Autumn and the NH Polar Jet Stream (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)

Posted on October 27, 2016 by

Autumn and the NH Polar Jet Stream (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)

Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. CV english and español. Resume.

( DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25290.06084 Available in pdf at https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320473024_Autumn_and_the_NH_Polar_Jet_Stream_by_Diego_Fdez-Sevilla_PhD)

Through the NH Autumn period the equatorial zone of influence (ITCZ) moves to the south as well as the Polar Jet Stream come lower in latitude.

There are several implications derived from this changes. However, the state of the Polar Jet has been weak and wobbly through this decade. Having a weak Jet Stream means that the transition between seasons and its change in latitudinal location is not homogeneous in space and neither constant in time. Its erratic behaviour has increased the probability of seeing atmospheric developments which could be considered out of season due to their characteristics, their location and their timing. Atmospheric developments which sometimes are expressed in the form of thermal deviations from their geographical climatic regime (temperatures reaching higher/lower values than those expected for a specific location in an specific part of the year). But also the alterations brought by an unstable atmospheric compartmentalization is related with the developments of some type of storms.

The change in latitudinal position for the Polar Jet stream moving south over the NH American continent increases the probability of seeing low pressure developments moving from the East Pacific across the continent towards the East coast of America. Altogether such scenario increases the probability of having one of those low pressure systems colliding with warm currents from the Gulf bringing similar developments as those seen with the storms Juno or Jonas.

I think that we have arrived at this part of the year where it is time to start watching out for low pressure developments coming from the Pacific basin moving across North America.

gfs-world-pmsl-2016-oct-27-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

Previous storms sharing this type of genesis were called Juno and Jonas. Therefore, I vote for the next one should be called Janet so it is kept the J-N- in the name.

Previous related publications:

January 28, 2015 The origin of the Storm “Juno” 27 Jan 2015 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
January 20, 2016 North American Weather. Old News, Same News? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)

Current atmospheric conditions

gfs-world-pwtr-2016-oct-27-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

gfs-world-prcp-tcld-pmsl-2016oct-27-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

Atlantic Basin

Meanwhile, over the Atlantic basin, the weak state of the Polar Jet Stream has allowed for the development of a low pressure travelling from the Arctic towards tropical latitudes, causing floods and strong winds over the Canary Islands.

ir-25-oct-2016-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

gfs-world-pmsl-2016-oct-20-init-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

The atmospheric conditions shown by this low pressure development, through time and space, show to carry enough strength to move through latitudes and to have a vertical profile from surface level all way up to the Jet Stream 250 hPa.

27-oct-2016-nullschool-vertical-atlantic

Based on previous assessments published throughout the present line of research this scenario indicates that the atmosphere around this system is not able to absorb fast enough the energy contained by the system to dissipate the energy carried within.

This situation is not new and it has kept as constant in the recent years despite variations in SST or atmospheric Indexes such as NAO, AO, MJO…

2014_16-nh-atlantic-basin-vertical-profile-wind-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

In 2014 the analysis of the scenario created by the erratic behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream became a theoretical proposal offering an explanation over the mechanisms driving the atmospheric developments  observed. (theoretical proposal and review)

Seeing how same developments repeat their configuration in space and time brings me to close a circle in the line of the research published in this blog over 170 publications addressing assessing the impact of transformations in the solid, liquid and gaseous phases of the energy flows driving our environment triggering a climatic drift.

In a nutshell I would resume my approach as follows:

The energy flows in our environment is formed by energy sources and sinks using the atmosphere as the medium through which energy is transferred  between the liquid, solid and gaseous phases of the environment. The major change identified in geological times is the constant and increasing force behind the transformation of the structure and composition of all those phases due to human activities. Such transformation has altered the sources and sinks of energy as well as it has modified the conductance properties of the mediums transferring the energy contained in the Earth system. All the modifications carried by human activity reduce the capacity of environmental energy sinks, biotic systems, as well as introduce new sources of energy from all the activities which are applied in the development of our societies and industry.

