Autumn 2018. Seasonality Under a New Climatic Scenario. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.


Autumn 2018. Seasonality Under a New Climatic Scenario. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.

Seasonality Under a Global Pattern of Atmospheric Circulation.

Conditions of SST, IR and 2m Temp Anom 17 Oct 2018

Latest related analysis:

By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.CV english and españolResumeInterdisciplinary Skills applied in the line of research presented.- Index for all analyses published. – Shares and Feedback at LinkedIn


There is something about the rotation of cold masses around the warm anomalies at the Arctic which is a matter of concern in the present and near developments. There are threats in circulations invisible with the satellite images and radars. The developments at the ENSO region are the result of a condition being built based on drivers we are still discussing. The Arctic circulations is being disrupted constantly by mid-latitudinal intrusions. This is generating convective motion to drive circulation in altitude and latitude. And the interaction between this two spacial dimensions is affecting weather events at lower latitudes. Models do not see well the interaction between displacements across levels in altitude, with those horizontally. Actually, due to the differences in thermal contrast and heat transference properties between earth surface and above troposphere, weather developments always behave beyond considerations based on 2D. A limitation worth to keep in mind.

The following content in this publication apply references to previous analyses and current dynamics to contextualise and discuss this assessment. Beginning with the following article discussing the bias incorporated by applying different perspectives in the interpretation of the information available from satellites to numerical data:

August 12, 2016 Ups and Downs on Climatic Assessments. A Matter of Multiple Perspectives from the Same Point of View (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)Researchgate  DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.31687.60320

Seasonality

The transition between seasons has increased in instability. I would like to share previous analyses from my line of research to add more perspectives to the publication shared by the EU Hub:

Forecasting wheat yields under extreme weather conditions

https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/science-update/forecasting-wheat-yields-under-extreme-weather-conditions

A JRC article published in Scientific Reportstoday assesses the quality of wheat forecasts during years with extremely low or high yields, and calls for improvements based on near real-time data fusion

(Thanks  Antony. For the update. )

I hope you find useful my work.

Follow-up on previous analyses. Full index at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com

Forecasts For Ecosystems (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) ReasearchGateDOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36832.17925 Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. 2016.

https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/2016/02/25/forecasts-for-ecosystems-by-diego-fdez-sevilla/

More analyses related:

November 10, 2015 Starts Raining Drops of Winter at Mid-Latitudes. The new Autumn? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.15341.69601
March 3, 2016 Seasonality Spring 2016. Continuous follow-up on my previous research assessing atmospheric dynamics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2833.8968
September 14, 2016 Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.19874.63684
October 27, 2016 Autumn and the NH Polar Jet Stream (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25290.0608
December 17, 2016 Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20129.81760
June 23, 2017 “Seasonal Outlook. June 2017 (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25428.91528
June 29, 2018 Seasonal Transitions under a New Climatic Scenario. by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18385.22881
October 5, 2018 A New Pattern in Atmospheric Circulation drives towards an “unpredictable” New Climatic Scenario (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Available in pdf with DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.31673.62567

Severe weather is affecting simultaneously Australia, EEUU and Europe with strong convective storms, raining and lightning.

February 10, 2015 Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. ResearchgateDOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1975.7602/1
October 16, 2015 SST Anomalies and Heat Waves. Are They Not All Just Heat Displacements? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.23741.05608
May 30, 2016 When Temperature Becomes Something Else (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.12586.82888
October 9, 2017 Statistical Significance and The Scary Side of Being Mild (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.21934.61767
April 19, 2018 Climate, Weather and Energy. Using a Climatic Regime to explain Weather Events by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Research DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.27923.58406

Contrasting these analyses with current developments should help to evaluate the validity of the conclusions offered.

Follow-up on previous Analyses:

(follow links at the titles to access imagery and analyses in full)

The possibility of facing a weakening Jet Stream due to a decrease in the Thermal contrast between the Subtropical and Polar atmospheric regions has created scenarios in which the variations in meteorological conditions for a particular location can come without a transition. One week is freezing cold and the next pretty warm. How can that happen?

The large north-south waves in the jet stream (Rossby waves) are occurring more frequently and may be increasing in amplitude. Larger waves can cause cool air to be pushed toward the equator when the waves dip to low latitudes, and warm air to be pushed toward the poles when the waves swing back. For areas on the ground below these waves, that translates into wild and unseasonable temperature extremes, sometimes called “weather whiplash.”

Such scenario can be seen nowadays when we look at the graphic representations created to simulate the prediction for the Western European meteorological conditions in the period between the 3th of March and the 14th of March 2015.

