The increasing role seen by scientists performing as “data mangers” has led science to adopt many assumptions based on statistics without explanations, and applied as “dogmas” in all aspects of science, without any regard for their impact over the conclusions raised. There are more results obtained by data management than understanding over their meaning.

Among those preconceptions distorting the meaning of data we have the concept of using greenhouse as simile, ice cores from Antarctica representing the whole planet and even continuity in time under “dry and wet conditions*, the concept of black body radiation, temperature as correlation independent of stratification and indexes such as the Enso being considered “the origin of” but “without an origin” in itself, as being born without conception and even without the need for an explanation.

The “Greenhouse” simile uses atmospheric gases with high heat retention capacity as it is CO2, to describe an scenario in which CO2 replicates the conditions of a greenhouse. However, the structure of a greenhouse and the dynamics of productivity in this structure are far from the reality of what our atmosphere and planet are.

The idealised concept of seeing gases like CO2 in the atmosphere is that those inhibit the planet from reflecting Solar radiation back into space. And the conceptualised figure of a greenhouse creates the assumption of that it replicates the function of the plastic or glass cover in a greenhouse. So it becomes an assumption that CO2 creates a “blanket” around the troposphere as the glass ceiling in a greenhouse. However, the constant motion of the atmosphere created by convective motion avoids such configuration. Instead, Gasses with High Heat Capacity Retention, like CO2, get incorporated into the whole dimensions of the atmosphere, only restricted by the atmospheric circulation delimited by thermal compartmentalization. So their effect implies a volume and not a surface. In a time in which the terminology of things are being discussed, CO2 and Water vapour should not be called “Greenhouse gasses” because these gases do not create “barriers with a surface” and our planet is not a greenhouse.

The configuration of our planet is compartmentalised and its composition is heterogeneous in latitude, longitude and altitude. All that shows in the data and the mismatch between correlations. Differently from a greenhouse, the feedbacks between water and CO2 are not defined by sharing same volume and radiation, neither lapse of permanency or adiabatic behaviour. Furthermore, the success for the biotic productivity in a greenhouse relies entirely in the constant supply of resources and the consumption of energy regulating all parameters, from temperature, CO2 and humidity. Different from a greenhouse, an ecosystem is an open system because it can exchange energy or materials with other ecosystems. Comparing our planet with a greenhouse creates a misconception about the structure of the atmosphere and the use of the resources.

Between global cooling or warming we are undergoing a process of global mixing, but that will only make sense to whom understand how heterogeneous was the configuration of our planetary circulation. The problem is not how far temperatures can raise, but what happens when they do not raise.

There is a point which I have strongly highlighted in my research trying to showcase how differently is the outcome from looking at our environment by “quantitative” variables (numbers of everything and anything, from temperatures, concentrations, number of trees, storms, …) against “qualitative” (“time of permanency” for all, trees, temperatures, GHGs, storms, heat waves, …). What makes all the difference for any situation is what it is needed for that something to exist and to be sustained. The nature of the element existent is as important as the environment allowing for its existence, and that goes for trees, storms (hurricanes, typhoons, …), for the state of water in the Arctic as ice-liquid-gas and the atmosphere as precipitation, for the spread of masses of heat reaching high latitudes and cold moving to low latitudes, and for the weathering of soils. Changing the “environment” inhibits or allows for them to exist AND affect their behaviour and nature. Furthermore, since the instability of an environment inhibits reaching equilibrium, the constant environmental change accelerates processes of degradation/mixing invalidating modelling.

Previous analyses part of the present line of research 201-2019 point to an increase in atmospheric mixing patterns for the global circulation, and in the NH most extensively.

May 14, 2015. A roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate: DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.27634.20165
September 8, 2015. Trans-Arctic circulation between Pacific and Atlantic Basins. A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD).  Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1697.5847
March 3, 2016. Seasonality Spring 2016. Continuous follow-up on my previous research assessing atmospheric dynamics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)  Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2833.8968
May 26, 2016. Atmospheric Circulation and the Mixing Zone. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34019.04645
July 1, 2016. Atmospheric mixing. Indian Basin June 2016 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.11803.98088
August 26, 2016. Aug 2016 Follow-up on previous assessments. Atmospheric Dynamics, Temperature Displacements, Atmospheric Mixing (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) DOI 10.13140/RG.2.2.24586.36804
September 14, 2016. Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.19874.63684
October 13, 2016. Global Mixing in Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.21255.60320
May 5, 2017. Mixing Dynamics keep shaping A Roller coaster of Temperatures over South Europe. Follow-up on previous research 5th May 17. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.16627.43043
June 9, 2017. “Mixing Dynamics” in the Atmosphere. A follow-up on previous research by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.23548.03209
March 14, 2018. Visualising Wind and Convective Forcing Driving Climatic Dynamics. Follow-up 14 March 2018 by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD  Pdf available at DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34233.06249
April 19, 2018. Climate, Weather and Energy. Using a Climatic Regime to explain Weather Events by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Research DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.27923.58406
March 3, 2019. A pattern of change in the atmosphere beyond considering global warming or cooling. That is, global mixing. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Registered DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.32693.73445

Rayleigh–Taylor” and a “Wobbly Polar Jet Stream”. An instability of an interface between two fluids of different densities.


A wobbly Polar Jet Stream represents a mixing pattern which makes the Polar Jet Stream just a visual indicator for the position of the collision between two fluids of different densities, cold and warm air. An instability of an interface between two fluids of different densities which occurs when the lighter fluid (warmer) is pushing the heavier fluid (colder). (previously discussed in January 13, 2016: Atmospheric Dynamics And Shapes (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.35973.65765 )

The Polar Jet Stream is a current as volatile as the currents in a river dictated by its water flow rate but within the perspective of time lapse and the slope in a current as the force generated by the curvature and rotation of the Earth.

