Spring 2018 Analysis through a Snapshot of Day 17-18 April 2018. Atmospheric Dynamics Follow-Up by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD
(Recap/Follow-up December 2016). Today 17 April 2018, we have already seen an anomalous Winter, and now we are witnessing the seasonal transition towards the summer, Spring. One of the most difficult and valuable challenges in research comes from the ability to make an analysis accurate enough to sustain the conclusions reached against processes being seen to develop afterwards in real-time. For this reason I want to re-share previous assessments addressing atmospheric dynamics and seasonal developments.
|December 17, 2016||From: Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20129.81760
“The assessments presented through the series of publications shared in the line of research published in this blog apply a point of view which considers an order of factors driven by thermodynamical principles. All these assessments foresee a change in the progression of Seasonality from Orbital Driven to Kinetic driven, considering kinetic an expression of the energy being driving the seasonal climatic regimes around the latitudes and longitudes. And even though many scientists might look into the same events and parameters, not all of us are making the same assessments over the meaning behind those and the conclusions reached from our observation and analysis.”
Being CO2 a molecular element enhancing atmospheric thermal conductance, and aerosols acting as droplet nuclei in cloud formation, their combined effect altogether with alterations in the water cycles and energy flows due to anthropogenic activity would increase the capacity for the atmosphere to absorb, contain and disperse water vapour. But more importantly, this water vapour would incorporate an increase of energy into the atmospheric pool which it would affect atmospheric developments such as the strength, paths and life periods of lows and highs as much as those events concentrating energetic discharges in form of precipitation, wind and heat or cold waves.
The outcome from such assessment foresees an spreading of energy through the atmosphere in Latitude and Altitude, driving a climatic drift which will affect life cycles in animals and plants as well as in soil degradation and water availability.
The assessments presented through the series of publications shared in the line of research published in this blog apply a point of view which considers an order of factors driven by thermodynamical principles. As the process followed in the order of the steps taken to cook the recipe to make an environment.
All these assessments foresee a change in the progression of Seasonality from Orbital Driven to Kinetic driven, considering kinetic an expression of the energy being driving the seasonal climatic regimes around the latitudes and longitudes.
Some related analyses from previous dates:
|March 14, 2018||Visualising Wind and Convective Forcing Driving Climatic Dynamics. Follow-up 14 March 2018 by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34233.06249
Follow link at title
|April 6, 2018||Temp Anomalies 2m by Two BaseLines 6 April 2018 Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD
Follow link at Title
Mean Sea Level Pressure, IR and Temp Anom 2m
17 April 2018
|January 13, 2017||Breaking Stereotypes Assessing Climatic Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.12396.67200
Based on my research, and from my point of view (as always open for discussion), the atmospheric dynamics for the period of the orbital cycle with the less solar radiation over the NH are similar in a cycle from the last 4-5 years. Cold spells over North America and Europe, Water floods in South America and Indonesia, and also California.
The part where my research comes to the point is that everything is happening despite the absence of the “popular” break of the polar vortex, the absence of a “terrifying” El Niño and with an inconsistent definition of a wet pattern over the Iberian peninsula associated with a negative NAO/AO. It seems that the NAO is no longer driven by differences in pressure between latitudes but between longitudes over the Atlantic Ocean and over the European continent.
North West Iberian Peninsula 18 April 2018. IR Airmass.
Ourense – Spain. Climatic Variable Temperature.
|March 10, 2017||March 2017 Atmospheric Dynamics influencing the Iberian Peninsula Follow-up from previous research by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.23010.63687|
|May 5, 2017||Mixing Temperatures keep shaping A Roller coaster of Temperatures over South Europe. Follow-up on previous research 5th May 17. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.16627.43043|
BioIndicators 18 April 2018. Ourense-Spain.
Newborn ducks Pollen
|February 25, 2016||Forecasts For Ecosystems (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ReasearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36832.17925|
|October 15, 2013||Is pollen a pollutant? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)|
|November 14, 2013||More pollen versus more plants. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)|
|November 20, 2013||Understanding pollen seasons and hay fever. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)|
My definition of Climate Drift is:
The deviation from equilibrium of the conditions allowing the perpetuity of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in a micro and macro ecosystem. This situation can be due to changes in any component of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes can be either a change in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality or rates in the flows of energy pre-established OR/AND the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components/forces and energy sinks or sources in any part of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance.
The question driving the whole debate on Climatic Deviations from “a Normal”, or Climatic Drift, focus most of the methodologies on temperature.
Energy fuels the work done by warm masses of air displacing colder masses of air in their path. That increases mixing patterns generating anomalies in temperature. So behind an increase in the amount of work carried out by masses of air there is an increase in the energy fuelling such dynamics. Energy can only be transferred, not created or destroyed. So more work means more energy in circulation. More energy in circulation can only be sustained by a substance carrying it. Either if we consider that the energy driving anomalies comes from the Sun or from the Oceans, the carrier has to be in the atmosphere in order for the energy to produce work. And the body loosing heat cools down.