Here I have created a video with the sequence of images generated for this period so you can appreciate the forecast describing the behaviour of the phase/limit where both masses of air get in contact and how it looks like a fluid releasing “drops of weather”.

The implications raising from such type of atmospheric behaviour are yet to be fully understood. To begin with, the possibility of having sudden intrusions of masses of air inducing extreme changes in meteorological variables might affect the life cycle of the biota since the most of it, plants and animals, follows changes on Temp and Humidity suffering behavioural, hormonal and physiological alterations. Also it must be considered the rapid respond to those variables from species with a quick metabolism. Many of which, insects and fungi, might suffer blooming rates of growth coinciding with a vulnerable stage in the development of other species like crops and wild plants. This scenario opens questions which I believe are worthy to be included in a debate about “the possibility of its increasing frequency in the near future”, also discussed in previous posts  (UPGRADED 11 March2015) Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla.)

The wobbliness of the North Hemispheric Polar Jet Stream made the news in 2013/14 as the result of a broken Polar Vortex, dropping masses of cold air at mid-latitudes, bringing winter weather all along their paths. In 2014/15 the Jet Stream kept wobbling, however this time, without a persistent Polar Vortex broken. I called them drops of weather and discussed the significance of their formation and the implications.

We are at the transition from Summer to Winter 2015/16. At the Iberian peninsula, even at Canary Islands and through the Mediterranean sea, we have started to see such drops of weather to appear once again. The sequence between cold and warm periods is creating wide contrasts in temperature. It seems that it is starting to rain drops of winter and that this must be the new Autumn to come.

I believe that the most visual representation of having the atmosphere increasing its thermal conductivity would be seen throughout the wobbling state of the Polar Jet Stream.

Previous assessments in this blog over the North hemisphere have discussed dynamics which seem to describe a process in expansion from mid-latitudes. With this process there has been also a discussion over the associated changes in seasonality.

Those atmospheric dynamics seem to keep happening describing a similar pattern. Heat moves up in latitude, as seen through Europe, generating the highest records in the last years, with and without El Niño conditions.

I understand climate drift as the deviation from equilibrium of the conditions allowing the perpetuation of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in a micro and macro ecosystem. This situation can be due to changes in any component of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes can be either a change in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality or rates in the flows of energy pre-established OR/AND the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components/forces and energy sinks or sources in any part of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance.

Based on such approach, I have developed a line of research which foresee episodes linked with the reduction of contrasts in atmospheric energy pools at different locations in altitude and latitude. Such scenario would come from the incorporation of energy in the atmosphere through water vapour thanks to positive feedbacks from GHGs and Aerosols acting as “Velcro”. Also land-use plays a role by the synergistic interactions existent between soil conditions, land cover and biotic processes interacting with albedo, water cycles and biotic components involved in cloud formation.

All those processes combined drive wind shears, which in turn dominate atmospheric circulation in altitude, longitude and latitude.

I believe that potentially, the reduction in the directionality and stall of wind shear at stratospheric levels comes from a dynamic being built from the bottom up. As I believe it has been the condition of the Polar Vortex over the North Pole in the recent years.

This summer 2016 has seen a constant incorporation of warm masses of air in altitude over India. My assessments point to concluding that the mixing ratio between masses of air being warmed up at equatorial and mid-latitudes has increased altering the stratification of the atmosphere in its 3 dimensions.

As a result, some atmospheric events become more erratic in their behaviour and seasons are dominated by localised masses of air instead of the Solar angle of radiation linked with the position and tilt of the Earth.

The major indication of this scenario would be seen in the behaviour of the North Polar Jet Stream. This feature is the one with more visual impact representing the stratification of the atmosphere in latitude isolating cold masses of air in the Arctic circulation from those in Mid Latitudes. Its wobbly behaviour in the recent years indicates a reduction in the thermal contrast between Arctic circulation and Mid-Latitudes. But furthermore, not only the configuration of the North Polar jet Stream has lost its rigid conditions in latitude, but also in altitude suffering the influence of cyclonic events reaching as high as 250 hPa.

“My assessments point to conclude that the mixing ratio between masses of air being warmed up at equatorial and mid-latitudes has increased altering the stratification of the atmosphere in its 3 dimensions.

As a result, some atmospheric events become more erratic in their behaviour and seasons are dominated by localised masses of air instead of the Solar angle of radiation linked with the position and tilt of the Earth.”

The pattern described by the atmospheric dynamics assessed through the line of research published in this blog foresees abrupt changes in temperature, in short periods of time, due to the enhanced mobility of masses of air through the atmosphere.

