Forecasting Past Events In Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)


Forecasting Past Events In Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)

After having seen the recent events in the Atlantic and Pacific basins through 2016, I would like to reassess the validity of previous assessments by confronting present developments in atmospheric conditions with those from last year. Such exercise has two aims; to verify the validity of previous assessments and to evaluate the potential developments which could drive the current developments by considering the validity of those assessments.

Differently from last summer 2015, this summer 2016, the atmospheric activity in the Equator has shown a behaviour which can not be directly related with the dynamics usually related with a strong positive or negative ENSO.

ENSO status

Time-longitude section of the upper ocean (0-300 m) average heat content anomalies along the equator calculated using pentad data. Anomalies are departures from the 1982-2004 base period pentad means.

In March 2016 I published an assessment discussing the developments which could unfold independently from the ENSO status.

Atmospheric dynamics and Previous assessments:

My research points to convective processes triggered due to warmed up masses of air are increasing turbulent mixing thanks to GHGs and Aerosols positive feedback with water vapour as the carrier of energy being spread over the atmosphere, in altitude and latitude.

Through paleo time scales, there has been a significant change in the properties of the body receiving the energy from he Sun, in Albedo, evapotranspiration rates and location, land cover… and configuration of energy flows absorbing, re-emitting, transferring or liberating energy.

My definition of Climate drift is, the deviation from equilibrium of the conditions allowing the perpetuity of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in a micro and macro ecosystem. This situation can be due to changes in any component of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes can be either a change in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality or rates in the flows of energy pre-established OR/AND the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components/forces and energy sinks or sources in any part of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance.

Differently from last summer 2015, this summer 2016, the atmospheric activity in the Equator has shown a behaviour which can not be directly linked with the dynamics usually related with a strong positive or negative ENSO. In July 2016 I published an assessment discussing the developments which could unfold independently from the ENSO status.

After having seen the recent events in the Atlantic and Pacific basins, and based on this definition of climate drift and the assessments presented in this blog, I do believe that there are objective and significant events connected. And that all are behaving under a dynamic which can be explained by the alteration of energy flows in the global system as the result of alterations in the composition and structure of all its parts, liquid (water cycles and water bodies inland and oceanic), gaseous (atmospheric composition and structure) and solid (land and aerosols).

Looking at the current developments I would repeat the same interpretation over the present dynamics and the same assessments which I have shared in previous publications since 2013.

Since I don´t want to steer the judgement from those aware of the implication behind my research, I just leave here images representing the actual state of the atmospheric circulation so you can compare the current developments with the previous assessments presented in the line of research published in this blog.

Atmospheric conditions between same days in 2015 and 2016

15_16-sept-28-2016-polar-vortex-and-jet-stream-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

The current condition are also the precedent for the next winter 2016/17

17th Dec 2015 by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

 

gfs-025deg_arc-lea_t2_anom_2016-09-28_0000utc_init gfs-025deg_arc-lea_pwtr_2016-09-28_0000utc_init

temp10hpa-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd temp50hpa-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd-www_diegofdezsevilla_wordpress_com

Some relevant examples from Previous Assessments

Atmospheric Circulation and the Mixing Zone. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

Atmospheric Circulation and the Mixing Zone. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

Climate and weather December 2015. Another Polar Vortex another Heat Wave? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

Climate and weather December 2015. Another Polar Vortex another Heat Wave? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

Climate Drift, The True Meaning of Things and the Drift of Those (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

Climate Drift, The True Meaning of Things and the Drift of Those (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

Solar Forcing

Even though my research does not have all the answers you can see my position over Solar forcing in a more extended way in the post:

A solar minima would induce lower temperatures in the Arctic increasing the thermal differential between mid-latitudes and Arctic circulation. That would strengthen the Polar Jet Stream, and the current conditions under a solar minima are just the opposite. Convective processes are affecting the configuration of the Polar Jet Stream and all my assessments seem to find a logical explanation for it.

I have discussed in previous publication Climate and Data. Drinking From the Source (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) 2015/06/05 that acronyms, in atmospheric circulation and SST dynamics, risk to become stereotypes which overshadow intuitive understanding of what they represent.

The influence of the Solar activity over the NAO imply to accept implications which are not justified by processes or mechanisms linking all parts of the global ecosystem.

If you translate acronyms into descriptive dynamics, in order to have solar activity driving oscillations like the NAO would imply to accept that the influence of Solar irradiation or winds, would have the same impact in the NH and in the SH, over the NH Polar Jet Stream and the SH polar Jet Stream, over SST in the Atlantic, the pacific equator (ENSO) and Indic sea (IODM) as well as over tropical dynamics (MJO) and air temperature and ice cover at the SH. Furthermore, there is the issue of justifying from Solar activity, the thermodynamic conditions required for the atmosphere to accommodate the amount of heat and energy (potential, kinetic and thermal) that we can observe. An increase in energetic processes which are not fuelled by an increase in solar input, but instead, by increasing the energetic conductivity of the atmosphere (composition) capable of thermically absorb and carry water vapor.

