Temp Displacements. Solid Water In A Dessert Which Is Not At The Poles. (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)
(updated 10 Jan 2017 adding intro and imagery)
On December 19 2016, Snow covered the sand in the small Saharan desert town of Ain Sefra, Algeria. This scene was rare enough to call the attention of many but it was considered an isolated event with no casualties.
Through the second and third weeks of January 2017 an intense cold wave runs through much of Europe and has caused more than 20 deaths in recent days in countries such as Italy, Poland, Turkey, Greece and even Russia, where temperatures unseen have been recorded this weekend for more than one century ago, which have fallen below 30 degrees below zero.
January 9, 2017, EFE
Italy has registered eight people on Saturday due to the low temperatures, is still on alert due to the cold wave that affects the whole territory, although with special intensity in the centre and south of the country, where the communications by road and train suffer the consequences.
In the capital, Rome, the temperature at midday was only two degrees Celsius, and under a cloudy sky, the feeling of cold is greater by the wind gusts, a situation that kept the water frozen in some of the fountains more known, such as those of Piazza Navona, the Trevi Fountain or Piazza Barberini.
In Poland, temperatures of up to minus 25 degrees Celsius have been recorded, and the number of deaths in Poland from cold since November rises to 65, a figure to which is added another 24 deaths from inhalation of carbon monoxide emitted by the stoves they used to heat up.
In Germany, snowfalls and the presence of ice on streets and roads have held a sword over large areas of the country head, where have been several accidents as a result of weather, according to the police.
The German Climate Institute (DWD) warned that today the ice will continue in the streets in some parts of the west and centre of the country and recommended to the citizens not to leave their homes to the extent possible.
Temperatures have fallen below 30 degrees below zero these days in the European part of Russia. Last night, in the city of Klin, about 100 kilometers north of Moscow, the thermometers recorded a minimum temperature of 35.9 degrees below zero and in Moscow on Saturday they were 29 degrees below zero, the lowest temperature in a 7 January in more than one hundred years.
Today about 12,000 people were without heating in the city of Krasnogorsk, in the outside Moscow, with temperatures of 25 degrees below zero.
In Greece, the cold wave that has hit the country for three days, with freezing temperatures and heavy snow, has left two dead so far.
In the islands of Skopelos, where the level of snowfall reached one meter, and Alonisos, where it reached two meters, was declared a state of emergency during the day today, while mobility in both territories of the central Aegean is almost impossible.
The second city of the country, Thessaloniki, suffered the consequences of the storm, as hundreds of homes and businesses are still without water because of the ice.
On the island of Lesbos, the Moria refugee camp was completely snowed, where NGOs complain that the Athens authorities do not provide adequate means for migrants to warm up.
In Albania, two homeless people have also died from the cold, while tens of villages in the north and east have been blocked by snow.
In Turkey, heavy snowfall and bad weather have forced the Turkish flag company Turkish Airlines to cancel 633 domestic and international flights in Turkey, especially in Istanbul, tomorrow and tomorrow.
From my research (published in this blog) I see for the NH this episode of cold displacement into southern latitudes similarly to as heat waves moving into high latitudes.
|October 16, 2015||SST Anomalies and Heat Waves. Are They Not All Just Heat Displacements? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)|
The similarities are that both are events showing temp displacements in latitude (I have extensively written about it).
|May 14, 2015||A roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)|
Both displacements are driven by kinetic dynamics.
|August 6, 2015||Atmospheric Composition and Thermal Conductivity. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)|
Those kinetic dynamics have been normally associated with orbital seasonality (sun’s radiation intensity).
|December 22, 2016||Worst than a change is a pattern of no change ( by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)|
In periods of enough Solar intensity, heat waves predominate from equator towards the pole.
Altogether these transitions were part of a latitudinal transition associated with the variations in the position of the polar jet stream.
What I interpret from the current dynamics is that, in one hand, the association of orbital seasonality with kinetic seasonality is changing (or it has already and keeps that way “without a change despite ENSO variations”).
The patterns of cold developments associated with latitudinal extension of polar influence has been transformed in longitudinal displacements of masses of air due to a weak polar jet stream creating “pockets” or “drops” of weather where ever they move (see more posts on this at the category “jet stream and polar vortex”):
Such circumstance has allowed warmer than normal temp in high latitudes meanwhile lower than normal temp are reached from polar displacements into lower latitudes.
The latest consequence of this change in dynamics comes in the form of changing the level of dominance for the orbital driven temp seasonality influence over the kinetic driven due to the thermal energy contained within the atmosphere.
