Energy in our environmental systems. Follow-up on previous assessments. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)


Energy in our environmental systems. Follow-up on previous assessments. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)

20-oct-pmsl-chart

Energy in our environmental systems

Recently, NASA has released on their blog a photo about Flames in microgravity. Those are part of science experiments which are performing at the International Space Station. (Flames (video)

From my point of view this image represents, on the right: how the Earth behaves as a system hovering on space. Meanwhile, on the left: it represents how it behaves internally. A powerful, simple and meaningful image.

Follow-up on previous assessments.

In one way or another, all the assessments published in this blog are linked to each other addressing the impact from disturbances over energy flows in all phases and parts of the environment (gaseous, liquid and solid).

Through this line of research I have given major relevance to understand thermodynamic processes as the key principles driving environmental dynamics and synergies.

Climate variability and energy balance. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) November 27, 2013
August 6, 2015 Atmospheric Composition and Thermal Conductivity. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
August 20, 2015 The Earth is Ticking (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
September 22, 2015 Sensing Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
December 23, 2015 New insides on old concepts (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
January 13, 2016 Atmospheric Dynamics And Shapes (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
April 6, 2016 Atmospheric Dynamics, GHG’s, Thermal Conductivity and Polar Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
January 29, 2015 Some worthy visual resources in the media to observe the dynamics of usage for “Energy” for Groundwater Pumping and “Soil” for Agriculture (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
February 10, 2015 (UPGRADED 24th March2015) Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla.
December 3, 2015 Energy. Looking For Sources of Something We Waste. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
March 10, 2016 Tangled in Words. Atmospheric Dynamics, Stefan Boltzmann Calculations and Energy Balance (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
September 22, 2016 Solar Forcing in Our Climatic and Atmospheric Dynamics. Location, Location, Location (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)

Accordingly, I have discussed how the alteration of energy flows, in all processes derived from transforming the composition and structure of the global environment, would affect the distribution of the energy contained in the atmosphere.

May 13, 2014 Looking at the influence of continentality in atmospheric circulation. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
August 6, 2014 Inland sanctuaries of water vapour for atmospheric circulation. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
August 14, 2014 Biotic players and atmospheric processes. Another piece of the puzzle. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
September 15, 2014 Following the steps of water vapour in climatic events throughout the Third National Climate Assessment (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
May 7, 2015 Domesticating Nature. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
December 9, 2015 SOILS. The Skeleton Holding The Muscle On Our Ecosystems (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
May 30, 2016 When Temperature Becomes Something Else (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
July 27, 2016 Climbing The Hill Of Development (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

Assessments which rely on being verified by the atmospheric dynamics being unfolded in front of our eyes.

October 21, 2014 New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
March 14, 2014 The breakdown of the Polar Vortex. It happened before so, What would follow? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
September 15, 2014 Following the steps of water vapour in climatic events throughout the Third National Climate Assessment (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
October 15, 2015 Follow up on previous assessments addressing shifts on Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
October 21, 2015 Discussing Climatic Teleconnections. Follow Up On My Previous Research (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
October 30, 2015 Follow-up on Arctic circulation 30 Oct 2015 ( by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
November 5, 2015 There is Ice or Frost In Antarctica? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
November 19, 2015 Following the Behaviour of the Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
March 3, 2016 Seasonality Spring 2016. Continuous follow-up on my previous research assessing atmospheric dynamics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
June 22, 2016 Snap shot of a day 22 June 2016. Follow-up on previous research over atmospheric dynamics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
August 26, 2016 Aug 2016 Follow-up on previous assessments. Atmospheric Dynamics, Temperature Displacements, Atmospheric Mixing (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

Similar patterns and developments are occurring as those assessed in the animations and posts shared in the previous years: Arctic dynamics are dominated by mid-latitude intrusions, where those generate displacements of Arctic masses of air into mid latitudes.  Such events create a trans-Arctic interconnectivity between Atlantic and Pacific basins, as well as influence the developments at the ITCZ.

October 7, 2015 Arctic Intake of Water Vapour (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
October 30, 2015 Follow-up on Arctic circulation 30 Oct 2015 ( by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
November 5, 2015 There is Ice or Frost In Antarctica? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
June 10, 2016 The Butterfly Effect on Arctic Circulation. Peer review verification on previous assessments (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
May 6, 2016 Climate and Hadley Circulation. Research Update May 2016 (by Diego Fdez-sevilla)
May 26, 2016 Atmospheric Circulation and the Mixing Zone. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)

Altogether, the general dynamics of the atmosphere would point to an increase in turbulence allowing for an expansion in altitude and latitude for the mixing ratio of different masses of air.

