Equatorial Dynamics. A conversation between Joaquin and Matthew (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

Posted on October 7, 2016 by

Equatorial Dynamics. A Conversation Between Joaquin and Matthew (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. CV english and español. Resume.

(Pdf available at Researchgate File name: October 2016_Equatorial Dynamics. A conversation between Joaquin and Matthew (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD).pdf
DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.13720.08960)(see index page with all publications and their DOI’s)
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As part of the line of research published in this blog I have published several assessments looking into the mechanisms driving the atmospheric circulation at the North Hemisphere and I have even looked into how those mechanisms would explain the bipolar situation in ice cover between NH and SH.

The applications of the conclusions discussed and shared would not be of relevance if they could not have any significance in understanding the developments seen in our recent past, our present and our near future.

The line of research presented in this blog is based on monitoring Climatic developments  based on observations, as it does the Copernicus program and the Space and Meteorological agencies around the globe, so the methodology in itself is already being recognised as scientifically valid and worthy by its potential contribution.

Being this research carried out by one single scientist as a piece of independent research  (without economic or institutional support) brings restrictions as well as a kind of freedom which allows the exploration of completely out of the box approaches. Despite the limitations brought by not incorporating the feedback offered by a team work or the access to more complex tools for analysis or previous studies applying same approach, the assessments presented have been shown to be verified posteriorly by scientific publications.

Being myself a cautious methodologists with scientific training, I am aware of that such circumstance does not eliminate uncertainty over the analyses which I can perform over the current developments. However, the confirmation of previous assessments by the dynamics observed through the atmosphere in the recent years, increases the level of confidence to incorporate some conclusions (from those previous assessments), even though those assessments have not been verified yet by scientific publications in assessing the current state of atmospheric developments.

4-oct-2016-satellite-global

4 Oct 2016. NASA Terra.

The atmospheric developments seen in the last days have been marked strongly by two powerful storms in two opposite sides of the Equatorial belt. One at the West Pacific (Typhoon Chaba) and another one at the Caribbean (Hurricane Matthew). And yet those are not the deepest cyclonic events present in the NH.

chart-pmsl-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

Neither are the ones expressing more power (volume/energy) when compared with the cyclonic situation over the North Atlantic and Pacific basins. And yet, these two are the ones concentrating their energy in the closest volume of space threatening conditions over land.

chart-north-wind-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

Based on previous assessments is impossible to predict the exact path and behaviour which those cyclonic storms might follow and yet, based on previous assessments, what it is expected is that their behaviour and paths will become more erratic to predict.

Based on the line of research presented in this blog I am convinced on that Arctic perturbations at the Atlantic basin (warm intrusions over the Arctic and cold at mid-latitudes) are responsible for the genesis of Tropical Systems due to alterations over the ITCZ. From there, the behaviour and paths followed by them would also be driven by more Arctic perturbations (combination of warm intrusions at the North Pacific and North Atlantic and cold at lower latitudes) inducing changes in pressure located all around their path, in front and behind their movement. At least these are part of my interpretations from my observations. There might be experts with a different analysis.

20161005-1500-multisat-ir-stitched-global-x

20161005-1800-12-dmsp_anomaly-tropics_atlbasin atlantic-basin-5-oct-2016

The models being published (spagheti) showcase the possibility of seeing the storm Matthew moving in a circle or loopback.

10-06-16-matthew-18z-spaghetti-plots

Link to .kmz file is here if you want to look at it in Google Earth yourself.

forecast-matthew-7-oct-2016

What concerns to my research is the resilience of the storm to dissipate its energy, and I am considering not only the conditions at tropospheric level but also at higher altitudes.

In the previous post in my blog I pointed out that the equator has shown to be warmed up at 50hPa.

temp50hpa-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd-www_diegofdezsevilla_wordpress_com

Altogether it will reduce the differential in the gradients of energy between the storm and its surroundings reducing the dissipation rate of its energy, allowing for it to hover keeping momentum as we have seen with other storms moving for days over the Atlantic. But also, it might coalesce with Nicole, something which nobody has talked about so it might not be possible… right?

matthew-7-oct-2016-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd radar-precipitation-7-oct-2016-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

A Conversation Between Joaquin and Matthew

The conditions surrounding their development share patterns and atmospheric conditions

15_16-sept-28-2016-polar-vortex-and-jet-stream-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

And those patterns and conditions have been previously addressed in this research

North Hemispheric circulation Atlantic 23 May 2016 by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

September 8, 2015 A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla).
January 13, 2016 Atmospheric Dynamics And Shapes (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
September 14, 2016 Between Global Cooling and Global Warming There Is “Global Mixing” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.)

