North American Weather. Old News, Same News? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)
(Updated 21st Jan 2016)
The pattern shown last year by the formation of the storm Juno seems to repeat this year also. Now, 20th Jan 2016, I believe that the present situation resembles same atmospheric configuration, following the same conditions, steps and location to as 24-25-26 Jan 2015, previous Juno, raising way high the probabilities to see another “Juno” in this 2016 Jan 22-24 and even just few days after on Jan 27-28.
Why do I say this?
The following images show how Juno looked based on the graphic representation of atmospheric variables Pressure, Temp and TPW with wind direction at 850 hPa.
Here the situation for the same area and variables during the days 18th, 19th and 20th of January 2016.
Thanks to NASA we can see the atmospheric situation over North American continent the 20th Jan 2016 in the following image from satellite Modis/Terra .
The 20th of January 2016 the 3d Graphical representation for the MSLP shows the following image
The 21st of January 2016 the 3d Graphical representation for the MSLP shows the low deepening towards the east of EEUU:
The following images show the forecast made the day 20th January for the following days 21st, 22nd and 23rd based on NCEP/GFS model. The Low moving towards the Eastern side of North America is expected to deepen in the following days.
If we compare the current state of the atmosphere with what it looked last year through the days previous Juno the 27th January 2015 we can see the similarities which raise high the probabilities of seeing a similar weather event as Juno in the next days 23rd-24th Jan 2016 and even on the 27-28 Jan 2016.
The following animation shows the forecast given by the GFS model from the 20th January 2016:
The comparison between American and the European models agree over the situation for the 23rd of January 2016 over the East coast of North America, H500 & SLP:
And for the 28th January 2016
NASA has recently published an article looking into the current atmospheric conditions from satellite.
A 21 second animation of infrared and visible imagery from NOAA’s GOES-East satellite from Jan. 19 to 21 shows the movement one system that moved across the southern U.S. on Jan. 20 followed by a second storm system that is expected to bring the powerful winter storm to the Mid-Atlantic. Credits: NASA/NOAA GOES Project
Some patterns in atmospheric circulation have been repeating since at least 2013 when I started to look into atmospheric dynamics, in both basins, Pacific and Atlantic.
The storm we see this days 21-23 Jan 2016 named Jonas, shares origin, pathway, shape and behaviour with the one we saw last year 2015 over the same period of the year and location, called Juno. More recently, we have also seen similar weather events happening in the Western Europe during December 2015 with floods affecting large areas due to high quantities of rain.
From my research I have observed a pattern in the Pacific circulation which keeps bringing low pressures from the low latitudinal western side into the high latitudinal east side.
Once there, the Polar Jet Stream drags low pressures, like drops, across the North American continent into the Atlantic. If they meet “warm and wet” currents from the Gulf of Mexico coming northwards in the EEUU, or with warm and wet masses of air in the Mediterranean sea, the mixture becomes energised in a localised space generating strong discharges in the form of Wind and precipitation.
Atmospheric Blocking patterns have been seen since 2013 and are still in place with Highs over California and at the entrance of the Mediterranean sea.
Another feature which we can see, persistent in time, generating a blocking pattern against tropical Jet Streams is the area over the Amazonian forest. I have already discussed in previous publications how much relevant biological productivity is in atmospheric circulation and processes through several direct and indirect mechanisms. From proactive substances (gaseous and aerosols) released into the air to the thermodynamic effects from land cover and indirect effects on soil weathering. (see category Biological Productivity)
Ultimately I have discussed global patterns in atmospheric circulation and purpose the origins from the events seen such as blocking patterns and water vapour circulation. Weather events might change in intensity and frequency due to alterations in SST like El Niño. However, the location of those weather events, their type and their intensity (in precipitation and winds) seems to keep confirming the prevalence of patterns appearing before the positive sign seen in the ENSO in 2015.
The reason behind such behaviour has been part of a theoretical proposal in 2014 and many publications after in this blog. The verification for the validity of this theory relies entirely on the type of atmospheric events happening since it addresses present and near future scenarios.