Accordingly, it has been discussed in this blog that such scenario would reduce the gradients of energy between atmospheric events and their surroundings.

Thus, low pressures and high pressure events would be more resilient since their surroundings would not allow for them to dissipate easily their energy. The expression of this interpretation would be seen in the form of blocking patterns and storms hovering and travelling through days over the Pacific and Atlantic.

January 29, 2016 Observed Atmospheric Dynamics. A follow-up assessment over the theory proposed on Energetic gradients by Diego Fdez-Sevilla.

The trans-Arctic interconnectivity between oceanic basins has happened with and without the need for a strong sign of the ENSO.

Therefore, this would suggest that exchange of masses of air between the Mid low latitudes with the Arctic, through the Polar Jet Stream, is the dominant driver in atmospheric circulation defining the behaviour of equatorial winds.

March 22, 2016 Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
October 7, 2016 Equatorial Dynamics. A conversation between Joaquin and Matthew (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

All those patterns would be fuelled by the incorporation of water vapour into an atmosphere with its energetic conductivity capacities enhanced due to an increase of GHGs and aerosols as well as by an imbalance in the energy flows part of the entire environment in all of its phases.

October 13, 2016 Global Mixing in Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.)

All the recent past and present events seem to confirm this approach and support the assessments shared throughout the line of research presented in this blog since 2013.

Recent Developments

The GFS model built on NCEP/NOAA data serve as a good approximation to represent and  describe the atmospheric developments from 17 Oct to 24 Oct 2016.

gfs-t2-anom2016-oct-17-init-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd gfs-prcp-tcld-pmsl_2016-oct-17-init-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd gfs-precipitable-water-2016-oct-17-init-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

gfs-025deg_world-ced_pmsl_2016-10-11_0000utc_init

Satellite imagery validate the GFS representation (IR between 11 Oct to 19 Oct 2016.)

2016-oct-10-ir-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

Hurricane Matthew Recap

Published Oct 10 2016 10:59 AM EDT. at weather.com

Matthew formed from a tropical wave that pushed off the African coast in late September. That tropical wave was dubbed Invest 97L just southwest of the Cape Verde Islands on Sept. 25.

Matthew formed near the Windward Islands on Sept. 28, 2016.

It went on to leave a path of destruction from the Caribbean to the Southeast U.S.

On Oct. 9, 2016, Matthew finally moved away from the U.S. coastline and became post-tropical.

Posted: Oct 07, 2016 9:54 PM By BY SETH BORENSTEIN. AP Science Writer. at kmov.com

WASHINGTON (AP) – In its record-long week as a major hurricane, Matthew has threaded the needle with its track, staying over warm waters that provide fuel and avoiding land that could starve it. That’s been a bit of good news for Florida, but if does actually hit land farther up the coast – and that’s still a big question mark – that region would pay the price for Florida’s good luck.

Here are some questions and answers about Matthew:

Q: How unusual for Matthew to stay strong so long?

A: It’s not just unusual – it’s a record, if you look at it in a certain way.

At more than a week of major hurricane strength, with sustained winds over 110 mph, Matthew beat the old record of six days for storms after Sept. 25, according Phil Klotzbach, meteorology professor at Colorado State University. Klotzbach uses this date – after start of fall – because atmospheric and water conditions are quite different in the later part of hurricane season, making it harder for storms to stay strong.

Matthew has been moving over water several degrees warmer than average, on a track relatively free of higher, weakening winds. These conditions, especially the winds, are likely to change.

 

Super Typhoon Chaba Recap

By Jon Erdman. Published Oct 5 2016 08:21 AM EDT. weather.com

chaba-3oct16-himawari-night-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

Typhoon Chaba 3-oct-16 Satellite himawari

Chaba intensified to a super typhoon for a time on Oct. 3. The U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimated maximum sustained winds had reached 145 knots, roughly 165 mph, the equivalent of a Category 5 tropical cyclone at that time.

Wind gusts up to 134 mph (59.7 meters per second) were clocked on the Japanese island of Kume as the eastern eyewall passed through late Monday night, local time.

Chaba is only the third Category 5 equivalent super typhoon to track within 65 nautical miles of Kume Island, in records dating to the 1960s, and is the strongest on record, there.

