Atmospheric Dynamics And Shapes (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)


Atmospheric Dynamics And Shapes In Atmospheric Dynamics (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

(The formatting works better in a desktop full site view. Registered at ResearchGate with DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.35973.65765

meteosat-natural_overlay-vector-overlay 8 Jan 2016

8th January 11.00 UTC. Image from Eumetsat

By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. CV english and español. Resume. Interdisciplinary Skills applied in the line of research presented.- Index for all analyses published. – Shares and Feedback at LinkedIn

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This image from Eumetsat shows in a nicely way how two masses of air of different density interact giving the shape of a mushroom. Sure you have seen this shape in many other places, when you serve a drop or milk into coffee, when you breath out some steam into cold air in winter… it also happens when barriers like tissues exudate aqueous substances through pores, like your skin or in pollen grains. In this case, North America is blowing air into the ear of Europe.

Eumetsat calls the technique used in this image Natural Colour. The Natural Colour RGB (Red, Green, Blue) makes use of three solar channels: NIR1.6, VIS0.8 and VIS0.6. In this colour scheme vegetation appears greenish because of its large reflectance in the VIS0.8 channel (the green beam) compared to the NIR1.6 (red beam) and VIS0.6 (blue beam) channels. Water clouds with small droplets have large reflectance at all three channels and hence appear whitish, while snow and ice clouds appears cyan because ice strongly absorbs in NIR1.6 (no red). Bare ground appears brown because of the larger reflectance in the NIR1.6 than at VIS0.6, and the ocean appears black because of the low reflectance in all three channels.

Even though the shape resembles somehow the mushroom shape coming from an atomic explosion,  in atmospheric circulation this shape has different interpretations from what it happens in an atomic blast. We have to keep in mind that even though this image shows a 2D pattern, there is a three dimensional interaction in altitude between masses of air with different densities. Rayleigh-Taylor Instabilities play a key role in this image, altogether with rotation and kinetic energy as the main factors. A subject which can be studied with complex maths but also intuitively understanding some basic concepts.

But what really does it means for weather? See the following video from the Met Office.

Now we can look at the temperature for those masses of air moving in the satellite image. The Airmass product is an RGB (Red, Green, Blue) composite based upon data from infrared and water vapour channels from the SEVIRI instrument. It is designed and tuned to monitor the distribution of different air masses and evolution of cyclones, in particular rapid cyclogenesis, jet streaks and PV (potential vorticity) anomalies. Due to the incorporation of the water vapour and ozone channels, its usage at highest satellite viewing angles is limited. The Airmass RGB is composed from data from a combination of the SEVIRI WV6.2, WV7.3, IR9.7 and IR10.8 channels.

meteosat-airmass Eumetsat Diego Fdez-Sevilla

8th January. Image from Eumetsat

Northwestern Spain faces flooding rain this weekend

By Courtney Spamer, Meteorologist. January 9, 2016; 6:10 AM ET

The combination of a wet start to 2016 and more rain to follow this weekend has those in northwestern Spain on alert for flooding problems this weekend.

A pair of cold fronts will bring persistent rain to Galicia, Castile y Leon, Asturias and Cantabria this weekend. The rain will pour down heavily at times.

“This weekend, rainfall amounts of 25-75 mm (1-3 inches) will be widespread across northwestern Spain,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys said. “But locally higher amounts up to 130 mm (about 5 inches) are also possible.” The highest rainfall totals and greatest risk for flooding will be in Galicia.

Accordingly with what it was expected severe flooding was predicted and indeed occurred in the NorthWestern part of the Iberian peninsula. In particular, Galicia is the region above Portugal in the Northwest of Spain where actually I am located. Not only I have seen rain in high quantities, and strong winds. It also surprised me to see lightings in January.

It has been reported amounts of 60L/m2 and wind gusts above 140 Km/h. The following video shows images from National TV news report in spanish published the 9th Jan 2016. Also many problems have raised in northern parts of Portugal due to this intrusion, and it comes to add more flooding issues to those suffered in December in UK.

Author comments

Very often we get trapped under the latest developments and there is a tendency to replace old information with new, more exuberant news. This constant replacement of “old” information with “new” alters the perception of linearity since it cuts any continuous momentum by generating a sense of seeing the new, the most recent as the more important and the focus of all attention.

I want to add some perspective here, with this article, over the significance of the events generating floods over Western Europe between December and January 2015/16. In order to asses the implications of such phenomena it is important to consider the inertial momentum that we are living in the developments of our atmospheric weather events, from considering each one independently to a continuous whole. (see more)

Issues related with severe flooding over western Europe, such as those we have seen already in the winter 2015/16, have been seen and discussed about the winter 2013/14.

