Irma. Another perspective (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)
(updated 11Sept 2017. 12 Sept 2017.)
I am going to be very cautious with my publication. There are official channels with proper resources and skilful people working full time over the situation at the Caribbean in relation with the Irma hurricane. So my only intention with my publication is to assess the validity of previous analyses by contrasting those with the actual developments, with my only humble intention of offering what I have for anyone interested in case my assessments can be of some help.
This publication is one year old and I believe that there are similarities in the circulation surrounding the developments in latitude (a cold trough being displaced from the Arctic while warm intrusions into the Arctic over the Atlantic) and at Jet Stream level. However, there is a major difference comparing with last September in altitude towards the 10hPa. Feel free to comment.
A conversation between Joaquin and Matthew (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD…(Published on 7th Oct 2016)
06 September 2017
NHC Model Forecast
6 Sept 2017
For information about official warnings please visit the National Hurricane Centre page http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Update 8th Sept 2017_ I have made a comment at my profile in LinkedIn yesterday 7th Sept 2017 which I want to share as part of the situation since the models have changed and this change might confirm my worries.
About Irma, I would not rule out yet the possibility of seeing Irma moving into the Gulf.
“I still think that models are taking too much confidence in a turn which I do not think is going to be so sharp. I might lack all the information but it calls my attention the behaviour of the clouds forming over the Cuban island towards the gulf even before Irma arrived as well as the static positioning of Katia. All together with the coalescence of the continental and Atlantic highs, and the trough moving to the East, I think that the track of Irma will follow a more inertial movement than expected. But as I have said, I might lack all the information required to make an accurate forecast…”
8 Sept 17
IR Multisat 8Sept17 0000Z-0600Z
NHC Model Tracks
8 Sept 2017
Update 11 Sept 2017
NHC tropical cyclone forecast track
Changes in the NHC tropical cyclone forecast track between the 6th to the 11 Sept 2017
Path followed by Hurricane Irma Latest 11 Sept 2017
Some previous publications related:
|February 10, 2015||(UPGRADED 24th March2015) Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1975.7602/1|
|September 22, 2015||Sensing Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)|
|May 6, 2016||Climate and Hadley Circulation. Research Update May 2016 (by Diego Fdez-sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.3627.7363|
|July 19, 2016||Atmospheric Dynamics. Foreseeable, At The Moment. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.14079.41127|
|Climate. Looking at the forest for the trees (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)||April 9, 2015|
|What if, the relevant bit lies hidden on identifying the pattern behind similarities instead of trying to match anomalies? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)||September 3, 2015|
|The scope of Environmental Science and scientific thought. From Thought-driven to Data-driven, from Critical Thinking to Data Management. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2007.0161||June 26, 2015|
|March 10, 2017||Modelling the “Model” and the Observer (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.17558.04169|
For More related posts in this topic see timeline page to consult the index with all previous assessments published by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. (author’s email: email@example.com)
After finishing my Masters in Biology Environmental Science in 2001, I have performed research at PhD level and worked inside and outside academia at institutions linked with environmental research and management. In 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new job’s position.
In such competitive scenario, instead of just moving my cv between desks waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I used it as an advantageous standing point to start and develop independent research in a blog in which I could open my own line of research completely free of external pressures or interferences.
Through the whole project I have increasingly being focused on publishing pieces of original research applying my own perspective aiming to address relevant environmental questions.
The level of uncertainty which I have accomplished in my assessments has reached enough accuracy to replicate real time developments to the point of compete with models sustained by corporate and administrative budgets.
On Feb 2017, it has reached an stage in which its framework has been defined and it has been applied in follow-ups (in the timeline section at the bottom use ctrl+F: “follow-up”) delivering the subsequent conclusions. Therefore, the work which I present in my blog has become a chapter in my career, and I should focus now my attention on my new steps towards professional and personal growth.
