Coronavirus COVID19, Man, Weather and Climate (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)


Coronavirus COVID19, Man, Weather and Climate  (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)

Community-based measures to mitigate the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Canada Link

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By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD (c). orcid.org/0000-0001-8685-0206. CV english and españolResumeInterdisciplinary Skills applied in the line of research presented.- Index for all analyses published. – Shares and Feedback at LinkedIn
Publons: https://publons.com/researcher/3387860/diego-fernandez-sevilla/
Registered: “Coronavirus COVID19, Man, Weather and Climate (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)” March 2020 DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.24007.44960 Project: Filling In/Finding Out Gaps Around in Environmental Sciences. Diego Fdez-Sevilla
En Español: CoronaVirus COV19 y la Persistencia de Contaminación y Transmisión por Contacto con Superficies. No te conviertas en un problema. March 2020 DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.27317.01762 Project: Filling In/Finding Out Gaps Around in Environmental Sciences. Diego Fdez-SevillaDiego Fdez-Sevilla

Following the experience that I have acquired over the years performing research in Atmospheric Biology and Environmental Synergies, the are different lengths and layers to go through in this piece depending on what interests you.

What is the Corona Virus and why it has become so relevant?

First, to acknowledge the elephant in the room. The actual topic in everybody’s mind, the Corona Virus COVID19.

Corona Virus COVID19

HCoV-19 (SARS-2) has caused >88,000 reported illnesses with a current case-fatality ratio of ~2%.

What is the COVID19?

The disease caused by the novel coronavirus first identified in Wuhan, China, has been named coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) – ‘CO’ stands for corona, ‘VI’ for virus, and ‘D’ for disease. Formerly, this disease was referred to as ‘2019 novel coronavirus’ or ‘2019-nCoV.

The COVID-19 virus is a new virus linked to the same family of viruses as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and some types of common cold.

How does the COVID-19 virus spread?

The virus is transmitted through direct contact with respiratory droplets of an infected person (generated through coughing and sneezing), and touching surfaces contaminated with the virus.

Fluid Dynamics coughing and sneezing

Micro droplets generated at coughing and sneezing.

The COVID-19 virus may survive on surfaces for several hours.

Since the virus is contained in the micro water droplets expelled when coughing or when speaking, it is recommended to be within one to two metres of somebody to avoid being infected by viral-loaded water droplets . That is less likely on public transport. However, it would be possible to pick up the virus on your hands from a surface that somebody with the infection had touched. The virus can linger for 48 hours or even possibly 72 hours on a hard surface, such as the hand rail in the tube.

How can I avoid the risk of infection?

That is why the advice is to wash your hands regularly and avoid touching your face, to prevent the virus getting into your nose, mouth or eyes.

The COVID-19 infection is transmitted by people carrying the virus. The disease can be spread from person to person through respiratory droplets expelled from the nose or mouth when a person coughs or sneezes.

These droplets can persist for some time on objects or surfaces around the person in question. An infection with COVID-19 can occur if you touch these objects or surfaces and then touch your eyes, nose or mouth. COVID-19 can also be contracted by inhaling droplets from a sick person who has just coughed or sneezed. This is why it is important to keep a distance of more than two meters from a sick person and to respect basic hygiene measures.

Following flyers contain information about the COVID19 published by the The following images are in png format available in high quality by opening them in a new tab.

What are the symptoms of coronavirus?

Symptoms can include fever, cough and shortness of breath. In more severe cases, infection can cause pneumonia or breathing difficulties. More rarely, the disease can be fatal.

These symptoms are similar to the flu (influenza) or the common cold, which are a lot more common than COVID-19. This is why testing is required to confirm if someone has COVID-19. It’s important to remember that key prevention measures are the same – frequent hand washing, and respiratory hygiene (cover your cough or sneeze with a flexed elbow or tissue, then throw away the tissue into a closed bin). Also, there is a vaccine for the flu – so remember to keep yourself and your child up to date with vaccinations.

Viruses and the immune system (link)

Some people do not realise that getting the simple “flu” is not about getting cold, but about being in contact with the virus. In the poles, it is easier to get hypothermia than the flu, just because in those extreme isolated places, the virus is not present. Germs make you sick, not cold weather itself. You have to come in contact with rhinoviruses to catch a cold. And you need to be infected with influenza viruses to contract the flu.

Some viruses are actually more likely to spread during cold weather. Rhinovirus (the cause of the common cold) replicates better at cooler temperatures, such as those found in the nose (33° to 35° Celsius) compared to the body core temperature (33° to 37° Celsius).

However, one studyTrusted Source found that immune system cells initiate a more robust antiviral defense at lung temperature versus nasal cavity temperature. This might mean that the body may not fight the virus as well if the temperature in the nose and upper airway is lowered by environmental cold.

But the bottom line is that cold doesn’t cause illness, although weather or other factors may weaken your ability to fight off illness.

Indoor humidity and ventilation

Dry indoor air itself doesn’t get you sick. But it may play a role in letting aerosol droplets from a sneeze survive and prosper.

Researchers at Tianjin UniversityTrusted Source in China found that students in dorm rooms with poor ventilation caught more colds.

Additionally, researchers at Virginia TechTrusted Source found that good ventilation, as well as high relative humidity indoors, renders the influenza A virus inactive.

The great outdoors

Dry air outdoors, as measured by absolute humidity, may also be linked to flu outbreaks. According to the National Institutes of Health (NIH)Trusted Source, dry winter air allows the flu virus to survive and transmit itself.

Additional NIH researchTrusted Source suggests that the coating of a flu virus becomes tougher at temperatures close to freezing, making them more active, more resilient, and easier to transmit in the winter.

More clues to why you’re sniffling

It’s likely that being outside in cold weather inhibits the ability of mucus and nasal hairs to work disease agents out of your nose.

It’s also likely that when you get back inside in a room with the windows shut and people sniffling, you are more likely to be exposed to germs.

As people return to college, school, work, and day care in the fall, viruses find ideal conditions to hop from one host to another, before cold weather even sets in.

Implications of the myth

People who truly believe cold weather causes infectious sicknesses may not understand how germs affect the body. While it’s important to protect against extreme temperatures for other reasons, they’re not the cause of illness.

Research at George Washington UniversityTrusted Source found that young children are more likely to believe that cold weather causes illness. This means that children may not understand the best way to prevent getting sick from colds and the flu.

Knowing how germs work can help health educators teach effective prevention of colds and the flu, such as promoting good hand hygiene.

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Life expectancy and life survival

Does flattening the curve work? (ref)

It did in 1918, when a strain of influenza known as the Spanish flu caused a global pandemic. To see how it played out, we can look at two U.S. cities — Philadelphia and St. Louis — Drew Harris, a population health researcher at Thomas Jefferson University in Philadelphia, told NPR.org.

