The Antarctic Bubble (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)


The Antarctic Bubble (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)

These days it is becoming very active the discussion over the situation at Antarctica.

Some examples from Google search:

Antarctica hits record high temperature at balmy 63.5°F | Reuters

2 days ago- An Argentine research base near the northern tip of the Antarctic peninsula has set a heat record at a balmy 63.5° Fahrenheit (17.5 degrees …

1 day ago- Temperatures on the Antarctic continent reached a record-breaking high of 63.5 degrees Fahrenheit in 2015, according to a new report of …

2 days ago- OSLO, March 1 (Reuters) – An Argentine research base near the northern tip of the Antarctic peninsula has set a heat record at a balmy 17.5 …

2 days ago – An Argentine research base logged a new high-temperature record for Antarctica, a finding that has now been confirmed. The temperature was …

_____________________________

The Antarctic Bubble

Memory is something models do not apply in order to find coherence. Models either incorporate the data or not. We can apply different sets of data to offer different assessments for the same event, and by comparing those we might recall something else which comes as the missing piece which makes everything to make sense.

On Oct. 7, 2014 NASA published: “Antarctic Sea Ice Reaches New Record Maximum”

On March 31, 2015 National Geographic PUBLISHED: “Antarctica May Have Hit Highest Temperature on Record”

In order to expose my research for public review and validate its value I would like to re-publish my assessment so you can leave your opinion.

From previous post:

November 5, 2015 There is Ice or Frost In Antarctica? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)

Citation:

My personal posture, based on my previous observations, analyses and discussions (published in this blog), is set on considering as a reality the fact of that there are dynamics in the atmosphere which point to alterations from previous stable patterns linked with climatic developments. And all the mechanisms involved in driving the forces dominating all the processes are closely interconnected with the transformation in composition and structure suffered by each component of our global ecosystem (atmosphere, ground, biological performance and water bodies) due to anthropogenic forcing.

Ultimately, my line of thinking and research has led me to consider that in order to study if the dynamics in the planet are indicating a contrast with average variations over time the best methodology should be based on considering that heat is just an expression of Energy and therefore, temperature does not resolve the question and neither the concept of Global Warming.

There is an ongoing process of adaptation in all those parts of our ecosystem being under transformation, which in total means “Global Adaptation to a Global Transformation due to a Global Changing Environment”.

Nobody denies the changes in Atmospheric composition or Land Use and Cover as well as in the Oceans and water cycles. The debate lays on how big or small is the capacity of our planet to absorb those transformations before “we” “feel” any perturbation.

The perturbations are there, but, are they perturbations from average variability or beyond average? So ultimately we need to learn to understand the language used by those perturbations that is telling us something because it seems that there is a lack in the agreement on what that language means. And yet, with such limitations considering that we are trying to understand a language that we do not dominate, mathematical modelling has become the learning school.

As I see it, a mathematical model is like a painting on a transparent canvas. The spaces not covered have a significant impact over the whole. An empty space in the real world has a different meaning, and implications, than in a mathematical model. It has very different repercussions to have a variable being 0 or false, than not having the variable playing any role. Each situation, defined by different variables, needs a different mathematical expression, but no expression can consider the repercussion of an “empty space” if it is considered in the expression. IF you paint a space as empty, it is not empty any more, so the option of being occupied by “new info” disappears.

So there is a language that we struggle to understand and that is the one behind all the perturbations that we are capable to identify in our environment (and the ones that we are not capable yet). There is also the language that it is being built in modelling but, I also feel that there is also a language that we can relate to and that it is part of our already familiar surroundings.

In a previous post I discussed atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics using a pressure cooker to point out some mechanisms being in place in our weather events and climatic development. Here in this post, and in relation with the question of how can Antarctica, the coldest part of our planet, gain Ice when the atmosphere seems to keep absorbing GHGs which in turn enhance its thermal conductivity through water vapour, I want to use a very common form of language that we encounter when we try to understand what is going on in the coldest part of our house, our freezer.

If your house, “or planet”, has a high humidity level, simply opening and closing the freezer door (polar Jet Streams) will cause some amount of frost to accumulate. The freezer has a built in heater to melt this build-up in the “Arctic specifications model”, but the “Antarctica model” does not.

One of the recent publication addressing the situation at the Antarctic pole shows the ice cover extent

Closing remarks

A point in space can be under an enormous pressure in one instant and very low in the next one. That happens if such point in space is inside a balloon being inflated.

Thresholds are invisible to us, even from space.

Something is clear, in order to reach certain values in our ecosystems, the energy required to reach such point has to be from somewhere, and as part of a chain reaction with many other previous steps involved, with and without strong variations in the ENSO

March 22, 2016 Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)

We can not just be amazed by the fireworks and believe in magic.

June 5, 2015 Climate and Data. Drinking From the Source (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
October 21, 2015 Discussing Climatic Teleconnections. Follow Up On My Previous Research (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
What if, the relevant bit lies hidden on identifying the pattern behind similarities instead of trying to match anomalies? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) September 3, 2015

There is a process behind our amusement for which our comprehension will make all the difference in assessing foreseeable consequences.

We can not be proudly standing by our capacity to bend the laws of physics throughout our technology and capacity to conquer any place on Earth and Space without considering the consequence of applying such power. That is just a basic application of the third law of Newton.

December 23, 2015 New insides on old concepts (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
May 13, 2014 Looking at the influence of continentality in atmospheric circulation. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
November 17, 2016 Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)
June 10, 2016 The Butterfly Effect on Arctic Circulation. Peer review verification on previous assessments (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)



This work is protected under Intellectual Property laws licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.)