The economic support sustaining the three years of research presented in this blog has been private based on my own capacity to generate it. Once the main conclusions of the project have demonstrated their value, in the absence of economic support, I can only look into other activities aside offering detailed assessments in this blog in order to keep moving while hoping that my published work could call the interest for its continuity from external sources of financial support.
Therefore, since Feb 2017, the generation of assessments over real-time developments discontinues its weekly bases due to the absence of financial support.
You have to be aware of that while one single line of writing containing an original idea can be read in seconds, reaching such idea might take weeks, months or years of analyses and reasoning. Such process is time consuming and require to achieve a state of mind where the focus of attention is prioritised over the subject under study above other matters. This state of mind can only be achieved and maintained when there is no need to address solving the challenge of being under the pressure of having to find access to all kind of material resources while also searching for ways to support an autonomous life style.
If you are interested in the continuity of this project, please share your interest publicly so investors and institutions might recognise its value and offer the support required to make this research an activity sustainable in a full time schedule.
Some people might think that being independent is related with being free from economical agendas. Since we all rely on economic support to sustain our activities, every activity require economic support. Being “independent” is a mindset which only should reflect an attitude based on a self-evolved criteria built upon a critical mind. It should not be identified with isolation but instead with the reputation of the source offering an opinion.
I am sorry I can not be involved in discussions and assessments in a full time-frame since I do not have the required economic support.
I only hope that with my previous activity I have been able to build a reputation over my capacity to analyse situations, make assessments, build communication channels and interact with others. And I hope that it will help me to find a team interested in sharing such attitude helping to support the reputation of institution/s involved.
Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD In transition
I am looking for new opportunities and new challenges, to join a team. At the same time that I look for job openings to incorporate my resume, I would encourage any one finding interesting any of the skills which I apply throughout my research, as well as communicator, to evaluate my profile as a candidate for your projects. email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com
You can look at the whole project (more than 190 posts between Oct 2013 to Feb 2017) published at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com and also you will find some of those publications in my profile at ResearchGate and at the Citations page.
I am living in Spain free to relocate geographically worldwide.
About this Project:
My definition of Climate Drift is: the deviation from equilibrium of the conditions allowing the perpetuity of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in a micro and macro ecosystem. This situation can be due to changes in any component of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes can be either a change in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality or rates in the flows of energy pre-established OR/AND the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components/forces and energy sinks or sources in any part of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance.
This project published in a blog format, offers pieces of original research in environmental science, and a space for discussion, based on considering as a major factor limiting our understandings the lack of attention given to the gaps of knowledge existent. The concepts, measurements and parameters applied to address environmental synergistic interactions are too narrow and isolated from each other to understand their full meaning. Such circumstance induce to reach dogmatic patterns of thought to make the quickest conclusions in the absence of a better and clear idea describing what is happening.
In this Project I aim to address those limitations using observational analyses offering assessments over real time events considering those as proxies of significant value to make interpretations over global synergistic relationships.
Feedback is always welcome here and at my email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com
Since 2002 I have performed research over the Atmospheric Dynamics interacting with the biota in the field of Aerobiology. In Oct 2013 I focused my attention over climatic dynamics and in Oct 2014 I published what I believe to be a valid theory explaining current developments in atmospheric dynamics. I shared my thoughts at my blog and several groups in LinkedIn (like the AGU, NASA and NOA groups) where the immense response offered has been silence.
In Feb 2015 I published a revision and since then a constant follow-up throughout more than 200 assessments. Still today, April 2017, the majority of the response is silence despite the amount of visits identified by all the SEO tools and the interactions and shares accounted. See the related stats at the Timeline page.
So I thank your open feedback and share.
Nowadays, there are many divisions between disciplines due to the isolated nature of their specific language and methodologies. I might not use the right vocabulary for all the fields which I discuss, or the right data or the right reasoning. But when nobody is able to offer a consensus over what it is going on, I wonder, what is right this days?.