See the following news report from euronews Published the 10th feb. 2014 claiming that 2014 was turning out to be the wettest English Winter in 250 years.

Similarly for California, EEUU March 2014

Past and Present

If we consider the recent weather events as an occurrence independent from inertial momentum in our global changing environment we might just have enough justification by looking at the SST recorded at the Equatorial Pacific. In that way we can justify this anomaly in sea surface temperatures as the major factor shaping atmospheric events.

However, if we consider the present atmospheric phenomenons as part of a continuous movement and we compare them with those seen since at least winter 2013/14 and winter 2014/15, I believe that there is a high probability of that there is not a new shape in the pattern followed due to Pacific SST but a common pattern throughout the last 3 years which only changes in frequency and intensity.

This approach releases ENSO from being a dominant feature driving atmospheric circulation and gives to it a subsidiary  role. From my research since 2013 over climatic developments, I strongly believe that the main driver in atmospheric circulation are the properties defining the thermal contrast between mid-latitudes and polar circulation. Hence, the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream dictates the behaviour of the circulation in our atmosphere. And localized perturbations, like the sign of the ENSO, would only contribute to the frequency and intensity of the weather events generated due to the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream. Behaviour which is ultimately defined by the composition of the atmosphere and the subsequent GHGs involved.

As I said in a different post, I believe that the behaviour of the atmosphere leads and the rest of the mediums follow. An increase in SST at the Pacific would induce more water vapour in the atmosphere, but its distribution and release will be defined by the conditions and behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream, which it has been behaving erratically with and without positive ENSO.

ENSO in contrast

Since October 2013 I have been studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies. The whole index for all the analyses published can be found at the Timeline/Home pages.

Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at publications addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Feedback is always welcomed.

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The Original publication is from January 13, 2016. I have  incorporated an Update 6th Feb 2019 with an Addendum contextualising arguments and conclusions from the whole research since 2013 to date. (Original publication January 13, 2016 can be found in pdf at Researchgate Registered with DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.35973.65765

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February 2019 Addendum

(Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD_Jan 2019 Report on Climate and Atmosphere. Filling In or Finding Out Gaps Around. Framework and Timeline February 2019 DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.30663.75682)

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Since 2013 I have been carrying out a line of research trying to highlight the role of biotic systems in the thermodynamic behaviour of our planet so called climate. Here I present excerpts from previous publications highlighting the key arguments and conclusions addressed to date. See full index at the Home/Timeline page.

From the publication A New Pattern in Atmospheric Circulation drives towards an “unpredictable” New Climatic Scenario (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)
Posted on  Registered in pdf with DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.31673.62567

Our Planet is made from the combination of all the organisms in a given area and the abiotic elements which affect them. An ecosystem is an open system because it can exchange energy or materials with other ecosystems. Earth is a closed system with respect to nutrients and chemicals, but open with respect to energy. There is an underestimated synergistic relationship between biogeochemical energy flows and those identified in weather patterns and atmospheric dynamics. For too many years it has been considered that the Earth is a garden populated by “elements” offering colourful pleasure and comfort. In fact, the biochemical processes undertaken by our ecosystems function as the most advanced piece of technology known by Humans, responsible for the quality of our air, waters and soils, as much as the sole and unique mechanism capable of interacting with the thermodynamic pressure imposed by the constant exposure of the planet to Sun’s radiation. Until we see the real function of biological processes as climate regulators we will not realise in how much trouble we are.

In research what it is relevant it is not always what it is New, but what it doesn´t get old. One stage of research comes when looking into offering something New; New data, New interpretations, New methods, making “the News”, being the First … And then, once the “New” has been offered, it is all about confirmation, re-evaluation, validation, review and application. In my line of research, at one stage I have offered New interpretations on climatic developments adopting New points of view addressing New synergistic interactions delivering New Conclusions and Implications in weather patterns, atmospheric circulation and biotic performance. In a following stage I have re-shared all those previous “New assessments” to be contrasted against real time developments been unfolded in the next years. In 2014 I was told by a lead scientist in climatic developments Prof. Jennifer Francis: “The topic you’ve written about is extremely complicated and many of your statements have not yet been verified by peer-reviewed research.” I was challenged for a deeper understanding of the state of the research, knowledge of atmospheric dynamics and analyses supporting my statements. (Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Reply to Prof. Jennifer Francis (February 2015) ResearchgateDOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1975.7602/1)

After 200+ analyses 2014-19, have I done enough?