That would explain why locations in Northern latitudes might see warmer conditions than those in the south. Or even high contrasts between locations in the same latitude between west and east as we have seen at North America.

Based on what it has been discussed in previous assessments over recent atmospheric developments the mixing ratio is increasing and, even though I believe that it is not going to follow the same pattern through time, at the moment, it seems foreseeable.

 

Spring- Autumn 2018

The implications over the weather conditions around the NH are enough to affect the transitions between seasons with a repetitions of the patterns seen in atmospheric circulation through Spring and Autumn (see following images and an extended discussion at: Seasonal Transitions under a New Climatic Scenario. by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18385.22881 June 29, 2018):

22 Oct 2018

18 Oct 2018

10 April 2018

This atmospheric pattern of instability, the weather events associated and the Warm Anomalies at high Latitudes, are less related with Solar radiation as the years pass forward (more discussion at Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20129.81760 December 17, 2016)

Discussion

The line of research presented by Diego Fdez-Sevilla (PhD) in this blog and researchgate since 2013 and throughout more than 200 analyses, has reached conclusions which differ from mainstream theories addressing the “drivers” and “implications” from such warming at high latitudes.

The current line of research studies and discusses current developments throughout publications from 2013 to date. In the analyses presented I offer points of view unifying in a single argument the behaviour of drivers such as ENSO, Arctic Amplification and Polar Vortex configuration. That is, an increase in the atmospheric energetic pool in the form of free state is fuelling a mixing dynamic (Convective motion) responsible for creating fluctuations in temperature patterns, and yet, denoting a constant increase in kinetic displayments.

The increasing warming over mid-latitudes is using water vapour as the carrier of energy incorporating it over the whole atmosphere and into Arctic latitudes. Such mechanism will increase the energy pool at the Arctic, what in other words can be seen as an increase in temperature and processes of SSW affecting the POLAR Vortex configuration.

Furthermore, the spread of energy contained by water vapour also affects the resilience shown by Lows and Highs to dissipate their energy at lower latitudes and affects developments at the ITCZ zone and equatorial wind shear at the Eq. Pacific.

A pattern of change in the atmosphere dynamics beyond considering global warming or cooling. That is, global mixing.

September 14, 2016 Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.19874.63684

Throughout the line of research presented several animations have addressed the arguments offered supporting with a visual aid the patterns addressed.

drops-of-weather-sept-2016-diegto-fdez-sevilla-phd

In my assessments I have defended that the increase in the energy pool at mid-latitudes would ultimately create an scenario with an overcharged atmosphere. That would reduce the contrasts with which to create and maintain stability in the structure required to condense energy in singular events, like hurricanes. Giving more relevance to the single contrast between Ocean/continental masses. However, the opening of the Arctic circulation through a weak Jet Stream would reduce the pressure in the containment absorbing the condensation of energy at mid-latitudes, expanding into a new volume.

Accordingly, hadley circulation gets affected (see also) generating new patterns of turbulence at the ITCZ as well as it gets influenced Arctic mixing zones with lower latitudes.

In this scenario TCs are generated under an increase in the mixing ratio of an unstable atmospheric circulation dominated by kinetic energy transferred by water vapour thanks to GHGs, and immersed in an overcharged atmosphere with no place where to diffuse its energy, becoming resilient as long as they stay over the ocean. So they endure like a piece of an ice rock in cold water.

About Sea Surface Temperatures, my assessments take SST as subsequent conditions driven by wind shear. So the interaction between masses of air in circulation allows or inhibits SST developments. Once the scenario is built on SST this becomes a “battle field” conditioning the subsequent interaction between the following masses of air and the characteristics of the “grounds” where the game will be played (sort of speak). Like the effect of the ice conditions in an ice hockey match.

El Niño is an event which happens in a very small portion of the Earth, it is related to the temperature of a very thin layer of the Ocean in depth (e.g.: coralreefwatch.noaa.gov uses SSTs at “one meter” depth). A small percentage of the area occupied by the whole Oceanic masses, and even smaller when it is integrated in the multidimensional space combining Ocean and Atmosphere. It is kind of intriguing to think why it has been so easy to conclude that such small portion of the entire system is driving it as a whole. It is like considering that the flowering of plants drives the seasons. Similarly it could be said about using SST at the Arctic to justify altogether; the lack of ice, warmer temperatures at tropospheric level and even at stratospheric level. There is not enough energy in the SST of such small area as it is the Arctic to justify all those convective dynamics.

In the present study I have been very persistent trying to highlight how much relevance it is given to a small area in size and depth driving global circulation as it is the SST at the Eq Pacific while an area of the same size and even more depth could be identified in the Amazon or by the change suffered in Land cover by agriculture at global scale.

