Those Little Things in Atmospheric Dynamics. Juno, Jonas, Mathew and Joaquin (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)


Those Little Things in Atmospheric Dynamics. Juno, Jonas, Mathew and Joaquin (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)

I want to be cautious on my following comment but, I want to say that am curious about the way some events have been addressed this winter, or to be more precise, the lack of relevance or attention to their significance as part of a dynamic being increasingly repeated. Have some meteorological services changed their standards to make atmospheric events less significant? Are employees and employers of all kind (meteorologists, scientists in administrations, those in charge of setting up and implement models and their interpretation, …) more precautious on their assessments??

From previous post:

November 25, 2016 Atmospheric Thermal Conductance (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)

Compromise

Everybody has to make compromises accordingly with its professional and personal situation.

In climatic developments this is as much evident as in any other scenario. But by keeping the whole scientific community compromising on their professional safety no break through will keep up with the actual pace over the present developments.

The Arctic has given to us a hint over something going on. And I feel that the developments occurring in front of our eyes are moving faster that the courage to discuss the possibilities which they represent.

Since I am in transition trying to focus my attention into searching for job positions, I have left time to pass by, looking at what the professionals had to say about the events unfolding through this winter. At the end, they are the ones “officially in charge” of offering answers as well as they are the ones in remunerated full-time positions, with economic and infrastructure support. And yet I have not seen nothing further than echoes of “what the data says“.

Four weeks ago I had a conversation with one member of my network at LinkedIn:

  • Thanks to Gabriel Labrador‘s post at linkedin: Expected rainfall anomalies. Global Seasonal Forecast of the European Center. For the months of February, March and April 2017. ()

Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D.

I believe that we will see far more rainfall anomalies at the North Hemisphere than what it is included in the analysis. And I put my money on a faulty configuration of the initial state of the model, plus an inability for the model to adapt to new dynamics involved in the circulation due to the result of recent warming events at the Arctic in Altitude and Latitude. But, I am not a full-time professional in the topic so my assessment carries a level of uncertainty. Not sure if I carry more or less uncertainty than the level carried by the model but lets see.

Gabriel Labrador Hernández

As far as Southeast South America is concerned, it is reaping. A few months ago in Uruguay we were expecting an intensification of La Niña, and therefore drought. But La Niña never grew up … it was officially declared finished recently. So far in February has rained above normal in several points. The positive anomaly indicated on the map for the La Plata River Basin is being met.

Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D.

I guess I use unorthodox methods in my assessments so they always carry a level of uncertainty and lack of peer verification. However, in my assessments ENSO is a subsidiary effect of atmospheric circulation. Being La Niña the phase with strongest wind shear from the Atlantic, the Atlantic at this point is too busy blowing into the Arctic to generate a La Niña event. I have explained my point of view in publications which I believe you know. I might not be the best or most rigorous scientist to be trusted but I know that you are well formed to judge the validity from my assessments. I don´t have the skills required to make models matching the current events, I am just offering an interpretation of what they are, they mean and how and why they exist. But it doesn´t seem to get me into professional recognition or economic support so, I might well leave it to the real professionals. I am just looking for a job.

February 2017 Precipitation Anomalies

This map shows monthly precipitation anomalies for the globe.

These data are from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s CAMS_OPI data set. “CAMS” is an acronym for the “Climate Anomaly Monitoring System” in use at the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) at the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). “OPI” stands for “Outgoing longwave radiation Precipitation Index” (the satellite precipitation estimates are based on emitted longwave radiation observed by polar-orbiting satellite.)

Monthly Precipitation Anomaly Feb 2017. Source

Follow-up on previous research from this blog

Following the research presented in the line of assessments published in this blog I believe that what happened the 5-6 Feb over the eastern North American continent with the storm Maya, shared many similarities with Juno, and Jonas. Similarities in timing, shape and format. Actually I was expecting for this year a storm called Janet so to keep the J-N similarities. From my point of view, not only this storms are part of a pattern but also those named Joaquin and Mathew.

See some previous related posts following the link from the titles (see all posts at the Timeline page):

January 28, 2015 The origin of the Storm “Juno” 27 Jan 2015 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
October 7, 2016 Equatorial Dynamics. A conversation between Joaquin and Matthew (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)
October 27, 2016 Autumn and the NH Polar Jet Stream (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)

Through the NH Autumn period the equatorial zone of influence (ITCZ) moves to the south as well as the Polar Jet Stream come lower in latitude.

There are several implications derived from this changes. However, the state of the Polar Jet has been weak and wobbly through this decade. Having a weak Jet Stream means that the transition between seasons and its change in latitudinal location is not homogeneous in space and neither constant in time. Its erratic behaviour has increased the probability of seeing atmospheric developments which could be considered out of season due to their characteristics, their location and their timing. Atmospheric developments which sometimes are expressed in the form of thermal deviations from their geographical climatic regime (temperatures reaching higher/lower values than those expected for a specific location in an specific part of the year). But also the alterations brought by an unstable atmospheric compartmentalization is related with the developments of some type of storms.