This change in latitudinal exchange has modified the compartmentalization of Hadley cells as well as it has increased the mixing ratio resulting in warmer than normal anomalies between latitudes at surface level and in altitude.
All of which it might extend the confusion among those looking “dominantly” at the variations in global temperatures since as a result of the new dynamics, the average temp resultant from displacing cold masses of air from the Arctic will force a momentary global average constrain in the raise of temperatures at global average scale.
|February 10, 2015||(UPGRADED 24th March2015) Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla.|
|May 6, 2016||Climate and Hadley Circulation. Research Update May 2016 (by Diego Fdez-sevilla)|
We have seen temperatures raising at the Arctic before, and based on my previous research, it is not a surprise to see them raising again. What makes the difference is, in one hand, the paths followed. But also, there is as much relevance in identifying the characteristics of the scenarios which those masses of air create in their path (snow fall, drop in temperatures, flash floods, wind gusts, …) as the scenarios which are being generated by other masses of air occupying the space which those masses of air leave available.
There are other properties for the air to be monitored besides only temperature, which are dictating the interaction between the atmosphere and the superficial state of our environments. In the following graph we can see in the left side the distribution of temp at 2m for the 29 Dec 2016. In the right side the state for the ice and snow cover over the Arctic. The image in the middle represents the state of the atmosphere at 2m defining thermodynamically the tendency for water to be in solid or liquid phase. (look for options over the image to open in a new window and enlarge. In order to defend my Intellectual rights I would discuss my methodology to define such conditions by email previous a formal identification d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com).
The dynamics observed in the cold wave described through the present January 2017 by the displacement in the masses of air for the NH seems to maintain a pattern described in previous assessments published in the line of research presented in this blog.
Please look at the state of the present anomalies of temp and the animation published in a previous assessment.
The dynamics extending kinetic forcing towards the poles seems to be also present behind the developments seen in the Antarctic:
- Previous publication in the line of research published in this blog:
- Actual state of the Antarctic Sea:
Antarctica’s fourth biggest ice shelf is on the verge of collapse
Author’s Disclosure Declaration
For those unaware of the content offered in this blog I might have to issue a warning: Handle with care. Also with the product obtained from scientific analytical thinking there are traces of personal and professional “passion”, by-products obtained from “original and unpeered grey matter juice” originated from “independent critical thinking”. Also sometimes the packaging might be rough around the edges due to its “unfunded nature”.
4 years ago I joined a discussion which made me realise how much knowledge was settled on the past, built upon past conventions and unable to give answers about present developments in all parts of our environment. From the impact from GMOs, plastics, soils degradation, atmospheric composition, land use and cover, water cycles, … I had addressed scientifically unanswered questions before doing my PhD so I decided to give it a go and to offer my take over those gaps. It has been a pilgrimage to become aware of how much faith and fear is put on scientific publishing above raw understanding and discussion.
I do not know how far this blog will go, however, it represents the assessment of a global process and I expect that past posts will become a description of continuous present for the next years.
Altogether, the body of work which represents the line of research presented in this blog is composed by more than 170 pieces, covering data analyses and conceptual discussions. All those different discussions and assessments presented here build together a single concept. The format applied is the result of making a big effort trying to apply simplistic approaches with the aim to allow a multidisciplinary access. Since the topics treated in my publications have implications for many sectors in the academic and not academic world, with the aim of allowing my research for open review, there is also the objective of allowing access to a multisectorial and multidisciplinary audience sharing interest.
Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.
For a more profound discussion over my assessments and analyses as well as constructive feedback, please use my email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com.
My agenda is simple, I am in transition looking for either funding to grow the research published in this blog or for a job position in any field in which my assets are valued. Behind my research there is nothing more, nothing else than to showcase my capabilities doing what I like, research. I am a methodologist. I don´t look at the color of the result obtained, only at the suitability of the method and the coherence of the result. As I have said before, if I am wrong on my assessments and conclusions, it will be better for all, and my work would showcase my capabilities anyway. A CV shines the goals obtained by anyone, but by publishing here my research, I expose myself and my work to public judgement. There is a difference between being naive and raw. If you see the difference you will understand better my work and my personal position.
The aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. So any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time of at least a month from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found refuting the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.
In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com
If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will help me in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.
(This post is part of a more complex piece of independent research. I don´t have funding, political agenda or publishing revenues from visits. Any scientist working in disciplines related with the topics that I treat in my blog knows how to judge the contribution that my work could potentially add to the state of knowledge. Since I am in transition looking for a position in research, if you are one of those scientists, by just acknowledging any value you might see from my contribution, would not only make justice to my effort as independent researcher, but ultimately, it will help me to enhance my chances to find a position with resources to further develop my work.