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Research Framework: Weather, Climate, Energy, Environment and Man

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Climate variability and energy balance. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Registered At ResearchGate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.33706.11203 November 27, 2013
October 21, 2014 New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4859.3440
November 14, 2014 Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2500.0488
February 10, 2015 (UPGRADED 24th March2015) Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1975.7602/1
May 7, 2015 Domesticating Nature. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Rsearchgate  DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36812.51848
March 10, 2016 Tangled in Words. Atmospheric Dynamics, Stefan Boltzmann Calculations and Energy Balance (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.28443.57120
April 19, 2018 Climate, Weather and Energy. Using a Climatic Regime to explain Weather Events by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhDResearch DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.27923.58406

The question  driving the whole debate on Climatic Deviations from “a Normal”, or Climatic Drift, focus most of the methodologies on temperature.

However I have followed a different approach in my analyses looking at Gradients of Energy in all its forms. That is why in 2014 I offered my thoughts as a theory of practical applications addressing variations in the gradients of energy found in the atmosphere.

Energy fuels the work done by warm masses of air displacing colder masses of air in their path. That increases mixing patterns generating anomalies in temperature.

“Behind an increase in the amount of work carried out by masses of air there is an increase in the energy fuelling such dynamics.”

 Energy can only be transferred, not created or destroyed. So more work means more energy in circulation. More energy in circulation can only be sustained by a substance carrying it. Either if we consider that the energy driving anomalies comes from the Sun or from the Oceansthe carrier has to be in the atmosphere in order for the energy to produce work. And the body loosing heat cools down.

A corridor of wind over the Arctic is triggered by a conversion of Temperature into work, convection and advection, which are the result of mixing masses of air. As it was published in previous analyses, such Trans-Arctic connection between Atlantic and Pacific Basins is part of a pattern increasing the mixing ratio between masses of air otherwise separated by thermal compartmentalization, like the Polar Jet Stream. An increase in the dispersion of energetic forms have different outcomes, one of which it would be a temporary reduction in the average temperature resultant for the mixing between Cold (Arctic) and warm (Mid-Latitude) masses of air as well as in altitude (SSW).

Subsequently, “temperature” is less reliable than looking at “work” seen even in the “mild” events.

(see ref- Statistical Significance. The Scary Side of Being Mild (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.21934.61767

In the framework presented throughout the line of research published in this blog (and researchgate) it has been considered “Climate” as being defined by the amount of energy free to do work. In other words, energy free to promote weather events. Accordingly, in my research I define Climate by the amount and state of energy in circulation, and Weather by the use of this energy.(ref)

Consequently, with the definition applied for Climate and Weather, my definition of Climate Drift is:

“the deviation from equilibrium of the conditions allowing the perpetuity of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in a micro and macro ecosystem. This situation can be due to changes in any component of the ecosystem playing a synergistic effect over the rest. And the causes can be either a change in the magnitude of the already implemented forces in place, changes in the directionality or rates in the flows of energy pre-established OR/AND the impact suffered by the incorporation of new components/forces and energy sinks or sources in any part of the system interfering with the previously established order and balance.”

In my assessments I have defended that the increase in the energy pool at mid-latitudes would ultimately create an scenario with an overcharged atmosphere. That would reduce the contrasts with which to create and maintain stability in the structure required to condense energy in singular events, like hurricanes. Giving more relevance to the single contrast between Ocean/continental masses. However, the opening of the Arctic circulation through a weak Jet Stream would reduce the pressure in the containment absorbing the condensation of energy at mid-latitudes, expanding into a new volume.

Accordingly, hadley circulation gets affected (see also) generating new patterns of turbulence at the ITCZ as well as it gets influenced Arctic mixing zones with lower latitudes.

In this scenario TCs are generated under an increase in the mixing ratio of an unstable atmospheric circulation dominated by kinetic energy transferred by water vapour thanks to GHGs, and immersed in an overcharged atmosphere with no place where to diffuse its energy, becoming resilient as long as they stay over the ocean. So they endure like a piece of an ice rock in cold water.

About Sea Surface Temperatures, my assessments take SST as subsequent conditions driven by wind shear. So the interaction between masses of air in circulation allows or inhibits SST developments. Once the scenario is built on SST this becomes a “battle field” conditioning the subsequent interaction between the following masses of air and the characteristics of the “grounds” where the game will be played (sort of speak). Like the effect of the ice conditions in an ice hockey match.

El Niño is an event which happens in a very small portion of the Earth, it is related to the temperature of a very thin layer of the Ocean in depth, a small percentage of the area occupied by the whole Oceanic masses, and even smaller when it is integrated in the multidimensional space combining Ocean and Atmosphere.