Eumetsat Natural Colour Diego FdezSevilla

(UPDATE and Follow-Up 10 Oct 2016)

temp-50hpa-noaa-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd-www_diegofdezsevilla_wordpress_com

ht-200hpa-anom-noaa-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd-www_diegofdezsevilla_wordpress_com

Hurricane Matthew Recap. Weather Channel.

Published Oct 10 2016 10:59 AM EDT
weather.com

Matthew formed from a tropical wave that pushed off the African coast in late September. That tropical wave was dubbed Invest 97L just southwest of the Cape Verde Islands on Sept. 25.

Matthew formed near the Windward Islands on Sept. 28, 2016.

It went on to leave a path of destruction from the Caribbean to the Southeast U.S.

On Oct. 9, 2016, Matthew finally moved away from the U.S. coastline and became post-tropical.

Super Typhoon Chaba Recap

By Jon Erdman
Published Oct 5 2016 08:21 AM EDT
weather.com
chaba-3oct16-himawari-night-diego-fdez-sevilla-phd

Typhoon Chaba 3-oct-16 Satellite himawari

Chaba intensified to a super typhoon for a time on Oct. 3. The U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimated maximum sustained winds had reached 145 knots, roughly 165 mph, the equivalent of a Category 5 tropical cyclone at that time.

Wind gusts up to 134 mph (59.7 meters per second) were clocked on the Japanese island of Kume as the eastern eyewall passed through late Monday night, local time.

Chaba is only the third Category 5 equivalent super typhoon to track within 65 nautical miles of Kume Island, in records dating to the 1960s, and is the strongest on record, there.

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Altogether, the body of work which represents the line of research presented in this blog is composed by 165 pieces, covering data analyses and conceptual discussions. All those different discussions and assessments presented here build together a single concept. The format applied is the result of making a big effort trying to apply simplistic approaches with the aim to allow a multidisciplinary access. Since the topics treated in my publications have implications for many sectors in the academic and not academic world, with the aim of allowing my research for open review, there is also the objective of allowing access to a multisectorial and multidisciplinary audience sharing interest.

Diego Fdez-Sevilla Ph.D.

For a more profound discussion over my assessments and analyses as well as constructive feedback, please use my email d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com.

My agenda is simple, I am in transition looking for either funding to grow the research published in this blog or for a job position in any field in which my assets are valued. Behind my research there is nothing more, nothing else than to showcase my capabilities doing what I like, research. I am a methodologist. I don´t look at the color of the result obtained, only at the suitability of the method and the coherence of the result. As I have said before, if I am wrong on my assessments and conclusions, it will be better for all, and my work would showcase my capabilities anyway. A CV shines the goals obtained by anyone, but by publishing here my research, I expose myself and my work to public judgement. There is a difference between being naive and raw. If you see the difference you will understand better my work and my personal position.

The aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. So any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time of at least a month from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found refuting the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.

In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will help me in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.

Perspective

(This post is part of a more complex piece of independent research. I don´t have founding, political agenda or publishing revenues from visits. Any scientist working in disciplines related with the topics that I treat in my blog knows how to judge the contribution that my work could potentially add to the state of knowledge. Since I am in transition looking for a position in research, if you are one of those scientists, by just acknowledging any value you might see from my contribution, would not only make justice to my effort as independent researcher, but ultimately, it will help me to enhance my chances to find a position with resources to further develop my work.

I believe that the hypothesis that I have presented in previous posts in this blog (here, here and here) could help to understand present and possible future scenarios in atmospheric circulation. However, this is an assessment based on observation which needs to be validated throughout open discussion and data gathering. So please feel free to incorporate your thoughts and comments in a constructive manner.

If you feel like sharing this post I would appreciate to have a reference about the place or platform, by private or public message, in order for me to have the opportunity to join the debate and be aware of the repercussion which might generate d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

This work is protected under Intellectual Property laws licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.)

Since October 2013 I have been publishing pieces of research studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.

Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License,  WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.

More assessments presenting chronologically the line of research published in this blog can be accessed in the category Framework and Timeline.

