March 2017 Iberian Peninsula Follow-up from previous research by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD
(updated 15 March 2017 with news reports on weather developments triggered due to atmospheric dynamics discussed in this post)
In 2014 the line of research defined by the assessments published in this blog could not be verified by peer review articles due to the absence of them applying similar approach. That was confirmed by direct communication with Prof Jennifer Francis by email (in full here).
Therefore, since the statements presented have not yet been verified by peer-reviewed research, the original and pioneer nature of the line of research presented in this blog can only rely on real time developments through follow-ups in order to evaluate the veracity of the assessments published and the interpretation offered.
In that way, I have published previous posts as part of the follow-up required. You can find those in the timeline page using ctrl+F and the word “follow-up”
This strategy aims to allow for an open review over the validity of the assessment presented in this blog through comparison with the recurrent repetition of patterns unfolding in real time.
Also with the publications in this blog I have re-published previous publications at LinkeIn following such strategy:
Two examples from Feb 2017
Today 6 Feb 2017 I would offer similar assessment over the recent dynamics NH and SH as in Oct 2016-15-14 “Arctic dynamics are dominated by mid-latitude intrusions, where those generate displacements of Arctic masses of air into mid latitudes. Such events create a trans-Arctic interconnectivity between Atlantic and Pacific basins, as well as influence the developments at the ITCZ. Altogether, the general dynamics of the atmosphere would point to an increase in turbulence allowing for an expansion in altitude and latitude for the mixing ratio of different masses of air.” Link
The warming at the Arctic and the break of the Poloar vortex is just a progression which we have seen before, but at the time everybody was comfortably reassured by an exceptional warm phase of the ENSO. I do not agree with such position now as I didn´t last year. In order to test the validity from my previous assessment for this year 2017 I leave you to judge my 1 year old publication. Link
On this March 2017 I want to maintain this line of review comparing the present developments with previous assessments and statements shared in this blog:
From previous publications and assessments (see dates of publication and follow links at the titles to access the publications):
|March 7, 2015||Drops of Weather. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
The possibility of facing a weakening Jet Stream due to a decrease in the Thermal contrast between the Subtropical and Polar atmospheric regions has created scenarios in which the variations in meteorological conditions for a particular location can come without a transition. One week is freezing cold and the next pretty warm. How can that happen?
The large north-south waves in the jet stream (Rossby waves) are occurring more frequently and may be increasing in amplitude. Larger waves can cause cool air to be pushed toward the equator when the waves dip to low latitudes, and warm air to be pushed toward the poles when the waves swing back. For areas on the ground below these waves, that translates into wild and unseasonable temperature extremes, sometimes called “weather whiplash.”
Such scenario can be seen nowadays when we look at the graphic representations created to simulate the prediction for the Western European meteorological conditions in the period between the 3th of March and the 14th of March 2015.
Here I have created a video with the sequence of images generated for this period so you can appreciate the forecast describing the behaviour of the phase/limit where both masses of air get in contact and how it looks like a fluid releasing “drops of weather”.
(Western Europe. Meteorological forecast for the period between the 3th of March and the 14th of March 2015. Subjected to changes due to updating processes.)
|March 7, 2015||The implications raising from such type of atmospheric behaviour are yet to be fully understood. To begin with, the possibility of having sudden intrusions of masses of air inducing extreme changes in meteorological variables might affect the life cycle of the biota since the most of it, plants and animals, follows changes on Temp and Humidity suffering behavioural, hormonal and physiological alterations. Also it must be considered the rapid respond to those variables from species with a quick metabolism. Many of which, insects and fungi, might suffer blooming rates of growth coinciding with a vulnerable stage in the development of other species like crops and wild plants. This scenario opens questions which I believe are worthy to be included in a debate about “the possibility of its increasing frequency in the near future”, also discussed in previous posts (UPGRADED 11 March2015) Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla.)
Sudden changes in temperature might induce flowering too early or, getting affected by frostbites, depending on whether the intrusion carries warm or cold air.
I leave here one example from a paper which tackles such kind of scenarios for plants looking at the implications that raising uncertainties carry into the system of production for the food industry and agricultural practices.
|May 14, 2015||A roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
A new record maximum temperature for Spain was set yesterday 13th May, with many local records also broken, and the heat continues today (14th May) in the southeast (Temp on 14th May: All-Time May Heat Record for Europe Falls For the 2nd Time This Month.By: Jeff Masters. May 14, 2015).
The new record of 42.6C was recorded at Lanzarote Airport in the Canary Islands, beating the previous May record for Spain by a relatively large 2.5 degrees. It also beats the Lanzarote station’s own previous highest May temperature by a whopping 6 degrees.
The previous May record in Spain was 40.1C at Cordoba on the mainland, and Cordoba itself recorded a new May station record on Wednesday with 41.2C.
Further records could be broken today in parts of Andalucía, Mercia and Valenciana as air continues to feed in from North Africa. However, a cold front is pushing gradually southeastwards across Spain, bringing cooler air across much of the country by the end of the week.
Well, next we have the forecast for a sudden drop of Temp in just 24 hours and even moving to freezing (0ºC) on Wednesday 20th May.
Starting from Wednesday May 20th polar-maritime air masses will flow towards Spain, with drops in temperature being forecasted reaching as low as 0ºC in some parts of the North of Spain (2m Temp Forecast GFS).