The drainage of the “Arctic cold reservoir” is a process which started with a timid seasonal waving on the Polar Jet Stream. This process has become more extreme by the years, beginning to show as the collapse of a wall under the pressure on a tide gaining strength. Convective forcing from mid latitudes is invading the north pole forcing the displacement of cold masses into foreign territories. What began as a process marked by seasonal pulses, this is showing to maintain momentum throughout seasons. (Discussed in previous analyses. October 5, 2018 A New Pattern in Atmospheric Circulation drives towards an “unpredictable” New Climatic Scenario (Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.31673.62567. See home page for full index)

The results obtained from the line of research here presented suggest strongly that the energy being captured by “GHGs” in the atmosphere empower convective forcing dynamics inducing equatorial and mid-latitude circulation to expand over the Polar circulation in an intrusive way, displacing cold masses of air from Arcitc circulation.

Europe Forecast Temp 500 Diego Fdez-Sevilla10hPa Temp Diego Fdez-Sevilla

Such intrusions would increment the energy pool of the atmospheric masses contained at Arctic latitudes, and consequently, debilitating the thermal contrast which generates the configuration of a straight Polar Jet Stream and generates the configuration of what is known as Rayleigh–Taylor instability.

Atmospheric Dynamics and Climatic Implications


Overall, the line of  research here presented between 2013-2019 points to an increasing instability of the interface between two fluids of different densities, Meridional Planetary air masses and Polar air masses. And the resulting implications affect de synergies existent between biotic activity and the physical behaviour resultant from the three states of matter in  our planetary thermodinamic system.

Based on the line of research presented between 2013-2019 the processes dominating current developments would be described as:

The global Temperature measured is the resultant of mixing patterns in the atmosphere, Therefore an increase in mixing dynamics creates a pause in temperature raise, An increase in mixing dynamics show an increase in convective forcing, Convective forcing is the work resultant from an increase in atmospheric energy being incorporated in free state, The incorporation and spread of energy in free state into the atmosphere is carried and released by water vapour, An increase of water vapour in atmospheric circulation requires an increase in the thermal capacity of the atmosphere, The process of enhancing the thermal capacity of the atmosphere comes by increasing the concentration of GHGs, conc of aerosols and land surface albedo. Anthropogenic activity is linked with those processes.

______________________________________________

The Arctic case


While the correlation over time between SST and Atmospheric Temp at the Arctic is a “constant” defined by the behaviour of water in its transition between physical states, the concentration of water vapour at Arctic latitudes shows that the expansion of Mid-Latitudinal forcing has increased in time, supporting the validity of previous analyses presented in the current line of research.

November 17, 2016 Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.24688.35848Temperature is measured through an atmosphere with a molecular composition thermically active. The atmosphere is nitrogen, oxygen, and argon. The molecular composition which absorb and retain radiation affecting climatic regimes and ice cover anomalies are GHGs (CO2) being water vapour the major component as part of a feedback with the other GHGs. Through periods of low radiation (winter) temperature drops enough (as in the Arctic should be) so the molecular composition would be mostly N and O without water vapour since it would freeze. So the atmosphere in itself looses its thermal conductance by drying out. How ever, if there is a forced increment of GHGs, like the increase in water vapour measured in the latest decades, the thermal conductance of the air increases, carrying more energy in circulation by water vapour. Being increased the pool of energy carried at the Arctic decreases the amount of energy which the atmosphere can absorb from the oceans. Water releases energy until it freezes only if it the surrounding medium can take all the energy supplied by the ocean. Otherwise it absorbs energy only up to thermal equilibrium. If this equilibrium is higher than freezing there is no ice.
December 17, 2016 Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20129.81760“The Arctic is warming faster than other latitudes in the planet, like when you pour water into a glass continuously, there will be a moment in which the amount of water will start increasing faster outside the glass than inside.Equatorial and Mid latitudes have already taken what they can from Kinetic energy. This volume is overloaded and it is expanding to higher latitudes and longitudes. This has increased the mixing ratio between parts of the atmosphere otherwise compartmentalised through thermal contrasts.”
February 28, 2018 Arctic Warming as a Result of Convective Forcing by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD  Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34551.73125The energy contained by Mid-Latitudinal masses of air is strong enough to work its way towards the North Pole generating warm anomalies in the Arctic at tropospheric and stratospheric levels.The power expressed for such convective motion is enough to displace Cold Dense masses of air from the Arctic into lower latitudes. The feedback loop resultant addressed in previous assessments is showing throughout this winter 2018. Energy is being released from Latent Heat carried by water vapour at Arctic latitudes (as it can be seen in the Pacific and Atlantic intrusions) and more latent heat is also being released at Mid Latitudes with the intrusion of cold masses of air.

Altogether, convective motions moving towards the Arctic are triggering the release of Latent heat simultaneously in the Arctic and at Mid Latitudes.

The incoming energy released into the atmosphere has the potential of fuelling more convective motion in the atmosphere to the point of self perpetuation, inducing changes in the ENSO phase and all the other Indexes as well as promoting Heat waves towards the seasonal increase in Solar Radiation.

March 3, 2019 A pattern of change in the atmosphere beyond considering global warming or cooling. That is, global mixing. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Registered DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.32693.73445

______________Main Conclusions_____________

The main conclusion reached in the current line of research points out that; an increase in the amount of energy being in “free” state means that kinetic processes will increasingly dominate thermodynamic processes, inducing a transition in our Seasonal and Climatic regimes from being driven by Orbital Positioning to be driven by more erratic Kinetic processes. (see more related analysis)

In a process of change Tipping points come as stations in a train journey. Under the current atmospheric dynamics April 2019 we can say that we have passed couple of stations or tipping points already. First the system become overloaded warming up anomalously and next it has become unstable. Ultimately, the biggest implication raising from the current developments would not be found in seeing a gradual increase in atmospheric temperature BUT INSTEAD from seeing an increase in Atmospheric Global Mixing accelerating soil weathering. Such implications touch directly the survival capabilities of the human specie, and it concerns all strategies proposed to tackle the impact from climatic deviations which rely on keeping deteriorating the capabilities of the soils to sustain the biotic performance fighting towards reducing the increasing entropy/instabilities promoted from increasing the atmospheric pool of energy in free state.