For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out):

About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Data policy The products processed by "Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD" are made available to the public for educational and/or scientific purposes, without any fee on the condition that you credit "Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD" as the source. Copyright notice: © Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD 2013-2019 orcid: orcid.org/0000-0001-8685-0206 and the link to its source at diegofdezsevilla.wordpress or permanent DOI found at Reearchgate. Should you write any scientific publication on the results of research activities that use Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD products as input, you shall acknowledge the Diego Fdez-Sevilla's PhD Project in the text of the publication and provide an electronic copy of the publication (d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com). If you wish to use the Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD products in advertising or in any commercial promotion, you shall acknowledge the Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Project and you must submit the layout to Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD for approval beforehand (d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com). The work here presented has no economic or institutional support. Please consider to make a donation to support the means for making sustainable the energy, time and resources required. Also any sponsorship or mentoring interested would be welcome. Intellectual Property This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! For those publications missing at the ResearchGate profile vinculated with this project DOIs can be generated on demand by request at email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com. **Author´s profile: Born in 1974. Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my work previous to 2013 as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After 12 years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, in 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my own line of research. In the current competitive scenario, in order to demonstrate my capacities instead of just moving my cv waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I decided to invest my energy and time in opening my own line of research sharing it in this blog. In March 2017 the budget reserved for this project has ended and its weekly basis time frame discontinued until new forms of economic and/or institutional support are incorporated into the project. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this platform and at LinkedIn has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my achievements and that the Intellectual Property Rights generated with the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in similar lines of research. **Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome as well as any approach exploring professional opportunities.** In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2019, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects, don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access and DOIs found at the Framework and Timeline page and ResearchGate. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2018. Filling in or/and Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/ ***
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20 Responses to Equatorial Dynamics. A conversation between Joaquin and Matthew (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

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  16. Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. says:
    September 11, 2017 at 18:56

    Pdf available at Researchgate File name: October 2016_Equatorial Dynamics. A conversation between Joaquin and Matthew (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD).pdf
    DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.13720.08960
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/319630322_Equatorial_Dynamics_A_conversation_between_Joaquin_and_Matthew_by_Diego_Fdez-Sevilla_PhD

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  17. Pingback: Statistical Significance and The Scary Side of Being Mild (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

  18. Pingback: Tropical Cyclones under a New Climatic Scenario (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

  19. Pingback: Arctic Warming as a Result of Convective Forcing by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD | Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

  20. Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. says:
    July 17, 2019 at 23:15

    17 July 2019. Recall and Follow-up at LinkedIn:
    Diego Fernandez Sevilla, Ph.D.
    Biologist, Aerobiologist and Environmental Analyst orcid.org/0000-0001-8685-0206 (diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com)
    3h •
    Recap 2016. “The atmospheric developments seen in the last days have been marked strongly by two powerful storms in two opposite sides of the Equatorial belt. One at the West Pacific (named Falcon) and another one at the Caribbean (named Barry). And yet those were not the deepest cyclonic events triggering extreme weather events present in the NH”. Based on previous analyses shared in my line of research this is a situation showing the progression over a pattern. The singular strengh and behaviour of these two cyclones are less organised than those found in 2016, however, the strength missing in these two localised events is found spread over the whole hemisphere when looked at the precipitation and wind records from Finland to Chile. And beyond, even liquid rain at 0degrees over the Arctic. This is my interpretation of current dynamics as an evolution of a previously discussed dynamic. The energy contained by the atmosp shows wider in location and earlier in time. Agree? Full index of analyses at diegofdezsevilla.wordpress .com and researchgate orcid .org/0000-0001-8685-0206

    In relation to such assessment I have recalled the attention over previous analyses discussing the behaviour of the equatorial belt in relation with the developments at tropical latitudes and altogether linked with Arctic circulation as part of a global scale pattern. I hope that some people will share their feedback on this.
    July 2019 Water Vapour distribution
    https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6555472249384689664
    Recall:
    Statistical significance. The Scary Side of Being Mild (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) Oct 2017 DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.21934.61767
    https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6555781358524915713
    RECAP: September 8, 2015 A Climate “Between Waters” (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD). DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1697.5847
    https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6554098339439267840
    May 23, 2018, Convective Forcing Dominates Atmospheric Circulation NH (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.23043.20002
    https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6552261716535762944
    June 29, 2018 Seasonal Transitions under a New Climatic Scenario. by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18385.22881
    https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6549357726621851648

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