Follow-up on previous assessments 17Sept 2018. About resilient Florence, super typhoon Mangkhut at West Pacific and Atlantic northward Tropical storm Helene. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD


Follow-up on previous assessments 17Sept 2018. About resilient Florence, super typhoon at West Pacific and Atlantic northward Tropical storm Helene. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.

By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. CV english and español. Resume. Interdisciplinary Skills applied in the line of research presented.- Index for all analyses published. – Shares and Feedback at LinkedIn

  Creative Commons LicensePublication also available in pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.32512.48641


Within the line of research that I have offered there is an scenario in which things are plausible with a reason. In this scenario it has become a reality to expect heat waves reaching northern latitudes as well as an  increase in lightning, storminess, and strong wind episodes. All of which is part of an increase in turbulence due to mixing patterns. With these mixing turbulence there is a link between low mid and high latitudes. The streamlines described by condensible water shows direction (north) as well as the disrupture between thermal compartmentalization in the 3 dimensions. In the scenario presented, the synchronicity for hurricanes and cyclones at opposite faces of the Earth, cold front over west Europe, monsoon at India and high temp in the Arctic havge been highlighted as part of the same energetic motion, and resultant of a driver stronger than variations in SST. That is an increase in the atmospheric energetic pool  in the form of free state.  A mixing dynamic creating fluctuations in temperature patterns, and yet, denoting a constant increase in kinetic displayments.

The drainage of the “Arctic cold reservoir” is a process which started with a timid seasonal waving on the Polar Jet Stream.

This process has become more extreme by the years, beginning to show as the collapse of a wall under the pressure on a tide gaining strength.

Convective forcing from mid latitudes is invading the north pole forcing the displacement of cold masses into foreign territories. What began as a process marked by seasonal pulses, this year 2018 is showing to maintain momentum throughout seasons.

The drainage of the Arctic reservoir showed cold blasts in Winter 2017/8 over locations reviving the argument of revisiting post glaciations, while the Arctic was getting anomalously warm. Afterwards, heat waves arrived and all sides got into the “hothouse” of “comforting” past predictions. And yet, meanwhile anomalous cold blasts arrive in August into Asia, Europe and parts of North America.

These swings in the “objective” debate over climatic developments is moving towards a madhouse driven by a fight where the one-eyed tries to rule over the blind. Now is time for hurricane season, a localised event which in terms of atmospheric circulation is the trace left by a world wide pattern. As we speak (17 Sept 2018) whilst we look at the Equator amazed by white elephants, the Arctic is being drained by mid latitudinal intrusion over the Pacific, releasing cold atmospheric icebergs over Canada.

In a simile, it is not the white trace left by a plane what it makes the noise but the plane in front moving the air. 

September 14, 2016 Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.19874.63684 https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/2016/09/14/between-global-cooling-and-global-warming-there-is-global-mixing-by-diego-fdez-sevilla-ph-d/

Florence, Mangkhut and Helene

Do you remember the names: Matthew, Chaba and Nicole?

While we keep fresh the names Florence, Mangkhut and Helene I would like to re-cap on a previous analysis shared in Oct 2016 in order to contrast its validity with current developments. This analysis encapsulates the work done in previous years and its application to understand the developments in the ITCZ zone, the origin of tropical systems and their behaviour, paths, resilience and cargo.

All as part of a global pattern being developed in real time and further discussed in the following publications to date. That is an increase in the atmospheric energetic pool in the form of free state. A mixing dynamic creating fluctuations in temperature patterns, and yet, denoting a constant increase in kinetic displayments.

If you are not familiarised with the previous work I hope you give it the opportunity to be taken under consideration. See full index 2013-2018 and overall conclusions at diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.

20th sept 2018 conditions of MSLP and V-Wind to be contrasted with relevant previous assessment from Oct 2016:

20th sept 2018 MSLP and V-Wind conditions. Graphic design by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. Data GFS NCEP/NOAA

October 19, 2016 Energy in our environmental systems. Follow-up on previous assessments. Matthew, Chaba and Nicole (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.16774.37443

20-oct-pmsl-chart

Similar patterns and developments are occurring as those assessed in the animations and posts shared in the previous years: Arctic dynamics are dominated by mid-latitude intrusions, where those generate displacements of Arctic masses of air into mid latitudes.  Such events create a trans-Arctic interconnectivity between Atlantic and Pacific basins, as well as influence the developments at the ITCZ.