The whole approach described in my theory can be observed by the increasing dynamics displayed in the atmosphere as Rayleigh-Taylor Instabilities due to an increase in global mixing between two fluids with different densities, those from the MidLatitudes and the Arctic.

Seasonal weather across latitudes shows to be increasingly driven by kinetic dynamics independent of planet tilt. Atmospheric dynamics through seasons keep momentum delivering patterns of global mixing between latitudes. While precipitation changes from solid to liquid based on Solar radiation, water vapour shows to have an increasing role in fuelling mid-latitudinal convective forcing dominating all seasons and latitudes, from Turkey to Alaska, from heavy snow to flooding. And all dissociated from Climate Indexes. This pattern has been discussed in my line of research 2013-2019.

Would the current developments show Proof of concept?

December 12, 2018 Persistent Mixing Dynamics in Atmospheric Circulation Generates a Seasonal Transition Marked by Kinetic Processes, Exothermic in Nature (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) (pdf DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.29966.20804

The overall conclusions can be summarised in five animations from previous analyses: An increase in the atmospheric energetic pool (1) fuels convective dynamics(2) forcing intrusions over the Arctic (3) as part of a global enhanced motion in global mixing (4). Altogether, seasonal transitions, weather patterns and biotic performance are linked being involved in the composition of the matter transferring energy within the planetary system(5). (more animations at the youtube channel)

2019 Contextualization

___________________________________

The Research


The approach followed in the line of research  here presented has discrepancies with the path followed by mainstream in aspects as such:

  • the ENSO is not a driver of atmospheric dynamics but instead it is driven by,

  • that the Polar vortex configuration is not “the cause for” atmospheric dynamics but “the result of”,

  • that SST are a consequence of atmospheric dynamics and not the trigger, and

  • that the biotic component in the planet is the only responsible for taming the  atmospheric dynamics shaping our climate, avoiding a complete release of energetic discharges from Sun´s exposition.

Furthermore, something in common for all previous ice ages is that none of them were an expansion in the territory for cold conditions while the centre of such area remained unaltered or even warmer than previous periods. Something we see now for the first time as far as my knowledge goes on ice cores.

My interpretation is that never through the previous periods of time there has been a coalescence in time and space (geologically speaking) for a simultaneous alteration in the stratification of the composition, structure and concentration of the components part of the thermodynamic ecosystem built upon the synergistic interactions between soils, gases and water. In geological terms the only way to move backwards in time is by a sequence of events but never when everything happens at once.

Based on the line of research presented between 2013-2019 the processes dominating current developments would be described as: The global Temperature measured is the resultant of mixing patterns in the atmosphere, Therefore an increase in mixing dynamics creates a pause in temperature raise, An increase in mixing dynamics show an increase in convective forcing, Convective forcing is the work resultant from an increase in atmospheric energy being incorporated in free state, The incorporation and spread of energy in free state into the atmosphere is carried and released by water vapour, An increase of water vapour in atmospheric circulation requires an increase in the thermal capacity of the atmosphere, The process of enhancing the thermal capacity of the atmosphere comes by increasing the concentration of GHGs, conc of aerosols and land surface albedo. Anthropogenic activity is linked with those processes.


Body of Work 2013-2019


Between 2014 and 2016 I shared analyses over real time developments in order to validate the hypothesis behind the conclusions offered in 2013. After 2016 I incorporated the process of validating those against time by re-publishing them in contrast with the developments seen in the following years. For the Winter 17-18 I actually have re-published previous assessments with a month or two prior to the period of time addressed in order to evaluate its potential representing a pattern.

In Feb 2017, the line of research presented in this blog reached a final stage in which its framework has demonstrated to hold and support the theoretical approach behind the study bringing original and innovative insights into the state of knowledge addressing environmental synergies by “Filling in and Finding out gaps of knowledge”.

March 23, 2017 Final Review in Progress. March 2017. From ENSO to Scientific Thinking by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.33915.82726
February 7, 2019 Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD_Jan 2019 Report on Climate and Atmosphere_ Filling in or Finding out the gaps around.pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.30663.75682

Theories have been formulated to explain, predict, and understand phenomena and, in many cases, to challenge and extend existing knowledge within the limits of critical bounding assumptions.

October 21, 2014 New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4859.3440
November 14, 2014 Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2500.0488
February 10, 2015 Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1975.7602/1
October 21, 2015 Discussing Climatic Teleconnections. Follow Up On My Previous Research (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2962.7605
January 20, 2017 Climate and Indexes. A dashboard of Confusion. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25016.96007
April 19, 2018 Climate, Weather and Energy. Using a Climatic Regime to explain Weather Events by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Research DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.27923.58406

Numerous Follow-ups over previous assessments have been published contrasting their validity against real-time developments (in the timeline section below use ctrl+F: “follow-up”) challenging and legitimizing the conclusions offered:

  • Models confuse the science in which those are applied. Factions opposed in views will not come together by using models. And even there is no need for it. Darwin did not need an algorithm and a model to identify genetic evolution. The observational evidence was so strong that unified the scientific community. And evolution is a process comparable with climate, reacts to pressures.
“The Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything” is … 42 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2400.2324 May 15, 2014
Debating Climate, Environment and Planetary evolution. Define your position. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.27332.73603 October 2, 2014
The scope of Environmental Science and scientific thought. From Thought-driven to Data-driven, from Critical Thinking to Data Management. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2007.0161 June 26, 2015
March 10, 2017 Modelling the “Model” and the Observer (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.17558.04169
February 6, 2018 Feb 2018. Climate Drifts and The Scientific Method of Waiting 30 Years. Follow up on previous assessments by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18823.09122
  • Arctic Amplification takes an assumption open for discussion: “sea ice acts as a barrier for the heat transport from the ocean to the atmosphere.” Actually, sea ice acts as a barrier for the heat transport *from the atmosphere to the ocean. The line of research offered taking Arctic SST as responsible for warming processes is not considering the thermodynamics behind changes in phase (liquid/solid/gas) and the difference between condensible and not condensible GHGs. Heat moves between locations AND phases. SST warming the atmosphere would loose heat, thus forming ice.
November 17, 2016 Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.24688.35848
December 17, 2016 Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20129.81760
February 28, 2018 Arctic Warming as a Result of Convective Forcing by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD  Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34551.73125
  • Between global warming and global cooling there is global mixing.
September 8, 2015 Trans-Arctic circulation between Pacific and Atlantic Basins. A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla).  Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1697.5847
May 26, 2016 Atmospheric Circulation and the Mixing Zone. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34019.04645
July 1, 2016 Atmospheric mixing. Indian Basin June 2016 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.11803.98088
August 26, 2016 Aug 2016 Follow-up on previous assessments. Atmospheric Dynamics, Temperature Displacements, Atmospheric Mixing (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