The change in latitudinal position for the Polar Jet stream moving south over the NH American continent increases the probability of seeing low pressure developments moving from the East Pacific across the continent towards the East coast of America. Altogether such scenario increases the probability of having one of those low pressure systems colliding with warm currents from the Gulf bringing similar developments as those seen with the storms Juno or Jonas.

I think that we have arrived at this part of the year where it is time to start watching out for low pressure developments coming from the Pacific basin moving across North America.

Previous storms sharing this type of genesis were called Juno and Jonas. Therefore, I vote for the next one should be called Janet so it is kept the J-N- in the name. see more following the link at the title.

Furthermore, temperature variations over North America as well as Europe have generated a roller-coaster of temperatures showing to be part of a “state” or “modus operandi” in the thermal variations through winter as a result of a pattern dominated by kinetic developments stronger than just variations in seasonal-orbital Sun’s angle of radiation.

May 14, 2015 A roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
January 15, 2016 European weather. Old News, Same News? by Diego Fdez-Sevilla
January 20, 2016 North American Weather. Old News, Same News? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
January 29, 2016 Observed Atmospheric Dynamics. A follow-up assessment over the theory proposed on Energetic gradients by Diego Fdez-Sevilla.
February 4, 2016 (updated 11-18 Feb2016) Polar Vortex, Old News, Same News? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
March 3, 2016 Seasonality Spring 2016. Continuous follow-up on my previous research assessing atmospheric dynamics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
December 17, 2016 Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)

The existence of all those events and variations carry a significance on their own. And maybe, despite the fact that some events do not represent extreme fluctuations over previous records, their mere existence of “those little things” might indicate the presence of a recurrent pattern becoming dominant for which we are only identifying its presence through only the variations measured in its stronger phase.

In climate it is becoming Less probable to not have a High probability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 29, 2015
Steering climate´s course (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) March 27, 2015
Climate. Looking at the forest for the trees (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) April 9, 2015
What if, the relevant bit lies hidden on identifying the pattern behind similarities instead of trying to match anomalies? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) September 3, 2015

Those little things for which their relevance is difficult to be measured will demand to make an intellectual effort beyond what models or standardised categorizations will offer to us. If models are able to predict variations based on previous repetition it means that those have been significant before but that we have been waiting for our models to tell us just that:

significant things have happened in front of our eyes so their probability to happen again increases“.

The limitations behind models are based on that “Something new will have always a very low probability to happen based on models built on past events.”

But what it is more important. If a model can tell us what will happen based on the recreation of previous events, it will not contemplate the effect that comes with the accumulation of added pressures raised from their mere existence. If new dynamics replace old ones, models will never catch-up with the new developments, and how the weathering effect of previous dynamics play a role over the developments of the following ones.

And ultimately, models are built from data managers whom design and select algorithms as well as they also define the thresholds chosen to highlight or not patterns. So all of those steps are always subjected to the limitations of the person-s programming it as well as by the accuracy of the data introduced in the model as well as by the selection in the level of confidence/dominance given to the different variables. And ultimately, models are built to serve a specific purpose which might change when the application of the model changes between hands …

So when we follow a model, we follow the people handling the model. That happens in science and in social media.

“The Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything” is … 42 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)

The most difficult thing in environmental sciences is to recognise and characterize thresholds based on correlations. No correlation can explain and forecast or project the transition from a primitive thermodynamic geologically dominated system to the origin of biological processes. That transition changed the chemistry of the environment in the hydrosphere, landscape, soil weathering and atmosphere composition, affecting the thermodynamics of the whole system.
No correlation can explain and forecast or project the genetic drift in evolution. The transition from simple structures with anaerobic and not solar related metabolism to complex organisms oxygen and solar dependent changed the availability of major volumes of elements by releasing them from their complex molecules into water cycles, ground and air. And it is as much difficult to understand which environmental conditions and parameters define the thresholds that change the magnitude of forces and trigger the activation of new systems (biotic and abiotic).

May 15, 2014
June 18, 2015 Extreme climatic events, implications for projections of species distributions and ecosystem structure (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
May 7, 2015 Domesticating Nature. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
March 3, 2017 Thermodynamic Ecosystems by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD
September 22, 2015 Sensing Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)

This is just what I think from my position based on my independent research. Discussion is much appreciated in order unify criteria and efforts.

As from March 2017, I am in transition looking for new opportunities and new challenges, to join a team. At the same time that I look for job openings to incorporate my resume, I would encourage any one finding interesting any of the skills which I apply throughout my research, as well as communicator, to evaluate my profile as a candidate for your projects (Linkedin and CV english and español) email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com


This work is protected under Intellectual Property laws licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.)

After performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, in 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new job. However, in such competitive scenario, instead of just moving my cv between desks waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I used it as an advantageous standing point to start and develop independent research in a blog in which I could open my own line of research completely free of external pressures or interferences. Through the whole project I have published pieces of research applying my own perspective focused on addressing relevant environmental questions.

The work which I present in my blog is just a chapter in my career. At Feb 2017, it has reached an stage in which its framework has been defined and it has been applied in follow-ups delivering the subsequent conclusions.

The level of uncertainty which I have accomplished in my assessments has reached enough accuracy to replicate real time developments to the point of compete with models sustained by corporate and administrative budgets.

The economic support sustaining the three years of research presented in this blog has been private based on my own capacity to generate it. Once the main conclusions of the project have demonstrated their value, it is time for my career to find new ways of growth and/or external sources of financial support.

Therefore, at this time Feb 2017, the generation of assessments over present developments discontinues in the absence of external financial support.

You can look at the whole project (more than 190 posts between Oct 2013 to Feb 2017) published at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com and also you will find some of those publications in my profile at ResearchGate

I am living in Spain free to relocate geographically worldwide.

Since October 2013 I have been publishing pieces of research studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.

Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License,  WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in Researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.

Author’s Disclosure Declaration

For those unaware of the content offered in this blog I might have to issue a warning: Handle with care. Also with the product obtained from scientific analytical thinking there are traces of personal and professional “passion”, by-products obtained from “original and unpeered grey matter juice” originated from “independent critical thinking”. Also sometimes the packaging might be rough around the edges due to its “unfunded nature”.

4 years ago I joined a discussion which made me realise how much knowledge was settled on the past, built upon past conventions and unable to give answers about present developments in all parts of our environment. From the impact from GMOs, plastics, soils degradation, atmospheric composition, land use and cover, water cycles, … I had addressed scientifically unanswered questions before doing my PhD so I decided to give it a go and to offer my take over those gaps. It has been a pilgrimage to become aware of how much faith and fear is put on scientific publishing above raw understanding and discussion.

I do not know how far this blog will go, however, it represents the assessment of a global process and I expect that past posts will become a description of continuous present for the next years.

Altogether, the body of work which represents the line of research presented in this blog is composed by more than 190 pieces, covering data analyses and conceptual discussions. All those different discussions and assessments presented here build together a single concept. The format applied is the result of making a big effort trying to apply simplistic approaches with the aim to allow a multidisciplinary access. Since the topics treated in my publications have implications for many sectors in the academic and not academic world, with the aim of allowing my research for open review, there is also the objective of allowing access to a multisectorial and multidisciplinary audience sharing interest.

For a more profound discussion over my assessments and analyses as well as constructive feedback, please use my email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com.

My agenda is simple, I am in transition looking for either funding to grow the research published in this blog or for a job position in any field in which my assets are valued. Behind my research there is nothing more, nothing else than to showcase my capabilities doing what I like, research. I am a methodologist. I don´t look at the color of the result obtained, only at the suitability of the method and the coherence of the result. As I have said before, if I am wrong on my assessments and conclusions, it will be better for all, and my work would showcase my capabilities anyway. A CV shines the goals obtained by anyone, but by publishing here my research, I expose myself and my work to public judgement. There is a difference between being naive and raw. If you see the difference you will understand better my work and my personal position.

The aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. So any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time of at least a month from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found refuting the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.

In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will help me in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.

Perspective

(This post is part of a more complex piece of independent research. I don´t have funding, political agenda or publishing revenues from visits. Any scientist working in disciplines related with the topics that I treat in my blog knows how to judge the contribution that my work could potentially add to the state of knowledge. Since I am in transition looking for a position in research, if you are one of those scientists, by just acknowledging any value you might see from my contribution, would not only make justice to my effort as independent researcher, but ultimately, it will help me to enhance my chances to find a position with resources to further develop my work.

I believe that the hypothesis that I have presented in previous posts in this blog (here, hereand here) could help to understand present and possible future scenarios in atmospheric circulation. However, this is an assessment based on observation which needs to be validated throughout open discussion and data gathering. So please feel free to incorporate your thoughts and comments in a constructive manner.

If you feel like sharing this post I would appreciate to have a reference about the place or platform, by private or public message, in order for me to have the opportunity to join the debate and be aware of the repercussion which might generate d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

More assessments presenting chronologically the line of research published in this blog can be accessed in the category Framework and Timeline.

For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out, updated 09th Dec 2016):

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About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Citing This Site "Title", published online "Month"+"Year", retrieved on "Month""Day", "Year" from http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my previous work as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After couple of years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, I find myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my research. In the present competitive scenario, instead of just moving my cv and wait for my next opportunity to arrive, I have decided to invest also my energy and time in opening my own line of research showing what I am capable of. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this blog has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my work and the intellectual rights represented by the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in this line of research. Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome. In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2017, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2017. Filling in or Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/
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