North American Weather. Old News, Same News? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)


North American Weather. Old News, Same News? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

(Updated 21st Jan 2016)

On January 2015 last year I analysed and published my take over the formation of a storm over the Eastern side of USA which you might remember, the storm Juno (http://wp.me/p403AM-rX).

The pattern shown last year by the formation of the storm Juno seems to repeat this year also. Now, 20th Jan 2016, I believe that the present situation resembles same atmospheric configuration, following the same conditions, steps and location to as 24-25-26 Jan 2015, previous Juno, raising way high the probabilities to see another “Juno” in this 2016 Jan 22-24 and even just few days after on Jan 27-28.

Why do I say this?

The following images show how Juno looked based on the graphic representation of atmospheric variables Pressure, Temp and TPW with wind direction at 850 hPa.

p_temp_tpw-evolution-before-juno Jan2015-by-diego-fdez-sevilla

Mean Sea Level Pressure, Temp and TPW with wind direction at 850 hPa Jan 2015 previous Juno the 27th Jan 2015.

Here the situation for the same area and variables during the days 18th, 19th and 20th of January 2016.

20th Jan 2016 2nd Juno

Mean Sea Level Pressure, Temp and TPW with wind direction at 850 hPa for the days 18th, 19th and 20th Jan 2016.

Thanks to NASA we can see the atmospheric situation over North American continent the 20th Jan 2016 in the following image from satellite Modis/Terra .

Modis NASA NH 20th January by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

The 20th of January 2016 the 3d Graphical representation for the MSLP shows the following image

CHART NCEP 20Jan2016 MSLP by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

3D graphic representation of Mean Sea Level Pressure at 20 Jan2016 based on data from NOAA NCEP and GFS model and satellite image from VIIRS instrument aboard NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP.

The 21st of January 2016 the 3d Graphical representation for the MSLP shows the low deepening towards the east of EEUU:

CHART NCEP 21Jan2016 MSLP by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

3D graphich representation of Mean Sea Level Pressure at 21 Jan2016 based on data from NOAA NCEP and GFS model.

The following images show the forecast made the day 20th January for the following days 21st, 22nd and 23rd based on NCEP/GFS model. The Low moving towards the Eastern side of North America is expected to deepen in the following days.

Forecasted 21st Jan 2016 2nd Juno

Mean Sea Level Pressure, Temp and TPW with wind direction at 850 hPa for the days 21st, 22nd and 23rd Jan 2016.

If we compare the current state of the atmosphere with what it looked last year through the days previous Juno the 27th January 2015 we can see the similarities which raise high the probabilities of seeing a similar weather event as Juno in the next days 23rd-24th Jan 2016 and even on the 27-28 Jan 2016.

The following animation shows the forecast given by the GFS model from the 20th January 2016:

MSLP_2016-01-20 Forecast

Precipitation Cloud Pressure 2016-01-20 Forecast

The comparison between American and the European models agree over the situation for the 23rd of January 2016 over the East coast of North America, H500 & SLP:

Forecast Model comparison by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

And for the 28th January 2016

Forecast Model comparison 28th January 2016 by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

NASA has recently published an article looking into the current atmospheric conditions from satellite.

A 21 second animation of infrared and visible imagery from NOAA’s GOES-East satellite from Jan. 19 to 21 shows the movement one system that moved across the southern U.S. on Jan. 20 followed by a second storm system that is expected to bring the powerful winter storm to the Mid-Atlantic. Credits: NASA/NOAA GOES Project

Author’s comments

Some patterns in atmospheric circulation have been repeating since at least 2013 when I started to look into atmospheric dynamics, in both basins, Pacific and Atlantic.

The storm we see this days 21-23 Jan 2016 named Jonas, shares origin, pathway, shape and behaviour with the one we saw last year 2015 over the same period of the year and location,  called Juno. More recently, we have also seen similar weather events happening  in the Western Europe during December 2015 with floods affecting large areas due to high quantities of rain.

From my research I have observed a pattern in the Pacific circulation which keeps bringing low pressures from the low latitudinal western side into the high latitudinal east side.