In Philadelphia, city officials ignored warnings from infectious disease experts that the flu was already spreading in the community. The city instead moved forward with a massive parade that gathered hundreds of thousands of people together, Harris said.

“Within 48, 72 hours, thousands of people around the Philadelphia region started to die,” Harris said. Ultimately, about 16,000 people from the city died in six months.

In St. Louis, meanwhile, city officials quickly implemented social isolation strategies. The government closed schools, limited travel and encouraged personal hygiene and social distancing. As a result, the city saw just 2,000 deaths — one-eighth of the casualties in Philadelphia.

The city, now known for its towering Gateway Arch, had successfully flattened the curve.

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Coronavirus COVID19, Man, Weather and Climate

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Facing the Coronavirus there are people who have a certain uncertainty when it comes to judging the news being published. Many live submerged in doubts about what it may be an “Exaggerated risk of contagion” and a health threat that “is not justified” in populations that do not are elderly.

The question is not so much how many people do not have it, or how many are cured. Instead, the most important question is: how many die because you have been playing a role spreading the disease. How many people can put in danger after having been in contact with surfaces that you have contaminated without knowing it.

For example, a person with the virus spits on the street without anyone seeing him, you walk by and step on it, then you get in the car, you go through the shops, you get home, you take off your shoes and you move normally. You open doors, taps, touch handrails, coins, bills, …

When do you think a virus remnant stops being contagious?

DO NOT think just about how can you avoid contagion. Think about how to avoid being part of it to someone else.

It is not necessary to suffer the virus to be an involuntary carrier. If you hadn’t thought about it, think:

If you are from a city peron: one day you dress up and go to a kindergarden where children eat cake with their hands. How many children do you need to avoid not staining your suit because a child touches you ?, or for you to rub against a stained chair ?, the wall ?, …

If you work in rural areas, the virus spreads like fungi that spread in the droplets that spread the fungus to other plants.

And if you are allergic to pollen, the number of people with the virus is comparable to the number of plants it takes for you to suffer from the allergy. The more people with the virus, the more exposed we will be to the content of the virus on surfaces and in the environment.

Not taking into account the routes of infection in which even people who do not have it are part of is like turning the street into that kindergarden where you can become one of the children smeared with cake.

You can become the reason why someone else takes the virus home. A person who may have an elderly person at home, or someone vulnerable with cancer treatment, since cancer treatment reduces the capacity of the patients’ immune system and they are exposed to great repercussions for what it would normally be minor illnesses.

And it’s not that minimizing contact is going to serve as a medicine that cures. What it does is minimize the number of people who need medicine and care. What is called smoothing the curve of those affected so that it does not exceed the capacity of healthcare to care for those affected.

IF you make a queue now for an overcrowded club, park, coffee shop, … most probably, the next queue you will meet it will be the queue to get help from an overcrowded hospital.

So think, if you are not part of the solution, do not become part of the problem.


For those who are dedicated to current research on COVID19 I want to offer my experience by extending the previous content:

(Due to the confidentiality part of previous contractual conditions, part of my knowledge and concerns are not applicable to be public domain until they are scientifically proven due to the sensitivity of the information to be discussed. If someone considers that my experience can be useful for the current investigation please contact me in private through my email (d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com)

In my thesis I did different experiments on the dispersion of different sized particles under wind tunnel and exterior conditions. The results obtained from my research over the aerodynamic behaviour of pollen grains containing allergenic granules, can be extrapolated to water drops containing innocuolus of viruses as spheric aerosols that behave aerodynamicaly different under the parameter of atmospheric “vapor pressure deficit”. In other words, the desiccant capacity of the atmosphere sucking water from the particles. This also applies to the time that a drop of water lasts, its inertia and the possibility of seeing the load of a previous water drop (as the content of a pollen grain) re-entering the atmosphere from surface residues attached to other aerosols.

The resistance for particles to move across streamlines changes by the atmospheric “vapor pressure deficit” interacting with its shape even for particles of the same Aerodynamic diameter standardised as a sphere.

Whilst big pollen grains/droplets have more inertia to move further they also sediment earlier than small particles. But, since pollen grains and droplets in the air get drier, both get smaller and tend to follow air currents more easily, getting carried longer distances trapped in air currents. This currents are either triggered by convection or movement in crowded places. (D. Fdez-Sevilla PhD)

AERODYNAMIC PROPERTIES OF POLLEN GRAINS AND SAMPLING METHODS. Thesis Chapter Conclusions.October 2006 DOI: 10.13140 / RG.2.2.10538.52165

Based on my studies in the wind tunnel, the state of turbulence in air dynamics marks a very important factor in the dispersion and sampling  of airborne particles- Such scenario relates with those found inside buildings where the ventilation system plays a fundamental role. Regarding the spread of the Coronavirus COV19, I would like to recommend the reading of a research paper that precisely points to that factor and specifically to ventilation systems. This point should be of maximum attention for hospitals.

“Violent expiratory events: On coughing and sneezing” March 2014 Journal of Fluid Mechanics 745 DOI: 10.1017 / jfm.2014.88

Also covered by the Media: http://news.mit.edu/2014/coughs-and-sneezes-float-farther-you-think

Indeed, the study finds, the smaller droplets that emerge in a cough or sneeze may travel five to 200 times further than they would if those droplets simply moved as groups of unconnected particles – which is what previous estimates had assumed. The tendency of these droplets to stay airborne, resuspended by gas clouds, means that ventilation systems may be more prone to transmitting potentially infectious particles than had been suspected.

With this in mind, architects and engineers may want to re-examine the design of workplaces and hospitals, or air circulation on airplanes, to reduce the chances of airborne pathogens being transmitted among people.

“You can have ventilation contamination in a much more direct way than we would have expected originally,” says Lydia Bourouiba, an assistant professor in MIT’s Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, and another co-author of the study.

The paper, “Violent expiratory events: on coughing and sneezing,” was published in the Journal of Fluid Mechanics. It is co-written by Bourouiba, Bush, and Eline Dehandschoewercker, a graduate student at ESPCI ParisTech, a French technical university, who previously was a visiting summer student at MIT, supported by the MIT-France program.

In addition to my thesis, throughout my career I have carried out other studies on the dispersion of particles in the air, including a literature review on the microdroplet dynamics in the dispersal of plant pathologies.

Another point to take into account as an extrapolation of the studies on the dispersion of plant pathologies between plants is the texture and material of the surfaces, for both; receptors of contaminants by contact and those that potentially re-emit contaminants into the atmosphere when absorbing the impact of drops divided into micro-drops as splashes.

The aspect of the re-entry into atmospheric circulation of microparticles with an active cargo implicated in health issues has also been studied in the field of pollen allergies. In this case, the material deposited by pollen deposition and pollen bursts of microparticles, on flat and hard floors (asphalt, cement, …) is reintroduced into atmospheric circulation by convection currents caused in storms and by the impacts of raindrops. This has led to the detection of an increase in allergic symptoms linked to storms, even when the pollen count is low.