Biological productivity amazonia atmmospheric circulation DiegoFdezSevilla

It is kind of intriguing to think why it has been so easy to conclude that such small portion of the entire system is driving it as a whole. It is like considering that the flowering of plants drives the seasons. Similarly it could be said about using SST at the Arctic to justify altogether; the lack of ice, warmer temperatures at tropospheric level and even at stratospheric level. There is not enough energy in the SST of such small area as it is the Arctic to justify all those convective dynamics.

It can not surprise me enough the fact that there is a scientific agreement followed by theories such the Arctic Amplification and Stephan Boltzmann black body radiation, which focus on single locations as sources of energy triggering warming events. Arctic amplification focus the attention in the Arctic, and the absence of ice decreasing albedo, to justify the location for the source of energy warming the atmosphere in the Sea Surface Waters. And it does it even considering the absence of Solar radiation, which in itself discards any process of albedo absorbing and re-emitting energy. Accordingly with their theory, Arctic amplification suggests that Arctic circulation affects circulation at mid-latitudes, however, all the dynamics we see point in the opposite direction. Mid latitudinal forcing pushes against Arctic restrictions through the Jet Stream, displacing cold masses of air in their path, using water vapour as the carrier of the energy feeding convective motions.

Animations from previous publications:

Stephan Boltzmann relation describing radiative gradients of temperature rely entirely on an idealized body homogeneous in composition and even pressure. Such statement neglects the nature of the processes involved in the transference of energy found in the atmosphere where there are simultaneously three states of matter, gaseous, liquid and solid, numerous compounds different in molecular composition and behaviour, as well as an active thermodynamic system made of heterogeneous cells containing independent microsystems of entropy, interacting in a macro system out from equilibrium. (more here).

So opposite from a black body, the distribution of radiation and heat across an heterogeneous system delivers an uneven distribution marked by the nature of the connections built between micro and macro systems, ecosystems and abiotic systems, gaseous, liquid, solid and multi-estate systems. It becomes evident that there is not a distribution of temperatures following a gradient defined by Stephan-Boltzmann estimations because the transference of energy is heterogeneous due to the heterogeneous composition and disposition of the matter states in the planetary system. By understanding those limitations we can identify the expansion of energetic pulses throughout the atmosphere avoiding focusing the attention over the temperatures and instead, focusing the attention into identifying the “work” expressed by the dynamics in motion, either as forms of precipitation, trans-latitudinal transportation of matter (Water Vapour), transference of radiation (SSW), discharges of electricity and displacements of cold and heat waves.

In my research I have been very persistent trying to highlight how much relevance it is given to a small area in size and depth driving global circulation as it is the SST at the Eq Pacific while an area of the same size and even more depth could be identified in the Amazon or by the change suffered in Land cover by agriculture at global scale.

biological-productivity_amazonia-and-atmospheric-circulation-diego-fdezsevilla

 

Biological productivity amazonia atmmospheric circulation DiegoFdezSevilla

Land use change Compilation by Diego FdezSevilla Publication Domesticating Nature

We have to consider that SST are measured in the 5 or less m of the Ocean meanwhile Forests can occupy more than 15 meters in depth. And both are sources of the latent heat carried out in the atmosphere which fuels convective dynamics dominating intrusions over the Arctic.

Among those analyses published in my line of research some time ago studying the impact from changes in Land cover over atmospheric dynamics:

  • April 23, 2015 Matching Features Between Land Surface and Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20035.30247. https://wp.me/p403AM-xK
  • June 10, 2016 The Butterfly Effect on Arctic Circulation. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) https://wp.me/p403AM-12H

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Discussion

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There have been some assessments showing major discrepancies between the line of research presented here and main stream scientific coverage. The assessments are about the concept of climate drift, the link between the Polar Vortex and tropospheric circulation, the role played by SST and the ENSO, the dynamics explaining abnormal Arctic Warming and sea ice cover,  the synergistic implications from the biotic component and the scientific methodology applied.

Polar Vortex

November 14, 2014 Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD)  Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2500.0488
October 25, 2016 Another Heat Wave Another Polar Vortex II … Broken (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, Ph.D.) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.13418.93124

Climate Drift

October 21, 2014 (Updated 22/Dec/14) New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4859.3440
February 10, 2015 (UPGRADED 24th March2015) Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1975.7602/1
Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Drift. Are we there yet? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) July 2, 2015
September 2, 2016 Climate Drift, The True Meaning of Things and the Drift of Those. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)
February 6, 2018 Feb 2018. Climate Drifts and The Scientific Method of Waiting 30 Years. Follow up on previous assessments by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18823.09122

Arctic Amplification

November 17, 2016 Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Absorption (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)
December 17, 2016 Orbital Seasonality vs Kinetic Seasonality. A Change Triggered from Changing the Order of The Factors (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20129.81760

