(updated 28/April/2016) Severe weather warning 27 April 2016 USA (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)


Severe weather warning 27 April 2016 USA (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

(Update 28 April 2016 at the bottom. After 12hours from publishing this entrance and under the current scenarios I would reduce from drastic any type of warning but I would keep a level of warning aiming for precaution and constant awareness due to the atmospheric instability dictating the weather dynamics over USA in the current days. See the updates from NOAA at the bottom.)

NOAA report for 27 April 2016))

27 April 2016. I believe that the present conditions over the North American Continent deserves attention from all of you living in EEUU in particular at and around Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas and eastwards those areas. Looking at the atmospheric conditions and dynamics occurring over the North American continent I believe that there is a high probability of facing tornado events in those areas over 27 April evening and onwards (recent images 20:00 UTC). Such scenario has been also highlighted by a fellow member of my network at LinkedIn  Len R. Holliday (Founder and CEO at Lead Weather Forecaster for Stormy Weather Service, Inc. See link here).  I completely agree with his concerns and assessments. Be aware and safe.

Severe weather warning 27 April 2016 Diego Fdez-SevillaFrom NOAA National Weather Service Current Weather Warnings.

EEUU Warning NOAA by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

Follow the evolution of the weather in their webpage: Link

noaa Forecast 27 April 2016

 _______________________________

Update 28 April 2016. 10:00UTC, 12:00 Local. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)

NOAA Storm and tornado reports for 27 April 2016.

NOAA report 28 April 2016 composition by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

Filtered Tornado Reports. Source

Forecast from the NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center College Park (Update 28 April 2016. 10:00UTC, 12:00 Local. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)

Valid 12Z Thu Apr 28 2016 – 12Z Sat Apr 30 2016. Source.

Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain for portions of the southern U.S.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains and over parts of the Southern Mid-Atlantic.

Heavy rain possible over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the Central Plains.

Snow over parts of the Central Rockies.

noaa forecast 28 April 2016

A strong storm over the Middle Mississippi Valley will slowly weaken and move southeastward to the Carolinas by Friday evening. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the front from the Ohio Valley to parts of the Central/Eastern Gulf Coast that will move eastward to parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast and the Central/Eastern Gulf Coast by Thursday afternoon. The showers and thunderstorms will move off the East Coast by early Friday morning. Rain will also develop over parts of the Northern High Plains eastward to parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes that will move eastward to parts of the Northeast while extending westward to parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley by Thursday evening.

The rain will extend from parts of the Mid-Atlantic to parts of the Great Lakes on Friday morning that will be confined to parts of the Northern Mid-Atlantic by Friday evening. A second storm over the Great Basin/Southwest will move eastward to Texas by Friday evening. The system will produce rain and higher elevation snow over parts of the Great Basin/Central Rockies and parts of Central/Southern California eastward to parts of the Southern Rockies on Thursday morning. The rain and higher elevation snow will expand into parts of the Northern Intermountain Region to parts of the Northern High Plains by Thursday evening. By Friday morning, the rain and higher elevation snow will be confined to parts of the Northern Intermountain Region to parts of the Great Basin and the Central/Southern Rockies. On Friday afternoon into evening, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Southern High Plains southeastward to parts of the Western Gulf Coast. The showers and thunderstorms will expand into parts of the Central High/Central Plains and into parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley overnight Thursday into Friday morning. By Friday evening the showers and thunderstorms will expand into parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley.

In addition by Friday morning, a third system will move onshore over Pacific Northwest moving to parts of the Great Basin/Central California by Friday evening. Rain will begin over parts of the Pacific Northwest on Friday morning that will extend from the Northwest to parts of the Rockies and the Southwest by Friday evening.

allfcsts_loop_ndfd

National Forecast Maps. National Weather Service. Source.

Accuweather report. Source. (Update 28 April 2016. 10:00UTC, 12:00 Local. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)

During late Thursday night, some communities will be hit with storms packing large hail, damaging wind gusts and flash flooding.

