The Antarctic Bubble (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)
These days it is becoming very active the discussion over the situation at Antarctica.
Some examples from Google search:
The Antarctic Bubble
Memory is something models do not apply in order to find coherence. Models either incorporate the data or not. We can apply different sets of data to offer different assessments for the same event, and by comparing those we might recall something else which comes as the missing piece which makes everything to make sense.
On Oct. 7, 2014 NASA published: “Antarctic Sea Ice Reaches New Record Maximum”
On March 31, 2015 National Geographic PUBLISHED: “Antarctica May Have Hit Highest Temperature on Record”
In order to expose my research for public review and validate its value I would like to re-publish my assessment so you can leave your opinion.
From previous post:
|November 5, 2015||There is Ice or Frost In Antarctica? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)|
My personal posture, based on my previous observations, analyses and discussions (published in this blog), is set on considering as a reality the fact of that there are dynamics in the atmosphere which point to alterations from previous stable patterns linked with climatic developments. And all the mechanisms involved in driving the forces dominating all the processes are closely interconnected with the transformation in composition and structure suffered by each component of our global ecosystem (atmosphere, ground, biological performance and water bodies) due to anthropogenic forcing.
Ultimately, my line of thinking and research has led me to consider that in order to study if the dynamics in the planet are indicating a contrast with average variations over time the best methodology should be based on considering that heat is just an expression of Energy and therefore, temperature does not resolve the question and neither the concept of Global Warming.
There is an ongoing process of adaptation in all those parts of our ecosystem being under transformation, which in total means “Global Adaptation to a Global Transformation due to a Global Changing Environment”.
Nobody denies the changes in Atmospheric composition or Land Use and Cover as well as in the Oceans and water cycles. The debate lays on how big or small is the capacity of our planet to absorb those transformations before “we” “feel” any perturbation.
The perturbations are there, but, are they perturbations from average variability or beyond average? So ultimately we need to learn to understand the language used by those perturbations that is telling us something because it seems that there is a lack in the agreement on what that language means. And yet, with such limitations considering that we are trying to understand a language that we do not dominate, mathematical modelling has become the learning school.
As I see it, a mathematical model is like a painting on a transparent canvas. The spaces not covered have a significant impact over the whole. An empty space in the real world has a different meaning, and implications, than in a mathematical model. It has very different repercussions to have a variable being 0 or false, than not having the variable playing any role. Each situation, defined by different variables, needs a different mathematical expression, but no expression can consider the repercussion of an “empty space” if it is considered in the expression. IF you paint a space as empty, it is not empty any more, so the option of being occupied by “new info” disappears.
So there is a language that we struggle to understand and that is the one behind all the perturbations that we are capable to identify in our environment (and the ones that we are not capable yet). There is also the language that it is being built in modelling but, I also feel that there is also a language that we can relate to and that it is part of our already familiar surroundings.
In a previous post I discussed atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics using a pressure cooker to point out some mechanisms being in place in our weather events and climatic development. Here in this post, and in relation with the question of how can Antarctica, the coldest part of our planet, gain Ice when the atmosphere seems to keep absorbing GHGs which in turn enhance its thermal conductivity through water vapour, I want to use a very common form of language that we encounter when we try to understand what is going on in the coldest part of our house, our freezer.
If your house, “or planet”, has a high humidity level, simply opening and closing the freezer door (polar Jet Streams) will cause some amount of frost to accumulate. The freezer has a built in heater to melt this build-up in the “Arctic specifications model”, but the “Antarctica model” does not.
One of the recent publication addressing the situation at the Antarctic pole shows the ice cover extent
A point in space can be under an enormous pressure in one instant and very low in the next one. That happens if such point in space is inside a balloon being inflated.
Thresholds are invisible to us, even from space.
Something is clear, in order to reach certain values in our ecosystems, the energy required to reach such point has to be from somewhere, and as part of a chain reaction with many other previous steps involved, with and without strong variations in the ENSO
|March 22, 2016||Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)|
We can not just be amazed by the fireworks and believe in magic.
|June 5, 2015||Climate and Data. Drinking From the Source (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)|
|October 21, 2015||Discussing Climatic Teleconnections. Follow Up On My Previous Research (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)|
|What if, the relevant bit lies hidden on identifying the pattern behind similarities instead of trying to match anomalies? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)||September 3, 2015|
There is a process behind our amusement for which our comprehension will make all the difference in assessing foreseeable consequences.