September 14, 2016 Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.19874.63684
October 13, 2016 Global Mixing in Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.21255.60320
May 5, 2017 Mixing Dynamics keep shaping A Roller coaster of Temperatures over South Europe. Follow-up on previous research 5th May 17. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.16627.43043
June 9, 2017 “Mixing Dynamics” in the Atmosphere. A follow-up on previous research by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.23548.03209
March 14, 2018 Visualising Wind and Convective Forcing Driving Climatic Dynamics. Follow-up 14 March 2018 by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD  Pdf available at DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34233.06249
April 19, 2018 Climate, Weather and Energy. Using a Climatic Regime to explain Weather Events by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Research DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.27923.58406
  • Anthropogenic transformations over the structure and composition of the three phases of the environment (Gaseous-Atmosphere, Solid- Land Use and Cover, Liquid-Water bodies) have reduced CxHxOx and increased CxOx+HxOx, CxHx, as well as albedo, … altering the energetic balance in the thermodynamic system which conforms our Climatic regimes.
July 24, 2015 Solar Activity and Human Activity, Settling Their Environmental Liability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36702.33606
March 3, 2017 Thermodynamic Ecosystems by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.32238.10566
May 26, 2017 The CO2 Greening Effect Review. CO2 Makes Headlines To Grow Like Trees, Shaping Different Forests Offering Different Views (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.16286.33601
March 23, 2017 Final Review in Progress. March 2017. From ENSO to Scientific Thinking by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.33915.82726

You can look at the whole project (more than 200 analyses published between 2013 and 2018) published at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com and also you will find some of those publications with a DOI in my profile at ResearchGate

Framework on Weather, Climate, Energy, Environment and Man


The question  driving the whole debate on Climatic Deviations from “a Normal”, or Climatic Drift, focus most of the methodologies on temperature.

However I have followed a different approach in my analyses looking at Gradients of Energy in all its forms. That is why in 2014 I offered my thoughts as a theory of practical applications addressing variations in the gradients of energy found in the atmosphere.

Energy fuels the work done by warm masses of air displacing colder masses of air in their path. That increases mixing patterns generating anomalies in temperature.

The whole approach described in my theory can be observed by the increasing dynamics displayed in the atmosphere as Rayleigh-Taylor Instabilities due to an increase in global mixing between two fluids with different densities, those from the MidLatitudes and the Arctic. (January 13, 2016 Atmospheric Dynamics And Shapes (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.35973.65765

“Behind an increase in the amount of work carried out by masses of air there is an increase in the energy fuelling such dynamics.”

Energy can only be transferred, not created or destroyed. So more work means more energy in circulation. More energy in circulation can only be sustained by a substance carrying it. Either if we consider that the energy driving anomalies comes from the Sun or from the Oceansthe carrier has to be in the atmosphere in order for the energy to produce work. And the body loosing heat cools down.

A corridor of wind over the Arctic is triggered by a conversion of Temperature into work, convection and advection, which are the result of mixing masses of air. As it was published in previous analyses, such Trans-Arctic connection between Atlantic and Pacific Basins is part of a pattern increasing the mixing ratio between masses of air otherwise separated by thermal compartmentalization, like the Polar Jet Stream. An increase in the dispersion of energetic forms have different outcomes, one of which it would be a temporary reduction in the average temperature resultant for the mixing between Cold (Arctic) and warm (Mid-Latitude) masses of air as well as in altitude (SSW).

Subsequently, “temperature” is less reliable than looking at “work” seen even in the “mild” events.

(see ref- Statistical Significance. The Scary Side of Being Mild (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.21934.61767

In the framework presented throughout the line of research published in this blog (and researchgate) it has been considered “Climate” as being defined by the amount of energy free to do work. In other words, energy free to promote weather events. Accordingly, in my research I define Climate by the amount and state of energy in circulation, and Weather by the use of this energy.(ref)

Consequently, with the definition applied for Climate and Weather, my definition of Climate Drift is:

“the deviation from equilibrium of the conditions allowing the perpetuity of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in a micro and macro ecosystem. This situation can be due to changes in any component of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes can be either a change in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality or rates in the flows of energy pre-established OR/AND the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components/forces and energy sinks or sources in any part of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance.”

In my assessments I have defended that the increase in the energy pool at mid-latitudes would ultimately create an scenario with an overcharged atmosphere. That would reduce the contrasts with which to create and maintain stability in the structure required to condense energy in singular events, like hurricanes. Giving more relevance to the single contrast between Ocean/continental masses. However, the opening of the Arctic circulation through a weak Jet Stream would reduce the pressure in the containment absorbing the condensation of energy at mid-latitudes, expanding into a new volume.

Accordingly, hadley circulation gets affected (see also) generating new patterns of turbulence at the ITCZ (hurricanes, typhoons, …) as well as it gets influenced Arctic mixing zones with lower latitudes.

In this scenario TCs are generated under an increase in the mixing ratio of an unstable atmospheric circulation dominated by kinetic energy transferred by water vapour thanks to GHGs, and immersed in an overcharged atmosphere with no place where to diffuse its energy, becoming resilient as long as they stay over the ocean. So they endure like a piece of an ice rock in cold water.

