Climate. Too Simple To Be It (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)
(last update 8 Nov 2016 16.34 GMT+1)
When trying to get into the core of a complex matter one of the most frightening feeling comes from the challenge of not overseeing the obvious being drowned on complexity.
Science is made from learning to become aware of the existence of complexity. That is one among some of the reasons behind its opaque image for many.
There is a language made of complex terms which is applied to communicate elaborated concepts and theories. Altogether, the language, the concepts and the theories are immersed in a relentless demand for accuracy and pristine scrutiny. Ultimately, the constant pressure from the rules and demands dominating the world of “respectable science” gets into the personality of those part of this world and translates into an attitude.
As part of the innate nature of scientists there is the constant expectation for complexity behind almost everything. To such extent that it can become a real challenge having to settle for simplicity.
Seasons happen to be colder or warmer than, but now there is also the term “erratic”. Short periods of warmth followed by cold blasts with a change in frequency through the year producing a roller coaster of temperatures like those we have been feeling in the Iberian peninsula in the recent years.
- Drops of Weather. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
- A roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on May 14, 2015
- Another roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) May 13, 2016.- Posted on May 13, 2016
Stability seems to be the key point in here. A strong Polar vortex happens when the conditions in the surrounding atmosphere are stable. That gives smooth transitions between seasons. Without stability, the Polar jet stream becomes wobbly and everything around it in latitude and altitude, giving a weak polar vortex and an erratic distribution of cold and warm masses of air in time and through space.
The door of the Arctic freezer is not closed properly. In other words, the Polar Jet stream is too weak to contain warm mid-latitude air masses from getting into Arctic circulation. Therefore, for as long as warm air gets into the Arctic the cold air already there will get pushed out. When cold dry Arctic air moves away gets in contact with wetter masses of air at lower latitudes and therefore we get snow or “frost” all over the place. And this dynamic is very simple to be understood. Maybe too simple?…
There is not even a complex question behind why warm air moves higher in latitude and altitude.
Follow-up on previous assessments
The assessments which I share in my blog incorporate a level of uncertainty associated with its innovative approach and its independent nature. In order to consolidate their value under the absence of external support, I rely on contrasting my assessments with real-time developments and feedback.
Seeing present conditions over Europe, and in agreement with other previous publications in this blog discussing tele-conections and the nature of the ENSO, I want to highlight the similarities with a publication from one year earlier for the same month November, 2015.
Starts Raining Drops of Winter at Mid-Latitudes. The new Autumn? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Nov 10, 2015
diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com Starts Raining Drops of Winter at Mid-Latitudes. The new Autumn? (by …
diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com ·Following the Behaviour of the Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) The 18th of Nov the Met Office has advised the population of UK to be prepared for a sudden change in the conditions of the
|December 18, 2015||Climate and weather December 2015. Another Polar Vortex another Heat Wave? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)|
|March 3, 2016||Seasonality Spring 2016. Continuous follow-up on my previous research assessing atmospheric dynamics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)|
Follow-up from the media
Similarities between past and present atmospheric dynamics point to a pattern which it was discussed in the publication:
- Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Posted on February 10, 2015.
“Moisture gained in the Equator getting introduced in atmospheric circulation carried by water vapour into higher latitudes incorporating more energy in atmospheric circulation in the form of latent heat.”
Such pattern shows to be found also in the present fall 2016:
Snow in Russia.
2015. Worst snowfall in a decade blankets Omsk, Russia. Posted by Elena Ugrin on October 22, 2015. watcher.news
2016. Siberia Is Being Clobbered With Snow Already, and That Could Mean a Harsher U.S. Winter Ahead. By Jonathan Belles. Published Nov 4 2016 02:43 PM EDT weather.com
Tornado in Italy
A Tornado last year in Venice made the news and was part of a discussion addressed in the publication:
This year, the tornado is near Rome.
Defining what is relevant to be part of mainstream news channels is already a complex matter in itself. That is why I started to publish in my blog my own perception over what I think is relevant filling in what I see as gaps of knowledge.