My biggest concern in the current situation with the COVID19 is that hard and flat structures dominate the landscape of the cities, outdoors and indoors. In this scenarios is where most of the populations are crowded and makes this effect of re-entry into circulation a constant threat to be added to the contamination triggered by all the people carrying the virus by contact.

This effect of re-entry is minimized in the field where tall vegetation absorbs a large part of the convection wind currents and the vegetation cover acts as a filter, trapping particles in the vegetation frames and fibres, reducing its ability to re-enter the atmosphere.

Based on a global estimation for the Mechanisms of Contamination for the COVID19 and the Environmental Dynamics studied in the line of research over climatic synergies published since 2013 in this blog and registered at researchgate, the climate is being defined by an atmosphere becoming energetically overcharged in which convective forcing is increasing its dominance on atmospheric weather patterns altogether with its enhanced capacity to move water vapour across latitudes. Altogether with the deterioration of the Natural ecosystems to absorb this perturbation, the new scenario we are encountering is facilitating the spread and growth of threats for which their mechanisms to survive and spread rely on humidity and atmospheric turbulence. A scenario which is expanding into the poles as we speak, extending the area of influence.

 

All previous information has a functional extrapolation that I hope will contribute to the current research.

Our Planet is made from the combination of all the organisms in a given area and the abiotic elements which affect them. For too many years it has been considered that the Earth is a garden populated by “elements” offering colourful pleasure and comfort. In fact, the biochemical processes undertaken by our ecosystems function as the most advanced piece of technology known by Humans, responsible for the quality of our air, waters and soils, as much as the sole and unique mechanism capable of interacting with the thermodynamic pressure imposed by the constant exposure of the planet to Sun’s radiation. Until we see the real function of biological processes as climate regulators we will not realise in how much trouble we are. The biotic component of our environmental system is the only one capable of interacting against thermodynamic entropy, against instability. And for as long as Human activity can not replicate such mechanisms in equilibrium with the resources consumed, it might be time to think about domesticating Human activities and invest on strategically maintaining the capabilities derived from wild natural systems.

Domesticating Nature. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)

A New Pattern in Atmospheric Circulation drives towards an “unpredictable” New Climatic Scenario (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)


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By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD (c). orcid.org/0000-0001-8685-0206 . CV english and español . Summarize . Interdisciplinary Skills applied in the line of research presented .- Index for all analyzes published. – Shares and Feedback at LinkedIn
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Whatever the discussion is about multiple future scenarios, we should be able to, at least, define our present scenario in order to work with it. In my research, and throughout more than 200 analyzes, I have worked in this direction. I have described our present scenario based on consolidating theoretical arguments with real time developments. I do not know any other scenario described and published able to do that. After seeking feedback from experts in the field by email ( Jennifer Francis among them ) and platforms such as AGU and NOAA groups at linkedIn, my assessments have not received comments or arguments invalidating the conclusions presented. I expose my assessments in this blog trying to allow anyone to be the reviewer contrasting current developments with my arguments and conclusions, enabling Official Bodies and Established scientists to consider the value of my research despite its informal format. The current line of research since 2013 has been carried out without institutional or economic support. Funding and sponsorship of any size is welcome in order to acknowledge the value of the effort already invested and to support its continuity. Author details: d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com and https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Diego_Fdez-Sevilla ( Intellectual Property and Academic Value EGU 2017. GDB4 – Is Open Science the way to go? ”. min 56 Q&A Data Citations and Credit on producing data Link to Discussion . EGU 2019 Rewards and recognition in science: what value should we place on contributions that cannot be easily measured | Details | Stream

In research, what it is relevant it is not always what it is New, but instead, what doesn’t get old. The relevant research is the one t hat survives the pass of time becoming validated by the real time developments implied. D. Fdez-Sevilla PhD.

Randy Pausch – ‘ Experience is what you get when you didn’t get what you wanted. And experience is often the most valuable thing you have to offer. ‘


Partial Timeline of Outbreak COVID19 and Responses (link)

Date Event Deaths / Cases
12/08/19 First suspected cases  
12/8-18 Seven cases documented of suspicious pneumonia; Two linked to seafood market.
12/21 First cluster of patients identified with “an unknown pneumonia” (reported 1/01).
12/25 Report of medical workers possibly infected.
12/27 Dr. Zhang Jixian, the director of respiratory and critical care medicine at Hubei Provincial Hospital, notifies the hospital of an unusual cluster of viral cases that are not responsive to treatment; the hospital notifies the city’s’ disease control center.
12/28 Hubei CDC notified.
12/29 Hubei Provincial hospital convenes and consults with a group of experts; field investigations started; patients isolated.
12/30 An ophthalmologist, Dr. Li Wenliang, in Wuhan, China, posts a warning about a cluster of patients diagnosed with SARS to colleagues. patients quarantined. The doctor is censured by authorities for spreading unconfirmed rumors.*
12/30 Notice issued and public health announcement made by Wuhan Municipal Health Committee of an unknown viral illness.
12/31 Chinese government informs WHO of existence of a new unknown virus; emergency symposium held on treatment; experts dispatched to investigate.
1/01/20 Seafood market shut down as potential cause of outbreak. Chinese researchers at the CCDC publish an article on suspected outbreak.
1/02 41 patients confirmed with nCoV 2019.  0 / 41
1/05 WHO advises against travel restrictions.
1/06 SARS, MERS, Bird Flu ruled out. Human to human transmission not confirmed.
1/07 Mayor’s Party meeting (didn’t mention virus, human transmission unclear at this time); virus identified.
1/09 First casualty of outbreak (61 yr old with co-morbid symptoms—liver disease and stomach cancer)—death publicly reported on 1/11 after autopsy. No one knew that the disease was fatal until this case, nearly one month after the initial case, and this person was already seriously sick. 1 / 41
1/9-10 First genetic blueprint sequenced and posted of nCoV 2019 (this is a medical accomplishment).
1/12 “Surge in chest illnesses” reported; Dr. Li Wenliang hospitalized.
1/13-15 Japan and Thailiand confirm first infections outside of China (based on publicly released blueprint)—transparency assisted identification.
1/14 First suspected human-to-human transmission (the wife of the first casualty).
1/15 WHO indicates no sustained human-to-human transmission.
1/17 Second death, a 69 year old man in Wuhan. 2 / 62
1/18 Community “potluck” in Baibuting, Wuhan with 40,000 attendees (severely criticized afterwards; however, human-human transmission was still unclear at this point). 2 / 121
1/20 Premier Li Keqiang urges decisive and effective actions.
1/22 People in Wuhan told to wear masks.
1/23 Quarantine announced of Wuhan; all outbound traffic frozen, WHO states this is not Public Health Emergency of global concern.
1/24 Thirteen Hubei cities quarantined; Seven provinces declare public emergency; Lancet article published. 16 / 830
1/25 10 provinces declare public emergency; NY Events cancelled around China; 5 other cities quarantined in Hubei; 56 million affected; Xi declares “grave situation.”
1/26 All wildlife trade banned; Spring Festival Holiday extended 56 / 2,000
1/27 The number of deaths and infections more than double. 106 / 4,515
1/30 WHO declares Global Emergency. 170 / 7,711
2/01 1st death outside of China (Chinese man in Philippines) 304 / 14,280
2/02 Huoshenshan hospital, dedicated to treatment of nCov 2019 opened; new mask factory commences production in Beijing.
2/03 Hong Kong medical staff go on strike, demanding that all non-Hong Kongers and mainlanders be banned entry (but Hong Kong citizens are allowed entry). 361 / 17,205
2/04 Second death outside of China (Chinese man from Wuhan in Hong Kong). 427 / 20,000+
2/05 Diamond Princess Cruise ship quarantined; Americans evacuated from Hubei.
2/07 Dr. Li Wenliang dies from 2019 nCoV.
2/10 Death toll surpasses that of SARS (774). 908 / 40,171
2/13 Party Secretary of Hubei, and the top official of Wuhan sacked from their positions; 5th Diagnostic and Treatment Plan issued by the National Health Commission directs cases to be confirmed on the basis of clinical diagnosis, including CT scans/chest x-rays. This resulted in a jump in 15,000 cases, of which 90% came from a clinical diagnosis.
2/14 First death in France; Westerdam cruise ship, docked in Cambodia, disembarks tourists who continue their travels.
2/19 443 passengers disembark from the Diamond Princess despite inadequate screening; some take public transportation home.
2/20 China changes the criteria in the sixth national treatment and diagnostic plan. All confirmed cases must be determined using laboratory tests (NATs; nucleic acid tests;). Cases that have not been RNA tested to be considered Covid 19 if other symptoms correspond.
2/21 Shin Cheon Ji Church in South Korea is linked to a surge of infections (this church also has a branch in Wuhan); Hong Kong rioters celebrate the infection of a HK police officer by handing out beers.
2/26 U.S. & South Korea postpone military exercises on the Korean Peninsula.
2/27 Australia declares pandemic inevitable.
2/29 First U.S. death from Covid 19 in Seattle.  U.S. imposes travel restrictions on Iran. 2,950 / 86,000