Due to all those reasons my research considers that the Sun interacts “with” the chemistry of the atmosphere and its dynamics. And therefore, the chemistry of the atmosphere is defined by its composition, making such composition the main component in the system.

Forecasting past events

(Update 3 Oct 2016. Added extracts from previous publications)

From A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla).

I believe that the present weather events, altogether with the tornado seen in Venice on July, represent some of the new “Drops of Weather” coming over to say that the Summer, as we know it, is coming to an end.

The reason behind it seems to be the sporadic and unpredictable behaviour of the Jet stream, which not only is wobbly in latitude, but also in the vertical profile of the atmosphere. Accordingly, we can see that when it comes to lower levels from 300hPa induces alterations in the thermodynamical behaviour of the tropospheric circulation. In turn, when this cold air touches the lower level of our atmosphere, activates the energy accumulated in the Water vapour contained in it as latent heat, delivering new forms of energy; kinetic provoking strong winds, electrostatic generating lightnings and potential carried in the mass of all the water coming from its gaseous state into liquid or solid precipitation.

I have already discussed what is my theory about what it is happening that it is generating such a wobbly jet stream in latitude and altitude. This theory was published in a previous post and it points out the incorporation of masses of water vapour into polar latitudes as consequence of CO2 forcing as the cause wearing out the strength of the Polar Jet Stream.

I also have suggested that such incorporation of masses of water vapour into Polar Latitudes follow channels which are linked with persistent cyclonic events in the Atlantic and the Pacific. The present patterns seen in the circulation over the Pacific and the Atlantic are consistent with those proposed in this theory.

Ultimately, if this theory is right and weather patterns are incorporating water vapour into Polar latitudes, it would affect:

  • The strength of the Polar Jet Stream becoming wobbly from the bottom up, from tropospheric circulation forcing instead of from the stratospheric Polar vortex, (more here)
  • Introduction of water vapour into Arctic Polar latitudes would decrease temperature gradients in the Pole reducing ice and snow cover, (more here)
  • that would induce ice melting which in turn would affect SST and Oceanic circulation in the Atlantic and Pacific. That would explain the cold anomaly in SST in the North Atlantic, thus the AMOC and global thermohialine circulation going around the Antarctic and arriving at the Pacific.(more here)
  • Arctic Polar masses of air getting warmed up would become involved in translatitudinal circulation from the Atlantic and the Pacific through the Arctic, in a breathing like cycle. That would open a new channel for balancing gradients of atmospheric pressure between the atmospheric masses of air above both Oceans. That would explain the synchronicity between Low pressures observed in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, (more here).
  • An interconnection between Atlantic and Pacific atmospheric circulation through the Arctic would affect Equatorial winds. That would have an impact over the distribution of SST being dominated by them, being the most relevant the ENSO.(more here and here)
  • Furthermore,  new channels breaking the restriction of keeping warm masses of air bellow Polar circulation would release the thermodynamical limits for equatorial latitudes to absorb water and heat, therefore, increasing thermal conductivity towards upper latitudes. That would explain heat waves moving upward in latitude.(more here and here)
  • At the same time, incorporating the possibility for subtropical circulation to occupy the volume of space at Polar latitudes would allow the global circulation to absorb more energy without steep increases in temperature thanks to the extra volume added to be occupied.(more here)
  • An homogenization in the amount of energy carried in the atmosphere by water vapour would induce a decrease between gradients of energy. That would allow atmospheric events to persist in location and time due to the reduced capacity of the atmosphere to dissipate its energy.(more here)
  • The amount of energy being accommodated by the atmosphere would behave like electricity, being tamed by the capacity of the surroundings to absorb and conduct it. But, like a short circuit, the energy contained in the atmosphere, could overwhelm the capacity for the surroundings to cope with it in a smoothly manner, triggering abrupt discharges from energy in latent heat form carried by the water vapour, into potential energy carried by the masses of water in form of hail and  rain, and kinetic energy generating strong winds. All those forms of energy capable of decimating crops, houses and even killing animals as we have seen in some videos in this post.(more here).