“If everyone is thinking alike, then somebody isn’t thinking.” – George S. Patton
I am just looking at the sequence of events that I have discussed through my previous publications in the last three years looking for similarities in new developments and I am finding reports, like the previous ones over Russian snow and the tornado in Italy, which support the assessments presented in the line of research published in this blog.
You can also compare choose a period of time through the year and an atmospheric event of your interest, and contrast the similarities by visiting the page containing the timeline of this blog here.
Last year I discussed the tornado in Venice due to the wobbling effect of the Jet Stream as part of my whole approach on climatic developments, in the publication “A climate between waters.” In this publication from the 8th Sept 2015, I mentioned:
“I believe that the present weather events, altogether with the tornado seen in Venice on July, represent some of the new “Drops of Weather” coming over to say that the Summer, as we know it, is coming to an end.
The reason behind it seems to be the sporadic and unpredictable behaviour of the Jet stream, which not only is wobbly in latitude, but also in the vertical profile of the atmosphere. Accordingly, we can see that when it comes to lower levels from 300hPa induces alterations in the thermodynamical behaviour of the tropospheric circulation. In turn, when this cold air touches the lower level of our atmosphere, activates the energy accumulated in the Water vapour contained in it as latent heat, delivering new forms of energy; kinetic provoking strong winds, electrostatic generating lightnings and potential carried in the mass of all the water coming from its gaseous state into liquid or solid precipitation.”
One point which I have tried to make in several discussions is the obsession for identifying differences despite of having so many events which share similarities. It does not need to be complicated to be true and neither too simple to be wrong. Everything is a matter of perspective. Many times our own limitations to understand the simplicity of things is what makes things complicated. And if you have doubts about it, you just need to talk with a child about your troubles.
|What if, the relevant bit lies hidden on identifying the pattern behind similarities instead of trying to match anomalies? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)||September 3, 2015|
“Thunder only happens when it’s raining”. Fleetwood Mac.
Author’s Disclosure Declaration
For those unaware of the content offered in this blog I might have to issue a warning: Handle with care. Also with the product obtained from scientific analytical thinking there are traces of personal and professional “passion”, by-products obtained from “original and unpeered grey matter juice” originated from “independent critical thinking”. Also sometimes the packaging might be rough around the edges due to its “unfunded nature”.
4 years ago I joined a discussion which made me realise how much knowledge was settled on the past, built upon past conventions and unable to give answers about present developments in all parts of our environment. From the impact from GMOs, plastics, soils degradation, atmospheric composition, land use and cover, water cycles, … I had addressed scientifically unanswered questions before doing my PhD so I decided to give it a go and to offer my take over those gaps. It has been a pilgrimage to become aware of how much faith and fear is put on scientific publishing above raw understanding and discussion.
I do not know how far this blog will go, however, it represents the assessment of a global process and I expect that past posts will become a description of continuous present for the next years.
Altogether, the body of work which represents the line of research presented in this blog is composed by 170 pieces, covering data analyses and conceptual discussions. All those different discussions and assessments presented here build together a single concept. The format applied is the result of making a big effort trying to apply simplistic approaches with the aim to allow a multidisciplinary access. Since the topics treated in my publications have implications for many sectors in the academic and not academic world, with the aim of allowing my research for open review, there is also the objective of allowing access to a multisectorial and multidisciplinary audience sharing interest.
Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.
For a more profound discussion over my assessments and analyses as well as constructive feedback, please use my email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com.
My agenda is simple, I am in transition looking for either funding to grow the research published in this blog or for a job position in any field in which my assets are valued. Behind my research there is nothing more, nothing else than to showcase my capabilities doing what I like, research. I am a methodologist. I don´t look at the color of the result obtained, only at the suitability of the method and the coherence of the result. As I have said before, if I am wrong on my assessments and conclusions, it will be better for all, and my work would showcase my capabilities anyway. A CV shines the goals obtained by anyone, but by publishing here my research, I expose myself and my work to public judgement. There is a difference between being naive and raw. If you see the difference you will understand better my work and my personal position.
The aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. So any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time of at least a month from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found refuting the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.
In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com
If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will help me in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.
