Temp Displacements. Solid Water In A Dessert Which Is Not At The Poles. (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)


Temp Displacements. Solid Water In A Dessert Which Is Not At The Poles. (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)

(updated 10 Jan 2017 adding intro and imagery)

snow covering the sand in the small Saharan desert town of Ain Sefra, Algeria, on December 19

Snow covering the sand in the small Saharan desert town of Ain Sefra, Algeria, on December 19 2016. From indiatimes.com

Intro

On December 19 2016, Snow covered the sand in the small Saharan desert town of Ain Sefra, Algeria. This scene was rare enough to call the attention of many but it was considered an isolated event with no casualties.

Through the second and third weeks of January 2017 an intense cold wave runs through much of Europe and has caused more than 20 deaths in recent days in countries such as Italy, Poland, Turkey, Greece and even Russia, where temperatures unseen have been recorded this weekend for more than one century ago, which have fallen below 30 degrees below zero.

January 9, 2017, EFE

Italy

Italy has registered eight people on Saturday due to the low temperatures, is still on alert due to the cold wave that affects the whole territory, although with special intensity in the centre and south of the country, where the communications by road and train suffer the consequences.

In the capital, Rome, the temperature at midday was only two degrees Celsius, and under a cloudy sky, the feeling of cold is greater by the wind gusts, a situation that kept the water frozen in some of the fountains more known, such as those of Piazza Navona, the Trevi Fountain or Piazza Barberini.

Poland

In Poland, temperatures of up to minus 25 degrees Celsius have been recorded, and the number of deaths in Poland from cold since November rises to 65, a figure to which is added another 24 deaths from inhalation of carbon monoxide emitted by the stoves they used to heat up.

Germany

In Germany, snowfalls and the presence of ice on streets and roads have held a sword over large areas of the country head, where have been several accidents as a result of weather, according to the police.

The German Climate Institute (DWD) warned that today the ice will continue in the streets in some parts of the west and centre of the country and recommended to the citizens not to leave their homes to the extent possible.

Russia

Temperatures have fallen below 30 degrees below zero these days in the European part of Russia. Last night, in the city of Klin, about 100 kilometers north of Moscow, the thermometers recorded a minimum temperature of 35.9 degrees below zero and in Moscow on Saturday they were 29 degrees below zero, the lowest temperature in a 7 January in more than one hundred years.

Today about 12,000 people were without heating in the city of Krasnogorsk, in the outside Moscow, with temperatures of 25 degrees below zero.

Greece

In Greece, the cold wave that has hit the country for three days, with freezing temperatures and heavy snow, has left two dead so far.

In the islands of Skopelos, where the level of snowfall reached one meter, and Alonisos, where it reached two meters, was declared a state of emergency during the day today, while mobility in both territories of the central Aegean is almost impossible.

The second city of the country, Thessaloniki, suffered the consequences of the storm, as hundreds of homes and businesses are still without water because of the ice.

On the island of Lesbos, the Moria refugee camp was completely snowed, where NGOs complain that the Athens authorities do not provide adequate means for migrants to warm up.

Albania

In Albania, two homeless people have also died from the cold, while tens of villages in the north and east have been blocked by snow.

Turkey

In Turkey, heavy snowfall and bad weather have forced the Turkish flag company Turkish Airlines to cancel 633 domestic and international flights in Turkey, especially in Istanbul, tomorrow and tomorrow.

Discussion

From my research (published in this blog) I see for the NH this episode of cold displacement into southern latitudes similarly to as heat waves moving into high latitudes.

October 16, 2015 SST Anomalies and Heat Waves. Are They Not All Just Heat Displacements? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)

The similarities are that both are events showing temp displacements in latitude (I have extensively written about it).

May 14, 2015 A roller-coaster of temperatures in South Europe. Spain (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)

Both displacements are driven by kinetic dynamics.

August 6, 2015 Atmospheric Composition and Thermal Conductivity. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)

Those kinetic dynamics have been normally associated with orbital seasonality (sun’s radiation intensity).

Worst than a change is a pattern of no change ( by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)

Earth_seasons

In periods of enough Solar intensity, heat waves predominate from equator towards the pole.

FRAME_OIS_RGB-airmass-westernEurope_1510301600

Airmass 30 Oct 2015. Eumetsat.