About Sea Surface Temperatures, my assessments take SST as subsequent conditions driven by wind shear. So the interaction between masses of air in circulation allows or inhibits SST developments. Once the scenario is built on SST this becomes a “battle field” conditioning the subsequent interaction between the following masses of air and the characteristics of the “grounds” where the game will be played (sort of speak). Like the effect of the ice conditions in an ice hockey match.

El Niño is an event which happens in a very small portion of the Earth, it is related to the temperature of a very thin layer of the Ocean in depth, a small percentage of the area occupied by the whole Oceanic masses, and even smaller when it is integrated in the multidimensional space combining Ocean and Atmosphere.

Biological productivity amazonia atmmospheric circulation DiegoFdezSevilla

It is kind of intriguing to think why it has been so easy to conclude that such small portion of the entire system is driving it as a whole. It is like considering that the flowering of plants drives the seasons. Similarly it could be said about using SST at the Arctic to justify altogether; the lack of ice, warmer temperatures at tropospheric level and even at stratospheric level. There is not enough energy in the SST of such small area as it is the Arctic to justify all those convective dynamics.

It can not surprise me enough the fact that there is a scientific agreement followed by theories such the Arctic Amplification and Stephan Boltzmann black body radiation, which focus on single locations as sources of energy triggering warming events. Arctic amplification focus the attention in the Arctic, and the absence of ice decreasing albedo, to justify the location for the source of energy warming the atmosphere in the Sea Surface Waters. And it does it even considering the absence of Solar radiation, which in itself discards any process of albedo absorbing and re-emitting energy. Accordingly with their theory, Arctic amplification suggests that Arctic circulation affects circulation at mid-latitudes, however, all the dynamics we see point in the opposite direction. Mid latitudinal forcing pushes against Arctic restrictions through the Jet Stream, displacing cold masses of air in their path, using water vapour as the carrier of the energy feeding convective motions.

Animations from previous publications:

Stephan Boltzmann relation describing radiative gradients of temperature rely entirely on an idealized body homogeneous in composition and even pressure. Such statement neglects the nature of the processes involved in the transference of energy found in the atmosphere where there are simultaneously three states of matter, gaseous, liquid and solid, numerous compounds different in molecular composition and behaviour, as well as an active thermodynamic system made of heterogeneous cells containing independent microsystems of entropy, interacting in a macro system out from equilibrium. (more here).

So opposite from a black body, the distribution of radiation and heat across an heterogeneous system delivers an uneven distribution marked by the nature of the connections built between micro and macro systems, ecosystems and abiotic systems, gaseous, liquid, solid and multi-estate systems. It becomes evident that there is not a distribution of temperatures following a gradient defined by Stephan-Boltzmann estimations because the transference of energy is heterogeneous due to the heterogeneous composition and disposition of the matter states in the planetary system. By understanding those limitations we can identify the expansion of energetic pulses throughout the atmosphere avoiding focusing the attention over the temperatures and instead, focusing the attention into identifying the “work” expressed by the dynamics in motion, either as forms of precipitation, trans-latitudinal transportation of matter (Water Vapour), transference of radiation (SSW), discharges of electricity and displacements of cold and heat waves.

In my research I have been very persistent trying to highlight how much relevance it is given to a small area in size and depth driving global circulation as it is the SST at the Eq Pacific while an area of the same size and even more depth could be identified in the Amazon or by the change suffered in Land cover by agriculture at global scale.

biological-productivity_amazonia-and-atmospheric-circulation-diego-fdezsevilla

 

Biological productivity amazonia atmmospheric circulation DiegoFdezSevilla

Land use change Compilation by Diego FdezSevilla Publication Domesticating Nature

We have to consider that SST are measured in the 5 or less m of the Ocean meanwhile Forests can occupy more than 15 meters in depth. And both are sources of the latent heat carried out in the atmosphere which fuels convective dynamics dominating intrusions over the Arctic.

Among those analyses published in my line of research some time ago studying the impact from changes in Land cover over atmospheric dynamics:

  • April 23, 2015 Matching Features Between Land Surface and Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20035.30247. https://wp.me/p403AM-xK
  • June 10, 2016 The Butterfly Effect on Arctic Circulation. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) https://wp.me/p403AM-12H

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Discussion


There have been some assessments showing major discrepancies between the line of research presented here and main stream scientific coverage. The assessments are about the concept of climate drift, the link between the Polar Vortex and tropospheric circulation, the role played by SST and the ENSO, the dynamics explaining abnormal Arctic Warming and sea ice cover,  the synergistic implications from the biotic component, solar forcing and the scientific methodology applied.

Polar Vortex

November 14, 2014 Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)  Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2500.0488
December 18, 2015 Climate and weather December 2015. Another Polar Vortex another Heat Wave? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.19966.48968
October 25, 2016 Another Heat Wave Another Polar Vortex II … Broken (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.13418.93124

Climate Drift

October 21, 2014 (Updated 22/Dec/14) New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4859.3440
February 10, 2015 (UPGRADED 24th March2015) Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1975.7602/1
Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Drift. Are we there yet? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) July 2, 2015
September 2, 2016 Climate Drift, The True Meaning of Things and the Drift of Those. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)
February 6, 2018 Feb 2018. Climate Drifts and The Scientific Method of Waiting 30 Years. Follow up on previous assessments by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18823.09122

Arctic Amplification

November 17, 2016 Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)
December 17, 2016 Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20129.81760

SST and ENSO

October 16, 2015 SST Anomalies and Heat Waves. Are They Not All Just Heat Displacements? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.23741.05608
December 11, 2015 Could It Be El Niño The New “Wolf” Coming? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.3238.2801
March 22, 2016 Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)  Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1968.5521
June 23, 2017 “Seasonal Outlook. June 2017 (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25428.91528

Solar Forcing

April 10, 2014 Exploring the effects of humanly generated factors in the role played by Solar activity in the climate. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
July 24, 2015 Solar Activity and Human Activity, Settling Their Environmental Liability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36702.33606
September 22, 2016 Solar Forcing in Our Climatic and Atmospheric Dynamics. Location, Location, Location (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.10303.20647

