Climate. Too Simple To Be It (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)


Climate. Too Simple To Be It (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)

(last update 8 Nov 2016 16.34 GMT+1)

When trying to get into the core of a complex matter one of the most frightening feeling comes from the challenge of not overseeing the obvious being drowned on complexity.

Science is made from learning to become aware of the existence of complexity. That is one among some of the reasons behind its opaque image for many.

There is a language made of complex terms which is applied to communicate elaborated concepts and theories. Altogether, the language, the concepts and the theories are immersed in a relentless demand for accuracy and pristine scrutiny. Ultimately, the constant pressure from the rules and demands dominating the world of “respectable science” gets into the personality of those part of this world and translates into an attitude.

As part of the innate nature of scientists there is the constant expectation for complexity behind almost everything. To such extent that it can become a real challenge having to settle for simplicity.

Climate

Seasons happen to be colder or warmer than, but now there is also the term “erratic”. Short periods of warmth followed by cold blasts with a change in frequency through the year producing a roller coaster of temperatures like those we have been feeling in the Iberian peninsula in the recent years.

Stability seems to be the key point in here. A strong Polar vortex happens when the conditions in the surrounding atmosphere are stable. That gives smooth transitions between seasons. Without stability, the Polar jet stream becomes wobbly and everything around it in latitude and altitude, giving a weak polar vortex and an erratic distribution of cold and warm masses of air in time and through space.

The door of the Arctic freezer is not closed properly. In other words, the Polar Jet stream is too weak to contain warm mid-latitude air masses from getting into Arctic circulation. Therefore, for as long as warm air gets into the Arctic the cold air already there will get pushed out. When cold dry Arctic air moves away gets in contact with wetter masses of air at lower latitudes and therefore we get snow or “frost” all over the place. And this dynamic is very simple to be understood. Maybe too simple?…

There is not even a complex question behind why warm air moves higher in latitude and altitude.

temp10-hpa-anim-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd temp50-hpa-anim-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

gfs-t2_anom-2016-nov-04-init-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

Follow-up on previous assessments

ENSO

Oct 2015 Sept 2016 ENSO

The assessments which I share in my blog incorporate a level of uncertainty associated with its innovative approach and its independent nature. In order to consolidate their value under the absence of external support, I rely on contrasting my assessments with real-time developments and feedback.

Seeing present conditions over Europe, and in agreement with other previous publications in this blog discussing tele-conections and the nature of the ENSO, I want to highlight the similarities with a publication from one year earlier for the same month November, 2015.

Starts Raining Drops of Winter at Mid-Latitudes. The new Autumn? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

Starts Raining Drops of Winter at Mid-Latitudes. The new Autumn? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Nov 10, 2015

diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com Starts Raining Drops of Winter at Mid-Latitudes. The new Autumn?  (by …
Following the Behaviour of the Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

Following the Behaviour of the Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)Nov 19, 2015.

diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com ·Following the Behaviour of the Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) The 18th of Nov the Met Office has advised the population of UK to be prepared for a sudden change in the conditions of the

See also:

December 18, 2015 Climate and weather December 2015. Another Polar Vortex another Heat Wave? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
March 3, 2016 Seasonality Spring 2016. Continuous follow-up on my previous research assessing atmospheric dynamics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)

Follow-up from the media

Similarities between past and present atmospheric dynamics point to a pattern which it was discussed in the publication:

“Moisture gained in the Equator getting introduced in atmospheric circulation carried by water vapour into higher latitudes incorporating more energy in atmospheric circulation in the form of latent heat.”

Such pattern shows to be found also in the present fall 2016:

gfs-world-t2_anom-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

wind-northward-8th-nov-2016-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

Graphical representation of the Northward wind velocity at 10m on 8th Nov 2016. Note the alignment of the northern gasps throughout latitudes with a tendency moving towards the Arctic through the Atlantic ocean. Such pattern was already discussed in previous assessments.

Snow in Russia.

2015. Worst snowfall in a decade blankets Omsk, Russia. Posted by Elena Ugrin on October 22, 2015. watcher.news

2016. Siberia Is Being Clobbered With Snow Already, and That Could Mean a Harsher U.S. Winter Ahead. By Jonathan Belles. Published Nov 4 2016 02:43 PM EDT weather.com

 Tornado in Italy

A Tornado last year in Venice made the news and was part of a discussion addressed in the publication:

This year, the tornado is near Rome.

Large and deadly tornado rips through Italy near Rome

Large and deadly tornado rips through Italy near Rome

watchers.newsA powerful storm accompanied by at least one very large tornado hit Italy on November 6, 201…

 

Closing remarks

Defining what is relevant to be part of mainstream news channels is already a complex matter in itself. That is why I started to publish in my blog my own perception over what I think is relevant filling in what I see as gaps of knowledge.

“If everyone is thinking alike, then somebody isn’t thinking.” – George S. Patton

I am just looking at the sequence of events that I have discussed through my previous publications in the last three years looking for similarities in new developments and I am finding reports, like the previous ones over Russian snow and the tornado in Italy, which support the assessments presented in the line of research published in this blog.

You can also compare choose a period of time through the year and an atmospheric event of your interest, and contrast the similarities by visiting the page containing the timeline of this blog here.