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“Filling in and Finding Out Gaps of Knowledge”


In  AUGUST 2014Cohen et al, published a review over the state of knowledge on Climatic Assessments: “Review Article: Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather.” Nature Geoscience volume 7pages 627–637 (2014) (DOI:10.1038/NGEO2234).
“The theory that Arctic amplification is resulting in a slower zonal jet, increased meridional flow, amplified waves and more persistent extreme weather has received a lot of attention from the media, policymakers and climate scientists. In part due to the high profile, this hypothesis has been scrutinized in the scientific literature more extensively than other hypotheses linking Arctic climate change to mid-latitude weather. However, it is worth noting that other studies on related topics, especially other studies on related topics, especially other observational studies, share some of the same shortcomingslack of statistical significance, causality unclear, incomplete mechanistic understanding, and so on”.

Between 2014 and 2016 I shared analyses over real time developments in order to validate the hypothesis behind the conclusions offered in 2013. After 2016 I incorporated the process of validating those against time by re-publishing them in contrast with the developments seen in the following years. For the Winter 17-18 I actually have re-published previous assessments with a month or two prior to the period of time addressed in order to evaluate its potential representing a pattern.

In Feb 2017, the line of research presented in this blog reached a final stage in which its framework has demonstrated to hold and support the theoretical approach behind the study bringing original and innovative insights into the state of knowledge addressing environmental synergies by “Filling in and Finding out gaps of knowledge”.

March 23, 2017 Final Review in Progress. March 2017. From ENSO to Scientific Thinking by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.33915.82726

Theories have been formulated to explainpredict, and understand phenomena and, in many cases, to challenge and extend existing knowledge within the limits of critical bounding assumptions.

October 21, 2014 New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4859.3440
November 14, 2014 Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2500.0488
February 10, 2015 Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. ResearchgateDOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1975.7602/1
October 21, 2015 Discussing Climatic Teleconnections. Follow Up On My Previous Research (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2962.7605
January 20, 2017 Climate and Indexes. A dashboard of Confusion. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25016.96007
April 19, 2018 Climate, Weather and Energy. Using a Climatic Regime to explain Weather Events by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Research DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.27923.58406

Numerous Follow-ups over previous assessments have been published contrasting their validity against real-time developments (in the timeline section below use ctrl+F: “follow-up”) challenging and legitimizing the conclusions offered:

  • Models confuse the science in which those are applied. Factions opposed in views will not come together by using models. And even there is no need for it. Darwin did not need an algorithm and a model to identify genetic evolution. The observational evidence was so strong that unified the scientific community. And evolution is a process comparable with climate, reacts to pressures.
“The Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything” is … 42 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2400.2324 May 15, 2014
Debating Climate, Environment and Planetary evolution. Define your position. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.27332.73603 October 2, 2014
The scope of Environmental Science and scientific thought. From Thought-driven to Data-driven, from Critical Thinking to Data Management. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2007.0161 June 26, 2015
March 10, 2017 Modelling the “Model” and the Observer (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.17558.04169
February 6, 2018 Feb 2018. Climate Drifts and The Scientific Method of Waiting 30 Years. Follow up on previous assessments by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18823.09122
  • Arctic Amplification takes an assumption open for discussion: “sea ice acts as a barrier for the heat transport from the ocean to the atmosphere.” Actually, sea ice acts as a barrier for the heat transport *from the atmosphere to the ocean. The line of research offered taking Arctic SST as responsible for warming processes is not considering the thermodynamics behind changes in phase (liquid/solid/gas) and the difference between condensible and not condensible GHGs. Heat moves between locations AND phases. SST warming the atmosphere would loose heat, thus forming ice.
November 17, 2016 Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.24688.35848
December 17, 2016 Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20129.81760
February 28, 2018 Arctic Warming as a Result of Convective Forcing by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD  Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34551.73125
  • Between global warming and global cooling there is global mixing.
September 8, 2015 Trans-Arctic circulation between Pacific and Atlantic Basins. A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla).  Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1697.5847
May 26, 2016 Atmospheric Circulation and the Mixing Zone. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34019.04645
July 1, 2016 Atmospheric mixing. Indian Basin June 2016 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.11803.98088
August 26, 2016 Aug 2016 Follow-up on previous assessments. Atmospheric Dynamics, Temperature Displacements, Atmospheric Mixing (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

