Starts Raining Drops of Winter at Mid-Latitudes. The new Autumn? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)
The wobbliness of the North Hemispheric Polar Jet Stream made the news in 2013/14 as the result of a broken Polar Vortex, dropping masses of cold air at mid-latitudes, bringing winter weather all along their paths. In 2014/15 the Jet Stream kept wobbling, however this time, without a persistent Polar Vortex broken. I called them drops of weather and discussed the significance of their formation and the implications.
We are at the transition from Summer to Winter 2015/16. At the Iberian peninsula, even at Canary Islands and through the Mediterranean sea, we have started to see such drops of weather to appear once again. The sequence between cold and warm periods is creating wide contrasts in temperature. It seems that it is starting to rain drops of winter and that this must be the new Autumn to come.

Observed Max/Min Temp in comparison with average 1981-2010. Location Madrid- Retiro. Center of Spain. Altitud (m): 667 Latitud: 40° 24′ 43” N – Longitud: 3° 40′ 41” O Source Aemet.

Observed Max/Min Temp in comparison with average 1981-2010. Location Santiago de Compostela. North West Spain. Altitude (m): 370 Latitude: 42° 53′ 17” N – Longitude: 8° 24′ 38” W Source Aemet.
In the following video I present an animation with images taken from satellite (Eumetsat Airmass) between the 20th Oct 2015 and 9 Nov 2015 showing the behaviour of the Jet Stream and the recent masses of cold air moving at Mid Latitudes. I also gathered some images showing the forecast built from GFS model for pressure at 500mb and temperature showing the expected behaviour of the Jet Stream from 9th Nov to 20th Nov. In total, between observation and forecast, there is a 30 days period.
If you take your time, you can correlate visually the movements of the cold and warm masses of air getting close to the Iberian Peninsula and the variations in Temp shown in the charts.
The reason behind this wobbling behaviour of the Jet Stream and the implications for climatic developments have been discussed in previous posts such as A climate between Waters, Discussing Climatic Teleconnections and looking at the Ice/Frost situation at Antarctica.
These three publications are part of a theoretical approach proposed in this blog to explain recent, present and future developments in global atmospheric dynamics. One basic principle applied suggests that the Poles have being kept isolated from receiving heat by the Polar Jet Streams meanwhile the rest of the atmosphere was increasingly heating up. Once the close and constant contact between warm subpolar and cold polar masses of air have started to wear off the thermal contrast of the Jet Streams, these become wobbly and began to allow a fluent interchange of masses of air between both sides. Ultimately, the new volume of space being opened at Polar latitudes to incorporate heat from warm masses of air would increase the thermal capacity of the global atmosphere to keep accommodating GHGs and water vapour without increasing the net global temperature.
The actual state of the Jet Stream and the Temp anomalies registered at the Poles, supports the validity of this theory. Furthermore, this anomalies also supports the validity of all subsidiary indirect effects over atmospheric water vapour distributions and associated weather events discussed in previous posts.
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(This post is part of a more complex piece of independent research. I don´t have founding, political agenda or publishing revenues from visits. Any scientist working in disciplines related with the topics that I treat in my blog knows how to judge the contribution that my work could potentially add to the state of knowledge. Since I am in transition looking for a position in research, if you are one of those scientists, by just acknowledging any value you might see from my contribution, would not only make justice to my effort as independent researcher, but ultimately, it will help me to enhance my chances to find a position with resources to further develop my work.
I believe that the hypothesis that I have presented in previous posts in this blog (here,here and here) could help to understand present and possible future scenarios in atmospheric circulation. However, this is an assessment based on observation which needs to be validated throughout open discussion and data gathering. So please feel free to incorporate your thoughts and comments in a constructive manner.
If you feel like sharing this post I would appreciate to have a reference about the place or platform, by private or public message, in order for me to have the opportunity to join the debate and be aware of the repercussion which might generate d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com)
For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out):
- New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on October 21, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-k3
- Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on November 14, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-mt
- Gathering data to make visible the invisible (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on December 22, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-pN
- State of the Polar Vortex. Broken? From 29 Nov 2014 to 5th Jan 2015 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla). Posted on November 29, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-o7
- Probability in the atmospheric circulation dictating the Weather (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on January 15, 2015. http://wp.me/p403AM-rm
- Meteorological Outlook Feb 2015 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on February 7, 2015. http://wp.me/p403AM-sU
- Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Posted on February 10, 2015. http://wp.me/p403AM-to
- Matching Features Between Land Surface and Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 23, 2015
- Drops of Weather. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 7, 2015
- Steering climate´s course (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 27, 2015
- Climate. Looking at the forest for the trees (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 9, 2015
- Matching Features Between Land Surface and Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 23, 2015
- Domesticating Nature. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 7, 2015
- A roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 14, 2015
- Talking about climate (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 12, 2015
- News from an Ecosystem (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 20, 2015
- In climate it is becoming Less probable to not have a High probability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 29, 2015
- Drinking from the source (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 5, 2015
- Communication takes more than just publishing thoughts. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 9, 2015
- Extreme climatic events, implications for projections of species distributions and ecosystem structure (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 18, 2015
- The scope of Environmental Science and scientific thought. From Thought-driven to Data-driven, from Critical Thinking to Data Management. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 26, 2015
- Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Drift. Are we there yet? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 2, 2015
- Lateral thinking. From Micro to Macro (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 4, 2015
- Something for the curious minds. Climate and Streamlines (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 17, 2015
- Solar Activity and Human Activity, Settling Their Environmental Liability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 24, 2015
- Atmospheric composition and thermal conductivity? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)August 6, 2015
- Latitudinal barriers and typhoons (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)August 13, 2015
- The Earth is Ticking (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)August 20, 2015
- What if, the relevant bit lies hidden on identifying the pattern behind similarities instead of trying to match anomalies? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)September 3, 2015
- A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla).September 8, 2015
- Sensing Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)September 22, 2015
- InFormAtion. The “Act” of “Giving Form” to “Knowledge” (by Diego fdez-Sevilla)September 30, 2015
- Arctic Intake of Water Vapour (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 7, 2015
- SST Anomalies and Heat Waves. Are They Not All Just Heat Displacements? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 16, 2015
- Discussing Climatic Teleconnections. Follow Up On My Previous Research (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 21, 2015
- Follow-up on Arctic circulation 30 Oct 2015 ( by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) October 30, 2015
- There is Ice or Frost In Antarctica? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) November 5, 2015
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