(This post is part of a more complex piece of independent research. I don´t have funding, political agenda or publishing revenues from visits. Any scientist working in disciplines related with the topics that I treat in my blog knows how to judge the contribution that my work could potentially add to the state of knowledge. Since I am in transition looking for a position in research, if you are one of those scientists, by just acknowledging any value you might see from my contribution, would not only make justice to my effort as independent researcher, but ultimately, it will help me to enhance my chances to find a position with resources to further develop my work.
I believe that the hypothesis that I have presented in previous posts in this blog (here, here and here) could help to understand present and possible future scenarios in atmospheric circulation. However, this is an assessment based on observation which needs to be validated throughout open discussion and data gathering. So please feel free to incorporate your thoughts and comments in a constructive manner.
If you feel like sharing this post I would appreciate to have a reference about the place or platform, by private or public message, in order for me to have the opportunity to join the debate and be aware of the repercussion which might generate d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com
This work is protected under Intellectual Property laws licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.)
Since October 2013 I have been publishing pieces of research studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.
Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License, WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.
More assessments presenting chronologically the line of research published in this blog can be accessed in the category Framework and Timeline.
For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out):
- New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on October 21, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-k3
- Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on November 14, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-mt
- State of the Polar Vortex. Broken? From 29 Nov 2014 to 5th Jan 2015 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla). Posted on November 29, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-o7
- Gathering data to make visible the invisible (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on December 22, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-pN
- Probability in the atmospheric circulation dictating the Weather (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on January 15, 2015. http://wp.me/p403AM-rm
- Meteorological Outlook Feb 2015 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on February 7, 2015. http://wp.me/p403AM-sU
- Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Posted on February 10, 2015. http://wp.me/p403AM-to
- Drops of Weather. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 7, 2015
- Steering climate´s course (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 27, 2015
- Climate. Looking at the forest for the trees (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 9, 2015
- Matching Features Between Land Surface and Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 23, 2015
- Domesticating Nature. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 7, 2015
- A roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 14, 2015
- Talking about climate (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 12, 2015
- News from an Ecosystem (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 20, 2015
- In climate it is becoming Less probable to not have a High probability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 29, 2015
- Drinking from the source (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 5, 2015
- Communication takes more than just publishing thoughts. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 9, 2015
- Extreme climatic events, implications for projections of species distributions and ecosystem structure (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 18, 2015
- The scope of Environmental Science and scientific thought. From Thought-driven to Data-driven, from Critical Thinking to Data Management. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 26, 2015
- Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Drift. Are we there yet? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 2, 2015
- Lateral thinking. From Micro to Macro (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 4, 2015
- Something for the curious minds. Climate and Streamlines (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 17, 2015
- Solar Activity and Human Activity, Settling Their Environmental Liability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 24, 2015
- Atmospheric composition and thermal conductivity? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)August 6, 2015
- Latitudinal barriers and typhoons (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)August 13, 2015
- The Earth is Ticking (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)August 20, 2015
- What if, the relevant bit lies hidden on identifying the pattern behind similarities instead of trying to match anomalies? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)September 3, 2015
- A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla).September 8, 2015
- Sensing Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)September 22, 2015
- InFormAtion. The “Act” of “Giving Form” to “Knowledge” (by Diego fdez-Sevilla)September 30, 2015
- Arctic Intake of Water Vapour (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 7, 2015
- SST Anomalies and Heat Waves. Are They Not All Just Heat Displacements? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 16, 2015
- Discussing Climatic Teleconnections. Follow Up On My Previous Research (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 21, 2015
- Follow-up on Arctic circulation 30 Oct 2015 ( by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 30, 2015
- There is Ice or Frost In Antarctica? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)November 5, 2015
- Starts Raining Drops of Winter at Mid-Latitudes. The new Autumn? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)November 10, 2015
- Press release. Ask NASA (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)November 12, 2015
- Following the Behaviour of the Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)November 19, 2015
- What Is Wrong With The Concept “Bio”? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)November 26, 2015