We have to consider that SST are measured in the 5 or less m of the Ocean meanwhile Forests can occupy more than 15 meters in depth. And both are sources of the latent heat carried out in the atmosphere which fuels convective dynamics.

Total Precipitable Water. 850 hPa. 22 Dec 2014. From publication Biological Productivity, Amazonia and Atmospheric Circulation. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Posted on In Pdf at Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.10771.99363.

In images the research here presented would look like:


Differences from Mainstream

Since 2002 I have performed research over the Atmospheric Dynamics interacting with the biota in the field of Aerobiology (PhD studying atmospheric conditions affecting the efficiency of pollen sampling and the aerodynamic behaviour of pollen. Conclusions here. Article on anthropogenic forcing over plants performance here).

In Oct 2013 I focused my attention over climatic dynamics.

The assessments presented in this line of research are not weather reports but interpretations over emerging dynamics, offering arguments and discussion addressing the lack of understanding acknowledged in academia in order to identify mechanisms giving sense to data.

In  AUGUST 2014, Cohen et al, published a review over the state of knowledge on Climatic Assessments (DOI:10.1038/NGEO2234) The final remark stated that: “other studies on related topics, especially other observational studies, share some of the same shortcomings: lack of statistical significance, causality unclear, incomplete mechanistic understanding, and so on”)

Based on my analyses, in Oct 2014 I published what I believe to be a valid theory explaining current developments in atmospheric dynamics.

In the analyses presented I offer points of view unifying in a single argument the behaviour of drivers such as ENSO, Arctic Amplification and Polar Vortex configuration.

That is, an increase in the atmospheric energetic pool in the form of free state is fuelling a mixing dynamic (Convective motion) responsible for creating fluctuations in temperature patterns, and yet, denoting a constant increase in kinetic displayments. The increasing warming over mid-latitudes is using water vapour as the carrier of energy incorporating it over the whole atmosphere and into Arctic latitudes. Such mechanism will increase the energy pool at the Arctic, what in other words can be seen as an increase in temperature and processes of SSW affecting the POLAR Vortex configuration. Furthermore, the spread of energy contained by water vapour also affects the resilience shown by Lows and Highs to dissipate their energy at lower latitudes and affects developments at the ITCZ zone and equatorial wind shear at the Eq. Pacific. A pattern of change in the atmosphere dynamics beyond considering global warming or cooling. That is, global mixing.

In the following sections I want to point out some specific analyses shared previously addressing these drivers. The aim for this is to offer the opportunity to read those and contrast their validity against current developments and against the theories based on the mentioned drivers. In the next sections there are extracts from previous publications extending the discussion as part of the validation of previous analyses against current developments.

In scientific research, arguments increase their value the less they need to be modified throughout time in order to fit with the developments unfold after their proposal. For this reason, in the present line of research I have applied a constant follow-up re-sharing analyses published in previous years in order to assess the validity of the conclusions raised based on those in contrast with the developments seen afterwards:

  • Some theories like “Arctic Amplification” postulates that such process is resultant of local conditions pointing to anomalous Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) as the driver behind this warming. This theory also postulates that such anomalous warming in the Arctic latitudes generates an impact over Mid latitudinal Circulation.

Some example of the analyses offered in contrast with this theory can be found following the links to the following publications:

October 21, 2014 New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4859.3440
November 17, 2016 Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.24688.35848
December 17, 2016 Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20129.81760
February 28, 2018 Arctic Warming as a Result of Convective Forcing by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD  Pdf at ResearchGate DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.34551.73125

Conditions of Temp at 2m and Ice Thickness and Ice Cover Oct 2018

  • Other theory looks at the state of the Polar Vortex as the one driving tropospheric circulation. Accordingly to this theory, when the NH Polar Vortex breaks the NH Mid-latitudinal circulation gets affected by cold snaps.

Some example of the analyses offered in contrast with this theory can be found following the links to the following publications:

March 14, 2014 The breakdown of the Polar Vortex. It happened before so, What would follow? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
October 7, 2014 What type of Polar vortex configuration can we expect for this winter? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
November 14, 2014 Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2500.0488
November 22, 2014 The Polar Vortex breaks again in the North Hemisphere 22 Nov 2014. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
November 29, 2014 (Updated 5/Jan/2015) State of the Polar Vortex. Broken? 29/Nov/14 – 5th/Jan/15 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
December 18, 2015 Climate and weather December 2015. Another Polar Vortex another Heat Wave? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)Researchgate DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.19966.48968
February 4, 2016 (updated 11-18 Feb2016) Polar Vortex, Old News, Same News? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25779.12328
October 25, 2016 Another Heat Wave Another Polar Vortex II … Broken (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.13418.93124

Atmospheric conditions at Stratospheric level 10hPa and 70 hPa- 17 Oct 2018:

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html 70 hPa geopotential(dam’) and temperature(°C) over the northern hemisphere from 30°N – 90°N on October 17 2018 12 UTC. The unit of the geopotential is 10 geopotential standard meter (10 m’ = 1 dam’ = 98.0665 m2 s-2 = 98.0665 J kg-1). Data: ECMWF via DWD.