We can not be proudly standing by our capacity to bend the laws of physics throughout our technology and capacity to conquer any place on Earth and Space without considering the consequence of applying such power. That is just a basic application of the third law of Newton.
|December 23, 2015||New insides on old concepts (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)|
|May 13, 2014||Looking at the influence of continentality in atmospheric circulation. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)|
|November 17, 2016||Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)|
|June 10, 2016||The Butterfly Effect on Arctic Circulation. Peer review verification on previous assessments (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)|
This work is protected under Intellectual Property laws licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.)
As March 2017, I am looking for new opportunities and new challenges, to join a team. At the same time that I look for job openings to incorporate my resume, I would encourage any one finding interesting any of the skills which I apply throughout my research, as well as communicator, to evaluate my profile as a candidate for your projects. email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com
After performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, in 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new job. However, in such competitive scenario, instead of just moving my cv between desks waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I used it as an advantageous standing point to start and develop independent research in a blog in which I could open my own line of research completely free of external pressures or interferences. Through the whole project I have published pieces of research applying my own perspective focused on addressing relevant environmental questions.
The work which I present in my blog is just a chapter in my career. At Feb 2017, it has reached an stage in which its framework has been defined and it has been applied in follow-ups delivering the subsequent conclusions.
The level of uncertainty which I have accomplished in my assessments has reached enough accuracy to replicate real time developments to the point of compete with models sustained by corporate and administrative budgets.
The economic support sustaining the three years of research presented in this blog has been private based on my own capacity to generate it. Once the main conclusions of the project have demonstrated their value, it is time for my career to find new ways of growth and/or external sources of financial support.
Therefore, at this time Feb 2017, the generation of assessments over present developments discontinues in the absence of external financial support.
You can look at the whole project (more than 190 posts between Oct 2013 to Feb 2017) published at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com and also you will find some of those publications in my profile at ResearchGate
I am living in Spain free to relocate geographically worldwide.
Since October 2013 I have been publishing pieces of research studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.
Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License, WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in Researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.
Author’s Disclosure Declaration
For those unaware of the content offered in this blog I might have to issue a warning: Handle with care. Also with the product obtained from scientific analytical thinking there are traces of personal and professional “passion”, by-products obtained from “original and unpeered grey matter juice” originated from “independent critical thinking”. Also sometimes the packaging might be rough around the edges due to its “unfunded nature”.
4 years ago I joined a discussion which made me realise how much knowledge was settled on the past, built upon past conventions and unable to give answers about present developments in all parts of our environment. From the impact from GMOs, plastics, soils degradation, atmospheric composition, land use and cover, water cycles, … I had addressed scientifically unanswered questions before doing my PhD so I decided to give it a go and to offer my take over those gaps. It has been a pilgrimage to become aware of how much faith and fear is put on scientific publishing above raw understanding and discussion.
I do not know how far this blog will go, however, it represents the assessment of a global process and I expect that past posts will become a description of continuous present for the next years.
Altogether, the body of work which represents the line of research presented in this blog is composed by more than 190 pieces, covering data analyses and conceptual discussions. All those different discussions and assessments presented here build together a single concept. The format applied is the result of making a big effort trying to apply simplistic approaches with the aim to allow a multidisciplinary access. Since the topics treated in my publications have implications for many sectors in the academic and not academic world, with the aim of allowing my research for open review, there is also the objective of allowing access to a multisectorial and multidisciplinary audience sharing interest.
For a more profound discussion over my assessments and analyses as well as constructive feedback, please use my email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com.
My agenda is simple, I am in transition looking for either funding to grow the research published in this blog or for a job position in any field in which my assets are valued. Behind my research there is nothing more, nothing else than to showcase my capabilities doing what I like, research. I am a methodologist. I don´t look at the color of the result obtained, only at the suitability of the method and the coherence of the result. As I have said before, if I am wrong on my assessments and conclusions, it will be better for all, and my work would showcase my capabilities anyway. A CV shines the goals obtained by anyone, but by publishing here my research, I expose myself and my work to public judgement. There is a difference between being naive and raw. If you see the difference you will understand better my work and my personal position.
The aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. So any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time of at least a month from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found refuting the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.
In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com
If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will help me in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.
(This post is part of a more complex piece of independent research. I don´t have funding, political agenda or publishing revenues from visits. Any scientist working in disciplines related with the topics that I treat in my blog knows how to judge the contribution that my work could potentially add to the state of knowledge. Since I am in transition looking for a position in research, if you are one of those scientists, by just acknowledging any value you might see from my contribution, would not only make justice to my effort as independent researcher, but ultimately, it will help me to enhance my chances to find a position with resources to further develop my work.