I believe that the Iberian peninsula can be a very relevant indicator for the potential evolution of global changes in atmospheric developments and climatic anomalies, due to its position in Latitude and conglomeration of contrasts in a relatively small space of climatic influences, from Oceanic and maritime in the West and East to continental from North Europe and Africa in the South. Cold blasts have found their way South in Winter and burning Heat has no opposition moving North now 14th May. And these anomalies are not Solar related by activity or angle of incidence.
Follow up from previous posts:
This type of situations brings back some previous discussions addressed in several posts, in which I have point out the relevance of facing changes in the severity for the transition between climatic phases due to atmospheric alterations.
From: New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) October 21, 2014 DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4859.3440
The theory that I have developed follows the work published previously by scientists Judah Cohen, Masato Mori, Colin Summerhayes, Coumou and Ted Shepherd, whom all together supported the theory of that early snowfall over Asia increases albedo leading to heat retention in the atmosphere provoking Arctic ice to melt. Decreased snow cover decreases albedo and enhance heat absorption. Ultimately, the enhanced capacity of the Arctic to absorb heat would lead to “amplify” atmospheric heat absorption already being fuelled with GHGs. Such increase in atmospheric temperature would reduce the thermal contrast required for a strong jet stream and consequently originating disturbance in atmospheric weather patterns associated.
What I propose with my hypothesis is that Arctic Amplification is a consequence and not the trigger. That it is a symptom and not the causation.
What I am trying to highlight in my theory are the possible mechanisms which would explain: changes in albedo which support Arctic Amplification, early snowfalls in central Asia, Arctic ice cover meltdown and oceanic increases in salinity and ultimately, the origin of atmospheric blocking patterns and the pause in T raise unified in single principle: Increasing conc. of CO2 and water vapour induce a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation.
I am looking at the implications of having the Arctic circulation not “Amplifying” but “Absorbing” constant increases in atm CO2 and Water vapour. In my approach, instead of looking at what happens in the Arctic as the origin of a chain reaction, I look at what happens in the Arctic just as a side effect (with its own implications) of a more wide process resultant from a reduction between the differential gradients of energy driving the atmospheric global circulation, being water vapour the carrier of the energy being dispersed all over the atmosphere.”
Based on my theory, Greenhouse gases store energy which leads to an increase in global temperature. This increase in T, altogether with synergistic effects of aerosols, allows more water vapor to be contained in the atmosphere, which consequently adds more energy into the atmosphere in form of latent heat and kinetic energy. Therefore, this increase in atmospheric energy being carried and distributed all over the hemisphere would infuse power into atmospheric patterns at the same time that it would also reduce the differential energetic gradient between cyclonic events and their surroundings in order to dissipate the energy carried within. Consequently, the energy of those cyclonic events (Low and High pressures) would persist for longer throughout time, altitude and location. Such scenario would decrease the strength of barriers build upon steep differential gradients like the Polar Jet Stream. Furthermore, it would increase the frequency in which masses of warm air from low latitudes would get introduced in polar regions as well as masses of polar air would move across the Jet Stream across latitudes moving further South. Following the 2nd Thermodynamics law on entropy, having decreased the differential in gradient of energy between cyclonic events and its surroundings would increase the life span of those events. That would induce an increase in the accumulation of energy in form of latent heat, water vapour and wind strength. Such build-up in power, without dissipating the energy contained within, would give cyclonic events enough strength to interfere with atmospheric barriers like the Polar Jet Stream breaking it, and also, would allow them to adopt locations that originate blocking pattern.”
From: Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Posted on February 10, 2015. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1975.7602
“The weakening of the Jet Stream would allow more frequent intrusions of masses of air from both sides, inducing sudden and extreme changes in weather patterns for Northern and Southern latitudes. Once the barrier weakens, “warm and wet” currents of air would reach further North being dragged by High pressures moving at higher latitudes without the opposition of the Jet Stream.”
From: Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) November 14, 2014 DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2500.0488
“Even considering that such exchange it has been always there throughout past Winters, if my theory is right, this pattern of unsteady Jet Stream and masses of air crossing through would start earlier in Autumn (seasonal transition to Winter) and resume closer to summer (until all warm masses of air cover high latitudes homogeneously).
The transition from Summer to Winter and from Winter to Summer will be a transition between “more frequent exchange of masses of air” to “less frequent”. Instead of having a constant gradual change in atmospheric conditions, we will have pockets of air moving across the Jet stream defining the weather wherever they move.”
From: Drops of Weather. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) March 7, 2015
“The implications raising from such type of atmospheric behaviour are yet to be fully understood. To begin with, the possibility of having sudden intrusions of masses of air inducing extreme changes in meteorological variables might affect the life cycle of the biota since the most of it, plants and animals, follows changes on Temp and Humidity suffering behavioural, hormonal and physiological alterations. Also it must be considered the rapid respond to those variables from species with a quick metabolism. Many of which, insects and fungi, might suffer blooming rates of growth coinciding with a vulnerable stage in the development of other species like crops and wild plants. This scenario opens questions which I believe are worthy to be included in a debate about “the possibility of its increasing frequency in the near future”, also discussed in previous posts (UPGRADED 11 March2015) Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla.)“
Throughout my career I have studied and discussed the influence of atmospheric water vapour in the aerodynamic behaviour of one particle being part of the aerosol, pollen grains. In my research I already pointed out the need for further research about the implications of the biological atmospheric particle load by being involved in climate events through the microphysics of cloud formation due to the nuclei drop activity of such particles. Aerodynamics_of_pollen_grains_involved_in_sampling_efficiency. Thesis_by_Diego_Fernandez-Sevilla (2007)
Additionally, I also performed research about the impact that environmental heat increase and retention has in the atmospheric biological load due to the urban heat island effect. The results point out that the biological cycles of the biota are altered increasing the duration of their “pollen release” period (due to prolonged warm climatic conditions). The scenario created by the urban heat island effect has been already applied to extrapolate global climatic alterations in the biota suggesting an increase in plant performance (metabolism) inducing more bioaerosol released into the atmosphere.