I believe that the hypothesis that I have presented in previous posts in this blog (here, here and here) could help to understand present and possible future scenarios in atmospheric circulation. However, this is an assessment based on observation which needs to be validated throughout open discussion and data gathering. So please feel free to incorporate your thoughts and comments in a constructive manner.
If you feel like sharing this post I would appreciate to have a reference about the place or platform, by private or public message, in order for me to have the opportunity to join the debate and be aware of the repercussion which might generate d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com
This work is protected under Intellectual Property laws licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.)
Since October 2013 I have been publishing pieces of research studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.
Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License, WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.
More assessments presenting chronologically the line of research published in this blog can be accessed in the category Framework and Timeline.
For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out, updated 09th Dec 2016):
- New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on October 21, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-k3
- Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on November 14, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-mt
- State of the Polar Vortex. Broken? From 29 Nov 2014 to 5th Jan 2015 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla). Posted on November 29, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-o7
- Gathering data to make visible the invisible (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on December 22, 2014. http://wp.me/p403AM-pN
- Probability in the atmospheric circulation dictating the Weather (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on January 15, 2015. http://wp.me/p403AM-rm
- Meteorological Outlook Feb 2015 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on February 7, 2015. http://wp.me/p403AM-sU
- Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Posted on February 10, 2015. http://wp.me/p403AM-to
- Drops of Weather. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 7, 2015
- Steering climate´s course (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 27, 2015
- Climate. Looking at the forest for the trees (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 9, 2015
- Matching Features Between Land Surface and Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 23, 2015
- Domesticating Nature. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 7, 2015
- A roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 14, 2015
- Talking about climate (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 12, 2015
- News from an Ecosystem (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 20, 2015
- In climate it is becoming Less probable to not have a High probability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 29, 2015
- Drinking from the source (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 5, 2015
- Communication takes more than just publishing thoughts. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 9, 2015
- Extreme climatic events, implications for projections of species distributions and ecosystem structure (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 18, 2015
- The scope of Environmental Science and scientific thought. From Thought-driven to Data-driven, from Critical Thinking to Data Management. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 26, 2015
- Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Drift. Are we there yet? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 2, 2015
- Lateral thinking. From Micro to Macro (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 4, 2015
- Something for the curious minds. Climate and Streamlines (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 17, 2015
- Solar Activity and Human Activity, Settling Their Environmental Liability. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)July 24, 2015
- Atmospheric composition and thermal conductivity? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)August 6, 2015
- Latitudinal barriers and typhoons (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)August 13, 2015
- The Earth is Ticking (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)August 20, 2015
- What if, the relevant bit lies hidden on identifying the pattern behind similarities instead of trying to match anomalies? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)September 3, 2015
- A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla).September 8, 2015
- Sensing Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)September 22, 2015
- InFormAtion. The “Act” of “Giving Form” to “Knowledge” (by Diego fdez-Sevilla)September 30, 2015
- Arctic Intake of Water Vapour (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 7, 2015
- SST Anomalies and Heat Waves. Are They Not All Just Heat Displacements? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 16, 2015
- Discussing Climatic Teleconnections. Follow Up On My Previous Research (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 21, 2015
- Follow-up on Arctic circulation 30 Oct 2015 ( by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)October 30, 2015
- There is Ice or Frost In Antarctica? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)November 5, 2015
- Starts Raining Drops of Winter at Mid-Latitudes. The new Autumn? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)November 10, 2015
- Press release. Ask NASA (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)November 12, 2015
- Following the Behaviour of the Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)November 19, 2015
- What Is Wrong With The Concept “Bio”? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)November 26, 2015
- Energy. Looking For Sources of Something We Waste. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)December 3, 2015
- SOILS. The Skeleton Holding The Muscle On Our Ecosystems (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)December 9, 2015
- Could It Be El Niño The New “Wolf” Coming? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)December 11, 2015
- Climate and weather December 2015. Another Polar Vortex another Heat Wave? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)December 18, 2015
- New insides on old concepts (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)December 23, 2015
- Atmospheric Dynamics And Shapes (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)January 13, 2016
- European weather. Old News, Same News? by Diego Fdez-SevillaJanuary 15, 2016
- Observational events on atmospheric dynamics. A follow-up assessment over the theory proposed over Energetic gradients by Diego Fdez-Sevilla.January 29, 2016
- North American Weather. Old News, Same News? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)January 20, 2016
