Forecasting Past Events. Snow Coming to Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)
Back on March 3, 2015 I published an entrance covering the situation created over Europe by a cold burst of polar air reaching low latitudes at the Iberian peninsula.
Extreme climatic events in the North Hemisphere outside the EEUU. News from Spain February 2015 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
The sequence of events seen last year in February seem to gain a high probability to happen again this year for the following days from today 12 Feb 2016.
Last year the events were reported as follows:
3rd of February 2015, a cold front moved into southern Europe generating problems due to heavy snow and floods. Such situation was covered by the news in reports like the following one “Weather Floods deluge western Mediterranean while snow hits Spain”. Flooding submerges parts of the western Mediterranean while 3 metre snow drifts close the border between France and Spain. Click here for more detail.
5th February 2015. BBC News
Spanish emergency services have rescued at least 220 people trapped by snow on roads in northern Spain. Hundreds of cars were stuck for up to 17 hours overnight on roads between Cantabria and the province of Palencia. Local media report temperatures of -15C (5F) and up 40cm (1.3ft) of snow.
27th February 2015. Meltwater causes flooding in Navarra and the Basque Country. spanishnewstoday.com
2nd March 2015. Spanish National Television Report. (click over the image to see the video)
The forecast given by the GFS for the next days suggest the high probabilities of seeing similar scenarios being replicated in the following days as a result of a weak Polar Jet Stream:
Temperatures are expected to drop and snow to move south over the European continent.
But, since the volume of air to be contained in the Arctic is limited, when a cold mass of air comes out, another mass of air has to come inside to fill up the gap left. Therefore, it is also expected for mid latitudinal warm air to get into Arctic latitudes over the Atlantic.
The intrusion of warm air from mid latitudes into the Arctic increases the probabilities of seeing precipitation in the form of rain instead of snow out of season. Something which would weaken even further the thermal contrast sustaining the Polar Jet stream.
Is it so different from Last year?
I leave for you to judge how far are the conditions from Feb last year 2015 from this year Feb 2016. And in order to have some visual representation I have looked into the closest images that I have found in time over Temp anomalies at T2, and Precipitation patterns over the NH.
Looking at the state of the Polar vortex, the Polar Jet Stream, the anomalies in Temperature and the patterns followed by mid latitude warm masses of air I expect with high probability a similar scenario to what we saw last year Feb 2015 in Feb 2016. Let´s see how far can we “Forecast past events”.
The consequences from repeating Past events.
Throughout the winters of last years 2013/14 and 2014/15 there were already strong variation in temperature over the south of Europe and in particular over the Iberian Peninsula. Those happen with and without the Polar Vortex broken, and with and without the presence of a strong ENSO on its positive phase.
The masses of air moving across the atmosphere are showing to be capable of carrying opposite contrasts of temperature across latitudes and altitudes from what it is supposed to following a stratigraphic order defined by location. Warm masses of air are not dissipating their energy into the surroundings and neither they are blocked by the Polar Jet Stream. Since they carry the energy absorbed at mid latitudes, they move actively through the atmosphere due to convective forcing favoured by the Coriolis effect displacing in their path cold masses of air low in energy.
The interpretation for such dynamics to occur and the implications from them for fauna and flora is a big concern since the synergies derived from them have links with:
- the atmospheric system in itself, as well as,
- with the economy sustained by their products (flowering, pollination, fruit growth, …
More discussion on this specific topic can be found in the following links:
- A roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 14, 2015
- Extreme climatic events, implications for projections of species distributions and ecosystem structure (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) June 18, 2015
Since October 2013 I have been studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.
Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com).
- New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on October 21, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-k3
- Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on November 14, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-mt
- Gathering data to make visible the invisible (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on December 22, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-pN
- State of the Polar Vortex. Broken? From 29 Nov 2014 to 5th Jan 2015 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla). Posted on November 29, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-o7
- Probability in the atmospheric circulation dictating the Weather (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on January 15, 2015. http://wp.me/p403AM-rm
- Meteorological Outlook Feb 2015 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on February 7, 2015. http://wp.me/p403AM-sU
- Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Posted on February 10, 2015. http://wp.me/p403AM-to
- Matching Features Between Land Surface and Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 23, 2015
- Drops of Weather. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 7, 2015
- Steering climate´s course (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 27, 2015
- Climate. Looking at the forest for the trees (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 9, 2015
- Domesticating Nature. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 7, 2015
- A roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 14, 2015
- Talking about climate (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 12, 2015
- News from an Ecosystem (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 20, 2015
- In climate it is becoming Less probable to not have a High probability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 29, 2015
- Drinking from the source (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 5, 2015
- Communication takes more than just publishing thoughts. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 9, 2015
- Extreme climatic events, implications for projections of species distributions and ecosystem structure (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 18, 2015
- The scope of Environmental Science and scientific thought. From Thought-driven to Data-driven, from Critical Thinking to Data Management. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 26, 2015
- Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Drift. Are we there yet? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 2, 2015
- Lateral thinking. From Micro to Macro (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 4, 2015
- Something for the curious minds. Climate and Streamlines (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 17, 2015
- Solar Activity and Human Activity, Settling Their Environmental Liability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 24, 2015
- Atmospheric composition and thermal conductivity? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)August 6, 2015
- Latitudinal barriers and typhoons (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)August 13, 2015
- The Earth is Ticking (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)August 20, 2015
- What if, the relevant bit lies hidden on identifying the pattern behind similarities instead of trying to match anomalies? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)September 3, 2015
- A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla).September 8, 2015
- Sensing Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)September 22, 2015
- InFormAtion. The “Act” of “Giving Form” to “Knowledge” (by Diego fdez-Sevilla)September 30, 2015
- Arctic Intake of Water Vapour (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 7, 2015
- SST Anomalies and Heat Waves. Are They Not All Just Heat Displacements? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 16, 2015
- Discussing Climatic Teleconnections. Follow Up On My Previous Research (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 21, 2015
- Follow-up on Arctic circulation 30 Oct 2015 ( by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) October 30, 2015
- There is Ice or Frost In Antarctica? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) November 5, 2015
- Starts Raining Drops of Winter at Mid-Latitudes. The new Autumn? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) November 10, 2015
- Press release. Ask NASA (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) November 12, 2015
- Following the Behaviour of the Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) November 19, 2015
- What Is Wrong With The Concept “Bio”? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) November 26, 2015
- Energy. Looking For Sources of Something We Waste. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) December 3, 2015
- SOILS. The Skeleton Holding The Muscle On Our Ecosystems (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) December 9, 2015
- Could It Be El Niño The New “Wolf” Coming? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) December 11, 2015
- Climate and weather December 2015. Another Polar Vortex another Heat Wave? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) December 18, 2015
- New insides on old concepts (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) December 23, 2015
- Atmospheric Dynamics And Shapes (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) January 13, 2016
- European weather. Old News, Same News? by Diego Fdez-Sevilla January 15, 2016
- Observational events on atmospheric dynamics. A follow-up assessment over the theory proposed over Energetic gradients by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. January 29, 2016
- North American Weather. Old News, Same News? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) January 20, 2016