Water vapour circulation globally 7th Sept 2015 DiegoFdezSevilla

Once there, the Polar Jet Stream drags low pressures, like drops, across the North American continent into the Atlantic. If they meet “warm and wet” currents from the Gulf of Mexico coming northwards in the EEUU, or with warm and wet masses of air in the Mediterranean sea, the mixture becomes energised in a localised space generating strong discharges in the form of Wind and precipitation.

Europe Water vapour top of the atmosphere DiegoFdezSevilla

Atmospheric Blocking patterns have been seen since 2013 and are still in place with Highs over California and at the entrance of the Mediterranean sea.

10 Feb 2015 Wind Surf_250 hPa_Pressure by DiegoFdezSevilla

10 Feb 2015 NH Atmospheric conditions of Wind at Surface level, 250 hPa and MSLP.

Pacific Atm circulation North Pacific by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

11 Feb 2015 NH Pacific. Atmospheric conditions Wind at 250 hPa, MSLP and TPW.

Jet stream 10 July 2015

Jet Stream 10th July 2015

Blocking Highs interfering with the Polar Jet Stream at NH on 14th Oct 2015

Blocking Highs interfering with the Polar Jet Stream at NH on 14th Oct 2015

Blocking patterns 21 Jan 2016 By Diego Fdez-Sevilla

Blocking Highs interfering with the Polar Jet Stream at NH on 21st Jan 2016. Data NOAA NCEP/GFS. Graphics from Nullschool.

Another feature which we can see, persistent in time, generating a blocking pattern against tropical Jet Streams is the area over the Amazonian forest. I have  already discussed in previous publications how much relevant biological productivity is in atmospheric circulation and processes through several direct and indirect mechanisms. From proactive substances (gaseous and aerosols) released into the air to the thermodynamic effects from land cover and indirect effects on soil weathering. (see category Biological Productivity)

Biological productivity amazonia atmmospheric circulation DiegoFdezSevilla

Ultimately I have discussed global patterns in atmospheric circulation and purpose the origins from the events seen such as blocking patterns and water vapour circulation. Weather events might change in intensity and frequency due to alterations in SST like El Niño. However, the location of those weather events, their type and their intensity (in precipitation and winds) seems to keep confirming the prevalence of patterns appearing before the positive sign seen in the ENSO in 2015.

The reason behind such behaviour has been part of a theoretical proposal in 2014 and many publications after in this blog. The verification for the validity of this theory relies entirely on the type of atmospheric events happening since it addresses present and near future scenarios.

The presence of the storm Alex hovering over the Atlantic for over a week in the middle of January, the tropical storm Pali reaching the equator, rain reaching Arctic latitudes and floods instead of snow in UK and Sweden in December suggest that the approach followed in this theory is able to unify all events in a single principle. The atmosphere has reached a tipping point in absorbing energy at mid latitudes. The constant contact of warm masses of air with those from polar latitudes has weared off the strength of the Polar Jet Stream. That has allowed the atmosphere to spread the energy carried by water vapour from mid latitudes into northern latitudes, being able of holding more energy than before since it is not dissipated into their surroundings. Such scenario creates the possibility of watching lows moving large distances, atmospheric water vapour rivers crossing Oceans and Highs and Lows fixed in position. Once a local system finds a location with the conditions to dissipate its energy, either it collapses and releases its vast amount of energy or fade away into latitudes less energised.

I believe that such scenario featuring an enhanced thermal conductivity across latitudes has induced to open a corridor through the Arctic connecting Atlantic and Pacific basins. See more here.

For further discussion over the interpretation of this pattern please look at other previous publications.

Since October 2013 I have been studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.

Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at publications addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed.

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About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Citing This Site "Title", published online "Month"+"Year", retrieved on "Month""Day", "Year" from http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! DOIs can be generated on demand by request by email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com for those publications missing at the ResearchGate profile vinculated with this project. Author´s profile: Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my previous work as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After couple of years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, I find myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my research. In the present competitive scenario, instead of just moving my cv and wait for my next opportunity to arrive, I have decided to invest also my energy and time in opening my own line of research showing what I am capable of. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this blog has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my work and the intellectual rights represented by the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in this line of research. Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome. In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2017, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2017. Filling in or Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/
This entry was posted in Aerobiology, Biological productivity, Energy Balance, Environmental Resilience, Extreme climatic events, Filling in, Influence of Continentality, Inland Water Bodies and Water Cycle, Polar vortex and Jet Stream and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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