1st week monthly intervals Temp Anomaly Wester Europe 2015 by Diego Fdez-SevillaMeanwhile, cold displacements into low latitudes are predominant in winter when the solar intensity is lower.

BBC news Spain Winter 2015 Diego Fdez-Sevilla

Altogether these transitions were part of a latitudinal transition associated with the variations in the position of the polar jet stream.

What I interpret from the current dynamics is that, in one hand, the association of orbital seasonality with kinetic seasonality is changing (or it has already and keeps that way “without a change despite ENSO variations”).

The patterns of cold developments associated with latitudinal extension of polar influence has been transformed in longitudinal displacements of masses of air due to a weak polar jet stream creating “pockets” or “drops” of weather where ever they move (see more posts on this at the category “jet stream and polar vortex”):

Europe Forecast Temp 500 Diego Fdez-Sevilla

Europe 20 Aug 2015 drops-of-weather-sept-2016-diegto-fdez-sevilla-phd

Such circumstance has allowed warmer than normal temp in high latitudes meanwhile lower than normal temp are reached from polar displacements into lower latitudes.

gfs-nh-temp-2m-anom-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

The latest consequence of this change in dynamics comes in the form of changing the level of dominance for the orbital driven temp seasonality influence over the kinetic driven due to the thermal energy contained within the atmosphere.

jan-9_2017-ecmwft0-850-hpa-temp-500-geopotential-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

ECMWF. Geopotential 500 hPa and temperature at 850 hPa on Monday Jan 9, 2017.

GFS forecast from Jan 10 2017 for 500 hPa Geopotential. Wetterzentrale.

ECMWF

ECMWF. Forecast from Jan 10 2017 for 500 hPa Geopotential. Wetterzentrale.

blog-jan-10-2017-gfs-europe-200-mb-streamlines-diego-fdez-sevilla-phdblog-jan-10-europe-500-mb-heights-vorticity-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

MSLP Jan 10 2017 Europe

MSLP Jan 10 2017 Europe

Precipitable Water Jan 10 2017.

Precipitable Water Jan 10 2017.

This change in latitudinal exchange has modified the compartmentalization of Hadley cells as well as it has increased the mixing ratio resulting in warmer than normal anomalies between latitudes at surface level and in altitude.

blog-temp-jan-10-forecast-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

10dec7jan17-temp50anim 11-dec-7-jan17temp10animAll of which it might extend the confusion among those looking “dominantly” at the variations in global temperatures since as a result of the new dynamics, the average temp resultant from displacing cold masses of air from the Arctic will force a momentary global average constrain in the raise of temperatures at global average scale.

February 10, 2015 (UPGRADED 24th March2015) Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla.
May 6, 2016 Climate and Hadley Circulation. Research Update May 2016 (by Diego Fdez-sevilla)

Cyclones diagram

We have seen temperatures raising at the Arctic before, and based on my previous research, it is not a surprise to see them raising again. What makes the difference is, in one hand, the paths followed. But also, there is as much relevance in identifying the characteristics of the scenarios which those masses of air create in their path (snow fall, drop in temperatures, flash floods, wind gusts, …)  as the scenarios which are being generated by other masses of air occupying the space which those masses of air leave available.

GFS model Init Jan10 2017 500 hPa Geopot

GFS model Init Jan10 2017 500 hPa Geopot

There are other properties for the air to be monitored besides only temperature, which are dictating the interaction between the atmosphere and the superficial state of our environments. In the following graph we can see in the left side the distribution of temp at 2m for the 29 Dec 2016. In the right side the state for the ice and snow cover over the Arctic. The image in the middle represents the state of the atmosphere at 2m defining thermodynamically the tendency for water to be in solid or liquid phase. (look for options over the image to open in a new window and enlarge. In order to defend my Intellectual rights I would discuss my methodology to define such conditions by email previous a formal identification d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com).

29-dec16-by-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

The dynamics observed in the cold wave described through the present January 2017 by the displacement in the masses of air for the NH seems to maintain a pattern described in previous assessments published in the line of research presented in this blog.

Please look at the state of the present anomalies of temp and the animation published in a previous assessment.

jan-8-temp-anom

Global Mixing in Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.)

Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)

The dynamics extending kinetic forcing towards the poles seems to be also present behind the developments seen in the Antarctic:

  • Previous publication in the line of research published in this blog:

There is Ice or Frost In Antarctica? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) 5 Nov 2015

  • Actual state of the Antarctic Sea:

Antarctica’s fourth biggest ice shelf is on the verge of collapse


Author’s Disclosure Declaration

For those unaware of the content offered in this blog I might have to issue a warning: Handle with care. Also with the product obtained from scientific analytical thinking there are traces of personal and professional “passion”, by-products obtained from “original and unpeered grey matter juice” originated from “independent critical thinking”. Also sometimes the packaging might be rough around the edges due to its “unfunded nature”.

4 years ago I joined a discussion which made me realise how much knowledge was settled on the past, built upon past conventions and unable to give answers about present developments in all parts of our environment. From the impact from GMOs, plastics, soils degradation, atmospheric composition, land use and cover, water cycles, … I had addressed scientifically unanswered questions before doing my PhD so I decided to give it a go and to offer my take over those gaps. It has been a pilgrimage to become aware of how much faith and fear is put on scientific publishing above raw understanding and discussion.

I do not know how far this blog will go, however, it represents the assessment of a global process and I expect that past posts will become a description of continuous present for the next years.

Altogether, the body of work which represents the line of research presented in this blog is composed by more than 170 pieces, covering data analyses and conceptual discussions. All those different discussions and assessments presented here build together a single concept. The format applied is the result of making a big effort trying to apply simplistic approaches with the aim to allow a multidisciplinary access. Since the topics treated in my publications have implications for many sectors in the academic and not academic world, with the aim of allowing my research for open review, there is also the objective of allowing access to a multisectorial and multidisciplinary audience sharing interest.

Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.

For a more profound discussion over my assessments and analyses as well as constructive feedback, please use my email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com.

My agenda is simple, I am in transition looking for either funding to grow the research published in this blog or for a job position in any field in which my assets are valued. Behind my research there is nothing more, nothing else than to showcase my capabilities doing what I like, research. I am a methodologist. I don´t look at the color of the result obtained, only at the suitability of the method and the coherence of the result. As I have said before, if I am wrong on my assessments and conclusions, it will be better for all, and my work would showcase my capabilities anyway. A CV shines the goals obtained by anyone, but by publishing here my research, I expose myself and my work to public judgement. There is a difference between being naive and raw. If you see the difference you will understand better my work and my personal position.

The aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. So any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time of at least a month from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found refuting the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.

In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will help me in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.

Perspective

(This post is part of a more complex piece of independent research. I don´t have funding, political agenda or publishing revenues from visits. Any scientist working in disciplines related with the topics that I treat in my blog knows how to judge the contribution that my work could potentially add to the state of knowledge. Since I am in transition looking for a position in research, if you are one of those scientists, by just acknowledging any value you might see from my contribution, would not only make justice to my effort as independent researcher, but ultimately, it will help me to enhance my chances to find a position with resources to further develop my work.

I believe that the hypothesis that I have presented in previous posts in this blog (here, here and here) could help to understand present and possible future scenarios in atmospheric circulation. However, this is an assessment based on observation which needs to be validated throughout open discussion and data gathering. So please feel free to incorporate your thoughts and comments in a constructive manner.

If you feel like sharing this post I would appreciate to have a reference about the place or platform, by private or public message, in order for me to have the opportunity to join the debate and be aware of the repercussion which might generate d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

This work is protected under Intellectual Property laws licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.)

Since October 2013 I have been publishing pieces of research studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.

Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License,  WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.

More assessments presenting chronologically the line of research published in this blog can be accessed in the category Framework and Timeline.

For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out, updated 09th Dec 2016):

Advertisements

About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Citing This Site "Title", published online "Month"+"Year", retrieved on "Month""Day", "Year" from http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my previous work as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After couple of years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, I find myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my research. In the present competitive scenario, instead of just moving my cv and wait for my next opportunity to arrive, I have decided to invest also my energy and time in opening my own line of research showing what I am capable of. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this blog has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my work and the intellectual rights represented by the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in this line of research. Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome. In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2017, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2017. Filling in or Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at http://www.diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/
This entry was posted in Energy Balance, Extreme climatic events, Filling in, Polar vortex and Jet Stream, Water vapour and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to Temp Displacements. Solid Water In A Dessert Which Is Not At The Poles. (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)

  1. Pingback: Breaking Stereotypes Assessing Climatic Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

  2. Pingback: Video Animation. Building A Point of View Over Environmental Assessments by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s