The incapacity for the environment to use energy sinks against the energy being contained in the Earth system, altogether with the increase in thermal conductance of the atmosphere due to GHGs, and the increase in albedo due to land use and cover, increases the amount of energy being transferred within the system triggering an increase in turbulence, beginning within the less dense phase of the environment, the gaseous phase or atmosphere. Such energetic imbalance jeopardise  the structural integrity of the atmospheric compartmentalization weakening the strength of those features built upon steep differences in energy gradients or thermal gradients (Jet Steams and Polar Vortex), and generating other resilient features which have no place where to dissipate their energy like blocking patterns, strong cyclonic profiles in altitude and storms able to persist in time and distances.

Ultimately, the dynamics of the atmosphere driving climatic temperatures and humid regimes in latitude and altitude would suffer an increase in the mixing ratio between masses of air otherwise kept isolated thanks to the compartmentalised nature of its previous configuration. The outcome from this evaluation points to an increase in the erratic behaviour of seasons and atmospheric dynamics. Neither global warming or global cooling being a “global trend”. Instead, the exchange of masses of air from mid-latitudes into polar latitudes will force displacements of air masses from high latitudes affecting the dynamics of the whole system without a predictive pattern other than following the thermal properties of the mediums dominating the local situation. Thus contrasts between land and oceans (see category Influence of continentality, and previous posts ref1 and ref2).

All publications addressing this line of research can be found at the page Timeline and framework.

All started with the following assessments:

October 21, 2014 New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
November 14, 2014 Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
February 10, 2015 (UPGRADED 24th March2015) Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla.
September 14, 2016 Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)
September 22, 2016 Solar Forcing in Our Climatic and Atmospheric Dynamics. Location, Location, Location (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)
October 13, 2016 Global Mixing in Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.)

Some imagery from previous publications

You can see also more animations at the youtube channel

Circulation in Altitude 21thOct_4thNov and 15th Nov2014

3D 20th Oct15 WV N19 by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

850 hPa Temp Jan2016 Diego Fdez_Sevilla 5_5_25cs

10hPa Temp Diego Fdez-Sevilla

Author’s Disclosure Declaration

For those unaware of the content offered in this blog I might have to issue a warning: Handle with care. Also with the product obtained from scientific analytical thinking there are traces of personal and professional “passion”, by-products obtained from “original and unpeered grey matter juice” originated from “independent critical thinking”. Also sometimes the packaging might be rough around the edges due to its “unfunded nature”.

4 years ago I joined a discussion which made me realise how much knowledge was settled on the past, built upon past conventions and unable to give answers about present developments in all parts of our environment. From the impact from GMOs, plastics, soils degradation, atmospheric composition, land use and cover, water cycles, … I had addressed scientifically unanswered questions before doing my PhD so I decided to give it a go and to offer my take over those gaps. It has been a pilgrimage to become aware of how much faith and fear is put on scientific publishing above raw understanding and discussion.

I do not know how far this blog will go, however, it represents the assessment of a global process and I expect that past posts will become a description of continuous present for the next years.

Altogether, the body of work which represents the line of research presented in this blog is composed by 170 pieces, covering data analyses and conceptual discussions. All those different discussions and assessments presented here build together a single concept. The format applied is the result of making a big effort trying to apply simplistic approaches with the aim to allow a multidisciplinary access. Since the topics treated in my publications have implications for many sectors in the academic and not academic world, with the aim of allowing my research for open review, there is also the objective of allowing access to a multisectorial and multidisciplinary audience sharing interest.

Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.

For a more profound discussion over my assessments and analyses as well as constructive feedback, please use my email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com.

My agenda is simple, I am in transition looking for either funding to grow the research published in this blog or for a job position in any field in which my assets are valued. Behind my research there is nothing more, nothing else than to showcase my capabilities doing what I like, research. I am a methodologist. I don´t look at the color of the result obtained, only at the suitability of the method and the coherence of the result. As I have said before, if I am wrong on my assessments and conclusions, it will be better for all, and my work would showcase my capabilities anyway. A CV shines the goals obtained by anyone, but by publishing here my research, I expose myself and my work to public judgement. There is a difference between being naive and raw. If you see the difference you will understand better my work and my personal position.

The aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. So any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time of at least a month from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found refuting the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.

In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will help me in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.

Perspective

(This post is part of a more complex piece of independent research. I don´t have funding, political agenda or publishing revenues from visits. Any scientist working in disciplines related with the topics that I treat in my blog knows how to judge the contribution that my work could potentially add to the state of knowledge. Since I am in transition looking for a position in research, if you are one of those scientists, by just acknowledging any value you might see from my contribution, would not only make justice to my effort as independent researcher, but ultimately, it will help me to enhance my chances to find a position with resources to further develop my work.