“There could be an isolated tornado across the Texas Panhandle shortly after storms fire during the late-afternoon and evening hours on Thursday,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Brett Rathbun said.

The severe weather threat will broaden over the southern Plains on Friday into Friday night.

During this time, the potential for dangerous and damaging storms will extend from southern Kansas to central and northeastern Texas and eastward into parts of western Arkansas and Louisiana.

Author’s note

The activity published on this blog is aimed to enhance discussion over the implications behind the synergies between atmospheric dynamics on environmental systems. Usually I go beyond the “news report” and add my interpretation over those factors which I consider to be relevant, either to “fill in or find out gaps of knowledge” (which the blog’s motto). However, this is not the time to discuss the meaning behind these events. Publishing this info is a priority in order to spread the information and allow any measure to take action before any interpretation made. If the developments are not as serious as I have interpreted, it will be my own responsibility and I would rather prefer to be overcautious than regretful. (Diego Fdez-Sevilla 22:00UTC-00.00h Local 28 April 2016. Spain )

Update 28 April 2016

There is one reference I would like make part of the reasons behind my decision to include the present publication in my line of research. That comes from the atmospheric dynamics seen over North America in the recent years.

The most recent example comes from the discussion which I presented in the following post a year ago, in Feb 2015:

From this publication: “Based on the actual conditions and the events which followed the Low pressure from the 23th Jan I would assume that the probabilities of seeing the development of a new storm over the East coast of North America are high. I would say that the level of uncertainty relies on the possible coincidence of finding currents of the Gulf of Mexico moving North, carrying moisture falling in form of precipitation and generating a thermal contrast enough to fuel strong winds. On the other hand, without a warm and wet current of air arriving from the Gulf of Mexico what is left is the high probability of finding cold masses of air being carried by a Low Pressure on the North side of the Jet Stream moving towards the East coast of the EEUU.”

“From my research I have observed a pattern in the Pacific circulation which keeps bringing low pressures from the low latitudinal western side into the high latitudinal east side.

Once there, the Polar Jet Stream drags low pressures, like drops, across the North American continent into the Atlantic. If they meet “warm and wet” currents from the Gulf of Mexico coming northwards in the EEUU, or with warm and wet masses of air in the Mediterranean sea, the mixture becomes energised in a localised space generating strong discharges in the form of Wind and precipitation.”

My assessment over the atmospheric dynamics driving weather patterns over North America seems to keep active dominating the present conditions based on the animations created from the GFS model from 20th April 2016 to 28th April 2016:

GFS PMSL 2016 April 20 Diego Fdez-SevillaGFS PWTR 2016 April 20 Diego Fdez-Sevilla GFS_PRCP-TCLD-PMSL_2016-04-20 2016 April 20 Diego Fdez-Sevilla GFS_WS250 2016 April 20 Diego Fdez-Sevilla

 

—xxx—

PerspectiveSince October 2013 I have been studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.

Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License,  WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.

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About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Citing This Site "Title", published online "Month"+"Year", retrieved on "Month""Day", "Year" from http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! DOIs can be generated on demand by request at email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com for those publications missing at the ResearchGate profile vinculated with this project. **Author´s profile: Born in 1974. Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my work previous to 2013 as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After 12 years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, in 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my own line of research. In the current competitive scenario, in order to demonstrate my capacities instead of just moving my cv waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I decided to invest my energy and time in opening my own line of research sharing it in this blog. In March 2017 the budget reserved for this project has ended and its weekly basis time frame discontinued until new forms of economic and/or institutional support are incorporated into the project. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this platform and at LinkedIn has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my achievements and that the Intellectual Property Rights generated with the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in similar lines of research. **Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome as well as any approach exploring professional opportunities to be part of.** In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2017, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2017. Filling in or Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/
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59 Responses to (updated 28/April/2016) Severe weather warning 27 April 2016 USA (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

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