10 hPa geopotential(dam’) and temperature(°C) over the northern hemisphere from 30°N – 90°N on October 17 2018 12 UTC. The unit of the geopotential is 10 geopotential standard meter (10 m’ = 1 dam’ = 98.0665 m2 s-2 = 98.0665 J kg-1). Data: ECMWF via DWD.

  • Another theory is based on seeing the anomalous warming at the East Pacific Equator Sea Temperatures – ENSO (El Niño), as the driver dominating atmospheric circulation.

Some example of the analyses offered in contrast with this theory can be found following the links to the following publications:

December 11, 2015 Could It Be El Niño The New “Wolf” Coming? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.3238.2801
March 22, 2016 Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)  Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1968.5521
March 23, 2017 Final Review in Progress. March 2017. From ENSO to Scientific Thinking by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.33915.82726
June 23, 2017 “Seasonal Outlook. June 2017 (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25428.91528

Study Timeline and Overall Conclusions

The current line of research is intended to understand current developments, all as part of a global pattern being developed in real time and further discussed throughout publications from 2013 to date. In the line presented in this blog and researchgate since 2013, I have offered an alternative new theory which addresses the unanswered questions left by the previous theories.

That is, an increase in the atmospheric energetic pool in the form of free state is fuelling a mixing dynamic (Convective motion) responsible for creating fluctuations in temperature patterns, and yet, denoting a constant increase in kinetic displayments.

My theory (ref Oct 21, 2014, and ref Feb 2, 2015) is that the increasing warming over mid-latitudes is using water vapour as the carrier of energy incorporating it over the whole atmosphere and into Arctic latitudes.Such mechanism will increase the energy pool at the Arctic, what in other words can be seen as an increase in temperature, but also affects the resilience shown by Lows and Highs to dissipate their energy at lower latitudes.

All being a process driving the behaviour of the ENSO, Arctic dynamics and the POLAR Vortex configuration.

The main conclusion reached has been to face a pattern of change in the structure of the atmosphere and its dynamics due to an increase in atmospheric mixing, in altitude, and latitude with Arctic circulation. A new approach which goes beyond considering the only options of global warming or cooling. That is, global mixing.

An increase in the amount of energy being in “free” state means that “kinetic processes” (instability) will increasingly dominate thermodynamic processes, inducing a transition in our Seasonal and Climatic regimes from being driven by Orbital Positioning to be driven by more erratic Kinetic processes.

Conditions of SST, IR and 2m Temp Anom 17 Oct 2018

Latest related analysis:

Following the current line of study we are witnessing the evolution of a climatic regime reacting to pressures defining a calendar in a chain reaction following phases.

We are in the fourth phase “heat into motion”, before the next.

Latest analysis related:

Some related analyses

October 21, 2014 New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4859.3440
November 14, 2014 Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2500.0488
February 10, 2015 Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. ResearchgateDOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1975.7602/1
October 21, 2015 Discussing Climatic Teleconnections. Follow Up On My Previous Research (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2962.7605
March 22, 2016 Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)  Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1968.5521
November 17, 2016 Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Researchgate:  DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.24688.35848
February 28, 2018 Arctic Warming as a Result of Convective Forcing by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD  Pdf at ResearchGate DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.34551.73125

Arctic

The drainage of the “Arctic cold reservoir” is a process which started with a timid seasonal waving on the Polar Jet Stream. This process has become more extreme by the years, beginning to show as the collapse of a wall under the pressure on a tide gaining strength. Convective forcing from mid latitudes is invading the north pole forcing the displacement of cold masses into foreign territories. What began as a process marked by seasonal pulses, this year 2018 is showing to maintain momentum throughout seasons.

The anomalous warming at the Arctic has been discussed in the line of research presented already in 2015 and the most complete analysis over the situation that I can offer about this publication was an analysis which I published in 2016 (which includes the previous one from 2015). And more recently with a follow-up in 2018. So I want to offer my analyses for any one interested in the discussion existent over the Arctic dynamics and their significance in the global situation. Even though these are not articles in peered reviewed journals, these analyses have not received arguments invalidating their coherence and significance  and are part of the reality surrounding the activity of research beyond academia when PhDs like me keep offering their research without the support from an institution. So it is up to you to judge their value or ask whom you trust about it.