I believe that the hypothesis that I have presented in previous posts in this blog (here, hereand here) could help to understand present and possible future scenarios in atmospheric circulation. However, this is an assessment based on observation which needs to be validated throughout open discussion and data gathering. So please feel free to incorporate your thoughts and comments in a constructive manner.
If you feel like sharing this post I would appreciate to have a reference about the place or platform, by private or public message, in order for me to have the opportunity to join the debate and be aware of the repercussion which might generate d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com
More assessments presenting chronologically the line of research published in this blog can be accessed in the category Framework and Timeline.
For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out, updated 09th Dec 2016):
- New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on October 21, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-k3
- Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on November 14, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-mt
- State of the Polar Vortex. Broken? From 29 Nov 2014 to 5th Jan 2015 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla). Posted on November 29, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-o7
- Gathering data to make visible the invisible (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on December 22, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-pN
- Probability in the atmospheric circulation dictating the Weather (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on January 15, 2015. http://wp.me/p403AM-rm
- Meteorological Outlook Feb 2015 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on February 7, 2015. http://wp.me/p403AM-sU
- Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Posted on February 10, 2015. http://wp.me/p403AM-to
- Drops of Weather. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 7, 2015
- Steering climate´s course (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 27, 2015
- Climate. Looking at the forest for the trees (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 9, 2015
- Matching Features Between Land Surface and Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 23, 2015
- Domesticating Nature. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 7, 2015
- A roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 14, 2015
- Talking about climate (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 12, 2015
- News from an Ecosystem (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 20, 2015
- In climate it is becoming Less probable to not have a High probability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 29, 2015
- Drinking from the source (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 5, 2015
- Communication takes more than just publishing thoughts. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 9, 2015
- Extreme climatic events, implications for projections of species distributions and ecosystem structure (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 18, 2015
- The scope of Environmental Science and scientific thought. From Thought-driven to Data-driven, from Critical Thinking to Data Management. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 26, 2015
- Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Drift. Are we there yet? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 2, 2015
- Lateral thinking. From Micro to Macro (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 4, 2015
- Something for the curious minds. Climate and Streamlines (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 17, 2015
- Solar Activity and Human Activity, Settling Their Environmental Liability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 24, 2015
- Atmospheric composition and thermal conductivity? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)August 6, 2015
- Latitudinal barriers and typhoons (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)August 13, 2015
- The Earth is Ticking (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)August 20, 2015
- What if, the relevant bit lies hidden on identifying the pattern behind similarities instead of trying to match anomalies? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)September 3, 2015
- A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla).September 8, 2015
- Sensing Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)September 22, 2015
- InFormAtion. The “Act” of “Giving Form” to “Knowledge” (by Diego fdez-Sevilla)September 30, 2015
- Arctic Intake of Water Vapour (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 7, 2015
- SST Anomalies and Heat Waves. Are They Not All Just Heat Displacements? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 16, 2015
- Discussing Climatic Teleconnections. Follow Up On My Previous Research (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 21, 2015
- Follow-up on Arctic circulation 30 Oct 2015 ( by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 30, 2015
- There is Ice or Frost In Antarctica? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)November 5, 2015
- Starts Raining Drops of Winter at Mid-Latitudes. The new Autumn? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)November 10, 2015
- Press release. Ask NASA (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)November 12, 2015
- Following the Behaviour of the Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)November 19, 2015
- What Is Wrong With The Concept “Bio”? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)November 26, 2015
- Energy. Looking For Sources of Something We Waste. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)December 3, 2015
- SOILS. The Skeleton Holding The Muscle On Our Ecosystems (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)December 9, 2015
- Could It Be El Niño The New “Wolf” Coming? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)December 11, 2015
- Climate and weather December 2015. Another Polar Vortex another Heat Wave? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)December 18, 2015
- New insides on old concepts (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)December 23, 2015
- Atmospheric Dynamics And Shapes (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)January 13, 2016
- European weather. Old News, Same News? by Diego Fdez-SevillaJanuary 15, 2016
- Observational events on atmospheric dynamics. A follow-up assessment over the theory proposed over Energetic gradients by Diego Fdez-Sevilla.January 29, 2016
- North American Weather. Old News, Same News? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)January 20, 2016
- Observed Atmospheric Dynamics. A follow-up assessment over the theory proposed on Energetic gradients by Diego Fdez-Sevilla.January 29, 2016