Putting together my own experience in researching bioaerosols, my understanding of environmental processes and the findings by others I find enough dots connected to be very alert about the synergistic effects that the biota play and suffers as part of the whole system. For more about this topic you can check the links below and the posts from the categories at the top of this page (e.g. posts addressing the synergies between atmospheric events and Biological productivity.)
|May 13, 2016||Another roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 13, 2015 (see full article following the link here)|
|March 3, 2016||Extracted from the publication: Seasonality Spring 2016. Continuous follow-up on my previous research assessing atmospheric dynamics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) (follow link here to see whole publication)
Seasonality is a characteristic of a time series in which the data experiences regular and predictable changes which recur every calendar year. Any predictable change or pattern in a time series that recurs or repeats over a one-year period can be said to be seasonal.
The current situation through Feb/March 2016 in the atmospheric dynamics driving seasonality from Winter to Spring is bringing some interesting points around, and many of them are consistent with the developments expected from the line of research followed in this blog. So I want to share in this post the main principles which drive the standard interpretation of seasonality, the new outcomes from current conditions and the coherences found with my previous research published in this blog (and researchgate).
Seasonality as we know it
Every planet in our solar system has seasons. But the seasons that occur on other planets are extremely different from the traditional spring, summer, fall and winter weather that we experience here on Earth. Despite what may seem like great variations in temperature, weather and climactic conditions in different places around the globe, in reality there actually is little variation in Earth’s overall climate. Why?
There are several factors that affect the weather on the planets. Those factors are defined by two major characteristics.
The astrological interactions derived from the planet’s (Earth) position, shape and motion:
And, the presence/absence and composition of a significant atmosphere.
Earth’s axis is tilted about 23 degrees, causing the latitude of the Sun to vary from 23 degrees north of the equator at the beginning of northern summer to 23 degrees south of the equator at the beginning of northern winter. On Earth, that tilt is the primary reason for the differences in weather we observe between summer and winter. Planets with smaller tilts might have smaller weather variations; planets with larger tilts could have more extreme variations.
Our orbit is nearly circular, so there is little variation in Earth’s overall climate, averaged over both northern and southern hemispheres. But other planets have more elliptical orbits, and therefore their seasonal variations in weather are much different than what we experience. We are much further from the Sun than Mercury or Venus, but closer than the other six planets. Generally, weather variations are more pronounced for those planets closer to the Sun.
The terms “summer” and “winter” tend to be Earth-oriented terms but can be applied to the other planets as well. When the North Pole of any planet is tilted toward the sun, astronomers call it the Summer Solstice; when the South Pole is tilted toward the sun it’s called the Winter Solstice.
The climate of our planet is the result of three main factors: solar energy, the greenhouse effect, and atmospheric and oceanic circulation. In addition, the geographic and seasonal variations in solar energy are determined by the curvature of the Earth, the inclination of its axis and its orbit around the Sun. These factors produce different climatic zones, which in turn affect the distribution of plant, animal and human populations. (ref link)
The Sun is the central star of our solar system, which consists of 8 planets: Mercury, Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune.The “surface” of the Sun is very hot, with a temperature of about 6,000 degrees Celsius. Due to its position, neither too near nor too far from the Sun, the Earth is the only planet in the solar system that can host abundant life, in particular because its average surface temperature of 15 degrees Celsius enables the presence of liquid water. Solar energy and the presence of an atmosphere are the two main elements that condition the Earth’s temperature. Like the glass panels of a greenhouse, certain gases that are naturally present in the atmosphere, notably water vapor and carbon dioxide, trap heat from the sun, maintaining this mild average temperature on the planet’s surface. This natural phenomenon is called the greenhouse effect. Without it, the surface temperature of the Earth would be –18 degrees Celsius and life, if any life could be sustained, would be quite different.
Our atmosphere’s natural greenhouse effect is thus a beneficial phenomenon, without which life as we know it would not be possible. The greenhouse effect is often mentioned in the news as a dangerous phenomenon, but what really is dangerous is the intensification of the natural greenhouse effect.
Current conditions (march 3, 2016). When the Old news become New news. Follow-up from my previous research.
The current situation through Feb/March 2016 in the atmospheric dynamics driving seasonality from Winter to Spring is bringing some interesting points around, and many of them are consistent with the developments expected from the line of research followed in this blog.
The coldest part of a day cycle comes after the higher amount of hours in the dark, just before sunrise. The coldest part of the orbital cycle at the NH should be when we crossed over the winter solstice in Dec, and yet there is not enough differential in thermal contrast from low temp in the Arctic to build up a steady Polar Jet Stream.