The Biotic Synergy

June 26, 2014 Biological Productivity and its Influence on Cloud Formation. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
December 22, 2014 Biological Productivity, Amazonia and Atmospheric Circulation. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.10771.99363
May 7, 2015 Domesticating Nature. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Rsearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36812.51848
April 22, 2016 Plant an Idea and Then a Tree… But Which Ones? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.3977.0489
March 3, 2017 Thermodynamic Ecosystems by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.32238.10566
May 26, 2017 Review. CO2 Makes Headlines To Grow Like Trees, Shaping Different Forests Offering Different Views (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.16286.33601

The Scientific Method

The scope of Environmental Science and scientific thought. From Thought-driven to Data-driven, from Critical Thinking to Data Management. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2007.0161 June 26, 2015
Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Drift. Are we there yet? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) July 2, 2015
March 10, 2017 Modelling the “Model” and the Observer (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.17558.04169
February 6, 2018 Feb 2018. Climate Drifts and The Scientific Method of Waiting 30 Years. Follow up on previous assessments by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18823.09122
May 3, 2019 Methodological Biases in Climatic Postures (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)

Teleconnections

January 20, 2017 Climate and Indexes. A dashboard of Confusion. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25016.96007
April 19, 2018 Climate, Weather and Energy. Using a Climatic Regime to explain Weather Events by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Research DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.27923.58406

In the line of research presented in this blog it has been discussed the impact over energy flows derived from solar activity, land use and surface, atmospheric composition of GHGs and aerosols as well as the water cycle.

Based on the previous observations and assessments presented in this line of research, the state of the stratospheric circulation at both poles suggest that there is no need to have sudden warming process at stratospheric level in order to have a broken polar vortex. Such scenario was observed in October 2016 by the configuration of the polar vortex split at the NH without a stratospheric localised strong warming meanwhile the South pole was suffering a Sudden stratospheric warming without splitting the polar vortex.

But also, neither is required a broken polar Vortex in order to have displacements of cold polar masses of air into lower latitudes. Such configuration comes from the convective forcing triggered at lower altitudes by warm masses of air moving towards the poles in latitude and altitude.

A process of convection and advection moving warm masses of air towards the poles displacing cold masses of air in their way moving into Arctic circulation.

This behaviour can be explained by considering the thermal properties of the atmosphere as a system capable of carrying energy across higher latitudes and altitudes without dissipation and in enough concentration to affect the configuration of the polar vortex from the bottom up. Such capacity to keep momentum across latitudes and altitude conserving thermal energy can only be explained by an enhancement in the thermal properties of the atmosphere, which are directly related with its composition.

Throughout my line of research I suggest that there is one approach which is able to unify all events in a single principle. The incorporation of energy into the atmosphere is shaping the atmospheric dynamics we see affecting the behaviour of currents, storms, rain rates, lightning events, wind regimes and temperature variations.

The atmosphere might have trespassed a tipping point absorbing energy making to tremble its previous structural configuration in Latitude and Altitude.

The constant contact of warm masses of air from Low and Mid-Latitudes with those from polar latitudes has worn off the strength of the Polar Jet Stream. Such circumstance has allowed the intrusion of warm masses of air into higher latitudes and altitudes, increasing atmospheric mixing dynamics. These convective intrusions are fuelled by the energy carried within water vapour, inducing the displacements  of other colder masses of air in altitude and latitude, increasing the mixing ratio between otherwise compartmentalized parts of the atmosphere.

Such circumstance has allowed the atmosphere to spread the energy carried by water vapour from Mid Latitudes into Polar Latitudes (Arctic latitudes), being able of holding more energy than before since it is not dissipated into their surroundings when moving across latitudes.

If rain at the deserts would be a strong indicator of something changing, increasing “rain” instead of snow at higher latitudes would have a post-effect over the atmospheric circulation, and generate feedback loops.

This scenario has induced a trans-Arctic interconnectivity between oceanic basins which has happened with and without the need for a strong sign of the ENSO. Therefore, this would suggest that exchange of masses of air between the Mid low latitudes with the Arctic, through the Polar Jet Stream, is the dominant driver in atmospheric circulation defining the behaviour of equatorial winds. But also, the configuration of the NH Polar Vortex.

Altogether the research here presented points to a new scenario in atmospheric dynamics in which the Arctic circulation, previously isolated from Subtropical influence by the Polar Jet Stream, has become open to be involved in the atmospheric dynamics for the Pacific and Atlantic basins. This new interconnection will affect the atmospheric dynamics around the whole North Hemisphere. But also, by being our atmosphere a close system, subsidiary, such alteration would affect dynamics at the Equator and due to symmetric compensation between Hemispheres, moreover into the Southern Hemisphere.

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The Anthropogenic Link


As a biologist myself I find intriguing to see that our environment is predominately not described in biological terms.

Einstein made it very clear, our environment is a relative proportion of free energy and fixed energy in mass. There is one process in our system fixing E into mass, and one releasing E from mass. The “relative efficiency” of both processes is what is defining the behaviour of our thermodynamic environment.

There is an interference from human activities changing the composition and structure of the three phases of the environment:

  • solid; land cover and use affects albedo and changes in evapotranspiration rates due to biotic disruptions on wild population functionality,
  • the liquid phase through alterations over the water cycles, distribution of water bodies, and humidity of soils as well as affecting circulation patterns due to coastal deterioration and deformation, but also, indirectly due to alterations in the composition of the inert and biotic matter in the Oceans due to pollution and modifications in acidification and salinity related with atmospheric composition and thermal properties.
  • and gaseous phase due to alterations in the composition of the atmosphere from GHGs as well as aerosols, altogether affecting its thermodynamic behaviour.

The deviation from equilibrium of those conditions disrupt the perpetuation of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in the micro and macro ecosystem.

The definitive link between human activities and atmospheric dynamics is under constant discussion since climatic developments are mainly approached from the field of physics.