SST and ENSO

October 16, 2015 SST Anomalies and Heat Waves. Are They Not All Just Heat Displacements? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.23741.05608
December 11, 2015 Could It Be El Niño The New “Wolf” Coming? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.3238.2801
March 22, 2016 Pacific atmospheric dynamics with and without a positive ENSO (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)  Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1968.5521
June 23, 2017 “Seasonal Outlook. June 2017 (By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25428.91528

The Biotic Synergy

June 26, 2014 Biological Productivity and its Influence on Cloud Formation. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)
December 22, 2014 Biological Productivity, Amazonia and Atmospheric Circulation. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.10771.99363
May 7, 2015 Domesticating Nature. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Rsearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.36812.51848
April 22, 2016 Plant an Idea and Then a Tree… But Which Ones? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  Reasearchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.3977.0489
March 3, 2017 Thermodynamic Ecosystems by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.32238.10566
May 26, 2017 Review. CO2 Makes Headlines To Grow Like Trees, Shaping Different Forests Offering Different Views (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.16286.33601

The Scientific Method

The scope of Environmental Science and scientific thought. From Thought-driven to Data-driven, from Critical Thinking to Data Management. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla)  Researchgate: DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2007.0161 June 26, 2015
Atmospheric Circulation and Climate Drift. Are we there yet? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) July 2, 2015
March 10, 2017 Modelling the “Model” and the Observer (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.17558.04169
February 6, 2018 Feb 2018. Climate Drifts and The Scientific Method of Waiting 30 Years. Follow up on previous assessments by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Pdf at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18823.09122

Teleconnections

January 20, 2017 Climate and Indexes. A dashboard of Confusion. (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD) ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.25016.96007
April 19, 2018 Climate, Weather and Energy. Using a Climatic Regime to explain Weather Events by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhDResearch DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.27923.58406

In the line of research presented in this blog it has been discussed the impact over energy flows derived from solar activity, land use and surface, atmospheric composition of GHGs and aerosols as well as the water cycle.

Based on the previous observations and assessments presented in this line of research, the state of the stratospheric circulation at both poles suggest that there is no need to have sudden warming process at stratospheric level in order to have a broken polar vortex. Such scenario was observed in October 2016 by the configuration of the polar vortex split at the NH without a stratospheric localised strong warming meanwhile the South pole was suffering a Sudden stratospheric warming without splitting the polar vortex.

But also, neither is required a broken polar Vortex in order to have displacements of cold polar masses of air into lower latitudes. Such configuration comes from the convective forcing triggered at lower altitudes by warm masses of air moving towards the poles in latitude and altitude.

A process of convection and advection moving warm masses of air towards the poles displacing cold masses of air in their way moving into Arctic circulation.

This behaviour can be explained by considering the thermal properties of the atmosphere as a system capable of carrying energy across higher latitudes and altitudes without dissipation and in enough concentration to affect the configuration of the polar vortex from the bottom up. Such capacity to keep momentum across latitudes and altitude conserving thermal energy can only be explained by an enhancement in the thermal properties of the atmosphere, which are directly related with its composition.

Throughout my line of research I suggest that there is one approach which is able to unify all events in a single principle. The incorporation of energy into the atmosphere is shaping the atmospheric dynamics we see affecting the behaviour of currents, storms, rain rates, lightning events, wind regimes and temperature variations.

The atmosphere might have trespassed a tipping point absorbing energy making to tremble its previous structural configuration in Latitude and Altitude.

The constant contact of warm masses of air from Low and Mid-Latitudes with those from polar latitudes has worn off the strength of the Polar Jet Stream. Such circumstance has allowed the intrusion of warm masses of air into higher latitudes and altitudes, increasing atmospheric turbulence. These convective intrusions are fuelled by the energy carried within water vapour, inducing the displacements  of other colder masses of air in altitude and latitude, increasing the mixing ratio between otherwise compartmentalized parts of the atmosphere.

Such circumstance has allowed the atmosphere to spread the energy carried by water vapour from Mid Latitudes into Polar Latitudes (Arctic latitudes), being able of holding more energy than before since it is not dissipated into their surroundings when moving across latitudes.

This scenario has induced a trans-Arctic interconnectivity between oceanic basins whichhas happened with and without the need for a strong sign of the ENSO. Therefore, this would suggest that exchange of masses of air between the Mid low latitudes with the Arctic, through the Polar Jet Stream, is the dominant driver in atmospheric circulation defining the behaviour of equatorial winds. But also, the configuration of the NH Polar Vortex.