One repeated feature in atmospheric dynamics which I have observed since the beginning of my research in 2013 is the frequent intrusion of masses of air trespassing from both sides the barrier which should represent the Polar Jet Stream.
It is becoming a frequent scenario to see the displacement of cold air from the Arctic due to convective forcing from warmer masses of air getting into high latitudes and altitudes. The consequence from such dynamics is the alteration in the form, length and transition between seasons.
Follow-up from previous research published in this blog
This type of situations brings back some previous discussions addressed in several posts, in which I have point out the relevance of facing changes in the severity for the transition between climatic phases due to atmospheric alterations.
Based on my observations and analyses since 2013, in 2014 I made an assessment over the atmospheric dynamics driving the weather systems across the NH which led me to propose a theoretical approach which could explain new developments in climatic drifts.
In the following paragraphs I share bits of some of the most relevant publications addressing the coherence found between those and the current conditions. The whole work behind this piece of research is built by 120 posts addressing synergistic interactions from a multidisciplinary approach. Altogether they make a Theoretical Framework, a Conceptual Framework and an Assessment Framework on global environmental issues, addressing methodological approaches to fill in or find out gaps of knowledge, the title of this blog.
Therefore you should follow links or explore the blog in order to get deeper insight on any aspect you feel missing (from the influence of solar activity, aerosols, human waste, etc…). Also you will find videos with graphic representation of my work at youtube.
|December 17, 2016||continues from the publication: Seasonality Spring 2016. Continuous follow-up on my previous research assessing atmospheric dynamics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) (follow link here to see whole publication)
Follow-up from previous research presented in this blog
From A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla). September 8, 2015. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1697.5847
I believe that the present weather events, altogether with the tornado seen in Venice on July, represent some of the new “Drops of Weather” coming over to say that the Summer, as we know it, is coming to an end.
The reason behind it seems to be the sporadic and unpredictable behaviour of the Jet stream, which not only is wobbly in latitude, but also in the vertical profile of the atmosphere. Accordingly, we can see that when it comes to lower levels from 300hPa induces alterations in the thermodynamical behaviour of the tropospheric circulation. In turn, when this cold air touches the lower level of our atmosphere, activates the energy accumulated in the Water vapour contained in it as latent heat, delivering new forms of energy; kinetic provoking strong winds, electrostatic generating lightnings and potential carried in the mass of all the water coming from its gaseous state into liquid or solid precipitation.
I have already discussed what is my theory about what it is happening that it is generating such a wobbly jet stream in latitude and altitude. This theory was published in a previous post and it points out the incorporation of masses of water vapour into polar latitudes as consequence of CO2 forcing as the cause wearing out the strength of the Polar Jet Stream.
I also have suggested that such incorporation of masses of water vapour into Polar Latitudes follow channels which are linked with persistent cyclonic events in the Atlantic and the Pacific. The present patterns seen in the circulation over the Pacific and the Atlantic are consistent with those proposed in this theory.
Ultimately, if this theory is right and weather patterns are incorporating water vapour into Polar latitudes, it would affect:
Most definitely, I believe that the climate in our Earth is what it lies between waters. Between cold waters and warms waters, between waters in the atmosphere or those in the ground inland or at the oceans. Altogether, our climate lies on those processes moving energy between waters in the form of gas, liquid or solid.
Data available supporting previous assessments
An international team of university and NASA scientists examined the relationship between changes in surface temperature and vegetation growth from 45 degrees north latitude to the Arctic Ocean. Results show temperature and vegetation growth at northern latitudes now resemble those found 4 degrees to 6 degrees of latitude farther south as recently as 1982.
“Higher northern latitudes are getting warmer, Arctic sea ice and the duration of snow cover are diminishing, the growing season is getting longer and plants are growing more,” said Ranga Myneni of Boston University’s Department of Earth and Environment. “In the north’s Arctic and boreal areas, the characteristics of the seasons are changing, leading to great disruptions for plants and related ecosystems.”
The study was published March 10, 2013 in the journal Nature Climate Change.
The missing links
The transition from facing changes at a regional scale into changes at global scale only takes to have enough regional changes to coalescence. And that applies to all parts of the ecosystem, changes in the liquid phase (Oceans), the solid or terrestrial and the gaseous/the atmosphere.
What we see is a pattern in thermodynamic circulation and biotic reaction.
Plant cover over the Arctic will increase the potential for the atmosphere to retain water vapour through evapotranspiration so it becomes a positive feedback reaction towards extending the influence of the warmer masses of air transported from mid latitudes into polar circulation.
That will increase the amount of energy that the atmosphere can hold and spread over the whole Hemisphere and beyond Equatorial limits extending to the South Hemisphere. There, water vapour will face the contrast from the non-existence of continentality so ice would increase like frost over the Antarctica. However, the Ocean circulation will be affected interacting with such transport creating a new scenario full of contrasts.
But that is just an opinion, my opinion.