However, the direct link between Anthropogenic activities and climatic developments are found in biological terms with thermodynamic implications:

Human activity has reduced CxHxOx compounds and increased free CxOx+HxOx.

Furthermore, anthropogenic activities release Energy from breaking structures (C-C) while biochemical processes assimilate energy fixing it into stable structures (CxHxOx).

Anthropogenic activity is simultaneously, releasing energy from a biochemically fixed state into the Planetary System’s Pool, at the same time that, it adds thermoactice compounds as CO2 and H2O. But furthermore, through this activity of constant transformational and processing, human activities are also debilitating the functionality of the biochemical processes capable of absorbing such perturbation, the endogenous ecosystems.

Einstein and his developments were mainly applied in physics due to the use that it was made of his work with the aim to manipulate energy in times of conflict, or to understand space. The equation is simple E=mc2. The language of physics has dominated the discussion over physical developments since then and it has been established as the logical translation of climatic developments. However, in the current times, the role of scientific understanding demands to move beyond the barriers of language, either between semantic cultural languages and between disciplines.

Being myself a Biologist involved in Atmospheric dynamics applying physics to explain such a complex subject as it is climatic evolution might seem like the tale of the child claiming that the Emperor has no clothes.

And yet, it seems to me evident that a thermodynamic system as it is our planet, can not scape from the most basic and powerful understanding of our contemporary scientific evolution. If E=MC2, and the anthropogenic activity is increasing the transformation of M into Energy in the system (from burning Mass from fossils and vegetable components, as well as by liberating other forms of energy such as gravimetric in Dams, Solar, transformation of raw materials, etc,) such transformation rate will move the balance in the thermodynamic behaviour of the whole system, and the rate of such deviation from equilibrium will be related with the speed at which the transformation rate between E/M is performed: M>(c)2

________Conclusions_________

March 23, 2017 Final Review in Progress. March 2017. From ENSO to Scientific Thinking by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.33915.82726

The mere identification of seeing: numbers of trees decreased over 46% from wild ecosystems being affected through time due to agriculture, increased levels of urbanization, deforestation, same for soil degradation, decrease in O2 conc, and an increase in GHG, can not be left out of the equation when considering what it is and what it is not “natural variability”, and the future expected for our thermodynamic planetary system.

Our planet is getting fat on GHG, lacking O2, space to grow natural ecosystems and capacity to fix and store energy. Biology integrates all components in an ecosystem, yet it is missing in climatology assessments.

The main conclusion from the present study researching synergistic interactions between all transformations seen over the Liquid, Gaseous and solid phases of our global Environment indicates that anthropogenic activity is forcing our environment into A System Becoming Dominated By Free Energy. (pdf Registered at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18509.13289)

Our Planet is made from the combination of all the organisms in a given area and the abiotic elements which affect them. An ecosystem is an open system because it can exchange energy or materials with other ecosystems. Earth is a closed system with respect to nutrients and chemicals, but open with respect to energy. There is an underestimated synergistic relationship between biogeochemical energy flows and those identified in weather patterns and atmospheric dynamics. For too many years it has been considered that the Earth is a garden populated by “elements” offering colourful pleasure and comfort. In fact, the biochemical processes undertaken by our ecosystems function as the most advanced piece of technology known by Humans, responsible for the quality of our air, waters and soils, as much as the sole and unique mechanism capable of interacting with the thermodynamic pressure imposed by the constant exposure of the planet to Sun’s radiation. Until we see the real function of biological processes as climate regulators we will not realise in how much trouble we are.

The biotic component of our environmental system is the only one capable of interacting against thermodynamic entropy, against instability. And for as long as Human activity can not replicate such mechanisms in equilibrium with the resources consumed, it might be time to think about domesticating Human Activities instead of following the obsession for Domesticating Natural Behaviour and Geoengineer our Weather. 

_____________________________________________________

________Overall Conclusions________

An increase in the amount of energy being in “free” state means that kinetic processes will increasingly dominate thermodynamic processes, inducing a transition in our Seasonal and Climatic regimes from being driven by Orbital Positioning to be driven by more erratic Kinetic processes. (see related analysis)

Examples of processes releasing ENERGY FROM ANTHROPOGENIC ACTIVITIES

From previous publication “Domesticating Nature” (2015)

Atmospheric Oxygen Levels

Atmospheric Oxygen Levels are Decreasing Oxygen levels are decreasing globally due to fossil-fuel burning. The changes are too small to have an impact on human health, but are of interest to the study of climate change and carbon dioxide. These plots show the atmospheric O2 concentration relative to the level around 1985. The observed downward trend amounts to 19 ‘per meg’ per year. This corresponds to losing 19 O2 molecules out of every 1 million O2 molecules in the atmosphere each year.

Scripps O2 Global Oxygen Measurements The Scripps O2 Program measures changes in atmospheric oxygen levels from air samples collected at stations around the world. This sampling network provides a global and hemispheric perspective on oxygen variability. The Scripps O2 Program is based at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at La Jolla, California and is under the direction of Professor Ralph Keeling.


_____________Imagery and Methodology_________

Nowadays, there are many divisions between disciplines due to the isolated nature of their specific language and methodologies. I might not use the right vocabulary for all the fields which I discuss, or the right data or the right reasoning. But when nobody is able to offer a consensus over what is going on, I wonder, what is right this days?.

The line of research presented in this blog describes a scenario where things happen for a reason, and where there are reasons for things to happen. No model offers that much. Meanwhile “reasons” explain probabilities, models use “probabilities” to let you figure out the reasons.