The presence of the storm Alex hovering over the Atlantic for over a week in the middle of January, the tropical storm Pali reaching the equator, rain reaching Arctic latitudes and floods instead of snow in UK and Sweden in December suggest that the approach followed in this theory is able to unify all events in a single principle. The atmosphere has reached a tipping point in absorbing energy at mid latitudes. The constant contact of warm masses of air with those from polar latitudes has weared off the strength of the Polar Jet Stream. That has allowed the atmosphere to spread the energy carried by water vapour from mid latitudes into northern latitudes, being able of holding more energy than before since it is not dissipated into their surroundings. Such scenario creates the possibility of watching lows moving large distances, atmospheric water vapour rivers crossing Oceans and Highs and Lows fixed in position. Once a local system finds a location with the conditions to dissipate its energy, either it collapses and releases its vast amount of energy or fade away into latitudes less energised.
I believe that such scenario featuring an enhanced thermal conductivity across latitudes has induced to open a corridor through the Arctic connecting Atlantic and Pacific basins. See more here.
For further discussion over the interpretation of this pattern please look at other previous publications.
Since October 2013 I have been studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.
Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at publications addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed.
- New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on October 21, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-k3
- Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on November 14, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-mt
- Gathering data to make visible the invisible (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on December 22, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-pN
- State of the Polar Vortex. Broken? From 29 Nov 2014 to 5th Jan 2015 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla). Posted on November 29, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-o7
- Probability in the atmospheric circulation dictating the Weather (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on January 15, 2015. http://wp.me/p403AM-rm
- Meteorological Outlook Feb 2015 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on February 7, 2015. http://wp.me/p403AM-sU
- Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Posted on February 10, 2015. http://wp.me/p403AM-to
- Matching Features Between Land Surface and Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 23, 2015
- Drops of Weather. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 7, 2015
- Steering climate´s course (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 27, 2015
- Climate. Looking at the forest for the trees (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 9, 2015
- Matching Features Between Land Surface and Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 23, 2015
- Domesticating Nature. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 7, 2015
- A roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 14, 2015
- Talking about climate (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 12, 2015
- News from an Ecosystem (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 20, 2015
- In climate it is becoming Less probable to not have a High probability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 29, 2015
- Drinking from the source (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 5, 2015
- Communication takes more than just publishing thoughts. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 9, 2015
- Extreme climatic events, implications for projections of species distributions and ecosystem structure (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 18, 2015
- The scope of Environmental Science and scientific thought. From Thought-driven to Data-driven, from Critical Thinking to Data Management. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 26, 2015
- Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Drift. Are we there yet? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 2, 2015
- Lateral thinking. From Micro to Macro (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 4, 2015
- Something for the curious minds. Climate and Streamlines (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 17, 2015
- Solar Activity and Human Activity, Settling Their Environmental Liability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 24, 2015
- Atmospheric composition and thermal conductivity? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)August 6, 2015
- Latitudinal barriers and typhoons (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)August 13, 2015
- The Earth is Ticking (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)August 20, 2015
- What if, the relevant bit lies hidden on identifying the pattern behind similarities instead of trying to match anomalies? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)September 3, 2015
- A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla).September 8, 2015
- Sensing Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)September 22, 2015
- InFormAtion. The “Act” of “Giving Form” to “Knowledge” (by Diego fdez-Sevilla)September 30, 2015
- Arctic Intake of Water Vapour (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 7, 2015
- SST Anomalies and Heat Waves. Are They Not All Just Heat Displacements? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 16, 2015
- Discussing Climatic Teleconnections. Follow Up On My Previous Research (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 21, 2015
- Follow-up on Arctic circulation 30 Oct 2015 ( by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) October 30, 2015
- There is Ice or Frost In Antarctica? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) November 5, 2015
- Starts Raining Drops of Winter at Mid-Latitudes. The new Autumn? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) November 10, 2015
- Press release. Ask NASA (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) November 12, 2015
- Following the Behaviour of the Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) November 19, 2015
- What Is Wrong With The Concept “Bio”? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) November 26, 2015
- Energy. Looking For Sources of Something We Waste. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) December 3, 2015
- SOILS. The Skeleton Holding The Muscle On Our Ecosystems (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) December 9, 2015
- Could It Be El Niño The New “Wolf” Coming? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) December 11, 2015
- Climate and weather December 2015. Another Polar Vortex another Heat Wave? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) December 18, 2015
- New insides on old concepts (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) December 23, 2015
- Atmospheric Dynamics And Shapes (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) January 13, 2016
- European weather. Old News, Same News? by Diego Fdez-Sevilla January 15, 2016