Global Circulation Follow-Up

News reports on weather events are based on describing new developments. Therefore, for every event, new arguments are developed to describe the new that justifies making it to the news.

In scientific research, arguments increase their value the less they need to be modified throughout time in order to fit with the developments unfold after their proposal. For this reason, in the present line of research I have applied a constant follow-up re-sharing analyses published in previous years in order to assess the validity of the conclusions raised based on those in contrast with the developments seen afterwards.

In 2014 the line of research defined by the assessments published in this blog could not be verified by peer review articles due to the absence of them applying similar approach. That was confirmed by direct communication with Prof Jennifer Francis by email (in full here).

Therefore, since the statements presented have not yet been verified by peer-reviewed research, the original and pioneer nature of the line of research presented in this blog can only rely on real time developments through follow-ups in order to evaluate the veracity of the assessments published and the conclusions and interpretation offered.

In that way, I have published analyses over atmospheric dynamics as part of the follow-up required. You can find those in the timeline page using ctrl+F and the word “follow-up”.

This strategy aims to allow for an open and multidisciplinary review over the validity of the assessment presented in this blog by comparison with the recurrent repetition of patterns unfolding in real time.

Also with the publications in this blog I have re-published previous publications at LinkeIn following such strategy in order to reach an audience as broad as possible.

This post links to the results from the line of research that I have presented from my analysis from 2016 in order to contrast its validity with the current situation. Are my conclusions accurate? I also want to invite Paul Newman for feedback based on the involvement of higher levels of the atmopshere in my analysis. Global Mixing in Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.) DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.21255.60320 From my line of research I am convinced on that Arctic perturbations at the Atlantic basin (warm intrusions over the Arctic and cold at mid-latitudes) are responsible for the genesis of Tropical Systems due to alterations over the ITCZ. From there, the behaviour and paths followed by them would also be driven by more Arctic perturbations (combination of warm intrusions at the North Pacific and North Atlantic and cold at lower latitudes) inducing changes in pressure located all around their path, in front and behind their movement. https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6456815061011877888

Conclusions on:

Weather, Climate, Energy, Environment and Man


The question  driving the whole debate on Climatic Deviations from “a Normal”, or Climatic Drift, focus most of the methodologies on temperature.

However I have followed a different approach in my analyses looking at Gradients of Energy in all its forms. That is why in 2014 I offered my thoughts as a theory of practical applications.

Energy fuels the work done by warm masses of air displacing colder masses of air in their path. That increases mixing patterns generating anomalies in temperature.

Behind an increase in the amount of work carried out by masses of air there is an increase in the energy fuelling such dynamics. Energy can only be transferred, not created or destroyed. So more work means more energy in circulation. More energy in circulation can only be sustained by a substance carrying it. Either if we consider that the energy driving anomalies comes from the Sun or from the Oceans, the carrier has to be in the atmosphere in order for the energy to produce work. And the body loosing heat cools down.

E.g. A corridor of wind over the Arctic is triggered by a conversion of Temperature into work, convection and advection, which are the result of mixing masses of air. As I have published in previous analyses, such Trans-Arctic connection between Atlantic and Pacific Basins is part of a pattern increasing the mixing ratio between masses of air otherwise separated by thermal compartmentalization, like the Polar Jet Stream. An increase in the dispersion of energetic forms have different outcomes, one of which it would be a temporary reduction in the average temperature resultant for the mixing between Cold (Arctic) and warm (Mid-Latitude) masses of air as well as in altitude (SSW).

Subsequently, “temperature” is less reliable than looking at “work” seen even in the “mild” events.

In the framework presented throughout the line of research published in this blog (and researchgate) it has been considered “Climate” as being defined by the amount of energy free to do work. In other words, energy free to promote weather events. Accordingly, in my research I define Climate by the amount and state of energy in circulation, and Weather by the use of this energy.

Consequently, with the definition applied for Climate and Weather, my definition of Climate Drift is:

“the deviation from equilibrium of the conditions allowing the perpetuity of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in a micro and macro ecosystem. This situation can be due to changes in any component of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes can be either a change in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality or rates in the flows of energy pre-established OR/AND the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components/forces and energy sinks or sources in any part of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance.”