So “temperature” is less reliable than looking at “work” seen even in the “mild” events.
Throughout the analyses published in my line of research since 2013 I have followed a different approach from main stream, using Gradients of Energy in all its forms. That is why in 2014 I offered my thoughts as a theory of practical applications.
Some of the applications derived from following the conclusions offered address the expected absence of a positive phase in the Equatorial Pacific SST “El Nino” in order to see warmer than normal temperatures in Arctic latitudes and Altitudes:
- December 11, 2015 Could It Be El Niño The New “Wolf” Coming? Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.3238.2801
- March 22, 2016 Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1968.5521)
- February 4, 2016 Polar Vortex, Old News, Same News? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25779.12328
- October 25, 2016 Another Heat Wave Another Polar Vortex II … Broken (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.13418.93124
Another example of the applications from previous analyses and conclusions described the increasing strength seeing a new configuration over Arctic circulation, a trans-Arctic connectivity between Pacific and Atlantic Basins, driven by mid-latitude convective forcing and affecting Polar and Equatorial dynamics reaching global scales into the SH:
A corridor of wind over the Arctic is triggered by a conversion of Temperature into work, convection and advection, which are the result of mixing masses of air. As I have published in previous analyses, such Trans-Arctic connection between Atlantic and Pacific Basins is part of a pattern increasing the mixing ratio between masses of air otherwise separated by thermal compartmentalization, like the Polar Jet Stream. An increase in the dispersion of energetic forms have different outcomes, one of which it would be a temporary reduction in the average temperature resultant for the mixing between Cold (Arctic) and warm (Mid-Latitude) masses of air as well as in altitude (SSW).
- September 8, 2015 A Climate “Between Waters”. Trans-Arctic connectivity between Oceanic Basins (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD). Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1697.5847
- October 21, 2015 Discussing Climatic Teleconnections. Follow Up On My Previous Research (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2962.7605
- March 22, 2016 Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1968.5521
- September 14, 2016 Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.19874.63684
- October 7, 2016 Equatorial Dynamics. A conversation between Joaquin and Matthew (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.13720.08960
- October 13, 2016 Global Mixing in Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.21255.60320
- November 17, 2016 Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.24688.35848
- February 28, 2018 Arctic Warming as a Result of Convective Forcing by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34551.73125
- November 5, 2015 There is Ice or Frost In Antarctica? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.17938.15048
- March 3, 2017 The Antarctic Bubble (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)
- March 23, 2017 Final Review in Progress. March 2017. From ENSO to Scientific Thinking by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.33915.82726
- August 31, 2017 Climate. A System Becoming Dominated By Free Energy. The “Drama”, Character Driven VS Plot Driven (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18509.13289
The main conclusion from my 4 years of researching synergistic interactions between all transformations seen over the Liquid, Gaseous and Solid phases of our global Environment indicates that anthropogenic activity is forcing our environment into A System Becoming Dominated By Free Energy. (DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18509.13289 https://wp.me/p403AM-1Bb)
The biotic component of our environmental system is the only one capable of interacting against thermodynamic entropy, against instability. And for as long as Human activity can not replicate such mechanisms in equilibrium with the resources consumed, it might be time to think about domesticating Human Activities instead of following the obsession for Domesticating Natural Behaviour and Geoengineer our Weather.
(After seeking feedback from experts in the field by email ( Jennifer Francis among them, link here) and platforms such as AGU and NOAA groups at linkedIn, my assessments have not received comments or arguments invalidating the assessments presented. Even thought I am aware of that in order to consider any value over such assessments, some people need to see it in a peer reviewed article published in a renown journal, due to the lack of institutional support, I am unable to bring my research into official channels of scientific journalism. Therefore, I expose my assessments in this blog trying to allow anyone to be the reviewer contrasting current developments with my assessments enabling Official Bodies and Established scientists to consider the value of my research despite its informal format.
All analyses from 2013 have been exposed for public criticism and discussion in this blog and at LinkedIn, leaving months, even years of time. (See page Public Review for more info)
Once those have no faced any criticism or arguments refuting their value, I create a pdf file and a DOI publishing them at my profile in Researchgate.
In order to maintain their genuineness and legitimate innovative nature, I keep its original state so those can be compared with any copy made by any third party at any time. For your own references and review over its originality over time with respect to other publications via scientific papers and/or news reports, you can compare the publications at the blog and researchgate with the records archived:
- at the web.archive.org site http://web.archive.org/web/*/diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com
- ResearchGate profile https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Diego_Fdez-Sevilla
- LinkedIn Public shares https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/diego-fdez-sevilla-phds-research-reach/
- Full Index of Analyses and Timeline https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com
- Linkedin Group AGU: https://www.linkedin.com/groupItem?view=&gid=2196290&type=member&item=5986214897078272003
- LInkedin Group NOAA: https://www.linkedin.com/groupItem?view=&gid=156873&type=member&item=5986214921963077634)
This Blog is dedicated to Research and Communication in Environmental Sciences under the scope of “Filling in or finding out gaps of Knowledge”.