After leaving months, even years of time to expose my conclusions for public discussion and review, once those have no faced any criticism or arguments refuting their value, I create a pdf file and a DOI publishing them at my profile in Researchgate. In order to maintain their genuineness and legitimate innovative nature, I keep its original state so those can be compared with any copy made by any third party at any time. For your own references and review over its originality over time with respect to other publications via scientific papers and/or news reports, you can compare the publications at the blog and researchgate with the records archived:

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________2019 Research FOLLOW-UP ___________

In research what it is relevant it is not always what it is New, but what it doesn´t get old. One stage of research comes when looking into offering something New; New data, New interpretations, New methods, making “the News”, being the First … And then, once the “New” has been offered, it is all about confirmation, re-evaluation, validation, review and application. In my line of research, at one stage I have offered New interpretations on climatic developments adopting New points of view addressing New synergistic interactions delivering New Conclusions and Implications in weather patterns, atmospheric circulation and biotic performance. In a following stage I have re-shared all those previous “New assessments” to be contrasted against real time developments been unfolded in the next years. In 2014 I was told by a lead scientist in climatic developments Prof. Jennifer Francis: “The topic you’ve written about is extremely complicated and many of your statements have not yet been verified by peer-reviewed research.” I was challenged for a deeper understanding of the state of the research, knowledge of atmospheric dynamics and analyses supporting my statements.

Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Reply to Prof. Jennifer Francis (February 2015) ResearchgateDOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1975.7602/1

After 200+ analyses 2014-18, have I done enough?diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com

This year 2018/19 the progression of the climatic dynamics seen show to support the conclusions discussed throughout all the analyses performed in the line of research presented in this blog:

  •  The ENSO is not a driver of convective forcing over the NH,
  • Convective forcing from Mid-latitudinal towards the Arctic circulation has wear off the gradients of temperature generating a strong Polar Jet Stream.
  •  Arctic warming occurs through atmospheric intrusions from Mid Latitudes,
  • The collapse of the Polar Jet Stream has opened Arctic circulation to Mid-Latitudinal circulation intrusions allowing Trans-Arctic circulation between Pacific and Atlantic Basins.
  •  The global Temperature measured is the resultant of mixing patterns in the atmosphere,
  • Therefore an increase in mixing dynamics creates a pause in temperature raise,
  • An increase in mixing dynamics show an increase in convective forcing,
  • Convective forcing is the work resultant from an increase in atmospheric energy being incorporated in free state,
  • The incorporation and spread of energy in free state into the atmosphere is carried and released by water vapour
  • An increase of water vapour in atmospheric circulation requires an increase in the thermal capacity of the atmosphere
  • The process of enhancing the thermal capacity of the atmosphere comes by increasing the concentration of GHGs, conc of aerosols and land surface albedo.
  • Several processes carried out by human activityare linked with the previous assessment: human activity reduces the capacity of the biotic environment to fix energy from free state into inert state by reducing biochemical processing and storage (CxHxOx photosynthesis and biomass) and increases atmospheric concentrations of GHGs by releasing CO2 and H2O into the atmosphere. Also, land use and covertransformations increase albedo, industrial activities increase aerosols and the compartmentalization of water affects water cycles.
  • In a thermodynamic system the energetic pool is the sum of the amount of energy in free statecapable of doing work, and the energy fixed in an inert form as part of mass. The amount of energy in free state is proportional to the amount of energy fixed in inert form as mass (E=mc2). The release of energy from its inert form increases the amount of energy in free state to do work. Energy is not created, neither destroyed. The transformation of the three phases of the environment forced by human activities, gaseous (atmosphere), liquid (water cycle) and solid (land use and cover), increases the amount of energy in free state capable of promoting all forms of work; convective forcing, strong winds, solid and liquid precipitation, lightning, dust storms, heat waves, cold displacements, and ultimately, and increase in atmospheric mixing in altitude and across latitudes.

Throughut the Winter 2019, cold “and warm” dynamics at tropospheric and stratospheric levels have happened simultaneously. And if there is a progression it comes by seeing through the seasons warm temperatures moving north followed by a stratospheric Warming process which promotes a weak Polar Vortex configuration.

Despite all the theories available my interpretation is simple about what is happening, between global warming and global cooling we are living under a process of global mixing, promoted by an increase in the atmospheric energy pool, using water vapour as the carrier of such energetic extra thanks to an enhanced thermal capacity generated from increasing GHGs, Albedo and Aerosols. The origin of this imbalance in the energetic pool driving the thermodynamic system can be associated with changes in the composition, structure, location and concentration of the components integrating the Planetary system. Human activities can be associated with all those changes.

About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Data policy The products processed by "Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD" are made available to the public for educational and/or scientific purposes, without any fee on the condition that you credit "Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD" as the source. Copyright notice: © Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD 2013-2019 orcid: orcid.org/0000-0001-8685-0206 and the link to its source at diegofdezsevilla.wordpress or permanent DOI found at Reearchgate. Should you write any scientific publication on the results of research activities that use Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD products as input, you shall acknowledge the Diego Fdez-Sevilla's PhD Project in the text of the publication and provide an electronic copy of the publication (d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com). If you wish to use the Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD products in advertising or in any commercial promotion, you shall acknowledge the Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Project and you must submit the layout to Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD for approval beforehand (d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com). The work here presented has no economic or institutional support. Please consider to make a donation to support the means for making sustainable the energy, time and resources required. Also any sponsorship or mentoring interested would be welcome. Intellectual Property This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! For those publications missing at the ResearchGate profile vinculated with this project DOIs can be generated on demand by request at email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com. **Author´s profile: Born in 1974. Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my work previous to 2013 as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After 12 years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, in 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my own line of research. In the current competitive scenario, in order to demonstrate my capacities instead of just moving my cv waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I decided to invest my energy and time in opening my own line of research sharing it in this blog. In March 2017 the budget reserved for this project has ended and its weekly basis time frame discontinued until new forms of economic and/or institutional support are incorporated into the project. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this platform and at LinkedIn has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my achievements and that the Intellectual Property Rights generated with the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in similar lines of research. **Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome as well as any approach exploring professional opportunities.** In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2019, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects, don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access and DOIs found at the Framework and Timeline page and ResearchGate. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2018. Filling in or/and Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/ ***
This entry was posted in Energy Balance, Environmental Resilience, Extreme climatic events, Filling in, Influence of Continentality, Polar vortex and Jet Stream, Solar activity, Water vapour and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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