- Energy. Looking For Sources of Something We Waste. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)December 3, 2015
- SOILS. The Skeleton Holding The Muscle On Our Ecosystems (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)December 9, 2015
- Could It Be El Niño The New “Wolf” Coming? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)December 11, 2015
- Climate and weather December 2015. Another Polar Vortex another Heat Wave? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)December 18, 2015
- New insides on old concepts (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)December 23, 2015
- Atmospheric Dynamics And Shapes (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)January 13, 2016
- European weather. Old News, Same News? by Diego Fdez-SevillaJanuary 15, 2016
- Observational events on atmospheric dynamics. A follow-up assessment over the theory proposed over Energetic gradients by Diego Fdez-Sevilla.January 29, 2016
- North American Weather. Old News, Same News? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)January 20, 2016
- Observed Atmospheric Dynamics. A follow-up assessment over the theory proposed on Energetic gradients by Diego Fdez-Sevilla.January 29, 2016
- (updated 11-18 Feb2016) Polar Vortex, Old News, Same News? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)February 4, 2016
- Forecasting Past Events. Snow Coming to Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)February 12, 2016
- Do You Believe in the Value of Your Work? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)February 23, 2016
- Forecasts For Ecosystems (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)February 25, 2016
- Seasonality Spring 2016. Continuous follow-up on my previous research assessing atmospheric dynamics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 3, 2016
- Tangled in Words. Atmospheric Dynamics, Stefan Boltzmann Calculations and Energy Balance (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 10, 2016
- Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 22, 2016
- Plant growth, CO2, Soil and Nutrients. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 31, 2016
- Atmospheric Dynamics, GHG’s, Thermal Conductivity and Polar Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 6, 2016
- Feedback. Have Your Say. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 14, 2016
- Plant an Idea and Then a Tree… But Which Ones? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 22, 2016
- (updated 28/April/2016) Severe weather warning 27 April 2016 USA (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 28, 2016
- Research Update May 2016 (by Diego Fdez-sevilla)May 6, 2016
- Scientifically Challenged (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 12, 2016
- Another roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 13, 2015May 13, 2016
- Our Environment. One Vision and Many Thoughts. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 20, 2016
- Atmospheric Circulation and the Mixing Zone. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 26, 2016
- When Temperature Becomes Something Else (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 30, 2016
- Settled Science (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 9, 2016
- The Butterfly Effect on Arctic Circulation. (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 10, 2016
- Who has the right and the responsibility to discuss Climate as a topic of debate? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)June 20, 2016
- Snap shot of a day 22 June 2016. Follow-up on previous research over atmospheric dynamics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)June 22, 2016
- Atmospheric mixing. Indian Basin June 2016 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)July 1, 2016
- Research From The Bench (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) July 6, 2016
- Every Little Counts (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) July 13, 2016
- Dream Your Way Out (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) July 15, 2016
- Atmospheric Dynamics. Foreseeable, At The Moment. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) July 19, 2016
- The Colour of Intelligence (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) July 20, 2016
- Climbing The Hill Of Development (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) July 27, 2016
- Climbing the Hill of Acknowledgement. Peer reviewed articles supporting previous assessments and research published in this blog. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) July 28, 2016
- Environmental Questions and Answers for Petrol Fans (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) August 2, 2016
- What is on the menu? “Plastic” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) August 4, 2016
- The Compartmentalization of Evolution (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) August 5, 2016
- Ups and Downs on Climatic Assessments. A Matter of Multiple Perspectives from the Same Point of View (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) August 12, 2016
- Climate. The Long Distance Between Science And Politics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) August 21, 2016
- Aug 2016 Follow-up on previous assessments. Atmospheric Dynamics, Temperature Displacements, Atmospheric Mixing (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) August 26, 2016
- Climate Drift, The True Meaning of Things and the Drift of Those. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) September 2, 2016
- Summer is what summer brings (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) September 5, 2016
- In Climate, Too Many Strange Things Are Happening (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) September 6, 2016
- Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) September 14, 2016
- Solar Forcing in Our Climatic and Atmospheric Dynamics. Location, Location, Location (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) September 22, 2016
- Forecasting Past Events In Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) October 1, 2016
- Equatorial Dynamics. A conversation between Joaquin and Matthew (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) October 7, 2016
- Global Mixing in Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.) October 13, 2016
- Energy in our environmental systems. Follow-up on previous assessments. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) October 19, 2016
- Another Heat Wave Another Polar Vortex II … Broken (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) October 25, 2016
- Autumn and the NH Polar Jet Stream (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) October 27, 2016