The level of certainty that I have gathered from statistical analyses comes in the form of the following chart

Diegto Fdez-Sevilla

From previous publication Atmospheric Circulation and the Mixing Zone. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.). May 26, 2016

Septiembre 30, 2016

Hurricane Matthew Rapidly Intensifies to Category 3 Strength By: Jeff Masters , 3:00 PM GMT en Septiembre 30, 2016. wunderground.com

Hurricane Matthew put on an impressive and unexpected display of rapid intensification overnight, becoming the Caribbean’s first major hurricane since Sandy of 2012. Friday morning, and between 7 am and 10 am EDT found that Matthew’s winds continued to rise and the pressure to fall. Surface winds measured by their stepped frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR) were as high as 114 mph, and flight-level winds at 10,000 feet hit 118 mph, putting Matthew at minimal Category 3 strength.

Matthew’s rapid intensification was something of a surprise, as it occurred despite the presence of strong upper-level winds out of the southwest that were creating high wind shear of 20 knots.

September 27, 2015.

A storm developed on September 27, 2015 in the Atlantic Ocean. The storm rapidly intensified as it moved toward the Bahamas. The storm became a hurricane which strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane and remained at that intensity for several days as it lashed the Bahamas.

Eventually the storm curled back to the northeast and accelerated, passing by Bermuda just to the west. This storm remained a hurricane for a few days beyond that, before dissipating on October 7.

This hurricane was named Joaquin. (weather.com)

Utilizing an instrument for estimating surface winds, the stepped frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR), a Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance mission estimated surface winds of around 135 knots, or 155 mph just before noon on October 3.

This was just 2 mph shy of becoming a Category 5 hurricane.

By wind speed, Joaquin at that time was the strongest Atlantic hurricane since Hurricane Igor in 2010 also had 155 mph maximum winds. It has been over eight years since the last Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin, Hurricane Felix in 2007.

The research

I have been studying atmospheric dynamics since 2001. Beginning as part of Aerobiological research projects (the field studying the synergistic feedbacks between atmosphere and biological processes) in 2012 I found myself with the freedom to choose my own line of research, Therefore, I started to focus my attention over environmental synergies and atmospheric dynamics and in 2013 I begun to publish my research in this blog.

The first gap of knowledge that called my attention from the scientific research being published was the publicly accepted lack of proposed mechanisms and theoretical approaches able to explain the results being obtained from data sets and statistical analyses. Therefore, every aspect which I address in my research

aims to

  • propose and discuss arguments linking principles, processes and mechanisms,
  • verifying the accuracy of all assessments by coupling discussions with the developments being observed in the real world through a constant follow-up (as far as my limitations as independent researcher allows me).

Framework and time line

In Oct 2014 I proposed a theory applying scientific principles, describing those mechanisms which link the current developments in atmospheric dynamics with the transformation of our environment (composition and structure), and how they interact with the energy flows present in the synergies involved.

My research points to several drivers defining the current atmospheric dynamics causing a drift in our climatic regimes.

Convective processes triggered due to warmed up masses of air are increasing turbulent mixing thanks to GHGs and Aerosols positive feedback with water vapour as the carrier of energy being spread over the atmosphere, in altitude and latitude.

Sun’s activity does not interact with out-space temperatures because there is no matter in such space. In our atmosphere, Sun´s activity interacts with the composition of the atmosphere, and therefore, the composition of the atmosphere becomes relevant in order to understand its behaviour.

In 2014 I wanted to contrast the validity of my proposition with other scientists so I sent couple of emails and shared my theory in this blog and at Linkedin asking for feedback.

I wrote it down in my blog and I shared it in my profile in academia.edu and at several groups in LinkedIn. Members at LinkedIn kept silent. 170 visits in one day, no criticism, neither acknowledgement.

A Groundhog forecast on climate at the North Hemisphere. New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on 21 October 2014. (link to the publication in this blog)

Links to the publication at LinkedIn’s groups (2014/10/25 12:58:23 UTC)(you need to be logged-in in order to have access to the links):

I shared with Prof. Jennifer Francis my first two publications describing my approach and assessments.

In Dec 2014 she replied that “there were no peer reviewed publications at the time available to verify my assessments so I should offer my own data and analyses“.

Accordingly, in February 2015 I wrote a follow-up piece revisiting and contrasting my theory with the events occurred throughout the winter 2014-15 and shared it again looking for feedback.

Links to the publication at LinkedIn’s groups (2015/03/24 07:22:15 UTC):

It is being more challenging than I expected to find feedback on it when members at specialised groups like AGU and NOAA kept silent without agreement or disagreement.

Follow-up

Following the criteria suggested by Francis, for three years I have kept evaluating the state of the atmospheric dynamics publishing several follow-ups as a part of the verification process required to validate my approach. See time-line here.