September 14, 2016 Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.19874.63684
October 13, 2016 Global Mixing in Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.21255.60320
May 5, 2017 Mixing Dynamics keep shaping A Roller coaster of Temperatures over South Europe. Follow-up on previous research 5th May 17. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.16627.43043
June 9, 2017 “Mixing Dynamics” in the Atmosphere. A follow-up on previous research by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.23548.03209
March 14, 2018 Visualising Wind and Convective Forcing Driving Climatic Dynamics. Follow-up 14 March 2018 by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD  Pdf available at DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34233.06249
April 19, 2018 Climate, Weather and Energy. Using a Climatic Regime to explain Weather Events by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Research DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.27923.58406
  • Anthropogenic transformations over the structure and composition of the three phases of the environment (Gaseous-Atmosphere, Solid- Land Use and Cover, Liquid-Water bodies) have reduced CxHxOx and increased CxOx+HxOx, CxHx, as well as albedo, … altering the energetic balance in the thermodynamic system which conforms our Climatic regimes.
July 24, 2015 Solar Activity and Human Activity, Settling Their Environmental Liability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36702.33606
March 3, 2017 Thermodynamic Ecosystems by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.32238.10566
May 26, 2017 The CO2 Greening Effect Review. CO2 Makes Headlines To Grow Like Trees, Shaping Different Forests Offering Different Views (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.16286.33601
March 23, 2017 Final Review in Progress. March 2017. From ENSO to Scientific Thinking by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.33915.82726

The whole project with more than 200 analyses published since 2013 has an index page at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com and also publications registered with a DOI in my profile at ResearchGate

Framework

Weather, Climate, Energy, Environment and Man


The question  driving the whole debate on Climatic Deviations from “a Normal”, or Climatic Drift, focus most of the methodologies on temperature.

However I have followed a different approach in my analyses looking at Gradients of Energy in all its forms. That is why in 2014 I offered my thoughts as a theory of practical applications addressing variations in the gradients of energy found in the atmosphere.

Energy fuels the work done by warm masses of air displacing colder masses of air in their path. That increases mixing patterns generating anomalies in temperature.

The whole approach described in my theory can be observed by the increasing dynamics displayed in the atmosphere as Rayleigh-Taylor Instabilities due to an increase in global mixing between two fluids with different densities, those from the MidLatitudes and the Arctic. (January 13, 2016 Atmospheric Dynamics And Shapes (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.35973.65765

“Behind an increase in the amount of work carried out by masses of air there is an increase in the energy fuelling such dynamics.”

Energy can only be transferred, not created or destroyed. So more work means more energy in circulation. More energy in circulation can only be sustained by a substance carrying it. Either if we consider that the energy driving anomalies comes from the Sun or from the Oceansthe carrier has to be in the atmosphere in order for the energy to produce work. And the body loosing heat cools down.

A corridor of wind over the Arctic is triggered by a conversion of Temperature into work, convection and advection, which are the result of mixing masses of air. As it was published in previous analyses, such Trans-Arctic connection between Atlantic and Pacific Basins is part of a pattern increasing the mixing ratio between masses of air otherwise separated by thermal compartmentalization, like the Polar Jet Stream. An increase in the dispersion of energetic forms have different outcomes, one of which it would be a temporary reduction in the average temperature resultant for the mixing between Cold (Arctic) and warm (Mid-Latitude) masses of air as well as in altitude (SSW).

Subsequently, “temperature” is less reliable than looking at “work” seen even in the “mild” events.

(see ref- Statistical Significance. The Scary Side of Being Mild (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.21934.61767

In the framework presented throughout the line of research published in this blog (and researchgate) it has been considered “Climate” as being defined by the amount of energy free to do work. In other words, energy free to promote weather events. Accordingly, in my research I define Climate by the amount and state of energy in circulation, and Weather by the use of this energy.(ref)

Consequently, with the definition applied for Climate and Weather, my definition of Climate Drift is:

“the deviation from equilibrium of the conditions allowing the perpetuity of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in a micro and macro ecosystem. This situation can be due to changes in any component of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes can be either a change in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality or rates in the flows of energy pre-established OR/AND the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components/forces and energy sinks or sources in any part of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance.”

In my assessments I have defended that the increase in the energy pool at mid-latitudes would ultimately create an scenario with an overcharged atmosphere. That would reduce the contrasts with which to create and maintain stability in the structure required to condense energy in singular events, like hurricanes. Giving more relevance to the single contrast between Ocean/continental masses. However, the opening of the Arctic circulation through a weak Jet Stream would reduce the pressure in the containment absorbing the condensation of energy at mid-latitudes, expanding into a new volume.

Accordingly, hadley circulation gets affected (see also) generating new patterns of turbulence at the ITCZ (hurricanes, typhoons, …) as well as it gets influenced Arctic mixing zones with lower latitudes.

In this scenario TCs are generated under an increase in the mixing ratio of an unstable atmospheric circulation dominated by kinetic energy transferred by water vapour thanks to GHGs, and immersed in an overcharged atmosphere with no place where to diffuse its energy, becoming resilient as long as they stay over the ocean. So they endure like a piece of an ice rock in cold water.

About Sea Surface Temperatures, my assessments take SST as subsequent conditions driven by wind shear. So the interaction between masses of air in circulation allows or inhibits SST developments. Once the scenario is built on SST this becomes a “battle field” conditioning the subsequent interaction between the following masses of air and the characteristics of the “grounds” where the game will be played (sort of speak). Like the effect of the ice conditions in an ice hockey match.

El Niño is an event which happens in a very small portion of the Earth, it is related to the temperature of a very thin layer of the Ocean in depth, a small percentage of the area occupied by the whole Oceanic masses, and even smaller when it is integrated in the multidimensional space combining Ocean and Atmosphere.

Biological productivity amazonia atmmospheric circulation DiegoFdezSevilla

It is kind of intriguing to think why it has been so easy to conclude that such small portion of the entire system is driving it as a whole. It is like considering that the flowering of plants drives the seasons. Similarly it could be said about using SST at the Arctic to justify altogether; the lack of ice, warmer temperatures at tropospheric level and even at stratospheric level. There is not enough energy in the SST of such small area as it is the Arctic to justify all those convective dynamics.

It can not surprise me enough the fact that there is a scientific agreement followed by theories such the Arctic Amplification and Stephan Boltzmann black body radiation, which focus on single locations as sources of energy triggering warming events. Arctic amplification focus the attention in the Arctic, and the absence of ice decreasing albedo, to justify the location for the source of energy warming the atmosphere in the Sea Surface Waters. And it does it even considering the absence of Solar radiation, which in itself discards any process of albedo absorbing and re-emitting energy. Accordingly with their theory, Arctic amplification suggests that Arctic circulation affects circulation at mid-latitudes, however, all the dynamics we see point in the opposite direction. Mid latitudinal forcing pushes against Arctic restrictions through the Jet Stream, displacing cold masses of air in their path, using water vapour as the carrier of the energy feeding convective motions.