About “applying Stefan Boltzmann calculations to explain that the whole radiative forcing greenhouse conjecture fails to explain reality”. I have to say the following:
“Thermal energy is being transferred by diffusion”. Heat is thermal energy. It can be transferred from one place to another by conduction, convection and radiation. Conduction and convection involve particles, radiation involves electromagnetic waves. Heat can only be transferred between “existent” molecules. Without them, like in out-space, there is not temperature or heat transference. Our atmosphere contains heat because it contains molecular compounds absorbing and transferring heat. The case of GHGs is that they are among the most thermal conductive molecular compounds found in the atmosphere. It is like cooking dry food. You need a substance to transfer the heat to cook aliments. Oil is good but water gets the heat inside the food cause its heat properties. There is no diffusion of heat in a vacuum of thermal flask. Thus it is important to identify the type and concentration of atmospheric gases.
“May be” the Stefan Boltzmann calculations can not be applied to explain the mean surface temperature of a body which is not homogeneous in composition in any of its parts, solid-liquid and gaseous, none-uniform on its surface albedo, thermodynamically active on its core and atmosphere, irregularly shaped, not flat neither a perfect sphere, in constant motion and with 50% of its surface solar radiated meanwhile the other 50% is not. All those contrasts in the horizontal and the vertical assessments are relevant. Maybe the stratification of heat could be explain by S-B for a uniform body like the Sun, and yet At 20,000-25,000 km away from the solar surface the corona has an average temperature of 1,000,000 to 2,000,000 million degrees Celsius. But the density is very low, about 1 billion times less dense than water.
When it is applied on this matter the idea of that “The surface is cooled by GHG’s in the atmosphere. It is the atmosphere itself that is warmed as infrared light, reflected from earth’s surface, travels back toward space. This reflected light is absorbed by GHG’s and the air is warmed. This is the heat trapping property of GHG’s”
I would say that such point is similar to what happens by role played by sweat in cooling the body by allowing water to evaporate off the skin. The problem from GHGs is that their presence above the earth’s surface reduce the difference in temperature between them and the surface. In that way the reduction in the difference reduces the capacity of the atmosphere to diffuse the heat received at the surface. That creates positive feedback loop which moves towards increasing the amount of heat being contained in both parts of the column.
… (see full assessment following the link to the publication)
|November 17, 2016||Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)
See it full following the link at the title.
|December 17, 2016||Extract from the publication: Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)
Being CO2 a molecular element enhancing atmospheric thermal conductance, and aerosols acting as droplet nuclei in cloud formation, their combined effect altogether with alterations in the water cycles and energy flows due to anthropogenic activity would increase the capacity for the atmosphere to absorb, contain and disperse water vapour. But more importantly, this water vapour would incorporate an increase of energy into the atmospheric pool which it would affect atmospheric developments such as the strength, paths and life periods of lows and highs as much as those events concentrating energetic discharges in form of precipitation, wind and heat or cold waves.
The outcome from such assessment foresees an spreading of energy through the atmosphere in Latitude and Altitude, driving a climatic drift which will affect life cycles in animals and plants as well as in soil degradation and water availability.
The assessments presented through the series of publications shared in the line of research published in this blog apply a point of view which considers an order of factors driven by thermodynamical principles. As the process followed in the order of the steps taken to cook the recipe to make an environment.
All these assessments foresee a change in the progression of Seasonality from Orbital Driven to Kinetic driven, considering kinetic an expression of the energy being driving the seasonal climatic regimes around the latitudes and longitudes.
… (see full assessment following the link to the publication)
Current state of the atmospheric dynamics March 2017
Maximum temperature variation from 8 to 15 March, 2017 in the Iberian Peninsula and Balearic Islands. Map of extreme foreseen temperatures and its variations regarding the day before.
News from the weather developments triggered under the presented atmospheric dynamics.
- 9th March 2017 netweather.tv presenting the actual developments over the Iberian peninsula and South of Europe:
Looking For Spring Warmth? Head To Spain (But Not Greece) – Blog by Nick Finnis – Netweather.tv
Thursday will feel fairly spring-like across southern parts of the UK, especially in the sunshine, with temperatures reaching the mid-teens, perhaps a few spots hitting 16C.
But if you are after more summer-like warmth in early March, you don’t have to look far afield to tropical climes. It will turn unusually warm across much of Iberia by the end of the week, with temperatures forecast to hit the high 20s across parts of southern and eastern Spain on Friday and Saturday, mid-20s widely elsewhere for Spain and Portugal. Even southern France will see temperatures creep into the low 20s on Friday.
Although not as warm as Iberia, northern and western Italy, Corsica, Sardinia and Sicily reaching 20-21C in Friday, though back into the high teens on Saturday.
The anomalous early Spring warmth more akin to late Spring is being brought by a dome of warm air characterised by high air thickness spreading north across Iberia and the western Mediterranean in response to an upper trough digging south near the Azores at the end of the week and southwesterly jet ahead of it dragging sub-tropical warmth north.
But don’t head any further east for sunshine and warmth, i.e. SE Europe and even western Turkey, because a slow-moving area of low pressure centred over Turkey will pull an increasingly strong and chilly north to northeasterly wind across the Balkans and Greece, along with outbreaks of heavy rain or frequent heavy showers – with temperatures suppressed into single figures across interior parts of the Balkans and Greece. Some large rainfall totals by Sunday too across parts of SE Europe.
- Mon, Mar 13, 2017 |express.co.uk
WARMER THAN SPAIN: Britain to rival IBIZA as temperatures SOAR to 64F from tomorrow PARTS of the UK will be as warm as Spanish hotspots Ibiza, Barcelona and Madrid as temperatures soar from tomorrow.