Altogether the research here presented points to a new scenario in atmospheric dynamics in which the Arctic circulation, previously isolated from Subtropical influence by the Polar Jet Stream, has become open to be involved in the atmospheric dynamics for the Pacific and Atlantic basins. This new interconnection will affect the atmospheric dynamics around the whole North Hemisphere. But also, by being our atmosphere a close system, subsidiary, such alteration would affect dynamics at the Equator and due to symmetric compensation between Hemispheres, moreover into the Southern Hemisphere.

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The Anthropogenic Link


As a biologist myself I find intriguing to see that our environment is predominately not described in biological terms.

Einstein made it very clear, our environment is a relative proportion of free energy and fixed energy in mass. There is one process in our system fixing E into mass, and one releasing E from mass. The “relative efficiency” of both processes is what is defining the behaviour of our thermodynamic environment.

There is an interference from human activities changing the composition and structure of the three phases of the environment:

  • solid; land cover and use affects albedo and changes in evapotranspiration rates due to biotic disruptions on wild population functionality,
  • the liquid phase through alterations over the water cycles, distribution of water bodies, and humidity of soils as well as affecting circulation patterns due to coastal deterioration and deformation, but also, indirectly due to alterations in the composition of the inert and biotic matter in the Oceans due to pollution and modifications in acidification and salinity related with atmospheric composition and thermal properties.
  • and gaseous phase due to alterations in the composition of the atmosphere from GHGs as well as aerosols, altogether affecting its thermodynamic behaviour.

The deviation from equilibrium of those conditions disrupt the perpetuation of an established symbiotic relationship between biotic and none biotic components in the micro and macro ecosystem.

The definitive link between human activities and atmospheric dynamics is under constant discussion since climatic developments are mainly approached from the field of physics.

However, the direct link between Anthropogenic activities and climatic developments are found in biological terms with thermodynamic implications:

Human activity has reduced CxHxOx compounds and increased free CxOx+HxOx.

Furthermore, anthropogenic activities release Energy from breaking structures (C-C) while biochemical processes assimilate energy fixing it into stable structures (CxHxOx).

Anthropogenic activity is simultaneously, releasing energy from a biochemically fixed state into the Planetary System’s Pool, at the same time that, it adds thermoactice compounds as CO2 and H2O. But furthermore, through this activity of constant transformational and processing, human activities are also debilitating the functionality of the biochemical processes capable of absorbing such perturbation, the endogenous ecosystems.

Einstein and his developments were mainly applied in physics due to the use that it was made of his work with the aim to manipulate energy in times of conflict, or to understand space. The equation is simple E=mc2. The language of physics has dominated the discussion over physical developments since then and it has been established as the logical translation of climatic developments. However, in the current times, the role of scientific understanding demands to move beyond the barriers of language, either between semantic cultural languages and between disciplines.

Being myself a Biologist involved in Atmospheric dynamics applying physics to explain such a complex subject as it is climatic evolution might seem like the tale of the child claiming that the Emperor has no clothes.

And yet, it seems to me evident that a thermodynamic system as it is our planet, can not scape from the most basic and powerful understanding of our contemporary scientific evolution. If E=MC2, and the anthropogenic activity is increasing the transformation of M into Energy in the system (from burning Mass from fossils and vegetable components, as well as by liberating other forms of energy such as gravimetric in Dams, Solar, transformation of raw materials, etc,) such transformation rate will move the balance in the thermodynamic behaviour of the whole system, and the rate of such deviation from equilibrium will be related with the speed at which the transformation rate between E/M is performed: M>(c)2

________Conclusions_________

The conclusions reached after 17 years of experience analysing environmental synergies can be summarised as follows (all arguments have been covered throughout the publications found in this blog and my profile at researchgate. See main page/home for a full index):

1- Models confuse the science in which those are applied. Factions opposed in views will not come together by using models. And even there is no need for it. Darwin did not need an algorithm and a model to identify genetic evolution. The observational evidence was so strong that unified the scientific community. And evolution is a process comparable with climate, reacts to pressures.

2-Arctic Amplification takes an assumption open for discussion: “sea ice acts as a barrier for the heat transport from the ocean to the atmosphere.” Actually, sea ice acts as a barrier for the heat transport *from the atmosphere to the ocean. The line of research offered taking Arctic SST as responsible for warming processes is not considering the thermodynamics behind changes in phase (liquid/solid/gas) and the difference between condensible and not condensible GHGs. Heat moves between locations AND phases. SST warming the atmosphere would loose heat, thus forming ice.