Animations from previous publications:

Stephan Boltzmann relation describing radiative gradients of temperature rely entirely on an idealized body homogeneous in composition and even pressure. Such statement neglects the nature of the processes involved in the transference of energy found in the atmosphere where there are simultaneously three states of matter, gaseous, liquid and solid, numerous compounds different in molecular composition and behaviour, as well as an active thermodynamic system made of heterogeneous cells containing independent microsystems of entropy, interacting in a macro system out from equilibrium. (more here).

So opposite from a black body, the distribution of radiation and heat across an heterogeneous system delivers an uneven distribution marked by the nature of the connections built between micro and macro systems, ecosystems and abiotic systems, gaseous, liquid, solid and multi-estate systems. It becomes evident that there is not a distribution of temperatures following a gradient defined by Stephan-Boltzmann estimations because the transference of energy is heterogeneous due to the heterogeneous composition and disposition of the matter states in the planetary system. By understanding those limitations we can identify the expansion of energetic pulses throughout the atmosphere avoiding focusing the attention over the temperatures and instead, focusing the attention into identifying the “work” expressed by the dynamics in motion, either as forms of precipitation, trans-latitudinal transportation of matter (Water Vapour), transference of radiation (SSW), discharges of electricity and displacements of cold and heat waves.

In my research I have been very persistent trying to highlight how much relevance it is given to a small area in size and depth driving global circulation as it is the SST at the Eq Pacific while an area of the same size and even more depth could be identified in the Amazon or by the change suffered in Land cover by agriculture at global scale.

biological-productivity_amazonia-and-atmospheric-circulation-diego-fdezsevilla

 

Biological productivity amazonia atmmospheric circulation DiegoFdezSevilla

Land use change Compilation by Diego FdezSevilla Publication Domesticating Nature

We have to consider that SST are measured in the 5 or less m of the Ocean meanwhile Forests can occupy more than 15 meters in depth. And both are sources of the latent heat carried out in the atmosphere which fuels convective dynamics dominating intrusions over the Arctic.

Among those analyses published in my line of research some time ago studying the impact from changes in Land cover over atmospheric dynamics:

  • April 23, 2015 Matching Features Between Land Surface and Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20035.30247. https://wp.me/p403AM-xK
  • June 10, 2016 The Butterfly Effect on Arctic Circulation. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) https://wp.me/p403AM-12H

__________________

Discussion


There have been some assessments showing major discrepancies between the line of research presented here and main stream scientific coverage. The assessments are about the concept of climate drift, the link between the Polar Vortex and tropospheric circulation, the role played by SST and the ENSO, the dynamics explaining abnormal Arctic Warming and sea ice cover,  the synergistic implications from the biotic component and the scientific methodology applied.

Polar Vortex

November 14, 2014 Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)  Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2500.0488
October 25, 2016 Another Heat Wave Another Polar Vortex II … Broken (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.13418.93124

Climate Drift

October 21, 2014 (Updated 22/Dec/14) New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4859.3440
February 10, 2015 (UPGRADED 24th March2015) Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1975.7602/1
Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Drift. Are we there yet? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) July 2, 2015
September 2, 2016 Climate Drift, The True Meaning of Things and the Drift of Those. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)
February 6, 2018 Feb 2018. Climate Drifts and The Scientific Method of Waiting 30 Years. Follow up on previous assessments by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18823.09122

Arctic Amplification

November 17, 2016 Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)
December 17, 2016 Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20129.81760

SST and ENSO

October 16, 2015 SST Anomalies and Heat Waves. Are They Not All Just Heat Displacements? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.23741.05608
December 11, 2015 Could It Be El Niño The New “Wolf” Coming? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.3238.2801
March 22, 2016 Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)  Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1968.5521
June 23, 2017 “Seasonal Outlook. June 2017 (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25428.91528

The Biotic Synergy

June 26, 2014 Biological Productivity and its Influence on Cloud Formation. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
December 22, 2014 Biological Productivity, Amazonia and Atmospheric Circulation. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.10771.99363
May 7, 2015 Domesticating Nature. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Rsearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36812.51848
April 22, 2016 Plant an Idea and Then a Tree… But Which Ones? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.3977.0489
March 3, 2017 Thermodynamic Ecosystems by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.32238.10566
May 26, 2017 Review. CO2 Makes Headlines To Grow Like Trees, Shaping Different Forests Offering Different Views (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.16286.33601

The Scientific Method

The scope of Environmental Science and scientific thought. From Thought-driven to Data-driven, from Critical Thinking to Data Management. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2007.0161 June 26, 2015
Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Drift. Are we there yet? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) July 2, 2015
March 10, 2017 Modelling the “Model” and the Observer (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.17558.04169
February 6, 2018 Feb 2018. Climate Drifts and The Scientific Method of Waiting 30 Years. Follow up on previous assessments by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18823.09122

Teleconnections

January 20, 2017 Climate and Indexes. A dashboard of Confusion. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25016.96007
April 19, 2018 Climate, Weather and Energy. Using a Climatic Regime to explain Weather Events by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Research DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.27923.58406

In the line of research presented in this blog it has been discussed the impact over energy flows derived from solar activity, land use and surface, atmospheric composition of GHGs and aerosols as well as the water cycle.

Based on the previous observations and assessments presented in this line of research, the state of the stratospheric circulation at both poles suggest that there is no need to have sudden warming process at stratospheric level in order to have a broken polar vortex. Such scenario was observed in October 2016 by the configuration of the polar vortex split at the NH without a stratospheric localised strong warming meanwhile the South pole was suffering a Sudden stratospheric warming without splitting the polar vortex.

But also, neither is required a broken polar Vortex in order to have displacements of cold polar masses of air into lower latitudes. Such configuration comes from the convective forcing triggered at lower altitudes by warm masses of air moving towards the poles in latitude and altitude.

A process of convection and advection moving warm masses of air towards the poles displacing cold masses of air in their way moving into Arctic circulation.

This behaviour can be explained by considering the thermal properties of the atmosphere as a system capable of carrying energy across higher latitudes and altitudes without dissipation and in enough concentration to affect the configuration of the polar vortex from the bottom up. Such capacity to keep momentum across latitudes and altitude conserving thermal energy can only be explained by an enhancement in the thermal properties of the atmosphere, which are directly related with its composition.

Throughout my line of research I suggest that there is one approach which is able to unify all events in a single principle. The incorporation of energy into the atmosphere is shaping the atmospheric dynamics we see affecting the behaviour of currents, storms, rain rates, lightning events, wind regimes and temperature variations.