The UK could see one of the warmest days of the year so far, with Southerners set to see the mercury peaking in the late teens – almost 8C warmer than the average 10.3C (50.54F) for the area at this time of year. The Met Office said those in the South East could be basking in highs of 17C (62.6F) or 18C (64.4F) – around the maximum daytime temperatures forecast for today in Ibiza, Barcelona and Madrid.
Temperatures will have to soar higher than the 18.3C (65F) recorded on February 20 in Northolt, north-west London, and Kew Gardens, south-west London, to become the hottest day of 2017.
The average maximum temperature for this time of year, taking in all of the UK, is 8.9C (48.02F) – significantly lower than highs reached Monday.
Murlough in County Down reached 15.9C (60.62F), the Giant’s Causeway hit 15.8C (60.44F), Usk in Monmouthshire enjoyed 15.4C (59.72F), and Saint James’s Park in central London reached 15.3C (59.54F).
Towards the end of the week temperatures will fall but remain just above the average maximum highs for mid-March.
- 14 MAR 2017 – 11:09 CET Alicante. Spain.
ElPais.com. Alicante left reeling from the deluge of the century Record downpour floods ground-floor premises and shuts down schools; no victims reported.
The Spanish coastal city of Alicante on Tuesday morning began cleanup duties following the biggest downpour in recent memory. Rainfall in the popular Mediterranean destination was a whopping 137 liters per square meter (equivalent to 137mm), half of which came down in the space of just two hours. That makes the past 24 hours the city’s third-rainiest day in the last 80 years, and the rainiest 24-hour period so far in the 21st century, according to AEMET, the Spanish meteorology agency. All of Spain was under a weather advisory on Monday for adverse weather conditions that brought rain, wind and snow to many parts of the country.
The city’s weather records, which go back to 1934, show that the all-time record was set on September 30, 1997 when precipitation was 270.3 liters per square meter. The next biggest rainfall was logged at 233.1 liters per square meter on October 20, 1982. The third was last night.
AEMET noted that for the first time, such a big downpour did not take place in the fall. Average rainfall for March is only 23 liters.
The rain was all the more surprising as only three days earlier, on March 10, Alicante had shattered the record for high winter temperatures: it was 32.5ºC in the city.
[Alicante, now: Avenida de Denia]
The Valencia region had not experienced such a weather rollercoaster since 1985, when January and March were very cold while February was unseasonably warm, said Jorge Olcina, head of the Climatology Lab at the University of Alicante.
[Santa Faz Monastery and square]
All of Spain was under a weather advisory on Monday for adverse weather conditions that brought rain, wind and snow to many parts of the country.
La previsión de @ElTiempo_tve la cuenta en directo @Zubiaurre_TVE. Forecast
¿Por qué se originó esta tromba de agua histórica en Alicante? Nos lo cuenta @abarniol_tve. How did it form the downpour at Alicante?
This work is protected under Intellectual Property laws licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.)
As from March 2017, I am in transition looking for new opportunities and new challenges, to join a team. At the same time that I look for job openings to incorporate my resume, I would encourage any one finding interesting any of the skills which I apply throughout my research, as well as communicator, to evaluate my profile as a candidate for your projects (Profile at Linkedin and CV english and español) email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com
After performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, in 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new job. However, in such competitive scenario, instead of just moving my cv between desks waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I used it as an advantageous standing point to start and develop independent research in a blog in which I could open my own line of research completely free of external pressures or interferences. Through the whole project I have published pieces of research applying my own perspective focused on addressing relevant environmental questions.
The work which I present in my blog is just a chapter in my career. At Feb 2017, it has reached an stage in which its framework has been defined and it has been applied in follow-ups delivering the subsequent conclusions.
The level of uncertainty which I have accomplished in my assessments has reached enough accuracy to replicate real time developments to the point of compete with models sustained by corporate and administrative budgets.
The economic support sustaining the three years of research presented in this blog has been private based on my own capacity to generate it. Once the main conclusions of the project have demonstrated their value, it is time for my career to find new ways of growth and/or external sources of financial support.
Therefore, at this time Feb 2017, the generation of assessments over present developments discontinues in the absence of external financial support.
You can look at the whole project (more than 190 posts between Oct 2013 to Feb 2017) published at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com and also you will find some of those publications in my profile at ResearchGate
I am living in Spain free to relocate geographically worldwide.
Since October 2013 I have been publishing pieces of research studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.
Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License, WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in Researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.
Author’s Disclosure Declaration
For those unaware of the content offered in this blog I might have to issue a warning: Handle with care. Also with the product obtained from scientific analytical thinking there are traces of personal and professional “passion”, by-products obtained from “original and unpeered grey matter juice” originated from “independent critical thinking”. Also sometimes the packaging might be rough around the edges due to its “unfunded nature”.
4 years ago I joined a discussion which made me realise how much knowledge was settled on the past, built upon past conventions and unable to give answers about present developments in all parts of our environment. From the impact from GMOs, plastics, soils degradation, atmospheric composition, land use and cover, water cycles, … I had addressed scientifically unanswered questions before doing my PhD so I decided to give it a go and to offer my take over those gaps. It has been a pilgrimage to become aware of how much faith and fear is put on scientific publishing above raw understanding and discussion.