As March 2017, I am looking for new opportunities and new challenges, to join a team. At the same time that I look for job openings to incorporate my resume, I would encourage any one finding interesting any of the skills which I apply throughout my research, as well as communicator, to evaluate my profile as a candidate for your projects. email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

After performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, in 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new job. However, in such competitive scenario, instead of just moving my cv between desks waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I used it as an advantageous standing point to start and develop independent research in a blog in which I could open my own line of research completely free of external pressures or interferences. Through the whole project I have published pieces of research applying my own perspective focused on addressing relevant environmental questions.

The work which I present in my blog is just a chapter in my career. At Feb 2017, it has reached an stage in which its framework has been defined and it has been applied in follow-ups delivering the subsequent conclusions.

The level of uncertainty which I have accomplished in my assessments has reached enough accuracy to replicate real time developments to the point of compete with models sustained by corporate and administrative budgets.

The economic support sustaining the three years of research presented in this blog has been private based on my own capacity to generate it. Once the main conclusions of the project have demonstrated their value, it is time for my career to find new ways of growth and/or external sources of financial support.

Therefore, at this time Feb 2017, the generation of assessments over present developments discontinues in the absence of external financial support.

You can look at the whole project (more than 190 posts between Oct 2013 to Feb 2017) published at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com and also you will find some of those publications in my profile at ResearchGate

I am living in Spain free to relocate geographically worldwide.

Since October 2013 I have been publishing pieces of research studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.

Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License,  WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in Researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.

Author’s Disclosure Declaration

For those unaware of the content offered in this blog I might have to issue a warning: Handle with care. Also with the product obtained from scientific analytical thinking there are traces of personal and professional “passion”, by-products obtained from “original and unpeered grey matter juice” originated from “independent critical thinking”. Also sometimes the packaging might be rough around the edges due to its “unfunded nature”.

4 years ago I joined a discussion which made me realise how much knowledge was settled on the past, built upon past conventions and unable to give answers about present developments in all parts of our environment. From the impact from GMOs, plastics, soils degradation, atmospheric composition, land use and cover, water cycles, … I had addressed scientifically unanswered questions before doing my PhD so I decided to give it a go and to offer my take over those gaps. It has been a pilgrimage to become aware of how much faith and fear is put on scientific publishing above raw understanding and discussion.

I do not know how far this blog will go, however, it represents the assessment of a global process and I expect that past posts will become a description of continuous present for the next years.

Altogether, the body of work which represents the line of research presented in this blog is composed by more than 190 pieces, covering data analyses and conceptual discussions. All those different discussions and assessments presented here build together a single concept. The format applied is the result of making a big effort trying to apply simplistic approaches with the aim to allow a multidisciplinary access. Since the topics treated in my publications have implications for many sectors in the academic and not academic world, with the aim of allowing my research for open review, there is also the objective of allowing access to a multisectorial and multidisciplinary audience sharing interest.

For a more profound discussion over my assessments and analyses as well as constructive feedback, please use my email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com.

My agenda is simple, I am in transition looking for either funding to grow the research published in this blog or for a job position in any field in which my assets are valued. Behind my research there is nothing more, nothing else than to showcase my capabilities doing what I like, research. I am a methodologist. I don´t look at the color of the result obtained, only at the suitability of the method and the coherence of the result. As I have said before, if I am wrong on my assessments and conclusions, it will be better for all, and my work would showcase my capabilities anyway. A CV shines the goals obtained by anyone, but by publishing here my research, I expose myself and my work to public judgement. There is a difference between being naive and raw. If you see the difference you will understand better my work and my personal position.

The aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. So any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time of at least a month from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found refuting the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.

In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will help me in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.

Perspective

(This post is part of a more complex piece of independent research. I don´t have funding, political agenda or publishing revenues from visits. Any scientist working in disciplines related with the topics that I treat in my blog knows how to judge the contribution that my work could potentially add to the state of knowledge. Since I am in transition looking for a position in research, if you are one of those scientists, by just acknowledging any value you might see from my contribution, would not only make justice to my effort as independent researcher, but ultimately, it will help me to enhance my chances to find a position with resources to further develop my work.

I believe that the hypothesis that I have presented in previous posts in this blog (here, hereand here) could help to understand present and possible future scenarios in atmospheric circulation. However, this is an assessment based on observation which needs to be validated throughout open discussion and data gathering. So please feel free to incorporate your thoughts and comments in a constructive manner.

If you feel like sharing this post I would appreciate to have a reference about the place or platform, by private or public message, in order for me to have the opportunity to join the debate and be aware of the repercussion which might generate d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

More assessments presenting chronologically the line of research published in this blog can be accessed in the category Framework and Timeline.

For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out, updated 09th Dec 2016):

 

 

 

 

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About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Citing This Site "Title", published online "Month"+"Year", retrieved on "Month""Day", "Year" from http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! DOIs can be generated on demand by request by email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com for those publications missing at the ResearchGate profile vinculated with this project. Author´s profile: Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my previous work as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After couple of years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, I find myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my research. In the present competitive scenario, instead of just moving my cv and wait for my next opportunity to arrive, I have decided to invest also my energy and time in opening my own line of research showing what I am capable of. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this blog has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my work and the intellectual rights represented by the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in this line of research. Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome. In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2017, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2017. Filling in or Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/
This entry was posted in Aerobiology, Energy Balance, Influence of Continentality, Water vapour and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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