The atmosphere might have trespassed a tipping point absorbing energy making to tremble its previous structural configuration in Latitude and Altitude.

The constant contact of warm masses of air from Low and Mid-Latitudes with those from polar latitudes has worn off the strength of the Polar Jet Stream. Such circumstance has allowed the intrusion of warm masses of air into higher latitudes and altitudes, increasing atmospheric mixing dynamics. These convective intrusions are fuelled by the energy carried within water vapour, inducing the displacements  of other colder masses of air in altitude and latitude, increasing the mixing ratio between otherwise compartmentalized parts of the atmosphere.

Such circumstance has allowed the atmosphere to spread the energy carried by water vapour from Mid Latitudes into Polar Latitudes (Arctic latitudes), being able of holding more energy than before since it is not dissipated into their surroundings when moving across latitudes.

If rain at the deserts would be a strong indicator of something changing, increasing “rain” instead of snow at higher latitudes would have a post-effect over the atmospheric circulation, and generate feedback loops.

This scenario has induced a trans-Arctic interconnectivity between oceanic basins which has happened with and without the need for a strong sign of the ENSO. Therefore, this would suggest that exchange of masses of air between the Mid low latitudes with the Arctic, through the Polar Jet Stream, is the dominant driver in atmospheric circulation defining the behaviour of equatorial winds. But also, the configuration of the NH Polar Vortex.

Altogether the research here presented points to a new scenario in atmospheric dynamics in which the Arctic circulation, previously isolated from Subtropical influence by the Polar Jet Stream, has become open to be involved in the atmospheric dynamics for the Pacific and Atlantic basins. This new interconnection will affect the atmospheric dynamics around the whole North Hemisphere. But also, by being our atmosphere a close system, subsidiary, such alteration would affect dynamics at the Equator and due to symmetric compensation between Hemispheres, moreover into the Southern Hemisphere.

___________________________

The Anthropogenic Link


As a biologist myself I find intriguing to see that our environment is predominately not described in biological terms.

Einstein made it very clear, our environment is a relative proportion of free energy and fixed energy in mass. There is one process in our system fixing E into mass, and one releasing E from mass. The “relative efficiency” of both processes is what is defining the behaviour of our thermodynamic environment.

There is an interference from human activities changing the composition and structure of the three phases of the environment:

  • solid; land cover and use affects albedo and changes in evapotranspiration rates due to biotic disruptions on wild population functionality,
  • the liquid phase through alterations over the water cycles, distribution of water bodies, and humidity of soils as well as affecting circulation patterns due to coastal deterioration and deformation, but also, indirectly due to alterations in the composition of the inert and biotic matter in the Oceans due to pollution and modifications in acidification and salinity related with atmospheric composition and thermal properties.
  • and gaseous phase due to alterations in the composition of the atmosphere from GHGs as well as aerosols, altogether affecting its thermodynamic behaviour.

The deviation from equilibrium of those conditions disrupt the perpetuation of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in the micro and macro ecosystem.

The definitive link between human activities and atmospheric dynamics is under constant discussion since climatic developments are mainly approached from the field of physics.

However, the direct link between Anthropogenic activities and climatic developments are found in biological terms with thermodynamic implications:

Human activity has reduced CxHxOx compounds and increased free CxOx+HxOx.

Furthermore, anthropogenic activities release Energy from breaking structures (C-C) while biochemical processes assimilate energy fixing it into stable structures (CxHxOx).

Anthropogenic activity is simultaneously, releasing energy from a biochemically fixed state into the Planetary System’s Pool, at the same time that, it adds thermoactice compounds as CO2 and H2O. But furthermore, through this activity of constant transformational and processing, human activities are also debilitating the functionality of the biochemical processes capable of absorbing such perturbation, the endogenous ecosystems.

Einstein and his developments were mainly applied in physics due to the use that it was made of his work with the aim to manipulate energy in times of conflict, or to understand space. The equation is simple E=mc2. The language of physics has dominated the discussion over physical developments since then and it has been established as the logical translation of climatic developments. However, in the current times, the role of scientific understanding demands to move beyond the barriers of language, either between semantic cultural languages and between disciplines.

Being myself a Biologist involved in Atmospheric dynamics applying physics to explain such a complex subject as it is climatic evolution might seem like the tale of the child claiming that the Emperor has no clothes.

And yet, it seems to me evident that a thermodynamic system as it is our planet, can not scape from the most basic and powerful understanding of our contemporary scientific evolution. If E=MC2, and the anthropogenic activity is increasing the transformation of M into Energy in the system (from burning Mass from fossils and vegetable components, as well as by liberating other forms of energy such as gravimetric in Dams, Solar, transformation of raw materials, etc,) such transformation rate will move the balance in the thermodynamic behaviour of the whole system, and the rate of such deviation from equilibrium will be related with the speed at which the transformation rate between E/M is performed: M>(c)2

________Conclusions_________

March 23, 2017 Final Review in Progress. March 2017. From ENSO to Scientific Thinking by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.33915.82726

The mere identification of seeing: numbers of trees decreased over 46% from wild ecosystems being affected through time due to agriculture, increased levels of urbanization, deforestation, same for soil degradation, decrease in O2 conc, and an increase in GHG, can not be left out of the equation when considering what it is and what it is not “natural variability”, and the future expected for our thermodynamic planetary system.

Our planet is getting fat on GHG, lacking O2, space to grow natural ecosystems and capacity to fix and store energy. Biology integrates all components in an ecosystem, yet it is missing in climatology assessments.

The main conclusion from the present study researching synergistic interactions between all transformations seen over the Liquid, Gaseous and solid phases of our global Environment indicates that anthropogenic activity is forcing our environment into A System Becoming Dominated By Free Energy. (pdf Registered at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18509.13289)

Our Planet is made from the combination of all the organisms in a given area and the abiotic elements which affect them. An ecosystem is an open system because it can exchange energy or materials with other ecosystems. Earth is a closed system with respect to nutrients and chemicals, but open with respect to energy. There is an underestimated synergistic relationship between biogeochemical energy flows and those identified in weather patterns and atmospheric dynamics. For too many years it has been considered that the Earth is a garden populated by “elements” offering colourful pleasure and comfort. In fact, the biochemical processes undertaken by our ecosystems function as the most advanced piece of technology known by Humans, responsible for the quality of our air, waters and soils, as much as the sole and unique mechanism capable of interacting with the thermodynamic pressure imposed by the constant exposure of the planet to Sun’s radiation. Until we see the real function of biological processes as climate regulators we will not realise in how much trouble we are.

The biotic component of our environmental system is the only one capable of interacting against thermodynamic entropy, against instability. And for as long as Human activity can not replicate such mechanisms in equilibrium with the resources consumed, it might be time to think about domesticating Human Activities instead of following the obsession for Domesticating Natural Behaviour and Geoengineer our Weather. 