Hurricane Nicole Recap

Published Oct 18 2016 07:59 AM EDT. (weather.com)

Nicole was one of the longest lived Atlantic named storms of 2016.

Nicole formed as a tropical storm south of Bermuda on Oct. 4, 2016. It meandered in the same general area for several days and briefly became a Category 2 hurricane on Oct. 6. It then weakened to a tropical storm again on the following day.

By Oct. 10, Nicole began its crawl northward on a path that would take its center very close to Bermuda. It regained hurricane strength the following day on Oct. 11.

Nicole then rapidly strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane late Oct. 12 with maximum sustained winds increasing to 130 mph. It made its closest pass to Bermuda as Category 3 hurricane on Oct 13.

A last-hour eastward wobble appeared to spare Bermuda the eastern semicircle of Nicole, typically the location of a hurricane’s strongest winds.

Sustained winds topped 75 mph at Pearl Island and at L.F. Wade International Airport where peak gusts of 119 mph and 104 mph were measured, respectively on Oct. 13.

In fact, the eye of Nicole moved over Bermuda midday Oct. 13 before moving away later in the day. 

Remnants of Hurricane “Nicole” to hit Greenland and Iceland.

Posted by on October 18, 2016

Nicole, now a post-tropical cyclone, is finally losing its tropical cyclone characteristics as it merges with a frontal system over the cold waters of the North Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports. The swells from the system are still expected to affect the US east coast, Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, and the Azores for the next few days, and will likely reach Europe and the northwest coast of Africa. Dangerous surf conditions and rip currents are likely. Nicole’s remnants are expected to reach Greenland and Iceland late October 19, 2016, bringing hurricane-force winds and driving snow.

Nicole formed as a tropical storm on October 4, 2016, about 800 km (500 miles) northeast of Puerto Rico and strengthened into a hurricane by October 6. The system peaked as a Category 2 hurricane, with 168.9 km/h (105 mph) winds, a few hours later. After lashing Bermuda, the system set to travel further north over the North Atlantic.

According to Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at CSU, specializing in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecast, Nicole has now been a named storm for 13.75 days, which is the longest-lived Atlantic named storm forming after October 1 since 1906.

Nicole was located about 1 030 km (640 miles) east of Cape Race, Newfoundland, and moving toward the north-northeast at about 50 km/h (31 mph) on October 18 at 09:00 UTC, according to the NHC. The system was packing maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h (65 mph) and gusts up to 120.4 km/h (74.8 mph) while its minimum central pressure was estimated at 969 hPa. The winds of tropical force extend up to 555 km (345 miles) away from the center.

The general motion of the system is expected to continue through the night of October 19, and little change in strength is forecast before the post-tropical cyclone is absorbed by another low pressure area during the night of October 19 or 20.

Nicole will complete its extratropical transition over the next 12 hours, and continue as a vigorous extratropical storm through the next 36 hours, before getting absorbed by the other extratropical low.

Post-tropical cyclone Nicole 24-hour forecast track. Image credit: NWS/NOAA/NHC

Post-tropical cyclone Nicole 24-hour forecast track. Image credit: NWS/NOAA/NHC

5-day Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities, October 18 to October 23, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/NHC

5-day Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities, October 18 to October 23, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/NHC

Nicole (15L) full track with Suomi NPP satellite image on Google Earth - October 17, 2016

Nicole (15L) – full track with Suomi NPP satellite image on Google Earth – October 17, 2016. Credit: NASA/NOAA/DoD Suomi NPP/VIIRS, Google

Large swells generated by Nicole will continue affecting the US east coast, the coast of Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, and the Azores over the next couple of days. NHC warns the dangerous surf conditions and rip currents should be expected.

The swells from Nicole will also likely reach Europe and the African northwest coast over the next day or two.

Nicole’s remnants are expected to reach Greenland and Iceland late October 19, bringing hurricane-force winds and driving snow.

Tropical Storm Nicole Touching Down In Iceland

Source: the Reykjavik Grapevine.Words by

The weather system that was once a hurricane that slammed Bermuda has all but touched down in Iceland as a tropical storm, bringing with it very high winds that are expected to last until tomorrow afternoon in the capital area.

The storm is currently not so far from the southwest corner of Iceland, and is continuing in our general direction. Vísir reports that this could bring with it winds of up to 40 metres per second.