Altogether, the general dynamics of the atmosphere would point to an increase in turbulence allowing for an expansion in altitude and latitude for the mixing ratio of different masses of air.

Accordingly, it has been discussed in this blog that such scenario would reduce the gradients of energy between atmospheric events and their surroundings.

Thus, low pressures and high pressure events would be more resilient since their surroundings would not allow for them to dissipate easily their energy. The expression of this interpretation would be seen in the form of blocking patterns and storms hovering and travelling through days over the Pacific and Atlantic.

The trans-Arctic interconnectivity between oceanic basins has happened with and without the need for a strong sign of the ENSO.

Therefore, this would suggest that exchange of masses of air between the Mid low latitudes with the Arctic, through the Polar Jet Stream, is the dominant driver in atmospheric circulation defining the behaviour of equatorial winds.

All those patterns would be fuelled by the incorporation of water vapour into an atmosphere with its energetic conductivity capacities enhanced due to an increase of GHGs and aerosols as well as by an imbalance in the energy flows part of the entire environment in all of its phases.

All the recent past and present events seem to confirm this approach and support the assessments shared throughout the line of research presented in this blog since 2013.

… see full analysis following the link at the title.

Current Conditions Sept 2018

Arctic Conditions 17 Sept 2018

Global

North Atlantic Basin. Europe

Next Animations to be seen in reference to previous assessment:

June 29, 2018 Seasonal Transitions under a New Climatic Scenario. by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18385.22881

Energetic displayments

 

Recap on previous analyses

Video animations

from the publication: Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. Posted on

More animations

Equatorial Dynamics


Previous Analyses addressing current dynamics.

The assessments presented in this line of research are not weather reports but interpretations over emerging dynamics, offering arguments and discussion addressing the lack of understanding acknowledged in academia in order to identify mechanisms giving sense to data.

(Cohen et al, 17 AUGUST 2014 DOI:10.1038/NGEO2234 “other studies on related topics, especially other observational studies, share some of the same shortcomings: lack of statistical significance, causality unclear, incomplete mechanistic understanding, and so on”)

Jennifer Francis replied to me in November 2014, “many of your statements had not yet been verified by peer-reviewed research.” What she did not say was that, implicitly in her review, there were no previous peer reviewed publications available to refute my assessments. Which means that my assessments offer unsettled and unprecedented insights applied in science.

Ultimately, under the pressure from developing a line of research without economical or institutional support, and under the absence of peer’s support, the best review I can make to validate my assessments has to be throughout the test of time.

In 2013 I began to publish assessments over climatic developments, following 4 years of weekly analyses linking real time conditions with arguments explaining those. Such activity generated a seasonal agenda linking atmospheric dynamics and particular periods of the year as part of a pattern. The main conclusion reached has been to face a pattern of change in the structure of the atmosphere and its dynamics due to an increase in atmospheric mixing, in altitude and latitude, between Equatorial and Mid-Latitudes with Arctic circulation. Neither “global” warming or cooling. Instead convective forcing dominates as an expression of the power behind an increase in atmospheric energy in free state.

While models are used to build possible scenarios on a 30 year period, the question left unaddressed is what to do about the present one. Focusing our worries onto a distant future it is easy to forget that first we need to walk the walk. And most importantly, that by leaving unattended our present we are also playing a role shaping any possible future scenario. Whatever the discussion is about multiples future scenarios, we should be able to, at least, define our present scenario in order to work with it. In my research, and throughout more than 200 analyses, I have worked in this direction.

I have described our present scenario based on consolidating theoretical arguments with real time developments. I do not know any other scenario described and published able to do that. The work already published should represent a good standing point describing a scenario to watch out and, apply those assessments to understand the current and near future developments.

Current dynamics throughout 2018 seem to support previous conclusions allowing the appearance of energetic discharges higher in latitude (Rain-Japan, Heat-Norway, …) and resilient in time (lows at Pacific basin and Atlantic Florence).