3- Between global warming and global cooling there is global mixing

4- Anthropogenic link has reduced CxHxOx and increased CxOx+HxOx, albedo, …

March 23, 2017 Final Review in Progress. March 2017. From ENSO to Scientific Thinking by Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.  ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.33915.82726

The mere identification of seeing: numbers of trees decreased over 46% from wild ecosystems being affected through time due to agriculture, increased levels of urbanization, deforestation, same for soil degradation, decrease in O2 conc, and an increase in GHG, can not be left out of the equation when considering what it is and what it is not “natural variability”, and the future expected for our thermodynamic planetary system.

Our planet is getting fat on GHG, lacking O2, space to breath and capacity to fix and store energy. Biology integrates all components in an ecosystem, yet it is missing in climatology assessments.

The main conclusion from the present study researching synergistic interactions between all transformations seen over the Liquid, Gaseous and solid phases of our global Environment indicates that anthropogenic activity is forcing our environment into A System Becoming Dominated By Free Energy. (Registered at ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18509.13289)

The biotic component of our environmental system is the only one capable of interacting against thermodynamic entropy, against instability. And for as long as Human activity can not replicate such mechanisms in equilibrium with the resources consumed, it might be time to think about domesticating Human Activities instead of following the obsession for Domesticating Natural Behaviour and Geoengineer our Weather. 

_____________________________________________________

________Overall Conclusions________

An increase in the amount of energy being in “free” state means that kinetic processes will increasingly dominate thermodynamic processes, inducing a transition in our Seasonal and Climatic regimes from being driven by Orbital Positioning to be driven by more erratic Kinetic processes.

Examples of processes releasing ENERGY FROM ANTHROPOGENIC ACTIVITIES

From previous publication “Domesticating Nature” (2015)

Atmospheric Oxygen Levels

Atmospheric Oxygen Levels are Decreasing Oxygen levels are decreasing globally due to fossil-fuel burning. The changes are too small to have an impact on human health, but are of interest to the study of climate change and carbon dioxide. These plots show the atmospheric O2 concentration relative to the level around 1985. The observed downward trend amounts to 19 ‘per meg’ per year. This corresponds to losing 19 O2 molecules out of every 1 million O2 molecules in the atmosphere each year.

Scripps O2 Global Oxygen Measurements The Scripps O2 Program measures changes in atmospheric oxygen levels from air samples collected at stations around the world. This sampling network provides a global and hemispheric perspective on oxygen variability. The Scripps O2 Program is based at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at La Jolla, California and is under the direction of Professor Ralph Keeling.


_____________Imagery and Methodology_________

Nowadays, there are many divisions between disciplines due to the isolated nature of their specific language and methodologies. I might not use the right vocabulary for all the fields which I discuss, or the right data or the right reasoning. But when nobody is able to offer a consensus over what is going on, I wonder, what is right this days?.

The line of research presented in this blog describes a scenario where things happen for a reason, and where there are reasons for things to happen. No model offers that much. Meanwhile “reasons” explain probabilities, models use “probabilities” to let you figure out the reasons.

After leaving months, even years of time to expose my conclusions for public discussion and review, once those have no faced any criticism or arguments refuting their value, I create a pdf file and a DOI publishing them at my profile in Researchgate. In order to maintain their genuineness and legitimate innovative nature, I keep its original state so those can be compared with any copy made by any third party at any time. For your own references and review over its originality over time with respect to other publications via scientific papers and/or news reports, you can compare the publications at the blog and researchgate with the records archived:

____________________________________________________________

________2019 Research FOLLOW-UP ___________

In research what it is relevant it is not always what it is New, but what it doesn´t get old. One stage of research comes when looking into offering something New; New data, New interpretations, New methods, making “the News”, being the First … And then, once the “New” has been offered, it is all about confirmation, re-evaluation, validation, review and application. In my line of research, at one stage I have offered New interpretations on climatic developments adopting New points of view addressing New synergistic interactions delivering New Conclusions and Implications in weather patterns, atmospheric circulation and biotic performance. In a following stage I have re-shared all those previous “New assessments” to be contrasted against real time developments been unfolded in the next years. In 2014 I was told by a lead scientist in climatic developments Prof. Jennifer Francis: “The topic you’ve written about is extremely complicated and many of your statements have not yet been verified by peer-reviewed research.” I was challenged for a deeper understanding of the state of the research, knowledge of atmospheric dynamics and analyses supporting my statements.