Based on the knowledge and the skills acquired from my previous training as Master in
Environmental Science and PhD in Atmospheric Biology, the content aims to offer original material highlighting the implications behind the existence of relevant gaps of knowledge in environmental assessments.
The objectives of this work are: to assess the implications raising from incorporating gaps of knowledge into environmental assessments, to promote multidisciplinary discussion offering a simple layout over complex synergistic interactions, and to make a contribution into the state of knowledge.
By publishing my assessments in a public platform allowing free access I aim to expose all publications for an open review. All comments undergo a filtering process in order to ensure legitimacy an authorship avoiding robots and spammers. All comments received are published despite being in agreement or disagreement following the objective of accomplishing an open debate. If the assessment published has no comments is because there are no record of those despite the number of visits and shares registered.
After a period of time left for commenting and discussion, either here or at LinkedIn, once it has been established the absence of arguments invalidating the assessments published those assessments more representative are published with a DOI at my profile in Researchgate and the page Citations. Due to the high number of publications offered (more than 200) DOIs for those publications lacking it can be asked by email at d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com.
More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#!
Any misuse or mimic of the research published in this blog being found in papers without attribution will be exposed to the community as a first measure, opening for consideration legal action following Intellectual Property laws.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
After finishing my Masters in Environmental Science in 2001, I have performed research at PhD level and worked inside and outside academia at institutions linked with environmental research and management. In 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new job’s position.
In such competitive scenario, instead of just moving my cv between desks waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I used it as an advantageous standing point to start and develop independent research in a blog in which I could open my own line of research completely free of external pressures or interferences.
Through the whole project I have increasingly being focused on publishing pieces of original research applying my own perspective aiming to address relevant environmental questions.
The level of uncertainty which I have accomplished in my assessments has reached enough accuracy to replicate real time developments to the point of compete with models sustained by corporate and administrative budgets.
In Feb 2017, the line of research presented in this blog reached an stage in which its framework has been defined and it has been applied in follow-ups (in the timeline section use ctrl+F: “follow-up”) challenging and validating the conclusions offered. Therefore, once the main conclusions of the project have demonstrated their value, it is time for my career to find new ways of growth and/or external sources of financial support.
Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD In transition
I am looking for new opportunities and new challenges, to join a team. At the same time that I look for job openings to incorporate my resume, I would encourage any one finding interesting any of the skills which I apply throughout my research, as well as communicator, to evaluate my profile as a candidate for your projects. email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com
You can look at the whole project (more than 230 publications including analyses and discussions addressing environmental synergies since Oct 2013 to present April 2018) published at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com and also you will find DOIs and archives in pdf for some of those publications in my profile at ResearchGate
I am living in Spain free to relocate geographically worldwide.
About this Project:
My definition of Climate Drift is: the deviation from equilibrium of the conditions allowing the perpetuity of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in a micro and macro ecosystem. This situation can be due to changes in any component of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes can be either a change in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality or rates in the flows of energy pre-established OR/AND the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components/forces and energy sinks or sources in any part of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance.
This project published in a blog format, offers pieces of original research in environmental science, and a space for discussion, based on considering as a major factor limiting our understandings the lack of attention given to the gaps of knowledge existent. The concepts, measurements and parameters applied to address environmental synergistic interactions are too narrow and isolated from each other to understand their full meaning. Such circumstance induce to reach dogmatic patterns of thought to make the quickest conclusions in the absence of a better and clear idea describing what is happening.
In this Project I aim to address those limitations using observational analyses offering assessments over real time events considering those as proxies of significant value to make interpretations over global synergistic relationships.
Feedback is always welcome here and at my email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com
Since 2002 I have performed research over the Atmospheric Dynamics interacting with the biota in the field of Aerobiology. In Oct 2013 I focused my attention over climatic dynamics and in Oct 2014 I published what I believe to be a valid theory explaining current developments in atmospheric dynamics. I shared my thoughts at my blog and several groups in LinkedIn (like the AGU, NASA and NOA groups) where the immense response offered has been silence.
In Feb 2015 I published a revision and since then a constant follow-up throughout more than 230 assessments. Still today, April 2018, the majority of the response is silence despite the amount of visits identified by all the tools and the interactions and shares accounted.
So I thank your open feedback and share.
Nowadays, there are many divisions between disciplines due to the isolated nature of their specific language and methodologies. I might not use the right vocabulary for all the fields which I discuss, or the right data or the right reasoning. But when nobody is able to offer a consensus over what is going on, I wonder, what is right this days?.