The following are extracts from previous assessments addressing current dynamics. You can read the full analysis following the links in the titles.

Arctic and Mid-Latitude Circulation.

If we consider that a butterfly can have an effect over atmospheric circulation we have to consider the interconnections between all parts of the system which generates our climate. And many of those considerations come from reassessing the impact from seeing basic principles playing with new magnitudes derived from the constant change in the composition of our environment in the solid, liquid and gaseous phases (land, atmosphere and water cycles).

One particular point of unsettled science highlighted in my research moves in opposite directionality from that interpreted by the Arctic Amplification theory.

The latest theory defends that the increase in temperature at Arctic latitudes is amplifying the effect from a global warming over mid-latitudinal circulation. My approach applies a new perspective to purpose that the atmospheric situation over the Arctic is not amplifying any process, due to its low energetic pool. Instead, the Arctic circulation is “passively” absorbing the energy carried under the influence of mid-latitudinal pressure due to hadley cell’s deformation.

Such mechanism is independent from a minor influence coming from affecting the conditions of albedo at the Arctic. In fact, albedo affects material getting radiated with the capacity to accumulate and re-emit energy. But the Arctic has an atmosphere usually dry due to its low temperatures. Therefore, the conditions of the Arctic atmosphere defining its thermal properties rely in its majority over the amount of moisture carried capable to absorb energy.

My theory (ref Oct 21, 2014, and ref Feb 2, 2015) is that the increasing warming over mid-latitudes is using water vapour as the carrier of energy incorporating it over the whole atmosphere and into Arctic latitudes. Such mechanism will increase the energy pool at the Arctic, what in other words can be seeing as an increase in temperature but also affects the resilience shown by Lows and Highs to dissipate its energy.

From the publication:

Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. (10 Feb 2015)

What I propose with my hypothesis are the mechanisms inducing to Arctic Amplification as a side effect of a wider principle. That it is a symptom and not a causation.

What I am trying to highlight in my theory are the possible mechanisms which would explain: changes in albedo which support Arctic Amplification, early snowfalls in central Asia, Arctic ice cover meltdown and oceanic increases in salinity and ultimately, the origin of atmospheric blocking patterns and the pause in T raise unified in single principle: Increasing conc. of CO2 and water vapour induce a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in the global atmospheric circulation, not only the Arctic.

From the publication:

Observed Atmospheric Dynamics. A follow-up assessment over the theory proposed on Energetic gradients by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. (29 Jan 2016) (video)

The theory of Arctic amplification applies the point of view of seeing the temperatures raising in the Arctic as a half full scenario. However, by applying the interpretation of assuming that the Arctic is one of the locations with an atmospheric volume with lowest energy content, we should look at it by how empty used to be, thus “half empty”.

The different interpretation between both scenarios bring into question the directionality on the triggers driving climatic and atmospheric events. Is it the Arctic affecting Mid-latitudinal circulation or is the other way around? So my approach into this question is simple: Where is the energy required to drive atmospheric circulation coming from? And the answer is held in the composition of the air that carry that which we measure as temperature. Albedo can make the ice to melt but can not warm up dry air. If the temperature at the Arctic circulation increases is because it carries a molecular composition which carries and retains energy. And since high temperatures over the Arctic melt ice and reduce albedo, there is less energy being radiated into the atmosphere so the temperature measured over the Arctic  has to come from circulation introduced by mid-latitudinal intrusions. But that is just the beginning of a process resultant from seeing mid latitudinal circulation invading Arctic circulation due to an overload on its energy pool. Moreover, if my take over the present developments is accurate, what comes after is what will make things interesting.