- Observed Atmospheric Dynamics. A follow-up assessment over the theory proposed on Energetic gradients by Diego Fdez-Sevilla.January 29, 2016
- (updated 11-18 Feb2016) Polar Vortex, Old News, Same News? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)February 4, 2016
- Forecasting Past Events. Snow Coming to Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)February 12, 2016
- Do You Believe in the Value of Your Work? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)February 23, 2016
- Forecasts For Ecosystems (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)February 25, 2016
- Seasonality Spring 2016. Continuous follow-up on my previous research assessing atmospheric dynamics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 3, 2016
- Tangled in Words. Atmospheric Dynamics, Stefan Boltzmann Calculations and Energy Balance (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 10, 2016
- Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 22, 2016
- Plant growth, CO2, Soil and Nutrients. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)March 31, 2016
- Atmospheric Dynamics, GHG’s, Thermal Conductivity and Polar Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 6, 2016
- Feedback. Have Your Say. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 14, 2016
- Plant an Idea and Then a Tree… But Which Ones? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 22, 2016
- (updated 28/April/2016) Severe weather warning 27 April 2016 USA (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)April 28, 2016
- Research Update May 2016 (by Diego Fdez-sevilla)May 6, 2016
- Scientifically Challenged (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 12, 2016
- Another roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 13, 2015May 13, 2016
- Our Environment. One Vision and Many Thoughts. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 20, 2016
- Atmospheric Circulation and the Mixing Zone. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)May 26, 2016
- When Temperature Becomes Something Else (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) May 30, 2016
- Settled Science (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 9, 2016
- The Butterfly Effect on Arctic Circulation. (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla)June 10, 2016
- Who has the right and the responsibility to discuss Climate as a topic of debate? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)June 20, 2016
- Snap shot of a day 22 June 2016. Follow-up on previous research over atmospheric dynamics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)June 22, 2016
- Atmospheric mixing. Indian Basin June 2016 (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)July 1, 2016
- Research From The Bench (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) July 6, 2016
- Every Little Counts (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) July 13, 2016
- Dream Your Way Out (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) July 15, 2016
- Atmospheric Dynamics. Foreseeable, At The Moment. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) July 19, 2016
- The Colour of Intelligence (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) July 20, 2016
- Climbing The Hill Of Development (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) July 27, 2016
- Climbing the Hill of Acknowledgement. Peer reviewed articles supporting previous assessments and research published in this blog. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) July 28, 2016
- Environmental Questions and Answers for Petrol Fans (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) August 2, 2016
- What is on the menu? “Plastic” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) August 4, 2016
- The Compartmentalization of Evolution (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) August 5, 2016
- Ups and Downs on Climatic Assessments. A Matter of Multiple Perspectives from the Same Point of View (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) August 12, 2016
- Climate. The Long Distance Between Science And Politics. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) August 21, 2016
- Aug 2016 Follow-up on previous assessments. Atmospheric Dynamics, Temperature Displacements, Atmospheric Mixing (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) August 26, 2016
- Climate Drift, The True Meaning of Things and the Drift of Those. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) September 2, 2016
- Summer is what summer brings (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) September 5, 2016
- In Climate, Too Many Strange Things Are Happening (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) September 6, 2016
- Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) September 14, 2016
- Solar Forcing in Our Climatic and Atmospheric Dynamics. Location, Location, Location (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) September 22, 2016
- Forecasting Past Events In Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) October 1, 2016
- Equatorial Dynamics. A conversation between Joaquin and Matthew (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) October 7, 2016
- Global Mixing in Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.) October 13, 2016
- Energy in our environmental systems. Follow-up on previous assessments. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) October 19, 2016
- Another Heat Wave Another Polar Vortex II … Broken (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) October 25, 2016
- Autumn and the NH Polar Jet Stream (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) October 27, 2016
- Forecast Unusual (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) November 4, 2016
- Climate. Too Simple To Be It (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) November 7, 2016
- Cyclonic Alignment Towards the Arctic (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) November 10, 2016
- Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.) November 17, 2016
- Atmospheric Thermal Conductance (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) November 25, 2016
- Just Thinking on Climate (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) November 30, 2016
- So Many Questions, We Have Stopped Asking New Ones. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) December 7, 2016
- RECAP 9Dec16 on previous assessments (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) December 9, 2016
- Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) December 17, 2016
- Wind conditions 250 hPa Jet Stream. What a Mess. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) December 20, 2016
- Worst than a change is a pattern of no change ( by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) December 22, 2016
- Orbital Melting vs Kinetic Melting (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) December 30, 2016
- The value of having a point of view (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) January 5, 2017
- Temp Displacements. Solid Water In A Dessert Which Is Not At The Poles. (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) January 9, 2017