Revisiting the theory of “Facing a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation” by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Reply to Prof. Jennifer Francis (February 2015) ResearchgateDOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.1975.7602/1

After 200+ analyses 2014-18, have I done enough?diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com

This year 2018/19 the progression of the climatic dynamics seen show to support the conclusions discussed throughout all the analyses performed in the line of research presented in this blog:

  •  The ENSO is not a driver of convective forcing over the NH,
  • Convective forcing from Mid-latitudinal towards the Arctic circulation has wear off the gradients of temperature generating a strong Polar Jet Stream.
  •  Arctic warming occurs through atmospheric intrusions from Mid Latitudes,
  • The collapse of the Polar Jet Stream has opened Arctic circulation to Mid-Latitudinal circulation intrusions allowing Trans-Arctic circulation between Pacific and Atlantic Basins.
  •  The global Temperature measured is the resultant of mixing patterns in the atmosphere,
  • Therefore an increase in mixing dynamics creates a pause in temperature raise,
  • An increase in mixing dynamics show an increase in convective forcing,
  • Convective forcing is the work resultant from an increase in atmospheric energy being incorporated in free state,
  • The incorporation and spread of energy in free state into the atmosphere is carried and released by water vapour
  • An increase of water vapour in atmospheric circulation requires an increase in the thermal capacity of the atmosphere
  • The process of enhancing the thermal capacity of the atmosphere comes by increasing the concentration of GHGs, conc of aerosols and land surface albedo.
  • Several processes carried out by human activityare linked with the previous assessment: human activity reduces the capacity of the biotic environment to fix energy from free state into inert state by reducing biochemical processing and storage (CxHxOx photosynthesis and biomass) and increases atmospheric concentrations of GHGs by releasing CO2 and H2O into the atmosphere. Also, land use and covertransformations increase albedo, industrial activities increase aerosols and the compartmentalization of water affects water cycles.
  • In a thermodynamic system the energetic pool is the sum of the amount of energy in free statecapable of doing work, and the energy fixed in an inert form as part of mass. The amount of energy in free state is proportional to the amount of energy fixed in inert form as mass (E=mc2). The release of energy from its inert form increases the amount of energy in free state to do work. Energy is not created, neither destroyed. The transformation of the three phases of the environment forced by human activities, gaseous (atmosphere), liquid (water cycle) and solid (land use and cover), increases the amount of energy in free state capable of promoting all forms of work; convective forcing, strong winds, solid and liquid precipitation, lightning, dust storms, heat waves, cold displacements, and ultimately, and increase in atmospheric mixing in altitude and across latitudes.

Throughut the Winter 2019, cold “and warm” dynamics at tropospheric and stratospheric levels have happened simultaneously. And if there is a progression it comes by seeing through the seasons warm temperatures moving north followed by a stratospheric Warming process which promotes a weak Polar Vortex configuration.

Despite all the theories available my interpretation is simple about what is happening, between global warming and global cooling we are living under a process of global mixing, promoted by an increase in the atmospheric energy pool, using water vapour as the carrier of such energetic extra thanks to an enhanced thermal capacity generated from increasing GHGs, Albedo and Aerosols. The origin of this imbalance in the energetic pool driving the thermodynamic system can be associated with changes in the composition, structure, location and concentration of the components integrating the Planetary system. Human activities can be associated with all those changes.


About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Data policy The products processed by "Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD" are made available to the public for educational and/or scientific purposes, without any fee on the condition that you credit "Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD" as the source. Copyright notice: © Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD 2013-2019 orcid: orcid.org/0000-0001-8685-0206 and the link to its source at diegofdezsevilla.wordpress or permanent DOI found at Reearchgate. Should you write any scientific publication on the results of research activities that use Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD products as input, you shall acknowledge the Diego Fdez-Sevilla's PhD Project in the text of the publication and provide an electronic copy of the publication (d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com). If you wish to use the Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD products in advertising or in any commercial promotion, you shall acknowledge the Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Project and you must submit the layout to Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD for approval beforehand (d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com). The work here presented has no economic or institutional support. Please consider to make a donation to support the means for making sustainable the energy, time and resources required. Also any sponsorship or mentoring interested would be welcome. Intellectual Property This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! For those publications missing at the ResearchGate profile vinculated with this project DOIs can be generated on demand by request at email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com. **Author´s profile: Born in 1974. Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my work previous to 2013 as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After 12 years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, in 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my own line of research. In the current competitive scenario, in order to demonstrate my capacities instead of just moving my cv waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I decided to invest my energy and time in opening my own line of research sharing it in this blog. In March 2017 the budget reserved for this project has ended and its weekly basis time frame discontinued until new forms of economic and/or institutional support are incorporated into the project. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this platform and at LinkedIn has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my achievements and that the Intellectual Property Rights generated with the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in similar lines of research. **Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome as well as any approach exploring professional opportunities.** In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2019, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects, don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access and DOIs found at the Framework and Timeline page and ResearchGate. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2018. Filling in or/and Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/ ***
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69 Responses to Atmospheric Dynamics And Shapes (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

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