Recent developments to be considered in combination with previous assessment

A Conversation Between Joaquin and Matthew

The conditions surrounding their development share patterns and atmospheric conditions

15_16-sept-28-2016-polar-vortex-and-jet-stream-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

And those patterns and conditions have been previously addressed in this research

North Hemispheric circulation Atlantic 23 May 2016 by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

September 8, 2015 A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla).
January 13, 2016 Atmospheric Dynamics And Shapes (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
September 14, 2016 Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)

Eumetsat Natural Colour Diego FdezSevilla

________________________

12 September 2018. Also shared at LinkedIn feed Activity (link here)

Convective forcing from mid latitudes is invading the north pole forcing the displacement of cold masses into foreign territories. What began as a process marked by seasonal pulses, this year 2018 is showing to maintain momentum throughout seasons. In 2013 I began to publish assessments over climatic developments, following 4 years of weekly analyses linking real time conditions with arguments explaining those. Such activity generated a seasonal agenda linking atmospheric dynamics and particular periods of the year as part of a pattern. The main conclusion reached has been to face a pattern of change in the structure of the atmosphere and its dynamics due to an increase in atmospheric mixing, in altitude, and latitude with Arctic circulation. No global warming or cooling. In order to evaluate the validity of previous assessments I share this publication to be contrasted with current developments as an exercise of open review. Anecdotal evidence or scientific proof?

Previous related Analysis: Atmospheric Circulation and the Mixing Zone. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) *- Posted on May 26, 2016 DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.34019.04645

The pattern seen over the Iberian peninsula is a replica from previous years, with the difference in its intensity. A pattern which affects also the developments in the Itzc.

Related info on weather developments associated:

http://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/weekly-pattern-across-europe-overview-sept-3-10th/

Weekly pattern overview across Europe (Sept 3 – 10th, 2018)By SWE | Mesoscale Discussion | 03 September 2018

Here is an overview of the pattern evolution this week. Early September across our continent will be characterized by ridging over northern Europe while some more dynamic weather is expected further south across central and southern Europe. The overall pattern will bring above normal temperatures across much of our continent while below normal temperatures are likely over western Europe and the Iberian peninsula where troughs and frontal systems will be ongoing.

Some studies rely heavily on numbers. This methodology brings many restrictions. The most common comes with the ever challenging question of what it is what it should be in the X axis of any correlation. Is warm air keeping SST warm in the Arctic or the way around? Previous analyses presented in the current line of research point to atmospheric mid-latitudinal convective forcing as the major player, and current developments seem to support previous conclusions:

Arctic Conditions 3rd Sept 2018

To be contrasted with previous assessments:


30 August 2018. Also shared at LinkedIn feed Activity   link here

The Hurricane Lane arriving at Hawaii was something plausible, foreseeable and eminent. And even further than that, it might become frequent. Suggestive examples and anecdotal evidence or scientific “proof”? Image: August 2018 NH

To be contrasted with previous assessments:

Publication: Statistical Significance and The Scary Side of Being Mild (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Posted on October 9, 2017

2015 Trio Low P Pacific

Lows Pacific July 2016 Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD

One YEAR Atlantic-Pacific interconnection in atmospheric circulation by Diego Fdez-Sevilla M

Within the line of research that I have offered there is an scenario in which things are plausible with a reason. In this scenario it has become a reality to expect heat waves reaching northern latitudes as well as an increase in lightning, storminess, and strong wind episodes. All of which is part of an increase in turbulence due to mixing patterns. In the scenario presented, the synchronicity for the hurricane at Hawaii, cyclones around Japan, cold front over west Europe, monsoon at India and high temp in the Arctic has been highlighted as part of the same energetic motion, and resultant of a driver stronger than variations in sst; Convective forcing keeps dominating atmospheric circulation (ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.23043.20002)

In my line of research I have applied the idea of that a climate is made by the weather events occurring, like a forest is made by the trees populating it. If anyone wants to read more about it you can find it here:

*-Talking about climate. May 12, 2015 https://wp.me/p403AM-yO

I believe that Temperature has been a very bad parameter used to understand our atmospheric circulation when there is not consideration on that Temperature is just one form of energy. Energy which does not disappear when Temperature decreases, it gets only transformed and transported.

*-Climate. Looking at the forest for the trees April 9, 2015. https://wp.me/p403AM-wN

We can use weather patterns, being considered all together, to create a profile describing a planetary climatic system… When looking at our climate, we can try to understand it by looking at it as a whole, but also, we can look at it as the result coming from combining what represents the requirements to allow the viability for each single meteorological event, like looking at the forest for the trees.”