_____________________________________________________

________Overall Conclusions________

An increase in the amount of energy being in “free” state means that kinetic processes will increasingly dominate thermodynamic processes, inducing a transition in our Seasonal and Climatic regimes from being driven by Orbital Positioning to be driven by more erratic Kinetic processes. (see related analysis)

  •  The ENSO is not a driver of convective forcing over the NH,
  • Convective forcing from Mid-latitudinal towards the Arctic circulation has wear off the gradients of temperature generating a strong Polar Jet Stream.
  •  Arctic warming occurs through atmospheric intrusions from Mid Latitudes,
  • The collapse of the Polar Jet Stream has opened Arctic circulation to Mid-Latitudinal circulation intrusions allowing Trans-Arctic circulation between Pacific and Atlantic Basins.
  •  The global Temperature measured is the resultant of mixing patterns in the atmosphere,
  • Therefore an increase in mixing dynamics creates a pause in temperature raise,
  • An increase in mixing dynamics show an increase in convective forcing,
  • Convective forcing is the work resultant from an increase in atmospheric energy being incorporated in free state,
  • The incorporation and spread of energy in free state into the atmosphere is carried and released by water vapour
  • An increase of water vapour in atmospheric circulation requires an increase in the thermal capacity of the atmosphere
  • The process of enhancing the thermal capacity of the atmosphere comes by increasing the concentration of GHGs, conc of aerosols and land surface albedo.
  • Several processes carried out by human activityare linked with the previous assessment: human activity reduces the capacity of the biotic environment to fix energy from free state into inert state by reducing biochemical processing and storage (CxHxOx photosynthesis and biomass) and increases atmospheric concentrations of GHGs by releasing CO2 and H2O into the atmosphere. Also, land use and covertransformations increase albedo, industrial activities increase aerosols and the compartmentalization of water affects water cycles.
  • In a thermodynamic system the energetic pool is the sum of the amount of energy in free statecapable of doing work, and the energy fixed in an inert form as part of mass. The amount of energy in free state is proportional to the amount of energy fixed in inert form as mass (E=mc2). The release of energy from its inert form increases the amount of energy in free state to do work. Energy is not created, neither destroyed. The transformation of the three phases of the environment forced by human activities, gaseous (atmosphere), liquid (water cycle) and solid (land use and cover), increases the amount of energy in free state capable of promoting all forms of work; convective forcing, strong winds, solid and liquid precipitation, lightning, dust storms, heat waves, cold displacements, and ultimately, and increase in atmospheric mixing in altitude and across latitudes.

Examples of processes releasing ENERGY FROM ANTHROPOGENIC ACTIVITIES

From previous publication “Domesticating Nature” (2015)

Atmospheric Oxygen Levels

Atmospheric Oxygen Levels are Decreasing Oxygen levels are decreasing globally due to fossil-fuel burning. The changes are too small to have an impact on human health, but are of interest to the study of climate change and carbon dioxide. These plots show the atmospheric O2 concentration relative to the level around 1985. The observed downward trend amounts to 19 ‘per meg’ per year. This corresponds to losing 19 O2 molecules out of every 1 million O2 molecules in the atmosphere each year.

Scripps O2 Global Oxygen Measurements The Scripps O2 Program measures changes in atmospheric oxygen levels from air samples collected at stations around the world. This sampling network provides a global and hemispheric perspective on oxygen variability. The Scripps O2 Program is based at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at La Jolla, California and is under the direction of Professor Ralph Keeling.


_____________Imagery and Methodology_________

Nowadays, there are many divisions between disciplines due to the isolated nature of their specific language and methodologies. I might not use the right vocabulary for all the fields which I discuss, or the right data or the right reasoning. But when nobody is able to offer a consensus over what is going on, I wonder, what is right this days?.

The line of research presented in this blog describes a scenario where things happen for a reason, and where there are reasons for things to happen. No model offers that much. Meanwhile “reasons” explain probabilities, models use “probabilities” to let you figure out the reasons.

After leaving months, even years of time to expose my conclusions for public discussion and review, once those have no faced any criticism or arguments refuting their value, I create a pdf file and a DOI publishing them at my profile in Researchgate. In order to maintain their genuineness and legitimate innovative nature, I keep its original state so those can be compared with any copy made by any third party at any time. For your own references and review over its originality over time with respect to other publications via scientific papers and/or news reports, you can compare the publications at the blog and researchgate with the records archived:

About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Data policy The products processed by "Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD" are made available to the public for educational and/or scientific purposes, without any fee on the condition that you credit "Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD" as the source. Copyright notice: © Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD 2013-2019 orcid: orcid.org/0000-0001-8685-0206 and the link to its source at diegofdezsevilla.wordpress or permanent DOI found at Reearchgate. Profile and verified scientific activity also at: https://publons.com/researcher/3387860/diego-fernandez-sevilla/ Should you write any scientific publication on the results of research activities that use Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD products as input, you shall acknowledge the Diego Fdez-Sevilla's PhD Project in the text of the publication and provide an electronic copy of the publication (d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com). If you wish to use the Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD products in advertising or in any commercial promotion, you shall acknowledge the Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Project and you must submit the layout to Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD for approval beforehand (d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com). The work here presented has no economic or institutional support. Please consider to make a donation to support the means for making sustainable the energy, time and resources required. Also any sponsorship or mentoring interested would be welcome. Intellectual Property This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! For those publications missing at the ResearchGate profile vinculated with this project DOIs can be generated on demand by request at email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com. **Author´s profile: Born in 1974. Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my work previous to 2013 as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After 12 years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, in 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my own line of research. In the current competitive scenario, in order to demonstrate my capacities instead of just moving my cv waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I decided to invest my energy and time in opening my own line of research sharing it in this blog. In March 2017 the budget reserved for this project has ended and its weekly basis time frame discontinued until new forms of economic and/or institutional support are incorporated into the project. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this platform and at LinkedIn has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my achievements and that the Intellectual Property Rights generated with the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in similar lines of research. **Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome as well as any approach exploring professional opportunities.** In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2019, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects, don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access and DOIs found at the Framework and Timeline page and ResearchGate. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2018. Filling in or/and Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/ ***
This entry was posted in Aerobiology, Aerosols, Air, Filling in, Opinion, Water vapour and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

3 Responses to Coronavirus COVID19, Man, Weather and Climate (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)

  1. Pingback: Estrategias de Contención del COVID19. El Sumatorio de las Curvas de Tasa de Contagio y la Exposición a la Carga Vírica Poblacional (D. Fdez-Sevilla PhD) | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

  2. Pingback: COVID19 España-Spain in Images 20 Feb-12 Abril 2020 (D. Fdez-Sevilla PhD) | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

  3. Pingback: Breaking the Mountain of COVID19 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

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