While these conditions should pass over the Reykjavík area by midday tomorrow, northeast Iceland will then start receiving the brunt of the storm. The north and the northeast will be experiencing high winds well into the day after tomorrow.

As such, it is probably not a good idea to hit the road during this time. If you do venture out, don’t let the rain tempt you into using an umbrella. You’ll still get wet, only you’ll also be carrying a broken aluminium frame with a rag attached to it.

________________________________________________

Author’s Disclosure Declaration

For those unaware of the content offered in this blog I might have to issue a warning: Handle with care. Also with the product obtained from scientific analytical thinking there are traces of personal and professional “passion”, by-products obtained from “original and unpeered grey matter juice” originated from “independent critical thinking”. Also sometimes the packaging might be rough around the edges due to its “unfunded nature”.

4 years ago I joined a discussion which made me realise how much knowledge was settled on the past, built upon past conventions and unable to give answers about present developments in all parts of our environment. From the impact from GMOs, plastics, soils degradation, atmospheric composition, land use and cover, water cycles, … I had addressed scientifically unanswered questions before doing my PhD so I decided to give it a go and to offer my take over those gaps. It has been a pilgrimage to become aware of how much faith and fear is put on scientific publishing above raw understanding and discussion.

I do not know how far this blog will go, however, it represents the assessment of a global process and I expect that past posts will become a description of continuous present for the next years.

Altogether, the body of work which represents the line of research presented in this blog is composed by 170 pieces, covering data analyses and conceptual discussions. All those different discussions and assessments presented here build together a single concept. The format applied is the result of making a big effort trying to apply simplistic approaches with the aim to allow a multidisciplinary access. Since the topics treated in my publications have implications for many sectors in the academic and not academic world, with the aim of allowing my research for open review, there is also the objective of allowing access to a multisectorial and multidisciplinary audience sharing interest.

Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.

For a more profound discussion over my assessments and analyses as well as constructive feedback, please use my email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com.

My agenda is simple, I am in transition looking for either funding to grow the research published in this blog or for a job position in any field in which my assets are valued. Behind my research there is nothing more, nothing else than to showcase my capabilities doing what I like, research. I am a methodologist. I don´t look at the color of the result obtained, only at the suitability of the method and the coherence of the result. As I have said before, if I am wrong on my assessments and conclusions, it will be better for all, and my work would showcase my capabilities anyway. A CV shines the goals obtained by anyone, but by publishing here my research, I expose myself and my work to public judgement. There is a difference between being naive and raw. If you see the difference you will understand better my work and my personal position.

The aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. So any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time of at least a month from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found refuting the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.

In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will help me in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.

Perspective

(This post is part of a more complex piece of independent research. I don´t have funding, political agenda or publishing revenues from visits. Any scientist working in disciplines related with the topics that I treat in my blog knows how to judge the contribution that my work could potentially add to the state of knowledge. Since I am in transition looking for a position in research, if you are one of those scientists, by just acknowledging any value you might see from my contribution, would not only make justice to my effort as independent researcher, but ultimately, it will help me to enhance my chances to find a position with resources to further develop my work.

I believe that the hypothesis that I have presented in previous posts in this blog (here, here and here) could help to understand present and possible future scenarios in atmospheric circulation. However, this is an assessment based on observation which needs to be validated throughout open discussion and data gathering. So please feel free to incorporate your thoughts and comments in a constructive manner.

If you feel like sharing this post I would appreciate to have a reference about the place or platform, by private or public message, in order for me to have the opportunity to join the debate and be aware of the repercussion which might generate d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

This work is protected under Intellectual Property laws licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.)

Since October 2013 I have been publishing pieces of research studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.

Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License,  WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.

More assessments presenting chronologically the line of research published in this blog can be accessed in the category Framework and Timeline.

For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out):

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About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Citing This Site "Title", published online "Month"+"Year", retrieved on "Month""Day", "Year" from http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! DOIs can be generated on demand by request by email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com for those publications missing at the ResearchGate profile vinculated with this project. Author´s profile: Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my previous work as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After couple of years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, I find myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my research. In the present competitive scenario, instead of just moving my cv and wait for my next opportunity to arrive, I have decided to invest also my energy and time in opening my own line of research showing what I am capable of. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this blog has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my work and the intellectual rights represented by the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in this line of research. Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome. In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2017, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2017. Filling in or Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/
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13 Responses to Energy in our environmental systems. Follow-up on previous assessments. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)

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