August 2018

Follow-up in relation with the analyses presented in the blog. See also www.severe-weather.eu for an update on current developments.

The following publications help to extend the description of a pattern involving the three dimensions of the atmosphere plus the 4th dimension (time) assessed by synchronicity and repetition throughout the years.

Some other Related Analyses:

  • * SST Anomalies and Heat Waves. Are They Not All Just Heat Displacements? (by D Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) October 16, 2015 https://wp.me/p403AM-EX
  • New insides on old concepts (by D Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) December 23, 2015 https://wp.me/p403AM-P5
  • Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by D Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) March 22, 2016 https://wp.me/p403AM-X7 
  • * Atmospheric Dynamics. Foreseeable, At The Moment. (by D Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) July 19, 2016 https://wp.me/p403AM-16P
  • * Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by D Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) December 17, 2016 https://wp.me/p403AM-1jd
  • Convective Forcing Dominates Atmospheric Circulation NH (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Posted on May 23, 2018 https://wp.me/p403AM-1UH


Weather, Climate, Energy, Environment and Man


The question  driving the whole debate on Climatic Deviations from “a Normal”, or Climatic Drift, focus most of the methodologies on temperature.

However I have followed a different approach in my analyses looking at Gradients of Energy in all its forms. That is why in 2014 I offered my thoughts as a theory of practical applications.

Energy fuels the work done by warm masses of air displacing colder masses of air in their path. That increases mixing patterns generating anomalies in temperature.

Behind an increase in the amount of work carried out by masses of air there is an increase in the energy fuelling such dynamics. Energy can only be transferred, not created or destroyed. So more work means more energy in circulation. More energy in circulation can only be sustained by a substance carrying it. Either if we consider that the energy driving anomalies comes from the Sun or from the Oceans, the carrier has to be in the atmosphere in order for the energy to produce work. And the body loosing heat cools down.

E.g. A corridor of wind over the Arctic is triggered by a conversion of Temperature into work, convection and advection, which are the result of mixing masses of air. As I have published in previous analyses, such Trans-Arctic connection between Atlantic and Pacific Basins is part of a pattern increasing the mixing ratio between masses of air otherwise separated by thermal compartmentalization, like the Polar Jet Stream. An increase in the dispersion of energetic forms have different outcomes, one of which it would be a temporary reduction in the average temperature resultant from the mixing between Cold (Arctic) and warm (Mid-Latitude) masses of air as well as in altitude (SSW).

Subsequently, “temperature” is less reliable than looking at “work” seen even in the “mild” events.

In the framework presented throughout the line of research published in this blog (and researchgate) it has been considered “Climate” as being defined by the amount of energy free to do work. In other words, energy free to promote weather events. Accordingly, in my research I define Climate by the amount and state of energy in circulation, and Weather by the use of this energy.

Consequently, with the definition applied for Climate and Weather, my definition of Climate Drift is:

“the deviation from equilibrium of the conditions allowing the perpetuity of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in a micro and macro ecosystem. This situation can be due to changes in any component of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes can be either a change in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality or rates in the flows of energy pre-established OR/AND the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components/forces and energy sinks or sources in any part of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance.”

Discussion

In my assessments I have defended that the increase in the energy pool at mid-latitudes would ultimately create an scenario with an overcharged atmosphere. That would reduce the contrasts with which to create and maintain stability in the structure required to condense energy in singular events, like hurricanes. Giving more relevance to the single contrast between Ocean/continental masses. At the same time, the opening of the Arctic circulation through a weak Jet Stream would reduce the pressure in the containment absorbing the condensation of energy at mid-latitudes, expanding into a new volume.

Accordingly, hadley circulation gets affected (see also) generating new patterns of turbulence at the ITCZ as well as it gets influenced Arctic mixing zones with lower latitudes.

In this scenario cyclones are generated under an increase in the mixing ratio of an unstable atmospheric circulation dominated by kinetic energy transferred by water vapour thanks to GHGs, and immersed in an overcharged atmosphere with no place where to diffuse its energy, becoming resilient as long as they stay over the ocean. So they endure like a piece of an ice rock in cold water.