This year 2018 many of the topics discussed through the line presented show to be supported by conclusions discussed throughout all the analyses presented:

  •  The ENSO is not a driver of convective forcing over the NH,
  • Convective forcing from Mid-latitudinal towards the Arctic circulation has wear off the gradients of temperature generating a strong Polar Jet Stream.
  •  Arctic warming occurs through atmospheric intrusions from Mid Latitudes,
  • The collapse of the Polar Jet Stream has opened Arctic circulation to Mid-Latitudinal intrusions allowing Trans-Arctic circulation between Pacific and Atlantic Basins.
  •  The global Temperature measured is the resultant of mixing patterns in the atmosphere,
  • Therefore an increase in mixing dynamics creates a pause in temperature raise,
  • An increase in mixing dynamics show an increase in convective forcing,
  • Convective forcing is the work resultant from an increase in atmospheric energy being incorporated in free state,
  • The incorporation and spread of energy in free state into the atmosphere is carried and released by water vapour
  • An increase of water vapour in atmospheric circulation requires an increase in the thermal capacity of the atmosphere
  • The process of enhancing the thermal capacity of the atmosphere comes by increasing the concentration of GHGs, conc of aerosols and land surface albedo.
  • Several processes carried out by human activity are linked with the previous assessment: human activity reduces the capacity of the biotic environment to fix energy from free state into inert state by reducing biochemical processing and storage (CxHxOx photosynthesis and biomass) and increases atmospheric concentrations of GHGs by releasing CO2 and H2O into the atmosphere. Also, land use and cover transformations increase albedo, industrial activities increase aerosols and the compartmentalization of water affects water cycles.
  • In a thermodynamic system the energetic pool is the sum of the amount of energy in free state capable of doing work, and the energy fixed in an inert form as part of mass. The amount of energy in free state is proportional to the amount of energy fixed in inert form as mass (E=mc2). The release of energy from its inert form increases the amount of energy in free state to do work. Energy is not created, neither destroyed. The transformation of the three phases of the environment forced by human activities, gaseous (atmosphere), liquid (water cycle) and solid (land use and cover), increases the amount of energy in free state capable of promoting all forms of work; convective forcing, strong winds, solid and liquid precipitation, lightning, dust storms, heat waves, cold displacements, and ultimately, and increase in atmospheric mixing in altitude and across latitudes.

Discussion

The analyses performed in my line of research describe a Climatic Drift, from pre-established atmospheric conditions strongly compartmentalised in Altitude and Latitude, towards a Climatic Regime characterised by an instability originated by patterns of Trans-latitudinal and Vertical mixing. An increase in atmospheric motion inducing sudden and extreme changes in atmospheric conditions generating weather events with abnormal properties for a particular location, throughout latitudes, longitudes and altitudes.

Einstein and his developments were mainly applied in physics due to the use that it was made of his work with the aim to manipulate energy in times of conflict, or to understand space. The equation is simple E=mc2. The language of physics has dominated the discussion over physical developments since then and it has been established as the logical translation of climatic developments. However, in the current times, the role of scientific understanding demands to move beyond the barriers of language, either between semantic cultural languages and between disciplines.

Being myself a Biologist involved in Atmospheric dynamics applying physics to explain such a complex subject as it is climatic evolution might seem like the tale of the child claiming that the Emperor has no clothes.

And yet, it seems to me evident that a thermodynamic system as it is our planet, can not scape from the most basic and powerful understanding of our contemporary scientific evolution. If E=MC2, and the anthropogenic activity is increasing the transformation of M into Energy in the system (from burning Mass from fossils and vegetable components, as well as by liberating other forms of energy such as gravimetric in Dams, Solar, transformation of raw materials, etc,) such transformation rate will move the balance in the thermodynamic behaviour of the whole system, and the rate of such deviation from equilibrium will be related with the speed at which the transformation rate between E/M is performed: M>(c)2

Conclusions

The main conclusion from my 4 years of researching synergistic interactions between all transformations seen over the Liquid, Gaseous and solid phases of our global Environment indicates that anthropogenic activity is forcing our environment into A System Becoming Dominated By Free Energy. (DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18509.13289)

The biotic component of our environmental system is the only one capable of interacting against thermodynamic entropy, against instability. And for as long as Human activity can not replicate such mechanisms in equilibrium with the resources consumed, it might be time to think about domesticating Human Activities instead of following the obsession for Domesticating Natural Behaviour and Geoengineer our Weather. 

Overall Conclusions

An increase in the amount of energy being in “free” state means that kinetic processes will increasingly dominate thermodynamic processes, inducing a transition in our Seasonal and Climatic regimes from being driven by Orbital Positioning to be driven by more erratic Kinetic processes.