I do not know how far this blog will go, however, it represents the assessment of a global process and I expect that past posts will become a description of continuous present for the next years.
Altogether, the body of work which represents the line of research presented in this blog is composed by more than 190 pieces, covering data analyses and conceptual discussions. All those different discussions and assessments presented here build together a single concept. The format applied is the result of making a big effort trying to apply simplistic approaches with the aim to allow a multidisciplinary access. Since the topics treated in my publications have implications for many sectors in the academic and not academic world, with the aim of allowing my research for open review, there is also the objective of allowing access to a multisectorial and multidisciplinary audience sharing interest.
For a more profound discussion over my assessments and analyses as well as constructive feedback, please use my email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com.
My agenda is simple, I am in transition looking for either funding to grow the research published in this blog or for a job position in any field in which my assets are valued. Behind my research there is nothing more, nothing else than to showcase my capabilities doing what I like, research. I am a methodologist. I don´t look at the color of the result obtained, only at the suitability of the method and the coherence of the result. As I have said before, if I am wrong on my assessments and conclusions, it will be better for all, and my work would showcase my capabilities anyway. A CV shines the goals obtained by anyone, but by publishing here my research, I expose myself and my work to public judgement. There is a difference between being naive and raw. If you see the difference you will understand better my work and my personal position.
The aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. So any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time of at least a month from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found refuting the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.
In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com
If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will help me in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.
(This post is part of a more complex piece of independent research. I don´t have funding, political agenda or publishing revenues from visits. Any scientist working in disciplines related with the topics that I treat in my blog knows how to judge the contribution that my work could potentially add to the state of knowledge. Since I am in transition looking for a position in research, if you are one of those scientists, by just acknowledging any value you might see from my contribution, would not only make justice to my effort as independent researcher, but ultimately, it will help me to enhance my chances to find a position with resources to further develop my work.
I believe that the hypothesis that I have presented in previous posts in this blog (here, hereand here) could help to understand present and possible future scenarios in atmospheric circulation. However, this is an assessment based on observation which needs to be validated throughout open discussion and data gathering. So please feel free to incorporate your thoughts and comments in a constructive manner.
If you feel like sharing this post I would appreciate to have a reference about the place or platform, by private or public message, in order for me to have the opportunity to join the debate and be aware of the repercussion which might generate d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com
More assessments presenting chronologically the line of research published in this blog can be accessed in the category Framework and Timeline.
For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out, updated 09th Dec 2016):
- New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on October 21, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-k3
- Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on November 14, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-mt
- State of the Polar Vortex. Broken? From 29 Nov 2014 to 5th Jan 2015 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla). Posted on November 29, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-o7
- Gathering data to make visible the invisible (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on December 22, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-pN
- Probability in the atmospheric circulation dictating the Weather (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on January 15, 2015. http://wp.me/p403AM-rm
- Meteorological Outlook Feb 2015 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on February 7, 2015. http://wp.me/p403AM-sU
- Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Posted on February 10, 2015. http://wp.me/p403AM-to
- Drops of Weather. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 7, 2015
- Steering climate´s course (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 27, 2015
- Climate. Looking at the forest for the trees (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 9, 2015
- Matching Features Between Land Surface and Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 23, 2015
- Domesticating Nature. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 7, 2015
- A roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 14, 2015
- Talking about climate (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 12, 2015
- News from an Ecosystem (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 20, 2015
- In climate it is becoming Less probable to not have a High probability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 29, 2015
- Drinking from the source (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 5, 2015
- Communication takes more than just publishing thoughts. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 9, 2015
- Extreme climatic events, implications for projections of species distributions and ecosystem structure (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 18, 2015
- The scope of Environmental Science and scientific thought. From Thought-driven to Data-driven, from Critical Thinking to Data Management. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 26, 2015
- Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Drift. Are we there yet? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 2, 2015
- Lateral thinking. From Micro to Macro (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 4, 2015
- Something for the curious minds. Climate and Streamlines (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 17, 2015
- Solar Activity and Human Activity, Settling Their Environmental Liability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 24, 2015
- Atmospheric composition and thermal conductivity? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)August 6, 2015
- Latitudinal barriers and typhoons (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)August 13, 2015
- The Earth is Ticking (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)August 20, 2015
- What if, the relevant bit lies hidden on identifying the pattern behind similarities instead of trying to match anomalies? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)September 3, 2015
- A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla).September 8, 2015
- Sensing Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)September 22, 2015
- InFormAtion. The “Act” of “Giving Form” to “Knowledge” (by Diego fdez-Sevilla)September 30, 2015
- Arctic Intake of Water Vapour (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 7, 2015
- SST Anomalies and Heat Waves. Are They Not All Just Heat Displacements? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 16, 2015
- Discussing Climatic Teleconnections. Follow Up On My Previous Research (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 21, 2015
- Follow-up on Arctic circulation 30 Oct 2015 ( by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 30, 2015
- There is Ice or Frost In Antarctica? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)November 5, 2015
- Starts Raining Drops of Winter at Mid-Latitudes. The new Autumn? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)November 10, 2015