Recent thunderstorms occurring in the Iberian Peninsula (June 2018) show to deliver an increased amount of precipitation, with a very active electric activity and persistent in duration. All the symptoms expected under the scenario described in the line of research presented.

About Sea Surface Temperatures, my assessments take SST as subsequent conditions driven by wind shear. So the interaction between masses of air in circulation allowes or inhibits SST developments. Once the scenario is built on SST this becomes a “battle field” conditioning the subsequent interaction between the following masses of air and the characteristics of the “grounds” where the game will be played (sort of speak). Like the effect of the ice conditions in an ice hockey match.

El Niño is an event which happens in a very small portion of the Earth, it is related to the temperature of a very thin layer of the Ocean in depth, a small percentage of the area occupied by the whole Oceanic masses, and even smaller when it is integrated in the multidimensional space combining Ocean and atmosphere. It is kind of intriguing to think why it has been so easy to conclude that such small portion of the entire system is driving it as a whole. It is like considering that the flowering of plants drives the seasons. Similarly it could be said about using SST at the Arctic to justify altogether; the lack of ice, warmer temperatures at tropospheric level and even at stratospheric level. There is not enough energy in the SST of such small area as it is the Arctic to justify all those convective dynamics.

(March 22, 2016 Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1968.5521).

Statistical Significance. The Scary Side of Being Mild (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.21934.61767

In my research I have been very persistent trying to highlight how much relevance it is given to a small area in size and depth driving global circulation as it is the SST at the Eq Pacific while an area of the same size and even more depth could be identified in the Amazon or by the change suffered in Land cover by agriculture at global scale.

We have to consider that SST are measured in the 5 or less m of the Ocean meanwhile Forests can occupy more than 15 meters in depth. And both are sources of the latent heat carried out in the atmosphere which fuels convective dynamics dominating intrusions over the Arctic.

Analyses which I published in my line of research some time ago studying the impact from changes in Land cover over atmospheric dynamics:

  • April 23, 2015 Matching Features Between Land Surface and Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20035.30247. https://wp.me/p403AM-xK 
  • June 10, 2016 The Butterfly Effect on Arctic Circulation. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) https://wp.me/p403AM-12H

The analyses performed in my line of research describe a Climatic Drift, from pre-established atmospheric conditions strongly compartmentalised in Altitude and Latitude, towards a Climatic Regime characterised by an instability originated by patterns of Trans-latitudinal and Vertical mixing. An increase in atmospheric motion inducing sudden and extreme changes in atmospheric conditions generating weather events with abnormal properties for a particular location, throughout latitudes, longitudes and altitudes.

Einstein and his developments were mainly applied in physics due to the use that it was made of his work with the aim to manipulate energy in times of conflict, or to understand space. The equation is simple E=mc2. The language of physics has dominated the discussion over physical developments since then and it has been established as the logical translation of climatic developments. However, in the current times, the role of scientific understanding demands to move beyond the barriers of language, either between semantic cultural languages and between disciplines.

Being myself a Biologist involved in Atmospheric dynamics applying physics to explain such a complex subject as it is climatic evolution might seem like the tale of the child claiming that the Emperor has no clothes.

And yet, it seems to me evident that a thermodynamic system as it is our planet, can not scape from the most basic and powerful understanding of our contemporary scientific evolution. If E=MC2, and the anthropogenic activity is increasing the transformation of M into Energy in the system (from burning Mass from fossils and vegetable components, as well as by liberating other forms of energy such as gravimetric in Dams, Solar, transformation of raw materials, etc,) such transformation rate will move the balance in the thermodynamic behaviour of the whole system, and the rate of such deviation from equilibrium will be related with the speed at which the transformation rate between E/M is performed: M>(c)2

Conclusions

The main conclusion from more than 200 analyses and discussions researching synergistic interactions between all transformations seen over the Liquid, Gaseous and solid phases of our global Environment indicates that anthropogenic activity is forcing our environment into A System Becoming Dominated By Free Energy. (DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18509.13289)

The biotic component of our environmental system is the only one capable of interacting against thermodynamic entropy, against instability. And for as long as Human activity can not replicate such mechanisms in equilibrium with the resources consumed, it might be time to think about domesticating Human Activities instead of following the obsession for Domesticating Natural Behaviour and Geoengineer our Weather. 