- (updated 11-18 Feb2016) Polar Vortex, Old News, Same News? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)February 4, 2016
- Forecasting Past Events. Snow Coming to Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)February 12, 2016
- Do You Believe in the Value of Your Work? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)February 23, 2016
- Forecasts For Ecosystems (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)February 25, 2016
- Seasonality Spring 2016. Continuous follow-up on my previous research assessing atmospheric dynamics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 3, 2016
- Tangled in Words. Atmospheric Dynamics, Stefan Boltzmann Calculations and Energy Balance (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 10, 2016
- Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 22, 2016
- Plant growth, CO2, Soil and Nutrients. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 31, 2016
- Atmospheric Dynamics, GHG’s, Thermal Conductivity and Polar Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 6, 2016
- Feedback. Have Your Say. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 14, 2016
- Plant an Idea and Then a Tree… But Which Ones? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 22, 2016
- (updated 28/April/2016) Severe weather warning 27 April 2016 USA (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 28, 2016
- Research Update May 2016 (by Diego Fdez-sevilla)May 6, 2016
- Scientifically Challenged (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 12, 2016
- Another roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 13, 2015May 13, 2016
- Our Environment. One Vision and Many Thoughts. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 20, 2016
- Atmospheric Circulation and the Mixing Zone. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 26, 2016
- When Temperature Becomes Something Else (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 30, 2016
- Settled Science (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 9, 2016
- The Butterfly Effect on Arctic Circulation. (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 10, 2016
- Who has the right and the responsibility to discuss Climate as a topic of debate? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)June 20, 2016
- Snap shot of a day 22 June 2016. Follow-up on previous research over atmospheric dynamics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)June 22, 2016
- Atmospheric mixing. Indian Basin June 2016 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)July 1, 2016
- Research From The Bench (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) July 6, 2016
- Every Little Counts (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) July 13, 2016
- Dream Your Way Out (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) July 15, 2016
- Atmospheric Dynamics. Foreseeable, At The Moment. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)July 19, 2016
- The Colour of Intelligence (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) July 20, 2016
- Climbing The Hill Of Development (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) July 27, 2016
- Climbing the Hill of Acknowledgement. Peer reviewed articles supporting previous assessments and research published in this blog. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) July 28, 2016
- Environmental Questions and Answers for Petrol Fans (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)August 2, 2016
- What is on the menu? “Plastic” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) August 4, 2016
- The Compartmentalization of Evolution (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) August 5, 2016
- Ups and Downs on Climatic Assessments. A Matter of Multiple Perspectives from the Same Point of View (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) August 12, 2016
- Climate. The Long Distance Between Science And Politics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) August 21, 2016
- Aug 2016 Follow-up on previous assessments. Atmospheric Dynamics, Temperature Displacements, Atmospheric Mixing (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) August 26, 2016
- Climate Drift, The True Meaning of Things and the Drift of Those. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) September 2, 2016
- Summer is what summer brings (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) September 5, 2016
- In Climate, Too Many Strange Things Are Happening (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)September 6, 2016
- Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) September 14, 2016
- Solar Forcing in Our Climatic and Atmospheric Dynamics. Location, Location, Location (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) September 22, 2016
- Forecasting Past Events In Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)October 1, 2016
- Equatorial Dynamics. A conversation between Joaquin and Matthew (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) October 7, 2016
- Global Mixing in Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.) October 13, 2016
- Energy in our environmental systems. Follow-up on previous assessments. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) October 19, 2016
- Another Heat Wave Another Polar Vortex II … Broken (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)October 25, 2016
- Autumn and the NH Polar Jet Stream (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) October 27, 2016
- Forecast Unusual (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) November 4, 2016
- Climate. Too Simple To Be It (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) November 7, 2016
- Cyclonic Alignment Towards the Arctic (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) November 10, 2016
- Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) November 17, 2016
- Atmospheric Thermal Conductance (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) November 25, 2016
- Just Thinking on Climate (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) November 30, 2016
- So Many Questions, We Have Stopped Asking New Ones. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)December 7, 2016
- RECAP 9Dec16 on previous assessments (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) December 9, 2016
- Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) December 17, 2016
- Wind conditions 250 hPa Jet Stream. What a Mess. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)December 20, 2016
- Worst than a change is a pattern of no change ( by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) December 22, 2016
- Orbital Melting vs Kinetic Melting (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) December 30, 2016
- The value of having a point of view (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) January 5, 2017
- Temp Displacements. Solid Water In A Dessert Which Is Not At The Poles. (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) January 9, 2017