I believe that the hypothesis that I have presented in previous posts in this blog (here, here and here) could help to understand present and possible future scenarios in atmospheric circulation. However, this is an assessment based on observation which needs to be validated throughout open discussion and data gathering. So please feel free to incorporate your thoughts and comments in a constructive manner.

If you feel like sharing this post I would appreciate to have a reference about the place or platform, by private or public message, in order for me to have the opportunity to join the debate and be aware of the repercussion which might generate d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

This work is protected under Intellectual Property laws licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.)

Since October 2013 I have been publishing pieces of research studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.

Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License,  WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.

More assessments presenting chronologically the line of research published in this blog can be accessed in the category Framework and Timeline.

For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out):

About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Data policy The products processed by "Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD" are made available to the public for educational and/or scientific purposes, without any fee on the condition that you credit "Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD" as the source. Copyright notice: © Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD 2013-2019 orcid: orcid.org/0000-0001-8685-0206 and the link to its source at diegofdezsevilla.wordpress or permanent DOI found at Reearchgate. Should you write any scientific publication on the results of research activities that use Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD products as input, you shall acknowledge the Diego Fdez-Sevilla's PhD Project in the text of the publication and provide an electronic copy of the publication (d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com). If you wish to use the Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD products in advertising or in any commercial promotion, you shall acknowledge the Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Project and you must submit the layout to Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD for approval beforehand (d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com). The work here presented has no economic or institutional support. Please consider to make a donation to support the means for making sustainable the energy, time and resources required. Also any sponsorship or mentoring interested would be welcome. Intellectual Property This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! For those publications missing at the ResearchGate profile vinculated with this project DOIs can be generated on demand by request at email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com. **Author´s profile: Born in 1974. Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my work previous to 2013 as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After 12 years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, in 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my own line of research. In the current competitive scenario, in order to demonstrate my capacities instead of just moving my cv waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I decided to invest my energy and time in opening my own line of research sharing it in this blog. In March 2017 the budget reserved for this project has ended and its weekly basis time frame discontinued until new forms of economic and/or institutional support are incorporated into the project. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this platform and at LinkedIn has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my achievements and that the Intellectual Property Rights generated with the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in similar lines of research. **Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome as well as any approach exploring professional opportunities.** In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2019, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects, don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access and DOIs found at the Framework and Timeline page and ResearchGate. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2018. Filling in or/and Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/ ***
This entry was posted in Aerobiology, Biological productivity, Energy Balance, Extreme climatic events, Filling in, Finding out, Influence of Continentality, Inland Water Bodies and Water Cycle, Polar vortex and Jet Stream, Solar activity, Water vapour and tagged , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

14 Responses to Autumn and the NH Polar Jet Stream (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)

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  14. Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. says:
    October 5, 2018 at 13:23

    28 Oct 2018 Real-time contrast Re-call over present assessment.Also shared at my wall in Linkedin:
    https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6451480318837866496
    News reports on weather events are based on describing new developments. Therefore, for every event, new arguments are developed to describe the new that justifies making it to the news.
    In scientific research, arguments increase their value the less they need to be modified throughout time in order to fit with the developments unfold after their proposal.
    For this reason, in the present line of research I have applied a constant follow-up re-sharing analyses published in previous years in order to assess the validity of the conclusions raised based on those in contrast with the developments seen afterwards.
    In 2013 I began to publish assessments over climatic developments, following 4 years of weekly analyses linking real time conditions with arguments explaining those. Such activity generated a seasonal agenda linking atmospheric dynamics and particular periods of the year as part of a pattern. This is how well my research would work for the current developments about Autumn.
    *- Recall September 19, 2017.” this year we are seeing atmospheric dynamics and events associated occurring earlier than expected.”
    https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/2017/09/19/atmospheric-dynamics-and-climatic-drifts-in-conclusion-by-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd/
    *- Autumn and the NH Polar Jet Stream (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)
    Posted on October 27, 2016
    # See full line of research at diegofdezsevilla.wordpress and pdf with DOIs at researchgate.
    Full record of shares at linkedIn can be found at the page Public Review:
    https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/diego-fdez-sevilla-phds-research-reach/

    Like

    Reply

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