Agendas and Author’s Interests Disclosure

My agenda is simple, I am in transition between job positions, looking for either funding to grow the research published in this blog or for a job position in any field in which my assets are valued. Behind my research there is nothing more, nothing else than to showcase my capabilities doing what I like, research. I am a methodologist. I don´t look at the the colour of the result obtained, only at the suitability of the method and the coherence of the result. As I have said before, if I am wrong on my assessments and conclusions, it will be better for all, and my work would showcase my capabilities anyway. A CV shines the goals obtained by anyone, but by publishing here my research, I expose myself and my work to public judgement. There is a difference between being naive and raw. If you see the difference you will understand better my work and my personal position.

The work that you have available from my assessments throughout this blog represents what I can offer without any type of support from any institution or funding body or alike. Such situation has given me the “freedom” to follow my own path, but also, it has restricted my capacity to develop further some key aspects.

The further exploration and assessments of those key aspects rely entirely in the stability of the resources which made available. So far I have used my savings, skills, time and energy, single handed, to retrieve data, make observations, perform research, analyses and assessments. But also to write down a comprehensible body accessible for a multidisciplinary audience, to create visualizations containing relevant information as much as into generating a dynamic and constructive channel of communication through different media platforms.

Due to all the requirements that such activity demands in the form of man power, (time and energy) multidisciplinary skills (scientific research, writing, digital imagery content, social media interaction and monitoring), economic stability covering needs such as internet connection, material maintenance, space rental and general bills, the restrictions in economic and institutional support are wearing of my capacity to secure my future involvement carrying out further activities expanding my assessments.

If you are reading about my work and you are interested in my participation please send me an email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

Universities, technical laboratories, governmental units and Institutions such as NOAA, NASA, Met Office, ECMWF, etc, can offer you expectations in future outcomes based on the projection of their continuous work. However, I am afraid I can not offer any projection on how far I can take my research being on my own. So take every publication as it is the last and feel free to contact me at my email. What I have published is what I have considered relevant and save to be made public because I can defend it. Many more aspects which I have not published yet are waiting to see how far my previous assessments are assimilated, discussed and accepted by the community.

My first publication offering my conclusion over the state of the global environment had no repercussion at all and yet, it is the one which condensates my whole approach in the simplest conceptualization.

27 Nov 2013 Climate variability and energy balance. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

______________________________________

I am an independent researcher in transition between jobs. Therefore, without an affiliation, it is very difficult to publish my work in scientific journals. Without publications I am finding very difficult to have access to a job position with an affiliation. When in 2014 I asked specialists in the field about my theory and the assessments presented in my work I was told that my work could not be considered of relevance since my assessments  have not been verified by previous peer reviewed research. SO, the aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. And therefore, any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found refuting the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.

In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will help me in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.

Perspective

(This post is part of a more complex piece of independent research. I don´t have founding, political agenda or publishing revenues from visits. Any scientist working in disciplines related with the topics that I treat in my blog knows how to judge the contribution that my work could potentially add to the state of knowledge. Since I am in transition looking for a position in research, if you are one of those scientists, by just acknowledging any value you might see from my contribution, would not only make justice to my effort as independent researcher, but ultimately, it will help me to enhance my chances to find a position with resources to further develop my work.

I believe that the hypothesis that I have presented in previous posts in this blog (here, here and here) could help to understand present and possible future scenarios in atmospheric circulation. However, this is an assessment based on observation which needs to be validated throughout open discussion and data gathering. So please feel free to incorporate your thoughts and comments in a constructive manner.

If you feel like sharing this post I would appreciate to have a reference about the place or platform, by private or public message, in order for me to have the opportunity to join the debate and be aware of the repercussion which might generate d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

This work is protected under Intellectual Property laws licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.)

Since October 2013 I have been publishing pieces of research studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.

Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License,  WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.

More assessments presenting chronologically the line of research published in this blog can be accessed in the category Framework and Timeline.

For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out):

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About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Citing This Site "Title", published online "Month"+"Year", retrieved on "Month""Day", "Year" from http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! DOIs can be generated on demand by request at email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com for those publications missing at the ResearchGate profile vinculated with this project. **Author´s profile: Born in 1974. Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my work previous to 2013 as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After 12 years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, in 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my own line of research. In the current competitive scenario, in order to demonstrate my capacities instead of just moving my cv waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I decided to invest my energy and time in opening my own line of research sharing it in this blog. In March 2017 the budget reserved for this project has ended and its weekly basis time frame discontinued until new forms of economic and/or institutional support are incorporated into the project. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this platform and at LinkedIn has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my achievements and that the Intellectual Property Rights generated with the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in similar lines of research. **Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome as well as any approach exploring professional opportunities to be part of.** In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2017, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2017. Filling in or Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/
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18 Responses to Forecasting Past Events In Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)

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