- Press release. Ask NASA (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)November 12, 2015
- Following the Behaviour of the Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)November 19, 2015
- What Is Wrong With The Concept “Bio”? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)November 26, 2015
- Energy. Looking For Sources of Something We Waste. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)December 3, 2015
- SOILS. The Skeleton Holding The Muscle On Our Ecosystems (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)December 9, 2015
- Could It Be El Niño The New “Wolf” Coming? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)December 11, 2015
- Climate and weather December 2015. Another Polar Vortex another Heat Wave? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)December 18, 2015
- New insides on old concepts (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)December 23, 2015
- Atmospheric Dynamics And Shapes (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)January 13, 2016
- European weather. Old News, Same News? by Diego Fdez-SevillaJanuary 15, 2016
- Observational events on atmospheric dynamics. A follow-up assessment over the theory proposed over Energetic gradients by Diego Fdez-Sevilla.January 29, 2016
- North American Weather. Old News, Same News? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)January 20, 2016
- Observed Atmospheric Dynamics. A follow-up assessment over the theory proposed on Energetic gradients by Diego Fdez-Sevilla.January 29, 2016
- (updated 11-18 Feb2016) Polar Vortex, Old News, Same News? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)February 4, 2016
- Forecasting Past Events. Snow Coming to Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)February 12, 2016
- Do You Believe in the Value of Your Work? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)February 23, 2016
- Forecasts For Ecosystems (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)February 25, 2016
- Seasonality Spring 2016. Continuous follow-up on my previous research assessing atmospheric dynamics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 3, 2016
- Tangled in Words. Atmospheric Dynamics, Stefan Boltzmann Calculations and Energy Balance (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 10, 2016
- Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 22, 2016
- Plant growth, CO2, Soil and Nutrients. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 31, 2016
- Atmospheric Dynamics, GHG’s, Thermal Conductivity and Polar Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 6, 2016
- Feedback. Have Your Say. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 14, 2016
- Plant an Idea and Then a Tree… But Which Ones? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 22, 2016
- (updated 28/April/2016) Severe weather warning 27 April 2016 USA (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 28, 2016
- Research Update May 2016 (by Diego Fdez-sevilla)May 6, 2016
- Scientifically Challenged (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 12, 2016
- Another roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 13, 2015May 13, 2016
- Our Environment. One Vision and Many Thoughts. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 20, 2016
- Atmospheric Circulation and the Mixing Zone. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 26, 2016
- When Temperature Becomes Something Else (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 30, 2016
- Settled Science (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 9, 2016
- The Butterfly Effect on Arctic Circulation. (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 10, 2016
- Who has the right and the responsibility to discuss Climate as a topic of debate? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)June 20, 2016
- Snap shot of a day 22 June 2016. Follow-up on previous research over atmospheric dynamics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)June 22, 2016
- Atmospheric mixing. Indian Basin June 2016 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)July 1, 2016
- Research From The Bench (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) July 6, 2016
- Every Little Counts (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) July 13, 2016
- Dream Your Way Out (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) July 15, 2016
- Atmospheric Dynamics. Foreseeable, At The Moment. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)July 19, 2016
- The Colour of Intelligence (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) July 20, 2016
- Climbing The Hill Of Development (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) July 27, 2016
- Climbing the Hill of Acknowledgement. Peer reviewed articles supporting previous assessments and research published in this blog. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) July 28, 2016
- Environmental Questions and Answers for Petrol Fans (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)August 2, 2016
- What is on the menu? “Plastic” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) August 4, 2016
- The Compartmentalization of Evolution (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) August 5, 2016
- Ups and Downs on Climatic Assessments. A Matter of Multiple Perspectives from the Same Point of View (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) August 12, 2016
- Climate. The Long Distance Between Science And Politics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) August 21, 2016
- Aug 2016 Follow-up on previous assessments. Atmospheric Dynamics, Temperature Displacements, Atmospheric Mixing (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) August 26, 2016
- Climate Drift, The True Meaning of Things and the Drift of Those. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) September 2, 2016
- Summer is what summer brings (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) September 5, 2016
- In Climate, Too Many Strange Things Are Happening (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)September 6, 2016
- Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) September 14, 2016
- Solar Forcing in Our Climatic and Atmospheric Dynamics. Location, Location, Location (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) September 22, 2016
- Forecasting Past Events In Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)October 1, 2016
- Equatorial Dynamics. A conversation between Joaquin and Matthew (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) October 7, 2016
- Global Mixing in Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.) October 13, 2016
- Energy in our environmental systems. Follow-up on previous assessments. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) October 19, 2016
- Another Heat Wave Another Polar Vortex II … Broken (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)October 25, 2016
- Autumn and the NH Polar Jet Stream (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) October 27, 2016
- Forecast Unusual (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) November 4, 2016
- Climate. Too Simple To Be It (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) November 7, 2016
- Cyclonic Alignment Towards the Arctic (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) November 10, 2016
- Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) November 17, 2016
- Atmospheric Thermal Conductance (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) November 25, 2016
- Just Thinking on Climate (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) November 30, 2016
- So Many Questions, We Have Stopped Asking New Ones. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)December 7, 2016
- RECAP 9Dec16 on previous assessments (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) December 9, 2016
- Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) December 17, 2016
- Wind conditions 250 hPa Jet Stream. What a Mess. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)December 20, 2016
- Worst than a change is a pattern of no change ( by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) December 22, 2016
- Orbital Melting vs Kinetic Melting (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) December 30, 2016
- The value of having a point of view (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) January 5, 2017
- Temp Displacements. Solid Water In A Dessert Which Is Not At The Poles. (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) January 9, 2017