Last year I discussed the tornado in Venice due to the wobbling effect of the Jet Stream as part of my whole approach on climatic developments, in the publication “A climate between waters.” In this publication from the 8th Sept 2015, I mentioned:

“I believe that the present weather events, altogether with the tornado seen in Venice on July, represent some of the new “Drops of Weather” coming over to say that the Summer, as we know it, is coming to an end.

The reason behind it seems to be the sporadic and unpredictable behaviour of the Jet stream, which not only is wobbly in latitude, but also in the vertical profile of the atmosphere. Accordingly, we can see that when it comes to lower levels from 300hPa induces alterations in the thermodynamical behaviour of the tropospheric circulation. In turn, when this cold air touches the lower level of our atmosphere, activates the energy accumulated in the Water vapour contained in it as latent heat, delivering new forms of energy; kinetic provoking strong winds, electrostatic generating lightnings and potential carried in the mass of all the water coming from its gaseous state into liquid or solid precipitation.”

One point which I have tried to make in several discussions is the obsession for identifying differences despite of having so many events which share similarities. It does not need to be complicated to be true and neither too simple to be wrong. Everything is a matter of perspective. Many times our own limitations to understand the simplicity of things is what makes things complicated. And if you have doubts about it, you just need to talk with a child about your troubles.

What if, the relevant bit lies hidden on identifying the pattern behind similarities instead of trying to match anomalies? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) September 3, 2015

“Thunder only happens when it’s raining”. Fleetwood Mac.


Author’s Disclosure Declaration

For those unaware of the content offered in this blog I might have to issue a warning: Handle with care. Also with the product obtained from scientific analytical thinking there are traces of personal and professional “passion”, by-products obtained from “original and unpeered grey matter juice” originated from “independent critical thinking”. Also sometimes the packaging might be rough around the edges due to its “unfunded nature”.

4 years ago I joined a discussion which made me realise how much knowledge was settled on the past, built upon past conventions and unable to give answers about present developments in all parts of our environment. From the impact from GMOs, plastics, soils degradation, atmospheric composition, land use and cover, water cycles, … I had addressed scientifically unanswered questions before doing my PhD so I decided to give it a go and to offer my take over those gaps. It has been a pilgrimage to become aware of how much faith and fear is put on scientific publishing above raw understanding and discussion.

I do not know how far this blog will go, however, it represents the assessment of a global process and I expect that past posts will become a description of continuous present for the next years.

Altogether, the body of work which represents the line of research presented in this blog is composed by 170 pieces, covering data analyses and conceptual discussions. All those different discussions and assessments presented here build together a single concept. The format applied is the result of making a big effort trying to apply simplistic approaches with the aim to allow a multidisciplinary access. Since the topics treated in my publications have implications for many sectors in the academic and not academic world, with the aim of allowing my research for open review, there is also the objective of allowing access to a multisectorial and multidisciplinary audience sharing interest.

Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.

For a more profound discussion over my assessments and analyses as well as constructive feedback, please use my email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com.

My agenda is simple, I am in transition looking for either funding to grow the research published in this blog or for a job position in any field in which my assets are valued. Behind my research there is nothing more, nothing else than to showcase my capabilities doing what I like, research. I am a methodologist. I don´t look at the color of the result obtained, only at the suitability of the method and the coherence of the result. As I have said before, if I am wrong on my assessments and conclusions, it will be better for all, and my work would showcase my capabilities anyway. A CV shines the goals obtained by anyone, but by publishing here my research, I expose myself and my work to public judgement. There is a difference between being naive and raw. If you see the difference you will understand better my work and my personal position.

The aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. So any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time of at least a month from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found refuting the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.

In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will help me in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.

Perspective

(This post is part of a more complex piece of independent research. I don´t have funding, political agenda or publishing revenues from visits. Any scientist working in disciplines related with the topics that I treat in my blog knows how to judge the contribution that my work could potentially add to the state of knowledge. Since I am in transition looking for a position in research, if you are one of those scientists, by just acknowledging any value you might see from my contribution, would not only make justice to my effort as independent researcher, but ultimately, it will help me to enhance my chances to find a position with resources to further develop my work.

I believe that the hypothesis that I have presented in previous posts in this blog (here, here and here) could help to understand present and possible future scenarios in atmospheric circulation. However, this is an assessment based on observation which needs to be validated throughout open discussion and data gathering. So please feel free to incorporate your thoughts and comments in a constructive manner.

If you feel like sharing this post I would appreciate to have a reference about the place or platform, by private or public message, in order for me to have the opportunity to join the debate and be aware of the repercussion which might generate d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

This work is protected under Intellectual Property laws licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.)

Since October 2013 I have been publishing pieces of research studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.

Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License,  WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.

More assessments presenting chronologically the line of research published in this blog can be accessed in the category Framework and Timeline.

For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out):

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About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Citing This Site "Title", published online "Month"+"Year", retrieved on "Month""Day", "Year" from http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my previous work as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After couple of years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, I find myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my research. In the present competitive scenario, instead of just moving my cv and wait for my next opportunity to arrive, I have decided to invest also my energy and time in opening my own line of research showing what I am capable of. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this blog has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my work and the intellectual rights represented by the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in this line of research. Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome. In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2017, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2017. Filling in or Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/
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12 Responses to Climate. Too Simple To Be It (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)

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