Overall Conclusions

An increase in the amount of energy being in “free” state means that kinetic processes will increasingly dominate thermodynamic processes, inducing a transition in our Seasonal and Climatic regimes from being driven by Orbital Positioning to be driven by more erratic Kinetic processes.

Full index at diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com and ResearchGate.net


After leaving months, even years of time to expose my conclusions for public discussion and review, once those have no faced any criticism or arguments refuting their value, I create a pdf file and a DOI publishing them at my profile in Researchgate. In order to maintain their genuineness and legitimate innovative nature, I keep its original state so those can be compared with any copy made by any third party at any time. For your own references and review over its originality over time with respect to other publications via scientific papers and/or news reports, you can compare the publications at the blog and researchgate with the records archived:

About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Data policy The products processed by "Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD" are made available to the public for educational and/or scientific purposes, without any fee on the condition that you credit "Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD" as the source. Copyright notice: © Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD 2013-2019 orcid: orcid.org/0000-0001-8685-0206 and the link to its source at diegofdezsevilla.wordpress or permanent DOI found at Reearchgate. Should you write any scientific publication on the results of research activities that use Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD products as input, you shall acknowledge the Diego Fdez-Sevilla's PhD Project in the text of the publication and provide an electronic copy of the publication (d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com). If you wish to use the Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD products in advertising or in any commercial promotion, you shall acknowledge the Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Project and you must submit the layout to Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD for approval beforehand (d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com). The work here presented has no economic or institutional support. Please consider to make a donation to support the means for making sustainable the energy, time and resources required. Also any sponsorship or mentoring interested would be welcome. Intellectual Property This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! For those publications missing at the ResearchGate profile vinculated with this project DOIs can be generated on demand by request at email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com. **Author´s profile: Born in 1974. Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my work previous to 2013 as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After 12 years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, in 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my own line of research. In the current competitive scenario, in order to demonstrate my capacities instead of just moving my cv waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I decided to invest my energy and time in opening my own line of research sharing it in this blog. In March 2017 the budget reserved for this project has ended and its weekly basis time frame discontinued until new forms of economic and/or institutional support are incorporated into the project. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this platform and at LinkedIn has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my achievements and that the Intellectual Property Rights generated with the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in similar lines of research. **Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome as well as any approach exploring professional opportunities.** In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2019, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects, don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access and DOIs found at the Framework and Timeline page and ResearchGate. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2018. Filling in or/and Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/ ***
This entry was posted in Energy Balance, Extreme climatic events, Filling in, Water vapour and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to Follow-up on previous assessments 17Sept 2018. About resilient Florence, super typhoon Mangkhut at West Pacific and Atlantic northward Tropical storm Helene. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD

  1. Pingback: Rayleigh–Taylor instabilities in Atmospheric Circulation. Follow-Up on Atmospheric Dynamics and Climatic Implications (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

  2. 7Sept 2019 Follow-up at Linkedin share:
    https://www.linkedin.com/posts/diegofernandezsevilla_climatechange-diegofdezsevilla-globalmixing-activity-6576165250134007808-SbSe
    Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D.
    Environmental Analyst (diegofdezsevilla.wordpress) orcid.org/0000-0001-8685-0206
    23h
    Looking at Temperature anomalies is not enough to define a climate change for a thermodynamic system. Temperature is what happens when something else is changing. Such concept brings new meaning to all observable dynamics in our atmosphere. It is not what is going to happen but what is that has already happened that makes our temperature regimes to call our attention. In my research I am trying to showcase how such approach makes observable events more than simple anecdotal evidences or subjective proof. The following publication from Sept2018 addressed this concept to analyse hurricane season, and by similarities, I want to recall on it for you to contrast its validity against current dynamics.
    September 17, 2018 Follow-up on previous assessments 17Sept 2018. About resilient Florence, super typhoon Mangkhut at West Pacific and Atlantic northward Tropical storm Helene. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Available in pdf with DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.32512.48641
    https://wp.me/p403AM-21G
    #climatechange #diegofdezsevilla #globalmixing

    Like

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