Imagery and Methodology


Nowadays, there are many divisions between disciplines due to the isolated nature of their specific language and methodologies. I might not use the right vocabulary for all the fields which I discuss, or the right data or the right reasoning. But when nobody is able to offer a consensus over what is going on, I wonder, what is right this days?.

After leaving months, even years of time to expose my conclusions for public discussion and review, once those have no faced any criticism or arguments refuting their value, I create a pdf file and a DOI publishing them at my profile in Researchgate. In order to maintain their genuineness and legitimate innovative nature, I keep its original state so those can be compared with any copy made by any third party at any time. For your own references and review over its originality over time with respect to other publications via scientific papers and/or news reports, you can compare the publications at the blog and researchgate with the records archived:


This work is protected under Intellectual Property laws licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.)

EGU discussed open science in 2017. GDB4 – Is Open Science the way to go?”. Min 27. The currency of data and data parasites. Min 35 Creative commons license. Min 45 Data Sharing and rules of engagement. min 56 Q&A Data Citations and Credit on producing data) https://lnkd.in/e89qv_Z

I am in transition looking for new opportunities and new challenges, to join a team. At the same time that I look for job openings to incorporate my resume, I would encourage any one finding interesting any of the skills which I apply throughout my research, as well as communicator, to evaluate my profile as a candidate for your projects (Profile at Linkedin and CV english and español) email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

After performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, in 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new job. However, in such competitive scenario, instead of just moving my cv between desks waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I used it as an advantageous standing point to start and develop independent research in a blog in which I could open my own line of research completely free of external pressures or interferences. Through the whole project I have published pieces of research applying my own perspective focused on addressing relevant environmental questions.

The economic support sustaining the five years of research presented in this blog has been private based on my own capacity to generate it.

(This post is part of a more complex piece of independent research. I don´t have funding, political agenda or publishing revenues from visits. Any scientist working in disciplines related with the topics that I treat in my blog knows how to judge the contribution that my work could potentially add to the state of knowledge. Since I am in transition looking for a position in research, if you are one of those scientists, by just acknowledging any value you might see from my contribution, would not only make justice to my effort as independent researcher, but ultimately, it will help me to enhance my chances to find a position with resources to further develop my work.

I believe that the hypothesis that I have presented in previous posts in this blog (here, hereand here) could help to understand present and possible future scenarios in atmospheric circulation. However, this is an assessment based on observation which needs to be validated throughout open discussion and data gathering. So please feel free to incorporate your thoughts and comments in a constructive manner.

If you feel like sharing this post I would appreciate to have a reference about the place or platform, by private or public message, in order for me to have the opportunity to join the debate and be aware of the repercussion which might generate d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

More assessments presenting chronologically the line of research published in this blog can be accessed in the category Framework and Timeline.

About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Data policy The products processed by "Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD" are made available to the public for educational and/or scientific purposes, without any fee on the condition that you credit "Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD" as the source. Copyright notice: © Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD 2013-2019 orcid: orcid.org/0000-0001-8685-0206 and the link to its source at diegofdezsevilla.wordpress or permanent DOI found at Reearchgate. Should you write any scientific publication on the results of research activities that use Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD products as input, you shall acknowledge the Diego Fdez-Sevilla's PhD Project in the text of the publication and provide an electronic copy of the publication (d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com). If you wish to use the Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD products in advertising or in any commercial promotion, you shall acknowledge the Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Project and you must submit the layout to Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD for approval beforehand (d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com). The work here presented has no economic or institutional support. Please consider to make a donation to support the means for making sustainable the energy, time and resources required. Also any sponsorship or mentoring interested would be welcome. Intellectual Property This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! For those publications missing at the ResearchGate profile vinculated with this project DOIs can be generated on demand by request at email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com. **Author´s profile: Born in 1974. Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my work previous to 2013 as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After 12 years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, in 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my own line of research. In the current competitive scenario, in order to demonstrate my capacities instead of just moving my cv waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I decided to invest my energy and time in opening my own line of research sharing it in this blog. In March 2017 the budget reserved for this project has ended and its weekly basis time frame discontinued until new forms of economic and/or institutional support are incorporated into the project. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this platform and at LinkedIn has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my achievements and that the Intellectual Property Rights generated with the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in similar lines of research. **Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome as well as any approach exploring professional opportunities.** In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2019, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects, don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access and DOIs found at the Framework and Timeline page and ResearchGate. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2018. Filling in or/and Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/ ***
This entry was posted in Biological productivity, Energy Balance, Extreme climatic events, Filling in, Finding out, GMO's, Influence of Continentality, Polar vortex and Jet Stream, Solar activity, Water vapour and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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